******* warning: long read*********
I like to learn from past mistakes as well as things that went right, so took a look back at this draft last year....I ended up winning this league, not sure how....
(Draft Spot 16) (1 Immunity Week 4)
6.01 Tom Brady QB(9) NE
19.16 Ryan Fitzpatrick QB(32) HOU
Brady felt like serious value at the 5/6 turn and QB9 should be his floor. Brady is a red zone beast and has the best weapon in football. Fitzpatrick is still under contract in HOU and could be starter. If not sounds like some teams are interested in aquiring him. Hoping I don't pay the price for waiting on QB2, but Brady should keep me in the mix.
How it turned out:
Brady 482.40 QB2
Fitz 420.25 QB9
so Brady was Brady, but Fitz going to NYJ helped Team Ref....used Fitz 7 times...including 3 out of the lat 4 weeks....so both outplayed their draft position pretty easily and in terms of actually winning down the stretch..... Fitz may have actually been more valuable even though Brady got me there....
lesson learned: even the 19th pick of the draft can be very important in this format
3.16 Latavius Murray RB(18) OAK
4.01 Tre Mason RB(19) STL
9.16 Devonta Freeman RB(44) ATL
10.01 Christine Michael RB(45) SEA
Man I rolled the dice here. Everytime the turn came up I said to myself I need to add more here but just couldn't do it. Real big weakness here, but if Murray and Mason end up being the real deal, I could be ok if they stay healthy. At some point later in the draft, I just said screw it, I'mm gonna run with these guys. I like Freeman as an RB3 with RB1 potential depending on how things shake out. I have gone back and forth on Lynch's situation, but either way, Michael should see some PT. If Lynch retires or goes elswhere, I got some gold, otherwise this group is not real strong. I expect big things from Murray, more of the same from Mason, an arrow pointing up for Freeman and either a wasted pick or a top 5 back in Michael.
How it turned out:
Murray 206.80 RB10
Mason 53.50 RB77
Freeman 320.40 RB1
Michael 28.90 RB102
I never once used Michael and I used used Mason twice (once when Freeman was on bye and the other time when Freeman was hurt)....3 of these guys shared the same bye week and luckily Freeman went off for 35+ that week....Murray stayed healthy and outperformed his draft spot.....god what I could have done with that 4th round pick of Mason....but obviously Freeman did the heavy lifting finishing as RB1 after being drafted as RB44 in the 9th....would like to say I saw that coming but total luck although I did say RB starter type numbers depending on how it shook out.....turns out it shook out ok...my 9-10 was Freeman/Michael....what a difference in ONE draft spot.....
lesson learned: luck helps....and you can win this thing with bare bones if they stay healthy....ok to roll dice on certain situations (Freeman with SJax in decline) and it can pay off, but not something I would hang my hat on all the time....
1.16 Calvin Johnson WR(7) DET
2.01 A.J. Green WR(8) CIN
7.15 Davante Adams WR(45) GB
8.01 Percy Harvin WR(46) NYJ
11.16 Justin Blackmon WR(64) JAC
12.01 Cody Latimer WR(65) DEN
17.16 Cole Beasley WR(84) DAL
With two solid guys at the top I swung for the fences on pretty much every other pick other than Beasley (who I was happy to add late). Cobb or no Cobb Adams could be a solid pick and outperform WR45. Harvin a decent pick in best ball and I think he has a better year than last year. Blackmon could put this group over the top and again with CJ and Green on board he is worth the risk that late. Julius Thomas and Welker should both be gone opening the door for Latamer and he could be a steal. Beasley seems to have carved out that Welkian, Edelman, Hartlinian type of receiver role and adds some week to week stability to the risk of the guys above him. I might need some monster weeks here to cover my RB's.
How it turned out:
Johnson 263.40 WR12
Green 275.70 WR8
Adams 104.30 WR68
Harvin 49.90 WR109
Blackmon 0
Latimer 18.0 WR156
Beasley 135.60 WR50
used Green every week, CJ 13, Adams 8, Beasley 7, Harvin 3, Latimer 1 (the week he scored his only TD and one of his 6 catches on the year).....doughnut from Blackmon didn't cost me, nor did Latimer, but what a terrible 11-12 turn that was.....what I thought was a strength with this group almost turned into a liability as I really missed on all my swings for the fences....Green was steady enough and Beasley and Adams kind of ham an egged a WR3 score....so really I only had 4 guys here most of the year....in week 6 I only posted 2 WR's scores and in week 7 I only posted 1 WR score (19 from CJ)....as it turned out my RB's helped carry my WR's instead of vice versa....Beasley only player to outperform his draft position in this group....
lesson learned: what may seem like a perceived weakness at time could end up being a strength and vice versa.....and you can survive brutal weeks and zeros at a position on occasion....and I should have let Bass have Harvin....
