Dynasty Rankings (10 Viewers)

SSOG said:

jdoggydogg said:

I'm interested in the board's opinions on these two players given the changes that happened during the offseason:

Larry Fitzgerald

Brilliant talent, but doesn't the retirement of Warner hurt Fitz's ranking? And now that Boldin is gone, it'll be easier to swing coverage over to Fitz. I think Fitz is a sell right now given his name value. Leinart is a huge drop down from Warner.

LeSean McCoy

Seems like Westbrook's retirement would get McCoy owners excited. But McCoy just doesn't seem like a star player to me. He had very few big plays last year (I think he didn't have a run longer than 30 yards?). Clearly, this is an excellent offense. I wonder if McCoy will be overvalued this year.

Click to expand...

Fitzgerald-Still #1. Frankly, who would you put over him? I could totally see putting Andre Johnson there because AJ is a heathen he-beast... but Andre is 2 years older, and quite frankly, he's not much of a threat in the red zone. Over the last 3 years (aka the "Matt Schaub" era in Houston), Andre has posted a TD for every 11.1 catches, and he's never in his career hit 10 scores. Fitz averages a score for every 8.9 catches (the difference between an 11-score season and a 9-score season on 100 catches), and over the last 3 years he averages a TD for every 8.4 catches (works out to 12 scores on 100 catches compared to 9 for Johnson). Sure, the offense will change with Boldin and Warner gone, but Fitzgerald is still the biggest red zone weapon in the league, and I strongly believe his TDs will continue to reflect that. I also still believe he's the most talented WR in the league. He might have an off season here or there, but I think when all is said and done, we'll be looking at a Hall of Fame career, and I definitely want to be a part of that as a fantasy owner.

After Andre, though, who would you rank above Fitz? Calvin? Calvin's a comparable talent, but he's produced less (and is less proven), and he's playing in a worse offense with a QB who at this point looks just as bad. And after that, who is there? Wayne is 31, VJax still hasn't made "the leap" into the uber-elite, Desean has never posted 65 receptions and is even less of a threat in the red zone than Andre is. Roddy is awesome and a quality fantasy WR1, but he's got Reggie Wayne upside and not Randy Moss upside (Wayne has only topped 200 points once in his career, while Moss did it 6 times, and even Fitzgerald himself has already done it 3 times). Miles Austin is an interesting case- I actually think he's the guy outside the "top 3" that makes the most sense to include with the "big 3" (which is different than saying I'd rank him 4th), but his upside is really only what Fitz has already accomplished, and his downside is much lower than Fitzgerald's, to boot.

Remember that Fitzgerald posted one of his three 100/1400/10 seasons back in 2005, when he was a sophomore, the Cardinals were 5-11, and Kurt Warner missed half the games (and was hardly the Kurt Warner of 2008 even when he played). It's not like Fitzgerald is a Reggie Wayne, here- a guy who has played his entire career in the comfortable confines of one of the best offenses in the entire league.

I think a solid comparison here is Brandon Marshall. In '08, Marshall posted 104/1265/6 in 15 games in the #3 passing offense with a pro bowl QB at the helm and lots of targets drawing attention (3 other players topped 40 receptions, led by Royal with 91). In '09, Marshall posted 101/1120/10 in 15 games in the #13 passing offense with a castoff QB at the helm and no other targets drawing attention (only one other receiver topped 40 catches- Jabar Gaffney with 54). Talent is talent.

Click to expand...

SSOG said:

jdoggydogg said:

I'm interested in the board's opinions on these two players given the changes that happened during the offseason:

Larry Fitzgerald

Brilliant talent, but doesn't the retirement of Warner hurt Fitz's ranking? And now that Boldin is gone, it'll be easier to swing coverage over to Fitz. I think Fitz is a sell right now given his name value. Leinart is a huge drop down from Warner.

