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Tavon Austin - Upside (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Eminence
- Start date
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
he is definitely more interesting in dynasty... the importance of the breakout was in showing his physical ability and talent may be more refractory to long term bustdom than some surmised... some people were pulling the plug on justin hunter after a few games, AJ green and julio jones have spoiled some fantasy owners in recent years...
but redraft was the question...
another thing the breakout did was show what austin could do if (like lyon correctly said)...
1 - penalties don't erase his big plays from scrimmage and ST
2 - he doesn't drop the ball
3 - schotty finally calls some creative (competent) routes that were more advanced than circa knute rockne... mix in some deep and crossing routes, instead of the run one yard and squat variety "patterns"...
people might want to ask themselves, if they are summarily dismissing him, if you were the HC and OC, and your prized rookie just had one of the three best multiple long TD games in league history for a rookie or vet, in the last six games, would you...
throw the ball to him less, the same, or possibly a bit more?
that said, i wouldn't blow up the team to get him in redraft...
but redraft was the question...
another thing the breakout did was show what austin could do if (like lyon correctly said)...
1 - penalties don't erase his big plays from scrimmage and ST
2 - he doesn't drop the ball
3 - schotty finally calls some creative (competent) routes that were more advanced than circa knute rockne... mix in some deep and crossing routes, instead of the run one yard and squat variety "patterns"...
people might want to ask themselves, if they are summarily dismissing him, if you were the HC and OC, and your prized rookie just had one of the three best multiple long TD games in league history for a rookie or vet, in the last six games, would you...
throw the ball to him less, the same, or possibly a bit more?
that said, i wouldn't blow up the team to get him in redraft...
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VikingFrog
Footballguy
He's on many waiver wires, and the question for me is do I go our and get him with a high wiaver bid/priority if I still have it?
Not sure he breaks my roster, but if anything at this point in time, it keeps him off another players roster if he does explode.
With playoffs 3 weeks away there is little time for breakout players, and not a lot of handcuffs I see out there that would crack the lineup if a starter went down.
Might be worth a pickup in many leagues for this reason. Especially when people are dumping their bye week pickups like extra defenses or extra tight ends that are no longer necessary.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
was the 65 yard TD against the bears another case of nothing special other than running really fast?
cross-posted from the other austin thread...
austin with his fourth 50+ yard TD in past two games*.
has he even been touched on any of them?
with the 65 yard rushing TD against the bears on his first touch, that made a 50+ yard score on three consecutive offensive touches (including his two against IND two weeks ago, before the bye - not counting his first score, the 98 yard punt return score in the second quarter of that game)...
for the historians/statisticians, how common is it to do those two things?
* not sure if gales sayers is the only other player to do that in league history?
not sure about the three consecutive offensive touches one?
Xue
Footballguy
Watch the play again: http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-cant-miss-plays/0ap2000000286456/WK-12-Can-t-Miss-Play-Tavon-turns-it-up
How many defenders did he make miss? Zero. He wasn't touched because of 2 great blindside blocks.
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Bob Magaw
Footballguy
but than the onus is on you to explain, if running really fast was all there was to it... how come there aren't a bunch of really fast dudes in NFL history that had consecutive games with a combined four 50+ yard TDs...
if he continues to have long scores, at some point, are you going to stop saying it was because he is really fast?
i saw the highlight, but imo what you don't see is as revealing as what you do (same as last week)... you neglected to mention that his instant stop/start reversal at the beginning, faked out an UNBLOCKED #99 (mcclellin?), who was tasked with contain, out of his jock... he sold the fake so well, most of the CHI defense was flowing the wrong way from the misdirection (a big reason he was able to get a TD down the opposite sideline of the fake, when more defenders should have had the angle)...
after the initial fake, he gets up to near full speed in about three strides (that isn't easy, don't try that at home)...
after given's block/screen of two defenders, he exploded out of his cut, showing not just speed, but electric suddenness, burst, short area quickness and accelleration out of his cut...
* was the oklahoma game special? or was that also just a case of running really fast?
and again, if that is all it was, college has seen a lot of really fast dudes... how come dozens haven't racked up nearly 600 all purpose yards (and nearly broken the NCAA record for a game) against oklahoma over the years?
