Judge Smails
Footballguy
Wish I would have acted on my call to short Telehealth stocks, specifically Teladoc. Down 95% from high, fired CEO on Friday. Amwell about to get delisted. Down 95% and shares under $1. Blood bath
Up 68% today.Got some play money?
Bought DXYZ about 15 minutes ago at 48.
Wow!Up 68% today.Got some play money?
Bought DXYZ about 15 minutes ago at 48.
At 99 bucks nowUp 68% today.Got some play money?
Bought DXYZ about 15 minutes ago at 48.
Dxyz haltedAt 99 bucks nowUp 68% today.Got some play money?
Bought DXYZ about 15 minutes ago at 48.
I doubt I'll be buying today.Dxyz haltedAt 99 bucks nowUp 68% today.Got some play money?
Bought DXYZ about 15 minutes ago at 48.
Hot CPI, futures down
Yeah.....and the markets will function just fine in this rate environment.Hot CPI, futures down
Yup. Market has been pretty sideways for awhile, and maybe our looming/expected correction is finally here.
Forget any cuts anytime soon. Is this a new normal with rates? It's feeling that way.
Quite frankly only a recession will bring prices down. How mild or deep that will be has lots of different factors.I've been bearish on the idea of rate cuts for a while now I just haven't been sure how to play it since the market is just continuing to buy everything.
Don't we typically see a re-do in inflation in periods like this? Like inflation spikes all the way back up to the original amount after it comes down the first time, before it settles in for good. I'm not even sure what the theory is on why inflation would stay down low. People still have jobs, people are still spending like crazy. Restaurants and ski resorts and travel all the non-essential things are still over-packed and haven't really seen a decrease at all. There's no reason for anyone to stop raising prices.
ACBPurchased ACB at $6.32
As far as a correction goes, in my puny, ingnorant brain, markets only go down when people take money out (sell).
I just think investors have too much money and no where else to put it.
Would people sell and just sit on cash for several months, a year? ... Would you?
We hit 8% and I’ll never buy stocks again.As far as a correction goes, in my puny, ingnorant brain, markets only go down when people take money out (sell).
I just think investors have too much money and no where else to put it.
Would people sell and just sit on cash for several months, a year? ... Would you?
If rates hit 8%? 9%?... Might be tempted to sell some stragglers and put money in long term bonds, or at least reconsider the allocation of future contributions. Might be a lot more places to put it than the options I have today.
Hate to say it because I know there will be pain but we need a recession and an economic reset. They’ll do everything they can to delay it.Quite frankly only a recession will bring prices down. How mild or deep that will be has lots of different factors.I've been bearish on the idea of rate cuts for a while now I just haven't been sure how to play it since the market is just continuing to buy everything.
Don't we typically see a re-do in inflation in periods like this? Like inflation spikes all the way back up to the original amount after it comes down the first time, before it settles in for good. I'm not even sure what the theory is on why inflation would stay down low. People still have jobs, people are still spending like crazy. Restaurants and ski resorts and travel all the non-essential things are still over-packed and haven't really seen a decrease at all. There's no reason for anyone to stop raising prices.
I too was never gung ho they were going to slash rates fast...I felt two cuts before the year started in September and December.
Now? One cut in September is all I can potentially see in 2024.
I'm off the opinion that we are more likely to get one raise this year, but you can be sure it will be after November 3.
Now? One cut in September is all I can potentially see in 2024.
Time will tell.I'm off the opinion that we are more likely to get one raise this year, but you can be sure it will be after November 3.
Now? One cut in September is all I can potentially see in 2024.
(Mods, this is purely talking the effects of politics in money, not politics itself!)
I’m definitely with you on this. I think that the final leg on getting inflation down to where the fed wants it to be is beyond what the capabilities of their tool box is able to achieve. Raising and lowering rates can have some effects on altering demand (and thus prices) on things that are not super necessary. However, many of the people and corporations that would need to lower prices in order to get inflation down to where the fed wants it to be have no interest in sacrificing their massive profit margins. I don’t think they care about higher rates because they are thriving in this climate of higher rates. Companies that are super profitable now, that have nice balance sheets—that are excelling—are not going to be motivated to self sacrifice their profit margins in order to give the fed justification to lower rates and to make cash cheaper again. This would effectively create more competition for them as it would level the playing field between them and companies and corporations that are having a hard time surviving in a tighter market. Even though the jobs reports are strong—one of the biggest employers has been the government—which in an election year is not super surprising. I want to make clear that I’m not trying to make this into a political post, but I don’t think any administration from any party would want to see unemployment numbers go way up in an election year—and consequently—I’m not super surprised that the government is doing a lot of the hiring. If this wasn’t an election year, I think we would be seeing some softness in the employment numbers. I see the market basically bouncing up and down for the near term. We’ll get some tidbits of info that look good and some tidbits that aren’t ideal—but I don’t see the final leg of reducing inflation being easy to achieve.I've been bearish on the idea of rate cuts for a while now I just haven't been sure how to play it since the market is just continuing to buy everything.
