Should USC's QB Caleb Williams Sit Out Rest Of Season? - FFA version (1 Viewer)

[Joe Bryant]

Here we go. https://x.com/EmmanuelAcho/status/1715935770836709808?s=20

Acho is not some random talking head. Wildly popular with a big audience.

With National Championship hopes gone, Caleb Williams should consider sitting out the rest of the season.The Heisman is a long shot, CFB Playoffs are even less likely, and he won’t play in the bowl game. The risk of playing FAR outweighs the reward. Business decision.

I don't want to presume everyone here follows football. I also asked this in the Shark Pool but thought the FFA might have an opinion too. If you didn't know, Caleb Williams is seen as a generational talent and will be a top pick (if not the top pick) in the NFL Draft.

 

[ghostguy123]

Depends on your perspective. Since none of us have any ties to him, we're much more likely to say he should play.
If it were me, or if he were my kid...........yeah, let's lock up a ton of money and not risk it in these games.

There's really no right or wrong answer, but one answer is certainly smarter than the other.

Honestly, even if the team was undefeated, ranked #1, and he was the Heisman frontrunner, I'd still prefer him to sit if he he was a close relative or friend of mine.

 

[In The Zone]

I voted agree. 10 years ago I would have disagreed but the landscape has changed and is still changing.

Funny thing a few people on social media in my neck of the woods asked the same question about Rattler but he is getting killed with no offense line.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

The right answer is probably to sit out but as sports fans that will never sit right with us. I get it.

Bottom line it’s his decision and if fat couch potato loudmouths want to call him out for making a tough decision about his future, he should ignore the noise and do what’s best for him and his family.

Personally I hope he decides to keep playing but can’t blame him if he doesn’t want to risk a future payday.

 

[TLEF316]

Yes. Full disclosure....I think bowl games that aren't for the national championship are just silly pointless nonsense. If I'm Williams, there's no way I'm risking millions of dollars to win 1 or 2 extra games so a bunch of alumni can go to the slightly more prestigious Alamo Bowl instead of the Las Vegas bowl.(or whatever) Football is violent. He's one bad step away from torn knee ligaments and millions of dollars (even if he only fell a couple of spots in the draft) down the drain.

And honestly....if I'm USC, I'd almost rather he sit. Now you get half a season to get some other Qb's some real experience and get a head start on next year. They took their shot with Williams....they lost. It happens. Might as well thank him for his service and get the next guy ready.

 

[belljr]

he should sit out not for injury but because his stock is dropping quick

 

[eoMMan]

I don't really follow college football but I keep hearing people talk about how different NFL teams should "tank for Caleb". Is he that good? In terms of top QBs entering the NFL draft over the past 20 years or so, where would he rank?

And I saw something about him and his team possibly wanting some team ownership % as part of his overall compensation. Good luck with that (it's not even allowed).

 

[Sullie]

If he were my son (my son is about his age) - I would leave it up to him (100%.) If my son were the QB behind Caleb Williams, I would want him to sit it out. As a guy that's been on teams (not on this level of course) I would think it would be extremely difficult to not be in there but I totally understand it. One thing no-one is talking about though, if he got ALL his NIL money up front, to me, the right thing to do is give some of that back. I also don't think he should be allowed to represent himself as a USC QB in commercials if he stops playing. Last couple of things, can we all agree Alex Grinch shouldn't be a Defensive Coordinator at any level higher than peewee football? Lastly, if we had a 12 or 16 team playoff, I would feel differently because I could certainly see a scenario in a 12 or 16 team playoff where USC makes it in but not in a 4 team playoff unfortunately.

 

[AAABatteries]

As an adult, he should do whatever he wants. If he asked my advice I would say just that but tell him to consider the pros and cons. Having moved from OU to USC he understands the business side of the game so really he just needs to decide if playing 6 meaningless college games is worth it to him.

 

[Joe Bryant]

It's super interesting as I think it's not about logic.

I think it's one of those things where it's about where you draw the line.