LeSean McCoy

Seems like Westbrook's retirement would get McCoy owners excited. But McCoy just doesn't seem like a star player to me. He had very few big plays last year (I think he didn't have a run longer than 30 yards?). Clearly, this is an excellent offense. I wonder if McCoy will be overvalued this year.

Click to expand...

Fitzgerald-Still #1. Frankly, who would you put over him? I could totally see putting Andre Johnson there because AJ is a heathen he-beast... but Andre is 2 years older, and quite frankly, he's not much of a threat in the red zone. Over the last 3 years (aka the "Matt Schaub" era in Houston), Andre has posted a TD for every 11.1 catches, and he's never in his career hit 10 scores. Fitz averages a score for every 8.9 catches (the difference between an 11-score season and a 9-score season on 100 catches), and over the last 3 years he averages a TD for every 8.4 catches (works out to 12 scores on 100 catches compared to 9 for Johnson). Sure, the offense will change with Boldin and Warner gone, but Fitzgerald is still the biggest red zone weapon in the league, and I strongly believe his TDs will continue to reflect that. I also still believe he's the most talented WR in the league. He might have an off season here or there, but I think when all is said and done, we'll be looking at a Hall of Fame career, and I definitely want to be a part of that as a fantasy owner.

After Andre, though, who would you rank above Fitz? Calvin? Calvin's a comparable talent, but he's produced less (and is less proven), and he's playing in a worse offense with a QB who at this point looks just as bad. And after that, who is there? Wayne is 31, VJax still hasn't made "the leap" into the uber-elite, Desean has never posted 65 receptions and is even less of a threat in the red zone than Andre is. Roddy is awesome and a quality fantasy WR1, but he's got Reggie Wayne upside and not Randy Moss upside (Wayne has only topped 200 points once in his career, while Moss did it 6 times, and even Fitzgerald himself has already done it 3 times). Miles Austin is an interesting case- I actually think he's the guy outside the "top 3" that makes the most sense to include with the "big 3" (which is different than saying I'd rank him 4th), but his upside is really only what Fitz has already accomplished, and his downside is much lower than Fitzgerald's, to boot.

Remember that Fitzgerald posted one of his three 100/1400/10 seasons back in 2005, when he was a sophomore, the Cardinals were 5-11, and Kurt Warner missed half the games (and was hardly the Kurt Warner of 2008 even when he played). It's not like Fitzgerald is a Reggie Wayne, here- a guy who has played his entire career in the comfortable confines of one of the best offenses in the entire league.

I think a solid comparison here is Brandon Marshall. In '08, Marshall posted 104/1265/6 in 15 games in the #3 passing offense with a pro bowl QB at the helm and lots of targets drawing attention (3 other players topped 40 receptions, led by Royal with 91). In '09, Marshall posted 101/1120/10 in 15 games in the #13 passing offense with a castoff QB at the helm and no other targets drawing attention (only one other receiver topped 40 catches- Jabar Gaffney with 54). Talent is talent.

Click to expand...

SSOG said:

jdoggydogg said:

I'm interested in the board's opinions on these two players given the changes that happened during the offseason:

Larry Fitzgerald

Brilliant talent, but doesn't the retirement of Warner hurt Fitz's ranking? And now that Boldin is gone, it'll be easier to swing coverage over to Fitz. I think Fitz is a sell right now given his name value. Leinart is a huge drop down from Warner.

LeSean McCoy

Seems like Westbrook's retirement would get McCoy owners excited. But McCoy just doesn't seem like a star player to me. He had very few big plays last year (I think he didn't have a run longer than 30 yards?). Clearly, this is an excellent offense. I wonder if McCoy will be overvalued this year.

Click to expand...

