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WR Josh Gordon, KC (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Matt Waldman
- Start date
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Dismattle
Footballguy
Okay Truth be told Gordon doesn't really need much more than five
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I can't really remember what I posted where, but this really hasn't been the case for years. Brady throws to the guys he trusts and will even force the ball to people that are double or triple covered over some other guys. The WR3-4-5 types usually get the table scraps. The last few years, that's been Edelman, Gronk, White, and Amendola when he was there. I don't know how much he trusts Gordon or the other receiving options past Edelman and White.
Dismattle
Footballguy
Exactly case in point One notorious WR goes by Ocho Not only need to know the planned route But the adjustments Gordon should know even more now!
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
He forces it to Gronk, as I’d mentioned above.
But I think he checks down to white or Edelman or whomever he see’s open pretty frequently.
The quick timing routes he sometimes tries to put the ball in a tiny window for sure.
But I agree to a point - he had Hogan wide open a dozen times last year, looked at him, thought about it, & forced it elsewhere because he didn’t trust him.
I think with Gronk gone it’ll be Edelman as the forced throws.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Even the hardcore Gordon backers have to admit there's a lot for him to deal with to put up huge numbers . . .
- Not much practice to date
- What level of physical conditioning he's in
- How much better he knows the playbook than last year
- How in sync he can get with Brady
- How well everyone else on the offense does / fits
- How well the OL blocks to see how feasible it is for Brady to have time to throw deeper routes (they have to replace two OL starters)
- How much the Patriots will retool the offense for him
- If he can stay healthy (we haven't had a chance to see if this one even applies for a long, long time)
- And the 600 lb gorilla in the room, can he stay on the straight and narrow and be available for 16 games
Those are all things none of us can really answer. And anyone's guess is just that at this point . . . a guess.
- Not much practice to date
- What level of physical conditioning he's in
- How much better he knows the playbook than last year
- How in sync he can get with Brady
- How well everyone else on the offense does / fits
- How well the OL blocks to see how feasible it is for Brady to have time to throw deeper routes (they have to replace two OL starters)
- How much the Patriots will retool the offense for him
- If he can stay healthy (we haven't had a chance to see if this one even applies for a long, long time)
- And the 600 lb gorilla in the room, can he stay on the straight and narrow and be available for 16 games
Those are all things none of us can really answer. And anyone's guess is just that at this point . . . a guess.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Tau837
Footballguy
The team offense passing yardage incorporates lost sack yardage. The actual passing yards for the offense the past 3 seasons were 4405 (2018), 4619 (2017), and 4456 (2016). Given the expected improvement in the defense and the expected strong rushing offense, I think it is reasonable to project 4300/30 as the passing production to divide across the receivers.
But I prefer to project target distribution and then sort out the production. For this exercise, I assume everyone will be healthy and will play 16 games.
Last year, the Pats had 574 pass attempts. They had 587 in 2017 but just 550 in 2016. Seems reasonable to project 570 and project 10 to be spikes/throwaways, leaving 560 targets to split up.
Last year, the RBs, primarily White, got 31% of the targets. I see no reason for that to change this year. If anything, it could go up. But I will stick with 31%, which projects 174 targets to the RBs.
Last year, the TEs only got 13.7% of the targets. Gronk only had 72 targets. I can't see projecting TEs for less than 10% of team targets, so I'll go with that and project 56 targets to the TEs.
That leaves 330 targets for WRs.
From 2013-2018, Edelman has averaged 10 targets per game (regular and postseason games). Last year, he averaged 9.5 targets per game. Assuming 16 games, I can't see projecting him for less than 150 targets.
Last season, Gordon averaged 6.2 targets per game. That seems about right to me and projects to about 100 targets.
That would leave 80 targets for the rest of the WRs (Dorsett, Thomas, Harry, Meyers). Seems reasonable.
If Gordon catches 60% of his targets and repeats his YPR of 18.0, he would project to 60 receptions for 1080 yards. He had 3 TDs on 68 targets in NE last season. Scaling that to 100 targets implies 4.4 TDs, but I could see a small uptick on that.
