Report: Omicron is much more contagious - Discussion on severity (1 Viewer)

[The General]

WH shifting message with Omicron

“The administration has sought to convey in appearances by the president and briefings with top officials that many Americans will be infected with Covid-19, but that those who are vaccinated have no reason to panic. “You can control how big an impact Omicron is going to have on your health,” Mr. Biden said. “We’re seeing Covid-19 cases among [the] vaccinated in workplaces across America, including here at the White House. But if you’re vaccinated and boosted, you are highly protected.”

 

[IvanKaramazov]

WH shifting message with Omicron

“The administration has sought to convey in appearances by the president and briefings with top officials that many Americans will be infected with Covid-19, but that those who are vaccinated have no reason to panic. “You can control how big an impact Omicron is going to have on your health,” Mr. Biden said. “We’re seeing Covid-19 cases among [the] vaccinated in workplaces across America, including here at the White House. But if you’re vaccinated and boosted, you are highly protected.”

Perfect IMO.

 

[jobarules]

Yep.  If I were sick, I would like to know if it was covid just so I know if I've had a prior infection.  Not a huge deal, but more information about my health history is better than less information about my health history.

Would you wait 4 hours on line to do so?

 

[unckeyherb]

Yep.  If I were sick, I would like to know if it was covid just so I know if I've had a prior infection.  Not a huge deal, but more information about my health history is better than less information about my health history.

Right, I am not sick at all but that doesn't mean I don't have Covid.  Knowing whether or not I have Covid seems like an obviously smart thing to do.

 

[The General]

Perfect IMO.

I tend to agree to an extent - acknowledging that Omicron with the vax and what we have learned isn't the same as last year. 

They need to continue to do a much better in preparation and start some big initiative or incentivize health care workers.

 

[Doug B]

Would you wait 4 hours on line to do so?

The long wait sucks, but it's not the default.

Going to get a public PCR test now ... the hospital cancelled my wife's surgery since she now has symptoms, and cancelled her scheduled pre-op PCR test that was scheduled for tomorrow. PCR test was cancelled because she is no longer on the schedule for a procedure.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Would you wait 4 hours on line to do so?

No.  

 

[The Commish]

Lack of available tests is a direct reflection on the companies who produce them and I sort of understand their position given how they were burned with H1N1 tests, but it should be obvious by now that what happened then isn't happening now.  When did it become the job of the federal government to tell these companies to be doing things a different way?  Seems pretty "socialist"-y to me.  Not a fan at all.  Our federal government's involvement here should be limited to a guarantee of X number of tests purchased AT MOST, but before that happens, the states need to answer for why they haven't spent the funds already allocated to them to get tests out to the areas that need them most.  If they show they are out of funds (highly unlikely) then the federal government should come in and provide tests.  The only other thing the federal government should do is perhaps provide funds via DPA or EMA (whatever it's called...lost track) if it's allowed.  We mentioned doing this with masks/PPE etc and that's probably easier to do with those kinds of things, but if there are companies who can switch to help with testing packages then the fed gov't should incentivize that if existing companies don't want to do it.  

This doesn't seem all that complicated but there seem to be a bunch of bad talking points colliding.  

 

[jobarules]

No.  

Me neither. During XMas break we were close contacts on XMas day. 2 days later my wife develop a cough and sinus infection that lingered for a week. My son developed a one day fever a few days later. I developed no symptoms. I would have loved to known if they (or I) had COVID but unfortunately that was a non-starter as we had no at-home test kits and the lines for tests were 4-6 hours from people I know who got tested. So now, we'll never know.

 

[(HULK)]

Fauci said the peak will likely be the third week of January. It might be sooner at this rate.  They were saying some parts of the country haven't even really been hit with it yet. 

The no available testing is killing us too. 3-6 day waits from all the people I talk to.

I am hopeful that my county (Montgomery County, MD) has hit peak now. Well, at least the numbers for today and yesterday are about the same (around 1,750 cases per 100K per week). 2 days isn't enough to be sure it's peak though.

What is crazy is that number was just 58 people per 100K per week back on 12/13/21. Not even a month ago.

 

[(HULK)]

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/32930584/data-shows-asymptomatic-individuals-not-spreading-covid-19-nfl-chief-medical-officer-says

I don't buy that for a second.

This implies that ONLY symptomatic people spread Covid. So, the million of people infected right now, they were ALL infected by people who had symptoms and then chose to not stay home?

I mean, our country is full of first class jerks, but I can't believe that asymptomatic spread isn't happening and happening frequently.

Also, I'm sure the NFL has no rea$on$ for wanting to pretend that a$ymptomatic $pread isn't real, right?

