TB Mike Williams (1 Viewer)

[shortbow]

Didnt TB Mike have the 2nd best rookie WR season of all time, only Randy Moss had a better one? Or is it the best rookie wr season since randy moss?

 

[Steed]

Boldin might have been better, but it's close.

 

[Enraged Nerfball]

I don't know what conclusions can be drawn as each player is going to be different. For example taking some of the top WRs in the game today and their rookie seasons:

Fitzgerlad 58/126 for 46%, his QB McCown 57%

Andre Johnson 66/129 for 51%, his QB Carr 57%

Reggie Wayne 27/50 for 54%, Peyton 63% ... small sample size

Roddy White 29/67 for 43%, Vick 55% ... another fairly small sample size

Playing style and body type Williams reminds me most of Roddy. This past year was the first in which Roddy was over 60% receptions/targets. For his career he is 43%, 48.5%, 57.5%, 54% (Ryan 61%), 51.5% (Ryan 58%), and 64% (Ryan 62%).

You have to look at the TD/INT ratio too. These guys were throwing more interceptions than Freeman. Freeman was not forcing things. And, you have to look at who was starting and how much time each spent. The small sample sizes of White and Wayne should probably be removed. If they are only coming on the field in 3 or 4 WR sets, when play action is not a threat, their % is going to be lower than a starter running the entire route tree.

Are you basing this from stats alone, because i watched Freeman force a ton of passes to Williams. I would argue that Williams catch % is lower because Freeman felt more comfortable "forcing" throws to him he wouldnt have to oher WR's?I also dont think you can accurately tell who "forces" more passes based on TD/Int ratio.

Saw this myself. While these discussions can be helpful I think it's important to realize that Williams was a rookie and Freeman in his second year. What they did together was pretty remarkable for such young players. There was a reason they targeted Williams so much.

 

[MrSoup]

I feel the same way about Mike Williams right now that I felt about Hakeem Nicks this time last year. Stud in the making.

I have no numbers to back this feeling up. I think video is all you need.

I think Freeman, Williams, and Blount all progress this year and I also think Raheem Morris is doing a fantastic job in Tampa.

 

[CompetitiveEdgeFootball]

It's just still too early to tell what is going to happen with this kid. I'd hate him as my #1. I'd love him as my #2. I'm not a dynasty guy, but I expect asking prices to be way too high right now for what you're likely to eventually get. He's a nice piece but I wouldn't give the store for him.

 

[Grahamburn]

I Think Williams is a solid receiver but im not sure his future is a perennial WR1. My prediction is by the end of this year him and Benn are both vying for the Number 1 spot. I see the same type of year he had last year with less tds.

Do you have any logical reasoning behind this thinking, other than the fact that Benn is on your fantasy team?Mike Williams severely outplayed Benn in camp in 2010, he outplayed him during the 2010 season when Benn was healthy, and now Benn is missing priceless reps because of the lockout.I see no signs that Arrelious Benn will challenge Mike Williams for anything in 2011. Benn's main competition is going to be Dezmon Briscoe, who the Bucs really like, and who will likely challenge for the starting spot opposite MW.

 

[moderated]

I Think Williams is a solid receiver but im not sure his future is a perennial WR1. My prediction is by the end of this year him and Benn are both vying for the Number 1 spot. I see the same type of year he had last year with less tds.

Do you have any logical reasoning behind this thinking, other than the fact that Benn is on your fantasy team?Mike Williams severely outplayed Benn in camp in 2010, he outplayed him during the 2010 season when Benn was healthy, and now Benn is missing priceless reps because of the lockout.I see no signs that Arrelious Benn will challenge Mike Williams for anything in 2011. Benn's main competition is going to be Dezmon Briscoe, who the Bucs really like, and who will likely challenge for the starting spot opposite MW.

Benn was expected to start slow as he was learning a more complex position. As he got more comfortable he started to progress.Also the only way briscoe beats out benn is if his acl isn't healed (which is possible).

 

[Instinctive]

All of these opinions are totally valid. I am amazed that the thread got so many responses - never had one like that before.

1. I'm not saying Williams is Clayton. All I said was they have similar catch percentages, as he does with many others. The same result could happen.

2. I'm a MW owner in a lot of leagues too. This is just enough that I am hedging in one or two though - especially those in which I have Dez, Colston, Nicks, and Wallace too and need a QB

3. Data doesn't mean causation. It's just something to think about.

4. Of course I put "Drastically Overrated?" as the subtitle. It drew in posters, didn't it? Isn't that what a tease is supposed to do?

 

[trader jake]

Isn't the bigger issue with Mike Williams his off the field stuff? He dropped late to Tampa in the draft for a reason. Now you can argue that getting thrown off Syracuse's team was overblown but all 32 teams passed on him multiple times.