The logical thing for Williams would have been to sit the whole season.

Nobody bats an eye now when a player quits before a bowl game.

Why not quit mid season?

Why not quit before the season?

I expect we'll get to a spot where players regularly quit that are in the college playoffs.

 

[Goldminer1]

Quitting on your team for your own financial benefit is a pretty big red flag. What if he comes in, and has an awesome first 2 years in the league? The team that drafts him, will be thrilled that he's good, but will have to live under the very real threat of him holding out for a big money extension. Do you have that risk with potentially any highly rated draft pick? Sure. But, if you're an owner that can't afford a lame duck year, because your star QB is holding out for more money, you may decide to go in a different direction. Now, you've lost the money that you "gained" by quitting this year at USC.

If he's willing to do it at USC, he for sure would be willing to do it when we're talking about "real" money in the NFL.

He should play. If he is such a shoe-in to be the top pick, even if he has an ACL tear or something, he's still going to go pretty high. You can't live/play attempting to avoid a career-ending injury. Those are more rare than we realize at this point, and every part of your life has inherent risk in it. Go play. Get experience, support your teammates. Support your coaches. Outside of some truly freak accident, the money will be there.

 

[beer 30]

He hasn't done anything this season to improve his stock. He can if he continues to play but I wouldn't waste the #1 pick on him, especially if he quits mid season.

 

[CletiusMaximus]

It seems to me he’s going to sign a standard rookie contract for 4 years with a 5th year option regardless of what happens this fall. As I understand it, the contract writes itself - there’s no negotiation. He’s not going to get equity in a NFL franchise or stay in school for NIL money. I guess there is a small risk of a career injury but that seems extremely unlikely and can be insured if it’s about the money. I assume he loves playing football and wants to play, so would say he should keep playing if that’s what he want to do.

 

[3C's]

Sitting now drops him out of the #1 overall pick in my opinion. He's "underperformed" against strong defenses/tough teams and if he stops now he'll have quit on his team which isn't a good look. I'd like to see what he does against the 3 remaining top 25 teams/D's. He needs good performances vs those teams to quiet the doubters.

https://twitter.com/Blitz_Burgh/status/1715974767285792960

snip from an SI article: Williams has looked downright human when forced to win consistently from the pocket with quick progressions.

ETA: in case anyone is wondering if #1 vs #3 (or whatever) makes a difference (numbers per Sportrac):

• No. 1: $41.2 million
• No. 2: $39.4 million
• No. 3: $38.2 million
• No. 4: $36.9 million
• No. 5: $34.5 million
• No. 6: $30.4 million
• No. 7: $27.02 million
• No. 8: $23.7 million
• No. 9: $23.5 million
• No. 10: $22.6 million

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Does he need to give NIL money back of he sits out?

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Quitting on your team for your own financial benefit is a pretty big red flag.

This. Do I want to trust my franchise to a guy who -- for his own individual reasons -- quit on his team halfway through the season? If I'm a GM, am I comfortable risking my job and the job of everyone else in the building on that person's work ethic? Maybe, but I would be taking a hard second look at every other top QB's film.

 

[Poke_4_Life]

Does he need to give NIL money back of he sits out?

This was actually one of my first thoughts. Hope they are writing those NIL deals based on playing the games.

 

[Sullie]

Does he need to give NIL money back of he sits out?

I asked that very question a few posts above yours. If he got ALL the money up front, I would say he needs to give some of it back. if he gets paid week to week then it should stop when he stops.

 

[Joe Bryant]

It seems to me he’s going to sign a standard rookie contract for 4 years with a 5th year option regardless of what happens this fall. As I understand it, the contract writes itself - there’s no negotiation. He’s not going to get equity in a NFL franchise or stay in school for NIL money. I guess there is a small risk of a career injury but that seems extremely unlikely and can be insured if it’s about the money. I assume he loves playing football and wants to play, so would say he should keep playing if that’s what he want to do.

