Goat Herders
Footballguy
I was talking about Eddie George. But your point is taken.HERD
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Tice on the radio tonight... (1 Viewer)
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Gr00vus
Footballguy
Well we've gone far afield in this one haven't we? Not surprising since we're talking about FF's most sensative issue so far this season.About Bennett - Nov 2 is the earliest he could be cleared to play. If he's back that soon I'd say he'd need at least 2 weeks or so to get back into playing condition. So if he's to become a factor it won't be until Nov 16 at the earliest. I have a feeling we'll know, and the Vikings will know, all they need to know about Onterrio at that point. If he has proven to be productive I hazard a guess that he'll remain part of the offense - resulting in none of the running backs there being worth much unless you're really hurting for rb. This is the worst case scenario for Onterrio in regards to Bennett, proceed with that in mind. For myself, I'm dubious that Bennett can be productive this year, he's not recovering from a broken pinky.About Onterrio - he's entering the most critical time of the season for him. The next three games will probably settle the Onterrio issue for the most part. If he continues to improve and play well, he will probably end up getting most of the RB touches outside the 20's from then on. Inside the 20's it's anyone's guess as he was used in goal line situations all through preseason and had success. If he does well he represents the game breaker threat that can take pressure off of Moss (the way Bennett did last year), and I think we can all admit that Moe does not offer that threat. About Moe - If Tice was truly and completely satisfied with Moe we wouldn't be having this conversation, it's clear that Tice is just being conservative in working the rookie into prominance, or at least in his approach to seeing if he can be prominent. Tice is already preparing Williams for a diminished role in relation to what he's had in the first two games. I think there's room for both rb's to have some good numbers this week - but if that happens it's probably time to sell on Moe and try and get yourself a running back in a more clear cut situation (unless you heavily weight TD's, then you hang on to Moe all season).About Chapman - He seems to have made himself a non factor - this comes as no surprise, the injury problem only made the inevitable happen sooner than expected.One also has to recognize the possibility that Onterrio blows his chances - there's no guarantee that he will do well in these trials. I think he'll do some good stuff this week.
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Goat Herders
Footballguy
...and we've come full circle! What evidence does anyone have that Onterrio is better then Moe? Running: IncompleteReceiving: MoeBlocking: Moe (in a landslide)Hanging on to the ball: Moe HERD
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
Herd, you haven't got a clue - nor does anyone else - what Onterrio can do better or worse than Moe aside from blocking. The point is that Onterrio will get enough chances in the coming weeks to PROVE he's a better runner and receiver than Moe is. The blocking will come with time, and hopefully Onterrio can become good enough to gain the confidence of the coaches.To say Moe is better at receiving or hanging onto the ball isn't fair, because you haven't seen what Onterrio can do. That's what these next few weeks will show us.
Goat Herders
Footballguy
Steelers4Life,You are right on. I don't know any better then anyone else what Onterrio can do, so I'll take my medicine for being presumptuous regarding this one.However, I do know that every week that goes by is one less chance for Onterrio to impress before the imminent returns of Chapman and Bennett cloud the picture even further.HERD
mnmplayer
Footballguy
All the stars are alligned for O this Sunday. If you are not a believer in him this week then you were never a believer. If you started him in the 1st week or the 2nd, then you should definately start him in the 3rd. If you have not started him yet (like me) this is the first week to really consider doing so. I know I am.in my 14 team start 1RB 2WR flex 2 WR/RB league it is going to come down to O. Smith, Reggie Wayne or Alstott for that 2nd flex spot. I think the choice is becoming clear to start O. Smith. I just have this feeling that Wayne is going to go off this week for some reason as he is due (as is Harrison AND Manning). Of course the Indy WR2 has been due for what, 5 years now? Earlier in the week I was leaning towards starting Wayne, today I think I am going to go O. Smith. It's not like I have to decide between Stephan Davis or something. I am glad I don't have to pick between a decent Rb or WR at this point. 