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Xue
Footballguy
I'm sure Gale Sayers would still be the same player we think he is without his 50+ yard plays. Is Austin's recent achievements a predictor of future success? That's the better question. Or is it just trivia facts that's nice to know?but than the onus is on you to explain, if running really fast was all there was to it... how come there aren't a bunch of really fast dudes in NFL history that had consecutive games with a combined four 50+ yard TDs...
if he continues to have long scores, at some point, are you going to stop saying it was because he is really fast?
i saw the highlight, but imo what you don't see is as revealing as what you do (same as last week)... you neglected to mention that his instant stop/start reversal at the beginning, faked out an UNBLOCKED #99 (mcclellin?), who was tasked with contain, out of his jock... he sold the fake so well, most of the CHI defense was flowing the wrong way from the misdirection (a big reason he was able to get a TD down the opposite sideline of the fake, when more defenders should have had the angle)...
after the initial fake, he gets up to near full speed in about three strides (that isn't easy, don't try that at home)...
after given's block/screen of two defenders, he exploded out of his cut, showing not just speed, but electric suddenness, burst, short area quickness and accelleration out of his cut...
* was the oklahoma game special? or was that also just a case of running really fast?
McClellin was 5 yards away. He and the rest of the defense was faked out by the playcall. And even if McClellin didn't get "faked" there was Kendricks right there to block him.
One defender did have an angle. He didn't see Pettis come take him out.
Does breaking records predict success? Or is just more trivia info? Or is it trivial?
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
so if a player you like fakes the defense out... It was your player that did it.
but if a player who is nothing special and just runs really fast fakes the defense out... It was the playcall that did it? that is a creative way to dismiss a player and bolster your initial take.
mcclellin was five yards away... defenders do sometimes make plays from five yards away... if austin hadn't ""faked"" mcclellin, he could have gotten in front of kendricks, who was still at least five yards away at the time austin executed the spin reversal... or if austin (not the playcall) hadn't faked mcclellin out of his jock, maybe he could have been in better position to disengage from the block, force the play inside or otherwise disrupt how the play was drawn up, austin's angles and the timing of the play for the downfield blockers...
not taking anything away from the work of givens and pettis blocking, it was outstanding and they were instrumental in making austin look good... but you are pretending he didn't play an integral role in making them look good by executing and getting a TD for the payoff...
you still aren't really addressing some of the questions, though... rather than answer them, you obscure the fact that you haven't answered them with the dismissive, too cool for school, trivial labelling of the question itself... kind of like dismissing austin's game, overall talent and playmaking ability, by an exclusionary collapsing of all his traits and attributes into zippy sloganeering ("just runs really fast")... dismissal and extreme reductionism seem to be popular, go to strategies for you.
if what he was doing was so easy, and you just have to "run really fast", wouldn't you expect to see it all the time? was the Oklahoma game a case of just running really fast?
aren't a lot of NFL WRs "really fast"? if it was so easy, how come a lot of WRs never have four 50+ yard TDs in a CAREER (let alone in the span of two games)! that should be trivially easy for you to answer.
so you don't see special suddenness, burst, acceleration and short area quickness , besides speed (being at full speed in three strides)?
again, if he keeps getting 50+ yard scores... at what point do you stop saying he just runs really fast?
but if a player who is nothing special and just runs really fast fakes the defense out... It was the playcall that did it? that is a creative way to dismiss a player and bolster your initial take.
mcclellin was five yards away... defenders do sometimes make plays from five yards away... if austin hadn't ""faked"" mcclellin, he could have gotten in front of kendricks, who was still at least five yards away at the time austin executed the spin reversal... or if austin (not the playcall) hadn't faked mcclellin out of his jock, maybe he could have been in better position to disengage from the block, force the play inside or otherwise disrupt how the play was drawn up, austin's angles and the timing of the play for the downfield blockers...
not taking anything away from the work of givens and pettis blocking, it was outstanding and they were instrumental in making austin look good... but you are pretending he didn't play an integral role in making them look good by executing and getting a TD for the payoff...
