Top 5 Dyno (Each Position) (2 Viewers)

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

It's a fact, guy.

Peterson's points/game finish in PPR leagues:

2013 - #10

2012 - #1

2011 - #9

2010 - #6

2009 - #4

2008 - #12

2007 - #5

Dynasty HOFer, but only one top-three finish in his career.

 

[Gandalf]

It's a fact, guy.

Peterson's points/game finish in PPR leagues:

2013 - #10

2012 - #1

2011 - #9

2010 - #6

2009 - #4

2008 - #12

2007 - #5

Dynasty HOFer, but only one top-three finish in his career.

And 6 of 7 top 10 finishes. 7 of 7 top 12. That's pretty unreal.

 

[Concept Coop]

The difference is he is the only guy that stays as an RB1. Other guys float from RB1 one year, to RB4, the next, back to RB2, then RB3....

I wouldn't go that far. McCoy, Charles, Foster, Rice, MJD, etc. Aside from injuries, the top level guys have been pretty consistent.

 

[jurb26]

Yup, Peterson is an average RB1 in PPR, no doubt about it. Just look at the finishes he's had in that scoring over the years. Not sure why that's such a hot button. It's simply the truth.

The difference is he is the only guy that stays as an RB1. Other guys float from RB1 one year, to RB4, the next, back to RB2, then RB3....

That's fine and I give him kudos for consistency. I also understand that consistent performance matters, more to some than others. He has shown he is a strong candidate to be a RB1 and maybe the safest of the RBs but that doesn't change that his performances on average place him in the middle of the pack (for PPR RB1s). I'm not saying drafting him 1st is a bad play. It's a perhaps the safest play, for RBs. Just don't expect he will score like a top 5 guy, because he generally won't.

 

[False Start]

It's a fact, guy.

Peterson's points/game finish in PPR leagues:

2013 - #10

2012 - #1

2011 - #9

2010 - #6

2009 - #4

2008 - #12

2007 - #5

Dynasty HOFer, but only one top-three finish in his career.

And 6 of 7 top 10 finishes. 7 of 7 top 12. That's pretty unreal.

It bothers me when people doubt the value of safe elite players. Very very few safe elite players. ADP, Brees, Manning, Graham, Calvin, McCoy and now Charles, Green and Dez. That is a value like no other.

 

[ChuckLiddell]

It's a fact, guy.

Peterson's points/game finish in PPR leagues:

2013 - #10

2012 - #1

2011 - #9

2010 - #6

2009 - #4

2008 - #12

2007 - #5

Dynasty HOFer, but only one top-three finish in his career.

I assume that in non-PPR the numbers would tell a different story.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

It's a fact, guy.

Peterson's points/game finish in PPR leagues:

2013 - #10

2012 - #1

2011 - #9

2010 - #6

2009 - #4

2008 - #12

2007 - #5

Dynasty HOFer, but only one top-three finish in his career.

And 6 of 7 top 10 finishes. 7 of 7 top 12. That's pretty unreal.

It bothers me when people doubt the value of safe elite players. Very very few safe elite players. ADP, Brees, Manning, Graham, Calvin, McCoy and now Charles, Green and Dez. That is a value like no other.

No one's doubting anything. That doesn't make a two to three year window of safe, mid-range RB1 production worth a 1st round startup pick. It's not a slam dunk either way, and thus it's a topic worthy of debate and discussion. Sorry if that upsets you -- but that's actually the entire purpose of the SP.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I am a little worried about Lacy's toe long term. He might be top 5 today. Things change fast at RB though. Just look at Ray Rice...

Wouldn't that be applicable to every RB? - Ray Rice was a solid as they come, until he wasn't. So why single out Lacy? His toe injury wasn't a concern for a very shrewd and successful franchise, they spent a second round pick on him.

 

[Biabreakable]

New Vikings offensive coordinator said he expects running back Adrian Peterson to catch 50 to 60 passes in 2014, reports KFAN in Minneapolis.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I am a little worried about Lacy's toe long term. He might be top 5 today. Things change fast at RB though. Just look at Ray Rice...

Wouldn't that be applicable to every RB? - Ray Rice was a solid as they come, until he wasn't. So why single out Lacy? His toe injury wasn't a concern for a very shrewd and successful franchise, they spent a second round pick on him.