Goat Herders
Footballguy
I agree that Onterrio is the guy to start this week of the 3 you mentioned.HERD
used_to_could
Footballguy
What math class did you learn this in? When you get down to your fourth and fifth RB's something is usually better than nothing. Some points usually tends to be better than zero points.
mnmplayer
Footballguy
Herd,
Like the stock market, sometimes you have to speculate to make a big gain in an investment, in fact speculation is what the game is all about. I tend to think the same holds true with FF. If you want the Portis of 2003 you have to fish for the Portis of 2003. Would you rather buy Microsoft at $20 in 86 or $500 in 2002. Speculation plays an important role. "Safe" teams usually finish near the middle of the pack, teams that take a few chances finish at the top or at the bottom.
Usually a safe team won't win you the championship. You usually need a few speculative plays to pay off to win it all.
If we wait until a player comes into his own we have to pay full price for him. If we pay before he does we pay a fraction of the price of what he is worth, or overpay drastically if he fails. Speculation plays a huge role and is a requirement of the game and should be factored into each player when analysing value. Upside has value, even if it is perceived.
Stacking a team with George/Bettis/Moe Williams type players is not going to get you anywhere but a mediocre finish. Last I cheked you don't win any money for NOT being the basement team, although some leagues will make you buy the bear for next year's draft!
Like the stock market, sometimes you have to speculate to make a big gain in an investment, in fact speculation is what the game is all about. I tend to think the same holds true with FF. If you want the Portis of 2003 you have to fish for the Portis of 2003. Would you rather buy Microsoft at $20 in 86 or $500 in 2002. Speculation plays an important role. "Safe" teams usually finish near the middle of the pack, teams that take a few chances finish at the top or at the bottom.
Usually a safe team won't win you the championship. You usually need a few speculative plays to pay off to win it all.
If we wait until a player comes into his own we have to pay full price for him. If we pay before he does we pay a fraction of the price of what he is worth, or overpay drastically if he fails. Speculation plays a huge role and is a requirement of the game and should be factored into each player when analysing value. Upside has value, even if it is perceived.
Stacking a team with George/Bettis/Moe Williams type players is not going to get you anywhere but a mediocre finish. Last I cheked you don't win any money for NOT being the basement team, although some leagues will make you buy the bear for next year's draft!
Goat Herders
Footballguy
I had Portis last year.I am speerheading the Bob Ferguson revolution this year.I'm mad I don't have Onterrio this year.But I'm sure you can agree that Portis's success is atypical. Sort of like thinking a rookie WR the year after Moss could be the "next Randy". It just doesn't happen. Productive FFer? Certainly.Second Coming of Portis? Not likelyHERD
mnmplayer
Footballguy
Well not quite like Moss as Rookie WR that produce are much more rare than Rookie RB that produce for whatever reason.Congrats on owning Portis last year. I don't think O. Smith is as good as Portis either, but I think the Minn Line is about as good at run blocking as it gets and the Vikings will find themselves in the lead a lot this season. Good news for RB.
Dolfan
Footballguy
NO I DON'T AGREE PORTIS WAS ATYPICALDid a quick check at pro-football reference.com14 rookie RBs in the last 14 years had DAMN GOOD rookie years!!Here's the list:Year Name Total Yds Total TDs2002 C Portis.....1872..........172001 L Tmlnsn...1603..........10 2000 J Lewis......1660............61999 E James.....2139.........171998 F Taylor.....1644..........171997 C Dillon......1388.........101996 E George...1550...........81995 T Davis.......1484..........81995 C Martin.....1748.........151994 M Faulk......1804.........121993 J Bettis.......1673..........71992 R Watters....1418.......111991 BAD YEAR FOR ROOKIE RBs1990 E Smith........1165.......111989 B Sanders....1752.......14I didn't feel like going any further back, there very well could be more for 1988 and before...I'm almost tempted to say that, odds are, if a RB DOESN'T produce in his rookie year, then he likely will not [ever be top 10], but I'm not sure about that yet...What I do know from this exercise is that it is EXTREMELY likely that one of the rookies this year will finish top 5 fantasy stats. At this point in the season, it appears as Onterrio has as good a shot as anyone to be that guy this year...