I don't own Mike Williams in either league I play in but if I did I'd be a lot more concerned about that than and catch percentage numbers or comparisons to past rookie wideout stats. His DUI incident last year (later dismissed) seemed to suggest his maturity still isn't where it should be, but maybe I just read into it. :dunno:

 

[LawFitz]

Isn't the bigger issue with Mike Williams his off the field stuff? He dropped late to Tampa in the draft for a reason. Now you can argue that getting thrown off Syracuse's team was overblown but all 32 teams passed on him multiple times.I don't own Mike Williams in either league I play in but if I did I'd be a lot more concerned about that than and catch percentage numbers or comparisons to past rookie wideout stats. His DUI incident last year (later dismissed) seemed to suggest his maturity still isn't where it should be, but maybe I just read into it. :dunno:

His off-field stuff seems to be behind him. That DUI incident was a joke and probably more a case of DWB. That said, you never know how a young man like this will handle success and fame and based on his past, you almost have to grade him as more risky in this regard than someone comparable with a spotless history.

 

[Enraged Nerfball]

Isn't the bigger issue with Mike Williams his off the field stuff? He dropped late to Tampa in the draft for a reason. Now you can argue that getting thrown off Syracuse's team was overblown but all 32 teams passed on him multiple times.I don't own Mike Williams in either league I play in but if I did I'd be a lot more concerned about that than and catch percentage numbers or comparisons to past rookie wideout stats. His DUI incident last year (later dismissed) seemed to suggest his maturity still isn't where it should be, but maybe I just read into it. :dunno:

His off-field stuff seems to be behind him. That DUI incident was a joke and probably more a case of DWB. That said, you never know how a young man like this will handle success and fame and based on his past, you almost have to grade him as more risky in this regard than someone comparable with a spotless history.

Now this I agree with. All indications are that Mike has handled himself well. His response to the DUI charge was mature and he took responsibility. That said, I do wonder about how he handles himself as he and the team get more pub. My hope is that he aligns himself with Freeman, and some of the veterans like Rhonde and keeps his wits about him. I would really like to see where his talent takes him.

 

[T with T]

I don’t think that the data highlighted means what you think it does. You make a point to show the catch %, and then you veer away from that. There is no correlation with successful receivers long term and busts that follows the catch % argument. So, at this point the speed receivers are separated from the big bodied possession types. I don’t understand why, but I’m willing to follow where you are going. Even when you do this, the data does not enlighten us further. Speed vs Possession receivers, it's all the same. For that matter, where do you get that Williams is a “TD receiver”. Does that mean a possession type, move the chains receiver? He’s not a burner, but he isn’t slow either, running a 4.5. What exactly turns you off to Williams? Is it his terrific body control and superior athleticism? He’s 23, coming off a great rookie year, the incumbent #1 WR of an up and coming superstar QB in Josh Freeman. He’s only scratched the surface. What other than fuzzy numbers do you have that would make anyone feel pessimistic about Mike Williams Tampa? If you think he’s Michael Clayton II, then you’d be wrong. Clayton got paid and went into the tank. Williams is still awaiting his first big payday. This kid passes the “eyeball” test, and I said that during preseason last year. No way that he is “overvalued”.

Mike will be a stud 11 tds as a rookie, come on now Footballguys... wake up here I know you guys are running out of stuff to talk about but lets get real

 

[sihaokills]

Mike Williams is a stud... The film has shown great leaping ability and nice runs after the catch love the kid

 

[Instinctive]

I don’t think that the data highlighted means what you think it does. You make a point to show the catch %, and then you veer away from that. There is no correlation with successful receivers long term and busts that follows the catch % argument. So, at this point the speed receivers are separated from the big bodied possession types. I don’t understand why, but I’m willing to follow where you are going. Even when you do this, the data does not enlighten us further. Speed vs Possession receivers, it's all the same. For that matter, where do you get that Williams is a “TD receiver”. Does that mean a possession type, move the chains receiver? He’s not a burner, but he isn’t slow either, running a 4.5. What exactly turns you off to Williams? Is it his terrific body control and superior athleticism? He’s 23, coming off a great rookie year, the incumbent #1 WR of an up and coming superstar QB in Josh Freeman. He’s only scratched the surface. What other than fuzzy numbers do you have that would make anyone feel pessimistic about Mike Williams Tampa? If you think he’s Michael Clayton II, then you’d be wrong. Clayton got paid and went into the tank. Williams is still awaiting his first big payday. This kid passes the “eyeball” test, and I said that during preseason last year. No way that he is “overvalued”.

Mike will be a stud 11 tds as a rookie, come on now Footballguys... wake up here I know you guys are running out of stuff to talk about but lets get real

See 4 posts above you.

 

[Zdravko]

I gotta wonder how many of those dismissing the OPs data suffer from serious owner-bias. Sure, Mike Williams looks great on highlight reels. Nevertheless, the OP makes three points here that just can't be ignored without explanation:

1. Mike Williams does have a low catch % for his style of play.

2. Mike Williams does have a notably lower catch % than his QB's completion %.

3. Mike Williams does have a really high TD/target ratio, which we know from experience is unlikely to stick.

These are 'caution' signs to me. Not that I wouldn't draft Mike Williams because of them, but I'd look to understand why the numbers look like that. "Mike Williams is a stud" and "Watch the video" just don't cut it for me.

