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Will Peyton Break the TD record? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter TheFanatic
- Start date
B-Deep
Footballguy
he has 12
he needs 39 more
he has 13 games left
he has to average 3 a game. Now i still thik the odds are against him, he may not play all 13 games for one thing, but when you look at the numbers it is certainly very possible
gianmarco
Footballguy
All any QB has to do during the season is average 3 TDs/game and they'll finish with the 3rd highest TDs thrown in a season ever with 48.B-Deep said:
Of course it's possible, but it's possible for any QB to do it in any given year. I wouldn't consider it even remotely likely until at least half the season is done and he's either on pace or ahead of pace. He's no more likely to do it after 3 weeks now needing to average 3/week than he was starting week 1 when he needed to, shockingly, average 3/week.
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TheFanatic
Footballguy
See I knew people would say that this is still too early. This is an NFL board. No Fun League!
moleculo
Footballguy
Does it change your calculus to consider that Manning has averaged 3 td's over a 16 game span before?
jurb26
Footballguy
I say no. I think he will have about a 30% chance of it. Earlier this week I said 40%, but after thinking about it more I see a 3 TD average as more difficult than I originally thought. Once late Nov kicks in it may become more difficult to keep this pace. I think he'll finish with roughly 45.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
I think it's obvious that if he and the OC wanted it, and didnt care about killing clock and the flow of the game, they could easily be far above the pace they're on now. Like someone else said, he's putting up these numbers in halves of games. If they were doing the Belichick thing and stomping necks no matter the score, he could get it.
I don't think he will, because they won't throw all game all season. He'll get tantalizingly close, though, and then sit the last week of the season.
I don't think he will, because they won't throw all game all season. He'll get tantalizingly close, though, and then sit the last week of the season.
SportsGuru311
Footballguy
I would say yes. No one will stop this offense this year. They are a machine
G
General Tso
Guest
I would love to place a bet on this right now. I'd put the house on yes. When a great QB gets a record within sight the record always gets broken. I think Peyton shatters it and ends up with 55.
East Coast Bias
Footballguy
Week 15 at home vs San Diego.
Beerguzzler
Footballguy
Be careful what you wish for. Rivers loves playing keep away + McCoy knows that offense better than anyone.
purestrength
Footballguy
That's the team he broke Marino's record against in 2004 (TD pass to Stokley).
TheFanatic
Footballguy
It's way too early to talk about this. It's only 4 games.
Treesarepeopletoo
Footballguy
I don't think he will because he's happy handing the ball off when they've got a big lead and sitting out the fourth quarter when they've got a huge lead. He could have the record if he wanted it and Bill Belichick was his coach.
pizzatyme
Footballguy
msudaisy26
Footballguy
50 touchdown passes will go down soon, by 2020 I would be surprised if 50 touchdown passes was still top 10.
Here is some stats to back it up
Here are some stats since the 2004 "rule change" about PI and other rule changes that have followed making the game tilted more towards the offense.
Before 2004 there were only 10 different times a quarterback threw for 4500 + yards in a season
Since 2004 there has been 24
Before 2004 only once did a quarterback throw for more than 5000 yards
Since 2004 it has happened 5 times
Before 2004 a quarterback had thrown for 40+ touchdowns 3 times
Since 2004 it has happened 6 times.
Times are changing and the hurry up offense is the new rage. This record is going to go down several times in the next decade.
Marino will be lucky if his 5000 yard season is even a top 10 all time by the end of this decade
Brady will be lucky if his 50 touchdowns are top 5 by the end of the decade.
Here is some stats to back it up
Here are some stats since the 2004 "rule change" about PI and other rule changes that have followed making the game tilted more towards the offense.
Before 2004 there were only 10 different times a quarterback threw for 4500 + yards in a season
Since 2004 there has been 24
Before 2004 only once did a quarterback throw for more than 5000 yards
Since 2004 it has happened 5 times
Before 2004 a quarterback had thrown for 40+ touchdowns 3 times
Since 2004 it has happened 6 times.
Times are changing and the hurry up offense is the new rage. This record is going to go down several times in the next decade.
Marino will be lucky if his 5000 yard season is even a top 10 all time by the end of this decade
Brady will be lucky if his 50 touchdowns are top 5 by the end of the decade.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
through 4 games, I think he's on pace for 64 td?
2007 brady was on pace for 64 td thru 8.
2007 brady was on pace for 64 td thru 8.
lod01
Footballguy
The perfect storm has blown into Denver. Welker arrives along with a candy ### schedule incl. the horrid NFC Least And AFC South. The only tough games will be Houston who will shoot themselves in the foot and New England. Only way he doesn't break the record is an injury to himself or one of the WRs. Welker is the most likely. Manning got Dallas Clark, Stokely and Collie killed stat whoring it up.
Man of Zen
Footballguy
I'll be a lot more confident in guessing whether or not he has a shot after this next game against the Cowboys. Peyton should get plenty of chances to throw, but it's also the first time he'll face a legit pass rush coming after him from the blindside since Clady went down. If Peyton takes a lot of hits on Sunday, I think chances they keep throwing like they have been against the much tougher second-half schedule are minimal. If they do keep throwing like that after taking much abuse, I have doubts about his ability to last the year. If they protect him pretty well, I like his chances to keep it going for the rest of the year.
pizzatyme
Footballguy
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
The question now is whether or not he could do it blindfolded.
mbrasi
Footballguy
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moleculo
Footballguy
that's what I was saying earlier - he is doing his damage in halves of games. If everything is clicking and the game plan is working, Manning gets his in the first half. If not, it comes in the 2nd. We still haven't seen 4 solid quarters of domination.
JustinHawkins
Footballguy
Love watching the greatest I've ever seen do it so flawlessly. And he's so damn like able even if you aren't a colt or bronco fan.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
[icon]
Insoxicated
Got to enjoy him in College as well (went to Univ of Tenn 1994-99 - got a national title that last semester
). Bit of a goober (big surprise) but a good guy.... Used to come in the bar I tended at. Went sledding with him down the hill at College Park Apts once. He wore his helmet 
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Jags next week............................i dont see a 5-6 TD game. My guess is 2. Letdown week. 4 rushing TDs though for some guys
Sarnoff
Footballguy
(HULK)
(Smash)
So the rushing TD doesn't count? I thought the record was TDs, not passing TDs. What is the magic number for total TDs then?
TheFanatic
Footballguy
My favorite play in all of football is the naked boot with a slow QB. Thing of beauty!
TheFanatic
Footballguy
Oh, and this is way too early to talk about this guys. It's only week 5. We should not be talking about this. It's wrong.