I agree with not downgrading Lacy, but we really don't know too much about the extent of any concerns GB or any other team might have had re: his toe. Well, except Denver, as Elway flat out said that's why they went with Ball. It's certainly entirely possible that Lacy would have been the top RB selected in the late 1st last year had he come with a completely clean bill of health.

 

[Gandalf]

I am a little worried about Lacy's toe long term. He might be top 5 today. Things change fast at RB though. Just look at Ray Rice...

Wouldn't that be applicable to every RB? - Ray Rice was a solid as they come, until he wasn't. So why single out Lacy? His toe injury wasn't a concern for a very shrewd and successful franchise, they spent a second round pick on him.

Not every RB has a toe fusion. Not saying it's a deal breaker, just raises the risk profile compared to other RBs in the same top tier

 

[Dr. Octopus]

It feels like a bunch of people are over-estimating Adrian Pererson's production if we're talking about PPR formats. He typically hasn't been a lap the field type RB1 in the mold of prime Faulk, Holmes, or Tomlinson. Drafting one of those guys on a short window was one thing due to the absolutely crushing advantage they provided; drafting a short shelf life guy with baseline production in the RB3 - RB6 range is totally different, IMO.

Of course Norv Turner might change the equation re: Peterson's use in the passing game, and if so, Peterson might deliver the ridiculous totals he'd need to be worth top 5 startup value. But I don't know that I'd pull the trigger on a maybe like that at the very beginning of a draft personally.

Feels much like when people doubted him after his ACL injury. We all know he will get old sometime, but this guy has proven he isn't human. Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting a different result. People keep doubting ADP hoping he will fail, and still he doesn't. He has to show me the wheels will fall off before I believe it. This isn't just another guy and has a chance to break Emmitts record at only 8k away, he played 15 years and was strong until 33, AP is 28 and has played 7 years.

He's not doubting Peterson. What he said is the truth. Peterson did prove many wrong following his ACL surgery, but other than that season he's never been markedly better than the other top RBs. What's great about him from a re-draft perspective is we can count on him being top 5, year in and year out. If we're talking dynasty startup value though, while it would be nice to get two more seasons of that, we can get that from a few other backs, or go WR/TE instead. Peterson is a freak and will likely still be productive at age 31, but do you think he'll be dominant at 30?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I am a little worried about Lacy's toe long term. He might be top 5 today. Things change fast at RB though. Just look at Ray Rice...

Wouldn't that be applicable to every RB? - Ray Rice was a solid as they come, until he wasn't. So why single out Lacy? His toe injury wasn't a concern for a very shrewd and successful franchise, they spent a second round pick on him.

I agree with not downgrading Lacy, but we really don't know too much about the extent of any concerns GB or any other team might have had re: his toe. Well, except Denver, as Elway flat out said that's why they went with Ball. It's certainly entirely possible that Lacy would have been the top RB selected in the late 1st last year had he come with a completely clean bill of health.

That's fair.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Weakest collection of dynasty RBs since I've been playing. I love Lacy and Gio, but the fact that they are top 5 says more about the position as a whole than it does the two of them.

Just a few years ago the top RBs were: AP, CJ, MJD, Foster, Rice, McCoy, Charles, DMC, and Forte...all in their prime.

I wrote about this during the season. In 2010, the average point of VBD was produced by an RB age 24.7. When I ran the numbers at midseason, the average point of VBD was produced by an RB age 27.1. The average age went up by 2.4 years in a 3-year span! The implications of that are difficult to fathom- basically, every RB in the league continues getting older, and almost no new productive backs have come in to supplant them. Just three of the top 12 RBs entered the league in the past FOUR DRAFTS (Lacy this year, Murray three years ago, and Mathews four years ago).

The last time the average RB was this old was back in 2004, but that was the heydey of the stud running back, so those old RBs were much more productive. 2013 saw three RBs top 250 points and eight top 200 points. 2004 saw SEVEN RBs top 250 and 11 top 200, plus Priest Holmes who scored 198 points... in 8 games (he would have skewed the average age even higher if he'd managed to stay healthy that year). In 2004, Tomlinson, Rudi Johnson, Domanick Davis (nee Williams), Clinton Portis, Brian Westbrook, and Willis McGahee were all top 12 at age 25 or younger. In 2013, you've got McCoy, Murray, and Lacy. That's it.

