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Good 2 start pitchers vs. great 1 start pitchers? (1 Viewer)

eoMMan

Footballguy
How do you decide who to start?

I have Sale who is a must start every week no matter what. The same could be said about a couple other pitchers such as Kershaw (don't have him).

But what if you have a good pitcher with 2 starts in a weekly period and a very good, but not elite pitcher, with only 1 start with a decent matchup? How do you decide? Do you usually go with the 2 start pitcher?

 
Depends on the scoring system. But if the 2 start is a decent K pitcher or has good matchups I lean towards the 2 start guy.

 
Since you used Sale as an example, I'd never start even a good 2-start pitcher over a guy like him unless it's late in the season and I know that I need specific totals in the counting categories. But until September, I'm going with best pitcher every time. To use other examples, I'm not putting in a 2-start Jake Arrieta or Tyson Ross over a 1-start Zack Greinke

 
I can't imagine any sort of wacky league where you'd have the decision between Sale and a two-starter.

I stream a lot of two starters and try to cobble a rotation out of almost nothing, so I'm never sitting any elite-types for streamers. But matchups are important.

 
Points or categories?

Innings min/max?
Points, weekly head to head league...no min/max on innings.
I'm in a roto league that's 5x5 cat based. Curious to know how that changes perspectives. I've never done this kind of league before.
IP restriction, I assume?
no... and for the record, I'm deciding between a Fiers with two spotty matchups (cincy and Stl) or Ordizzi with one spotty matchup (boston)

No innings floors or ceilings

 
Points or categories?

Innings min/max?
Points, weekly head to head league...no min/max on innings.
In a points league, you can probably project each pitcher's points-per-start pretty easily. Some back-of-the-napkin math is probably your best bet.
I agree with this and would say at least as a starting point, you can look at the average points per start by each pitcher. Last year, the top pitcher (Kershaw) averaged 15.1 pts per game. The 29th pitcher (Cashner) averaged 7.3, so 2 starts by Cash would be worth less than Kershaw.

Matchups obviously play a part too, as does consistency and variance. Guys like Harang and Colon had low ceilings last year, but high floors, so if you were projecting for the week for them, it was pretty safe. Other guys are a lot more inconsistent.

My anecdotal experience says that something like the top 20-25 pitchers are worth starting every time over a two-start streamer, and a top-10 pitcher should always pitch.

This week I was considering Keuchel @ OAK, McHugh @ SEA, or Shoemaker vs. OAK and TEX.

I think that Keuchel is probably good for 15 points, McHugh for 12 and Shoemaker for about 16 total. But I also think that Shoemaker has the ability to get 12 points per game or more, so I am going for the upside play.

 

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