Top 5 dynasty backs if you drafted today (1 Viewer)

[Dr. Octopus]

I cant have the rookies in the top 5. At least not yet.

I don't need another TRich, Ball, Sankey.

If you are totally sold on them, and I mean totally like when Peterson came out, I guess I can see taking the risk of losing everything your 1st offers you. But damn.

People were that sure of Trent Richardson too. He was supposed to be the Andrew Luck of RBs. Turns out Lacy was much better than his two first rounder predecessors (Ingram and Richardson).

I'm not sure that Lacy is "much better" than Ingram - certainly more productive based ion usage however. The problem with Ingram is he went to a team that never wanted to utilize him properly. I feel pretty confident in saying he could be just as successful seeing a heavy workload in Green Bay as Lacy does. Obviously for fantasy that doesn't really matter - it is what it is - and that's not trying to take anything away from Lacy, but if Ingram lands a workhorse load this offseason, he'll produce.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

I cant have the rookies in the top 5. At least not yet.

I don't need another TRich, Ball, Sankey.

If you are totally sold on them, and I mean totally like when Peterson came out, I guess I can see taking the risk of losing everything your 1st offers you. But damn.

People were that sure of Trent Richardson too. He was supposed to be the Andrew Luck of RBs. Turns out Lacy was much better than his two first rounder predecessors (Ingram and Richardson).

I'm not sure that Lacy is "much better" than Ingram - certainly more productive based ion usage however. The problem with Ingram is he went to a team that never wanted to utilize him properly. I feel pretty confident in saying he could be just as successful seeing a heavy workload in Green Bay as Lacy does. Obviously for fantasy that doesn't really matter - it is what it is - and that's not trying to take anything away from Lacy, but if Ingram lands a workhorse load this offseason, he'll produce.

Agree 100%. I've always thought Ingram was under rated. Pierre Thomas was very good at what he did. Sproles is probably the best scat back ever, and obviously they liked throwing the ball since they had Drew Brees.

Ingram lands in Dallas, he's a candidate for 2000 yards. If I'm Dallas, I let some other team spend 7-10 million a year on Murray. I'd sign Ingram for 3-4/year and get similar production.

 

[JohnnyU]

I cant have the rookies in the top 5. At least not yet.

I don't need another TRich, Ball, Sankey.

If you are totally sold on them, and I mean totally like when Peterson came out, I guess I can see taking the risk of losing everything your 1st offers you. But damn.

People were that sure of Trent Richardson too. He was supposed to be the Andrew Luck of RBs. Turns out Lacy was much better than his two first rounder predecessors (Ingram and Richardson).

I'm not sure that Lacy is "much better" than Ingram - certainly more productive based ion usage however. The problem with Ingram is he went to a team that never wanted to utilize him properly. I feel pretty confident in saying he could be just as successful seeing a heavy workload in Green Bay as Lacy does. Obviously for fantasy that doesn't really matter - it is what it is - and that's not trying to take anything away from Lacy, but if Ingram lands a workhorse load this offseason, he'll produce.

Agree 100%. I've always thought Ingram was under rated. Pierre Thomas was very good at what he did. Sproles is probably the best scat back ever, and obviously they liked throwing the ball since they had Drew Brees.

Ingram lands in Dallas, he's a candidate for 2000 yards. If I'm Dallas, I let some other team spend 7-10 million a year on Murray. I'd sign Ingram for 3-4/year and get similar production.

That would probably go to Barry Sanders.

 

[renesauz]

Any list I see that doesn't have him as a top five fantasy RB in any format I disregard off the bat.

It's probably pointless for you to look at any dynasty rankings then.

Yeah no kidding. At some point even the greats need to be discounted due to shortened career.

I agree that 'at some point' his career will end but if LeVeon Bell has three AdP years he would be worth a top five pick and so would Gurley or Jeremy Hill. I think Adrian Peterson has three more solid years in him so why in the world would you draft a younger/unproven guy who 'might' have three AdP type years when you can have the genuine article?

He had virtually no mileage on his frame from 2014. He's healthy. I think he's going to have a monster 2015 and will be have another two highly productive years which would best any of the other younger backs listed.

Counting on THREE more "solid year" from a 30 year old Rb is beyond foolish.

 

[12punch]

How Could Murray Possibly Be Tkp 5 When You don't Know What Tsam he'll Be On?

 

[Tool]

Oh yeah, I also think that Andre Ellington (26) is primed to do big damage for a few years in Arizona.

He played with a foot hurt in the preseason and had no practice and was still top-10 after twelve weeks.

Don't get too scared when they draft another RB, because they have to add something at that position.

Ingram (25) is the free-agent wild card.

Couldn't agree less on Ellington. Just don't see it.

 

[SproutDaddy]

How Could Murray Possibly Be Tkp 5 When You don't Know What Tsam he'll Be On?

Couldn't this logic be used with rookies?

 

[bostonfred]

How Could Murray Possibly Be Tkp 5 When You don't Know What Tsam he'll Be On?

Couldn't this logic be used with rookies?

Yes, and it should.

 

[12punch]

How Could Murray Possibly Be Tkp 5 When You don't Know What Tsam he'll Be On?

Couldn't this logic be used with rookies?

yeah, I'd be fine using it on rookies, depending on the rookie

I only see maybe 2 rookies mentioned.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Oh yeah, I also think that Andre Ellington (26) is primed to do big damage for a few years in Arizona.

He played with a foot hurt in the preseason and had no practice and was still top-10 after twelve weeks.

Don't get too scared when they draft another RB, because they have to add something at that position.

Ingram (25) is the free-agent wild card.

Couldn't agree less on Ellington. Just don't see it.

Ellington looked clearly hampered by the foot injury to me. A totally different player than the year before, even before the workload piled up.

Were it not for the likelihood that Arizona brings in a complement to him, I would think he'd be a really good buy low. He seems like one of those classic players that plays a season at well less than 100% and his fantasy value dips because of the poor production that brings with it.

 

[Biabreakable]

Here is DLF ADP of the top 36 RB out of 6 drafts-

1 RB Le'Veon Bell 22
2 RB LeSean McCoy 26
3 RB Eddie Lacy 24
4 RB DeMarco Murray 26
5 RB Jamaal Charles 28
6 RB Jeremy Hill 22
7 RB Matt Forte 29
8 RB Giovani Bernard 23
9 RB Carlos Hyde 23
10 RB Lamar Miller 23
11 RB Andre Ellington 25
12 RB CJ Anderson 23
13 RB Tre Mason 21
14 RB Isaiah Crowell 21
15 RB Alfred Morris 26
16 RB Marshawn Lynch 28
17 RB Arian Foster 28
18 RB Mark Ingram 25
19 RB Jerick McKinnon 22
20 RB Christine Michael 24
21 RB Bishop Sankey 22
22 RB Doug Martin 25
23 RB Latavius Murray 23
24 RB Joique Bell 28
25 RB Devonta Freeman 22
26 RB Terrance West 23
27 RB CJ Spiller 27
28 RB Adrian Peterson 29
29 RB Shane Vereen 25
30 RB Ryan Mathews 27
31 RB Knile Davis 23
32 RB Jonathan Stewart 27
33 RB Andre Williams 22
34 RB Denard Robinson 24
35 RB Charles Sims 24
36 RB Khiry Robinson 25

As far as which of these players deserve to be ranked in the top 5?