Add it all up and I think a reasonable high projection for him is 100 targets, 60 receptions, 1080 yards, and 7 TDs. I think it's pretty unlikely he exceeds that production and very well may not meet it, in part because he has had difficulty staying on the field and in part because I expect the Pats offense to spread the ball around like they always do.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
“Peak physical condition” according to whom?
i saw him jogging in his pajama he looked ok, but clearly you’ve scanned every inch of Gordon’s body & know every ripple & curve as if it were your own, so who am I to question it.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Solid.
Which jives with WR2 upside. I think he’s pretty fairly priced for his ADP.
the real question I have is whether he’ll be consistent, or get 80% of his production in ~8-9 games.
He feels like a player who’ll go 10/170/2 one week and 3/67/0 the next. That’s purely gut-check. Partly based on @Anarchy99‘s thought process that his deep route running will open up the Pats run game & short yardage.
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bostonfred
Footballguy
Gordon is a wr1 getting used as a wr2 on a team where the wr2 gets used as a wr1. I don't expect them to build their offense around him but he's good enough to beat any defense on a play here or there and he's good enough that there will be weeks when his is the matchup they try to exploit. Wr3 with some upside. I would be shocked if he was top 10 but i would expect him to be top 30 ppg in games he plays. A different flavor of wil fuller.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Here were Gordon's weekly lines last year (if that would be helpful to anyone . . .
Targets-Receptions-Yardage-TD
MIA (W) 2-2-32-0
IND (W) 4-2-50-1
KCC (W) 9-5-42-0
CHI (W) 7-4-100-0
BUF (W) 6-4-42-0
GBP (W) 9-5-130-1
TEN (L) 12-4-81-0
NYJ (W) 5-5-70-0
MIN (W) 3-3-58-1
MIA (L) 9-5-96-0
PIT (L) 2-1-19-0
Targets-Receptions-Yardage-TD
MIA (W) 2-2-32-0
IND (W) 4-2-50-1
KCC (W) 9-5-42-0
CHI (W) 7-4-100-0
BUF (W) 6-4-42-0
GBP (W) 9-5-130-1
TEN (L) 12-4-81-0
NYJ (W) 5-5-70-0
MIN (W) 3-3-58-1
MIA (L) 9-5-96-0
PIT (L) 2-1-19-0
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Also of potential interest, here was the target distribution for the Patriots over the past five seasons (just to show how the top 5 players were in terms of targets):
2018: 123 - 108 - 72 - 68 - 55
2017: 114 - 105 - 86 - 72 - 59
2016: 159 - 86 - 73 - 58 - 48
2015: 120 - 88 - 87 - 74 - 54
2014: 134 - 131 - 119 - 77 - 42
Not sure there is much we can tell off of that, as there's been injuries, suspensions, personnel changes, philosophy changes, etc. all mixed in.
2018: 123 - 108 - 72 - 68 - 55
2017: 114 - 105 - 86 - 72 - 59
2016: 159 - 86 - 73 - 58 - 48
2015: 120 - 88 - 87 - 74 - 54
2014: 134 - 131 - 119 - 77 - 42
Not sure there is much we can tell off of that, as there's been injuries, suspensions, personnel changes, philosophy changes, etc. all mixed in.
Dismattle
Footballguy
my bad That 2nd year total was for only 14 games Maybe another couple 100 yd games so more like 1600 (again)
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I think we are pretty much at the point where very few people are going to chance their opinions. A large percentage of people will say he's a suspension waiting to happen and he is guaranteed to get suspended again. A small percentage of people will come up with reasons for him to put up numbers like 2013 and that's their conclusion.
Then there are others trying to figure out what lies in the middle . . . what is a realistic outcome if Gordon suits up and stays on the field for most of the season.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I think everyone here is missing the true upside of Josh Gordon, and (in my opinion) the most likely outcome.
