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ZWK

Member Since 14 Jul 2008
Offline Last Active Today, 01:59 PM
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Posts I've Made

In Topic: ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (updated May 2015)

Today, 03:36 AM

 

I think you're too low on Hill. Preseason will give us a better idea though.

There are more Zach Sudfelds than Julius Thomases. I wouldn't want to put Josh Hill ahead of someone like Fleener who has similar athleticism, a similarly great QB (but much younger), and was already a top 8 fantasy TE last year.

 

Actually, I'm probably underrating Fleener.

 

 

Actually, I think I was underrating Fleener by a lot.

 

If I knew for a fact that Indy was going to re-sign Fleener long-term and let Allen go after this year, then I'd put Fleener on tier 5, with Cameron, Reed, Green, etc. Probably even at the top of that tier. Luck's TE, relatively tall & athletic, early 2nd rounder, with a 51/774/8 season in his 3rd year. Red zone threat on a team that scores a lot and apparently has a thing for tiny WRs.

 

If I knew that Fleener would leave Indy and sign elsewhere next year, then I think I'd have him on tier 7, near where he is now. In terms of talent, I think he's more like Rudolph than like Donnell or Housler. And I think I'd also have him on tier 7 if I knew that Fleener and Allen would both re-sign in Indy.

 

Combine those 3 scenarios, with appropriate weightings, and Fleener pretty clearly belongs a tier higher. Let's say Allen at 13 (with a slight increase in value based on similar reasoning), Fleener at 14, and Amaro down to 15.


In Topic: ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (updated May 2015)

Yesterday, 04:14 PM

I think you're too low on Hill. Preseason will give us a better idea though.

There are more Zach Sudfelds than Julius Thomases. I wouldn't want to put Josh Hill ahead of someone like Fleener who has similar athleticism, a similarly great QB (but much younger), and was already a top 8 fantasy TE last year.

 

Actually, I'm probably underrating Fleener.


In Topic: ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (updated May 2015)

22 May 2015 - 04:34 PM

I'm pretty comfortable saying that ASJ ranking will be adjusted significantly after a few months.

His play as a rookie didn't make me optimistic: 5.8 yards per target and 0.93 yards per route run are not good numbers. But I still have him rated right about where I did a year ago, because TE development usually takes time and his coaching staff does seem optimistic.


In Topic: ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (updated May 2015)

22 May 2015 - 04:08 PM

TE rankings. Assuming 0.5 PPR (unlike my previous TE rankings, which were no PPR), 12 starting RBs, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/15. Prev shows my rankings from last August, and I also posted my (partially ordered) top 12 in January.

 

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    Rob Gronkowski    NE    26.3    (2)
2    2    Jimmy Graham    SEA    28.8    (1)
3    3    Travis Kelce    KC    25.9    (20)
4    4    Zach Ertz    PHI    24.8    (6)
4    5    Eric Ebron    DET    22.4    (5)
4    6    Tyler Eifert    CIN    25.0    (9)
4    7    Greg Olsen    CAR    30.5    (10)
5    8    Jordan Cameron    MIA    27.1    (4)
5    9    Julius Thomas    JAX    27.2    (3)
5    10    Jordan Reed    WAS    25.2    (7)
5    11    Martellus Bennett    CHI    28.5    (16)
5    12    Ladarius Green    SD    25.3    (8)
6    13    Jace Amaro    NYJ    23.2    (17)
6    14    Dwayne Allen    IND    25.5    (18)
6    15    Austin Seferian-Jenkins    TB    22.9    (19)
6    16    Charles Clay    BUF    26.5    (13)
7    17    Maxx Williams    BAL    21.4    unr
7    18    Kyle Rudolph    MIN    25.8    (12)
7    19    Coby Fleener    IND    26.9    (21)
7    20    Josh Hill    NO    25.3    unr
7    21    Delanie Walker    TEN    31.1    (34)
7    22    Antonio Gates    SD    35.2    (28)
7    23    Jason Witten    DAL    33.3    (15)
8    24    Larry Donnell    NYG    26.8    unr
8    25    Richard Rodgers    GB    23.6    (22)
8    26    Owen Daniels    DEN    32.8    (55)
8    27    Robert Housler    CLE    27.5    (30)
8    28    Gavin Escobar    DAL    24.6    (33)
8    29    Niles Paul    WAS    26.1    unr
8    30    Virgil Green    DEN    27.1    unr
8    31    Heath Miller    PIT    32.9    (23)
9    32    Clive Walford    OAK    23.9    unr
9    33    Vernon Davis    SF    31.6    (14)
9    34    Dennis Pitta    BAL    30.2    (11)
9    35    C.J. Fiedorowicz    HOU    23.9    (25)
9    36    Jared Cook    STL    28.4    (27)
9    37    Jacob Tamme    ATL    31.5    (70)
9    38    Fred Davis    NE    29.6    (58)
9    39    Mychal Rivera    OAK    25.0    (38)
9    40    Troy Niklas    ARI    23.0    (35)
10    41    Tim Wright    NE    25.4    (26)
10    42    Andrew Quarless    GB    26.9    (52)
10    43    MyCole Pruitt    MIN    23.4    unr
10    44    Demetrius Harris    KC    24.1    (29)
10    45    Luke Willson    SEA    25.6    (24)
10    46    Jeff Heuerman    DEN    22.8    unr
10    47    Tyler Kroft    CIN    22.9    unr
10    48    Garrett Graham    HOU    29.1    (47)
10    49    Vance McDonald    SF    25.2    (42)
 

Brief commentary: Gronk smash. Bad news in free agency for Graham & J  Thomas. Kelce & Ertz were very effective as part-time TEs and have lots of upside if they can get more snaps & keep that up. Ebron & Eifert have the draft pedigree, and TEs do sometimes take awhile to produce. Everyone on tier 5 (Cameron through Green) carries a fair amount of risk. Allen & Fleener might finally be separated after this season. Maxx Williams's draft spot (pick 55) would've made him the 5th TE drafted in 2014 - he's a meh athlete, but he did wind up in a nice landing spot. Rob Housler, Jacob Tamme, and Fred Davis get another chance with pretty good landing spots as well. Heuerman's injury costs him a chance at a year with Manning.


In Topic: Odds That Both Mariota and Winston Are Busts?

22 May 2015 - 01:46 PM

Around a 15-20% chance that both bust, depending on the definition of "bust". (More like 10% if you count Sanchez & Alex Smith as non-busts.)

 

I'm figuring that each of them has about a 40-45% chance of busting (based on the track record of top 5 picks), and that they're independent.