Fitzgerald-Still #1. Frankly, who would you put over him? I could totally see putting Andre Johnson there because AJ is a heathen he-beast... but Andre is 2 years older, and quite frankly, he's not much of a threat in the red zone. Over the last 3 years (aka the "Matt Schaub" era in Houston), Andre has posted a TD for every 11.1 catches, and he's never in his career hit 10 scores. Fitz averages a score for every 8.9 catches (the difference between an 11-score season and a 9-score season on 100 catches), and over the last 3 years he averages a TD for every 8.4 catches (works out to 12 scores on 100 catches compared to 9 for Johnson). Sure, the offense will change with Boldin and Warner gone, but Fitzgerald is still the biggest red zone weapon in the league, and I strongly believe his TDs will continue to reflect that. I also still believe he's the most talented WR in the league. He might have an off season here or there, but I think when all is said and done, we'll be looking at a Hall of Fame career, and I definitely want to be a part of that as a fantasy owner.

After Andre, though, who would you rank above Fitz? Calvin? Calvin's a comparable talent, but he's produced less (and is less proven), and he's playing in a worse offense with a QB who at this point looks just as bad. And after that, who is there? Wayne is 31, VJax still hasn't made "the leap" into the uber-elite, Desean has never posted 65 receptions and is even less of a threat in the red zone than Andre is. Roddy is awesome and a quality fantasy WR1, but he's got Reggie Wayne upside and not Randy Moss upside (Wayne has only topped 200 points once in his career, while Moss did it 6 times, and even Fitzgerald himself has already done it 3 times). Miles Austin is an interesting case- I actually think he's the guy outside the "top 3" that makes the most sense to include with the "big 3" (which is different than saying I'd rank him 4th), but his upside is really only what Fitz has already accomplished, and his downside is much lower than Fitzgerald's, to boot.

Remember that Fitzgerald posted one of his three 100/1400/10 seasons back in 2005, when he was a sophomore, the Cardinals were 5-11, and Kurt Warner missed half the games (and was hardly the Kurt Warner of 2008 even when he played). It's not like Fitzgerald is a Reggie Wayne, here- a guy who has played his entire career in the comfortable confines of one of the best offenses in the entire league.

I think a solid comparison here is Brandon Marshall. In '08, Marshall posted 104/1265/6 in 15 games in the #3 passing offense with a pro bowl QB at the helm and lots of targets drawing attention (3 other players topped 40 receptions, led by Royal with 91). In '09, Marshall posted 101/1120/10 in 15 games in the #13 passing offense with a castoff QB at the helm and no other targets drawing attention (only one other receiver topped 40 catches- Jabar Gaffney with 54). Talent is talent.

Click to expand...

The Real Hipster Doofus said:

I think you make good points here , although I disagree with a few points. I think Calvin in the most talented WR to come into the league since Moss, although I would put Fitz next in line behind him. He put up 1300 and 12 TDs in his second year, with Jon Kitna throwing to him. Last season, due to injuries, a revolving door at QB and triple coverage, he produced a season that I would consider pretty much his floor. That floor was 984 yards and 5 TD's in basically 13 games. I also think you are way off on the QB who looks just as bad. I was very against the Stafford pick at the time it was made, but I saw enough of him last season to lead me to believe he will be a very good QB in this league. In short, I think as the team improves around him and he grows with Stafford, he becomes the #1 WR by a fair margin. I see him putting up some seasons with Moss like TD numbers in the future (15+). I would expect basically around 1300+ yards and 10+ TD's most years, with the potential for some monster years thrown in there as well.

Click to expand...

FreeBaGeL said:

The Real Hipster Doofus said:

I think you make good points here , although I disagree with a few points. I think Calvin in the most talented WR to come into the league since Moss, although I would put Fitz next in line behind him. He put up 1300 and 12 TDs in his second year, with Jon Kitna throwing to him. Last season, due to injuries, a revolving door at QB and triple coverage, he produced a season that I would consider pretty much his floor. That floor was 984 yards and 5 TD's in basically 13 games. I also think you are way off on the QB who looks just as bad. I was very against the Stafford pick at the time it was made, but I saw enough of him last season to lead me to believe he will be a very good QB in this league. In short, I think as the team improves around him and he grows with Stafford, he becomes the #1 WR by a fair margin. I see him putting up some seasons with Moss like TD numbers in the future (15+). I would expect basically around 1300+ yards and 10+ TD's most years, with the potential for some monster years thrown in there as well.