From my own memory, I do recall Freeman forcing plenty of throws to Mike Williams and throwing the ball away in Mike Williams' general direction. This would indeed fit as an explanation for a) low catch %, b) high TD ratio, c) lots of highlight reel plays. I also recall Mike Williams being basically the only RZ option. (Some of you may scream about Blount here - just google "Blount red zone issues".) I am not planning to re-watch 474 Freeman throws in order to confirm. So, solely based on my own episodic observations, I am okay with accepting the hypothesis that the numbers show MOSTLY the effect of many forced throws and being a lone RZ option.

But then what does the future look like in Tampa?

Despite all the hype I read, I don't see Freeman becoming a QB that averages more than 30-31 throws a game. It's just not his game. He started strong in the pass attempts column last year, but averaged below 28 per game in his last 10 games. Freeman is not a pass-pass-pass QB.

Mike Williams averaged 27% of all targets last year. I think this number goes down a bit as Tampa becomes a more balanced offense, with more variety in the passing game. I also think Freeman stops forcing the ball to Mike Williams as much and boosts his completion percentage with some shorter options.

So if we ballpark-estimate Freeman at 31 throws per game and give Mike Williams 25% of those throws -> that's 7.75 targets per game. Even if we bump the catch rate to a rock-solid 60% (very optimistic?), that's 4.65 catches per game. At 14 yards a pop (optimistic?), that's just above 1000 yards. Not bad, but hardly spectacular.

Which leaves us with the TDs. Excluding the 5 TD game against Seattle in Week 16, Freeman threw slightly over 1 TD per game. I fully expect that number to go up, but how much? 1.5 TDs per game? Don't forget the running game should be better, especially in the RZ. Let's say 24 TDs or 1.5 per game (again, optimistic?).

Mike Williams accounted for 44% of Freeman's TDs. That's very high. There is only a handful of players who had such a percentage (Bowe, Mike Wallace, Greg Jennings, Steve Johnson) and it's extremely rare to see it repeated in multiple years in a row. If we project Mike Williams to get 40% of Freeman's TD passes (again, optimistic?), that's still under 10 TDs.

To sum it all up, I'd say 75/1000/10 is very close to the ceiling in 2011. Is Mike Williams being overdrafted? Based on latest MFL data, he is the 15th WR off the board. I think 75/1000/10 is reasonable expectation for the WR15, but remember that the 75/1000/10 is a ceiling, not a median. So yes, Mike Williams is being overdrafted.

 

[IHEARTFF]

nice post zd

 

[Multiple Scores]

Lots of overthinking going on. Someone says benn is the play... Come on, keep it real.

 

[Zdravko]

I don't know if Benn is the play...and I haven't seen enough from Benn to make a judgment. He does have draft pedigree, but that seems to be all he has so far.

However, even without thinking Benn is the play, I do think Benn steals a decent chunk of targets. Since there aren't too many of those to go around already, this spells 'caution' to me.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

I Think Williams is a solid receiver but im not sure his future is a perennial WR1. My prediction is by the end of this year him and Benn are both vying for the Number 1 spot. I see the same type of year he had last year with less tds.

Do you have any logical reasoning behind this thinking, other than the fact that Benn is on your fantasy team?Mike Williams severely outplayed Benn in camp in 2010, he outplayed him during the 2010 season when Benn was healthy, and now Benn is missing priceless reps because of the lockout.I see no signs that Arrelious Benn will challenge Mike Williams for anything in 2011. Benn's main competition is going to be Dezmon Briscoe, who the Bucs really like, and who will likely challenge for the starting spot opposite MW.

Yes, I do have logical reasoning behind this. I realize its crazy to you, but I made my own decision without listening to anyone else. I watched every target Benn had last year and he played fantastic when he was in there. It was made very clear last year that people were going to have to wait on Benn, How long they are going to have to wait, I'm not sure. I honestly have nothing against Williams, I think hes a solid player. I think Benn is going to be a better player, its as clear as that.

 

[Banger]

This thread was well thought out. With that said sometimes people overthink.

My thought as well. Don't overthink it, he's a very good young wr. I'm not saying I wouldn't deal him but I certainly wouldn't take some arbitrary/inconclusive data set and make decisions based on it.

 

[az_prof]

You make a very interesting argument. Catch % does matter. Most people automatically assume that a young player will experience massive improvement, but that doesn't always happen. It could be that Mike Williams will be the next Larry Fitzgerald, but the odds are much higher that is the next Michael Clayton. Bottom line: he is overvalued right now. If I own him, I want to trade him. If I don't own him, I am not looking to acquire.

 

[Instinctive]

You make a very interesting argument. Catch % does matter. Most people automatically assume that a young player will experience massive improvement, but that doesn't always happen. It could be that Mike Williams will be the next Larry Fitzgerald, but the odds are much higher that is the next Michael Clayton. Bottom line: he is overvalued right now. If I own him, I want to trade him. If I don't own him, I am not looking to acquire.

I don't think the odds are he is the next Michael Clayton - I'm just saying perhaps all isn't as peachy as we think with the guy. I myself still like him a lot. But I'm also trying to get Benn in more than a few places.

 

[Zdravko]

If I own him, I want to trade him. If I don't own him, I am not looking to acquire.

I like that summary. I don't think I would sell cheap, but I would definitely explore how much I can get.