I think you'd have to go all the way back to 1999/2000 to find a comparable turd sandwich at RB, but of course, in 1999/2000 the WR and QB talent was just so-so, so RBs remained relatively valuable compared to other positions. Not so in 2014, where the passing explosion has QB and WR production at an all-time high, and much of it is coming from young, record-setting players such as Cam Newton and Josh Gordon. I don't think it's any stretch at all to say that, relative to the other positions, RB value is the lowest it's been in at least 20 years.

 

[karmarooster]

Gonna mix this up a bit to stir up some discussion:

QBs:

-Rodgers

-Luck

-Cam

-RG3

-Foles

Too old: Brees, Manning, Brady. Brees in particular is still probably going to be elite the next 2-3 years, but his perceived value is already slumping, even if his actual play remains the same.

Almost made it: Stafford (but doubt the new coaching philosophy, Kaep, and of course Brees.

RBs:

-McCoy

-Lacy

-Gio

-Charles

-Michael .... heh, just kidding. Martin.

Too old: Forte, AP, Lynch.

Almost made it: Bell, Murray, Spiller ... could sub in for Martin... I have doubts about Martin looking so pedestrian while RBs 2 and 3 were much better.

WRs:

-AJG

-Calvin

-Dez

-DT

-Gordon/Julio/Jeffrey.

This really is either a top 4, or a top 7. IMO there's a tier break, with Gordon/Julio/Jeffrey have more (minor) question marks than the other 4.

Almost made it - 3 above, plus Harvin, Cobb, and Cruz. Particularly Cobb. I think Harvin is only a top 5 WR if everything works perfectly, and that involves staying healthy and not getting hurt or getting a headache (30% chance of either of those any given week), and he needs to be fed the ball like his stretch run of eliteness in Minn. That just isn't going to happen on this offense (and playing with this defense).

TEs:

-Graham

-Gronk

-Cameron

-Thomas

-Reed

Too Old: Davis, Witten.

Almost made it: well, no one but I think Green, Allen, Ertz, and Rudolph have potential to be in the 4-7 range.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Weakest collection of dynasty RBs since I've been playing. I love Lacy and Gio, but the fact that they are top 5 says more about the position as a whole than it does the two of them.

Just a few years ago the top RBs were: AP, CJ, MJD, Foster, Rice, McCoy, Charles, DMC, and Forte...all in their prime.

I wrote about this during the season. In 2010, the average point of VBD was produced by an RB age 24.7. When I ran the numbers at midseason, the average point of VBD was produced by an RB age 27.1. The average age went up by 2.4 years in a 3-year span! The implications of that are difficult to fathom- basically, every RB in the league continues getting older, and almost no new productive backs have come in to supplant them. Just three of the top 12 RBs entered the league in the past FOUR DRAFTS (Lacy this year, Murray three years ago, and Mathews four years ago).

The last time the average RB was this old was back in 2004, but that was the heydey of the stud running back, so those old RBs were much more productive. 2013 saw three RBs top 250 points and eight top 200 points. 2004 saw SEVEN RBs top 250 and 11 top 200, plus Priest Holmes who scored 198 points... in 8 games (he would have skewed the average age even higher if he'd managed to stay healthy that year). In 2004, Tomlinson, Rudi Johnson, Domanick Davis (nee Williams), Clinton Portis, Brian Westbrook, and Willis McGahee were all top 12 at age 25 or younger. In 2013, you've got McCoy, Murray, and Lacy. That's it.

I think you'd have to go all the way back to 1999/2000 to find a comparable turd sandwich at RB, but of course, in 1999/2000 the WR and QB talent was just so-so, so RBs remained relatively valuable compared to other positions. Not so in 2014, where the passing explosion has QB and WR production at an all-time high, and much of it is coming from young, record-setting players such as Cam Newton and Josh Gordon. I don't think it's any stretch at all to say that, relative to the other positions, RB value is the lowest it's been in at least 20 years.

