WR Tyreek Hill, MIA (11 Viewers)

[fruity pebbles]

I think im higher on this dude than anyone. Granted my league gives some points for return yardage that adds an additional 30-40 points but the only players I'd take ahead of him in a dynasty are Zeke, Gurley, Barkley, ODB, Hopkins and Evans.

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

Neat

Thanks, that was fun and informative -- esp. around elements I never considered, like the length of time foot contact with ground during stride is maintained helping with cut vectors (potentially offsetting speed drain by creating more friction). And super fun for those kids.

 

[menobrown]

I think im higher on this dude than anyone. Granted my league gives some points for return yardage that adds an additional 30-40 points but the only players I'd take ahead of him in a dynasty are Zeke, Gurley, Barkley, ODB, Hopkins and Evans.

I'll die on this Hill right there with you.

I had just posted in the trade thread that I felt Hill was had a legit chance to be the #1 WR in FF in next few years. 

What I did not post in the that thread was 2 days ago I traded Michael Thomas straight up for Hill. Did not post it because I just assumed everyone would think I lost(which is fine) but then I'd not be able to resist defending why I did the deal and I really don't care to keep pumping up Hill. Which I guess I'm doing again right now so I'll stop.

 

[foxco]

Thanks, that was fun and informative -- esp. around elements I never considered, like the length of time foot contact with ground during stride is maintained helping with cut vectors (potentially offsetting speed drain by creating more friction). And super fun for those kids.

I thought one of those kids was going to get pancaked . Cool video.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

Neat

that was cool...

 

[Milkman]

Tyreek triple covered not enough on the 69 yard TD tonight. 4-87-1 on 4 targets in one half. 

Stud.

 

[RushHour]

Fade him at your peril.

 

[Chaka]

Eventually people will start to believe, right?

 

[Milkman]

Oh yeah when he goes for 1400/12 this year or something insane like that. 

He's not 25 years old until next march.......

 

[LawFitz]

Tyfreak gonna streak

 

[EBF]

Eventually people will start to believe, right?

Expecting the AB dynasty owners to start sending the straight-up swap offers any day now.

Tyreek's ceiling is even higher than what he did last year when you consider how few targets he had. Give him massive targets and the roof could blow off.

 

[Faust]

Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill caught all four of his targets for 87 yards and a touchdown in Friday's preseason game versus the Falcons.

Hill played the entire first half with the Kansas City starters and was Patrick Mahomes' favorite target. Their final hook up was a 69-yard touchdown where Hill outran and Mahomes out-threw three Atlanta defenders on a pas that traveled 60-plus yards in the air. The play is a reminder of the weekly upside this duo have together as one play can change their fantasy tide at a given moment. Of Hill's 13 career touchdown receptions, 10 have come from 30-yards out or further.

Aug 17 - 10:14 PM

 

[Stuart Ullman]

Screw it. I'll reach for him in the 2nd Round. That's Randy Moss speed and Mahomes looks like Dante Culpepper to me.

Don't want that guy making plays like that for somebody else.

69 yards, 1 catch, 1 touchdown

6.9 + 1 + 6 = 13.9 points on one play

 

[Milkman]

Expecting the AB dynasty owners to start sending the straight-up swap offers any day now.

Tyreek's ceiling is even higher than what he did last year when you consider how few targets he had. Give him massive targets and the roof could blow off.

Exactly.

Favorable game scripts + Wild gunslinger QB with great deep ball accuracy + Best deep threat in the league = more targets. 

Consider this, if Tyreek gets one more deep target a game he's likely the #1 WR in FF. 

 

[Milkman]

Tyreek has caught nearly 50% of Mahomes completions. Watkins has caught 0%. 

 

[Soulfly3]

12 team PPR startup, was getting him in ALL my mocks at the 4 spot in the 2nd round.

I'm 99% sure that wont happen come draft time, and I couldn be angrier

 

[Elevencents]

Don’t have him on any of my teams and starting to regret it. Doing a best ball today and will be damned if I don’t draft him, lol. Vacillated between him and AJ Green for a solid minute yesterday and ended up going with AJ. 