 

[Grahamburn]

I Think Williams is a solid receiver but im not sure his future is a perennial WR1. My prediction is by the end of this year him and Benn are both vying for the Number 1 spot. I see the same type of year he had last year with less tds.

Do you have any logical reasoning behind this thinking, other than the fact that Benn is on your fantasy team?Mike Williams severely outplayed Benn in camp in 2010, he outplayed him during the 2010 season when Benn was healthy, and now Benn is missing priceless reps because of the lockout.

I see no signs that Arrelious Benn will challenge Mike Williams for anything in 2011. Benn's main competition is going to be Dezmon Briscoe, who the Bucs really like, and who will likely challenge for the starting spot opposite MW.

Yes, I do have logical reasoning behind this. I realize its crazy to you, but I made my own decision without listening to anyone else. I watched every target Benn had last year and he played fantastic when he was in there. It was made very clear last year that people were going to have to wait on Benn, How long they are going to have to wait, I'm not sure. I honestly have nothing against Williams, I think hes a solid player. I think Benn is going to be a better player, its as clear as that.

That's fair enough. I just tend to raise an eyebrow when I see someone making predictions like:

My prediction is by the end of this year him and Benn are both vying for the Number 1 spot.

Especially when they have that particular player on their team. No offense to you.Benn had 38 targets in 15 games. Williams had 128 in 16. Why do you think that was the case? Williams outplayed Benn in mini camps, OTAs, training camp, practice, and then on Sundays. The writing was on the wall who the better player was before the 2010 season. When these players were drafted, do you think the coaches for Tampa had decided beforehand who their #1 WR was going to be? I don't. They put them on the field to compete. The best man won. MW earned his spot by outplaying Benn in every facet of the WR position.

Mike Williams has first round, #1 WR talent. He put it on display in 2010. The only reason he fell to the 4th round was because of character concerns. The Bucs stole him at that spot.

Don't get me wrong, I'm a Buc fan, and I want both of these players to be successful. I think it's obvious that Benn will be a good player, but I don't think it's going to come at the expense of Mike Williams, or that Benn will surpass him as the #1 option in the passing game for the Bucs.

 

[lord_helmet]

If I own him, I want to trade him. If I don't own him, I am not looking to acquire.

Exchange Williams with Benn and that sounds reasonable.

 

[massraider]

I gotta wonder how many of those dismissing the OPs data suffer from serious owner-bias. Sure, Mike Williams looks great on highlight reels. Nevertheless, the OP makes three points here that just can't be ignored without explanation:

1. Mike Williams does have a low catch % for his style of play.

2. Mike Williams does have a notably lower catch % than his QB's completion %.

3. Mike Williams does have a really high TD/target ratio, which we know from experience is unlikely to stick.

These are 'caution' signs to me. Not that I wouldn't draft Mike Williams because of them, but I'd look to understand why the numbers look like that. "Mike Williams is a stud" and "Watch the video" just don't cut it for me.

From my own memory, I do recall Freeman forcing plenty of throws to Mike Williams and throwing the ball away in Mike Williams' general direction. This would indeed fit as an explanation for a) low catch %, b) high TD ratio, c) lots of highlight reel plays. I also recall Mike Williams being basically the only RZ option. (Some of you may scream about Blount here - just google "Blount red zone issues".) I am not planning to re-watch 474 Freeman throws in order to confirm. So, solely based on my own episodic observations, I am okay with accepting the hypothesis that the numbers show MOSTLY the effect of many forced throws and being a lone RZ option.

But then what does the future look like in Tampa?

Despite all the hype I read, I don't see Freeman becoming a QB that averages more than 30-31 throws a game. It's just not his game. He started strong in the pass attempts column last year, but averaged below 28 per game in his last 10 games. Freeman is not a pass-pass-pass QB.

Mike Williams averaged 27% of all targets last year. I think this number goes down a bit as Tampa becomes a more balanced offense, with more variety in the passing game. I also think Freeman stops forcing the ball to Mike Williams as much and boosts his completion percentage with some shorter options.

So if we ballpark-estimate Freeman at 31 throws per game and give Mike Williams 25% of those throws -> that's 7.75 targets per game. Even if we bump the catch rate to a rock-solid 60% (very optimistic?), that's 4.65 catches per game. At 14 yards a pop (optimistic?), that's just above 1000 yards. Not bad, but hardly spectacular.

Which leaves us with the TDs. Excluding the 5 TD game against Seattle in Week 16, Freeman threw slightly over 1 TD per game. I fully expect that number to go up, but how much? 1.5 TDs per game? Don't forget the running game should be better, especially in the RZ. Let's say 24 TDs or 1.5 per game (again, optimistic?).

Mike Williams accounted for 44% of Freeman's TDs. That's very high. There is only a handful of players who had such a percentage (Bowe, Mike Wallace, Greg Jennings, Steve Johnson) and it's extremely rare to see it repeated in multiple years in a row. If we project Mike Williams to get 40% of Freeman's TD passes (again, optimistic?), that's still under 10 TDs.