Bell and Lacy are the best combination of being young but also having more than one season of good production, which gives them a leg up on the 2014 rookies Hill, Hyde, Mason, McKinnon.

I think it makes sense to draft McCoy and Murray ahead of Charles, Forte, Lynch because of the difference in age.

CJ Anderson is a guy I might consider for the top 5 but I likely wouldn't take him over the above four.

 

[Warpig]

Not sure why LeSean McCoy is still being drafted that high. I just don't see him being utilized as needed to justify a top 3 or 5 pick in that offense. They obviously like to spread the wealth and I'm not sure he will get the touches required to warrant being drafted top 5. While I do think he is one of the best RBs in the league, Chip likes to get everyone involved with various packages, etc. I think if I had the pick and McCoy were staring me in the face, I'd trade it and try to get a stud WR and promising RB in return.

 

[grateful zed]

i like ingram

 

[Archer]

Ingram and MORRIS are too low IMO

 

[ghostguy123]

How Could Murray Possibly Be Tkp 5 When You don't Know What Tsam he'll Be On?

Because he is really good.

 

[ghostguy123]

Not sure why LeSean McCoy is still being drafted that high. I just don't see him being utilized as needed to justify a top 3 or 5 pick in that offense. They obviously like to spread the wealth and I'm not sure he will get the touches required to warrant being drafted top 5. While I do think he is one of the best RBs in the league, Chip likes to get everyone involved with various packages, etc. I think if I had the pick and McCoy were staring me in the face, I'd trade it and try to get a stud WR and promising RB in return.

If you truly think he is one of the best in the league you should be all over him in the top 3. He got 20+ touches a game last year and should again. And again. And again.

 

[ghostguy123]

Peterson 28th eh

 

[Cjw_55106]

I'm clearly in the minority, but I still think Gio has more talent than Hill and will get a crack at starting again.

Because of the two playing together, I can't rank either in my top five.

Bell

Murray

McCoy

Lacy

Hyde

 

[fruity pebbles]

I'm clearly in the minority, but I still think Gio has more talent than Hill and will get a crack at starting again.

Because of the two playing together, I can't rank either in my top five.

Bell

Murray

McCoy

Lacy

Hyde

He is talented but at certain things. Running the ball between the tackles 20 times a game isn't one of them. It's no coincidence that he produced again when put back into the complementary role as a runner and primary role as a pass catcher.

 

[JohnnyU]

I'm clearly in the minority, but I still think Gio has more talent than Hill and will get a crack at starting again.

Because of the two playing together, I can't rank either in my top five.

Bell

Murray

McCoy

Lacy

Hyde

He is talented but at certain things. Running the ball between the tackles 20 times a game isn't one of them. It's no coincidence that he produced again when put back into the complementary role as a runner and primary role as a pass catcher.

Correct and I know that puts a bad taste in the mouths of Gio owners, but it is a fact, he is more productive in the role you mentioned. Someone compared him to Vereen and that is a good comparison.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

How Could Murray Possibly Be Tkp 5 When You don't Know What Tsam he'll Be On?

Well, if he signs somewhere else, one would have to assume he'd be leaving for a big payday. If a team is paying him well, one would have to assume that he'll have a significant role.

The Cowboys offensive line surely helped get him close to 2,000 yards rushing, but the guy is a talented back. He has a great size/speed combination, good vision and is difficult to bring down. His biggest knock is at times he runs a little too violently, which combined with an upright running style (he is 6'1") lends towards him getting banged up.

While he may never reach 2014 heights again, he's a relatively young and a very talented feature back - with the landscape being what it is he's still top 5 right now imo.

Where would he end up that he'd lose such tremendous value?

 

[Tanner9919]

1. Bell

2. Lacy

3. Gurley

4. Hill

5. Gordon

If we are talking start up, that's the way I'd rank them. I wouldn't even consider Charles/ADP/Lynch/Forte/Foster in the first 3 rounds. The list of players breaking down at 28+ is long and extensive. Sure they may play a few more years, but the odds are stacked against them being worth the pick. LT2, Faulk, MJD, SJax, Eddie George, Edgerrin James, Shaun Alexander. I could go on and on. Those guys were all awesome fantasy RBs. The combined number of high quality years after age 28? Roughly 2. If they have a bad year at 29, you are left holding air. If Gurley starts out slow? You probably still can get 2nd or 3rd round start up value for him.

nice information!

I'm with ya, I think the sleeper in the bunch is a guy named Knile Davis - or Khiry Robinson..

I wonder if Reese would be smart enough to take Gurley at #9 - you put him in that offense...? wow..I know they need help at OL and defense, but Gurley might be too good to pass up..

1. Bell

2. Lacy

3. Mason - we're just scratching the surface with this kid..

4. Hill

5. CJ Anderson - best of the Broncos' RB's, by far..Kubiak's record with RB's speaks for itself..

 

[Banger]

Here is DLF ADP of the top 36 RB out of 6 drafts-

1 RB Le'Veon Bell 22
2 RB LeSean McCoy 26
3 RB Eddie Lacy 24
4 RB DeMarco Murray 26
5 RB Jamaal Charles 28
6 RB Jeremy Hill 22
7 RB Matt Forte 29
8 RB Giovani Bernard 23
9 RB Carlos Hyde 23
10 RB Lamar Miller 23
11 RB Andre Ellington 25
12 RB CJ Anderson 23
13 RB Tre Mason 21
14 RB Isaiah Crowell 21
15 RB Alfred Morris 26
16 RB Marshawn Lynch 28
17 RB Arian Foster 28
18 RB Mark Ingram 25
19 RB Jerick McKinnon 22
20 RB Christine Michael 24
21 RB Bishop Sankey 22
22 RB Doug Martin 25
23 RB Latavius Murray 23
24 RB Joique Bell 28
25 RB Devonta Freeman 22
26 RB Terrance West 23
27 RB CJ Spiller 27
28 RB Adrian Peterson 29
29 RB Shane Vereen 25
30 RB Ryan Mathews 27
31 RB Knile Davis 23
32 RB Jonathan Stewart 27
33 RB Andre Williams 22
34 RB Denard Robinson 24
35 RB Charles Sims 24
36 RB Khiry Robinson 25

As far as which of these players deserve to be ranked in the top 5?