 

[Doug B]

Would you wait 4 hours on line to do so?

The long wait sucks, but it's not the default.

There and back yesterday was about two hours. That includes about 40 minutes of driving.

Today, there was only a few cars in line at the public testing site. There and back in just under an hour.

 

[Doug B]

I developed no symptoms.

Not a joke: You should get in touch with whatever COVID researchers are working in the NYC area. Your apparent immunity (or lack of symptoms?) is something of a medical anomaly. It would be enlightening for researchers to find people like you and see if they can determine what's preventing you from presenting symptomatic COVID.

 

[jobarules]

Not a joke: You should get in touch with whatever COVID researchers are working in the NYC area. Your apparent immunity (or lack of symptoms?) is something of a medical anomaly. It would be enlightening for researchers to find people like you and see if they can determine what's preventing you from presenting symptomatic COVID.

I often joke with people that I have super immunity. Last I got my antibodies tested was in Feb 2021 and I had none (my wife had COVID Nov 2020). Its possible I have had an asymptomatic case since then. Supposedly 40% of cases can be asymptomatic so I dont know how much of an anomaly that is. Wasnt there also something to blood type? I have no idea what blood type I am but perhaps its that one.

 

[Max Power]

 Wasnt there also something to blood type? I have no idea what blood type I am but perhaps its that one.

O neg was linked to lesser symptoms from Covid. 

 

[Sand]

No, because it's possible -- more probable than not, actually -- that if I am positive now, my wife will be, too. Pre-symptomatic spread complicates facile measures.

My wife and I are both positive as of yesterday.  Of course, she tested one day prior to me, so by my count she infected me.  

(It's been a cold, nothing too serious.  It's lingered longer than a flu for both of us, but definitely not as sick as a flu has done.) 

 

[homer35h]

It’s not about a virus. It’s about control and power. If the ones telling you to be scared but don’t act like it themselves what does that tell you? Also it’s normal for hospitals to be full this time of year. Just look up the 2018 flu season.

 

[Stealthycat]

This implies that ONLY symptomatic people spread Covid. So, the million of people infected right now, they were ALL infected by people who had symptoms and then chose to not stay home?

I do understand what you're saying but on the other side of the coin, if asymptomatic spreads is we'd have far far more than 60 million testing positive for the biggest pandemic in 100 years right ?

the answer is somewhere in between 

 

[Doug B]

Supposedly 40% of cases can be asymptomatic so I dont know how much of an anomaly that is.

This is true, but you've withstood multiple known exposures.

Regarding blood type, susceptibility by blood type had some support early on but the overall data is equivocal: Blood Type Doesn't Affect Your COVID Risk (WebMD, 4/5/2021)

There could definitely be something else biologically plausible going on. You may naturally have fewer ACE2 receptors in your respiratory system than most people, for example. The human body needs ACE2 receptors to help regulate blood pressure, but the specific ones in the upper respiratory system are virtually vestigal -- you'd suffer no health effects if you didn't have them or if you had a relatively small number of them.

 

[jobarules]

This is true, but you've withstood multiple known exposures.

Regarding blood type, susceptibility by blood type had some support early on but the overall data is equivocal: Blood Type Doesn't Affect Your COVID Risk (WebMD, 4/5/2021)

There could definitely be something else biologically plausible going on. You may naturally have fewer ACE2 receptors in your respiratory system than most people, for example. The human body needs ACE2 receptors to help regulate blood pressure, but the specific ones in the upper respiratory system are virtually vestigal -- you'd suffer no health effects if you didn't have them or if you had a relatively small number of them.

All it takes is an asymptomatic case to one of those exposures making the other exposures meaningless. Natural Immunity is a thing. Plus I am boosted. Who knows.

 

[Dr_Zaius]

I don't buy that for a second.

This implies that ONLY symptomatic people spread Covid. So, the million of people infected right now, they were ALL infected by people who had symptoms and then chose to not stay home?

I mean, our country is full of first class jerks, but I can't believe that asymptomatic spread isn't happening and happening frequently.

Also, I'm sure the NFL has no rea$on$ for wanting to pretend that a$ymptomatic $pread isn't real, right?

The thing about asymptomatic spread, is that depending upon what symptoms you are tracking, the line between having symptoms and not is very blurry and you can see how someone with "symptoms" would not necessarily jump to the conclusion about having covid.  Headaches and scratchy throats happen to a lot of people pretty frequently, so if you felt slightly off with no known exposure and went about your business and later tested positive, one could argue you were a symptomatic spreader, but I don't think most people would condemn you for being reckless.  That said, you're absolutely right that the reason the NFL is changing the guidance is because they are faced with a situation where not changing the guidance would cause canceled games.