You're right on the contract. The equity talk is not realistic (or legal) and he'll get the deal he gets. I think it's less about doing the logical thing and more about what he determines is the "right thing".

It's my understanding even the biggest policies are way less than what he might actually earn though. Like in the 5 million dollar range.

 

[Joe Bryant]

On NIL money, we're still in the Wild West days of contracts. I'm not sure if there are opt out clauses in there. If there are not, there soon will be I'm sure.

 

[Jayded]

If he sits out, he foregoes that one lever he talked about potentially pulling if he doesn't like the team at the top of the draft. If he sits out and doesn't want to go to Chicago, for example, does he then transfer to stay in college one more year? Feels like sitting out would be his "all-in" move and with suggesting he might want to choose his destination and expectations around ownership shares, etc., he'd be walking a tightrope I'm not sure he'd really want to entertain.

If I'm advising him, I'd probably tell him to stick through the end of season to maintain NIL & leverage. At this point, that's 4 more games and two of which are against top-ten opponents in Washington and Oregon to put better 2023 film on the table as well.

 

[caustic]

Voted "on the fence." I think it would be reasonable to sit out and I wouldn't hold it against him. I don't think he's making a terrible mistake by continuing to play, though. Sitting out would cause a lot of drama and potential uncertainty around his status as the consensus #1, so it's reasonable to take on a bit of injury risk to avoid that.

 

[ekbeats]

Way too overconfident that he is a “generational talent”. I’m not so sure he is any better than Drake Maye at this point.

 

[bigbottom]

The last two games have hurt his stock. Quitting mid-season would hurt it further. And it would materially damage his reputation among fans, at least in the short term.

Also, a PAC-12 championship is still very much in play. Quitting now says that he doesn’t think he can lead his team to victories over Oregon and Washington. A mountain to climb for sure, but if he’s a competitor he keeps fighting to win the last ever PAC-12 championship.

 

[guru_007]

USC fan here - he should definitely sit out. Their season is done. He was terrible against Notre Dame, and so-so vs Utah, but they are not going to win anything significant here with that defense. I'm sure he can feign an injury that will keep him out the rest of the season. He's most certainly going #1 overall next year, there is nothing more for him to do/prove.

 

[CGRdrJoe]

If he's my kid then I'm telling him to sit out. These College teams and NFL teams don't give a **** about him so why should he feel loyal to them? The only player that I can think of who's injury didn't hurt his draft stock is Bradford and I'm sure teams have learned from that mistake as he spent most of his career hurt.

 

[Schmeabs]

I think he plays and they beat Cal next week. However, once they get destroyed by Washington the next week he calls it quits.

 

[jm192]

Quitting on your team for your own financial benefit is a pretty big red flag.

This. Do I want to trust my franchise to a guy who -- for his own individual reasons -- quit on his team halfway through the season? If I'm a GM, am I comfortable risking my job and the job of everyone else in the building on that person's work ethic? Maybe, but I would be taking a hard second look at every other top QB's film.

I get what you're saying.

But I think there's a difference. I think the ultimate end goal is to get to the NFL and achieve financial security. Once you've gotten that contract, if you tear your achilles and can't get to the same level--you've got 30/40 million to live the rest of your life on. Once you're financially safe--the need to protect yourself really changes.

We've seen so many guys do it now. Guys have skipped bowl games. Ja'Marr Chase and Rashod Bateman skipped an entire season. I don't think we've seen many guys quit on their NFL team. Guys are always auditioning for their next contract.

 

[jm192]

Does he need to give NIL money back of he sits out?

My understanding--and I'm nowhere near an NIL expert--is that the NIL can't be tied to playing for a specific school. While Football programs are using NIL to buy players--the NCAA doesn't want people openly saying they're buying players.
A lot of these are set up such that the donor gets something in return. Whether it just be a picture of the player at their business, appearances, social media posts, etc. He could still help business that way and continue an NIL relationship.

He could also sign with an agent and ask for an advance and give zero cares about NIL.