Bell and Lacy are the best combination of being young but also having more than one season of good production, which gives them a leg up on the 2014 rookies Hill, Hyde, Mason, McKinnon.

I think it makes sense to draft McCoy and Murray ahead of Charles, Forte, Lynch because of the difference in age.

CJ Anderson is a guy I might consider for the top 5 but I likely wouldn't take him over the above four.

Gio and Hill top 8? Cincy will have to be one hell of a running juggernaut to possibly get close to decent value for them. Last year they finished 10th and 18th...is there that much more upside in that offense? What am I missing?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Here is DLF ADP of the top 36 RB out of 6 drafts-

1 RB Le'Veon Bell 22
2 RB LeSean McCoy 26
3 RB Eddie Lacy 24
4 RB DeMarco Murray 26
5 RB Jamaal Charles 28
6 RB Jeremy Hill 22
7 RB Matt Forte 29
8 RB Giovani Bernard 23
9 RB Carlos Hyde 23
10 RB Lamar Miller 23
11 RB Andre Ellington 25
12 RB CJ Anderson 23
13 RB Tre Mason 21
14 RB Isaiah Crowell 21
15 RB Alfred Morris 26
16 RB Marshawn Lynch 28
17 RB Arian Foster 28
18 RB Mark Ingram 25
19 RB Jerick McKinnon 22
20 RB Christine Michael 24
21 RB Bishop Sankey 22
22 RB Doug Martin 25
23 RB Latavius Murray 23
24 RB Joique Bell 28
25 RB Devonta Freeman 22
26 RB Terrance West 23
27 RB CJ Spiller 27
28 RB Adrian Peterson 29
29 RB Shane Vereen 25
30 RB Ryan Mathews 27
31 RB Knile Davis 23
32 RB Jonathan Stewart 27
33 RB Andre Williams 22
34 RB Denard Robinson 24
35 RB Charles Sims 24
36 RB Khiry Robinson 25

As far as which of these players deserve to be ranked in the top 5?

Bell and Lacy are the best combination of being young but also having more than one season of good production, which gives them a leg up on the 2014 rookies Hill, Hyde, Mason, McKinnon.

I think it makes sense to draft McCoy and Murray ahead of Charles, Forte, Lynch because of the difference in age.

CJ Anderson is a guy I might consider for the top 5 but I likely wouldn't take him over the above four.

Gio and Hill top 8? Cincy will have to be one hell of a running juggernaut to possibly get close to decent value for them. Last year they finished 10th and 18th...is there that much more upside in that offense? What am I missing?

That Hill didn't have a significant role until deeper in the season and Gio missed a few games?

 

[Banger]

Here is DLF ADP of the top 36 RB out of 6 drafts-

1 RB Le'Veon Bell 22
2 RB LeSean McCoy 26
3 RB Eddie Lacy 24
4 RB DeMarco Murray 26
5 RB Jamaal Charles 28
6 RB Jeremy Hill 22
7 RB Matt Forte 29
8 RB Giovani Bernard 23
9 RB Carlos Hyde 23
10 RB Lamar Miller 23
11 RB Andre Ellington 25
12 RB CJ Anderson 23
13 RB Tre Mason 21
14 RB Isaiah Crowell 21
15 RB Alfred Morris 26
16 RB Marshawn Lynch 28
17 RB Arian Foster 28
18 RB Mark Ingram 25
19 RB Jerick McKinnon 22
20 RB Christine Michael 24
21 RB Bishop Sankey 22
22 RB Doug Martin 25
23 RB Latavius Murray 23
24 RB Joique Bell 28
25 RB Devonta Freeman 22
26 RB Terrance West 23
27 RB CJ Spiller 27
28 RB Adrian Peterson 29
29 RB Shane Vereen 25
30 RB Ryan Mathews 27
31 RB Knile Davis 23
32 RB Jonathan Stewart 27
33 RB Andre Williams 22
34 RB Denard Robinson 24
35 RB Charles Sims 24
36 RB Khiry Robinson 25

As far as which of these players deserve to be ranked in the top 5?

Bell and Lacy are the best combination of being young but also having more than one season of good production, which gives them a leg up on the 2014 rookies Hill, Hyde, Mason, McKinnon.

I think it makes sense to draft McCoy and Murray ahead of Charles, Forte, Lynch because of the difference in age.

CJ Anderson is a guy I might consider for the top 5 but I likely wouldn't take him over the above four.

Gio and Hill top 8? Cincy will have to be one hell of a running juggernaut to possibly get close to decent value for them. Last year they finished 10th and 18th...is there that much more upside in that offense? What am I missing?

That Hill didn't have a significant role until deeper in the season and Gio missed a few games?

ya but Hill's numbers were what they were because Gio was out and Gio's number in the beginning of the year were "inflated" because they weren't using Hill. Both combined ran for 390 - 1804 - 14 and 70 - 564 - 2. Hill's numbers would need to increase by 25% to get him top 6 and Gio would have to increase 38% to get him top 8. Production wise between the two of them you're talking about 509 - 2343 - 18 and 95 - 750 - 3. Those are some awful lofty figures IMO.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Here is DLF ADP of the top 36 RB out of 6 drafts-

1 RB Le'Veon Bell 22
2 RB LeSean McCoy 26
3 RB Eddie Lacy 24
4 RB DeMarco Murray 26
5 RB Jamaal Charles 28
6 RB Jeremy Hill 22
7 RB Matt Forte 29
8 RB Giovani Bernard 23
9 RB Carlos Hyde 23
10 RB Lamar Miller 23
11 RB Andre Ellington 25
12 RB CJ Anderson 23
13 RB Tre Mason 21
14 RB Isaiah Crowell 21
15 RB Alfred Morris 26
16 RB Marshawn Lynch 28
17 RB Arian Foster 28
18 RB Mark Ingram 25
19 RB Jerick McKinnon 22
20 RB Christine Michael 24
21 RB Bishop Sankey 22
22 RB Doug Martin 25
23 RB Latavius Murray 23
24 RB Joique Bell 28
25 RB Devonta Freeman 22
26 RB Terrance West 23
27 RB CJ Spiller 27
28 RB Adrian Peterson 29
29 RB Shane Vereen 25
30 RB Ryan Mathews 27
31 RB Knile Davis 23
32 RB Jonathan Stewart 27
33 RB Andre Williams 22
34 RB Denard Robinson 24
35 RB Charles Sims 24
36 RB Khiry Robinson 25

As far as which of these players deserve to be ranked in the top 5?

Bell and Lacy are the best combination of being young but also having more than one season of good production, which gives them a leg up on the 2014 rookies Hill, Hyde, Mason, McKinnon.

I think it makes sense to draft McCoy and Murray ahead of Charles, Forte, Lynch because of the difference in age.