 

[Max Power]

I see a mini shutdown #2 on the horizon. Mostly in part to not having testing available. 

My daughter's school doesn't know what do right now. Since Monday her class is down 6 students and the teacher. At least 3 students and the teacher have fevers over 101. No confirmed cases of covid due to no testing available. 

The school isn't sure if it needs to notify parents of the remaining students or not and/or cancel classes tomorrow. 

 

[The Commish]

All it takes is an asymptomatic case to one of those exposures making the other exposures meaningless. Natural Immunity is a thing. Plus I am boosted. Who knows.

This leads me to wonder if you think there's such a thing as "unnatural immunity"....genuine question.

 

[jobarules]

I see a mini shutdown #2 on the horizon. Mostly in part to not having testing available. 

My daughter's school doesn't know what do right now. Since Monday her class is down 6 students and the teacher. At least 3 students and the teacher have fevers over 101. No confirmed cases of covid due to no testing available. 

The school isn't sure if it needs to notify parents of the remaining students or not and/or cancel classes tomorrow. 

In NYC, SUPPOSEDLY, they will start giving at home test kits to every kid in a class with a potential covid positive exposure. Not sure if it's actually happening but it's a great idea.

The kid is supposed to test on day 1 and day 5 but can keep going to school unless it's positive.

 

[Max Power]

In NYC, SUPPOSEDLY, they will start giving at home test kits to every kid in a class with a potential covid positive exposure. Not sure if it's actually happening but it's a great idea.

The kid is supposed to test on day 1 and day 5 but can keep going to school unless it's positive.

That is actually a pretty good plan. We just dont have access to tests right now. 

It appears the school is leaning towards ignoring the issue and praying for the best. 

 

[jobarules]

This leads me to wonder if you think there's such a thing as "unnatural immunity"....genuine question.

No idea what you mean

Natural immunity: immunity gained from a prior infection

Vaccine immunity: immunity gained from a vaccine

 

[Sand]

This leads me to wonder if you think there's such a thing as "unnatural immunity"....genuine question.

That vampire bite from last year doesn't seem to have helped. 

 

[John123]

Lack of available tests is a direct reflection on the companies who produce them and I sort of understand their position given how they were burned with H1N1 tests, but it should be obvious by now that what happened then isn't happening now.  When did it become the job of the federal government to tell these companies to be doing things a different way?  Seems pretty "socialist"-y to me.  Not a fan at all.  Our federal government's involvement here should be limited to a guarantee of X number of tests purchased AT MOST, but before that happens, the states need to answer for why they haven't spent the funds already allocated to them to get tests out to the areas that need them most.  If they show they are out of funds (highly unlikely) then the federal government should come in and provide tests.  The only other thing the federal government should do is perhaps provide funds via DPA or EMA (whatever it's called...lost track) if it's allowed.  We mentioned doing this with masks/PPE etc and that's probably easier to do with those kinds of things, but if there are companies who can switch to help with testing packages then the fed gov't should incentivize that if existing companies don't want to do it.  

This doesn't seem all that complicated but there seem to be a bunch of bad talking points colliding.  

I wish you'd amend your rhetoric to say "most states."  I've posted repeatedly about Colorado's program for sending out home testing kits, although right now they seem to be hit by a backlog as well.  I don't know about other states.   But, unless you've checked on each state's programs for testing it would be nice if you qualified your statements so that you didn't indict every state for non action when at least one (and maybe more) are doing their best to ensure good testing is available.

 

[Terminalxylem]

Thank you for your reply, we just fundamentally disagree about how much of the burden should be applied to kids. 

Things change. Kids are at far less risk of losing a parent than they once were due to vaccinations, treatments, and all the rest. Losing a grandparent, possibly (though still a remote possibility). 

And it's nice your friends' kids are handling things well. But, those are kids from stable and probably more upper-class homes. Not representative of the masses who need school and all the stability it provides that they often lack in the home. Remote learning is largely a joke for the majority of kids, but even worse it's damaging for a significant cohort of kids for other reasons as well (social well being, lunch, safety, diagnosis of potential abuse, etc).

Not to mention, we have little proof that remote schooling even slows spread. Kids are more likely to catch Covid outside of school than in school, so ultimately closures really don't help the situation anyway. Keeping kids out of school is a radical measure that should be proven as helpful to easing the pandemic to even arrive at a cost/benefit discussion, and I don't think anyone has ever shown it to be helpful through data. 

Fair enough. We disagree both about the potential for lasting damage to kids, and benefits of adjusting educational policy in response to surges. I don’t think the evidence is ironclad for either at this point.