If you're fishing for the Portis of 2003 and O.Smith is your choice, I think you're using the wrong bait.Everything about his situation says cluster- well, you know what I mean.Moe Williams performing well as the feature back. Not to mention he's alwas been the goal line TD vulture. Avery slated to see "more time". Chapman coming back from an injury soon. Tice cranky about how smith practiced week one and getting him zero carries. Pro-bowl RB coming back 'right on schedule' for the middle of the season. The problem is everyone is looking for 'the next portis'. News flash.Portis was the exception not the rule. There won't be a Portis every year. This year especially... when the running back pool coming out of college was the weakest crop in years. If you're fishing for the that ho-ho packed full of creamy goodness, more often then not you're going to find a fat guy in a brown and white swim suit."where's the cream filling?"If you're in a position of strength and have onterrio smith as a flyer, more power to you. If you're depending on O.Smith to lift you to a championship, have fun in the toilet bowl.F
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
1. It's easy to come up with examples of backs that had poor-to-mediocre rookie years that went on to bigger and better things. Michael Bennett springs immediately to mind, given the thread. Thurman Thomas and Travis Henry are homer examples. I'm sure others can rattle off more.2. Just because a rookie rb has done well in each of the last 14 years does not mean that one will necessarily do well this year, nor does it mean that Onterrio is "due" for a good year.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Link?I haven't seen anything suggesting that Bennett is anything better than a 50-50 shot to return "on schedule." And 50-50 is wildly optimistic IMO.
Goat Herders
Footballguy
All were top 10 picks in the NFL draft. I assure you that this year, when Kevin Jones and Stephen Jackson go in the top-10, we'll be clamoring to get them as well, and for good reason.This year, the rookie RB everybody is interested in (Smith) was a 4th round pick. I think that is a HUGE difference. The point I'm making is that trying to "find" the Rookie RB to work out isn't a certainty. EDIT: I don't know where Dillon was drafted, the others are top-10 IIRCHERD
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Dolfan
Footballguy
While it is statistically accurate to say that the fact that 14 rookie RBs in the past 14 years have had great rookie seasons does not predicate one having a great rookie season this year -- there IS something to be said for using past events to predict future events. The fact is that rookie RBs have a tendency in the NFL to perform EXTREMELY well in their rookie season period.As far as your other point gos: consider this...6 RBs of the 14 on that list were on consensus top 10 fantasy RB lists going into this season...That means that 60% of the RBs that were expected to do very well this season, also did very well in their rookie seasons.
The reason portis was 'portis' is because itwasn't expected. All of those others were very high draft picks.Tomlinson (5th pick overall)Lewis (5th pick overall)Edge (4th pick overall)Taylor (9th pick overall)VS.Portis (2nd round, 19th pick)etc etc etcThat's what made the portis mystique. A mid second round draft pick came in and tore up the league.The portis and onterrio situations are light years apart however. If you're looking for 'portis', it's not going to happen this year. In fact, it's not going to happen MOST years.F
superbowlchampion
Footballguy
Here are a couple of recent examples of late round backs that performed well their rookie years:Mike Anderson 6th round pick, Denver 2000.Rookie year 1669 yards 15 TDs.Dominic Rhodes, undrafted FA, IND 2001Rookie year 1328 yards 9 TDs (only started 10 games)Opportunity is the key. If Onterrio can take over Bennett's role, he could be a solid mid-level #2 RB ... just like Bennett was last year. If somehow Onterrio can get some of the goal line carries, then he might be a strong #2 RB.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
HerdI have seen both Onterrio Smith and Stephen Jackson play being an avid PAC-10 fan and nothing against Jackson but Smith is IMO the better back. I don't think you have seen Onterrio enough. Also, your theory of Bennett coming back is a bit of a stretch if you ask me. I feel Smith has superior skills to Bennet as well. We'll see.
Goat Herders
Footballguy
I am a Vols fan, which means I've been following Onterrio since he was recruited to Tailback U. 
I'm not trying to one-up you. You may be right. I just happen to think a guy with Jackson's size, running ability, and receiving ability is going to make a team (Lions) very happy on draft day. 