CJ Anderson is a guy I might consider for the top 5 but I likely wouldn't take him over the above four.

Gio and Hill top 8? Cincy will have to be one hell of a running juggernaut to possibly get close to decent value for them. Last year they finished 10th and 18th...is there that much more upside in that offense? What am I missing?

That Hill didn't have a significant role until deeper in the season and Gio missed a few games?

ya but Hill's numbers were what they were because Gio was out and Gio's number in the beginning of the year were "inflated" because they weren't using Hill. Both combined ran for 390 - 1804 - 14 and 70 - 564 - 2. Hill's numbers would need to increase by 25% to get him top 6 and Gio would have to increase 38% to get him top 8. Production wise between the two of them you're talking about 509 - 2343 - 18 and 95 - 750 - 3. Those are some awful lofty figures IMO.

At first, yes - but then the team started using him as a feature back with Gio in more of a Sproles type role. They can both produce in those roles, but sure I agree with the general premise that they somewhat limit each other.

But remember dynasty rankings aren't necessarily projections. I'm sure most people would think that Forte will finish the 2015 season with more fantasy points than Gio, but most people would still rank Gio higher for dynasty purposes.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Peterson 28th eh

Overall that site has Adrian Peterson ranked 92nd.

Yeah.

Adrian Peterson is 29 years old right now, the same age as Matt Forte. Forte is a good RB but he's a few months younger than AdP yet they rank Forte SIXTY spots higher overall than Adrian Peteron. Not one or two or even ten or twenty spots higher but SIXTY spots higher. Lol, now that is laughable IMHO.

Calvin Johnson, same age 29, is ranked EIGHTY ONE spots higher overall.

I applaud anyone who puts together a list of rankings but rankings are based on many things, personal opinion, speculation, biases, etc. So they can and will and in many cases should be called into question.

I applaud the site for putting together their list but come on.

 

[Banger]

Here is DLF ADP of the top 36 RB out of 6 drafts-

1 RB Le'Veon Bell 22
2 RB LeSean McCoy 26
3 RB Eddie Lacy 24
4 RB DeMarco Murray 26
5 RB Jamaal Charles 28
6 RB Jeremy Hill 22
7 RB Matt Forte 29
8 RB Giovani Bernard 23
9 RB Carlos Hyde 23
10 RB Lamar Miller 23
11 RB Andre Ellington 25
12 RB CJ Anderson 23
13 RB Tre Mason 21
14 RB Isaiah Crowell 21
15 RB Alfred Morris 26
16 RB Marshawn Lynch 28
17 RB Arian Foster 28
18 RB Mark Ingram 25
19 RB Jerick McKinnon 22
20 RB Christine Michael 24
21 RB Bishop Sankey 22
22 RB Doug Martin 25
23 RB Latavius Murray 23
24 RB Joique Bell 28
25 RB Devonta Freeman 22
26 RB Terrance West 23
27 RB CJ Spiller 27
28 RB Adrian Peterson 29
29 RB Shane Vereen 25
30 RB Ryan Mathews 27
31 RB Knile Davis 23
32 RB Jonathan Stewart 27
33 RB Andre Williams 22
34 RB Denard Robinson 24
35 RB Charles Sims 24
36 RB Khiry Robinson 25

As far as which of these players deserve to be ranked in the top 5?

Bell and Lacy are the best combination of being young but also having more than one season of good production, which gives them a leg up on the 2014 rookies Hill, Hyde, Mason, McKinnon.

I think it makes sense to draft McCoy and Murray ahead of Charles, Forte, Lynch because of the difference in age.

CJ Anderson is a guy I might consider for the top 5 but I likely wouldn't take him over the above four.

Gio and Hill top 8? Cincy will have to be one hell of a running juggernaut to possibly get close to decent value for them. Last year they finished 10th and 18th...is there that much more upside in that offense? What am I missing?

That Hill didn't have a significant role until deeper in the season and Gio missed a few games?

ya but Hill's numbers were what they were because Gio was out and Gio's number in the beginning of the year were "inflated" because they weren't using Hill. Both combined ran for 390 - 1804 - 14 and 70 - 564 - 2. Hill's numbers would need to increase by 25% to get him top 6 and Gio would have to increase 38% to get him top 8. Production wise between the two of them you're talking about 509 - 2343 - 18 and 95 - 750 - 3. Those are some awful lofty figures IMO.

At first, yes - but then the team started using him as a feature back with Gio in more of a Sproles type role. They can both produce in those roles, but sure I agree with the general premise that they somewhat limit each other.

But remember dynasty rankings aren't necessarily projections. I'm sure most people would think that Forte will finish the 2015 season with more fantasy points than Gio, but most people would still rank Gio higher for dynasty purposes.

I understand the time value aspect but just don't see Gio being close to 8th best unless Hill isn't in the picture. Hill is younger and has proven he's a much better power runner which leaves change of pace / pass catcher role for Gio. He's not going to disappear from the offense but I can't see how he'll get the touches / td's to come close to justifying the price tag.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Adrian Peterson is 29 years old right now,

He turns 30 in a month.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Calvin Johnson, same age 29, is ranked EIGHTY ONE spots higher overall.

While I agree Peterson is probably too low on that site, I'm not sure how this is relevant. WRs and RBs do not "age" the same way. Elite WRs can play at an elite level considerably longer than elite RBs - it's just the way it is.

Perhaps Peterson is truly a freak of nature (his ACL recovery was impressive), but the odds just aren't in his favor to be much more than a RB2 at best after maybe one more RB1 season.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Here is DLF ADP of the top 36 RB out of 6 drafts-

1 RB Le'Veon Bell 22
2 RB LeSean McCoy 26
3 RB Eddie Lacy 24
4 RB DeMarco Murray 26
5 RB Jamaal Charles 28
6 RB Jeremy Hill 22
7 RB Matt Forte 29
8 RB Giovani Bernard 23
9 RB Carlos Hyde 23
10 RB Lamar Miller 23
11 RB Andre Ellington 25
12 RB CJ Anderson 23
13 RB Tre Mason 21
14 RB Isaiah Crowell 21
15 RB Alfred Morris 26
16 RB Marshawn Lynch 28
17 RB Arian Foster 28
18 RB Mark Ingram 25
19 RB Jerick McKinnon 22
20 RB Christine Michael 24
21 RB Bishop Sankey 22
22 RB Doug Martin 25
23 RB Latavius Murray 23
24 RB Joique Bell 28
25 RB Devonta Freeman 22
26 RB Terrance West 23
27 RB CJ Spiller 27
28 RB Adrian Peterson 29
29 RB Shane Vereen 25
30 RB Ryan Mathews 27
31 RB Knile Davis 23
32 RB Jonathan Stewart 27
33 RB Andre Williams 22
34 RB Denard Robinson 24
35 RB Charles Sims 24
36 RB Khiry Robinson 25

As far as which of these players deserve to be ranked in the top 5?