 

[Milkman]

12 team PPR startup, was getting him in ALL my mocks at the 4 spot in the 2nd round.

I'm 99% sure that wont happen come draft time, and I couldn be angrier

Mahomes arm talent + Tyreek being the best deep threat in the league in a longtime could make this a special season. That throw was insane good. 

 

[King of the Jungle]

Don’t have him on any of my teams and starting to regret it. Doing a best ball today and will be damned if I don’t draft him, lol. Vacillated between him and AJ Green for a solid minute yesterday and ended up going with AJ. 

Oops.

 

[Bfrahm3]

Got him in the third (3.08) for the FBG championship and while I don’t have much at RB because went Hopkins and then Keenan just couldn’t pass on him. #6 WR last year on what 105 targets, he gets 30 more and he does probably have a very good chance at #1 overall WR. 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Expecting the AB dynasty owners to start sending the straight-up swap offers any day now.

Tyreek's ceiling is even higher than what he did last year when you consider how few targets he had. Give him massive targets and the roof could blow off.

The only negative is those targets may not go up with Watkins added to the mix. Watkins has to draw more targets than Wilson did one would think. 

Maybe the overall targets increase?

 

[DarkKnightsGuru]

The only negative is those targets may not go up with Watkins added to the mix. Watkins has to draw more targets than Wilson did one would think. 

Maybe the overall targets increase?

Better quality targets can 

 

[Milkman]

The only negative is those targets may not go up with Watkins added to the mix. Watkins has to draw more targets than Wilson did one would think. 

Maybe the overall targets increase?

A couple things to note here.

1. I don't think Watkins cares much about football. Now he got paid. He might care less. He's almost always underachieved. He hasn't done anything for 2 years basically. 

2. Mahomes and Tyreek fit perfectly together. Andy Reid knows what he has with Tyreek. He knows what he has with Mahomes. He knows KC wasn't going anywhere with Smith. Reid didn't turn to Mahomes so he could bottle him up. He's going to encourage Mahomes to unleash the DRAGON. 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Better quality targets can 

The post I responded to specifically talked about his targets increasing. Sure he may see more deep balls with Mahomes under center - but Alex Smith had an incredibly good season last year so it’s far from a given that Mahomes is better in his first season.

 

[Milkman]

The post I responded to specifically talked about his targets increasing. Sure he may see more deep balls with Mahomes under center - but Alex Smith had an incredibly good season last year so it’s far from a given that Mahomes is better in his first season.

And they let Alex Smith go why? Answer that question and you'll know what the coaches, that have had the most recent in depth look at the guy taking Smith's place think. 

#unleashingtheDRAGON

 

[Dr. Octopus]

And they let Alex Smith go why? Answer that question and you'll know what the coaches, that have had the most recent in depth look at the guy taking Smith's place think. 

#unleashingtheDRAGON

It wouldn’t be the first time a coaching staff made the mistake of shipping Smith away for some one the looks more of the part and has a better arm and more mobility.

Im not saying Mahomes will bust (I just drafted him in fact) but it’s far from a given that in his first year starting in the NFL he’s going to be better than Smith’s MVP caliber season last year. 

As some one that owns Hill, Kelce and Watkins lets hope so though.

 

[EBF]

The only negative is those targets may not go up with Watkins added to the mix. Watkins has to draw more targets than Wilson did one would think. 

Maybe the overall targets increase?

For sure. I think that's part of the eventual plan with the shift from Smith to Mahomes.

Smith wasn't a terrible QB, but he wasn't a big thrower either. Mahomes has a much higher ceiling as a passer.

They have two elite deep threats and a QB who can chuck it a mile. I think that offers some hints about where they want to go with this.

 

[sjdogs]

Initially I wanted Hill to be someone else’s gamble, the more I think about it if he plays 16 games, he should comfortably finish top 10 and likely top 5.   He’s my kind of player , a home run threat who can win match ups on a week he performs.  

Pin my ten team league I have first pick round 3 and plan to take him as the 21st player off the board as my WR 1in NoN ppr where I initially targeted Davante Adams or Thomas.

 

[JPeso]

Expecting the AB dynasty owners to start sending the straight-up swap offers any day now.

