Hi Jeff,
I posted about a month ago to ask you about draft strategy. I am drafting from the #9 spot this year. I wanted to run some mocks by you and also see if some of your recommendations might have changed as time and pre-season games have passed. My draft is this Sunday so I really want to get my strategy finalized. Here is data about my league that I think will help in the analysis. I play in a 10 team .5 PPR redraft league. Scoring is 6 pts. all TD's including passing. .5 PPR for RB, WR and TE. 1 pt. per 20 yds. passing, and 1 pt. per 10 yds. rushing/receiving. Def get 20 pts. for a shut out all the way to -10 for 35+ pts. scored against. We start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 RB/WR, 1 DEF/Spec Tm., 1 K 1 IDP. 18 rd. draft (first year for this, it has been 16 rds. previously). This year I am drafting out of the 9 hole. I wanted to give you some data on how our drafts have gone over the past 2 years, as I figured this would give you an idea of the tendencies in our league. In 2009: In the first 5 rds. 21 RB's were taken (8 in the 1st rd.), 17 WR's (2 in the 1st rd.), 6 QB's (4 in the 2nd rd.), 5 TE's (5 in the 5th rd.),1 DEF (run came in the 7th when 5 came off the board), 0 K and 0 IDP. In 2010: In the first 5 rds. 21 rbs. were taken (7 in the first rd.) 15 Wr's (2 in the first rd.) 8 QB's ( 1 in the first rd., 4 in the 2nd), 6 TE's (2 in the 4th rd., 4 in the 5th rd.), 0 DEF (2 in the 7th rd., 4 in the 8th rd.) 0 IDP. Wild card is we have 3 new players this year. When we first spoke you suggested going RB/RB or even RB/RB/RB and waiting on a QB and TE (unless I could get Gates in the 4th or later). QB's you suggested were Roethslisberger and Freeman (as a #2). In my league I would likely need to take Roethslisberger in the 5th though as QB's fly off the board, as you can see from the data above. I have tried an Eli/Stafford combo in mocks as they have a nice combined schedule. You also suggested Cooley/Daniels/Winslow as TE's. I might be able to get Daniels in the 5th as TE's also fly off the board in my league too. I have tended to go with Winslow/Pettigrew. Oh, last thing, there tends to be a run on DEF's in the 7th and 8th in my league due to the inflated scoring for them based on pts. against. Anyway here are the mocks. If you could tell me which team you like best and any suggestions you have I would really appreciate it.Your advice is really helpful. I will leave out the K's and IDP as which and where you draft them aren't significant.
Here I started off RB/WR and took a QB early (in the 3rd).
QB: Romo, Campbell
RB: McFadden, Bradshaw, Ingram, Hightower, R. Bush
WR: A. Johnson, S. Holmes, A. Collie, L. Evans
TE: Winslow, Pettigrew
DEF: Steelers, Chargers
Rate my team app rated it Bottom line: 90/80/73, however in my league Romo is probably in gone in the 3rd, so if I substitute QB 7 (P. Manning) it drops to 85/80/69.
Here I started off RB/RB/RB though McFadden fell to me in the 3rd which I doubt happens in my league.
QB: Roethlisberger, E. Manning
RB: Mendenhall, Forte, McFadden, C. Wells, S. Vereen
WR: B. Marshall, P. Harvin, J. Knox, J. Ford, J. Simpson
TE: J. Graham, O. Daniels
DEF: Jets
Rate my team app rated it: 85/75/61
Started off RB/RB
QB: Stafford/E. Manning
RB: Mendenhall, McFadden, Bradshaw, R. Bush, R. Jennings
WR: M. Austin, B. Lloyd, B. Marshall, L. Evans
TE: Winslow, J. Cook
DEF: Steelers
Rate my team app rated it 80/70/55
Started off RB/WR and took a TE in the 5th
QB: Stafford/E. Manning
RB: Mendenhall, F. Jones, M. Ingram, R. Bush, M. Bush
WR: C. Johnson, M. Austin, B. Marshall, L. Evans
TE: J. Finley, R. Gronkowski
Def: Patriots, Giants
Rate my team app rated it 80/70/60
I would definitely appreciate any thoughts you have. I know it is alot of data, but I really think it will help solidify things for me. Thanks.