Tom Brady gets hurt week 1, Josh Gordon steps into the role due to Hoyer having the flu, throws for 400 yards and 4 TDs (one to himself after it bounces off the helmet of an OL & he takes it 73 yards to the house)
Gordon goes on to throw for 5000 yards and 57 touchdowns.
the rest, as they say, will be history.
Sheesh. I can’t believe I’m the only one who gets it in here besides @Soulfly3.
(got yer back, buddy!)
Tom Brady gets hurt week 1, Josh Gordon steps into the role due to Hoyer having the flu, throws for 400 yards and 4 TDs (one to himself after it bounces off the helmet of an OL & he takes it 73 yards to the house)
Gordon goes on to throw for 5000 yards and 57 touchdowns.
the rest, as they say, will be history.
Sheesh. I can’t believe I’m the only one who gets it in here besides @Soulfly3.
(got yer back, buddy!)
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
az_prof
Footballguy
This makes sense to me; but don't you think with no stud TE that maybe the WRs share of targets will be more this year?
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hamsterdam
Footballguy
Started the draft with 3 RBs, happy to get Gordon in the 6th.
LawFitz
Footballguy
He's still commonly available even now as a WR3/4, even 5. I took him last week as my WR4/5, with Larry Fitz as his 4/5 compliment.
I did so fully expecting a slow and/or potentially maddeningly inconsistent week-to-week start to the season, as Bellychick likes to hide his most potent game plans for the stretch run and playoffs, a la Dion Lewis and Sony Mitch the last few years. I predict we don't see Gordon's best form until this stretch...
10 BYE WEEK
11 Sun, Nov 17 @ Philadelphia
12 Sun, Nov 24 vs Dallas
13 Sun, Dec 1 @ Houston
14 Sun, Dec 8 vs Kansas City
15 Sun, Dec 15 @ Cincinnati
16 Sun, Dec 22 vs Buffalo
***IF*** JG doesn't mentally or physically break beforehand, I am expecting a low-end WR1 on a PPG basis during the above run. Let's revisit this prediction at that point, assuming my IF qualification holds.
I did so fully expecting a slow and/or potentially maddeningly inconsistent week-to-week start to the season, as Bellychick likes to hide his most potent game plans for the stretch run and playoffs, a la Dion Lewis and Sony Mitch the last few years. I predict we don't see Gordon's best form until this stretch...
10 BYE WEEK
11 Sun, Nov 17 @ Philadelphia
12 Sun, Nov 24 vs Dallas
13 Sun, Dec 1 @ Houston
14 Sun, Dec 8 vs Kansas City
15 Sun, Dec 15 @ Cincinnati
16 Sun, Dec 22 vs Buffalo
***IF*** JG doesn't mentally or physically break beforehand, I am expecting a low-end WR1 on a PPG basis during the above run. Let's revisit this prediction at that point, assuming my IF qualification holds.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Concensus of the staff projections is around 45/750/4 with 14 games played.
The excellent run game / excellent defense scenario and the inter-related decline of TB and passing production that Anarchy99 has alluded to might be the most likely scenario which ties into the extrapolated 16 game projection of ~ 50/825/4.5.
Anarchy also referenced the fact that the primary beneficiaries of "no Gronk" were / have been Edelman / White.
But what if that has been the history because they did not have a 6'4" 225 WR that had been in the system longer than when Gordon joined last year? What if the calculus is different when you have someone on the outside who is (a) not a scrub and (b) a different kind of receiver than Cooks? i.e. someone from the Dez Bryant mold.
What if, not knowing if Gordon was coming back, the Pats drafted a big body / Gordon clone (Harry) and acquired a big body / Gordon clone (DT) via free agency, because the Dark Lord, who is infamous for zigging when everyone is sure he will zag, is about to unleash hell on the league via the wide receiver Gronk replacement?
The first way to attack that strawman is to say "well, clearly TB can't do that anymore".
