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Edelman -- Welker cuff. He definitely showed he's got a future at WR this year. To be fantasy relevant anytime soon, who knows.I think he's much like a backup RB. Much more valuable to the Welker owner than anyone else.
I'm not arguing your main point, but Hilliard went 3 for 12 and a TD on the ground and had 9 catches for 74 yards and TD. That's 29.6 points in a PPR league. Where are you getting your stats?It's definitely vindication for me, because one of my four points was that Williams could get hurt. When you're counting on an RB for 3 games, and he misses one of those, he just lost 33% of his total remaining lifetime value in one second. A rolled ankle or a tweaked hamstring or a major cramp suddenly becomes as devastating to Ricky's value as it would be for an RB with 6 years left in him to suffer not one but TWO major season-ending injuries in week 1 games. Also, for the record, I don't know what you mean when you say that Hilliard had about 20 points in his absence. Lex Hilliard had 3 carries for 12 yards today. Lousaka Polite had another 2 carries for 3 yards. Neither chipped in a reception. Even if you add in Hilliard's TD, that's a grand total of 7.5 fantasy points posted by RBs other than Ricky Williams, a pretty far cry from "about 20 points in his absence".He got hurt, bro. This is not vindication for you. Lex Hilliard had about 20 points in his absence. If you traded Greene for Kevin Smith, you'd probably be moreright now
I was hoping to snag him in the 1st next year in our keep 4 league but that ain't happening now.
12 yards rushing74 yards receiving2 touchdowns20.6 points in most leagues...
Yep, plus 9 pts for receptions in PPR. SSOG usually brings it but that paragraph makes no sense to me. Why wouldn't you count the TD? Plus he missed all the receiving stats. Weird.
SSOG, usually solid in his analysis also conveniently left out the fact that if you snagged Ricky for your playoffs (typically weeks 14 & 15) - he had the exact type of production you were paying for in that time span - with 16+ fantasy points in each game in standard scoring leagues.
If your league (like most) pays a decent chunk to 2nd place, you probably at least got that $ for Ricky.
SSOG, usually solid in his analysis also conveniently left out the fact that if you snagged Ricky for your playoffs (typically weeks 14 & 15) - he had the exact type of production you were paying for in that time span - with 16+ fantasy points in each game in standard scoring leagues.If your league (like most) pays a decent chunk to 2nd place, you probably at least got that $ for Ricky.
Also...those that traded for Williams and made the Super Bowl still could have won despite what he did.
Not a Jets fan, but live in NY so get to see a decent amount of their games. Aside from the fumbles the kid looks good. One thing I don't like though is that it seems to me he gets nicked up a decent amount for a guy getting backup carries.
Is Lex Hilliard worth a grab? he is availableSomeone a few pages back said Lex is worth much is that true?thriftyrocker said:He got hurt, bro. This is not vindication for you. Lex Hilliard had about 20 points in his absence. If you traded Greene for Kevin Smith, you'd probably be moreSSOG said:
It depends on who you are dropping for him. I stashed him in one league.Is Lex Hilliard worth a grab? he is availableSomeone a few pages back said Lex is worth much is that true?thriftyrocker said:He got hurt, bro. This is not vindication for you. Lex Hilliard had about 20 points in his absence. If you traded Greene for Kevin Smith, you'd probably be moreSSOG said:right now
I wouldn't hold your breath waiting for TJ to get hurt. Anything is possible, but he has been remarkably durable and consistent for several straight seasons. Assuming he comes back for another year...when he is healthy, Greene will be limited. But the longer term upside is certainly there.benm3218 said:
The opportunity to buy Stewart was this summer when a shroud of mystery surrounded his ankle. Once the season started and it became clear he was OK, all Stewart owners went back to hanging onto him at proper value and that's as a top 5 back in waiting. I doubt this past weekend against the Giants came as a surprise to any Stewart owners.SSOG said:
That's on me. I was looking through the play-by-play data to see what came before the injury and what came after, but I was mistakenly searching for Polite, not Hilliard.