 

[Goldminer1]

The last two games have hurt his stock. Quitting mid-season would hurt it further. And it would materially damage his reputation among fans, at least in the short term.

Also, a PAC-12 championship is still very much in play. Quitting now says that he doesn’t think he can lead his team to victories over Oregon and Washington. A mountain to climb for sure, but if he’s a competitor he keeps fighting to win the last ever PAC-12 championship.

I agree with this. I don't remember what pitcher it was, but I was listening to a podcast, and this guy was talking about how he was really highly scouted as a young kid, and had guys buzzing around his games all the time.

One day he got shelled, and he figured he had blown his chance at getting picked very highly.

After the game, a scout came up and essentially said that their team, now knew that they were going to pick him in the first round, because now they had seen him face adversity and how he responded to it.

So far, it feels like Williams has run from any actual, or even potential adversity, that has been put in front of him. Doing it again, and on this "scale" would be a poison pill, in my opinion, for some teams.

Having to struggle isn't necessarily bad. Go play behind a crappy o-line, and show scouts what that might look like. Or understand, that scouts are perfectly aware that you're having to score 50 points a game to win, and that would put a lot of pressure on your shoulders. Going 35-40 for 450 yards and 6 touchdowns every week would be nice, but the reality is that in the NFL, you aren't going to have a utopian situation very often - especially - if you're going to a team with the #1 overall pick.

 

[timschochet]

Hell no. And I don’t even think it’s a close decision.
I watch the kid every week. Don’t like USC (I’m a diehard Bruin fan) but I love to watch Caleb. And here is what I know: he loves to play. He loves his teammates. He loves playing college football. This is a great joy for him, one that he will never have again for the rest of his life. This is a priceless time for him. The money will come later, right now he’s having fun.

 

[AAABatteries]

Quitting mid-season would hurt it further.

I think 1. The NFL doesn’t really care and 2. He could go about this the right way (if he decided to stop playing) to where his stock wouldn’t take a huge hit. Riley comes out and says the right things and he get with NFL folks to train and begin that process. It’s a matter of time before it gets to be common so NFL execs aren’t going to be shocked if he does it.

I have no clue on whether he’s worthy of being the “first” guy to do this - meaning, is he good enough but sounds like most think he is.

 

[thecatch]

In addition to what others have said, I think having more reps in college is helpful for a QB's development. He can use the rest of the season to continue to improve with experience. It'd be different if he were a DE or RB or something - increased injury risk is going to outweigh developmental concerns by a lot at other positions.

 

[eoMMan]

Hell no. And I don’t even think it’s a close decision.
I watch the kid every week. Don’t like USC (I’m a diehard Bruin fan) but I love to watch Caleb. And here is what I know: he loves to play. He loves his teammates. He loves playing college football. This is a great joy for him, one that he will never have again for the rest of his life. This is a priceless time for him. The money will come later, right now he’s having fun.

Lock to blow out his knee next week now. Thanks, Tim!

 

[Runkle]

Not only should he sit out this year, he should sit out next year too and enter the NFL as a free agent. The draft, and being forced to only negotiate with one team, needs to disappear. Let players opt to sign with whoever they want instead of requiring them to lock in multi year deals with teams they don't want to play for, and may be developmentally terrible for them.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I did a 270 on this. I was an "absolutely he should sit out" guy but upon reflection I'm not so sure.

He should keep playing because only playing will make him better.

But man, if he gets hurt the 20/20 hindsight on that... Well we've seen it before.

 

[northern exposure]

It is interesting the extent to which these play/sit out discussions/decisions are taking place. My son is a Senior in High School. He plays QB and his #1 WR has only played two games this season. He had a minor ankle tweak and missed the opening game. Played the next game and looked a little out of sync. Lit things up the next game and hasn't played since.

My son says he looks fine in practice early in the week and by the end of the week the WR says he can't play. He has some College offers already, so his parents say he isn't going to take any risks.