Click to expand...

I know I'll take some flak for this, but I think Calvin's "football talent" is way overrated. His advantage comes in his freakish physical ability, which can be matched by no WR in the league.But in terms of his hands, his ability to make plays in traffic, his ability to attack the ball in the air, I just don't see anything special on those fronts and his freakish size and speed combo covers up what he lacks in those areas.I watched him a lot this year, as I acquired him last offseason. It wasn't just the QB play or the injuries holding him back. A LOT of balls hit him in the hands and fell to the turf. A lot of balls got near him and fell to the turf. A lot of balls went to him in single coverage in the perfect spot for him to make a play on them, and fell to the turf.Fitzgerald is like a vacuum cleaner. If it's in his area, he's going to catch it more often than not. Calvin had SO many plays this past year where it looked like he was about to make a play on the ball, and he just didn't. They're not easy catches or anything, but plays that a guy who is "the most talented WR in the league" should make the majority of the time. Obviously no one is going to make those plays every time, but Calvin made them at an alarmingly low rate this year. There were so many games I watched where if he could have just made those two catches in single coverage when he had position on the DB, or if he had just gotten that foot down in bounds, he would have had a good day, but he didn't.I know Stafford was often errant this year, but when you have hands the size of Shaquille O'Neal you should be able to reach out and catch a pass that's thrown behind you. When you have an 8 inch advantage on the DB covering you you should be able to catch a fade over him more often, etc.Maybe I just expected too much of him.

Click to expand...

ookook said:

I tend to agree is talent is over-rated. People think of physical ability too much compared to receiving skills. He has the former but seems to lack some in the latter. And that is without even getting at motivation.He certainly doesn't make plays on the ball the Moss did when he was a Viking.

Click to expand...

az_prof said:

ookook said:

I tend to agree is talent is over-rated. People think of physical ability too much compared to receiving skills. He has the former but seems to lack some in the latter. And that is without even getting at motivation.He certainly doesn't make plays on the ball the Moss did when he was a Viking.

Click to expand...

I agree with this and the previous critique of Calvin by FreeBaGel. He's over valued because of his freakish physical ability. Braylon Edwards also has freakish physical ability, to a lesser degree, but really exceptional nonetheless. It takes more than that to be a top 10 much less a consistently top 3 WR in the NFL. Calvin could still develop the dedication and work ethic to realize his potential, but I still maintain that he is overvalued here and has yet to show the consistency that I expect of a top 3 dynasty WR.

Click to expand...

thriftyrocker said:

Calvin Johnson's 40 time is .15 faster, he's 2" taller, and his vertical jump was 7" higher. Edwards is in the same league as VJax and maybe even AJ as far as athletic ability, but Calvin Johnson's measurables are just obscene. I don't think Edwards is top 3 as far as athletic ability.

Click to expand...

SSOG said:

thriftyrocker said:

Calvin Johnson's 40 time is .15 faster, he's 2" taller, and his vertical jump was 7" higher. Edwards is in the same league as VJax and maybe even AJ as far as athletic ability, but Calvin Johnson's measurables are just obscene. I don't think Edwards is top 3 as far as athletic ability.

Click to expand...

Braylon Edwards

4.45 forty, 38" vertical, 10'6" broad jump, 4.02 shuttle

Vincent Jackson

4.46 forty, 39" vertical, 10'9" broad jump, 4.00 shuttle

The numbers are pretty close, but with a slight edge to VJax (same straight line speed, better leaping ability, more explosion)... but Braylon put up those numbers at 6'3" 210lbs, while VJax put up his at 6'5" 241 lbs. That's a 30+ lb difference- we're talking about a bigger difference than the difference between Jonathan Stewart (235) and Darren McFadden (210). Braylon isn't close to the same league as VJax when it comes to athletic ability.