So if you've got two RBs putting up good #s you were at a huge advantage last year and could be again in 2014.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Weakest collection of dynasty RBs since I've been playing. I love Lacy and Gio, but the fact that they are top 5 says more about the position as a whole than it does the two of them.

Just a few years ago the top RBs were: AP, CJ, MJD, Foster, Rice, McCoy, Charles, DMC, and Forte...all in their prime.

I wrote about this during the season. In 2010, the average point of VBD was produced by an RB age 24.7. When I ran the numbers at midseason, the average point of VBD was produced by an RB age 27.1. The average age went up by 2.4 years in a 3-year span! The implications of that are difficult to fathom- basically, every RB in the league continues getting older, and almost no new productive backs have come in to supplant them. Just three of the top 12 RBs entered the league in the past FOUR DRAFTS (Lacy this year, Murray three years ago, and Mathews four years ago).

The last time the average RB was this old was back in 2004, but that was the heydey of the stud running back, so those old RBs were much more productive. 2013 saw three RBs top 250 points and eight top 200 points. 2004 saw SEVEN RBs top 250 and 11 top 200, plus Priest Holmes who scored 198 points... in 8 games (he would have skewed the average age even higher if he'd managed to stay healthy that year). In 2004, Tomlinson, Rudi Johnson, Domanick Davis (nee Williams), Clinton Portis, Brian Westbrook, and Willis McGahee were all top 12 at age 25 or younger. In 2013, you've got McCoy, Murray, and Lacy. That's it.

I think you'd have to go all the way back to 1999/2000 to find a comparable turd sandwich at RB, but of course, in 1999/2000 the WR and QB talent was just so-so, so RBs remained relatively valuable compared to other positions. Not so in 2014, where the passing explosion has QB and WR production at an all-time high, and much of it is coming from young, record-setting players such as Cam Newton and Josh Gordon. I don't think it's any stretch at all to say that, relative to the other positions, RB value is the lowest it's been in at least 20 years.

So if you've got two RBs putting up good #s you were at a huge advantage last year and could be again in 2014.

Maybe. In my opinion, it's more a drop in market value vs point differential in the short term. Many of the current contending teams in my leagues are trotting out different combos of Forte / Lynch / Peterson / Bush / etc and holding their own for the most part against my combos of Charles / McCoy / Matthews (2 of those 3 in most). My advantage over those teams is going to come in a few years.Anecdotal, certainly, but it fits with my general perception (and Adam's study) that while RB production has fallen off, the more significant fact is that the age of those productive RBs has gone way up, and thus their market / startup value has gone way down.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I think Harvin is only a top 5 WR if everything works perfectly, and that involves staying healthy and not getting hurt or getting a headache (30% chance of either of those any given week), and he needs to be fed the ball like his stretch run of eliteness in Minn. That just isn't going to happen on this offense (and playing with this defense).

Not meaning to pick nits, but iirc, Harvin hasn't had any migraines since 2010, when he was diagnosed with and treated for sleep apnea.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Weakest collection of dynasty RBs since I've been playing. I love Lacy and Gio, but the fact that they are top 5 says more about the position as a whole than it does the two of them.

Just a few years ago the top RBs were: AP, CJ, MJD, Foster, Rice, McCoy, Charles, DMC, and Forte...all in their prime.

I wrote about this during the season. In 2010, the average point of VBD was produced by an RB age 24.7. When I ran the numbers at midseason, the average point of VBD was produced by an RB age 27.1. The average age went up by 2.4 years in a 3-year span! The implications of that are difficult to fathom- basically, every RB in the league continues getting older, and almost no new productive backs have come in to supplant them. Just three of the top 12 RBs entered the league in the past FOUR DRAFTS (Lacy this year, Murray three years ago, and Mathews four years ago).

The last time the average RB was this old was back in 2004, but that was the heydey of the stud running back, so those old RBs were much more productive. 2013 saw three RBs top 250 points and eight top 200 points. 2004 saw SEVEN RBs top 250 and 11 top 200, plus Priest Holmes who scored 198 points... in 8 games (he would have skewed the average age even higher if he'd managed to stay healthy that year). In 2004, Tomlinson, Rudi Johnson, Domanick Davis (nee Williams), Clinton Portis, Brian Westbrook, and Willis McGahee were all top 12 at age 25 or younger. In 2013, you've got McCoy, Murray, and Lacy. That's it.