The WR was supposed to be back for the playoffs. They played their last regular season game on Friday and the update is he is "iffy" for the 2 rounds of the city playoffs and "might" be back for the regional playoffs.

 

[Capella]

I voted wrong but for those saying he should keep playing….how many players have we seen that have broken a leg or something terrible on the field?

I don’t understand the argument of well if he quits now what is stopping him from quitting on his nfl team. I don’t know…the 45M dollar annual check? He’s free labor for usc right now. He owes them nothing.

 

[Gally]

Does he need to give NIL money back of he sits out?

I asked that very question a few posts above yours. If he got ALL the money up front, I would say he needs to give some of it back. if he gets paid week to week then it should stop when he stops.

On NIL money, we're still in the Wild West days of contracts. I'm not sure if there are opt out clauses in there. If there are not, there soon will be I'm sure.

I could see it both ways. If he quits now he will get even more publicity which can be good for the NIL companies as "any publicity is good publicity" but depending on the product maybe it is a bad thing to quit.

Probably really depends on a case by case basis.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

It's super interesting as I think it's not about logic.

I think it's one of those things where it's about where you draw the line.

The logical thing for Williams would have been to sit the whole season.

Nobody bats an eye now when a player quits before a bowl game.

Why not quit mid season?

Why not quit before the season?

I expect we'll get to a spot where players regularly quit that are in the college playoffs.

I think not playing competitive football for a year, when there is still a lot to learn, despite talent, is potentially a huge determint to his development. GMs will look at that as a negative and his overall career could be impacted after that rookie contract. Also, he isn't getting any ownerships right to the team that drafts him -- regardless of that being a demand. How many "generational talents" have turned out to be busts? Taking a year off is a huge red flag.

 

[UncleZen]

Voted disagree. I wouldn't want to draft a guy who has shown he is about $$ over the team and I wouldn't want a guy who sat out forever without the reps.

 

[Gally]

In general, i find it sad that college sports has gotten to be such big business that this is even a question being considered. These guys are still mostly kids that should be enjoying their college years and experiences with their teammates. I completely understand why this is a question to consider and logically he shouldn't play risking injury but he still has work to improve and quitting does show a negative aspect when it comes to fulfilling commitments and honoring your team. I mean if he does that it would likely lead to none of teammates coming to his birthday party.

ETA: I voted disagree

 

[General Malaise]

he should sit out not for injury but because his stock is dropping quick

Do you really believe that?

 

[General Malaise]

Haven't voted, but I don't think he will sit out. It's not his character. Also, let's not forget that Lincoln Riley lured this kid away from OU to galvanize a moribund USC program and they have - at least on offense. I don't think he would leave his coach high and dry like that, I really don't. Riley put a LOT of his eggs in Caleb's basket and for Caleb to just shut it down because the team isn't going to win a national championship would be a betrayal to his coach.

Now, SHOULD he sit out for financial purposes? That's not a decision I can make for him. Were he my child, I don't know what I'd counsel, but as a person who values loyalty, I'd want my child to put an emphasis on that too when making his decision.

And where does it stop? I don't know how severe the injuries were to Deshaun Watson with regards to his shoulder a few weeks ago or his concussion (that he was cleared from before the half) from yesterday, but he's showing signs of a guy who isn't willing to risk it all for his team at the pro level. If Caleb quits a college season for fear of injury, what's to say he won't shut it down when his pro team is 0-8 and he's taking a pounding?

Guess I'm torn. I will also say I think the idea that his stock is dropping due to his recent performance on the field is silly. He had a bad game against Notre Dame, it happens. But did you guys watch the Utah game in full? He faced one of the top defenses in the country in a hostile place to play place that hard to park at and put his team up in the waning minutes with a beautiful TD scamper. He did his job. Not his fault the USC defense can't do theirs.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Not a college football junkie (how ‘bout them JMU Dukes!) but is there really a lot of risk for Caleb? Even if he tore an ACL, he’d possibly fall to what, #2 overall?