HERD
I'm not trying to one-up you. You may be right. I just happen to think a guy with Jackson's size, running ability, and receiving ability is going to make a team (Lions) very happy on draft day. HERDThe only points I might add is that there are two reasons I keep 3rd and 4th RBs with upside on my roster.(1) In case they go off one game and become overvalued. I live to trade in FF. This is likely with Smith after this week as everyone remembers the hype and will see the second coming if he gets 108 yrds and 1 TD on limited touches.(2) In case the feature back or other part of the committee gets injured. For O as my 7th round pick an injury to Moe Williams would result in a lot of value. In this way, RBBC players usually have more potential ROI than a simple backup: I can use them to cover a bye week because they get SOME time and they could have a number 1 job if something happens to the other part of the tandem. Do I think that Smith can win a true starting FF position on my roster just by merit of his play? Probably not. But I might get more than his value at the right time and he might have top 10 numbers any week Moe sits due to unforseen circumstances.
tombonneau
Footballguy
too exhausted after a day of work & an hour of traffic to read all 3 pages, but something to keep in mind, not sure if it was mentioned.......DET passed up on Onterrio for Pinner. think OS might be itching to torch the team the last team to pass on him for another RB. 
since i was the orig. Onterrio pimp, i'm going to shove my money where my mouth is & do everything in my power to convince my partner in my 16-team league to start OS over Amos this weekend as our RB2.RESPECT!
since i was the orig. Onterrio pimp, i'm going to shove my money where my mouth is & do everything in my power to convince my partner in my 16-team league to start OS over Amos this weekend as our RB2.RESPECT!superbowlchampion
Footballguy
Some projections:KFFL has Moe Williams at #9 RB this week, O is at #25.FBGs has Moe at #14 RB and O at #34.Last week, Moe had 21 carries, and O had 9 carries. Tice is saying Onterrio will get MORE carries this week. Yet FBGs are forecasting 18 carries for Moe and 8 for Onterrio - about the same split as last week. My guess is the carries are about even, with Moe getting the goal line touches (like last year).Right now it does seem like SF ... usually a situation to avoid. Good luck to all.
ratpfink
This looks like a job for You-Know and Who!
He was a 4th round pick. Every team passed on him. Multiple times.too exhausted after a day of work & an hour of traffic to read all 3 pages, but something to keep in mind, not sure if it was mentioned.......DET passed up on Onterrio for Pinner. think OS might be itching to torch the team the last team to pass on him for another RB.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
Anyone else see Ratpfink's name and aviater and wonder what next he will say negative about Onterrio? He'll learn soon enough. The old 4th round argument again.
RandleEl82
Footballguy
True, but Onto has a special chip on his shoulder concerning Detroit. Joey Harrington (Onto's college teammate) campaigned heavily to Millen that they draft Onterrio. Millen called Onterrio and Onterrio thought he was for sure going to Detroit. I believe this was Day 2 of the draft. I'm trying like hell to trade Moe Williams in my leagues but I am having trouble finding takers. I may have to settle for David Boston or Jimmy Smith or Isaac Bruce. Onterrio is going to break a long TD this week.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
O.K. My bad. I'm not sure why a get a bad vibe from your aviater. I like the Simpsons and all. Which character is that anyways?
ratpfink
This looks like a job for You-Know and Who!
The sarcastic one.Database: Perhaps some night you could show us your comet. Bart: [pointing] There it is right there. Database: I make it a point never to turn my head unless I expect to see something, Bart. Now truly, we can't see your comet in broad daylight and without a telescope.
Raiders Fan
The Black Hole
They can't avoid why?? Cause most waste a mid round pick.. They are dying to get ANY value from him they can.. Most teams in my leagues that invested early on him are struggling.. Anybody that took him before the 7th or 8th round already lost a lot of value.. I think if you took him late as a flyer you did good.. As it can't hurt to have him on the bench but I too think he will not get a full time shot all year..
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
You got me on that one. I so wish I had taken your advice and used that mid-round pick on a sure thing like James Stewart or Troy Hambrick instead. Supid me.
