wasted space 25
Footballguy
10 touches is realistic too. AP will still get his and i think Harvin will be spreading the field like no other.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
The Percy Harvin Hype machine (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter albuddah
- Start date
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
Can you explain what you think the break down will be to get those 1000 yards and 8 TD's?Just Win Baby said:
Tau837
Footballguy
If he gets 10 touches per game? 1000 yards is a lock, unless you think that means mostly carries (and assuming he plays 16 games)... and with both AP and Taylor on the team, I don't see him getting more than 5 carries per game.If he does get 10 touches from scrimmage per game, which is what the post I responded to suggested as a floor, I'd assume that means 4-5 carries and 5-6 receptions per game. I'd assume he'll average no less than 4 ypc and 10 ypr, and IMO those are extremely conservative averages. that means a minimum of 75 yards from scrimmage per game, which over 16 games is 1200 yards. So to get 1000 total yards, he obviously doesn't actually require 10 touches per game, especially since he could easily average a lot more yards per carry and per reception.As for the TDs, 8 TDs on 160 touches (10 per game) is only 1 every 20 touches. For an electric player like Harvin, I think that is reasonable, if not conservative.
Last edited by a moderator:
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
First off thanks for posting.I think people need to take a deep breath and start putting these numbers into context.....If Harvin was to catch on average 5 to 6 receptions a game that would be really good numbers for an every down WR who is the number 1 option on most teams and there are number 2 guys who get on average 5 to 6 receptios a game but those guys come from the Colts and Cardinals and Patriots of the league. 5 receptions a game over a 16 game season would put Harvin at 80 receptions. If you bump it up to 6 receptions a game that would be 96 receptions on the season. On average about 15 WR's catch 80 passes on the year playing full time out of the WR spot. D. Jackson who played as an every down WR last season and played phenominal as a rookie wr caught 62 balls for 912 yards with 2 TD's to go along with 17 rush attempts for 96 yards and 1 TD. Jackson had 1008 total yards last season with 3 total TDs. Could Harvin be the Jackson if this year? Maybe, but my bet is he will struggle to get to 50 receptions as a rookie. I think a safe and realistic projection for Harvin in the minny offense would be this...2.8 catches per game which is 46 catches at 12.6 YPC (which is even high considering I think most of his catches will come out of the slot) would be 579.6 yards with 1 TD.32 rush attempts at 5.5 ypc would be 176 yards, with 1 TDTotal: 579 recieving yards 176 rushing yards 755 total yards 2 total TD'sHe will be a spot starter at best. If he keeps his head on straight the sky is the limit with this guy though.
SSOG
Moderator
Strongly agree with all of this, although personally I see Harvin putting up higher ypr averages (14-15) and ypc averages (5-6)... and significantly fewer than 10 touches from scrimmage per game. More like 6-7 touches per game (~60 rushes and 40-50 receptions on the year), with a bit of upside on those numbers depending on how things shake out.
Tau837
Footballguy
Just to be clear, I responded to someone else who suggested he'd get 10-12 touches per game but said he wasn't sure what kind of numbers that would yield. 10 touches per game wasn't my number. However, working out the numbers, I think it's clear that he can reach 1000/8, the numbers you questioned me on, with far fewer than 10 touches per game. He probably needs only 6-7 touches per game to do that, in line with SSOG's post above.You are projecting fewer than 5 touches from scrimmage per game for Harvin. I think you're pretty far off base on that and on your 2 TD prediction. And probably your yards per reception projection as well.
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
I have Harvin at 4.8 touches per game.... If his touches per game is higher than 5, it would be due to Harvin getting more rushing attempts as opposed to recieving the ball.
Also, I am of the belief that Harvin is going to line up as a slot reciever or primarily as guy that works underneath stuff with screen and check downs etc. Therefore his YPC will be hard pressed to be up higher than 13. In relation to other very good WR's that work a lot of underneath stuff and screens and check down stuff that is a pretty good number.