I agree with Capella’s take - Caleb doesn’t owe USC anything, but if there really isn’t much financial risk here, I’d probably advise my kid to keep playing if he wanted to.

 

[bigbottom]

Haven't voted, but I don't think he will sit out. It's not his character. Also, let's not forget that Lincoln Riley lured this kid away from OU to galvanize a moribund USC program and they have - at least on offense. I don't think he would leave his coach high and dry like that, I really don't. Riley put a LOT of his eggs in Caleb's basket and for Caleb to just shut it down because the team isn't going to win a national championship would be a betrayal to his coach.

Now, SHOULD he sit out for financial purposes? That's not a decision I can make for him. Were he my child, I don't know what I'd counsel, but as a person who values loyalty, I'd want my child to put an emphasis on that too when making his decision.

And where does it stop? I don't know how severe the injuries were to Deshaun Watson with regards to his shoulder a few weeks ago or his concussion (that he was cleared from before the half) from yesterday, but he's showing signs of a guy who isn't willing to risk it all for his team at the pro level. If Caleb quits a college season for fear of injury, what's to say he won't shut it down when his pro team is 0-8 and he's taking a pounding?

Guess I'm torn. I will also say I think the idea that his stock is dropping due to his recent performance on the field is silly. He had a bad game against Notre Dame, it happens. But did you guys watch the Utah game in full? He faced one of the top defenses in the country in a hostile place to play and put his team up in the waning minutes with a beautiful TD scamper. He did his job. Not his fault the USC defense can't do theirs.

I agree with everything you wrote here. Except that I don’t think the Coliseum is all that hostile a place for Caleb. At least not at the moment.

 

[General Malaise]

Haven't voted, but I don't think he will sit out. It's not his character. Also, let's not forget that Lincoln Riley lured this kid away from OU to galvanize a moribund USC program and they have - at least on offense. I don't think he would leave his coach high and dry like that, I really don't. Riley put a LOT of his eggs in Caleb's basket and for Caleb to just shut it down because the team isn't going to win a national championship would be a betrayal to his coach.

Now, SHOULD he sit out for financial purposes? That's not a decision I can make for him. Were he my child, I don't know what I'd counsel, but as a person who values loyalty, I'd want my child to put an emphasis on that too when making his decision.

And where does it stop? I don't know how severe the injuries were to Deshaun Watson with regards to his shoulder a few weeks ago or his concussion (that he was cleared from before the half) from yesterday, but he's showing signs of a guy who isn't willing to risk it all for his team at the pro level. If Caleb quits a college season for fear of injury, what's to say he won't shut it down when his pro team is 0-8 and he's taking a pounding?

Guess I'm torn. I will also say I think the idea that his stock is dropping due to his recent performance on the field is silly. He had a bad game against Notre Dame, it happens. But did you guys watch the Utah game in full? He faced one of the top defenses in the country in a hostile place to play and put his team up in the waning minutes with a beautiful TD scamper. He did his job. Not his fault the USC defense can't do theirs.

I agree with everything you wrote here. Except that I don’t think the Coliseum is all that hostile a place for Caleb. At least not at the moment.

I wasn't smart enough to get into USC....

ETA hope you enjoy the edited version

 

[Fantasy_Freak]

Didn't he state he or his dad state if they didn't like the team with the overall #1 he would go back for another year and continue to get the NIL money? If that is true I would assume sitting out takes that option away. I could fully understand him sitting out at the risk of losing significant money. Maybe its best he plays out the season but sits the meaningless bowl game.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

If he sits or if a player elects not to play in a bowl game, how does that impact their NIL $?

 

[Joe Bryant]

he should sit out not for injury but because his stock is dropping quick

Do you really believe that?

I think he'd still go #1. But I totally think his stock is dropping. A couple of weeks ago, FOX Sports Nick Wright called him the 6th most valuable QB in the NFL right now.

He's still #1 but has dropped to where it's not the light years of difference between him and the pack.