Raiders Fan
The Black Hole
A good #2 WR would have been FAR more productive and Hambrick well there were red flags over him. I would rather have Stallworth right now then Smith or Hambrick. As for Stewart injuries are not predictable so throwing that out is not an arguement. Except if the player is Warner...You got me on that one. I so wish I had taken your advice and used that mid-round pick on a sure thing like James Stewart or Troy Hambrick instead. Supid me.
I was thinking the same thing. It does sound a little like SF, but there are a few things that should be pointed out. 1. I don't think the SF RBBC situation is something to avoid. I think both Hearst and Barlow are a bargain (especially Hearst, people are always too high on Barlow.) They play for a team that uses its RB's a lot. The biggest gamble with them is that you can never predict who's going to get the TD's week in and week out. Either one of them can be on my team...but only at RB3 or lower.
2. I think the MIN RB situation is somewhat similar to SF, but with a few major differences. The backfield situation is more crowded in MIN, especially if Bennett comes back. I think if MIN keeps winning, they aren't going to be in any hurry to bring him back. Why risk reinjuring him? So far, it looks like anyone could run behind their line, so I don't think they'll risk further injury to Bennett because there's no need to...at least not for now. It does sound like Tice is set on RBBC, which is fairly similar to SF. However, in SF we don't know who will get the ball on the goal line. In MIN, we have a fairly good idea that Moe will still be the guy on the goal line. I haven't seen anything to indicate that this will change.
I think there's 3 ways this can go (assuming Moe stays healthy):
1. Best possible scenario-Smith gradually ends up getting the majority of the carries, but not at the goal line. He ends up being a lot like Fred Taylor last year (racking up yards but no TD's)
2. Probable scenario-Smith and Moe become the 1-2 punch in the RBBC. It's similar to SF, but Moe gets the vast majority of the TD's, making O something like a worse version of K Barlow.
3 Worst possible scenario- O Smith performs poorly, and loses carries to the other backs in the RBBC. He ends up posting similar #'s to the 3rd RB on the Redskins.
Part of my outlook comes from being a Cubs fan. I expected the worst but hope for the best. However, in this situation, I think scenario 2 is the most realistic. I was unable to draft O Smith in any of my leagues. I generally felt he went at too high of a draft position. I'd prefer to have him as an RB 4 or lower (in 10-12 team leagues.) He's got a lot of upside, but I think some people are going overboard at this point. The news we have right now is that he's making progress toward realizing his upside, but several posters on this board are acting like it's in the bank. I think he can be a good contributor on FF teams this year, but you've got to give him time and see how the situation unfolds. He's a nice player to have on your roster, but not a good player to depend on at this point (depending on league size and how many RB's you start.) If everything goes right, he may be an ok option at RB 3 or maybe even RB 2. I know there's a better "best scenario" than what I listed. But it's my Cub fan ways. I expect the Cubs to finish no lower than 2nd in the NL Central. I hope they go to the playoffs. The best possible scenario is that they go deep into the playoffs. But I don't think they can go to the World Series (but I know there's a way...however, I won't even speculate beyond making it to the WS.) Since my best scenario is them going deep in the playoffs, can you imagine how overjoyed I'll be if the go to the WS? That should be the same feeling O Smith owners have if he ends up as a legit feature back.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
LOLA few weeks ago you were pimping Hambrick as a solid RB2. And you were pimping the injury-prone Stewart as a solid RB2.It's nice to see you back away from both of those picks as they've blown up in your face, but you'll forgive me if I take your additional analysis with a grain of salt.A good #2 WR would have been FAR more productive and Hambrick well there were red flags over him. I would rather have Stallworth right now then Smith or Hambrick. As for Stewart injuries are not predictable so throwing that out is not an arguement. Except if the player is Warner...
Raiders Fan
The Black Hole
I was big on Stewart yes. I think he was overlooked because the Lions suck.. As for Hambrick I wasn't really high on him though he was a starting RB and had some value. I would still rather have a decent #2 WR then Smith or Hambrick but I would rather have a healthy Stewart over all 3... You continue to pimp Smith while the owners who took in in the 4th-6th struggle cause of the hype. Smith still has little value riight now as RBBC is still firmly planted. Even if he does well this week Moe will be a factor as long as he's healthy..