Bell and Lacy are the best combination of being young but also having more than one season of good production, which gives them a leg up on the 2014 rookies Hill, Hyde, Mason, McKinnon.

I think it makes sense to draft McCoy and Murray ahead of Charles, Forte, Lynch because of the difference in age.

CJ Anderson is a guy I might consider for the top 5 but I likely wouldn't take him over the above four.

Gio and Hill top 8? Cincy will have to be one hell of a running juggernaut to possibly get close to decent value for them. Last year they finished 10th and 18th...is there that much more upside in that offense? What am I missing?

That Hill didn't have a significant role until deeper in the season and Gio missed a few games?

ya but Hill's numbers were what they were because Gio was out and Gio's number in the beginning of the year were "inflated" because they weren't using Hill. Both combined ran for 390 - 1804 - 14 and 70 - 564 - 2. Hill's numbers would need to increase by 25% to get him top 6 and Gio would have to increase 38% to get him top 8. Production wise between the two of them you're talking about 509 - 2343 - 18 and 95 - 750 - 3. Those are some awful lofty figures IMO.

At first, yes - but then the team started using him as a feature back with Gio in more of a Sproles type role. They can both produce in those roles, but sure I agree with the general premise that they somewhat limit each other.

But remember dynasty rankings aren't necessarily projections. I'm sure most people would think that Forte will finish the 2015 season with more fantasy points than Gio, but most people would still rank Gio higher for dynasty purposes.

I understand the time value aspect but just don't see Gio being close to 8th best unless Hill isn't in the picture. Hill is younger and has proven he's a much better power runner which leaves change of pace / pass catcher role for Gio. He's not going to disappear from the offense but I can't see how he'll get the touches / td's to come close to justifying the price tag.

I agree. I have Gio at 10 right now, but it's mostly by default since the position is ugly right now, and I haven't added in the rookies yet (since I'm not doing any start-ups, there's no need to put the rookies in yet).

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Calvin Johnson, same age 29, is ranked EIGHTY ONE spots higher overall.

While I agree Peterson is probably too low on that site, I'm not sure how this is relevant. WRs and RBs do not "age" the same way. Elite WRs can play at an elite level considerably longer than elite RBs - it's just the way it is.

Perhaps Peterson is truly a freak of nature (his ACL recovery was impressive), but the odds just aren't in his favor to be much more than a RB2 at best after maybe one more RB1 season.

Well if you don't see how its relevant I will explain why I used CJ to compare to AdP. It was an attempt to try and put that list into some sort of context.

I compared Peterson to Forte because they are the same age right now but Matt is less than one year younger than AdP yet Matt Forte is ranked sixty spots higher than Adrian Peterson on the Dynasty Football League overall rankings which are only based on mock drafts which could have been conducted by anyone. Some people may have thought Adrian Peterson won't ever play again or maybe they hold a personal grudge against him but the ranking is absurdly low and the Forte comparison shows a direct comparison of a RB to RB but the CJ comparison shows an age comparison of a player at the same age who has their highest ranking.

http://subscribers.f...oomdynastytop75

Bloom has RB Adrian Peterson ranked 67 spots higher than the above list which is much more reasonable IMHO.

ThriftyRocker did a side-by-side comparison of the two lists. Blooms runs only 75 players long and the number to the right of Bloom's list shows how much higher Sig ranks players as apposed to the above list and it shows that Adrian Peterson had the highest discrepancy so I'm not the only one who feels the low ranking on DLF's ADP list is ridiculously too low.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=724539

thriftyrocker

Posted 05 February 2015 - 02:29 PM

In comparison to Jan DLF ADP

1. Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE +7
2. Odell Beckham Jr, WR, NYG 0
3. Julio Jones, WR, ATL +1
4. Dez Bryant, WR, DAL -3
5. Antonio Brown, WR, PIT -2
6. AJ Green, WR, CIN 0
7. Le’Veon Bell, RB, PIT 0
8. Calvin Johnson, WR, DET +3
9. Demaryius Thomas, WR, DEN -4
10. Mike Evans, WR, TB -1
11. Alshon Jeffery, WR, CHI +2
12. Eddie Lacy, RB, GB +6
13. Demarco Murray, RB, DAL +7
14. Jimmy Graham, TE, NO +2
15. LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI 0
16. Sammy Watkins, WR, BUF -4
17. TY Hilton, WR, IND +5
18. Randall Cobb, WR, GB -4
19. Jordy Nelson, WR, GB -2
20. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, HOU -1
21. Jamaal Charles, RB, KC +3
22. Jeremy Hill, RB, CIN +6
23. Matt Forte, RB, CHI +9
24. Arian Foster, RB, HOU +33
25. Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN +67
26. CJ Anderson, RB, DEN +20
27. Andrew Luck, QB, IND -17
28. Keenan Allen, WR, SD -1
29. Michael Floyd, WR, ARI +1
30. Brandon Marshall, WR, CHI +14
31. Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB -10
32. Travis Kelce, TE, KC +13
33. Carlos Hyde, RB, SF +1
34. Kelvin Benjamin, WR, CAR -5
35. Martavis Bryant, WR, PIT +21
36. Julian Edelman, WR, NE +34
37. DeSean Jackson, WR, WAS +18
38. Torrey Smith, WR, BAL +13
39. Josh Gordon, WR, CLE (DLF data is pre-suspension)
40. Marshawn Lynch, RB, SEA +14
41. Cody Latimer, WR, DEN +24
42. Jordan Matthews, WR, PHI -17
43. Donte Moncrief, WR, IND -4
44. Lamar Miller, RB, MIA -4
45. Andre Ellington, RB, ARI -2
46. Giovani Bernard, RB, CIN -13
47. Christine Michael, RB, SEA +15
48. Isaiah Crowell, RB, CLE +4
49. Alfred Morris, RB, WAS +4
50. Cam Newton, QB, CAR 0
51. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, DEN -13
52. Golden Tate, WR, DET -10
53. Brandin Cooks, WR, NO -27
54. Allen Robinson, WR, JAX -23
55. Jarvis Landry, WR, MIA -6
56. Tre Mason, RB, STL -8
57. Doug Martin, RB, TB +11
58. Jeremy Maclin, WR, PHI -23
59. Eric Decker, WR, NYJ +1
60. Kenny Stills, WR, NO +19
61. Davante Adams, WR, GB -25
62. Russell Wilson, QB, SEA -21
63. Jordan Cameron, TE, FA +14
64. Percy Harvin, WR, NYJ -17
65. Victor Cruz, WR, NYG +23
66. Michael Crabtree, WR, FA +1
67. Matt Ryan, QB, ATL +11
68. Drew Brees, QB, NO +12
69. Tom Brady, QB, NE +53
70. Dwayne Allen, TE, IND +38
71. Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, MIN -13
72. Mark Ingram, RB, FA -13
73. Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR +33
74. Latavius Murray, RB, OAK -1
75. Devonta Freeman, RB, ATL +6

 

[ghostguy123]

Calvin Johnson, same age 29, is ranked EIGHTY ONE spots higher overall.