Don't we typically see a re-do in inflation in periods like this? Like inflation spikes all the way back up to the original amount after it comes down the first time, before it settles in for good. I'm not even sure what the theory is on why inflation would stay down low. People still have jobs, people are still spending like crazy. Restaurants and ski resorts and travel all the non-essential things are still over-packed and haven't really seen a decrease at all. There's no reason for anyone to stop raising prices.
Inflation tends to be sticky. I do think the Fed has the toolbox and is wielding it (like Thor's Hammer). It just takes time to sink in - like in 2025 (I hope).I’m definitely with you on this. I think that the final leg on getting inflation down to where the fed wants it to be is beyond what the capabilities of their tool box is able to achieve.I've been bearish on the idea of rate cuts for a while now I just haven't been sure how to play it since the market is just continuing to buy everything.
Don't we typically see a re-do in inflation in periods like this? Like inflation spikes all the way back up to the original amount after it comes down the first time, before it settles in for good. I'm not even sure what the theory is on why inflation would stay down low. People still have jobs, people are still spending like crazy. Restaurants and ski resorts and travel all the non-essential things are still over-packed and haven't really seen a decrease at all. There's no reason for anyone to stop raising prices.
So.... If the sky is falling... What puts do we buy?
I am genuinely curious about what your thesis is. Their only tools are raising and lowering rates and their dialogue. Mohamed El-Arian recently said that the Feds speech has become nothing more than a play by play commentary that imposes unnecessary volatility into the markets. He believes that their speech and comments should definite a clear road map or strategy--and that doesn't seem to be happening. I don't think that the tools that the Fed has are going to make grocery stores charge less for food that people need to buy, I don't think that their tools are going to reduce the cost of rent or mortgages much (as if they reduce rates, home prices could actually go up), and I don't think that their tools are going to do much in reducing the costs of many services. i don't think the feds tools are going to be effective in reducing much demand for fuel, energy and utility costs..etc Keep in mind, I'm certainly don't want to come across as being super negative or pessimistic about things. I think we'll work our way through things and I don't think the "sky is falling". In the near to mid term--I just see a situation where most of the essential stuff that people use/need is going to retain high prices no matter what the fed does. I really hope that m thesis is wrong. Time will tell.Inflation tends to be sticky. I do think the Fed has the toolbox and is wielding it (like Thor's Hammer). It just takes time to sink in - like in 2025 (I hope).I’m definitely with you on this. I think that the final leg on getting inflation down to where the fed wants it to be is beyond what the capabilities of their tool box is able to achieve.I've been bearish on the idea of rate cuts for a while now I just haven't been sure how to play it since the market is just continuing to buy everything.
Don't we typically see a re-do in inflation in periods like this? Like inflation spikes all the way back up to the original amount after it comes down the first time, before it settles in for good. I'm not even sure what the theory is on why inflation would stay down low. People still have jobs, people are still spending like crazy. Restaurants and ski resorts and travel all the non-essential things are still over-packed and haven't really seen a decrease at all. There's no reason for anyone to stop raising prices.
I am genuinely curious about what your thesis is. Their only tools are raising and lowering rates and their dialogue. Mohamed El-Arian recently said that the Feds speech has become nothing more than a play by play commentary that imposes unnecessary volatility into the markets. He believes that their speech and comments should definite a clear road map or strategy--and that doesn't seem to be happening. I don't think that the tools that the Fed has are going to make grocery stores charge less for food that people need to buy, I don't think that their tools are going to reduce the cost of rent or mortgages much (as if they reduce rates, home prices could actually go up), and I don't think that their tools are going to do much in reducing the costs of many services. i don't think the feds tools are going to be effective in reducing much demand for fuel, energy and utility costs..etc Keep in mind, I'm certainly don't want to come across as being super negative or pessimistic about things. I think we'll work our way through things and I don't think the "sky is falling". In the near to mid term--I just see a situation where most of the essential stuff that people use/need is going to retain high prices no matter what the fed does. I really hope that m thesis is wrong. Time will tell.Inflation tends to be sticky. I do think the Fed has the toolbox and is wielding it (like Thor's Hammer). It just takes time to sink in - like in 2025 (I hope).I’m definitely with you on this. I think that the final leg on getting inflation down to where the fed wants it to be is beyond what the capabilities of their tool box is able to achieve.I've been bearish on the idea of rate cuts for a while now I just haven't been sure how to play it since the market is just continuing to buy everything.
