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NCAA Week 6 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter BassNBrew
- Start date
NixonMask
Footballguy
The Thursday slate breakdown is up.
My thoughts:
There are only 3 quarterbacks on the slate, in order: Ward, Davis, and Kessler
Its impossible not to play Dayes
Find a way to roster Juju
Im playing 90% of my action with a cash lineup with Ward at QB and 10% in a GPP with Davis
My thoughts:
There are only 3 quarterbacks on the slate, in order: Ward, Davis, and Kessler
Its impossible not to play Dayes
Find a way to roster Juju
Im playing 90% of my action with a cash lineup with Ward at QB and 10% in a GPP with Davis
Devin Knotts
Footballguy
This slate is going to be brutal, as we have no idea about Devon Johnson and he is $5,200 on FanDuel. If you play him and he plays you win, if you don't play him and he plays you have almost no chance.
snellman
Footballguy
Sounds like this week may be a good week to sit out. I had thought about it, but the Thurs/Fri slate has been pretty good for me. May be time to take a week off though.
NixonMask
Footballguy
So youre saying theres a chance?!
Has anyone asked uncle Vito yet?
Im assuming the IVC is waiting to see if we get any kind useful of word on the situation? Aside from Johnson, do Farrow and Dayes look like the safer cash plays?
Devin Knotts
Footballguy
The IVC is up, I based the projections off of Doc Holiday's statements earlier this week regarding Devon stating that he was feeling great and should practice. Much more positive than last week of stating he's "Day to Day"
Meanwhile a little rant, what else does the sports beat writers in Huntington West Virginia have to cover? We haven't seen any news since Monday, which makes me think he is more likely to play than not play.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Devin Knotts
Footballguy
Yeah it is truly blind, I'm starting him in 100% of my GPP's on FanDuel as I think he'll be under-owned due to no late swap. I could just be burning money tonight, but the upside is there.
NixonMask
Footballguy
Ive decided to roster him. Hes so cheap that even if he doesnt play it still allows for Ward, Juju, and Ayers. I look at it as close to 100% to cash if Johnson plays and maybe 10% to cash if he doesnt.
I am playing alot higher % GPP to cash than usual though. Ive got one of each combination of Farrow/ Dayes/ and Johnson in different lineups.
Devin Knotts
Footballguy
I have him in every lineup on FD. Based on him practicing I have it at a 60% chance he plays, he is the type of player where he won't give it a go unless he's close to 100%.
There are a lot of top end guys who are too intriguing for me to pass him up.
Darreus Rogers doubtful. Any news more recent than that?
Michael Birdsong questionable.
I'm not playing Devon Johnson.
DraftKings:
QB Greg Ward Jr. 10000
QB Nick Mullens 6300
RB Xavier Jones 4100
RB Dwayne Washington 4600
WR Davonte Allen 4200
WR Demarcus Ayers 6600
WR Mike Thomas 4000
F Casey Martin 4900
F Steven Dunbar 5200
QB Greg Ward Jr. 10000
QB Nick Mullens 6300
RB Xavier Jones 4100
RB Dwayne Washington 4600
WR Davonte Allen 4200
WR Demarcus Ayers 6600
WR Mike Thomas 4000
F Casey Martin 4900
F Steven Dunbar 5200
bigshooter
Footballguy
Apparently Doc said that Johnson looked great in practice and he expects him to be out there.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Me neither.
Good news on Johnson. I used him in just over 50% of my Thur-Fri lineups. If he a Samuels have a good night I should at least break-even on the slate with a chance to do well if Martin shows up.
Devin Knotts
Footballguy
From a general game theory standpoint, starting Devon Johnson and fading Kenneth Farrow was the right move in GPP's. Obviously game theory doesn't always work out, but if I was to tell you that Farrow would only get 11 carries and have 3.6 YPC, would you start him when he was 55-60% owned? Probably not, but the thing was he found the end zone 3x which saved his night.
Now lets take Johnson, a guy who when healthy is a top 5 running back in college football. At 10% ownership, if you start him, and he goes for 140 yards and two touchdowns, at that price he separates you from the field.
Just a little game theory approach how I attack GPP's
Now lets take Johnson, a guy who when healthy is a top 5 running back in college football. At 10% ownership, if you start him, and he goes for 140 yards and two touchdowns, at that price he separates you from the field.
Just a little game theory approach how I attack GPP's
bigshooter
Footballguy
Looks to me like he's #1 on the depth chart. He's listed as questionable. I can't seem to find any injury update either. Anyone else?
bigshooter
Footballguy
Johnson is in, no idea about Birdsong yet. College Football is ridiculous.
bigshooter
Footballguy
Litton in at QB for Marshall.
NixonMask
Footballguy
Part of me is disappointed to look at Saturdays IVC and see all the plays I hoped to fly under the radar as top H-Values. I have got to ask what is going on with Rodney Smith though. Is Purdue just that bad? I know the chart has him above Canizeri, do you think hes the better play this week too?
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Devin Knotts
Footballguy
I am assuming you're talking about FanDuel where they are pretty close to being equally priced. I really like Canzeri this week and think he is a solid option.
Onto, Rodney Smith. Purdue is allowing 203 yards rushing after adjusting out the Indiana State game. This is the worst defense that Minnesota will play all season and Vegas has adjusted for this having Minnesota's O/U at 25.5. Against an Ohio team that has a better defense than Purdue he was able to put up 152 total yards. I am throwing out the Northwestern game in his projections as they have one of the best defenses in the country.
If you trust Canzeri and feel good about him I'm not going to blame you on FanDuel as I have them very close, but Smith's ability to consistently catch the ball out of the backfield has him slightly over Canzeri.
On DK Smith is one of the top plays
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Devin Knotts
Footballguy
He's ok, I think there are better plays, make sure you have Marken michel in your lineup at 5k, he's the must play of the day on FD.
Also like Villamin slightly over him.
Devin Knotts
Footballguy
Peyton Marino
Footballguy
Perry Hills getting the start today for Maryland at 4100 on DK. Thoughts?
yup got him thanks. i guess villamin and lazard are in similar situations. wr1s on teams that figure to be behind and will have to throw vs not very good pass defenses. you think villamin is safer for fd cash games? and you are not really worried about bolden cutting into villamins targets, right?
Devin Knotts
Footballguy
I wouldn't, just not worth it in a team that go with Leidner if you're looking to go very cheap, Maryland is in a very bad spot today.
Devin Knotts
Footballguy
I think you can go either way, I just like Villamin slightly more due to touchdown potential. Lazard should get slightly more targets, if your gut says go Lazard I won't blame you for it.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
I'm feeling the same way. Michel is likely going to put up 3.5 points and submarine my whole slate. Hopefully being able to upgrade to Fournette/Chubbs/etc can overcome that in a cash game.
Devin Knotts
Footballguy
Don't love many of the options less than 3.5k. For my lineup 3.8k is the lowest that I'm going in Zach Austin and very little Brandon Reilly at 3.7.
Go Torii Hunter Jr. if you have to go sub 3.5
heh yeah me too. i am the kiss of death in cfb dfs this year and im all over umass today.
Devin Knotts
Footballguy
Michel will be the highest owned player on this slate.
Good luck today everyone. Late slate should be out soon.
