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ZWK

Member Since 14 Jul 2008
Online Last Active Today, 08:48 PM
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In Topic: 10 Current Players Who Are HOF Locks

Today, 03:06 PM

 

 

Pro Bowls don't mean nearly as much now since so many players skip it. When those guys skip it, other guys get qualified as Pro Bowlers to replace them. So there's like a 15-20% inflation of number of Pro Bowlers which devalues the whole thing.

Pro Bowls have been watered down and the same with stats like a 1,000 yard rusher now with 16 game schedules as apposed to when teams only played 12 game seasons like a Jim Brown when he left the game lapped every single player by thousands of yards and dozens of TDs, oh and Brown never missed a game in his career.
 
Joe Thomas doesn't play a position where he can ring up cheap POS stats just because.  He plays a position where guys come in and look like the next Anthony Munoz but they flame out.  See Jake Long or Matt Kahlill, or Jason Smith, or Levi Brown, or D'Brickshaw Ferguson, or a Robert Gallery, or a ....
 
Considering that Joe Thomas didn't just start hot but has consistently performed better than ANYONE at his position during his career and has never missed a single snap in his career and he has made ALL-PRO status in his career meaning he was voted as the best at this position by his peers means he isn't just some guy who put up cheap stats or was some flashy guy who everyone remembers one play.  He is the meat and potatoes that the game relies on and he gets overlooked and that is why this list has no other offensive linemen.  They get overlooked unless they make a mistake. 
 
Name another offensive lineman who has been as consistently good and durable over the last decade?  Over the last two decades?  Three? 
 
That legacy is why Joe Thomas is going to the HOF.

I completely agree with all of this. The All-Pro selections on their own will get him in and deservidly so.

 

Good point about the Pro Bowl inflation, GroveDiesel. I had thought that PFR only credited players who were originally selected to the Pro Bowl, and not the injury replacements, but I was wrong. PB+AP would make a better career summary stat if it only included voted-in Pro Bowls.

 

If we just look at All-Pros, here is a complete list of all the players who 1) retired before 2010, 2) aren't in the Hall, and 3) have 4+ All-Pros since 1970:

 

AP Player

5 Zach Thomas

4 LeRoy Butler

 

That is all.

 

Joe Thomas, Kevin Williams, and Patrick Willis are all sitting with 5. Jahri Evans, Revis, Polamalu, and Ware all have 4.


In Topic: A little dynasty TE discussion...

Today, 12:50 AM

Looking at Indy: Fleener seems pretty underrated right now - TE20 in the FBG staff rankings, and late teens in various other rankings. (Allen is underrated too in a lot of places, though not by the FBG staff who have him at TE12).

 

Having Luck as your QB is great, but the concern with Allen & Fleener has always been that they'd cancel each other out. Fleener did manage to finish as TE7ish last year, even with Allen playing 12 games, but that is still a pretty reasonable concern (especially for this year, with the upgrades to their WR corps).

 

But Fleener and Allen are both going into the last year of their contracts, and I'd bet that the most likely outcome a year from now is that one of them re-signs in Indy and the other goes elsewhere. Allen as the only good TE on an Andrew Luck offense? Yes, please. Fleener as the only good TE on an Andrew Luck offense? Same. A solid TE who is a major red zone threat in an elite passing offense, with a good shot at Julius Thomas / Dallas Clark production.

 

For folks that have Fleener ranked in the late teens or worse, I have 4 questions:

 

1. Where would you rank him if you knew for sure that he would re-sign with the Colts next year and Allen would leave?

2. Where would you rank him if you knew for sure that he would leave Indy after this season?

3. Where would you rank him if you knew for sure that he & Allen would both re-sign with the Colts next year?

4. How likely do you consider each of these 3 scenarios?

 

(My answers: TE8, TE19, TE19, 30-50-20.)


In Topic: 10 Current Players Who Are HOF Locks

Yesterday, 08:48 PM

Here are all the players with at least 7 Pro Bowls + All-Pros who played in 2014 (excluding special teamers):

 

[...]

 

As a first pass, I'd be tempted to say that 10 PB+AP (Brees on up) makes you a lock, and 8 PB+AP (Allen through Briggs) gives you a good shot at the Hall.