 

[GoBirds]

Which Covid is it that changes your smell after? Think I had that one. 

 

[The Commish]

No idea what you mean

Natural immunity: immunity gained from a prior infection

Vaccine immunity: immunity gained from a vaccine

Im asking if you think the body knows whether the antigen presented is through virus or vaccine?  If not, why the qualification?

 

[The Commish]

I wish you'd amend your rhetoric to say "most states."  I've posted repeatedly about Colorado's program for sending out home testing kits, although right now they seem to be hit by a backlog as well.  I don't know about other states.   But, unless you've checked on each state's programs for testing it would be nice if you qualified your statements so that you didn't indict every state for non action when at least one (and maybe more) are doing their best to ensure good testing is available.

Feel free to put that qualification on. It has no impact on my point one way or the other especially when I clearly specify the states that still have billions of funds sitting in the bank, which is most (last I looked a few weeks ago)   

As I said:

the states need to answer for why they haven't spent the funds already allocated to them to get tests out to the areas that need them most.  If they show they are out of funds (highly unlikely) then the federal government should come in and provide tests. 

 

[Sand]

Which Covid is it that changes your smell after? Think I had that one. 

Xi variant.

 

[John123]

Feel free to put that qualification on. It has no impact on my point one way or the other especially when I clearly specify the states that still have billions of funds sitting in the bank, which is most (last I looked a few weeks ago)   

As I said:

the states need to answer for why they haven't spent the funds already allocated to them to get tests out to the areas that need them most.  If they show they are out of funds (highly unlikely) then the federal government should come in and provide tests. 

Yeah, I get it.  Asking anyone to strive for accuracy on this board is futile. 

 

[The Commish]

Yeah, I get it.  Asking anyone to strive for accuracy on this board is futile. 

what is inaccurate?

best I can see is that we used different words to say the same thing.

on top of that i said i had no problem withthe qualification as it had zero to do with the points I was making. 

 

[Shula-holic]

My wife and I are both positive as of yesterday.  Of course, she tested one day prior to me, so by my count she infected me.  

(It's been a cold, nothing too serious.  It's lingered longer than a flu for both of us, but definitely not as sick as a flu has done.) 

Our area is overrun with it. Our kids’ school district was scheduled to be virtual this week when their calendar was released. So they are at home this week anyway. Working from home I’ve had them all week. We went up to BWW for lunch yesterday bc it’s one of the few places they’ll both eat.  Heard it was closed today due to too many staff having Omicron. I’m vaxxed and boosted. Just living life as normal here. Figure if I get it I get it. Likely we all may have to have it at some point. 

 

[Doug B]

We went up to BWW for lunch yesterday bc it’s one of the few places they’ll both eat.  Heard it was closed today due to too many staff having Omicron.

This has happened at several places local to us. It's always a complete surprise -- you pass by one day at 7 pm and see customers, so you go back the next evening and the place is closed.

There are also a lot of places (usually independent coffee shops, diners, etc.) around here that used to serve from early in the morning until around 10 pm or so. When Delta ramped up, a lot of these types of places chopped off their evening hours, closing at 3 or 4 pm. And I mean in the suburbs, not in a downtown area that clears out after 5 -- these places are chopping off prime time to make money. They just don't have the staff.

 

[supermike80]

Im having a hard time keeping track of the CDC guidelines.   So are many of the people I know who have this, have had it etc.

It's a little jumbled currently it seems.   

 

[RavenFan]

The University of Maryland hospitals, like all hospitals in Maryland, are filled to the brim.  Of their Covid admissions and icu patients 75% are unvaxxed and 25% vaxxed to some extent.  But the key is only 2% are boosted.

So in Maryland in total 70% are fully vaxxed, 80% have at least one shot, but a far smaller % have been boosted.

It's clear the vaxxes don't provide great protection from acquiring this new strain but they are still remarkably protective if you're fully vaxxed and you have little risk if you're boosted.

This wave of Covid is rolling through our country and healthcare system so fast that thank goodness as many people are vaxxed.  Had this been the very first strain that made it's way through our country before there were vaxxes our healthcare system would have collapsed. 

 

[Max Power]

This has happened at several places local to us. It's always a complete surprise -- you pass by one day at 7 pm and see customers, so you go back the next evening and the place is closed.

There are also a lot of places (usually independent coffee shops, diners, etc.) around here that used to serve from early in the morning until around 10 pm or so. When Delta ramped up, a lot of these types of places chopped off their evening hours, closing at 3 or 4 pm. And I mean in the suburbs, not in a downtown area that clears out after 5 -- these places are chopping off prime time to make money. They just don't have the staff.

