two_dollars
Footballguy
How many games can he reasonably be expected to be fantasy relevant now that Mendenhall is back practicing with the 1's?
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Why is nobody talking about Dwyer? (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Teezee
- Start date
Zero. Same as before Mendenhall was back practicing with the 1's.
Godsbrother
Footballguy
Disagree. Mendy may be practicing but is not ready to come back. Redman is banged up and will not be the workhorse we were expecting, at least not right away. Dwyer is going to get some carries early on and if he makes the most of them he could be very relevant.
DoubleG
Footballguy
The same we could before - 3. The 3 right before the bye. I don't buy "the light finally went on" - I also don't buy the Steelers tossing their workhorse overboard. Some will bemoan Mendenhall's low(ish) ypc...behind what even the Steelers know is a BAD offensive line. Then look at Dwyer's stats in preseason against backups.Dwyer might get you a start or two (which, if you're waiting for a guy like TRich to get going after week 1 or so) - but after that, he will likely be relegated to a handful of touches or mop up duty once Mendy has turned in 100+ in a game.
Wadsworth
Footballguy
I think that is the part many people are misinterpreting. Is seems that in the fantasy community Mendenhall is seen as a strong starter that would be very difficult for Dwyer or Redman to beat out. Mendy has been decent as an NFL RB, but there is clearly room for improvement. If either Dwyer or Redman comes in and plays well it will put immediate pressure on Mendy. Any Pitt RB that comes in and averages 4.5-5.0 per carry and doesn't fumble is going to have a good shot at keeping the job for the season.
Wadsworth
Footballguy
The point is not how you think Dwyer or Redman will perform. The point is that if either of them comes in and outperforms Mendenhall's track record they will be given a shot. This is not a case of an entrenched vet that has been playing at a high level missing a few games. There is an opportunity for a RB to take that job. I do not think Dwyer will take it either, but I am willing to spend a late pick on him just in case I am wrong. Not many late picks have a legit chance to claim a starting job if they get off to a good start.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Tomlinson's yards/carry:
2,001 3.65
2,004 3.94
2,008 3.80
2,009 3.27
Was he a bad RB in 2001, 2004, 2008 and 2009?
2,001 3.65
2,004 3.94
2,008 3.80
2,009 3.27
Was he a bad RB in 2001, 2004, 2008 and 2009?
Wadsworth
Footballguy
LT caught over 50 passes in his first 8 seasons.(Mendy never over 25)LT scored double digit rushing TDs in his first 9 seasons. (Mendy once in 4 seasons)LT averaged 4.9 and 5.3 in 2002 and 2003; in between two of the years you listed.(Mendy has had one season over his career average of 4.1 ypc)In 08 and 09 he was not longer the elite RB he was previously.It not that I think Mendenhall a "bad RB" as you put it. He is decent. But this idea that it is his job even if Redman or Dwyer comes in and plays very well ignores that fact that in spite of fantasy success, Mendenhall has been pretty average as an NFL RB.
Class Dismissed
Footballguy
Last edited by a moderator:
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Am I high on Dwyer...not really.
Is he a great flier pick at any Round below 9-10? Absolutely. He's lumped in with guys like Pierre Thomas, Daniel Thomas, LeGarrette Blount, etc...those guys already have definitions attached to them in their current state. Now if Reggie Bush or Doug Martin go down - their respective values go up. But they offer very little in terms of ascending asset value.
Dwyer on the other hand offers an opportunity. The level of that opportunity can be debated, but it is clear that:
- His pre-season was noteworthy and that comes from Tomlin.
- His early season competition for carries (Redman) has a career regular season line of 162/726/3. Point: He's not entrenched.
- Dwyer actually had a decent pedigree coming out of Ga. Tech.
If he turns into a peridocially usable asset, you've made a good pick in this area of the draft and there exists at least some HR potential. I wouldn't count on it - but then again, what would you be counting on from 10th rounders?
