Sleepers - dynasty - QB (1 Viewer)

[Driver]

Summary of a few recent initial dynasty drafts (excludes IDP, includes rookies):

ADP – Name

Round 8+ sleeper:

84 - Vick

****

Round 9+ sleepers:

101 - Roethlisberger

102 – Romo

103 – Hasselbeck

105 – Kitna

108 – Eli Manning

****

Round 11+ sleepers:

137 – Leftwich

143 – Losman

147 - Tarvaris Jackson

****

Round 14-15 sleeper:

163 – Favre

****

Round 16+ sleepers:

181 – McNair

187 - Delhomme

Comments:

1. Vick has been dropping like a rock in recent initial dynasty drafts. He went 98th overall in one draft. A fair number of owners will not draft him no matter how far he falls. If you draft him, you'll need to get a good back-up in case of disaster (he gets jailed, suspended for the year, etc.).

2. Unless QBs are taken exceptionally fast in your draft, it appears you can definitely get one of the following in the 10th round – Roethlisberger, Romo, Hasselbeck, Kitna, Eli Manning. If you want to gamble, one or two of these QBs usually falls to the 11th round.

3. I like Leftwich a lot as a value play. In 5 recent drafts, he has gone 121-127-136-147-160 overall. Losman also a great value with ADP of 143.

4. As expected, the veteran QBs have been falling far in initial dynasty drafts. You can usually get Favre in the 15th round, and McNair or Delhomme a couple rounds later.

ETA: Disclaimer - I participated in a recent draft and compiled this info for my own drafting purposes and thought I'd share it with the SP. However, it was done fairly quickly, so it may contain some inadvertant errors. Also, I'm sure there are many other "sleepers" or potential value picks that I haven't identified. I focused on the top-15 players at the QB position and the players who had fallen the furthest IMO (not deep sleepers). To reduce the impact of outliers, ADP was calculated by dropping the high and low values and averaging the other values.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

As long as you have the roster spots to hold them, Matt Cassel is an excellent value in initial drafts and Kevin Kolb is an excellent value in rookie drafts. You may have to wait til 09 to see production, but both are coming extremely cheap - Cassel should get to at least compete for a starting job in 09, and Kolb has to be Philly's QB in the next 2-3 years, you just don't step a top 40 pick on a career backup. Kolb is especially interesting because he'll inherit a solid passing offense, and one that sets him up to succeed.

I also think people are terribly underrating the value of Drew Stanton, unless they just believe he will completely flame out. He's going to throwing to Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson. Roy Williams! and Calvin Johnson!

 

[KellysHeroes]

Rex Grossman.. 26 TDs last yr

Take away that Zona MNF game and his season wasn't half bad

 

[Uruk-Hai]

I'm shocked that Kitna is going ahead of Eli, Lefty, & Losman in dynasty drafts.

Driver, how many QBs are typically gone when Vick goes at #84?

 

[zadok]

Rex Grossman.. 26 TDs last yr

Take away that Zona MNF game and his season wasn't half bad

There was so much more than that 1 game:9 MIA 18 42 210 1 3 0 0 0 11.5

11 NYJ 11 22 119 1 0 1 -1 0 9.8

12 NE 15 34 176 0 3 2 1 0 5.9

13 MIN 6 19 34 0 3 4 -9 0 -2.2

17 GB 2 12 33 0 3 2 -1 0 -1.5

Post-season stinkers:

20 NO 11 26 144 1 0 2 -3 0 10.9

21 IND 20 28 165 1 2 2 0 0 10.2

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I'm shocked that Kitna is going ahead of Eli, Lefty, & Losman in dynasty drafts.

I think it's a fine move as long as you make sure to get Stanton later on. Besides, none of those three have proven themselves as trustworthy everyweek fantasy starters.

 

[Driver]

I'm shocked that Kitna is going ahead of Eli, Lefty, & Losman in dynasty drafts.Driver, how many QBs are typically gone when Vick goes at #84?

It appears that when Vick is drafted depends heavily on the owners in the league and how much they believe (or discount) all of the recent news. In 5 recent drafts, Vick went 62-70-89-94-98 (overall). He was the 8th, 9th, 10th, 10th, and 13th QB off the board.ETA: In the 3 drafts where Vick went late, there was an initial flurry of QBs taken, then a lull, then Vick was usually taken at the beginning of the 2nd flurry of QBs taken.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

I'm shocked that Kitna is going ahead of Eli, Lefty, & Losman in dynasty drafts.

I think it's a fine move as long as you make sure to get Stanton later on. Besides, none of those three have proven themselves as trustworthy everyweek fantasy starters.

I wasn't saying it was a bad move, just that it surprised me. Usually youth get exaggerated in dynasty leagues.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

If Buffalo opens up their offense a bit this year and allows Losman to throw the ball more he could be a steal. Losman averaged only 26.8 pass attemps per game which is easily in the bottom half of the leauge. Yet, he is in the upper half for completion percentages among starting QB's. They need to let him throw more. I think having Lynch in Buffalo will help Losman as well.

 

[Driver]

If Buffalo opens up their offense a bit this year and allows Losman to throw the ball more he could be a steal. Losman averaged only 26.8 pass attemps per game which is easily in the bottom half of the leauge. Yet, he is in the upper half for completion percentages among starting QB's. They need to let him throw more. I think having Lynch in Buffalo will help Losman as well.

Yeah, I agree. With Evans and Lynch plus the OL additions, BUF's offense should be a lot better this year. With his ADP at 143 overall, Losman is looking like a great value. I like Leftwich's value this year, too (ADP = 137).

 

[KellysHeroes]

Anybody Mention Alex Smith yet?

 

[Driver]

Anybody Mention Alex Smith yet?

I almost included Alex Smith in the above list, but I didn't think he was exactly a sleeper or value pick. Here's where he was taken: 107-113-114-117-123. ADP = 115.What do you think? (I personally like him a lot for dynasty, but I didn't get him on my team because I thought there were some better values available.)

 

[Q-Bert]

I'm shocked that Kitna is going ahead of Eli, Lefty, & Losman in dynasty drafts.

I think it's a fine move as long as you make sure to get Stanton later on. Besides, none of those three have proven themselves as trustworthy everyweek fantasy starters.

I really like this idea.

 

[Driver]

I'm shocked that Kitna is going ahead of Eli, Lefty, & Losman in dynasty drafts.

I think it's a fine move as long as you make sure to get Stanton later on. Besides, none of those three have proven themselves as trustworthy everyweek fantasy starters.

I really like this idea.

Fear & Loathing threw out the idea about teaming Kitna with one of the young QBs (Alex Smith, Losman, Leftwich, Campbell, etc.) to get a high level of QB production the next couple years from Kitna and cover yourself for the future with youth. I really like that idea, too.