you still aren't really addressing some of the questions, though... rather than answer them, you obscure the fact that you haven't answered them with the dismissive, too cool for school, trivial labelling of the question itself... kind of like dismissing austin's game, overall talent and playmaking ability, by an exclusionary collapsing of all his traits and attributes into zippy sloganeering ("just runs really fast")... dismissal and extreme reductionism seem to be popular, go to strategies for you.
if what he was doing was so easy, and you just have to "run really fast", wouldn't you expect to see it all the time? was the Oklahoma game a case of just running really fast?
aren't a lot of NFL WRs "really fast"? if it was so easy, how come a lot of WRs never have four 50+ yard TDs in a CAREER (let alone in the span of two games)! that should be trivially easy for you to answer.
so you don't see special suddenness, burst, acceleration and short area quickness , besides speed (being at full speed in three strides)?
again, if he keeps getting 50+ yard scores... at what point do you stop saying he just runs really fast?
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SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Why in the heck do they give him so few touches?
TheFanatic
Footballguy
Macdaddy_2004
Footballguy
I'd like to see them commit a little more to him - the problem is he either has a really really good day or really really bad day.
Xue
Footballguy
Just calling it how I see it Magaw. What Austin did was nowhere close to shaking McClellin "out of his jock".
This is what "out of his jock" looks like: http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view4/3692528/mccoy-juke-o.gif
McClellin was nowhere near him.
This is what "out of his jock" looks like: http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view4/3692528/mccoy-juke-o.gif
McClellin was nowhere near him.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
One reason is because they now have a legit running game. And they know that a key to their success is limiting the opposing offensive snaps by keeping them off the field. That, and I'm still not entirely sure the coaching staff knows how to get him a big play a game. They have the last two games, but we don't know if that will continue. If it does next week against San Fran, some folks are going to need to be looking at this guy a little differently. Me, as a Tavon owner, I'm still keeping him on the bench even this week. If he does it again (and I make the playoffs with a big game by Morris tonight), I might start him the week after.
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
Considering draft position the Rams have the most embarrasing WR corps in the league. Austin- Givins- Bailey don't have the body types to be #1 WRs. Austin is a great returner, but I'm just talking about him as a reciever. You can't build a offense around Quick. You paid Cook to not use him, and he has butter fingers.
I don't like any of these guys FF future assumimg the Rams are in the market for a big/physical reciever in the draft, unless it's Austin for kick/punt returns.
I don't like any of these guys FF future assumimg the Rams are in the market for a big/physical reciever in the draft, unless it's Austin for kick/punt returns.
Call me crazy, but Quick, Austin, and Bailey in 3WR sets sounds like money.
Keep your eyes on Bailey, imo.
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
I still don't see Austin as a #1 WR in the league. I wonder if the Rams sign/draft a receiver with size to free up space for these little guys.
cstu
Footballguy
People love to blame the receivers but with that OL and Clemens at QB after week 7 what did anyone expect them to do? On top of that all those receivers were first or second year players. Austin can be used all over the field and Bailey can be a very good possession receiver. They do need either Quick or Givens to come through as a deep threat but the receivers aren't the biggest concern for the offense.
cstu
Footballguy
Here are some small receivers who have done well within 10 lbs. of Austin (5-8.5, 176, 4.33):
Marvin Harrison (6-0, 175, 4.49)
Wes Welker (5-9, 185, 4.61)
Steve Smith (5-9, 185, 4.45)
Santana Moss (5-9.5, 181, 4.31)
DeSean Jackson (5.9.6, 169, 4.35)
Terance Mathis (5-10, 177) - four 1000+ yard seasons
Question for the Austin doubters - what does he lack that these guys didn't? I find it hard to believe that .5 to 1 inch and a few pounds on a guy with such tremendous talent could mean he can't be like these guys.
Marvin Harrison (6-0, 175, 4.49)
Wes Welker (5-9, 185, 4.61)
Steve Smith (5-9, 185, 4.45)
Santana Moss (5-9.5, 181, 4.31)
DeSean Jackson (5.9.6, 169, 4.35)
Terance Mathis (5-10, 177) - four 1000+ yard seasons
Question for the Austin doubters - what does he lack that these guys didn't? I find it hard to believe that .5 to 1 inch and a few pounds on a guy with such tremendous talent could mean he can't be like these guys.