To sum it all up, I'd say 75/1000/10 is very close to the ceiling in 2011. Is Mike Williams being overdrafted? Based on latest MFL data, he is the 15th WR off the board. I think 75/1000/10 is reasonable expectation for the WR15, but remember that the 75/1000/10 is a ceiling, not a median. So yes, Mike Williams is being overdrafted.

This is a great post. I went back and looked at a few WRs, specifically their catch percentage. Williams' was low, no matter how you slice it (and I was looking for a reason to pooh-pooh the numbers). Was the ball forced to him, skewing the numbers? Maybe, but he isn't the first WR that has happened to. Did teams focus on him? Maybe, but he isn't the first guy to be gameplanned for. I think it's a valid concern.

Real quick, on the original premise of the thread: Is Williams being overdrafted? I don't think so. Based on the comments in here from the Williams backers, you might think so, but he is going at WR14 or so, according to MFL (PPR). If we use Zdravko's ceiling above (and I think that is a low ceiling, more on that in a minute) those are good numbers for WR14. 75/1000/10 are very good numbers for WR14, more than reasonable. Leaving that aside, a guy can't just be 'overdrafted' in a vacuum. There needs to be guys drafted after him that are more valuable, no?

Link to MFL ADP (no mocks) in PPR, redraft. Williams is right behind Reggie Wayne (Heady company, maybe he IS overdrafted).

The next WRs being drafted, on average:

Jeremy Maclin

Brandon Marshall

Marques Colston

Steve Johnson

Sidney Rice

Wes Welker

Percy Harvin

Kenny Britt

Maclin has less question marks than the rest, but I don't think anyone is expecting WR1 numbers from him, he just won't be the focal point of the offense. The rest of these guys have some serious questions (although it appears Welker is underrated, again). If Williams is overdrafted, there should be some strong arguments that several of these guys project better than Williams. I'm not seeing it. Looks to me like Williams is going about where he should. In redraft, I'd probably take Welker over him, and think about Steve Johnson. Looking at it, if I was coming round the turn at 3/4, looking for my WR2, and that was my list of guys available, I'd be thinking there's a pretty big tier here, that drops off after Williams, Johnson and Welker. Some of these other guys are going to put up good numbers with whichever QB they get stuck with, but who can forecast that now?

Regarding the ceiling for Williams:

I think there's a good chance that everyone needs to throw preconceived notions out the window. Freeman was not a hyped fantasy prospect as a rookie. Williams was the problem child that hadn't played football in over a year. A quarterback that goes from 10 TDs and 18 INT to 25 and 6 in his second year, throwing to two rookies and a gimpy Winslow? Maybe we need to be more excited about this guy. Maybe his ceiling as a QB is a bit higher than people think. And maybe, almost certainly, Williams and Freeman can both get better. I think that people are still assuming the Bucs are going with the grind-it-out, high-percentage offense, hide the young QB etc. We might need to be ready for the notion that the Bucs and their young QB can whip it around a bit. It's kind of early to say what is or isn't Freeman's game, I think. This guy might be a lot more than a game manager.

I am a big believer that less-heralded players take longer to convince fantasy players that they need to get on board. It's tough to look at a guy that you didn't think was worth it as a rookie, after one year, and admit you were wrong. It goes against our nature. When a guy likes a player, and he goes off, it's "I called it!" When a player people didn't believe in goes off, it's "Yeah, let's see if he can do it again...." You will find almost no one that doubts Dez Bryant's talent, we aren't hearing that, and few Bryant owner would trade him for Williams. But Williams vastly surpassed his numbers, and doesn't have Witten and Austin around to take his looks.

 

[Grahamburn]

 

[eakfootball]

Looking at this data, I think that it's sobering to notice that Mike Williams is closest to Roy Williams (excluding the speedsters). Then you have Braylon and Reggie Brown next. I think that one can look at the catch percentages of the people around Mike Williams in his own rookie year compared to all the top receivers from the past 7 years, and one can see that the only guys with catch percentages below 60% all went on to be what I would term basically busts - with the exception of Bowe and kind of Holmes.

Braylon went on to 80-1289-16 in his 3rd season. I could live with that.

But what else has he done with his career? A big game or two with the Jets? That's like saying Brandon Lloyd hasn't been a total bust just on the basis of last year.

I think you're nitpicking at a small point here in a decently large amount of data. One great season does not a career make - just ask Michael Bennett or Kevan Barlow. They had RB careers kind of similar to Braylon. One great year, disappointment followed.

Now yes, there is a lot of value in one great season - I'm not saying TB Mike goes one way just based on this. But it's a lot of data with some not-so-great implications.

Lloyd was a 4th round pick. If a 4th rounder ever produces a season like last year, there is no way he can be called a bust.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

I Think Williams is a solid receiver but im not sure his future is a perennial WR1. My prediction is by the end of this year him and Benn are both vying for the Number 1 spot. I see the same type of year he had last year with less tds.

Do you have any logical reasoning behind this thinking, other than the fact that Benn is on your fantasy team?Mike Williams severely outplayed Benn in camp in 2010, he outplayed him during the 2010 season when Benn was healthy, and now Benn is missing priceless reps because of the lockout.

I see no signs that Arrelious Benn will challenge Mike Williams for anything in 2011. Benn's main competition is going to be Dezmon Briscoe, who the Bucs really like, and who will likely challenge for the starting spot opposite MW.