Click to expand...

thriftyrocker said:

Your manlove for VJax knows no bounds. WRs aren't RBs. Added weight is not necessarily a benefit. Show me how weight relates to YAC or any other useful stat, and I will give a damn. The numbers are exactly the same and VJax is 2" taller. That is same league. VJax has since slimmed down to 230 for a reason.

Click to expand...

az_prof said:

ookook said:

I tend to agree is talent is over-rated. People think of physical ability too much compared to receiving skills. He has the former but seems to lack some in the latter. And that is without even getting at motivation.

He certainly doesn't make plays on the ball the Moss did when he was a Viking.

Click to expand...

I agree with this and the previous critique of Calvin by FreeBaGel. He's over valued because of his freakish physical ability. Braylon Edwards also has freakish physical ability, to a lesser degree, but really exceptional nonetheless. It takes more than that to be a top 10 much less a consistently top 3 WR in the NFL. Calvin could still develop the dedication and work ethic to realize his potential, but I still maintain that he is overvalued here and has yet to show the consistency that I expect of a top 3 dynasty WR.

Click to expand...

And the 6’5” wide receivers – Vincent Jackson and Malcom Floyd – were tough to stop downfield. Jackson is the more polished player, but Floyd is the better athlete. Don’t be shocked if Floyd eats up some of Jackson’s numbers in 2010.

Click to expand...

EBF said:

I wonder if Calvin isn't a little bit overrated. He's certainly an elite big play threat. His combination of height, strength, and straight line speed makes him a lethal option downfield. On the other hand, he's not very quick laterally and I wonder if he'll ever be a consistent option on short and intermediate routes. The reason why guys like Marshall and Fitzgerald top the charts every year in WR scoring is because they're consistent and reliable everywhere on the field. Right now I see Calvin as more of a feast-or-famine deep threat. He can get downfield and make big plays, but I don't see him as an elite "move the chains" option.

I actually just traded Calvin for Crabtree and two draft picks in a dynasty league. This isn't a matter of falling in love with "the next big thing." I just feel like Calvin's flashy physical qualities might be inflating his value slightly. People look at his size/speed and automatically think "upside" without asking themselves whether he's really a complete WR. I think he's a very talented player with difference-maker potential in any given week, but I don't know if he deserves to be placed in a tier above guys like Jennings, Crabtree, Rice, and Marshall. It will be difficult to outperform that group. He's certainly capable of it. I just think he's being given more credit than he has earned on the field.

Click to expand...

SSOG said:

You mentioned that VJax slimmed down to 230. Do you think he didn't gain *ANY* speed while slimming down? If he didn't gain speed, then why did he slim down in the first place? If he did gain speed, then it just shows once again that Braylon isn't in VJax's class athletically- their numbers were similar, but then VJax improved on his numbers, so therefore their numbers are now dissimilar.

Click to expand...

EBF said:

As for Vincent Jackson, I recently read something pertaining to him that might interest people around these parts.

The New York Times is running a great series of recaps that offer a quick overview of each NFL team's performance based on game film observations. Here's what they had to say about the San Diego offense:

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02...-film-revealed/

And the 6’5” wide receivers – Vincent Jackson and Malcom Floyd – were tough to stop downfield. Jackson is the more polished player, but Floyd is the better athlete. Don’t be shocked if Floyd eats up some of Jackson’s numbers in 2010.

Click to expand...

I find it unlikely that Floyd will emerge and become an impact player after years of obscurity, but I guess it's possible. Joe Horn and Donald Driver pulled a similar feat. Before you dismiss it as pure pap, consider that the Chargers cut Chris Chambers in order to make room for Floyd in the starting lineup. After the season they slapped him with the maximum tender of a 1st and 3rd round pick. Adam Caplan, arguably the best NFL reporter for Scout.com, has been touting Floyd this offseason. They have him ranked as a 4 star WR free agent, sandwiched right between Braylon Edwards and Antonio Bryant. He might be a bit of a sleeping giant here.