Is he a great flier pick at any Round below 9-10? Absolutely. He's lumped in with guys like Pierre Thomas, Daniel Thomas, LeGarrette Blount, etc...those guys already have definitions attached to them in their current state. Now if Reggie Bush or Doug Martin go down - their respective values go up. But they offer very little in terms of ascending asset value.
Dwyer on the other hand offers an opportunity. The level of that opportunity can be debated, but it is clear that:
- His pre-season was noteworthy and that comes from Tomlin.
- His early season competition for carries (Redman) has a career regular season line of 162/726/3. Point: He's not entrenched.
- Dwyer actually had a decent pedigree coming out of Ga. Tech.
If he turns into a peridocially usable asset, you've made a good pick in this area of the draft and there exists at least some HR potential. I wouldn't count on it - but then again, what would you be counting on from 10th rounders?
Possum
Footballguy
also, to me, Dwyer looks like a more talented athlete and runner than Redman when I've watched them play (last year and this preseason). Of course it's a subjective non-expert opinion, but I feel like if Dwyer's gotten himself in shape and taking his career more seriously this year than he has previously, he's going to eventually move ahead of Redman on the depth chart anyway.
Tau837
Footballguy
Agree the sample size is small, but has he made more than one big play in his career? He had a 76 yard run last year. Otherwise, he had 24 touches for 81 yards and 1 first down in 2 seasons. He has never scored a TD in his career.Or are you really just talking about preseason?
donkshow
Footballguy
I think Dwyer has the skill level to look solid and become the starting RB in Pittsburgh IMO. Whether he embraces this opportunity and does that remains to be seen. But he can catch the ball and run as well.
Maybe we see him in a Sproles-type roll. 600 rushing yards, 400 receiving yards.
Maybe we see him in a Sproles-type roll. 600 rushing yards, 400 receiving yards.
Tau837
Footballguy
Can you explain the bolded? Dwyer has 1 catch in 2 seasons in the NFL, and he had just 15 catches in 40 college games. He caught 4 passes this preseason; are you viewing that as a strong indicator that he will be involved in the passing game this year?
9/4/12 12:36PMAlan Robinson @arobinson_TribTomlin didn't say whether Redman or Dwyer will start at RB. Probably will be determined by how Redman (ankle) practicers. #steelers-
Last edited by a moderator:
Lavachebeadsman
Footballguy
Week 1 line predictions?
What's the single game rushing record?
By halftime.
donkshow
Footballguy
He had 200+ one college year and this preseason had a solid game of 3 catches for 45ish yards. I thought he looked good that game. I probably got a little excited citing a Sproles type role, 700/200 split is likely much more reasonable And I think he can do that if given the opportunity.
per Rotoworld news:
Rashard Mendenhall showed "burst and long speed" that left Steelers defensive players "buzzing" in Monday's practice.
This comes on the heels of coach Mike Tomlin's surprising declaration that the Steelers are "leaving the door open" for Mendenhall to start the season opener, pending his knee's response to this week's practice workload. "He looked incredible," said DE Brett Keisel. Added ILB Lawrence Timmons, "I thought he looked great. He was running well, finishing runs. I'm excited for him." While it's great news for Mendenhall's progress, we're highly skeptical that he will see significant action at Denver after missing the entire preseason. This does put a bit of a damper on Jonathan Dwyer's sleeper outlook, however.
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/4652/rashard-mendenhall
Rashard Mendenhall showed "burst and long speed" that left Steelers defensive players "buzzing" in Monday's practice.
This comes on the heels of coach Mike Tomlin's surprising declaration that the Steelers are "leaving the door open" for Mendenhall to start the season opener, pending his knee's response to this week's practice workload. "He looked incredible," said DE Brett Keisel. Added ILB Lawrence Timmons, "I thought he looked great. He was running well, finishing runs. I'm excited for him." While it's great news for Mendenhall's progress, we're highly skeptical that he will see significant action at Denver after missing the entire preseason. This does put a bit of a damper on Jonathan Dwyer's sleeper outlook, however.