While I agree Peterson is probably too low on that site, I'm not sure how this is relevant. WRs and RBs do not "age" the same way. Elite WRs can play at an elite level considerably longer than elite RBs - it's just the way it is.

Perhaps Peterson is truly a freak of nature (his ACL recovery was impressive), but the odds just aren't in his favor to be much more than a RB2 at best after maybe one more RB1 season.

It laughable some of the rbs ranked ahead of him. I can pick out five guys combined who probably finish with less good seasons than AP still has left

 

[12punch]

How Could Murray Possibly Be Tkp 5 When You don't Know What Tsam he'll Be On?

Because he is really good.

yeah, where was everyone saying that this past offseason?

running the ball is a team effort.

 

[ghostguy123]

How Could Murray Possibly Be Tkp 5 When You don't Know What Tsam he'll Be On?

Because he is really good.

yeah, where was everyone saying that this past offseason?

running the ball is a team effort.

Lol. If they were like me, they traded for him in every league. He does more than just run, which is a rather important factor. He is good at everything

 

[12punch]

blahblah --- nobody's knocking your guy

he was the first guy I managed to buy in my auction league, and I paid good $$ to make him my foundation back, in a league where I don't normally put big chunks of my budget on individual players.

in snake leagues I had him in the same tier with those big 4, or whatever it was, but we were very lucky to get 450 touches.

meanwhile, nobody was talking about him until dallas ran over the league, unless it was to say how 'injury prone' he was.

 

[zilladog]

Reading through this thread, I've noticed a lot of folks contradicting themselves.

Many of you have said you don't expect more that 3-5 productive years out of a young rb, yet some of you are ranking rb's in your top 5 who have all ALREADY HAD MORE years than that in the NFL.

I can't for the life of me understand why someone would expect a 3-5 year window out of a rb and then go and draft a 29 year old in their top 5. Feel free to explain that to me cuz I'm not getting it.

 

[ghostguy123]

blahblah --- nobody's knocking your guy

he was the first guy I managed to buy in my auction league, and I paid good $$ to make him my foundation back, in a league where I don't normally put big chunks of my budget on individual players.

in snake leagues I had him in the same tier with those big 4, or whatever it was, but we were very lucky to get 450 touches.

meanwhile, nobody was talking about him until dallas ran over the league, unless it was to say how 'injury prone' he was.

thats not true at all.

That is just what the MASSES were saying. The sheep. The Sheep represent group-think, which is about 80-90% of fantasy players over all that I have noticed (not nearly that high of a % here obviously).

If you draft by ADP you will never win anything.

 

[ghostguy123]

Reading through this thread, I've noticed a lot of folks contradicting themselves.

Many of you have said you don't expect more that 3-5 productive years out of a young rb, yet some of you are ranking rb's in your top 5 who have all ALREADY HAD MORE years than that in the NFL.

I can't for the life of me understand why someone would expect a 3-5 year window out of a rb and then go and draft a 29 year old in their top 5. Feel free to explain that to me cuz I'm not getting it.

I saw this as well, but maybe only a couple people said things that were contradictory like this.

I get the idea of what they are saying. Some people purposely will not look more than 3 years from now. I am not one of those people.

I would like a RB where three years from now I can sell him for a decent exit price if I choose, like a peterson/Charles/Forte, not a guy who will be worthless

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Reading through this thread, I've noticed a lot of folks contradicting themselves.

Many of you have said you don't expect more that 3-5 productive years out of a young rb, yet some of you are ranking rb's in your top 5 who have all ALREADY HAD MORE years than that in the NFL.

I can't for the life of me understand why someone would expect a 3-5 year window out of a rb and then go and draft a 29 year old in their top 5. Feel free to explain that to me cuz I'm not getting it.

I don't speak for anyone other than myself and I've been clear and consistent on Adrian Peterson. I think he's a freak of nature, truly special. I am not arguing all 29 yr old RBs just AdP not only due to my opinion that he's a freak of nature but because he was being overlooked and ridiculously so on some lists.

Why do I think AdP is a freak of nature and be solidly productive for another three solid years?

Eight years he's played. Seven of the eight he has averaged over 1,446 rushing yards and over 12 rushing TDs per year before tacking on his average of 243 receiving yards and just under 1 receiving TD per year.

His worst year he rushed for only 970 yards with 12 rushing TDs adding another 139 receiving yards with 1 receiving TD when he missed four games. That was his WORST SEASON.

The very next year when everyone had written him off due to his ACL injury he rushed for 2,097 yards, 12 rushing TDs, with 217 receiving yards with 1 receiving TD.

He is 29 today, he will be 30 at this time next year. In two years he will be 31, in three years he will turn 32 years old.

I expect a monster year in 2015 from AdP. I expect two more solidly productive years from him. I don't expect a monster year from Matt Forte and I don't expect two solidly productive seasons from him or other older RBs because they don't have the proven and consistent track record of Adrian Peterson and no one has displayed the freakish physical ability to come back from injury that he has.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/10452/adrian-Peterson

Adrian Peterson's Rushing Stats

=======

He's not a regular RB IMHO. I've been consistent. He is special in many ways and that is why I rank him so high.

I don't know about you but I've been burned many-many-many times drafting rookie RBs thinking that they would be special, Reggie Bush, Cedric Benson, Laurence Marooney, etc. I've seen tons of others make the same mistake with other rookie RBs.

Go back 10 years and look at only the 1st round RBs drafted in the NFL draft who went high in most fantasy rookie drafts. You won't find another Adrian Peterson but you will find guys like Chris Perry taken by the Bengals in 2004 or Cadillac Williams taken with the 5th overall pick in 2005 or Joseph Addai taken by the Colts in the first round in 2006 or Felix Jones in 2008 by the Cowboys or Knowshon Moreno taken in 2009 by the Broncos, or Javid Best taken in 2010 by the Lions or Trent Richardson, just to name 'some' of the first round disappointments without bringing up numerous other RBs taken in later rounds.

Saying I 'expect' three solid years from a rookie RB is based on averages. Saying I expect three solidly productive years from a consistently proven guy like Adrian Peterson is less of a risk IMHO than rolling the dice 'hoping' a rookie pans out based on averages.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

He is 29 today, he will be 30 at this time next year.

You keep saying this. He will turn 30 on March 21, so he is 30 for the sake of his dynasty value. He will be 31 heading into next season and so on...