Tyreek's ceiling is even higher than what he did last year when you consider how few targets he had. Give him massive targets and the roof could blow off.

In my $2500 league the guy wanted Hill/1.5 from me for AB, and I’ve never asked him for AB. I told him I liked Hill over AB and it seemed like it was a shock. 

 

[Milkman]

In my $2500 league the guy wanted Hill/1.5 from me for AB, and I’ve never asked him for AB. I told him I liked Hill over AB and it seemed like it was a shock. 

It has begun! 

 

[LawFitz]

I'm probably in the minority (and I don't play dynasty) but I don't think I'd trade the much younger Hill for AB, even straight up, in a dynasty format. How many years of elite production do AB and Big Bum have left? Hill and Mahomies are just getting started.

 

[fruity pebbles]

I'm probably in the minority (and I don't play dynasty) but I don't think I'd trade the much younger Hill for AB, even straight up, in a dynasty format. How many years of elite production do AB and Big Bum have left? Hill and Mahomies are just getting started.

You are prolly still in the minority but its a growing minority. I’ve preferred Hill all offseason but we get some points for return yardage. 

 

[JPeso]

I'm probably in the minority (and I don't play dynasty) but I don't think I'd trade the much younger Hill for AB, even straight up, in a dynasty format. How many years of elite production do AB and Big Bum have left? Hill and Mahomies are just getting started.

To AB’s owners defense, even 1-2 years of 20+ PPG is worth quite a bit. The hope of course that he gives 16 PPG another 2 years after which could happen but is not a lock. I’ll take what I feel is Hill’s lock for 16 PPG with upside for 20 PPG with more long-term scoring and easier exit value. 

 

[Milkman]

Traded for Tyreek before the season last year after watching tape of him. 

Corey Coleman + 2nd for Tyreek + 3rd

<<<snicker>>>

 

[dahabi]

I was shopping tyreek hard this offseason...kind of glad no one bit. These included trades centered around Mixon and Derrick Henry

 

[cloppbeast]

Traded for Tyreek before the season last year after watching tape of him. 

Corey Coleman + 2nd for Tyreek + 3rd

<<<snicker>>>

You are so awesome. I don't see how you stay humble.

 

[Milkman]

You are so awesome. I don't see how you stay humble.

Hey man I traded Jordan Reed for Ladarius Green once. Stop stealing my thunder. 

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Dynasty got offered him for Mike Evans.

 

[JPeso]

Dynasty got offered him for Mike Evans.

He’s right there with Evans and Thomas in the top 5 for me. 

 

[fruity pebbles]

Gave up Mixon and a late 1st for him over the offseason

 

[RushHour]

Haha so everyone is on board now, hey? Where was this all offseason? All I heard was regression, Sammy blah blah....

 

[JackReacher]

Haha so everyone is on board now, hey? Where was this all offseason? All I heard was regression, Sammy blah blah....

70 yard teeders will do that

 

[EBF]

I've been a buyer/holder from the start. If you look at Tyreek through two years, his ADP/hype have always lagged behind his performance on the field. He wasn't given full credit for his rookie year and even after a top 8 finish last season, he's generally ranked as a WR2 in redraft and a fringe WR1/WR2 in dynasty (despite being just 24). I'm not saying he's a lock for WR1 numbers, but if you've got a guy producing on that level without being valued accordingly then there's little reason to sell. There's an argument that he's a gimmicky fluke, but there's also a compelling argument that he has latent upside beyond what we've seen so far.

If you look at the numbers last season, he finished 7th in the NFL in receiving yards despite finishing just 31st in targets. One way to look at that is to say he hit an unsustainable number of big plays and that he's due for regression. Another way to look at it is that his high per-target production reflects his unique talent and that his receiving yards/TDs will scale along with his targets. He only had 105 targets last season. Antonio Brown had 162. DeAndre Hopkins had 176. What could Hill do with that kind of opportunity? Will he ever get a chance to show it?