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ShaHBucks
Footballguy
Don't get emotional. That was just a decent post with solid FF advise.
Xue
Footballguy
Bailey can be a very good receiver, period, and can be used all over. Bailey was targeted farther downfield than Austin.
You're going to have to define "possession" receiver for me.
False Start
Footballguy
From someone who does not watch football it may be great advice. The fantasy football community is starting to bother me with their way of thinking. Youth and "what have you done lately" is all that matters. We wonder why we constantly see people crying about the bad moves they make on this site. A lot of hype and very little knowledge going around it seems. Seven years ago you had people who understood the fantasy game and would let their eyes do the work, now you have people just reading Rotoworld and the hype here and taking what they say as gospel and calling it a day.
The real sharks now are the people who don't follow they hype and do the unpopular things to great results. I remember before TRich was drafted, I said Lacy would be a better bet in the NFL in my fantasy circles and was laughed at to no end. I didn't follow the hype of Trent and the hate of Lacy, it's amazing what your eyes can do for you.
Austin is explosive and should be getting the so called hype Patterson is. He is not, so Austin supporters use it to your advantage. Some say Bailey is better than Austin for goodness sake. They came to that Bailey conclusion after he played way fewer games in the NFL and was drafted in the 3rd and Austin in the 1st because his talent was that much better through college, the combine, pro days, draft day, OTAs, training camp and until Austin hurt his foot. While draft spot isn't indicative of performance, it sure is after one year when Bailey played sparingly and Austin showed his upside. I have both over a few leagues in full disclosure.
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False Start
Footballguy
I too like Bailey and believe they have intentions of using them both on the field quite a bit due to the chemistry they have on the field and running routes (don't underestimate that value). Austin is EXPLOSIVE AND UNDERVALUED. No way around it. Bailey may prove to be a good player even he has good upside being taken in the 3rd, but to compare him to Austin in total upside is ludacrist.
Englishteacher
Footballguy
False Start
Footballguy
If I were to compare him, I would say a better version of Kendall Wright but a notch below Harvin as far as his style and talent.
Englishteacher
Footballguy
I don't know that Austin merited the 8th pick on his offensive potential alone. When you factor in his return ability, it significantly increases his value and thus made him a higher pick. Look at Devin Hester. He went in the second round and his main strength was returning, albeit, he was a uber blue chip returner in college. He's never made a significant contribution as a position player. My point, I don't think Austin is worth an 8 pick in the scheme of things on offensive prowess.
I really think those expecting him to perform as such are missing this evaluation. Plus, the college game is vastly different than the pro game schematically. Spinks is very correct in saying the NFL is valuing the space game but you have to have requisite power before speed and quickness are relevant. Blocking comes first and the skill accentuates the offense. Not the other way around. The big guys come first and the little guys have to prove they can play.
Digressing a bit.
I don't see Austin as a guy who can break a tackle. He's not 180 even. This is going to limit him. Regardless, he'll be valuable offensively given time, scheme, and supporting cast. I don't think he wins you a FF championship as the cornerstone ever either.
Utilization wise, I'd love to see him in a hybrid type role in an offense like the Saints where he could again have similar function to that of a mesh of Lance Moore and Darren Sproles.
He's be great in the Amendola/Edelman role in NE.
Dexter McCluster went in the second round.
Steve Smith started as a returner. He's also aerially superior to Austin though.
Limitations I see to productivity are an inability to truly absorb sustained, plentiful contact and craft development as a receiver.
Cobb and Harvin get some carries but I don't see this as a bread and butter for Austin. None of these guys are going to be able to pass block to be even a 3rd down RB. Reverses, misdirections, end arounds, sure.
Motion and complexity in the offense also have to be there. You can't line him up as the I back in a power formation and run him between the tackles. Payton and Bellicheck would do wonders with him because you'd never be sure of his function on the play and about the time you'd figure out a guess as to one of 4 options, there's be a shift in the formation and you're back to square one with a 4.2 guy with moves like Barry Sanders.
