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Stock Thread (20 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
What's the argument for cutting rates if the economy is actually doing well (even though, most Americans aren't happy with it)? If they cut later this year, that also mixes in politics, etc.
There are few calls for any recessions these days as well.
Why can't rates stay where they are?
McBokonon
Footballguy
Obviously this is your fault.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
An argument would be that the impacts of rate increases are typically felt on a long lag. Another argument would be the current level of interest rates make the housing supply issues in the country worse by discouraging home building/residential investment. The last major one is that higher interest rates than other major currencies encourage foreign inflows that make the USD stronger. A stronger USD hurts export driven parts of the economy.
I think #2 is probably the most concerning. Overall though, the economy is just growing too fast to argue for a rate cut now.
Bossman
Footballguy
I agree. I don't see rates going down since people still have and are still spending money. The economy doesn't need stimulating. It would make zero sense.
The rate of inflation has now slowed only because prices are already so inflated. Cost of goods aren't ever going back to where they were. This is the new normal going forward.
Hopefully you bought your house when interest rates were at 4%. We're not going to see that again anytime soon.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
They're spending it. Whether or not they have it is another story.
Capella
Footballguy
You’d think after 7000 times in a row of doing that and the next day tanking I’d learn. But, alas.
KGB
Footballguy
About to repurchase with the war
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Indeed. Futures are green.
When was the last interest rate increase - last October or so? I have heard that argument that we won't know what impacts from rate increases until later, but do we know what industries, types of assets would be more at risk?
KGB
Footballguy
Closed it right now. 100% up. Woot
Bogart
Footballguy
KGB
Footballguy
I hear ya. The issue is puts are very expensive. It was at 70 when I bought $40 puts and sold when DJT was at $26.xx
any other stock I would be banking more than 100% I think going from $70 to $26. But I dont know for sure, im a dummy
Desert_Power
Footballguy
What happened out there today. Yeesh.
KGB
Footballguy
Thanks man
General Malaise
Footballguy
For any silver bugs still around....
Global silver deficit to rise in 2024 due to higher demand, lower supply
Reuters | April 17, 2024 | 5:24 am
The global silver deficit is expected to rise by 17% to 215.3 million troy ounces in 2024 due to a 2% growth in demand led by a robust industrial consumption and a 1% fall in total supply, the Silver Institute industry association said on Wednesday.
Silver, which is used in jewelry, electronics, electric vehicles and solar panels, as well as an investment, faces the fourth year of a structural market deficit.
“The deficit in the silver market helps to provide robust support and a strong floor for the price,” said Philip Newman, managing director at consultancy Metals Focus, which produced the World Silver Survey for the Silver Institute.
“The deficit fell by 30% last year, but in absolute terms – at 184.3 million ounces – it was still eye-watering. Global supply has been broadly steady at around the 1-billion-ounce mark, while industrial demand did incredibly well with 11% growth.”
Despite the shortage, visible silver inventories, as well as vast metal stocks held by individuals and investors, continue to protect the silver market from a squeeze for now.
“Identifiable silver inventories, as well as metal held off exchange, remain sizable. However, some of this silver may be tightly held, so it will be interesting to see, going forward, what impact ongoing deficits have on the market,” Newman added.
Stocks held in commodity exchange depositories and London vaults fell by 5% last year and amounted to nearly 15 months of global supply as of end-2023, the report said.
The bulk of the drop in reported stocks took place in China, which historically was a surplus market due to silver production from imported base metals concentrates. “However, the breakneck rise in local industrial demand (of 44%) is changing the local supply/demand and inventory dynamics,” the report said.
Spot silver prices, up 18% so far this year, touched $29.79 per ounce, their highest in the more than three years, last week amid a gold rally and strong copper prices.
Global silver deficit to rise in 2024 due to higher demand, lower supply
Reuters | April 17, 2024 | 5:24 am
The global silver deficit is expected to rise by 17% to 215.3 million troy ounces in 2024 due to a 2% growth in demand led by a robust industrial consumption and a 1% fall in total supply, the Silver Institute industry association said on Wednesday.
Silver, which is used in jewelry, electronics, electric vehicles and solar panels, as well as an investment, faces the fourth year of a structural market deficit.
“The deficit in the silver market helps to provide robust support and a strong floor for the price,” said Philip Newman, managing director at consultancy Metals Focus, which produced the World Silver Survey for the Silver Institute.
“The deficit fell by 30% last year, but in absolute terms – at 184.3 million ounces – it was still eye-watering. Global supply has been broadly steady at around the 1-billion-ounce mark, while industrial demand did incredibly well with 11% growth.”
Despite the shortage, visible silver inventories, as well as vast metal stocks held by individuals and investors, continue to protect the silver market from a squeeze for now.