For instance, Boldin 11.7 ypc, Welker 10.5 ypc, A. Gonzalez 11. 6 ypc, Houshy 9.8, Royal 10.8, Ward 12.9, Cotchery 12.1, Moore 11.7, Mason 13
Minny already has the go deep burner in Berrian who averaged 20.1 ypc. So unless Harvin is turning many of his underneath stuff into long gains it will be tough for him this season to have a high YPC.
Also, I am of the belief that Harvin is going to line up as a slot reciever or primarily as guy that works underneath stuff with screen and check downs etc. Therefore his YPC will be hard pressed to be up higher than 13. In relation to other very good WR's that work a lot of underneath stuff and screens and check down stuff that is a pretty good number.
For instance, Boldin 11.7 ypc, Welker 10.5 ypc, A. Gonzalez 11. 6 ypc, Houshy 9.8, Royal 10.8, Ward 12.9, Cotchery 12.1, Moore 11.7, Mason 13
Minny already has the go deep burner in Berrian who averaged 20.1 ypc. So unless Harvin is turning many of his underneath stuff into long gains it will be tough for him this season to have a high YPC.
Mapmaker
Footballguy
The Hype Continues .... Peter King's MMQ Column ...
"11:45 a.m., Thursday (Minnesota Vikings camp, Mankato, Minn.): I came here expecting to see the fastest man in the NFL, Percy Harvin, ripping up Vikings camp. And I did see an incredibly gifted player, Harvin, getting coached very hard because the Vikings want him ready to play a big role on opening day 2009, not opening day 2010. But after seeing Adrian Peterson sprint around left end on an early-practice reverse like he'd just taken the baton in the Olympic 400-meter relay, I didn't know who was faster. Especially on the fast track of the Metrodome, I have no idea how teams are going to defend the Vikings when Peterson and Harvin are on the field together.
"Yesterday,"' Peterson told me with a laugh after practice, "I went up to Percy after practice when he was doing an interview with some press guys. I stood in the back and said, "My Harvin, Mr. Harvin, who do you think is faster, you or Adrian Peterson?''
This is what I wrote in my postcard from Minnesota training camp about a play I saw Harvin make: Harvin, split wide right outside the numbers, versus cornerback Marcus Walker, playing inches across the line from him, planning to get a bump on Harvin in the five-yard bump zone to knock him off his route. Harvin juked almost imperceptibly left-right-left at the snap of the ball. Walker lunged at him but only got a piece of him as Harvin got outside Walker's left shoulder at the line. NFL corners, and highlight producers in TV stations across the country, are going to see a lot of this. Harvin is so quick off the line, then so fast, that if you give him a half-step and don't have a safety over the top for double-coverage help, the Vikings are going to throw a lot of deep touchdowns to this man. On this play, Walker never caught up, and the deep throw nestled cleanly in Harvin's arms. Touchdown.
I expect Harvin to have the opportunity to be the Offensive Rookie of the Year. He's too talented, and he has Peterson to take the pressure off him. And vice versa. "
Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writ...l#ixzz0NlolElGK
"11:45 a.m., Thursday (Minnesota Vikings camp, Mankato, Minn.): I came here expecting to see the fastest man in the NFL, Percy Harvin, ripping up Vikings camp. And I did see an incredibly gifted player, Harvin, getting coached very hard because the Vikings want him ready to play a big role on opening day 2009, not opening day 2010. But after seeing Adrian Peterson sprint around left end on an early-practice reverse like he'd just taken the baton in the Olympic 400-meter relay, I didn't know who was faster. Especially on the fast track of the Metrodome, I have no idea how teams are going to defend the Vikings when Peterson and Harvin are on the field together.
"Yesterday,"' Peterson told me with a laugh after practice, "I went up to Percy after practice when he was doing an interview with some press guys. I stood in the back and said, "My Harvin, Mr. Harvin, who do you think is faster, you or Adrian Peterson?''
