'Ghost Rider said:
AJ is awesome when healthy, but the guy is always getting dinged up, which is why he is becoming a risky pick when you take his ADP into account. You basically draft him knowing that you will probably be without him for a few games here or a few games there, and that is not even counting a game or two he might kill you by leaving dinged up in the first quarter. And amazingly, the guy only has 52 touchdowns in 9 NFL seasons. He has never had double digits TDs in a season. Yes, he is a beast when he is healthy, especially in PPR leagues, but I am content to let someone else burn a top draft pick him nowadays.
I would take AJ at his spot over DMAC at his EVERY TIME.You have to be mindful of a few things about AJ. The numbers you posr on him have to be taken with a grain of salt. Much like DMAC, Fred Taylor, and even Fitz and Calvin to a different degree, the situation skews it greatly.
yes, he has had injuries. But he is also the guy that almost like clockwork, puts up top 1-2 numbers when he plays. He had a few injuries early in his career, but then he had three seasons where he was a man among boys. And like Fitz, he has been hampered by his team. You have to remember that some of those years he didn't put up double digit TDs were also years with David Carr who was busy putting up 60+ sacks. Megatron has had "down years" also. He was hurt his rookie year. And in 2009, he put up less than 1000 yards and 5 TDs.
These guys aren't robots. They play a collision sport and if you keep looking for automatic multiple year production, its very rare. Almost EVERY top fantasy player has an ebb and flow.