The next way to attack that is to say well the defense and the run game are unstoppable juggernauts so why take the risk of adopting the passing model.
Those two attacks are possibly legitimate. Also possibly legitimate is an alternative scenario where the combination of the running game and "wide receiver Gronk" are used in tandem to feel the lamentations of the enemy beneath the dark lord's feet. The only thing that could stop Gronk was injury/suspension. Perhaps Bill has decided that the only thing that can stop wide receiver Gronk is injury/suspension.
Not that I believe any of this hypothetical, but is there a large potential upside to 50/825/4.5? You're damn right there is. I'll say the consensus estimate above is actually the floor, that the projection should be inflated by 20% for the Dez Bryant / big body difference versus history. 60/1000/6.
From 2012 to 2014, Dez Bryant averaged about 90/1240/14 with Romo, Witten, solid running game, and lesser wide receivers (Terence Williams, etc.).
So rather than asking is Josh Gordon less of a player today than he was in 2013, maybe we should be asking is Josh Gordon today less of a talent than 2013 Dez Bryant?
Ceiling 100/1400/16 (10 % better than peak Dez).
The excellent run game / excellent defense scenario and the inter-related decline of TB and passing production that Anarchy99 has alluded to might be the most likely scenario which ties into the extrapolated 16 game projection of ~ 50/825/4.5.
Anarchy also referenced the fact that the primary beneficiaries of "no Gronk" were / have been Edelman / White.
But what if that has been the history because they did not have a 6'4" 225 WR that had been in the system longer than when Gordon joined last year? What if the calculus is different when you have someone on the outside who is (a) not a scrub and (b) a different kind of receiver than Cooks? i.e. someone from the Dez Bryant mold.
What if, not knowing if Gordon was coming back, the Pats drafted a big body / Gordon clone (Harry) and acquired a big body / Gordon clone (DT) via free agency, because the Dark Lord, who is infamous for zigging when everyone is sure he will zag, is about to unleash hell on the league via the wide receiver Gronk replacement?
The first way to attack that strawman is to say "well, clearly TB can't do that anymore".
The next way to attack that is to say well the defense and the run game are unstoppable juggernauts so why take the risk of adopting the passing model.
Those two attacks are possibly legitimate. Also possibly legitimate is an alternative scenario where the combination of the running game and "wide receiver Gronk" are used in tandem to feel the lamentations of the enemy beneath the dark lord's feet. The only thing that could stop Gronk was injury/suspension. Perhaps Bill has decided that the only thing that can stop wide receiver Gronk is injury/suspension.
Not that I believe any of this hypothetical, but is there a large potential upside to 50/825/4.5? You're damn right there is. I'll say the consensus estimate above is actually the floor, that the projection should be inflated by 20% for the Dez Bryant / big body difference versus history. 60/1000/6.
From 2012 to 2014, Dez Bryant averaged about 90/1240/14 with Romo, Witten, solid running game, and lesser wide receivers (Terence Williams, etc.).
So rather than asking is Josh Gordon less of a player today than he was in 2013, maybe we should be asking is Josh Gordon today less of a talent than 2013 Dez Bryant?
Ceiling 100/1400/16 (10 % better than peak Dez).
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Edelman saw a ton of targets. White's numbers were almost exactly the same with or without Gronk.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
might be an unanticipated challenge based on DT's first game back (!).SeniorVBDStudent said:
coyote5
Footballguy
please never change
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
BravoConcensus of the staff projections is around 45/750/4 with 14 games played.
The excellent run game / excellent defense scenario and the inter-related decline of TB and passing production that Anarchy99 has alluded to might be the most likely scenario which ties into the extrapolated 16 game projection of ~ 50/825/4.5.
Anarchy also referenced the fact that the primary beneficiaries of "no Gronk" were / have been Edelman / White.
But what if that has been the history because they did not have a 6'4" 225 WR that had been in the system longer than when Gordon joined last year? What if the calculus is different when you have someone on the outside who is (a) not a scrub and (b) a different kind of receiver than Cooks? i.e. someone from the Dez Bryant mold.
