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Member Since 14 Jul 2008
Offline Last Active Today, 04:01 AM

Posts I've Made

In Topic: RB Prospect Elusiveness Rankings

25 February 2015 - 01:39 PM



My current Hard To Tackle Ratings for the 2015 draft class:


7.47    Jay Ajayi
7.35    Tevin Coleman
7.28    Ameer Abdullah
7.26    David Cobb
7.20    Melvin Gordon
7.13    Cameron Artis-Payne
7.04    Karlos Williams
7.01    Todd Gurley
6.82    Duke Johnson
6.80    David Johnson
6.62    Mike Davis
6.47    T.J. Yeldon
6.19    Jeremy Langford
5.53    Javorius Allen

Generally good, and pretty tightly packed. Down on Buck Allen, and to a lesser extent Langford & Yeldon. It's possible that there has been a slight change to my standards for what counts as "traffic" vs. "space", which would make these numbers slightly inflated relative to last year.


I've been sharing these numbers (along with more fine-grained breakdowns) in this spreadsheet, which I update whenever I track more games. And I've been discussing this year's prospects in more depth in this thread.

In Topic: ZWK's 2015 Prospect Analysis

23 February 2015 - 01:58 AM

This year's TE class looks pretty awful. Just looking at size/athleticism from the combine, there were 7 TEs in last year's class who were better than anyone in this class. Maxx Williams measured below average for a combine TE at height, weight, BMI, 40 time, short shuttle, and bench, and just slightly above average at broad & vertical.


One small school guy who might be worth keeping an eye on is Mycole Pruitt, an undersized move TE who led Southern Illinois in receiving (with an 81/861/13 statline) and ran a 4.58 40.

In Topic: ZWK's 2015 Prospect Analysis

23 February 2015 - 12:57 AM

Any thoughts on Tre McBride? 


I don't have strong opinions about McBride, since he's non-FBS, but on the whole I'm not that impressed. I watch game cutups of RBs and can form some impressions of them based on what I see, but I don't do that with WRs. And WR success depends more on college performance and less on combine numbers, compared to RB success, so his lack of a track record against legit competition makes him hard for me to evaluate (moreso than for guys like David Johnson or Terrance West).


At first glance, his college stats don't even look that great - he doesn't seem to have dominated the Colonial Athletic Association the way that I'd expect an NFL caliber WR to do against that level of competition. Pierre Garcon put up 67/1212/17 in his best season at Mount Union; McBride topped out at 55/897/10 at William & Mary.

In Topic: ZWK's 2015 Prospect Analysis

22 February 2015 - 11:32 PM

And here are the RBs, post-combine (with guys staying in school included, and this draft class in bold): 


Nick Chubb    Georgia    FR 
Melvin Gordon    Wisconsin    JR 
Ameer Abdullah    Nebraska    SR 
Todd Gurley    Georgia    JR 

Jay Ajayi    Boise St    JR 
Ezekiel Elliott    Ohio State    SO 
Samaje Perine    Oklahoma    FR 
Duke Johnson    Miami (Fl)    JR 
Tevin Coleman    Indiana    JR 
Byron Marshall    Oregon    JR 
David Cobb    Minnesota    SR 
Elijah McGuire    La-Lafytte    SO 
Royce Freeman    Oregon    FR 
Karlos Williams    FSU    SR 
Cameron Artis-Payne    Auburn    SR 
Kenneth Dixon    La Tech    JR 
Jonathan Williams    Arkansas    JR 
Alex Collins    Arkansas    SO 
Shock Linwood    Baylor    SO 
Derrick Henry    Alabama    SO 
D.J. Foster    Ariz St    JR 
Leonard Fournette    LSU    FR 
Josh Robinson    Miss St    JR 
Jeremy Langford    Mich St    SR 

Kareem Hunt    Toledo    SO 
T.J. Yeldon    Alabama    JR 
Mike Davis    S Carolina    JR 
Corey Grant    Auburn    SR 

Devon Johnson    Marshall    JR 
Noah Copeland    Navy    SR 

I've kept the tiering in-line with my previous post, although there is actually a pretty steady dropoff from Chubb to Perine rather than a couple of big jumps. I don't have David Johnson in there because he was non-FBS, but his combine would be enough to put him up near Duke Johnson.


Short version: no big-time studs, 4 RBs who have some flaws but are worth getting excited about (Gordon, Abdullah, Gurley, Ajayi), 6 RBs who might be worth something (the Johnsons through Artis-Payne), and everyone else would be a stretch.


Three main risers: Abdullah weighed in bigger than expected and blew up the combine, except for his 40. Gordon also weighed in bigger than expected, matched his projected 40, and did pretty well at the rest of the combine. Ajayi was also solid in the non-40 drills, and just slightly slower than expected. And actually David Johnson had a better combine than any of them, with numbers almost as good as Abdullah in the non-40 drills, while also being significantly bigger and running a faster 40.


Two big fallers: Duke Johnson & Josh Robinson. Duke Johnson's combine was pretty mediocre - his alleged speed did not show up on the track. Robinson's was horrible - an optimistic forecast for him at this point is Saints UDFA. TJ Yeldon & Mike Davis also slid down the rankings, with pretty bad 40 times and mediocre numbers in the other drills.

In Topic: Dynasty: Chris Conley, University of Georgia

22 February 2015 - 09:17 PM

Conley's an interesting prospect - he was a deep threat on a team that rarely threw deep. Very good per-target numbers - 12.0 yards per target - but not a lot of targets. Georgia only had 5 40+ yard completions this year, and 3 of them went to Conley. As a fraction of his team's passing production, his numbers were just slightly behind Dorsett's in Miami.