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/4652/rashard-mendenhall
Was coming in here to quote this exact article. I think barring a mendenhall injury, Dwyer is not looking so hot past week2
EBF
Footballguy
I was with you until this line. Mendenhall is not a top 5 NFL running back, but he's pretty good. Dwyer will be lucky to turn out that well. However, Mendenhall's contract is up after this season, and if Dwyer shows enough then maybe they'll let Rashard walk and make him the unquestioned starter in 2013. Pretty messy situation in redraft leagues, but in dynasty it might be good to luck up the Dwyer/Mendenhall combo if you own one of them. You could be looking at two starting RBs a year from now.'Teezee said:
two_dollars
Footballguy
Wow, 8 months from an ACL tear he could be playing in an NFL game?
Same with Adrian Peterson; they tore their knees up within a week or so of each other I believe. Still think it'll take a few weeks to get up to speed but by midseason they could be most of, if not all the way back.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
People are a decade behind with their thinking about injuries. If Thomas can do his achilles and come back in nine months to be a stud why not?
Mendenhall had a simple ACL. And Charles is almost a year removed from his injury now. Peterson returning early in the year would still be full on amazing IMO. His injury was much worse and also happened late.
Mendenhall had a simple ACL. And Charles is almost a year removed from his injury now. Peterson returning early in the year would still be full on amazing IMO. His injury was much worse and also happened late.
Don't forget WelkerHe tore his ACL + MCL 1st week of january 2010. Had 8 catches 2 TDs week 1
Max Maximus
Footballguy
I recommend you guys read this article: http://www.footballdocs.com/RB_injury_rule.htmlIt compares the stats before and after for RBs such as Deece, Jamal Lewis, Terrell Davis, etc.
ACL is tougher for a RB to recover from. RBs need the speed and need the ability to make a cut over guys like Welker (slot WR.. catch and drop to the floor)
Anyway, I guess we will all found out how guys like AP, Rashard, Charles, Eric Berry, Kenny Britt do this year..
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Even if Redman isnt the starter, he's going to be limited regardless. I expect a heavy dose of Dwyer. DEN D clear strength is their pass rush, I expect Dwyer to gash them at least 3 times for ~10+ yards due to overpursuit, audible, etc. Plus remember no DJ Williams who is suspended and their best player in run defense, certainly tackle wise.If Dwyer is declared the starter, Id think something like 16/80 is his floor with around a 0.6-7 chance for a TD.'Lavachebeadsman said:
Last edited by a moderator:
JamesTheScot
Footballguy
Thomas Davis called in to say that's not such a great idea.
Coach Mike Tomlin suggested that RB Isaac Redman must get over his ankle injury to start at Denver Sunday night.
Redman did practice on Monday, but Tomlin lumped him in with players such as Rashard Mendenhall and James Harrison in seeing "where the week takes us." Despite Tomlin's newfound optimism on Mendenhall, it's doubtful that he will play in the opener. The upshot is that Jonathan Dwyer could be in line for a major role this week.
Related: Jonathan Dwyer
Source: Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
Redman did practice on Monday, but Tomlin lumped him in with players such as Rashard Mendenhall and James Harrison in seeing "where the week takes us." Despite Tomlin's newfound optimism on Mendenhall, it's doubtful that he will play in the opener. The upshot is that Jonathan Dwyer could be in line for a major role this week.
Related: Jonathan Dwyer
Source: Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
gethugefast1
Footballguy
Jonathan Dwyer - RB - Steelers
Coach Mike Tomlin has been impressed with Jonathan Dwyer's improvement after a strong preseason showing.
"There's a certain level of growth and maturity," said Tomlin. "(And) he is in better physical condition than he has been in the past." Dwyer has thoroughly outplayed presumed starter Isaac Redman, whose status is "uncertain" for Sunday night while recovering from an ankle injury. Dwyer should be owned in 10-and 12-team leagues as a potential Week 1 starter.