I'm not sure Fisher, who primarily leaned on a power run game in Tennessee, knows how or will utilize Austin to his full potential. Ironically, lots of the grumblings I heard coming from Rams fans was about the play calling and lack of creativity in utiilzing their intriguing talent.
My stream of consciousness.
I really think those expecting him to perform as such are missing this evaluation. Plus, the college game is vastly different than the pro game schematically. Spinks is very correct in saying the NFL is valuing the space game but you have to have requisite power before speed and quickness are relevant. Blocking comes first and the skill accentuates the offense. Not the other way around. The big guys come first and the little guys have to prove they can play.
Digressing a bit.
I don't see Austin as a guy who can break a tackle. He's not 180 even. This is going to limit him. Regardless, he'll be valuable offensively given time, scheme, and supporting cast. I don't think he wins you a FF championship as the cornerstone ever either.
Utilization wise, I'd love to see him in a hybrid type role in an offense like the Saints where he could again have similar function to that of a mesh of Lance Moore and Darren Sproles.
He's be great in the Amendola/Edelman role in NE.
Dexter McCluster went in the second round.
Steve Smith started as a returner. He's also aerially superior to Austin though.
Limitations I see to productivity are an inability to truly absorb sustained, plentiful contact and craft development as a receiver.
Cobb and Harvin get some carries but I don't see this as a bread and butter for Austin. None of these guys are going to be able to pass block to be even a 3rd down RB. Reverses, misdirections, end arounds, sure.
Motion and complexity in the offense also have to be there. You can't line him up as the I back in a power formation and run him between the tackles. Payton and Bellicheck would do wonders with him because you'd never be sure of his function on the play and about the time you'd figure out a guess as to one of 4 options, there's be a shift in the formation and you're back to square one with a 4.2 guy with moves like Barry Sanders.
I'm not sure Fisher, who primarily leaned on a power run game in Tennessee, knows how or will utilize Austin to his full potential. Ironically, lots of the grumblings I heard coming from Rams fans was about the play calling and lack of creativity in utiilzing their intriguing talent.
My stream of consciousness.
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False Start
Footballguy
Whenever I see negative comments about Austin I just click this video here
Then I just say "That was only his rookie year, mostly with Kellen Clemens." Then I feel better and realize people doubting his ability forget people whose life is devoted to this game drafted him at 1.8 for a reason and see the same ability.
Then I just say "That was only his rookie year, mostly with Kellen Clemens." Then I feel better and realize people doubting his ability forget people whose life is devoted to this game drafted him at 1.8 for a reason and see the same ability.
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
touchy subject. I wonder what are people watching too. The thing is Austin is quick fast and elusive....on tape you see a special teams and gadget player. Then go watch Bailey and you will see a pure wide receiver. Great Hands, body control and football player finesse. In terms of the wide receiver position, IMO Bailey will have the better career. There is a reason Bailey average nearly 4 yards a catch more than Austin over the course of their college careers.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I really like the fake reverse play @ 2:10
Rams coaches need to be more creative with him like they were on this play.
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
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False Start
Footballguy
Where do you think they get the highlights from? Your dislike for him is noted.I don't watch highlights. I seen the actual games
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
The take the "highs" of his career and get people like you to believe they have an educated opinion all within 3 minutes. Please quote where I said I disliked him. Disliking a player and attempting to put a player in the proper context are two different things.Where do you think they get the highlights from? Your dislike for him is noted.I don't watch highlights. I seen the actual games
cstu
Footballguy
False Start
Footballguy
The take the "highs" of his career and get people like you to believe they have an educated opinion all within 3 minutes.Please quote where I said I disliked him. Disliking a player and attempting to put a player in the proper context are two different things.Where do you think they get the highlights from? Your dislike for him is noted.I don't watch highlights. I seen the actual games
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
Best post I've seen you makeThe take the "highs" of his career and get people like you to believe they have an educated opinion all within 3 minutes.Please quote where I said I disliked him. Disliking a player and attempting to put a player in the proper context are two different things.Where do you think they get the highlights from? Your dislike for him is noted.I don't watch highlights. I seen the actual games
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Stedmon Bailey is a great blocker as well. The more he plays the better the odds of Austin breaking a big play because of Bailey's blocking, timing and chemistry playing with Austin. There are likely situations where they can catch the defense in a bad situation where one key block means an explosive play for Austin. And plays to set that situation up.