For comparison, here is everyone since 1970 who has at least 7 Pro Bowls + All-Pros, is Hall-eligible, and is not in the Hall:

 

PB  AP  Player

7    5    Zach Thomas
8    3    Marvin Harrison
8    3    Kevin Mawae
9    2    John Lynch
7    3    Morten Andersen
7    3    Orlando Pace
8    2    Steve Atwater
8    2    Steve Wisniewski
6    3    Mike Alstott
6    3    Joey Browner
6    3    Deron Cherry
6    3    Cliff Harris
6    3    Karl Mecklenburg
7    2    Robert Brazile
7    2    Randy Gradishar
7    2    Jay Hilgenberg
7    2    Richmond Webb
8    1    Lemar Parrish
8    1    George Kunz
9    0    Ruben Brown
4    4    LeRoy Butler
5    3    Tony Boselli
5    3    Kenny Easley
5    3    Mark Gastineau
5    3    Keith Jackson
5    3    Greg Lloyd
5    3    Marvin Powell
5    3    Sterling Sharpe
5    3    Donnie Shell
5    3    Darren Woodson
6    2    L.C. Greenwood
6    2    Nate Newton
6    2    Michael Dean Perry
6    2    Isiah Robertson
7    1    Lomas Brown
7    1    Chris Hinton
7    1    Torry Holt
4    3    Willie Anderson
4    3    Cliff Branch
4    3    Nolan Cromwell
4    3    Leon Gray
4    3    Mel Gray
4    3    Herman Moore
4    3    Rick Upchurch
5    2    Todd Christensen
5    2    Ben Coates
5    2    Kevin Greene
5    2    Mike Kenn
5    2    Ty Law
5    2    Tom Nalen
5    2    Hardy Nickerson
5    2    Mike Quick
5    2    Jake Scott
5    2    Pat Swilling
5    2    Louis Wright
6    1    Eric Allen
6    1    Matt Blair
6    1    La'Roi Glover
6    1    Dennis Harrah
6    1    Bob Kuechenberg
6    1    Neil Smith
7    0    Steve Tasker
 

Only 8 guys with 10 or more PB+AP are not in the Hall yet, and I figure at least half of those 8 will make it in eventually (they are mostly recent retirees).


In Topic: 10 Current Players Who Are HOF Locks

Yesterday, 03:25 PM

 

Here are all the players with at least 7 Pro Bowls + All-Pros who played in 2014 (excluding special teamers):

 

...

 

As a first pass, I'd be tempted to say that 10 PB+AP (Brees on up) makes you a lock, and 8 PB+AP (Allen through Briggs) gives you a good shot at the Hall.

 

So you think all of these players are locks if they never play another down?

 

Joe Thomas
DeMarcus Ware
Jason Witten
Kevin Williams
Julius Peppers
Jahri Evans
Darrelle Revis
Dwight Freeney
 
I disagree on pretty much all of them. Thomas and Revis would be interesting cases, but the rest have more work to do IMO.
 
I don't think combining All Pros and Pro Bowls is a good method, since it obviously double counts (almost?) all All Pro seasons.

 

"Lock" is an overstatement, but I do think that Thomas, Ware, Williams, Peppers, and Revis should (and will) be in. Less sure about Witten (though he probably will be in), Evans, and Freeney.

 

Being arguably the best player in the NFL at your position is significantly more impressive than just being top 5ish, for a player's HoF case, so I think it's correct to count a season where a player makes first team All Pro as twice as impressive as a season where they only make the Pro Bowl.


In Topic: 10 Current Players Who Are HOF Locks

Yesterday, 01:56 PM

Here are all the players with at least 7 Pro Bowls + All-Pros who played in 2014 (excluding special teamers):

 

PB  AP  Player

14    7    Peyton Manning
8    5    Joe Thomas
7    5    Patrick Willis
8    4    Troy Polamalu
8    4    DeMarcus Ware
10    2    Tom Brady
10    2    Jason Witten
6    5    Kevin Williams
8    3    Antonio Gates
8    3    Julius Peppers
8    3    Charles Woodson
6    4    Jahri Evans
6    4    Darrelle Revis
7    3    Dwight Freeney
9    1    Drew Brees
5    4    Jared Allen
6    3    Adrian Peterson
7    2    Andre Johnson
7    2    Jason Peters
8    1    Larry Fitzgerald
5    3    Calvin Johnson
6    2    Nick Mangold
7    1    Lance Briggs
4    3    Ndamukong Suh
4    3    Earl Thomas
5    2    John Abraham
5    2    James Harrison
5    2    Haloti Ngata
5    2    Steve Smith
5    2    Wes Welker
6    1    Logan Mankins
6    1    Terrell Suggs
6    1    Reggie Wayne
 

As a first pass, I'd be tempted to say that 10 PB+AP (Brees on up) makes you a lock, and 8 PB+AP (Allen through Briggs) gives you a good shot at the Hall.