Click to expand...

EBF said:

As for Vincent Jackson, I recently read something pertaining to him that might interest people around these parts.

The New York Times is running a great series of recaps that offer a quick overview of each NFL team's performance based on game film observations. Here's what they had to say about the San Diego offense:

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02...-film-revealed/

And the 6’5” wide receivers – Vincent Jackson and Malcom Floyd – were tough to stop downfield. Jackson is the more polished player, but Floyd is the better athlete. Don’t be shocked if Floyd eats up some of Jackson’s numbers in 2010.

Click to expand...

I find it unlikely that Floyd will emerge and become an impact player after years of obscurity, but I guess it's possible. Joe Horn and Donald Driver pulled a similar feat. Before you dismiss it as pure pap, consider that the Chargers cut Chris Chambers in order to make room for Floyd in the starting lineup. After the season they slapped him with the maximum tender of a 1st and 3rd round pick. Adam Caplan, arguably the best NFL reporter for Scout.com, has been touting Floyd this offseason. They have him ranked as a 4 star WR free agent, sandwiched right between Braylon Edwards and Antonio Bryant. He might be a bit of a sleeping giant here.

Click to expand...

EBF said:

I wonder if Calvin isn't a little bit overrated. He's certainly an elite big play threat. His combination of height, strength, and straight line speed makes him a lethal option downfield. On the other hand, he's not very quick laterally and I wonder if he'll ever be a consistent option on short and intermediate routes. The reason why guys like Marshall and Fitzgerald top the charts every year in WR scoring is because they're consistent and reliable everywhere on the field. Right now I see Calvin as more of a feast-or-famine deep threat. He can get downfield and make big plays, but I don't see him as an elite "move the chains" option. I actually just traded Calvin for Crabtree and two draft picks in a dynasty league. This isn't a matter of falling in love with "the next big thing." I just feel like Calvin's flashy physical qualities might be inflating his value slightly. People look at his size/speed and automatically think "upside" without asking themselves whether he's really a complete WR. I think he's a very talented player with difference-maker potential in any given week, but I don't know if he deserves to be placed in a tier above guys like Jennings, Crabtree, Rice, and Marshall. It will be difficult to outperform that group. He's certainly capable of it. I just think he's being given more credit than he has earned on the field.

Click to expand...

Steed said:

EBF said:

I wonder if Calvin isn't a little bit overrated. He's certainly an elite big play threat. His combination of height, strength, and straight line speed makes him a lethal option downfield. On the other hand, he's not very quick laterally and I wonder if he'll ever be a consistent option on short and intermediate routes. The reason why guys like Marshall and Fitzgerald top the charts every year in WR scoring is because they're consistent and reliable everywhere on the field. Right now I see Calvin as more of a feast-or-famine deep threat. He can get downfield and make big plays, but I don't see him as an elite "move the chains" option. I actually just traded Calvin for Crabtree and two draft picks in a dynasty league. This isn't a matter of falling in love with "the next big thing." I just feel like Calvin's flashy physical qualities might be inflating his value slightly. People look at his size/speed and automatically think "upside" without asking themselves whether he's really a complete WR. I think he's a very talented player with difference-maker potential in any given week, but I don't know if he deserves to be placed in a tier above guys like Jennings, Crabtree, Rice, and Marshall. It will be difficult to outperform that group. He's certainly capable of it. I just think he's being given more credit than he has earned on the field.

Click to expand...

This is certainly contrarian thinking but I have to disagree. Could you really have said this after his 2008 season where he caught 78 balls and was healthy for the most part? I remember him catching lots of the short stuff in addition to the bombs. If he lost any lateral quickness in 2009, I'd attribute it to the knee injury.

