STEADYMOBBIN 22
Footballguy
Tra Mason is getting no love.
Redonkulous.
Redonkulous.
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Top 5 dynasty backs if you drafted today (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Sabertooth
- Start date
TheAristocrat
Footballguy
Bell
Murray
Lynch
Foster
And I'm not sure about 5. The rest are kinda meh RBs or huge question marks.
Murray
Lynch
Foster
And I'm not sure about 5. The rest are kinda meh RBs or huge question marks.
dirtyjay
Footballguy
I like how you set it up but why would someone want an unproven NFL player coming off an injury like Gurley over players who have had elite success and are still in the prime of their careers like Murray and McCoy or even a little older players like Charles and Forte. They have done it and show no signs they cant do it for 2-3 more years? Age is is so misused in evaluating players for drafting far too often. If people are drafting their team for 4 years down the road that doesnt always breed success. Gurley still has a chance to be a bust while the elite players have done it.
dirtyjay
Footballguy
"Proven Studs" all fall off as well. It's a gamble. MJD and Ray Rice fell off sooner than some thought. Would you rather guess on 1-3 years of production or 4-8 years of production?
dirtyjay
Footballguy
It is all a gamble and you are not assured 4-8 years of production ask trent. So would you rather gamble on a proven stud or a guy who has never stepped on a field. If you choose because of age thats your choice but is bigger gamble and i dont think thats a debate.
Listen, I understand the argument and I never said anyone is a sure thing. But the "stud RB" side is not acknowledging two things: 1) you have no guarantees that an older RB will produce(injuries get higher with age and skills diminish) 2) they could fall off the cliff at age 27-30.
If any player was guaranteed a RB1 season or two...I'd sign up. But none are in this hobby. What is guaranteed is that young players hold their value longer(see Mark Ingram right now) than older players.
I'm not assuming the odds are the same, those are word you added to my post.
We've seen a lot of poor RB rookie classes lately and people got burned. That doesn't mean they're a poor investment, it's all subjective. I'm not saying draft all young unproven players. I'm just saying it's a gamble both ways.
Value is higher for younger players than vets. You can't think of purely 2015....would you rather have Adrian Peterson or Jay Ajayi? Give me Ajayi...I can still use Ajayi for much longer and even trade him. Tevin Coleman or CJ Spiller...Tevin Coleman. No veteran is guaranteed to produce any number and any player can bust. Give me the younger player so I can have sustained value over time vs hoping a vet can hold on.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Ryan Mathews was 25 years old in 2012.Regardless, he raises a fair point. What is Mark Ingram's VBD for his career? It's got to be pretty poor, but even with very little to show for himself in terms of production or VBD you could probably flip him for a 1st round pick right now. Any aging vet is one mediocre season or one injury away from having, almost literally, ZERO value.
When you're old and you have a bad year, no one has any interest in you. When you're young and you have a bad year you can usually still find a buyer. People were still paying 2nd round picks for Trent Richardson after the worst RB season in NFL history. No one would pay a 5th rounder for Chris Johnson after one merely below average year.
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ZWK
Footballguy
There is a pretty large difference between 27-year-old veterans and 29-year-old veterans. When I ran some numbers on this a few years back, elite RBs who were going into their age 29 season had about half as much VBD left as elite RBs who were going into their age 27 season. And right now, Foster, Lynch, and Charles are all going into their age 29 season (Forte & Peterson are going into their age 30 seasons).
212 is also understating the rookies' remaining career VBD, since some of them are still going (including Forte & Stewart from the 2008 class).
ZWK
Footballguy
My criteria for who to include are pretty similar to yours: every RB who is coming off a 50 VBD season (which is roughly top 12). Peterson did not have 50 VBD in his age 29 season (2014), so he would not be included in my analysis either. I also have another version with similar results (shown on the same graph) which only includes RBs who were coming off back-to-back 50 VBD seasons, and another version with similar results (not discussed in that post) which only includes RBs who were coming off a 100 VBD season.
My sample of RBs includes everyone who entered the league from 1983-2003, while your sample is limited to more recent RBs. I'd guess that this is the cause of the difference, either because there has been a change in RB aging patterns, or because the smaller sample that you used makes things noisy (how many players do you have in each age bin? How much does the picture change if you remove one player, like Priest Holmes?). Other possibilities: I used non-PPR scoring; maybe you used PPR? Or maybe there are some still-active RBs in your sample who are still accumulating VBD for the age 27 & age 28 groups, and the dropoff will look steadier once they are through?
I agree with you that veterans are the safer bet while rookies are more boom or bust - rookies are more likely to give you many big years, but they're also more likely to give you nothing or very little. So I'm not surprised that 3 of your charts (all except the top left) look favorable for veterans. I think that the top left chart is the most important, though.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
is there a rookie named Mccoy I don't know about.
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
He's more deserving than the 2 rookies
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Lesean McCoy is not bouncing back to his 2013 form any time soon. No thanks. Couldn't wait to trade him away. Enjoy those 30 yard games.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Sure he did. He also averaged 75 and .25 touchdowns over his last 4. He also average 1.25 catches over that last month too. He basically had 2 big games against the Titans and Cowboys and a bunch of junk. That's not Top 5 production to me. And I don't think it changes much moving forward.
zilladog
Footballguy
You say its wiser to 'gamble' on the vet based on prior production. But I disagree. The problem with older vets in dynasty is they drop off in value insanely quickly, whether warranted or not. But young rb's retain value far far longer and they are given many chances before owners give up on them. Vets don't have that luxury. So even if you get stuck with a dud rookie rb, he can still be traded for some return value. But once a vet starts to look old, they can't be given away. That is why youth is almost always a far better 'gamble'.
ratbast
Footballguy
Exit value. That is underrated in much of this discussion. Whatever you think their points will be is one thing but drafting a guy with strong future exit value would be my goal.