Yes, I do have logical reasoning behind this. I realize its crazy to you, but I made my own decision without listening to anyone else. I watched every target Benn had last year and he played fantastic when he was in there. It was made very clear last year that people were going to have to wait on Benn, How long they are going to have to wait, I'm not sure. I honestly have nothing against Williams, I think hes a solid player. I think Benn is going to be a better player, its as clear as that.

That's fair enough. I just tend to raise an eyebrow when I see someone making predictions like:

My prediction is by the end of this year him and Benn are both vying for the Number 1 spot.

Especially when they have that particular player on their team. No offense to you.Benn had 38 targets in 15 games. Williams had 128 in 16. Why do you think that was the case? Williams outplayed Benn in mini camps, OTAs, training camp, practice, and then on Sundays. The writing was on the wall who the better player was before the 2010 season. When these players were drafted, do you think the coaches for Tampa had decided beforehand who their #1 WR was going to be? I don't. They put them on the field to compete. The best man won. MW earned his spot by outplaying Benn in every facet of the WR position.

Mike Williams has first round, #1 WR talent. He put it on display in 2010. The only reason he fell to the 4th round was because of character concerns. The Bucs stole him at that spot.

Don't get me wrong, I'm a Buc fan, and I want both of these players to be successful. I think it's obvious that Benn will be a good player, but I don't think it's going to come at the expense of Mike Williams, or that Benn will surpass him as the #1 option in the passing game for the Bucs.

I didn't have Benn on my roster till after I came to the conclusion that I thought he would emerge... Then I went and got him for next to nothing. he caught 66% of those targets. He was also stopped on the 1 yard line 3 times on deep passes. I would say those are pretty solid numbers. 25 catches for 395 yards and 2 tds on 38 targets...those are solid numbers...especially if those 3 other targets almost went for touchdowns. I think we can agree to disagree on this one .

 

[Zdravko]

I am guessing most drafts at this point are dynasty startups, even if they are classified as redraft on MFL. I think mid-grade WR2 has to be fair placement here. When you get to that tier, there are enough question marks and subjective preferences to validate almost any ranking order. I personally would take someone like Marshall or Britt before Mike Williams, but I have no problem understanding how someone would go the other way.

Interestingly enough, when you include all drafts, Mike Williams drops from WR14 to WR17. I would take that MFL data with a grain of salt.

Now here is a question:

Knowing what you know, would you rather have AJ Green, Julio Jones or Mike Williams in dynasty?

 

[Instinctive]

I am nto sure on Green vs Mike, but Julio is easily third place there for me.

I'm nto trying to say the guy will bust. I'm just saying there's more risk there than people seem to think.

 

[Instinctive]

So far, through 4 weeks, here is some Mike Williams data:

(I don't know how to use the code boxes correctly or I would...)

Week 1: 4 rec, 50 yards, 1 TD ---> 10 targets

Week 2: 1 rec, -4 yards ---------> 4 targets

Week 3: 5 rec, 43 yards ---------> 8 targets

Week 4: 5 rec, 66 yards --------> 8 targets

So he's got a catch percentage of exactly 50% of all targets (consistent with his low catch percentage last season) and his value has been entirely dependent upon TDs - which so far have gone mostly to Blount and Freeman rushing.

I'm sure he'll turn it around - well, I doubt he'll be this bad most of the year, but it seems some assertions were correct:

1. He needs a ton of targets because he doesn't really catch the ball all that well

2. His value has a lot of dependence on TDs

Does anyone else have any thoughts on this situation? Still a big fan, just a couple off games, even lower on him than I am, or just like me - expecting a better rest of season, but not an exceptional one?

 

[Sabertooth]

This team just appears to be nothing special. They are struggling to make the step from upstart to contender. I think they struggle all season. Another two things I noticed that tend to make me think they lack the professionalism of a team like Green Bay, New England, or even Atlanta. They complain about almost every call. And they must lead the league in untucked jerseys. Now, I know these aren't big deals. But it does seem like it is a rather loose ship being run by the young coach down there. Not sure why those two things stuck out to me. But they did.

 

[shnikies]

Shaky premise (1st year catch percentage is in an indicator of future success) cherry picked data (eliminating speed guys) and glaring omissions (Fitzgerald? Well, he wasn't top 3, Calvin? well he was top 3, but "I am not putting Calvin because he was injured - wouldn't want that to hurt the data" - which conveniently ignores the fact he played 15 games that year).

Mike Williams may indeed be a bust, but I wouldn't come to that conclusion based on these numbers. To paraphrase Raiderfan32904, we need to look at the correlation of catch percentage of long term successful receivers to draw any meaningful conclusions.

While I appreciate the time and effort to put this together, I don't see anything here to cause me to conclude that Mike Williams may indeed be drastically overrated.

Im not shocked to see Williams catch percentage that mich lower than Freemans completion percentage. Especially as the season progressed, every time willliams was thrown at, he had multpile defenders draped all over him. I think a healthy Benn or any quality #2 WR will help Williams, not hurt him.