I think you'd have to go all the way back to 1999/2000 to find a comparable turd sandwich at RB, but of course, in 1999/2000 the WR and QB talent was just so-so, so RBs remained relatively valuable compared to other positions. Not so in 2014, where the passing explosion has QB and WR production at an all-time high, and much of it is coming from young, record-setting players such as Cam Newton and Josh Gordon. I don't think it's any stretch at all to say that, relative to the other positions, RB value is the lowest it's been in at least 20 years.

So if you've got two RBs putting up good #s you were at a huge advantage last year and could be again in 2014.

Maybe. In my opinion, it's more a drop in market value vs point differential in the short term. Many of the current contending teams in my leagues are trotting out different combos of Forte / Lynch / Peterson / Bush / etc and holding their own for the most part against my combos of Charles / McCoy / Matthews (2 of those 3 in most). My advantage over those teams is going to come in a few years.Anecdotal, certainly, but it fits with my general perception (and Adam's study) that while RB production has fallen off, the more significant fact is that the age of those productive RBs has gone way up, and thus their market / startup value has gone way down.

Yeah. The RB position as a whole actually produced slightly more fantasy points in 2013 than it did in 2010 (11,918 points vs. 11,910 points in PPR), but that production was produced, on average, by RBs who were 2-3 years older. Top RBs are pretty much just as valuable from a year-to-year perspective, but they're all a lot closer to hitting the wall and seeing their value go in the tank, so they're all less valuable from a dynasty perspective.

Or, to put it another way, 28-year-old Adrian Peterson was roughly as productive as 25-year-old Adrian Peterson, but who would you rather own in dynasty?

 

[karmarooster]

I think Harvin is only a top 5 WR if everything works perfectly, and that involves staying healthy and not getting hurt or getting a headache (30% chance of either of those any given week), and he needs to be fed the ball like his stretch run of eliteness in Minn. That just isn't going to happen on this offense (and playing with this defense).

Not meaning to pick nits, but iirc, Harvin hasn't had any migraines since 2010, when he was diagnosed with and treated for sleep apnea.

I had not heard this about the sleep apnea, but I rode the ups and downs with Harvin in Minnesota as a weekly question mark, and then a weekly stud, and then injured again last season. I'd say he's one of the most stressful 'elite' players to have.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I think Harvin is only a top 5 WR if everything works perfectly, and that involves staying healthy and not getting hurt or getting a headache (30% chance of either of those any given week), and he needs to be fed the ball like his stretch run of eliteness in Minn. That just isn't going to happen on this offense (and playing with this defense).

Not meaning to pick nits, but iirc, Harvin hasn't had any migraines since 2010, when he was diagnosed with and treated for sleep apnea.

I had not heard this about the sleep apnea, but I rode the ups and downs with Harvin in Minnesota as a weekly question mark, and then a weekly stud, and then injured again last season. I'd say he's one of the most stressful 'elite' players to have.

Prior to his ankle injury in his last season in Minnesota, Harvin wasn't any more of a "weekly question mark" than any other WR in the league. Before his ankle injury, Harvin appeared in 54 out of a possible 57 career games. Of those 57 games, he appeared as questionable or worse 16 times, 8 of which were a result of his migraines (which, as mentioned, he later had diagnosed and treated). For comparison, over the exact same span, Calvin appeared as questionable or worse 9 times.

It's not like Percy Harvin was the second coming of Brian Westbrook or Steve McNair. Outside of his migraines, he wasn't appearing on the injury report any more or any less than the typical top receivers.

 

[kurtrudder]

Aaron Rodgers
Andrew Luck
Cam Newton
Drew Brees
Peyton Manning

Jamaal Charles
LeSean McCoy
Adrian Peterson
Doug Martin
Eddie Lacy

Calvin Johnson
AJ Green
Dez Bryant
Demaryius Thomas
Julio Jones

Jimmy Graham
Rob Gronkowski
Jordan Reed
Julius Thomas
Jordan Cameron