Don't we typically see a re-do in inflation in periods like this? Like inflation spikes all the way back up to the original amount after it comes down the first time, before it settles in for good. I'm not even sure what the theory is on why inflation would stay down low. People still have jobs, people are still spending like crazy. Restaurants and ski resorts and travel all the non-essential things are still over-packed and haven't really seen a decrease at all. There's no reason for anyone to stop raising prices.
I think Powell will err on the side of waiting too long rather than cutting early (when things are still a bit toasty) and I like that idea. I'd rather eat several quarters of recession if it means inflation's been stamped out. The converse is to cut, potentially too early, and have inflation persistent. It's like a virus that needs to be knocked out. I'm battening down.
I think I'm digging apple at $169
ThanksI think I'm digging apple at $169
Excellent call!
I saw another article on this today and it reminded me that I never went back to respond to this like I intended to.Racketeering lawsuitUWMC getting smoked last couple of days. Might be a good entry point.
Market's shrugging it off so far.
@Chadstroma , I'm sure you've got a take?
Talk about a massive conflict of interest.
Gotta wonder if those big volume spikes this week that led to the decline were people with inside info getting out early or that Hedge Fund shorting in blocks.
Looks to me almost like a new way to try and short a company. Or maybe not so new, idk.
To be clear, you think Rocket is behind the class action lawsuit, or the Hunterbrook story, or both?I suspect that this whole thing is a scheme by Rocket
I may be this biggest non-institutional owner of this turd outside of the the insiders, many of which I own more shares than....Speaking of UWMC, got that nice big dividend posted today!
I think they are involved in some way... if it was just a suggestion or active direction or something in between, I don't know. That is my hunch and I have no evidence for it but it falls in line with the core values of Rocket that I have seen played out over and over and over with clients, brokers, and anyone and everyone. It is a company that cheats, steals and lies it's way every step of the way in all things that it does. Completely void of moral or ethical compass.To be clear, you think Rocket is behind the class action lawsuit, or the Hunterbrook story, or both?I suspect that this whole thing is a scheme by Rocket
Yea, the price on the stock has sucked but that dividend is a helluva way to be patient with it.Speaking of UWMC, got that nice big dividend posted today!
This is what stuck out to me too.Do brokers always choose the lowest lender that they have available for the client? Absolutely not. Because we would be out of business if we did. If a broker is signed up with 10 wholesalers, often those with best pricing are lenders that you only use if you absolutely need to. Why? Because they are slow or inept or have a reputation for not getting deals closed at all or otherwise very hard to work with. Hence, in order for these companies to get business they have to lower their rates in order to entice brokers to send them business. Brokers like myself are very careful to deliver great service- which is centered around making the transaction smooth and quick. We keep some of those lenders as options when we essentially have no other choice and the conversation with the client is a preface of (paraphrased of course) "Look, I can get this done when not one else can. However, it is going to suck and we may not close on time."
Is it sustainable if rates don't drop? I remember looking at some point and thinking their cash + cash flow was going to require debt or equity to sustain it if volume didn't increase. I'm interested, but I haven't looked at it lately.Yea, the price on the stock has sucked but that dividend is a helluva way to be patient with it.Speaking of UWMC, got that nice big dividend posted today!
Except inflation is on the rise again. Can't cut now even if they wanted to. Might even want to tick it up in June.I think Powell will err on the side of waiting too long rather than cutting early (when things are still a bit toasty) and I like that idea. I'd rather eat several quarters of recession if it means inflation's been stamped out. The converse is to cut, potentially too early, and have inflation persistent. It's like a virus that needs to be knocked out. I'm battening down.
I agree and have been saying this since the beginning back when everyone thought we'd be getting rate cuts as early as 2023 (always crazy). If they err to one side, it's going to be waiting too long, because they screwed up last time in 2019 and caved to pressure and cut too soon, which is part of the reason we're in this mess in the first place. Granted Covid exacerbated things greatly, but things might've looked different if we were sitting at 5% when covid started and could secure the stock market for a few months with rate cuts rather than having to YOLO straight into unlimited money printing since rates were already near zero.
Thanks. Purchased as recommended and sold todaySQQQ
You can thank me. I sold both lt positions about two weeks ago. King Anti-Midas strikes again.Gold $2,420
Silver $29.31