What if, not knowing if Gordon was coming back, the Pats drafted a big body / Gordon clone (Harry) and acquired a big body / Gordon clone (DT) via free agency, because the Dark Lord, who is infamous for zigging when everyone is sure he will zag, is about to unleash hell on the league via the wide receiver Gronk replacement?
The first way to attack that strawman is to say "well, clearly TB can't do that anymore".
The next way to attack that is to say well the defense and the run game are unstoppable juggernauts so why take the risk of adopting the passing model.
Those two attacks are possibly legitimate. Also possibly legitimate is an alternative scenario where the combination of the running game and "wide receiver Gronk" are used in tandem to feel the lamentations of the enemy beneath the dark lord's feet. The only thing that could stop Gronk was injury/suspension. Perhaps Bill has decided that the only thing that can stop wide receiver Gronk is injury/suspension.
Not that I believe any of this hypothetical, but is there a large potential upside to 50/825/4.5? You're damn right there is. I'll say the consensus estimate above is actually the floor, that the projection should be inflated by 20% for the Dez Bryant / big body difference versus history. 60/1000/6.
From 2012 to 2014, Dez Bryant averaged about 90/1240/14 with Romo, Witten, solid running game, and lesser wide receivers (Terence Williams, etc.).
So rather than asking is Josh Gordon less of a player today than he was in 2013, maybe we should be asking is Josh Gordon today less of a talent than 2013 Dez Bryant?
Ceiling 100/1400/16 (10 % better than peak Dez).
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Soulfly3
Footballguy
well, i actually watched.
gordon drew targets, caught a 19 and 11yd pass, and drew a near 40yd PI call... that call led to him hitting the sidelines after smacking his back/back of his head off the turf... the next play? the 30yd TD to thomas. thanks josh!
and tom bra.... wait, the rookie qb in there for the first 2Q seemed to focus on DT who was playing inside, whereas gordon lined up outside
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Dismattle
Footballguy
yeah I dunno It sure seems that it may have been just one photo op Here's the link that draws me to that conclusion https://www.bostonherald.com/2019/08/07/brandon-powell-on-patriots-wr-josh-gordon-he-dusts-everyone/
Tau837
Footballguy
I gave the TEs 56 targets (10%), compared to 76 (14%) last season. I gave the WRs 330 targets (59%), compared to 306 (55%) last year.
chad in Indy
Footballguy
Demaryius Thomas also has to be factored in now as another big bodied outside WR. I realize he has been fantasy irrelevant for quite some time, but barring an injury, he will be one of those guys that will be game scripted and could frustrate the weekly upside of Gordon. He is over the 30 age barrier, but I can see him being a more versatile role playing version of the departed Patterson (personnel specific) with the better ability to run routes beyond 5 yds.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I mean.....446 pages. Big deal. His career is only just now really getting started.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Think $250/1000 FAAB is enough for FBG players championship?
Rove!
Footballguy
JoeSteeler
Footballguy
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skol asylum
Footballguy
Come to MN. Only kept 4 receivers.Soulfly3 said:
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
cutting DT might be a money thing. nfl.com mentioned that both team and receiver want him to come back.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
There are several scenarios that could come into play.
- They could need a roster spot to be able to put Harry on the 53-man roster but then will switch Harry to IR designated for return and bring back DT.
- They could be planning on resigning him for less money.
- They may want to wait until Week 2 and then bring him back so his pay would be week to week instead of fully guaranteed.
- They don't think he is ready and want to wait a few weeks to save a few bucks and will re-sign him at that point.
- They may want a roster spot available for other roster moves / signings / a trade.knowing that a new agreement with Thomas has already been agreed to.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Interesting that they would risk him getting a better deal elsewhere given his resume and Week 4 fitness demonstration.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
It's being discussed all over sports media here that both sides want to stay together and this is mostly a roster management thing. Some people suggesting DT will be back at practice on Monday.