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
You spent the last two months mocking owners who had the balls to take a calcluated risk on Smith, and you specifically mocked them for taking Smith over a) Stewartandb) Hambrickboth of whom were supposedly smarter picks because they were "sure things." Well, Stewart and Hambrick turned out to be sure things alright. Everybody who drafted Smith (me included) knew that they were taking a risk that might not pan out. But we wanted a shot at upside that was not available among the likes of Stewart, Hambrick, Mack, etc. Did you ever just say "gee that's risky, I'd rather settle for the known commodity like Hambrick?" No. You tried to argue that everybody who drafted Smith (knowing full well what they were doing) was stupid while you, Mr. I Love Troy Hambrick, was the sole point of brilliance in the fantasy football universe. And now you make yourself look like an idiot by continuing in this charade when you crapped out on your own alternative picks.I know you're probably bitter over having whiffed your mid-round picks, but don't take it out on those of us Smith owners who still have a chance to see their gambles pay off.
Raiders Fan
The Black Hole
HOW WAS I HIGH ON HAMBRICK???? Are you confused with somebody else??? If I mentioned Hambrick at all it was due to the fact he was ranked in the same area as Stewart and giving examples. Stewart before injury was BY FAR BETTER pick... If Stewart wasn't hurt he would be STILL a better pick then Smith... Injuries can not be predicted.. I didn't whiff in mid rounds. I took Stallworth and I am happy as #### I did instead of wasting a pick on Smith. I was hurt with the loss of Stewart and forced to use Amos but at least I have guys I can use not a pine rider that might be stuck in RBBC all year.. Calculated risks are one thing.. SHOTS IN THE DARK are not.. Smith is a shot in the dark as his situation has always been cloudy.. As long as Moe performs he will always be in the way.. It's facts not fiction.. I can read the difference.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
How many times in Stewarts career has he been injured? Did you bother to check on that before you pimped him? I checked. And guess what? I figured Stewart wouldn't hold up over 16 games so I avoided him. When you draft an injury-prone player like Stewart, you are taking a RISK. In your case, your risk didn't pan out well for you, but that's okay. If those picks always worked, then they wouldn't be risky.When another owner drafts a rookie like Smith, he is also taking a RISK. This is no different from your beloved Stewart pick. Except that it might still come through.You make yourself look foolish when you pretend that your risk is somehow brilliant while another owner's risk is stupid.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
:rotflmao: at "I never draft RBBC players but now I'm relying on Amos."You just keep sinking deeper and deeper into incoherence.
Raiders Fan
The Black Hole
He is the STARTER!!!! I also took Amos as my 3rd RB behind Stewart not as my #2.. You are the one making an ### of yourself..:rotflmao: at "I never draft RBBC players but now I'm relying on Amos."You just keep sinking deeper and deeper into incoherence.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Wait a second. You drafted Stewart as your #2?Sheesh, I never took Onterrio as anything more than my RB3.So in your little Stewart vs. Onterrio world, you completely whiffed a more important position.Ouch.No wonder you're touchy. Sorry man.He is the STARTER!!!! I also took Amos as my 3rd RB behind Stewart not as my #2.. You are the one making an ### of yourself..:rotflmao: at "I never draft RBBC players but now I'm relying on Amos."You just keep sinking deeper and deeper into incoherence.
Raiders Fan
The Black Hole
HOW DID I WHIFF??? Its not like I took Stewart and Smith out performed him.. Its like saying Portis gets season ending injury and people who took Lewis saying man you Whiffed on that pick.. Again both healthy going to this years draft I would take Stewart over Smith EVERY time... not like Smith has many more FP this year then Stewart and Stewart didn't see a down..Wait a second. You drafted Stewart as your #2?Sheesh, I never took Onterrio as anything more than my RB3.So in your little Stewart vs. Onterrio world, you completely whiffed a more important position.Ouch.No wonder you're touchy. Sorry man.He is the STARTER!!!! I also took Amos as my 3rd RB behind Stewart not as my #2.. You are the one making an ### of yourself..:rotflmao: at "I never draft RBBC players but now I'm relying on Amos."You just keep sinking deeper and deeper into incoherence.
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