Click to expand...

Steed said:

EBF said:

I wonder if Calvin isn't a little bit overrated. He's certainly an elite big play threat. His combination of height, strength, and straight line speed makes him a lethal option downfield. On the other hand, he's not very quick laterally and I wonder if he'll ever be a consistent option on short and intermediate routes. The reason why guys like Marshall and Fitzgerald top the charts every year in WR scoring is because they're consistent and reliable everywhere on the field. Right now I see Calvin as more of a feast-or-famine deep threat. He can get downfield and make big plays, but I don't see him as an elite "move the chains" option.

I actually just traded Calvin for Crabtree and two draft picks in a dynasty league. This isn't a matter of falling in love with "the next big thing." I just feel like Calvin's flashy physical qualities might be inflating his value slightly. People look at his size/speed and automatically think "upside" without asking themselves whether he's really a complete WR. I think he's a very talented player with difference-maker potential in any given week, but I don't know if he deserves to be placed in a tier above guys like Jennings, Crabtree, Rice, and Marshall. It will be difficult to outperform that group. He's certainly capable of it. I just think he's being given more credit than he has earned on the field.

Click to expand...

This is certainly contrarian thinking but I have to disagree. Could you really have said this after his 2008 season where he caught 78 balls and was healthy for the most part? I remember him catching lots of the short stuff in addition to the bombs. If he lost any lateral quickness in 2009, I'd attribute it to the knee injury.

Click to expand...

EBF said:

Steed said:

EBF said:

I wonder if Calvin isn't a little bit overrated. He's certainly an elite big play threat. His combination of height, strength, and straight line speed makes him a lethal option downfield. On the other hand, he's not very quick laterally and I wonder if he'll ever be a consistent option on short and intermediate routes. The reason why guys like Marshall and Fitzgerald top the charts every year in WR scoring is because they're consistent and reliable everywhere on the field. Right now I see Calvin as more of a feast-or-famine deep threat. He can get downfield and make big plays, but I don't see him as an elite "move the chains" option.

I actually just traded Calvin for Crabtree and two draft picks in a dynasty league. This isn't a matter of falling in love with "the next big thing." I just feel like Calvin's flashy physical qualities might be inflating his value slightly. People look at his size/speed and automatically think "upside" without asking themselves whether he's really a complete WR. I think he's a very talented player with difference-maker potential in any given week, but I don't know if he deserves to be placed in a tier above guys like Jennings, Crabtree, Rice, and Marshall. It will be difficult to outperform that group. He's certainly capable of it. I just think he's being given more credit than he has earned on the field.

Click to expand...

This is certainly contrarian thinking but I have to disagree. Could you really have said this after his 2008 season where he caught 78 balls and was healthy for the most part? I remember him catching lots of the short stuff in addition to the bombs. If he lost any lateral quickness in 2009, I'd attribute it to the knee injury.

Click to expand...

I don't want to go overboard with Calvin hate. He's a talented player who could eventually justify all of the lofty expectations for him. He put up decent stats in 2009 despite a lot of factors working against him and he had a great season in 2008. If Stafford develops and the Lions become a competent offense, Calvin may indeed skyrocket to Fitz/Andre/Marshall/Moss levels of production. On the other hand, I think there's a bit of a Roy Williams/Braylon Edwards thing with Calvin where people tend to rank him a little bit higher than his production would dictate. He was barely a top 20 WR last season in terms of PPG and yet he's still considered an untouchable top 3 dynasty WR, going as high as WR1 in some dynasty startups.

I think people look at the height/speed and the flashy big plays and automatically think that this guy is going to be a monster every season. As much as I like to place emphasis on workout numbers, being tall and fast in a straight line doesn't make you a great route runner or receiver. I don't think Calvin is as fluid as guys like Fitzgerald and Andre. I don't think he's as dangerous in short range. His big play skills may still allow him to become a perennial top 5 WR, but he's not quite there yet and I'm not convinced that there's any difference in actual value between him and guys like Jennings/Crabtree/Austin/Rice (despite the fact that he's always drafted ahead of them).