Source: Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
Sep 4 - 7:35 PM
Coach Mike Tomlin has been impressed with Jonathan Dwyer's improvement after a strong preseason showing.
"There's a certain level of growth and maturity," said Tomlin. "(And) he is in better physical condition than he has been in the past." Dwyer has thoroughly outplayed presumed starter Isaac Redman, whose status is "uncertain" for Sunday night while recovering from an ankle injury. Dwyer should be owned in 10-and 12-team leagues as a potential Week 1 starter.
Source: Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
Sep 4 - 7:35 PM
two_dollars
Footballguy
So Dwyer might be an ok fill in until they start giving Mendenhall his reps. Dwyer can really help people out with MJD, TRich, Mathews, and maybe even Lynch for week 1.
Bobble Fett
Footballguy
"Coach Mike Tomlin has been impressed with Jonathan Dwyer's improvement after a strong preseason showing.
"There's a certain level of growth and maturity," said Tomlin. "(And) he is in better physical condition than he has been in the past."
Source: Pittsburgh Tribune-Review"
You do realize Tomlin said almost the same exact things about Mendenhall before his 2 seasons as the top back in Pittsburgh? Then again, how much control does Todd Haley have over how their RBs are used? He loved mixing and matching them in KC.... I'm choosing to keep Dwyer for his potential to be a breakthrough player this year.
"There's a certain level of growth and maturity," said Tomlin. "(And) he is in better physical condition than he has been in the past."
Source: Pittsburgh Tribune-Review"
You do realize Tomlin said almost the same exact things about Mendenhall before his 2 seasons as the top back in Pittsburgh? Then again, how much control does Todd Haley have over how their RBs are used? He loved mixing and matching them in KC.... I'm choosing to keep Dwyer for his potential to be a breakthrough player this year.
PlasmaDogPlasma
Footballguy
He loved mixing and matching them because he didn't want to give Charles a huge workload. Dwyer and Mendenhall are both big backs.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
I recommend you guys read this article: http://www.footballdocs.com/RB_injury_rule.htmlIt compares the stats before and after for RBs such as Deece, Jamal Lewis, Terrell Davis, etc.
ACL is tougher for a RB to recover from. RBs need the speed and need the ability to make a cut over guys like Welker (slot WR.. catch and drop to the floor)
Anyway, I guess we will all found out how guys like AP, Rashard, Charles, Eric Berry, Kenny Britt do this year..
No one commented on this information and its pretty interesting.The list begins with injuries dating back to 1983 and we see back then that significant injuries took more time to recuperate from and the impact was damning back then.
Curt Warner
ACL 1983
Rush yds 1449
Rec yds 325
TDs 14
came back 1985
Rush 1094 decrease of nearly 400 rush yards
REC 307 neglible decrease
TDs 9 and 5 less touchdowns
Terry Allen
ACL 1992
RUSH 1201
REC 478
TDs 15
came back 1994
RUSH 1031 derease of nearly 200 rush yards
REC 148 decrease of nearly 150 rec yards
TDs 8 decrease of 7 TDs
Jamal Anderson
ACL 1998
RUSH 1846
REC 319
TDs 16
came back 2000
RUSH 1024 decrease of over 800 rush yards
REC 382 decrease of around 150 rec yards
TDs 6 decrease of 10 touchdowns
Terrell Davis
ACL 1998
RUSH 2008
REC 217
TDs 23
came back 2000
RUSH 282 decrease of nearly 1,700 rush yards
REC 4 decrease of over 200 rec yards
TDs 2 decrease of 21 touchdowns
Go to the link as this list continues to injuries in the last eight years and then continues to the most recent significant injuries to running backs.