I didn't leave it out. First off, I don't play in money leagues, so everything I do is about maximizing my chances of finishing #1, not #2. Despite that though, I mentioned that Williams had very good-but-not-great production in the previous two weeks (17.5 and 14.9 points). I also mentioned that it would have been possible for someone to have won a league that they wouldn't have won without Ricky (if their other studs had bad games in week 14 and 15 but good games in week 16, for instance).At the end of the day, Ricky Williams was the 15th best RB in standard scoring leagues over the last 3 weeks, and if you double-weight the superbowl, he falls to 19th. He was not a winning investment. I went through both of my leagues and looked at every single playoff game, and you know what? There wasn't a single game in either league that would have had a different outcome had one team or another replaced their RB2 with Ricky Williams. People were trading a valuable dynasty asset for production over a 3-game sample that didn't materialize.SSOG, usually solid in his analysis also conveniently left out the fact that if you snagged Ricky for your playoffs (typically weeks 14 & 15) - he had the exact type of production you were paying for in that time span - with 16+ fantasy points in each game in standard scoring leagues.If your league (like most) pays a decent chunk to 2nd place, you probably at least got that $ for Ricky.
I stashed him when Brown went down because there was uncertainty in the backfield, and where there's uncertainty, there's almost always value (you just have to know which side the value falls on). I dropped him before last week because it was abundantly obvious that Miami doesn't think there's any chance that he's the answer. Despite 32-year old Ricky being the only other healthy RB on the team, they refused to give Hilliard any work if at all possible. In the past 6 games, he's had 4, 5, 5, 2, 3, and 3 carries. I have very low expectations, but you could always stash him and see how the Miami backfield situation shakes out over the offseason.
I think he may be close to his ceiling, but his ceiling is top 5. That's a pretty darn good ceiling. He is one of the most explosive players in the league. A threat to score every time he touches the ball from anywhere on the field. I wouldn't trade him unless I was getting a lot back in return. I do think he'll be somewhat limited in ppr leagues, but his penchant for blowing up makes him invaluable.
I have him in a dynasty where it's non-ppr, but we do get bonus points for 100 yard games and longer TDs (+2 for TDs over 50 yards). He's a beast and I wouldn't trade him for anyone not named Calvin, Larry, or Andre.Edit: After thinking about it, I don't think I'd trade him for AJohnson.
I'll play the contrarian, here. He's playing a bit over his head right now. So far this season, he's set an NFL record for big plays, and he still has another game to go. NFL records are records for a reason, and I don't think he'll be able to repeat the number of long scores again for the rest of his career.With all of that said, Desean is an incredibly talented WR who I expect to post a lot of top 10 finishes going forward. I just don't think he's a top 5 dynasty guy. Fitz, Johnson, Johnson, and Moss all get force-fed the ball. So did Smiff until this season. I don't know if I think Desean's ever going to be the kind of guy who gets that kind of diet of targets, and without that steady diet I think this current production level is probably a once-or-twice a career type thing. With that said, again, he's an unbelievable talent and without question the best big-play guy in the league today, and I expect to see him doing a lot of good things for a long, long time to come. Top 10 dynasty WR? Yeah. Top 5? No. In addition to Fitz and the Johnsons, I'd rather have VJax, no question. I'd rather have Roddy and Wayne, too. I'd put Desean in a bucket with Colston, Crabtree, and Sidney Rice.
