Blind bidding strategy? (1 Viewer)

Hey guys, so I'm really thinking about doing an FFPC football guys team this year. $350 is in no way small change for me but I'm excited to try! I have, however, zero experience with blind bidding for waivers. I see you $1000 for your season salary. Any advice on what kind of bids you might make make say for a guy like CJ Anderson last year? Any advice would be appreciated so I don't enter one of these and get my lunch handed to me. TIA!

Start by working backwards from the result: How much of your blind bidding budget would you have paid for CJ Anderson, if you knew what he was going to do? The answer to that is, all of it. So what you're assessing is the likelihood that the player you're bidding on will have a season like CJ Anderson's.

It's a lot better to get someone early. If you bid on CJ Anderson in weeks 1-8, you probably could have gotten him for nothing. After week 9 (13/90) you'd have to pay some decent money. After week 11 (27/167/1) you'd only get him if you had the most blind bidding money left and you bid all of it. So, player assessment, planning ahead, looking for opportunities. And then go all in when you need to.

CalBear said:

Start by working backwards from the result: How much of your blind bidding budget would you have paid for CJ Anderson, if you knew what he was going to do? The answer to that is, all of it. So what you're assessing is the likelihood that the player you're bidding on will have a season like CJ Anderson's.

It's a lot better to get someone early. If you bid on CJ Anderson in weeks 1-8, you probably could have gotten him for nothing. After week 9 (13/90) you'd have to pay some decent money. After week 11 (27/167/1) you'd only get him if you had the most blind bidding money left and you bid all of it. So, player assessment, planning ahead, looking for opportunities. And then go all in when you need to.

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Great in theory. But in the CJ Anderson case, you'd have had no chance at CJ Anderson because you'd have spent your wad on Ronnie Hillman.

Sabertooth said:

CalBear said:

Start by working backwards from the result: How much of your blind bidding budget would you have paid for CJ Anderson, if you knew what he was going to do? The answer to that is, all of it. So what you're assessing is the likelihood that the player you're bidding on will have a season like CJ Anderson's.

It's a lot better to get someone early. If you bid on CJ Anderson in weeks 1-8, you probably could have gotten him for nothing. After week 9 (13/90) you'd have to pay some decent money. After week 11 (27/167/1) you'd only get him if you had the most blind bidding money left and you bid all of it. So, player assessment, planning ahead, looking for opportunities. And then go all in when you need to.

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Great in theory. But in the CJ Anderson case, you'd have had no chance at CJ Anderson because you'd have spent your wad on Ronnie Hillman.

Click to expand...

Very possible. Do you have a useful piece of advice? Don't bid on players who are going to get injured?

Every year (depending on league size, lets say 12 team leagues with 20 man rosters) there are what, maybe 5 true impact waiver pickups, give or take a couple??

Get one of them.

Tricky part obviously is choosing correctly. You can either get CJ Anderson or Tim Hightower. But IF you get one, it's a nice advantage.

In dynasty, I generally side with youth when debating who the blow a huge amount on, obviously.

Also, don't get cute. If you REALLY want a guy, bid enough to get him, not 1 dollar above what you think you can get him for.

Kwai Chang Caine said:

Hey guys, so I'm really thinking about doing an FFPC football guys team this year. $350 is in no way small change for me but I'm excited to try! I have, however, zero experience with blind bidding for waivers. I see you $1000 for your season salary. Any advice on what kind of bids you might make make say for a guy like CJ Anderson last year? Any advice would be appreciated so I don't enter one of these and get my lunch handed to me. TIA!

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1- Make sure you understand whether the unused waiver dollars roll over to the next year (in our league they do)

2- If you are on MFL, you can access last year's history and see what was spent on whom

3- Price range on the high end correlates to positional value (breakout RB costs a lot more than a QB)

Basically, if you 'look ahead' to acquire someone, you can get them in the $1- $25 range. If there is positive press on them, the range is $25-$100. If you wait until they have a breakout game, the price goes to $500-$750.

Here were the highest-priced adds in my league last year:

Tim Wright - $675 | I personally added him at this price when the trade to the Patriots was announced, thinking he was an AHern replacement (obviously a boneheaded move)

Corey Washington - $724 | added when Cruz got hurt and Washington was receiving positive press

Brandon Oliver - $703

Denard Robinson - $650

Justin Forsett - $641

Allen Hurns - $593

Eddie Royal - $450

Mark Sanchez - $351

Austin Davis - $344

I played a handful of FPC leagues last year. My suggestion would be to be aggressive if you really want someone who is an obvious pick up and not worry too much about overpaying. It's very difficult to predict the optimal price. I saw guys in one league go for a fraction of what they went for in another.

Later on in the season you can take an educated guess based on your assessment of the needs of the other teams and their bb balance. But, it's still a guess.

JMO

Depends on the league, some drafts are 20 rounds, it reduces the chance of an impact player being available during the season. All the key rookies, sleepers are taken.

CalBear said:

Sabertooth said:

CalBear said:

Start by working backwards from the result: How much of your blind bidding budget would you have paid for CJ Anderson, if you knew what he was going to do? The answer to that is, all of it. So what you're assessing is the likelihood that the player you're bidding on will have a season like CJ Anderson's.

It's a lot better to get someone early. If you bid on CJ Anderson in weeks 1-8, you probably could have gotten him for nothing. After week 9 (13/90) you'd have to pay some decent money. After week 11 (27/167/1) you'd only get him if you had the most blind bidding money left and you bid all of it. So, player assessment, planning ahead, looking for opportunities. And then go all in when you need to.

Click to expand...

Great in theory. But in the CJ Anderson case, you'd have had no chance at CJ Anderson because you'd have spent your wad on Ronnie Hillman.

Click to expand...

Very possible. Do you have a useful piece of advice? Don't bid on players who are going to get injured?

Click to expand...

It's a lot of luck. I shoot early but miss often and find myself frustrated that I'm not able to get guys later. Going to hold my was this year.

And don't get caught up too much in a one week wonder. I dumped CJ Anderson for Brian Tyms last year.

Honestly, you just never know. Some weeks I'll bid quite a bit on a guy that I'm sure others will go in on and low and behold nobody else bids on them and I could have gotten them for a buck. Other times I feel this player is under the radar, nobody else will bid so I go low and someone else goes crazy and bids high. Part of it is knowing the other owners and what they tend to do, another is just pure luck as you can't predict what others will bid or who likes whom. But all in all as others have stated it's to try to beat everyone else to the wire a week or two ahead of when that guy is hot.

I can't give advice on what CJ went for last year as the league I have with bidding is a dynasty league and he was picked up way back in training camp (by me). Funny thing is I traded him just before he blew up, luckily I got Odell in return just before he blew up. So all in all worked out for me anyway.