Had Clayton and Wiliams not both played for the bucs, there would be no comparing the two. Im not even a huge Williams fan, and it is possible he busts, but his low catch percentage or because he plays for the same team as Michael Clayton did will have notihng to do with it. i like Williams as a solid #2, but i wouldnt want to count on him as my #1 WR.

I think yards per attempt or touchdowns per attempt for throws to Williams compared to overall would make more sense for him.

 

[fightingillini]

It definitely looks to me that MW will struggle against teams that can put pressure on Freeman. Freeman looks like he has happy feet in the pocket and likes to dump it off to a back or Winslow.

What's really concerning is that they aren't targeting MW in the redzone like they should. Looking at last years 11 TD, they came from the following distances.....1,3,7,8,18,20,20,24,35,47,58. Definitely relied on the big play and TB isn't currently getting those big plays.

All you can do is hold MW for now.

 

[jdoggydogg]

I think this week's matchup vs. San Francisco is big for Williams.

I don't think Tampa will be able to run the football, so I expect a lot of passing vs. that poor SF secondary. I love watching Mike play - he's a talented receiver. But if he has a mediocre game vs. the 49ers this week, I don't know how you can trust him in your lineup for the time being.

 

[cubbie5150]

I think this week's matchup vs. San Francisco is big for Williams. I don't think Tampa will be able to run the football, so I expect a lot of passing vs. that poor SF secondary. I love watching Mike play - he's a talented receiver. But if he has a mediocre game vs. the 49ers this week, I don't know how you can trust him in your lineup for the time being.

Yep, I agree w/ this. Week 5 will be my last shot w/ Mike in my lineup until week 9 BYEs if he doesn't produce. I haven't watched every offensive snap, but it definitely seems to me that Freeman is dinking & dunking a lot. Earnest Graham is catching a lot of balls, and why no corner routes w/ Mike in the end zone this year?

 

[jdoggydogg]

I think this week's matchup vs. San Francisco is big for Williams. I don't think Tampa will be able to run the football, so I expect a lot of passing vs. that poor SF secondary. I love watching Mike play - he's a talented receiver. But if he has a mediocre game vs. the 49ers this week, I don't know how you can trust him in your lineup for the time being.

Yep, I agree w/ this. Week 5 will be my last shot w/ Mike in my lineup until week 9 BYEs if he doesn't produce. I haven't watched every offensive snap, but it definitely seems to me that Freeman is dinking & dunking a lot. Earnest Graham is catching a lot of balls, and why no corner routes w/ Mike in the end zone this year?

I haven't checked on Tampa's red zone efficiency. But it occurs to me that they'd be more efficient feeding the ball to Williams consistently near the goal line. He has excellent hands and body control, and his skills are hard to cope with in the end zone.

 

[FF Ninja]

I haven't checked on Tampa's red zone efficiency. But it occurs to me that they'd be more efficient feeding the ball to Williams consistently near the goal line. He has excellent hands and body control, and his skills are hard to cope with in the end zone.

So he's got a catch percentage of exactly 50% of all targets (consistent with his low catch percentage last season)

Good analysis, jdoggydogg. I suggest you contact Raheem Morris immediately.I'm not saying his catch % necessarily means has bad hands, but that you sound a lot more like a MW owner than a future NFL OC...

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

I realize everyone is tempering there enthusiasm on the Bucs after looking bad in there first 4 games...but they are 3-1

 

[Instinctive]

I realize everyone is tempering there enthusiasm on the Bucs after looking bad in there first 4 games...but they are 3-1

What does that have to do with how well Mike Williams will do as a fantasy receiver?ETA: not to mention the OP is from before the season began

 

[jdoggydogg]

I haven't checked on Tampa's red zone efficiency. But it occurs to me that they'd be more efficient feeding the ball to Williams consistently near the goal line. He has excellent hands and body control, and his skills are hard to cope with in the end zone.

So he's got a catch percentage of exactly 50% of all targets (consistent with his low catch percentage last season)

Good analysis, jdoggydogg. I suggest you contact Raheem Morris immediately.I'm not saying his catch % necessarily means has bad hands, but that you sound a lot more like a MW owner than a future NFL OC...

Unlike most of the posters here? I wasn't aware this forum was stocked with offensive coordinators But seriously...

It occurs to me that the Tampa running game is good, but not dominant. And therefore, stretching the field a bit with your receivers opens up more holes for the running game. Just sayin'.

 

[rickyg]

I realize everyone is tempering there enthusiasm on the Bucs after looking bad in there first 4 games...but they are 3-1

What does that have to do with how well Mike Williams will do as a fantasy receiver?

ETA: not to mention the OP is from before the season began

It has everything to do with it. The fact that they are winning while freeman plays it safe with the dink and dunk check downs and feeding the ball to blount means they will continue to do it. As long as they are winning games like this then we can expect more of the same from MW with the occasional TD. NO bueno. We need TB to falter with this plan and start losing and then you will start hearing R. Morris talk about putting the ball into his playmaker's hands, like MW.

 

[Instinctive]

I realize everyone is tempering there enthusiasm on the Bucs after looking bad in there first 4 games...but they are 3-1

What does that have to do with how well Mike Williams will do as a fantasy receiver?

