Summary of a few recent initial dynasty drafts (excludes IDP, includes rookies):
ADP – Name
Round 8+ sleeper:
84 - Vick
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Round 9+ sleepers:
101 - Roethlisberger
102 – Romo
103 – Hasselbeck
105 – Kitna
108 – Eli Manning
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Round 11+ sleepers:
137 – Leftwich
143 – Losman
147 - Tarvaris Jackson
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Round 14-15 sleeper:
163 – Favre
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Round 16+ sleepers:
181 – McNair
187 - Delhomme
Comments:
1. Vick has been dropping like a rock in recent initial dynasty drafts. He went 98th overall in one draft. A fair number of owners will not draft him no matter how far he falls. If you draft him, you'll need to get a good back-up in case of disaster (he gets jailed, suspended for the year, etc.).
2. Unless QBs are taken exceptionally fast in your draft, it appears you can definitely get one of the following in the 10th round – Roethlisberger, Romo, Hasselbeck, Kitna, Eli Manning. If you want to gamble, one or two of these QBs usually falls to the 11th round.
3. I like Leftwich a lot as a value play. In 5 recent drafts, he has gone 121-127-136-147-160 overall. Losman also a great value with ADP of 143.
4. As expected, the veteran QBs have been falling far in initial dynasty drafts. You can usually get Favre in the 15th round, and McNair or Delhomme a couple rounds later.
ETA: Disclaimer - I participated in a recent draft and compiled this info for my own drafting purposes and thought I'd share it with the SP. However, it was done fairly quickly, so it may contain some inadvertant errors. Also, I'm sure there are many other "sleepers" or potential value picks that I haven't identified. I focused on the top-15 players at the QB position and the players who had fallen the furthest IMO (not deep sleepers). To reduce the impact of outliers, ADP was calculated by dropping the high and low values and averaging the other values.
ADP – Name
Round 8+ sleeper:
84 - Vick
****
Round 9+ sleepers:
101 - Roethlisberger
102 – Romo
103 – Hasselbeck
105 – Kitna
108 – Eli Manning
****
Round 11+ sleepers:
137 – Leftwich
143 – Losman
147 - Tarvaris Jackson
****
Round 14-15 sleeper:
163 – Favre
****
Round 16+ sleepers:
181 – McNair
187 - Delhomme
Comments:
1. Vick has been dropping like a rock in recent initial dynasty drafts. He went 98th overall in one draft. A fair number of owners will not draft him no matter how far he falls. If you draft him, you'll need to get a good back-up in case of disaster (he gets jailed, suspended for the year, etc.).
2. Unless QBs are taken exceptionally fast in your draft, it appears you can definitely get one of the following in the 10th round – Roethlisberger, Romo, Hasselbeck, Kitna, Eli Manning. If you want to gamble, one or two of these QBs usually falls to the 11th round.
3. I like Leftwich a lot as a value play. In 5 recent drafts, he has gone 121-127-136-147-160 overall. Losman also a great value with ADP of 143.
4. As expected, the veteran QBs have been falling far in initial dynasty drafts. You can usually get Favre in the 15th round, and McNair or Delhomme a couple rounds later.
ETA: Disclaimer - I participated in a recent draft and compiled this info for my own drafting purposes and thought I'd share it with the SP. However, it was done fairly quickly, so it may contain some inadvertant errors. Also, I'm sure there are many other "sleepers" or potential value picks that I haven't identified. I focused on the top-15 players at the QB position and the players who had fallen the furthest IMO (not deep sleepers). To reduce the impact of outliers, ADP was calculated by dropping the high and low values and averaging the other values.
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