It's very selective to limit his value to those 3 weeks. It would have been just as relevant to start it at week 11, after the Ronnie injury happened. What is his ranking weeks 11-16? Unless you are 8-2 or 9-1, you are not a lock for the playoffs after week 10. You can't dismiss the stretch run, especially working under the assumption the team didn't have anyone as good as Ricky at RB2 during those first 10 weeks.At 4-5, I made a similar deal last year for an old RB just to try and get into the playoffs and do damage. I made it but didn't win. The player helped me little this year but it was still worth it to have a puncher's chance last year and a solid backup RB this year.On another note, let's all learn how to spell A-R-O-M-A-S-H-O-D-U
This reminds me a lot of the arguments against DWill last year (though I guess they were right in some ways). My point is that Jackson has shown that he is a unique player, setting records in only his second year. Why use this against him and say there is no way he can keep it up? Give me a better argument about why he'll regress that isn't "nobody else has these types of seasons with any consistency." Here's two: injuries & maclin. DeSean can do some unbelievable things - but Maclin has great deep speed too and can do things DeSean cant (like go over the middle). Neither player has shown a knack scoring in the red zone but I think Maclin is more likely to develop here. And speaking of going over the middle, DJax is tough, but he gets knocked around a lot. Otherwise, I completely agree with your argument. I agree that he isn't a top 5 dynasty WR and I think top 10 is questionable if we are talking ppr. Fitzgerald, AJ, Marshall, Wayne and Roddy are ahead of him due to the shear volume of opportunities they get. Then there are guys like Austin, Jennings and VJax that are in equally talented offenses with younger QBs and will probably score TDs "easier" than Jackson. I'd put him in that tier, which is about where you had him too. Rice and Calvin are hanging around there, but QB concerns are looming.
Games like tonight are why I hold onto this guy!The talent is there. He's still a headcase though.Having a WR over 5'8" in Aromashodu helps. They had good chemistry in preseason and he has finally gotten a chance.Here's to hoping that 2010 will be more like tonight rather than last week!
Greg Jennings. Similar players, similar breakouts, similar concerns. DJAX is more talented. More elusive. More speed. Mayb DJAX's build makes him more susceptible to injury. But you can't say that based on his injury history so far - one concussion.
DeSean has 2 RZ Tds the past 2 weeks. I don't think he can't. He hadn't this year before week 14, but I don't think he can't.Maclin had a huge week this week. Philly's offense is turning into pick your poison - I dare you to double one. The Eagles will continue to rely on big plays no matter who is QBing or who is catching.
Don't think Jennings is more of a RZ threat than Jackson. He is a less talented version of Jackson. What do you see in Jennings that makes him score TDs "easier"?
Nobody traded for Jerome Harrison in Weeks 9-11 with an eye on this year's playoffs. In Weeks 6-8, he never had more than 5 carries. He sat out injured in Weeks 9-10. Meanwhile, Jamal Lewis was carrying the load, and Mangini elevated Chris Jennings over Harrison. Worse, I don't know of anyone who had Harrison active for his 286-yard, 3-TD effort because he was benched the week before. This is the worst kind of hindsight.
Unless you play in a best-ball format, Harrison wasn't in lineups Week 15's huge performance. Heading into that week, I'd say the majority viewed him as THIRD RB in the pecking order based on Week 14 [behind Jennings & Cribbs]Awful comparison in regards to Ricky Williams. FWIW I think Williams could have been had for a bit less than Shonne Greene in dynasty leagues [i.e. I'd put Williams dynasty value no higher than a mid 2nd round pick]
I don't think anyone doubts that he is a top 10 WR but I don't see him as a top 5 for all the reasons posted. I see him as a second tier guy.
At the end of the day, the entire Greene-for-Williams discussion centered around selling the future for a championship today. As a result, all that's really relevant is whether buying Ricky would have won you a championship today. Sure, the stretch run was nice and all, but I'd imagine that no one would trade a 1st round dynasty pick for Ricky Williams unless their playoff spot was already locked up, so I really don't think his performance from week 11-13 matters much, if at all.
Why? Personally, I think that's a pretty airtight argument right there. You mention DeAngelo Williams as some sort of counterpoint, but you're really just reinforcing my point. Williams had 20 TDs last year. This year he has seven. SEVEN! Yeah, Williams is still an awesome talent, but his TDs are way down because... everyone say it with me now... "nobody has those types of seasons with any consistency".Desean Jackson will in all likelihood never again approach 6 TDs of 60+ yards in a single season, or 8 TDs of 50+ yards, or 9 TDs of 48+ yards in a single season ever again. Why not? Because the NFL has been around for a long, long, long time, and there have been a lot of very, very talented WRs, and none of them have ever managed to do what Desean did this season, let alone do it with any regularity. Will he always be among the league leaders in long TDs? Absolutely- that's what he does. He might even manage to pull off a miracle season like this one once more before he retires. But you can't count on him having a season like this again. Just like Chris Johnson will likely never have 2000 yards and/or 6+ yards per carry ever again in his entire career. Or how Vernon Davis probably isn't putting up a dozen scores again anytime soon.