ETA: not to mention the OP is from before the season began

It has everything to do with it. The fact that they are winning while freeman plays it safe with the dink and dunk check downs and feeding the ball to blount means they will continue to do it. As long as they are winning games like this then we can expect more of the same from MW with the occasional TD. NO bueno. We need TB to falter with this plan and start losing and then you will start hearing R. Morris talk about putting the ball into his playmaker's hands, like MW.

I think the quoted post does an incredibly poor job of getting that point across, if that is indeed what he means.And isn't every coach's dream to run the ball whenever you can and use the short passing game when you need to?

The upcoming schedule screams for a need to score though - a couple against NO and some other bigger offenses could lead to some nice final statlines for Mike here.

I wouldn't be surprised if he has some good games coming up. Then again, I wouldn't be surprised if he continues to be a bit of a dud. The risk of him doing what I thought he would before the season, for the rest of the season, is too great for me to want him on my team for the potential reward. I'd prefer a more solid guy that I can count on (one who has hands that actually catch the ball too)

 

[jdoggydogg]

I wouldn't be surprised if he has some good games coming up. Then again, I wouldn't be surprised if he continues to be a bit of a dud. The risk of him doing what I thought he would before the season, for the rest of the season, is too great for me to want him on my team for the potential reward. I'd prefer a more solid guy that I can count on (one who has hands that actually catch the ball too)

If this week's 49er matchup goes well for Mike - and I think it will - then that'll be indicative of what we should expect to see for the rest of the season. Tampa does not want to throw the ball 40 times a game. They'd rather grind it out with short passes and the running game. Games where the defense and / or a powerful opposing offense that could force Tampa to throw the ball a lot:

San Francisco

New Orleans (x2)

Green Bay

Carolina (x2)

Dallas

To me, the above are seven games where I expect Mike Williams to do well.

Games that could be close where Tampa may play it more conservative:

Chicago

Houston

Tennessee

Jacksonville

Atlanta

These games could be much more conservative, however. I'd make the case that you should bench Williams in these games.

 

[LawFitz]

1 Det 4 50 1 13

2 @Min 1 -4 0 0.1

3 Atl 5 43 0 6.8

4 Ind 5 66 0 9.4

5 @SF - - - -

6 NO - - - -

7 Chi - - - -

8 BYE - - - -

9 @NO - - - -

10 Hou - - - -

11 @GB - - - -

12 @Ten - - - -

13 Car - - - -

14 @Jac - - - -

15 Dal - - - -

16 @Car - - - -

17 @Atl - - - -

Only one bad offense after week 5 and several stud offenses mixed in. Freeman is like Big Ben. He scores more when the team needs him to. Tampa Mike will get his over this coming stretch.

 

[FF Ninja]

I haven't checked on Tampa's red zone efficiency. But it occurs to me that they'd be more efficient feeding the ball to Williams consistently near the goal line. He has excellent hands and body control, and his skills are hard to cope with in the end zone.

So he's got a catch percentage of exactly 50% of all targets (consistent with his low catch percentage last season)

Good analysis, jdoggydogg. I suggest you contact Raheem Morris immediately.I'm not saying his catch % necessarily means has bad hands, but that you sound a lot more like a MW owner than a future NFL OC...

Unlike most of the posters here? I wasn't aware this forum was stocked with offensive coordinators But seriously...

It occurs to me that the Tampa running game is good, but not dominant. And therefore, stretching the field a bit with your receivers opens up more holes for the running game. Just sayin'.

Ha, I know, but I had to give you a hard time for essentially saying what every fantasy owner let's himself believe: The coach is dumb. Clearly they'd be better off if my fantasy player got more opportunities.

 

[jdoggydogg]

I haven't checked on Tampa's red zone efficiency. But it occurs to me that they'd be more efficient feeding the ball to Williams consistently near the goal line. He has excellent hands and body control, and his skills are hard to cope with in the end zone.

So he's got a catch percentage of exactly 50% of all targets (consistent with his low catch percentage last season)

Good analysis, jdoggydogg. I suggest you contact Raheem Morris immediately.I'm not saying his catch % necessarily means has bad hands, but that you sound a lot more like a MW owner than a future NFL OC...

Unlike most of the posters here? I wasn't aware this forum was stocked with offensive coordinators But seriously...

It occurs to me that the Tampa running game is good, but not dominant. And therefore, stretching the field a bit with your receivers opens up more holes for the running game. Just sayin'.

Ha, I know, but I had to give you a hard time for essentially saying what every fantasy owner let's himself believe: The coach is dumb. Clearly they'd be better off if my fantasy player got more opportunities.

No, I'd never claim that Raheem Morris and the Tampa coaches are dumb. Not at all. It just occurs to me that much like Calvin Johnson, Tampa has a big WR that's hard to contain at the goal-line.

 

[LawFitz]

It just occurs to me that much like Calvin Johnson, Tampa has a big WR that's hard to contain at the goal-line.

I love Tampa Mike but comparing him to Megatron is absurd.

 

[loose circuits]

eventually defenses will come up and defend those dumps and Blount or Tampa will continue to win games. As a result, Mike W will get his...