Matt Waldman's RSP Boiler Room on Michael Thomas, WR, Ohio State University.
My favorite WR in the draft.
Is there a good explanation for Thomas's lack of production this year? He is averaging only 60 yards per game and 8.4 yards per target, both of which are pretty mediocre. And this is on a team whose quarterbacks are being talked up as NFL prospects. I know that tOSU doesn't pass a lot, but that doesn't explain his low YPT (and his 2.4 yards per team pass attempt is also not that good).
The Buckeyes are passing for less than 200 yards per game. The passing offense just hasn't been able to get in rhythm for a lot of reasons. Musical chairs at quarterback. Poor play by both quarterbacks. A new RT who can't pass block. A new OC who has struggled. A strangely high number of games played in terrible weather conditions.
So if you're looking at efficiency numbers, they are going to be pretty poor across the board for all the pieces of this pass offense.
I do think the poor numbers are going to make Thomas a very divisive prospect this winter/spring and it'll be interesting to see all of the pro/con arguments. Personally, I like him a lot. He has great hands, runs good routes, wins contested balls, great body control. But I want to see a solid 4.5ish 40 before getting too excited as speed is my main concern with him.
His team-adjusted stats aren't very special either. Looking at market share, he has accounted for:
31% of his team's receiving yards (average is 29% among the top 100 players in receiving yards)
47% of his team's receiving TDs (average is 30% among the top 100 players in receiving yards)
16% of his team's total TDs (average is 15%)
26% of his team's 25+ yard receptions (average is 33%)
14% of his team's 40+ yard receptions (average is 34%)
And his team averages 1.03 yards per attempt more when throwing to him than when throwing elsewhere (average is +1.15).
The only place where he stands out above a generic "his team's top WR" is with touchdowns.