This is what I wrote in my postcard from Minnesota training camp about a play I saw Harvin make: Harvin, split wide right outside the numbers, versus cornerback Marcus Walker, playing inches across the line from him, planning to get a bump on Harvin in the five-yard bump zone to knock him off his route. Harvin juked almost imperceptibly left-right-left at the snap of the ball. Walker lunged at him but only got a piece of him as Harvin got outside Walker's left shoulder at the line. NFL corners, and highlight producers in TV stations across the country, are going to see a lot of this. Harvin is so quick off the line, then so fast, that if you give him a half-step and don't have a safety over the top for double-coverage help, the Vikings are going to throw a lot of deep touchdowns to this man. On this play, Walker never caught up, and the deep throw nestled cleanly in Harvin's arms. Touchdown.
I expect Harvin to have the opportunity to be the Offensive Rookie of the Year. He's too talented, and he has Peterson to take the pressure off him. And vice versa. "
Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writ...l#ixzz0NlolElGK
FunkyPlutos
Footballguy
Before the "hype" started, I sent Heyward-Bey and James Hardy for Harvin.
Maven
Footballguy
I'm pointing out Vikings WRs under Bevell and Childress wont surpass 100 looks in this offense, period.
LaneOfSteel™
Footballguy
Anyone have a gauge as to his price in auction drafts?
Gopher State
Footballguy
The highlight of the afternoon practice, which was held in shorts and shells, was Sage Rosenfels’ 52-yard touchdown pass to Percy Harvin in an 11-on-11 drill. Harvin got behind cornerback Marcus Walker on the play. Harvin has made Walker’s life extremely difficult in this camp.
Minneapolis Star & Tribune
Like the hype continue
Minneapolis Star & Tribune
Like the hype continue
sholditch
Footballguy
He might just not see the logic of using a WR in a goal-line package when you have the best back in the league. I'm having a bit of trouble with that one myself. Why on earth would a coach sit the best back in the league for a rookie WR? Seriously, can you hear yourself?
dmac37
Footballguy
Dynasty PPR start up 12 team money league $400 salaryHarvin was WR #30 and went for $20To me a low risk HIGH reward in dynasty
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Nobody's talking about sitting the best back in the league. We're talking about a WR/RB who can play multiple roles at the goal-line.Also, check your history on Peterson's goal-line use. He was like 25th in the league in goal-line carries last season and often came out in favor of Chester Taylor.
sholditch
Footballguy
look, no one doubts that harvin is skilled and will get the ball. but saying they're going to to give it to him on the goal line is maybe something they would get away with once. It won't be anything you can really count on, just like end-arounds and wildcat runs and reverses. So getting consistent value out of Harvin from a fantasy perspective is going to require him learning to be a route-based, full-time receiver. I'm just saying that might take a while given the system he's used to playing in. I'm not saying he's not super talented, just that he will have an abnormally high learning curve transitioning to a pro-style role, and that's what you're going to be able to count on week to week.
baconisgood
Footballguy
A note to those who wonder where Harvin's production will come from, the 2008 Vikings were
11th in total plays
12th in the league in total points
17th in total yards
18th in first downs.
Adding a very skilled player can simply increase the offenses effectiveness without necessarily taking many touches away from anyone else.
If Harvin is effective
AP will benefit a small amount
Berrian stays the same
Taylor gets knocked down
#2/#3 WR gets knocked down
T Jax goes way up into top 15 QB range.
11th in total plays
12th in the league in total points
17th in total yards
18th in first downs.
Adding a very skilled player can simply increase the offenses effectiveness without necessarily taking many touches away from anyone else.