 

[FreeBaGeL]

blahblah --- nobody's knocking your guy

he was the first guy I managed to buy in my auction league, and I paid good $$ to make him my foundation back, in a league where I don't normally put big chunks of my budget on individual players.

in snake leagues I had him in the same tier with those big 4, or whatever it was, but we were very lucky to get 450 touches.

meanwhile, nobody was talking about him until dallas ran over the league, unless it was to say how 'injury prone' he was.

Just a couple of quickies from one random page in the Murray thread from last offseason...

In short, there seems to be the general perception that he's an injury prone guy that can be a low-end RB1 or solid RB2 when healthy. The reality, this year at least, was that he's an injury prone guy that can be a top 3 overall RB that carries your team on his back when healthy.

If he is able to stay healthy again (I'll consider 14 games with a minor injury good enough), he could be in line for a decent pay day. RB is a devalued position in the NFL today monetarily, but there will be a couple teams that could use what he brings to the field... again, if he can stay on the field.

As far as Fantasy, he has just about as much upside as anyone outside of the elite 3 backs or so, especially on a game by game basis.

Murray has a good chance to finish as the #1 RB this year.

The D was awful last year too and Murray still put up great per game numbers.

As a Cowboys fan, acknowledging how bad our D is this year, I pray that Garrett/Linehan lean heavily on the run and short passing game to control the clock, a la what the Chargers did down the stretch last year. With Smith, Free, Fredrick, and Martin, we have an offensive line that can allow us to sustain long drives, and ball control is the only way I see us keeping opposing teams from scoring 30+ points. I am unsure that it'll play out this way, as Garrett historically is quick to abandon the run (Murray will still catch passes and be a RB1 for fantasy purposes), but I don't think this is the best way to manage the Cowboys this season. Either way, Murray should be a stud if healthy.

I understand that counting on Murray to stay healthy is a longshot, but I think people underrate how good he's been when he actually is healthy. All signs from the offseason only point to that improving, so his upside from a PPG standpoint is much higher than people give him credit for.

 

[zilladog]

Reading through this thread, I've noticed a lot of folks contradicting themselves.

Many of you have said you don't expect more that 3-5 productive years out of a young rb, yet some of you are ranking rb's in your top 5 who have all ALREADY HAD MORE years than that in the NFL.

I can't for the life of me understand why someone would expect a 3-5 year window out of a rb and then go and draft a 29 year old in their top 5. Feel free to explain that to me cuz I'm not getting it.

I don't speak for anyone other than myself and I've been clear and consistent on Adrian Peterson. I think he's a freak of nature, truly special. I am not arguing all 29 yr old RBs just AdP not only due to my opinion that he's a freak of nature but because he was being overlooked and ridiculously so on some lists.Why do I think AdP is a freak of nature and be solidly productive for another three solid years?

Eight years he's played. Seven of the eight he has averaged over 1,446 rushing yards and over 12 rushing TDs per year before tacking on his average of 243 receiving yards and just under 1 receiving TD per year.

His worst year he rushed for only 970 yards with 12 rushing TDs adding another 139 receiving yards with 1 receiving TD when he missed four games. That was his WORST SEASON.

The very next year when everyone had written him off due to his ACL injury he rushed for 2,097 yards, 12 rushing TDs, with 217 receiving yards with 1 receiving TD.

He is 29 today, he will be 30 at this time next year. In two years he will be 31, in three years he will turn 32 years old.

I expect a monster year in 2015 from AdP. I expect two more solidly productive years from him. I don't expect a monster year from Matt Forte and I don't expect two solidly productive seasons from him or other older RBs because they don't have the proven and consistent track record of Adrian Peterson and no one has displayed the freakish physical ability to come back from injury that he has.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/10452/adrian-Peterson

Adrian Peterson's Rushing Stats

=======

He's not a regular RB IMHO. I've been consistent. He is special in many ways and that is why I rank him so high.

I don't know about you but I've been burned many-many-many times drafting rookie RBs thinking that they would be special, Reggie Bush, Cedric Benson, Laurence Marooney, etc. I've seen tons of others make the same mistake with other rookie RBs.

Go back 10 years and look at only the 1st round RBs drafted in the NFL draft who went high in most fantasy rookie drafts. You won't find another Adrian Peterson but you will find guys like Chris Perry taken by the Bengals in 2004 or Cadillac Williams taken with the 5th overall pick in 2005 or Joseph Addai taken by the Colts in the first round in 2006 or Felix Jones in 2008 by the Cowboys or Knowshon Moreno taken in 2009 by the Broncos, or Javid Best taken in 2010 by the Lions or Trent Richardson, just to name 'some' of the first round disappointments without bringing up numerous other RBs taken in later rounds.

Saying I 'expect' three solid years from a rookie RB is based on averages. Saying I expect three solidly productive years from a consistently proven guy like Adrian Peterson is less of a risk IMHO than rolling the dice 'hoping' a rookie pans out based on averages.

Personally, I think looking backwards instead of forwards is the number 1 biggest mistake dynasty owners make. Its the same kind of thinking that makes last years number 1 finisher get traded for number 1 value, even though the odds are strong that he'll never finish number 1 again.Could AP have 2-3 more rb1 years left? Sure, its plausible. But its more often a bad bet than a good one. These older backs lose value incredibly fast. As good as any one player has been, I'd much rather put my money on the stronger dynasty odds, which favors youth.

Edit: just to add to my point real quick. Don't say you expect 3-5 years out of a running back if you actually believe you're gonna get 6-9. And if you really don't think you can get 6-9....don't draft anyone older than 27. That's just dumb.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

He is 29 today, he will be 30 at this time next year.

You keep saying this. He will turn 30 on March 21, so he is 30 for the sake of his dynasty value. He will be 31 heading into next season and so on...

You keep saying he will turn 30 on March 21st and that he's essentially 30 for fantasy purposes. Well the fact is he's not 30 today. He is 29. In one year he will be 30, in two he will be 31,and in three he will be 32. I think he will be solidly productive over the next three years.

If people are really that concerned with age of RBs for dynasty purposes then they should note the proper age of a player.

And since the topic in this thread has focused on the list from DFL pointing out AdP's correct age is important since that list shows they have AdP ranked 60 spots lower than Matt Forte who was born the same year but on December 10th instead of the last day of March making Forte less than 1 year younger or to be very specific he is 9 months and 20 days yet his dynasty ranking on that list says Forte's value is 60 spots higher than Peterson.

I can't see how they could have such a bias for Forte and against Peterson unless its based on age. So they must feel that 9 months and 20 days makes Adrian Peterson worse than 60 players between he and Matt Forte.

I think its fitting his age isn't rounded up or some people might make worse rankings based on false information.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

He is 29 today, he will be 30 at this time next year.