Yep, We're seeing the same here as well.  It's gotten to the point over the last several weeks that we call ahead if there was a set place we wanted.  

I'm really worried our favorite resutrant might not make it through this whole thing.  Inflation was hurting their bottom line, now staffing issues are closing them earlier on weekends and all together Monday. The quality and quantity off food has been slipping of late as well.  

 

[Max Power]

It’s a big day at the Supreme Court today. The Court is hearing emergency oral argument on two cases: the OSHA Mandate case and the CMS Mandate case. The schedule for today’s oral arguments at the Supreme Court, in case you wanted to listen to them, is:

— At 10:00 a.m., the Court will hear one hour of oral argument as to whether to reimpose a stay of the OSHA ETS, which is currently scheduled to go into effect on Monday, January 10, 2022.

— At 11:00 a.m., immediately following oral argument on the ETS, the Court will hear argument on the CMS rule for healthcare workers.

Here is the link to the audio stream: https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/live.aspx.

 

[AAABatteries]

Yep, We're seeing the same here as well.  It's gotten to the point over the last several weeks that we call ahead if there was a set place we wanted.  

I'm really worried our favorite resutrant might not make it through this whole thing.  Inflation was hurting their bottom line, now staffing issues are closing them earlier on weekends and all together Monday. The quality and quantity off food has been slipping of late as well.  

A great recommendation somebody made last year when a lot of things was shuttered was to buy gifts cards to places to help them get through this.  I guess you run the risk of the place closing and you never get to use it but I thought it was a creative way to show support without having to invest too much.

 

[fatguyinalittlecoat]

I am hopeful that my county (Montgomery County, MD) has hit peak now. Well, at least the numbers for today and yesterday are about the same (around 1,750 cases per 100K per week). 2 days isn't enough to be sure it's peak though.

It’s a good test to see how we fare against other places with low vaccination rates.  Last I checked we were among the most vaccinated large counties in the country.

 

[Max Power]

CDC director clarifies why isolation guidance changed from 10 days to 5

The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention explained why the agency has shortened its recommended isolation period for people infected with COVID-19, saying it's based on "years of science" about when people are most contagious with the virus.

"We are now standing on the shoulders of years of science that has demonstrated that if you are infected, you are most contagious in the one to two days prior to your symptoms and the two to three days after your symptoms," Walensky told Savannah Guthrie. "So we know that the vast majority of your contagiousness by day five is really behind you.

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/cdc-director-clarifies-why-isolation-131632682.html

And last week I thought it had a lot to do with what we thought people would be able to tolerate

 

[Snotbubbles]

The University of Maryland hospitals, like all hospitals in Maryland, are filled to the brim.  Of their Covid admissions and icu patients 75% are unvaxxed and 25% vaxxed to some extent.  But the key is only 2% are boosted.

So in Maryland in total 70% are fully vaxxed, 80% have at least one shot, but a far smaller % have been boosted.

It's clear the vaxxes don't provide great protection from acquiring this new strain but they are still remarkably protective if you're fully vaxxed and you have little risk if you're boosted.

This wave of Covid is rolling through our country and healthcare system so fast that thank goodness as many people are vaxxed.  Had this been the very first strain that made it's way through our country before there were vaxxes our healthcare system would have collapsed. 

What percentage of people are boosted?  I can't draw a conclusion that being boosted provides any additional protection from Omicron based on this information.  

 

[homer35h]

It's not a vaccine. 

 

[IvanKaramazov]

What percentage of people are boosted?  I can't draw a conclusion that being boosted provides any additional protection from Omicron based on this information.  

He said that 2% are boosted.

 

[RavenFan]

What percentage of people are boosted?  I can't draw a conclusion that being boosted provides any additional protection from Omicron based on this information.  

Maryland is 33% boosted.  Hospital admits and ICU patients are 2% boosted.  And the boosted represent the most at risk.

The vaccines are amazingly effective. 

 

[Doug B]

Maryland is 33% boosted.

I hadn't checked in a few weeks ... but this is also roughly the national percentage boosted -- around 30%. Not sure exactly what the denominator is, though -- All Americans? Those over 16/18? Something else?

 

[jobarules]

50% of recent NYC COVID hospitalizations involved patients admitted for non-COVID reasons.

https://www.wivb.com/news/new-york/watch-live-gov-hochul-announces-booster-mandate-for-healthcare-workers/

Why did it take a politician 2 years to ask this question?

Why did Fauci only recently admit this?

Does this give some credence to the conspiracy theories hospitals were overcounting covid deaths WITH Covid vs DUE TO Covid?

Did Omicron change this %?