I like Lynch as a buy low right now considering his low value vs possible payoff, he is only 23 years old.
Charles is the only one with considerable upside in that group. id doubt they would fetch a 1.01/1.02 pick though i woud rather have wyer/mattews/spiller pending there team.
So would you trade Chris Johnson or Desean Jackson now? or DWill after his 2008 season? The logic is that any monster season is outlier and unlikely to be repeated, so the player's value is at the absolute highest. Basically, is an amazing season evidence of a player's great talent and therefore a reason to hold? Or a signal that value is the highest it will ever be for his career and therefore reason to sell?Examples: Priest Holmes 27, Shaun Alexander 28, LT 33, Moss 23, Manning 49, Brady 50. CJ's season should be in the same context. DeSean in 2009 and DWill in 2008 had great seasons, but not record breaking.
OK, you decide Johnson will not match 2009 ever again. Fair enough. But is it unrealistic to expect him to have 1,600 yards and maybe another TD or two? Maybe more receptions for more yards? And, let's be honest: What are you trading him for? For Adrian Peterson? For MJD? One of those and something else?
So are you saying Parleme would be the goal-line choice over Rice? I don't see that happening, especially since Rice proved at Rutgers that he was a goal-line stud. I could see McClain possibly sliding back over at the stripe, but I can't see Parmele doing it.I'd prefer the Texans D/ST to the Saints from 2010 on.
Charles has been great, but you're not going to get him at anything less than a stud price now.I've never been as high on McCoy as the consensus, and his inability to push Leonard Weaver to the side is bothersome to me. I think he's a timeshare back.
Lynch - mid-to-late first (although at this point, you could get him for much cheaper)Charles - mid-to-late first
I mentioned earlier in the thread that when I'm evaluating fantasy defenses, unless a team has a "decided schematic advantage" (i.e. Monte Kiffen, **** Lebeau, Jim Johnson, etc), all I'm looking at is how many young studs are there. Generally, elite fantasy defenses are the product of defensive studs playing out of their minds, so I'm trying to identify fantasy defenses with defensive studs who might soon start playing out of their minds. Houston's the PERFECT candidate- you've got Mario Williams, Brian Cushing, Demeco Ryans, Dunta Robinson, Amobi Akoye... a lot of pedigree, a lot of production, a lot of upside. I could easily see Houston quickly becoming an "out of nowhere" top-10 fantasy defense.
The fact that I don't expect CJ will ever rush for 2000 yards again doesn't mean I'd try to sell him right now unless I can find someone willing to pay as if they were expecting him to repeatedly rush for 2000 yards.
Depends on scoring system etc., but based on my experience in a league that does this and what I think of these guys:Charles would top 5, top 10 worst (I find people still like rookies more and there are legitimate concerns about Charles)Floyd - mid 2nd to 3rd (only slightly higher because he is the most familiar name of the WR)Gibson- late 2nd to someowhere in the 3rd (lots other young Wrs and serious QB/OL questions)Aromashodu- late 2nd to somewhere in the 3rd (The same as Gibson with an inconsistent QB versus unknown)
s all around.I'm one of Maclin's biggest fans and in a year or two I believe he'll be the guy the defenses try to take out of the game more than DeSean while McNabb plays his impression of New England-lite - although DJ is closer to Welker than Maclin is to Moss, although perhaps they're more akin to Holt/Bruce? I honestly don't see Maclin as consistent as we'd like our top WRs to be but that's in large part because the defenses will key in on him, freeing up DJ. Among the young WRs, DeSean is right in tier two behind Calvin, right with Crabtree, Rice, CJ, Austin, and a few others - probably on top of that tier.
I'd have a hard time taking Charles over the top 4 RBs but in a RB heavy league he's probably right behind them. 5-7 depending on how your league values WRs. In the leagues I play in which the values are IMO better spread, I'm not sure I take Charles top 10. Depends how things shake out.Gibson I actually like somewhat as a late 2nd, the other two you can have unless they get into the 5th.