You keep saying this. He will turn 30 on March 21, so he is 30 for the sake of his dynasty value. He will be 31 heading into next season and so on...

You keep saying he will turn 30 on March 21st and that he's essentially 30 for fantasy purposes. Well the fact is he's not 30 today. He is 29. In one year he will be 30, in two he will be 31,and in three he will be 32. I think he will be solidly productive over the next three years.If people are really that concerned with age of RBs for dynasty purposes then they should note the proper age of a player.

He'll be 30 when the season starts, which is all anyone cares about and how virtually everyone lists a player's age in their dynasty rankings.

 

[12punch]

blahblah --- nobody's knocking your guy

he was the first guy I managed to buy in my auction league, and I paid good $$ to make him my foundation back, in a league where I don't normally put big chunks of my budget on individual players.

in snake leagues I had him in the same tier with those big 4, or whatever it was, but we were very lucky to get 450 touches.

meanwhile, nobody was talking about him until dallas ran over the league, unless it was to say how 'injury prone' he was.

Just a couple of quickies from one random page in the Murray thread from last offseason...

In short, there seems to be the general perception that he's an injury prone guy that can be a low-end RB1 or solid RB2 when healthy. The reality, this year at least, was that he's an injury prone guy that can be a top 3 overall RB that carries your team on his back when healthy.

If he is able to stay healthy again (I'll consider 14 games with a minor injury good enough), he could be in line for a decent pay day. RB is a devalued position in the NFL today monetarily, but there will be a couple teams that could use what he brings to the field... again, if he can stay on the field.

As far as Fantasy, he has just about as much upside as anyone outside of the elite 3 backs or so, especially on a game by game basis.

Murray has a good chance to finish as the #1 RB this year.

The D was awful last year too and Murray still put up great per game numbers.

As a Cowboys fan, acknowledging how bad our D is this year, I pray that Garrett/Linehan lean heavily on the run and short passing game to control the clock, a la what the Chargers did down the stretch last year. With Smith, Free, Fredrick, and Martin, we have an offensive line that can allow us to sustain long drives, and ball control is the only way I see us keeping opposing teams from scoring 30+ points. I am unsure that it'll play out this way, as Garrett historically is quick to abandon the run (Murray will still catch passes and be a RB1 for fantasy purposes), but I don't think this is the best way to manage the Cowboys this season. Either way, Murray should be a stud if healthy.

I understand that counting on Murray to stay healthy is a longshot, but I think people underrate how good he's been when he actually is healthy. All signs from the offseason only point to that improving, so his upside from a PPG standpoint is much higher than people give him credit for.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Personally, I think looking backwards instead of forwards is the number 1 biggest mistake dynasty owners make. Its the same kind of thinking that makes last years number 1 finisher get traded for number 1 value, even though the odds are strong that he'll never finish number 1 again.

Could AP have 2-3 more rb1 years left? Sure, its plausible. But its more often a bad bet than a good one. These older backs lose value incredibly fast. As good as any one player has been, I'd much rather put my money on the stronger dynasty odds, which favors youth.

Um you mean like looking backwards like saying other older RBs fall off the cliff at a certain age so all of em will?

If you feel Adrian Peterson is just like the rest of them and he's washed up then I have no problem with you or anyone else expressing your opinion. I've expressed mine because I don't think he's like other RBs because if he were then other RBs would have consistently produced like he has but they haven't.

I think the lists where he's not ranked or on other lists where he's ranked ridiculously low are just flat out wrong. Its my opinion but its based on more than opinion, its based on his track record which isn't like every other RB.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

blahblah --- nobody's knocking your guy

he was the first guy I managed to buy in my auction league, and I paid good $$ to make him my foundation back, in a league where I don't normally put big chunks of my budget on individual players.

in snake leagues I had him in the same tier with those big 4, or whatever it was, but we were very lucky to get 450 touches.

meanwhile, nobody was talking about him until dallas ran over the league, unless it was to say how 'injury prone' he was.

Just a couple of quickies from one random page in the Murray thread from last offseason...

In short, there seems to be the general perception that he's an injury prone guy that can be a low-end RB1 or solid RB2 when healthy. The reality, this year at least, was that he's an injury prone guy that can be a top 3 overall RB that carries your team on his back when healthy.

If he is able to stay healthy again (I'll consider 14 games with a minor injury good enough), he could be in line for a decent pay day. RB is a devalued position in the NFL today monetarily, but there will be a couple teams that could use what he brings to the field... again, if he can stay on the field.

As far as Fantasy, he has just about as much upside as anyone outside of the elite 3 backs or so, especially on a game by game basis.

Murray has a good chance to finish as the #1 RB this year.

The D was awful last year too and Murray still put up great per game numbers.

As a Cowboys fan, acknowledging how bad our D is this year, I pray that Garrett/Linehan lean heavily on the run and short passing game to control the clock, a la what the Chargers did down the stretch last year. With Smith, Free, Fredrick, and Martin, we have an offensive line that can allow us to sustain long drives, and ball control is the only way I see us keeping opposing teams from scoring 30+ points. I am unsure that it'll play out this way, as Garrett historically is quick to abandon the run (Murray will still catch passes and be a RB1 for fantasy purposes), but I don't think this is the best way to manage the Cowboys this season. Either way, Murray should be a stud if healthy.

I understand that counting on Murray to stay healthy is a longshot, but I think people underrate how good he's been when he actually is healthy. All signs from the offseason only point to that improving, so his upside from a PPG standpoint is much higher than people give him credit for.

What's your point? Of course everyone qualified it with his injury problems, but your claim was that was all anyone said about him (and that no one said anything about him being any good) which is patently false. Many people thought he could be a top 3 back if he could stay healthy, which he was. Your claim that no one ever thought he was any good until he put up a huge season in 2015 is incorrect.

 

[12punch]

going fwd plz correctly list adp's age as 29 yrs and 11 months

 

[Bracie Smathers]

He is 29 today, he will be 30 at this time next year.

You keep saying this. He will turn 30 on March 21, so he is 30 for the sake of his dynasty value. He will be 31 heading into next season and so on...

You keep saying he will turn 30 on March 21st and that he's essentially 30 for fantasy purposes. Well the fact is he's not 30 today. He is 29. In one year he will be 30, in two he will be 31,and in three he will be 32. I think he will be solidly productive over the next three years.If people are really that concerned with age of RBs for dynasty purposes then they should note the proper age of a player.

He'll be 30 when the season starts, which is all anyone cares about and how virtually everyone lists a player's age in their dynasty rankings.

No its not because you don't speak for everyone and I can say for a fact that not ALL ANYONE CARES ABOUT is a player's age when the season starts.

For older players I care more about how old they will be at the END of the season especially when I'm trying to determine how much longer they will be solidly productive.