5.16 Jordan Reed TE(11) WAS
16.01 Richard Rodgers TE(30) GB
20.01 Owen Daniels TE(37) FA
Decided to add TE3 instead of RB5 at the last turn when I saw Daniels still available. There was some discussion about Pitta and Daniels in one of the threads and I intentionally did not comment on Daniels while chiming in a little on Pitta. I was targeting Daniels late, but never thought I would be able to get him in the last round. I think Pitta is done, but I took Daniels more on a feeling that I think there is a real good chance he ends up in DEN. I think Daniels actually has some bargaining power here as BAL would probably love to bring him back with or without Pitta (insurance), but with Julius Thomas probably leaving DEN, there will be a need for a pass ctaching TE in a Peyton Manning offense. Think I saw somewhere that Daniels has always been on a team with Kubiak. Whoever the TE in DEN ends up being, will put up some fantasy points. Quite honestly, IMO there may be a better chance that Daniels is in DEN than there is they resign Julius. Julius will want too much money. Anyway, I rolled the dice that in a 2 PPR TE league, what Daniels may add to this team week to week will be more than an RB5 for me. Reed and Rodgers were a decent combo, but some question marks.
How it turned out:
Reed 335.20 TE2
Rodgers 216.10 TE11
Daniels 161.70 TE22
All these guys outplayed their draft position pretty significantly.....only used Daniels twice, and Rodgers 5 times, so Reed carried the load and really may have my "best pick of the draft" because the feeman pick and even Fitzpatrick were not really something you saw coming, but I did kind of hang my hat on Reed in the 5th and not backing him up until the 16th round....he made up some ground for me on the field each week......
lesson learned: I probably could have survived without Daniels so RB5 may have been the way to go.....as it turns out, while Rodgers only scored for me 5 times, as TE11, at least he wasn't scoring each week for somebody else....TE's with good/great QB's are worth a sniff......hitting on a TE that kind of breaks out can be a huge deal in these leagues....
14.01 Dan Bailey PK(3) DAL
15.16 Nick Folk PK(23) NYJ
Huge Bailey fan, thought about riding solo, but didn't think this team could afford any automatic donuts. Folk always seems to outperform his draft position.
How it turned out:
Bailey 115.00 PK12
Folk 58.00 PK 33
used Folk 4 out of the 8 weeks he played before losing him for the year....Bailey did just enough to keep me above water....no real lesson here....hmmmmmmm
13.16 Detroit Lions DST(14)
18.01 New Orleans Saints DST (30)
Love DET DST, looks like they really want Suh back. Two dome teams, some noise......meh.
How it turned out:
DET 103.00 DST20
NOS 94.00 DST27
while DET outscored NOS I actually used NOS 11 times in 17 weeks.....only 6 times did I get more than 10 points from my DST with the highest being 19 one week.....hmmmmmm
lesson learned: can really maybe wait here
Overall: Need Brady to have a big year and for the cards to fall right at RB. WR should be solid, but I probably could have afforded to lose a body in the middle of the draft here if it would have meant adding another RB who could have at least contributed a little. However, if that RB group shakes out in my favor, the dice roll could pay off in a big way. If I can get Murray and Mason to make a leap and both out play their 18/19 draft spot I could be on to something. Not my best effort here, but it could be worse.
How it turned out (Overall):
Chicken Dinner.....some how.....QB situation/timing worked in my favor, especially down the stretch.....Freeman and Reed did the heavy lifting and not sure about the official numbers but I would assume Freeman was SOD and MVP in terms of outplaying draft position....was able to win with basically 2 RB's, 2.5 WR's, 1.5 TE's, 1 PK and almost nothing at DST, while the timing of the QB's played out right.....I didn't look back and see where I barely made the cut each week (I'm sure there may have been several times), so while the Mason's, Latimer's, Harvin's, Daniels, Folk's, and DST's of the world may not have shown any impact in the final numbers, even their little contributions may have saved my bacon in there somewhere....
2 top 10 QB's, 2 top 10 RB's, 2 top 12 WR's, 2 top 11 TE's......and not much else.....might have been more of a ham and egg dinner than chicken......
apologies for a long boring read, but each year, no matter what league I am in, I usually try to take a look back and see where I hit and missed....good luck this year