We see the recuperation time was still the same but the decrease in procdtion wasn't nearly as damning>>>
Ronnie Brown
ACL 2006
RUSH 1008
REC 276
TDs 5
came back 2008
RUSH 946 neglible decrease
REC 254 neglible
TDs 10 increase of 5 touchdowns
Deuce McAllister
ACL 2006
RUSH 1057
REC 198
TDs 10
came back 2008
RUSH 418 decrease of nearly 600 yards
REC 128 decrease of around 50 yards
TDs 6 decrease of 4 touchdowns
Kevin Smith
ACL 2008
RUSH 976
REC 286
TDs 8
came back 2010
RUSH 133 decrease of over 800 yards
REC 123 decrease of nearly 150 yards
TDs 0 decrease of 8 touchdowns
Up to the most recent significant injuries and what do we see?>>>>>>
Jamaal Charles
ACL 2010
RUSH 1467
REC 468
TDs 8
comes back this year
?
?
?
Tim Hightower
ACL 2010
RUSH 736
REC 136
TDs 5
comes back this year
?
?
?
Rashard Mendenhall
ACL 2011
RUSH 1273
REC 167
TDs 13
comes back this year
?
?
?
Knowshon Moreno
ACL 2010
RUSH 779
REC 372
TDs 8
comes back this year
?
?
?
Adrian Peterson
ACL 2011
RUSH 1298
REC 341
TDs 13
?
?
?
No running back has every come back as soon as Adrian Peterson and Rashard Mendenhall so we have no data to put this into any sort of context.
Its completely unbroken ground.
The talk that medicine has improved may or may not prove true but the historical precidence is damning for the first year back from major injuries to running backs.
We have absolutely no idea what to expect from the most recent injuries and the quickened return time simply because it has never happened with a running back.
The comparisions to wide receivers isn't applicable to running backs.
Deuce tore his October 10th 05 and had 1057/10 TDs in 13 starts in 2006Ronnie Brown tore his week 7 of 07 and had 916/10TDs in 13 starts in 08
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
I was going off the data from the above link: My linkIt looks like they tried to update an article that was posted years ago:
I think they may have mixed up some of the dates because I had to correct two when I posted the above data.
Good Info. As far as Peterson and Mendenhall......they may be back on the 53 man roster but I don't believe they are back with any significance.I recommend you guys read this article: http://www.footballdocs.com/RB_injury_rule.htmlIt compares the stats before and after for RBs such as Deece, Jamal Lewis, Terrell Davis, etc.
ACL is tougher for a RB to recover from. RBs need the speed and need the ability to make a cut over guys like Welker (slot WR.. catch and drop to the floor)
Anyway, I guess we will all found out how guys like AP, Rashard, Charles, Eric Berry, Kenny Britt do this year..
The list begins with injuries dating back to 1983 and we see back then that significant injuries took more time to recuperate from and the impact was damning back then.
Curt Warner
ACL 1983
Rush yds 1449
Rec yds 325
TDs 14
came back 1985
Rush 1094 decrease of nearly 400 rush yards
REC 307 neglible decrease
TDs 9 and 5 less touchdowns
Terry Allen
ACL 1992
RUSH 1201
REC 478
TDs 15
came back 1994
RUSH 1031 derease of nearly 200 rush yards
REC 148 decrease of nearly 150 rec yards
TDs 8 decrease of 7 TDs
Jamal Anderson
ACL 1998
RUSH 1846
REC 319
TDs 16
came back 2000
RUSH 1024 decrease of over 800 rush yards
REC 382 decrease of around 150 rec yards
TDs 6 decrease of 10 touchdowns
Terrell Davis
ACL 1998
RUSH 2008
REC 217
TDs 23
came back 2000
RUSH 282 decrease of nearly 1,700 rush yards
REC 4 decrease of over 200 rec yards
TDs 2 decrease of 21 touchdowns
Go to the link as this list continues to injuries in the last eight years and then continues to the most recent significant injuries to running backs.