I posted about a month ago to ask you about draft strategy. I am drafting from the #9 spot this year. I wanted to run some mocks by you and also see if some of your recommendations might have changed as time and pre-season games have passed. My draft is this Sunday so I really want to get my strategy finalized. Here is data about my league that I think will help in the analysis. I play in a 10 team .5 PPR redraft league. Scoring is 6 pts. all TD's including passing. .5 PPR for RB, WR and TE. 1 pt. per 20 yds. passing, and 1 pt. per 10 yds. rushing/receiving. Def get 20 pts. for a shut out all the way to -10 for 35+ pts. scored against. We start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 RB/WR, 1 DEF/Spec Tm., 1 K 1 IDP. 18 rd. draft (first year for this, it has been 16 rds. previously). This year I am drafting out of the 9 hole. I wanted to give you some data on how our drafts have gone over the past 2 years, as I figured this would give you an idea of the tendencies in our league. In 2009: In the first 5 rds. 21 RB's were taken (8 in the 1st rd.), 17 WR's (2 in the 1st rd.), 6 QB's (4 in the 2nd rd.), 5 TE's (5 in the 5th rd.),1 DEF (run came in the 7th when 5 came off the board), 0 K and 0 IDP. In 2010: In the first 5 rds. 21 rbs. were taken (7 in the first rd.) 15 Wr's (2 in the first rd.) 8 QB's ( 1 in the first rd., 4 in the 2nd), 6 TE's (2 in the 4th rd., 4 in the 5th rd.), 0 DEF (2 in the 7th rd., 4 in the 8th rd.) 0 IDP. Wild card is we have 3 new players this year. When we first spoke you suggested going RB/RB or even RB/RB/RB and waiting on a QB and TE (unless I could get Gates in the 4th or later). QB's you suggested were Roethslisberger and Freeman (as a #2). In my league I would likely need to take Roethslisberger in the 5th though as QB's fly off the board, as you can see from the data above. I have tried an Eli/Stafford combo in mocks as they have a nice combined schedule. You also suggested Cooley/Daniels/Winslow as TE's. I might be able to get Daniels in the 5th as TE's also fly off the board in my league too. I have tended to go with Winslow/Pettigrew. Oh, last thing, there tends to be a run on DEF's in the 7th and 8th in my league due to the inflated scoring for them based on pts. against. Anyway here are the mocks. If you could tell me which team you like best and any suggestions you have I would really appreciate it.Your advice is really helpful. I will leave out the K's and IDP as which and where you draft them aren't significant.
Here I started off RB/WR and took a QB early (in the 3rd).
QB: Romo, Campbell
RB: McFadden, Bradshaw, Ingram, Hightower, R. Bush
WR: A. Johnson, S. Holmes, A. Collie, L. Evans
TE: Winslow, Pettigrew
DEF: Steelers, Chargers
Rate my team app rated it Bottom line: 90/80/73, however in my league Romo is probably in gone in the 3rd, so if I substitute QB 7 (P. Manning) it drops to 85/80/69.
Here I started off RB/RB/RB though McFadden fell to me in the 3rd which I doubt happens in my league.
QB: Roethlisberger, E. Manning
RB: Mendenhall, Forte, McFadden, C. Wells, S. Vereen
WR: B. Marshall, P. Harvin, J. Knox, J. Ford, J. Simpson
TE: J. Graham, O. Daniels
DEF: Jets
Rate my team app rated it: 85/75/61
Started off RB/RB
QB: Stafford/E. Manning
RB: Mendenhall, McFadden, Bradshaw, R. Bush, R. Jennings
WR: M. Austin, B. Lloyd, B. Marshall, L. Evans
TE: Winslow, J. Cook
DEF: Steelers
Rate my team app rated it 80/70/55
Started off RB/WR and took a TE in the 5th
QB: Stafford/E. Manning
RB: Mendenhall, F. Jones, M. Ingram, R. Bush, M. Bush
WR: C. Johnson, M. Austin, B. Marshall, L. Evans
TE: J. Finley, R. Gronkowski
Def: Patriots, Giants
Rate my team app rated it 80/70/60
I would definitely appreciate any thoughts you have. I know it is alot of data, but I really think it will help solidify things for me. Thanks.