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ZWK

Member Since 14 Jul 2008
Offline Last Active Feb 11 2016 08:28 AM
*****

Posts I've Made

In Topic: Is Calvin Johnson a HOFer?

11 February 2016 - 08:30 AM

Voted no. Maybe because Im a bitter Lions fan, but he has never won a playoff game, and only had what a 3 year stretch where he was the best? One hell of a talent, but the resume says no. 

 

Clearly, Calvin should've done more in that wild card game in New Orleans which the Lions lost 45-28. He only managed 211 yards and 2 TDs on his 15 targets.


In Topic: 2015 Anarchy League League Leaders Thread

10 February 2016 - 10:58 PM

Thanks for running these, David. Thanks also to Delanie and Jordan for being top 4 TEs available in rounds 5+.

 

I ended up with my first Anarchy league title (in 7 tries), the top team across the leagues, and the #3 spot on the all-time list.

 

David's league 1 team slots in at #7 all-time, and pontus in league 7 comes in at #22.


In Topic: Is Calvin Johnson a HOFer?

10 February 2016 - 10:31 PM

I think he has a good case for being one of the top 5 WRs in NFL history (after Rice, Hutson, Moss, and Owens). Calvin in his prime is up there with pretty much any other WR in his prime.

 

Calvin's peak was 3 years, but let's look at a slightly longer period: ages 25-30 (typical prime years for a WR). During that 6-season span, Calvin had 8548 receiving yards which is the most ever in NFL history at those ages. He had 62 receiving touchdowns, which is the 5th most in NFL history (behind Rice, Moss, Owens, and Harrison). He had 9.17 yards per target, which is the 6th best since 1992 (when targets became available as a stat) among the 50 receivers with at least 5000 receiving yards during that age range (behind Jordy Nelson, Vincent Jackson, Antonio Brown, Isaac Bruce, and Reggie Wayne - you might notice some patterns in those players' roles and quarterbacks).

 

Calvin's prime didn't last as long as (for example) new Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison's - Calvin had seven 1000-yard seasons to Harrison's nine - but I don't think that smallish difference in length should keep Calvin out.


In Topic: ZWK's 2016 Prospect Analysis

09 February 2016 - 12:24 AM

Brief updates:

 

Weigh-ins at the Senior Bowl, Shrine Game, and NFLPA Collegiate Bowl were mostly as expected, so no big changes with that information. Biggest mover was USM's Mike Thomas, who measured in at a bigger-than-expected 6'1" 197 - that moves him up in my ratings, although not by enough to pass anyone in the rankings. I'm currently not doing anything with the hand & arm size measurements, but maybe I should. Last offseason I looked at correlations and found that receivers with smaller hands dropped more passes in the NFL. Players with longer arms also had more drops, but they had higher YPT too.

 

I've watched some more of Aaron Green and he continues to look unimpressive. Tends not to get much more than what's blocked. I watched Alex Collins against Toledo and it was the worst game of his that I've seen - I didn't spot a single play where he got more than 5 yards after the initial tackling opportunity. Paul Perkins & Jordan Howard are the 2 guys who I would most like to see some more game tape of.


In Topic: ZWK's 2016 Prospect Analysis

05 February 2016 - 08:56 PM

I think my system isn't that great at picking out the Sproles/Woodhead/Riddick/NE type of RB who gains more yards through the air than on the ground. They're pretty rare, and they were even rarer a couple years ago when I set up this system. Plus, I have been treating 0 or 0.5 PPR as the default scoring system.

 

Compared to other RB roles, I guess weight is less important for this sort of RB, agility is more important (3 cone & short shuttle), success as kick/punt returners is more important, elusiveness in space is more important, elusiveness in traffic is less important, and obviously receiving production is more important and rushing production is less important. The team he ends up on, and the things the coaches say about his role, are also more important (since there are only a few teams that make heavy use of this sort of RB - even Sproles himself hasn't had much fantasy value outside of New Orleans).

 

Ervin's TDs in the return game are a positive indicator, but his lack of big plays as a receiver are a negative indicator. I haven't watched him play yet, so I don't have strong opinions.