We see the recuperation time was still the same but the decrease in procdtion wasn't nearly as damning>>>
Ronnie Brown
ACL 2006
RUSH 1008
REC 276
TDs 5
came back 2008
RUSH 946 neglible decrease
REC 254 neglible
TDs 10 increase of 5 touchdowns
Deuce McAllister
ACL 2006
RUSH 1057
REC 198
TDs 10
came back 2008
RUSH 418 decrease of nearly 600 yards
REC 128 decrease of around 50 yards
TDs 6 decrease of 4 touchdowns
Kevin Smith
ACL 2008
RUSH 976
REC 286
TDs 8
came back 2010
RUSH 133 decrease of over 800 yards
REC 123 decrease of nearly 150 yards
TDs 0 decrease of 8 touchdowns
Up to the most recent significant injuries and what do we see?>>>>>>
Jamaal Charles
ACL 2010
RUSH 1467
REC 468
TDs 8
comes back this year
?
?
?
Tim Hightower
ACL 2010
RUSH 736
REC 136
TDs 5
comes back this year
?
?
?
Rashard Mendenhall
ACL 2011
RUSH 1273
REC 167
TDs 13
comes back this year
?
?
?
Knowshon Moreno
ACL 2010
RUSH 779
REC 372
TDs 8
comes back this year
?
?
?
Adrian Peterson
ACL 2011
RUSH 1298
REC 341
TDs 13
?
?
?
No running back has every come back as soon as Adrian Peterson and Rashard Mendenhall so we have no data to put this into any sort of context.
Its completely unbroken ground.
The talk that medicine has improved may or may not prove true but the historical precidence is damning for the first year back from major injuries to running backs.
We have absolutely no idea what to expect from the most recent injuries and the quickened return time simply because it has never happened with a running back.
The comparisions to wide receivers isn't applicable to running backs.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Why are Thomas's recovery from a torn achilles (an injury that used to be career ending) and Welker's recovery from torn knee ligaments not relevant to the possibility that improvements in medicine have shortened the recovery time for RBs?
BuddyKnuckles
Footballguy
not to mention that of the last 7 major injuries on that list, 3 of them came back as good or better than before. It's not "unheard of" or "Physically impossible". modern elite athletes + modern medicine = the possibility of coming back strong from major leg injuries
LawFitz
Footballguy
RB's after ACLs are bad news generally, but I'm especially nervous for AP and Mendenhall given how quickly they are coming back. Too quick IMO. And AP tore more than just his ACL. He shredded almost his entire knee. No thanks for 2012.
Yes please on their talented backups on the super cheap. RB transition is the nucleus of fantasy football. Hits like these make teams EVERY year. Lots of lotto tix this season to take over for old or injured RBs.
Wilson
Turbin
Gerhardt
Dwyer
Hunter
Rodgers
Add in guys like Benson, Hillis and McGahee and RB2/flex were able to be mined this season.
Yes please on their talented backups on the super cheap. RB transition is the nucleus of fantasy football. Hits like these make teams EVERY year. Lots of lotto tix this season to take over for old or injured RBs.
Wilson
Turbin
Gerhardt
Dwyer
Hunter
Rodgers
Add in guys like Benson, Hillis and McGahee and RB2/flex were able to be mined this season.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
The two things about the list is that over time players had come back and played well but the shortened recovery times are the new element.According to the data on the list, and they have a few errors on dates, but using the overall trending of the data we haven't seen such short recovery times so it creates more uncertainty.They didn't provide any comparision with other positions and thus didn't provide any data so any historical data to put other positions injury/recovery data into proper context. Cherry picked data of one or two successes are not relevant unless we see the side-by-side historical data to place any specific cases of other positions into proper context with long historical RB significant injury data provided.Also I only posted the ACL injuries to put that ONE SPECIFIC injury into context and I'm sure someone could point out that ACL injuries have varrying degrees of severity but the list doesn't have that sort of insight and I wouldn't expect it to. So if anyone wishes to put the comparison of other positions into proper context they would have to show historical data so we could see a side-by-side comparison.
Dwyer is going to be a good plug in for Matthews, Trich and other owners of injured backs for a week or 2. The other thing to remember is if Dwyer is good in these starts that Mendenhall is a free agent at the end of the year, so dynasty wise I love Dwyer, redraft I love Dwyer for a couple weeks.