That's really the next question with him. Is he just an elite deep threat, a turbo-charged version of DeSean Jackson, or is he going to take the next step and become an all-around reception machine like Antonio Brown? That's where we are right now and I don't really know the answer, but a stance in the middle seems reasonable. Special talent stands out and his deep speed is something that we've never really seen before in conjunction with solid football skills. He's not Randy Moss, Julio Jones, Andre Johnson, or Calvin Johnson, but he's similar in the sense that his raw athletic talent is a constant mismatch no matter who he's up against. He's simply faster than everyone else on the field and so far no one has proven that they can solve the puzzle he presents. With the Chiefs bringing in Mahomes, a guy who is specifically known for his arm strength and deep ball, it feels like this could get very out of hand. I wouldn't go crazy and take him in the top 10, but I think the current redraft and dynasty price points offer decent value. He's ranked below his 2017 finish, yet he probably has upside to do better in 2018.

As for Watkins, he's on his third NFL team in five years. Not a good look for him. He obviously has talent, but even in his best seasons he wasn't as productive as Tyreek, and those seasons were a few years ago now. He's the opposite of Tyreek in the sense that his dynasty/redraft rankings have seemed higher than what his production alone has justified. Name recognition, draft hype, and college performance have kept his name on the marquee even though he has faltered a little bit in the last two years with injuries and inconsistency. He's going to make some plays for KC and could be a good FF WR as well, but if you locked these two in the Thunderdome and made them fight it out for the WR1 role, I don't see why you'd favor Sammy. Dumped by two teams. Injury-prone. New kid in town. He has a lot of strikes against him compared to Hill right now.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Traded for Tyreek before the season last year after watching tape of him. 

Corey Coleman + 2nd for Tyreek + 3rd

<<<snicker>>>

I got him for $1 in blind bidding dollars preseason of his rookie year. In two different leagues.

I'm way awesomer than you. 

 

[RushHour]

The one thing I’m sad about with Tyreek is they don’t give him any RB carries like they did in his rookie year. That was tasty.

 

[JPeso]

Haha so everyone is on board now, hey? Where was this all offseason? All I heard was regression, Sammy blah blah....

Can't tell who this was directed toward, but I've been comfortably on the side of Hill in every trade in the completed trade thread, for two years now. I will be the first to admit when he was blowing up it took me a few weeks to get there, but he was in my top 10 WRs going in to 2017 season and only moved up from there. The only league I do not own him in, the cost this off-season was essentially Cooks + Chubb, which I wasn't willing to pay. 

 

[RushHour]

Can't tell who this was directed toward, but I've been comfortably on the side of Hill in every trade in the completed trade thread, for two years now. I will be the first to admit when he was blowing up it took me a few weeks to get there, but he was in my top 10 WRs going in to 2017 season and only moved up from there. The only league I do not own him in, the cost this off-season was essentially Cooks + Chubb, which I wasn't willing to pay. 

Not directed at anyone in particular. 

 

[JackReacher]

I am in two FFPC leagues, and lucky to have Tyreek in both. Acquired him by trade after his rookie year in one, and took him in the late 3rd in a startup last year in the other.

Obviously I’m a believer and have been since he scored the game-winning TD against Denver in his rookie season. It was a four yard curl on the last play of the game, which solidified for me (and I thought for Reid), that Hill is more than just a one-trick pony. I posted about the play in this thread I believe.

All that said, I’m very surprised to read that he could pull AB in trade talks. I guess I could see Hill++ for true rebuilders, but AB is a different animal than the rest. He’s a target hog that shows no signs of slowing. I project four more years of WR1 for Brown.

Despite being only 24, how many WR1 years do we predict for Hill? Hard to say for sure. Mahomes is a wild card with wild upside. I have PH as well, but am cautiously optimistic at best.

I agree with those who say Hill is a hold. I would be a buyer as well, but not when we are talking AB. AJG yes. Julio maybe. Evans very tough call.

 

[matuski]

Haha so everyone is on board now, hey? Where was this all offseason? All I heard was regression, Sammy blah blah....

I'm still on the side of level/slight regression.  And nothing to do with Sammy.

I'm in as a WR2, out as my WR1.

 

[DarkKnightsGuru]

Alex Smith hardly through to Hill.. No Screen passes , hardly any rushes.. the game plan would ignore him at times for most of the game.. So things have to get better