You do realize Rainey has been on the team and active for every game this season right?
And you do realize that Rainey has 7 carries for 15 yds and 6 catches for 45 THE ENTIRESEASON!!! Right?
And you do realize that even with Mendy and Redman out and only 2 activ RBs in the game that Rainey had exactly 1 offensive touch THE ENTIRE GAME !!!!!!!!!
And you also realize that Dwyer was the leading rusher in the first 2 games despite splitting carries with Redman and actually getting 1 less carry then him. Right?
In conclusion, "although you could get very lucky and be right", your reasoning sucks badly.
Chris Rainey, RB, Steelers
4 rushes for 17 yards, 1 rushing TD
1 reception for 8 yards
4 kickoff returns for 122 yards
Let's say PPR with standard fractional scoring and, to hedge it your way a little, 25 yards per point for return yardage.
1.7 + 6 + 1 +.8 + 4.88 = 14.38 points
Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Steelers
17 carries for 122 yards
0 receptions for 0 yards
0 kick/punt returns for 0 yards
0 Touchdowns
Same scoring system
12.2 points
Dwyer ripped a 32 yard run with less than 2 minutes to go. And he achieved 48 of his rushing yards with three minutes to go in the game. After the Steelers had won the time of possession battle, holding the ball nearly 40 minutes of the game. Given a bit more on offense by Cincy, I think the Bengals D could have held the Steelers rushing attack to a lot less. They had for most of the game.
Vontaze Burfict had 13 solo tackles and 2 assists, including 2 tackles for a loss. Mike Johnson and Geno Atkins each had a sack.
What luck is there to it? It's like I said, Rainey was going to give you points in three different directions, even without an endzone score, thought he did end up having an endzone score, while Dwyer was likely to only give you points in one direction. If you run this game over 100 different times, I still believe Rainey would outscore Dwyer most of the time.
Every year, FBG and other sites say religiously, look at your scoring and settings for your league before you shape your roster. That everything you do is dependent on how you are scored. I'm glad Dwyer helped out some fellows here that needed him last night, but folks have to start considering there are players out there who can help you in a bunch of different ways like Rainey. Every week, someone here wins or loses by a few points in their various leagues, sometimes by fractional points or by a later week adjustment in scoring by the NFL. You might think my reasoning sucks, but the reality is the OP of this thread might have helped a lot of guys get a win and my replies might have helped some guys get a win.
What's luckier? A guy with established roles that will give you points in three or four different directions or riding that a player will give you nearly 50 yards of rushing in the last three minutes of a game?