Youth can overcome history with exit value. So I would draft a young guy like Hill and then trade him for Lynch AND AP if i was "contending" or something of that nature.
Youth can overcome history with exit value. So I would draft a young guy like Hill and then trade him for Lynch AND AP if i was "contending" or something of that nature.
zilladog
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Case in point.
Montee Ball: 235/1 at 3.1 ypc. Currently ranked RB #30
Chris Johnson 800/2 at 4.3ypc. Currently ranked RB #80
Ball is just about a worst-case scenario for a young back that was highly ranked going into the year. He looked bad when playing AND had injury issues AND lost his job to another young RB. And he still has RB3 value.
An even more compelling comparison is Giovanni Bernard, who looked bad as a feature back and lost his starting job to a back that is younger than him and will be around on the same team for at least another 4 years, yet he's still valued as a low-end RB1 in FBG dynasty rankings (RB #11).
I'll say again, the guy was basically reduced to a change of pace role behind a guy that's going to be with the team for at least another 4 years and that dropped him a whopping eight spots in the RB rankings. When the same thing happened to the much older Chris Johnson he dropped 56 spots.
lod01
Footballguy
Miller's biggest obstacle is the coaching staff which has subscribed to the new stupid fad called snap count.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Not in the top 5. But he performed very well last season and finished as the RB 8 in PPR leagues. There is room for him to build on this if he gets more opportunity, which I think is possible.workdog3 said:
I wasn't a fan of Miller prior to last season. I was skeptical of him being a 250+ touch player but since he crossed that threshold, and due to other tangible improvements to the Dolphins offensive line and their offensive coordinator, I do think Miller has a good chance to finish as a top 12 RB over the next 3 seasons. If there had been a change with the coaching staff, or Tannehill didn't improve the way he did, I would be less optimistic about Miller hanging on to the job than I am now.
I still like Damien Williams, but watching the Dolphins offense, it seemed pretty clear to me that Miller is a better RB than Williams is.
According to DLF Millers ADP spiked in January at 42.5 overall (RB10) then fell back to 52 overall (RB15) in February once the 2015 rookies were included.
Here are the players 10 spots ahead and behind where Miller is being drafted in Feb
42 RB Marshawn Lynch 28
43 RB Tre Mason 21
44 WR Martavis Bryant 23
45 WR Brandon Marshall 30
46 WR Emmanuel Sanders 27
47 RB Giovani Bernard 23
48 WR Dorial Green-Beckham 21
49 TE Travis Kelce 25
50 RB CJ Anderson 23
51 WR Torrey Smith 25
52 QB Russell Wilson 26
53 RB Lamar Miller 23
54 WR Jarvis Landry 22
55 QB Cam Newton 25
56 TE Julius Thomas 26
57 RB Adrian Peterson 29
58 RB Isaiah Crowell 21
59 WR Julian Edelman 28
60 WR Charles Johnson 25
61 WR Cody Latimer 22
62 RB Mark Ingram 25
63 WR Devin Funchess 20
I can see taking CJ Anderson, Russell Wilson and maybe Lynch over him, but for the most part I would prefer to have Miller to most of these players. So I would rank him about 49-50 overall. I drafted him at 44 in January but I would likely take at least the top 5 2015 rookies ahead of him. Not entirely decided after that.
If we look at just RB ADP
1 RB Le'Veon Bell 22
2 RB Eddie Lacy 24
3 RB LeSean McCoy 26
4 RB DeMarco Murray 26
5 RB Todd Gurley 19
6 RB Jamaal Charles 28
8 RB Melvin Gordon 21
11 RB Marshawn Lynch 28
14 RB CJ Anderson 23
15 RB Lamar Miller 23
16 RB Adrian Peterson 29
17 RB Isaiah Crowell 21
18 RB Mark Ingram 25
19 RB Latavius Murray 23
20 RB Arian Foster 28
21 RB Alfred Morris 26
22 RB Duke Johnson 20
23 RB Jay Ajayi 21
24 RB TJ Yeldon 20
25 RB Bishop Sankey 22
It looks like I have Miller at about RB 10. Which is pretty much how I valued him in January as well.
Now if the Dolphins add another RB through FA or the draft that could change things. But I think he did well enough last season that they may be comfortable with Miller and Williams as their main 2 RB.
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DropKick
Footballguy
Age will always be a major variable in dynasty rankings. The individual player, their injury history, track record, contract status, the team they play for, their use in the passing game or even within a committee all combine to shape our valuation.
For example, in my mind, there are fewer questions about Forte than Lynch, even though their age and mileage are similar. Plus, Forte is so heavily used in the passing game... Foster drops due to his injury history...
Bell
Murray
Forte
Lacy
Hill
McCoy
Charles
Lynch
Peterson
Hyde
For example, in my mind, there are fewer questions about Forte than Lynch, even though their age and mileage are similar. Plus, Forte is so heavily used in the passing game... Foster drops due to his injury history...
Bell
Murray
Forte
Lacy
Hill
McCoy
Charles
Lynch
Peterson
Hyde