I agree in terms of tier 2. I'd also lump guys like Colston and R. White in that tier - boarderline #1s that for whatever reason (in Colston and DJax's cases, fluctuating chances game to game) don't see consistant #1 production (i.e. they're not "force fed" the ball the same way guys like Fitz, AJ, and Calvin usually are). I'd probably throw VJax in the #1 tier with Fitz, AJ and Calvin. I don't think I would include Crabtree in tier 2 yet though.Basically, the tier 2 guys can put up tier 1 numbers on any given week (see R. White this past week) - they just don't do it as consistantly as the tier 1 guys.
You mention White, but it bears mentioning that they throw to him constantly. He actually has more targets than Fitz on the season (157 to 146). White's problems stem from other issues, including the regression of the Atlanta OL and fewer deep balls.
I don't think he's saying sell CJ, rather he was just using him as an example of a guy that won't put up those near record breaking numbers again, because realistically people just don't do that.The difference between LT, Faulk, Alexander, Peyton, Brady, etc and DeSean Jackson is that even when you take away those record breaking statistics and bring them back down to their typical (still near league leading) range, you're still left with a stud. You take away Peyton's 48 TDs and bring them back down to 30, and he's still a stud. You take away LT's 31 TDs and bring them back down to 16, and he's still a stud. Etc. They have the other stats to supplement that.Jackson's "outlier" isn't a total TDs or total yards outlier like those guys, that is supplemented by other stats, and that even when brought down to just top 5 in the league still leaves him with great stats. His "outlier" is more akin to the TDs per reception outlier that came with guys like Lee Evans and Donte Stallworth early in their careers (and that comes with Robert Meachem right now, who is also a sell in my book).With DeSean, you're looking at a 1200/10 guy who needed to smash a record just to get to that. You take away his ridiculous number of long TDs (which WILL happen, you won't break the record every year) and bring them back down to even just "near the league lead", and what are you left with? Not much.That's not to say that Jackson can't develop into more consistent type guy who doesn't rely on those big plays, but that's something he's going to have to do no different than dozens of other WRs that haven't had record breaking long TD years to supplement what they lack in that department.Personally if I owned Jackson I would be in bigtime sell mode right now. I would not be in the least bit surprised if he ends up with a similar (but slightly better) career path to Lee Evans. A guy that might have two 1200 yard seasons over the course of 5 years, but puts up 700-800 yards in the other 3.
Just goes to show, as F&L and others I think have mentioned in this thread, how little rookie draft picks outside top 5/6 and even more so outside the first round are worth. Depending on your league size and roster requirements Floyd, Gibson, Aromashodu are nice stash and wait players, but they are all borderline waiver wire guys.
That is very
Essentially, most rookies are stash and wait players, so in many cases drafting a 2nd or 3rd year player (especially WR/TE) shortens the period of figuring out if you have something. In one league, I saw Garcon, Schilens and Celek go bewteen 26-31overall, around players like Gartrell Johnosn, Pat White. After that point there were a couple owner who found Johnny Know and Mike Wallace, but your were more likely to draft Bardeen or Peerman. The key is not just being able to rank the rookies, but also place their talent among the pool of all NFL guys.
If you want to project forward, I think it's important that you look behind the numbers and understand where they are coming from. The key point to understand here is that TDs are by far the most variable offensive stat from year to year, and as a result have the most impact in terms of up/down years. Let's look at LT's prime years from 2001-2007 as compared to his record-setting 2006 season. Except for the 100 year catch in 2003, he was pretty consistent with the receptions (as CJ has been so far), so let's focus on the rushing numbers. In other years, he averaged 342/1529/16.6; in 2006, he put up 349/1815/28 for 5.2 YPC. So, his total FPs (in non-PPR) were up 34%, but his carries were only up 2%, YPC up 16%, and rush yards up 18%. Where did most of those points come from? TDs, of course, which were 68% higher than his career average. Not only were the numbers up, the TDs per touch rate was up 55%... scoring once every 12 carries vs. a career average of once per 22 carries. To put this in perspective - in order to score 28 TDs at the rate he had the rest of his career, he would have had to have 634 carries.