The Rams were throwing the ball too much in the 1st 4 weeks of the season. For better or worse with Bradford back as the starter I expect the Rams to open up the passing game a lot more. Like they were trying to do early in the 2013 season.
Improved blocking on the outside will lead to bigger plays. Cook is a bit of a hole in that area. I don't think the Rams will play the FB as much with Bradford at QB as they did with Clemons.
The Rams were throwing the ball too much in the 1st 4 weeks of the season. For better or worse with Bradford back as the starter I expect the Rams to open up the passing game a lot more. Like they were trying to do early in the 2013 season.
Improved blocking on the outside will lead to bigger plays. Cook is a bit of a hole in that area. I don't think the Rams will play the FB as much with Bradford at QB as they did with Clemons.
Englishteacher
Footballguy
Attesting to my post, I'm not knocking Austin at all. I think he has an amazing and one of a kind skill set. However, some of my points alluded to he'll have a long way to go to be a Marvin Harrison or Steve Smith on offense and his overall value to an actual NFL team is greatly augmented by his return skills. Were he not a returner, maybe he goes later 1st. Then again, I'm not a front office exec either.
Englishteacher
Footballguy
The best barometric, physical prowess comparison I can think of is this guy:
http://www.nfl.com/player/dantehall/2504165/careerstats
If you compare Hall's apex on offense in 2003, you'll find them nearly identical to Austin's rookie year stats. 40 catches. 10 ypc. So Hall's offensive ceiling is Austin's floor. Obviously, Austin may have more WR skill and craftsmanship, so there is obvious room to grow. That told, they have similar physical dimensions.
Hall was the "Human Joystick" and rarely took a hit. Phenomenally fast and elusive but not physical or a tackle breaker.
Marvin Harrison was a career "ducker" when it came to tackles and protected himself well. However, he was HOF when it came to WR skill. Mastermind technician.
Steve Smith is physical and tough. He can run any route and make any catch in addition to being pound for pound, one of the fiercest, physical players in the game.
http://www.nfl.com/player/dantehall/2504165/careerstats
If you compare Hall's apex on offense in 2003, you'll find them nearly identical to Austin's rookie year stats. 40 catches. 10 ypc. So Hall's offensive ceiling is Austin's floor. Obviously, Austin may have more WR skill and craftsmanship, so there is obvious room to grow. That told, they have similar physical dimensions.
Hall was the "Human Joystick" and rarely took a hit. Phenomenally fast and elusive but not physical or a tackle breaker.
Marvin Harrison was a career "ducker" when it came to tackles and protected himself well. However, he was HOF when it came to WR skill. Mastermind technician.
Steve Smith is physical and tough. He can run any route and make any catch in addition to being pound for pound, one of the fiercest, physical players in the game.
Englishteacher
Footballguy
How do you see his growth progressing offensively and what can the Rams do to optimize his skill set? Also, how do you see the offense progressing as a team? Seems to me they drastically changed strategies after Bradford went down and leaned on Stacy and a smashmouth run game from what little I know about the Rams. Arguably, it may have been as effective as what they were doing early in the season.
Could you see a power / spread balance? IMO, this team greatly lacks identity.
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Sake-Bombers
Footballguy
I liked Amendola better in the Amendola role in St. Louis, and I would like Austin even more in the Amendola role plus rushing attempts in St. Louis.
cstu
Footballguy
People have already forgotten what a PPR beast Amendola was when healthy with the Rams. If he could do that I have no reason to think a vastly more talented Austin can't be even more productive.
cstu
Footballguy
I expect to see what the balanced attack they had weeks 5-7 when Bradford was healthy and Stacy became the starter. 30-35 passes a game from Bradford and 25 carries for Stacy seems about right. Bradford threw 7 TD's to just 1 INT in those 3 games.
cstu
Footballguy
Except that Hall was a RB who had 22 career receptions in college, compared to Austin's 288.