If Harvin is effective
AP will benefit a small amount
Berrian stays the same
Taylor gets knocked down
#2/#3 WR gets knocked down
T Jax goes way up into top 15 QB range.
baconisgood
Footballguy
TJax's value goes up because of his scrambling ability, having Harvin and Berrian could pull both safeties out of the way and he could see an additional 10-20 yards a game rushing because of it.ceo3west said:
Unlucky
Phenom
I'm beginning to think so. 808 yds and 5 TDs shouldn't be that out of range. Now, will he match Calvin's year 2: 1330 and 12? Not a chance. We all keep trying to fit Harvin into some mold. Is he DeSean Jackson like? Peter Warrick? Devin Hester? Ted Ginn? I'm not a fan of any of these comparisons. Calvin Johnson isn't a good comparison either. Is Joey Galloway a good comparison? Burner speed, both 5'11" and 190 to 195 lbs. Galloway posted 1193 total yds and 8 TDs his rookie year with Rick Mirer at QB. It's hard for me to remember exactly how Galloway was used in college, but here are his stats: Junior Year: 47/946/11 receivingSenior Year: 44/669/7Galloway also returned punts for Seattle, returning 36 for 360 yds and 1 TD as a rookie. Harvin is going to return punts, no? Anyone have a better comparison than Galloway?Maven said:
Polyethylene Bag
Footballguy
Reggie Bush
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
OK, it's up and running at Rotoworld. Here's this year's version of the Adrian Peterson/Chris Johnson hype train a/k/a love letter to Percy Harvin.
Yes. Crabtree isn't signed and, as a result, is highly unlikely to make an impact this year.
-jb-
Footballguy
Sorry, should have specified...in dynasty format.
EBF
Footballguy
Chester becomes the starting RB and the offense keeps rolling.I like Harvin, but I think the RB aspect of his game has been exaggerated. IMO he's first and foremost a WR. My hope is that he becomes like a more explosive Wes Welker. A safety valve who can also get deep and hit home runs.I'm looking forward to seeing him on the field in the next few weeks. We'll see how much they decide to use him in the backfield, though they might not unveil their real plans for him until opening day.
Futeki
Footballguy
I think I agree. I wonder if Taylor is just good enough to keep the other teams honest and the Vikings will be able to and need to rely more on Harvin's explosiveness and versatility.I like looking at how thinks might break for one of my potential players if something major occurs. I think the upside for Harvin is that he would not produce less with an injury to the major cog in his offense. I don't think I can say that for most players.
ScottyFargo
Footballguy
Game time decision... tweaked his shoulder last practice of TC. 
gregjcross
Footballguy
Isnt this the third critical deadline Harvin has not been present for, like, the first spring practice, the rookie symposium (sick) and now the first game?Funny feeling his story is going to be "What could have been....." But whatever, he might be great as early as week 1.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Is the first preseason game a critical deadline?Harvin could have played. The Vikes just chose to use extreme caution.
Avery
Footballguy
I don't know if it's analogous, but I remember the Titans barely showing Chris Johnson in the pre-season last year because they knew what they had in him and didn't want the rest of the NFL to get wind of what a central part of their offense he would be. Now I know the WR position is more complex and Harvin needs some game experience but I'm just sayin'...
Chicago Hooligan
Footballguy
Jeff Fisher vs. Brad Childress though
Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
Of course.-jb- said:
SSOG
Moderator
The Cards also downplayed Boldin's role in the offense during preseason his rookie year.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Damn, that sucks. All of us Percy Harvin supporters received zero fantasy points for preseason week one.