“Identifiable silver inventories, as well as metal held off exchange, remain sizable. However, some of this silver may be tightly held, so it will be interesting to see, going forward, what impact ongoing deficits have on the market,” Newman added.
Stocks held in commodity exchange depositories and London vaults fell by 5% last year and amounted to nearly 15 months of global supply as of end-2023, the report said.
The bulk of the drop in reported stocks took place in China, which historically was a surplus market due to silver production from imported base metals concentrates. “However, the breakneck rise in local industrial demand (of 44%) is changing the local supply/demand and inventory dynamics,” the report said.
Spot silver prices, up 18% so far this year, touched $29.79 per ounce, their highest in the more than three years, last week amid a gold rally and strong copper prices.
kevzilla
Footballguy
I don't know. It's a healthcare company based in South Florida, the home office for shady medical businesses. One for ten reverse split, not confidence-inspiring. Down 40% today. I hope this money is coming from the "It was either this or Mohegan Sun" account.
It's all tin and neodymuim now. Good to hear from you, GB.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
CLSK back on the table as a crypto play? Opened a small position a few days ago (just lucky timing) and already considering where to take profits. I remember the 2021 run that was touted in here...
General Malaise
Footballguy
Team tin!
Met with my accountant for beers yesterday as he was celebrating the end of tax season. He's not exactly the kind of guy who is.....loose with money. He's going to buy Alphamin today/tomorrow after we talked about it.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
Tempted to add some NVDA here with earnings on the horizon...
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
POS is only up 175% on the year.
Have never owned it.
Almost certain I should buy here. I rarely get or even acknowledge FOMO in regards to anything, but it's real and its name is NVDA.
Have never owned it.
Almost certain I should buy here. I rarely get or even acknowledge FOMO in regards to anything, but it's real and its name is NVDA.
General Malaise
Footballguy
AMD is on sale. Gawd. This is no fun.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Don't look at SMCI...
Bossman
Footballguy
Is this NFLX sell off after earnings report justified or an overreaction?
It was another great ER .... but because they reported that they would not be disclosing membership numbers starting next year people are selling?
Very strange to me. I bought more Friday and will probably pick up more next week as well ... unless someone can give me another reason for the fall.
It was another great ER .... but because they reported that they would not be disclosing membership numbers starting next year people are selling?
Very strange to me. I bought more Friday and will probably pick up more next week as well ... unless someone can give me another reason for the fall.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I think it's mostly overdone. However my concern would be if they want to be more valued on traditional metrics, those might not paint as rosy of a picture relative to the current price, and how much of that current price was driven by subscriber metrics instead?
Their net profits have been pretty flat since they blew up in covid, with no major increase over the last 3 years since peak covid despite being priced as a hyper growth stock. Over the last 2 years their net profits are flat but their P/E ratio has tripled from 15 to 45. If it was subscriber metrics that caused people to buy forward enough to bump the P/E ratio up that high, is it going to stay that high (or grow) based on their profits, which are flat?
Todem
Footballguy
Not a buyer at these levels. The multiple is very high for such a narrow moat company.
On the other hand:
NVDA
META
GOOGL
Are at attractive forward multiples and still an overweight buy here.
AAPL is now getting overdone long term as well.
MFST is fair market value.
We are in the very early innings of the AI revolution.
I was in a due diligence conference this week in Baltimore with T.Rowe Price. I got a lot of great information.
I will share some things next week.
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Capella
Footballguy
What are your thoughts at AMD at this level? I have a nice trench already, thinking of adding to it after the last few weeks.
Todem
Footballguy
Extremely expensive.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
Now +30% in a week. Still holding...
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
Tried the SNAP trade, bought on the crash after last earnings with the hope it would run up again into earnings this week. But basically flat on it now with the 3.5% bump today. Maybe another couple of points in the next day and a half? But no way I'm holding this thing into the earnings release, which means it's probably the one time it'll spike instead of gap way lower.
Bossman
Footballguy
Got some more NFLX, NVDA and META yesterday and today. I'm already very deep in GOOGL.
So far, so good. I hope the pullback tomorrow isn't so huge.
McBokonon
Footballguy
Elon made some reference to cheaper models being available soon (though it seems like his response was kind of meh unless you’re a diehard) and robotaxis being unveiled in August.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
It was never down. It went straight up as soon as earnings dropped.
Like @McBokonon said, them finally confirming officially that they were working on a cheaper new model to release next year (which in Elon speak probably means 2027) is exactly what people were looking for.
Capella
Footballguy
My Apple stock app showed it down 10.5% but I don’t own any of it so didn’t look any further.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Fake news from the apple app
I was trading it. It closed at 144, immediately shot to 155 when earnings dropped, got back down as low as 148 while people digested it, and then slowly crept up to 160 throughout the rest of AH.