Last edited by a moderator:
karmarooster
Footballguy
Hi Fear and Loathing, i'm new to the FBGs community. i appreciate your thread and blog, tho; i've been reading your articles over the summer during my dynasty start up. i recently traded for harvin. i wanna get down to some projections and figure out if he will be a legit WR3 in PPR format, or if he's really only a bye-week fill in as a WR4/5. I just don't buy the talk that Childress is too stupid to use Harvin effectively. then why did he draft harvin in the first round? Childress knows his job is on the line and that he probably should've been fired last year. as such my numbers are high, and they are too high for you, then i know i've got a problem because i know you are the conductor on this hype train!Fear & Loathing said:
Minnesota rushing stats last year:
Peterson 363
Taylor 101
Tjax 23
Frerotte 19
Berrian 4
Duggan 4 = total 514464 rushes from RB1 and 2. I'm estimating Harvin will average about 5 carries per game. not at the expense of peterson, but chester taylor. while taylor will still be the nominal 3rd down back because i'm sure he's a better blocker than percy, i still think harvin will get SOME carries on first and second down. 5 per game is nothing. i expect the vikings to use Harvin to limit Peterson's touches SOMEWHAT in order to prolong his career. he won't last too many years in the NFL going over 370 rushes (363 + 20 in the playoffs). AP will still get a healthy dose of 350 rushes (about 22 avg. per game).
Peterson 350
Harvin 75
Taylor 75 = 500 total, plus a handful of QB scrambles/kneel-downs and FB dives.Reasonable? or too many for the team as a whole?
I also predict Harvin to average 4 receptions per game, so around 64 for the year. Waldman had this to say:
57 receptions. he's being conservative. Reggie Bush had 88 catches his rookie year, and Harvin is both a better RB and better WR than Bush. again, reasonable or overly ambitious?
What i'm not so sure about is what Harvin will average per reception. I'm fairly confident he'll be able to maintain 5.0 YPC on rushes, but for his receptions will he be in the 8-10 YPR like many other running backs, or 10+ like WRs? even the excellent brian westrbook only averaged 10.1 yards per reception in his best year. eddie royal averaged 9.9 per reception last year. can harvin go over 10?
so to sum it up:
5 carries x 5.0 ypc = 25 yards rushing
4 receptions x 10.0 ypr = 40 yards receiving
8 TDs so 3 points per game on average
=an average of about 13.5 points per game, with potential for those monster games of 100+ yards from scrimmage and a TD or two. totals for the year would be about 75-80 rushes, 60-64 receptions, 375-400 yards rushing, 640 yards receiving and 8 TDs.
on Rotoworld you suggest more conservative numbers of 92 rushes (5.75 per game) and 38 receptions (about 2.4 per game) and 900 combined yards on the year with 8 TDs. IMO these would be better suited to a WR4/bye-week fill in player, as they come out to about 10-11 points per game.
TIA.
jurb26
Footballguy
Ummm, OK well that may make sense of the team wasn't broadcasting how good they thought he was every chance they got... according to this thread anyway.
FunkyPlutos
Footballguy
Berrian's injury just raised Harvin's stock a ton. They haven't said anything, but they haven't said he is ok. The only thing we have so far is Berrian's tweet that says: "I'll be okay in due time." Which doesn't sound too promising.
-jb-
Footballguy
why don't i believe you, pickles?
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
I think he'll be Reggie Bush'd... a ton of recs but low yardage.
DrJamesAndrews Fan
Footballguy
Got him in the 10th round as a WR4. On board.
gregjcross
Footballguy
I dont think the single event being a critical deadline was my point. However, this is your Pro career son, why wouldnt every single opportunity be critical for a rookie being paid millions of dollars.. Actually now looking at it, Percy Harvin has missed every deadline so far in his very short career, all this after having his attitude/issues from Florida. a) He missed the first spring practice (sick or missed flight, not sure i remember) b)The rookie symposium (sick)c) The first Training Camp practices, yes the live ones (due to his "holdout"...Tell me, why would this guy, of all guys, hold out even if for one hour?) d) He misses the first preseason game (injured. seems valid, but trend is disturbing) Sidney Rice doesn't seem ready yet, so I guess Bernard Berrian is the value play here --when healthy. Unless, of course, Harvin shows up. Then i do think he'll be pretty good. Just sayin.
Last edited by a moderator:
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
So he's crossed off your list. We got it.I think you may have wandered into the wrong thread, here.
Similar threads