Click to expand...

Go deep said:

EBF said:

Steed said:

EBF said:

I wonder if Calvin isn't a little bit overrated. He's certainly an elite big play threat. His combination of height, strength, and straight line speed makes him a lethal option downfield. On the other hand, he's not very quick laterally and I wonder if he'll ever be a consistent option on short and intermediate routes. The reason why guys like Marshall and Fitzgerald top the charts every year in WR scoring is because they're consistent and reliable everywhere on the field. Right now I see Calvin as more of a feast-or-famine deep threat. He can get downfield and make big plays, but I don't see him as an elite "move the chains" option.

I actually just traded Calvin for Crabtree and two draft picks in a dynasty league. This isn't a matter of falling in love with "the next big thing." I just feel like Calvin's flashy physical qualities might be inflating his value slightly. People look at his size/speed and automatically think "upside" without asking themselves whether he's really a complete WR. I think he's a very talented player with difference-maker potential in any given week, but I don't know if he deserves to be placed in a tier above guys like Jennings, Crabtree, Rice, and Marshall. It will be difficult to outperform that group. He's certainly capable of it. I just think he's being given more credit than he has earned on the field.

Click to expand...

This is certainly contrarian thinking but I have to disagree. Could you really have said this after his 2008 season where he caught 78 balls and was healthy for the most part? I remember him catching lots of the short stuff in addition to the bombs. If he lost any lateral quickness in 2009, I'd attribute it to the knee injury.

Click to expand...

I don't want to go overboard with Calvin hate. He's a talented player who could eventually justify all of the lofty expectations for him. He put up decent stats in 2009 despite a lot of factors working against him and he had a great season in 2008. If Stafford develops and the Lions become a competent offense, Calvin may indeed skyrocket to Fitz/Andre/Marshall/Moss levels of production. On the other hand, I think there's a bit of a Roy Williams/Braylon Edwards thing with Calvin where people tend to rank him a little bit higher than his production would dictate. He was barely a top 20 WR last season in terms of PPG and yet he's still considered an untouchable top 3 dynasty WR, going as high as WR1 in some dynasty startups.

I think people look at the height/speed and the flashy big plays and automatically think that this guy is going to be a monster every season. As much as I like to place emphasis on workout numbers, being tall and fast in a straight line doesn't make you a great route runner or receiver. I don't think Calvin is as fluid as guys like Fitzgerald and Andre. I don't think he's as dangerous in short range. His big play skills may still allow him to become a perennial top 5 WR, but he's not quite there yet and I'm not convinced that there's any difference in actual value between him and guys like Jennings/Crabtree/Austin/Rice (despite the fact that he's always drafted ahead of them).

Click to expand...

Yet you mention Crabtree along with Calvin, Jennings, Austin and Rice?

Click to expand...

EBF said:

Go deep said:

EBF said:

Steed said:

EBF said:

I wonder if Calvin isn't a little bit overrated. He's certainly an elite big play threat. His combination of height, strength, and straight line speed makes him a lethal option downfield. On the other hand, he's not very quick laterally and I wonder if he'll ever be a consistent option on short and intermediate routes. The reason why guys like Marshall and Fitzgerald top the charts every year in WR scoring is because they're consistent and reliable everywhere on the field. Right now I see Calvin as more of a feast-or-famine deep threat. He can get downfield and make big plays, but I don't see him as an elite "move the chains" option.

I actually just traded Calvin for Crabtree and two draft picks in a dynasty league. This isn't a matter of falling in love with "the next big thing." I just feel like Calvin's flashy physical qualities might be inflating his value slightly. People look at his size/speed and automatically think "upside" without asking themselves whether he's really a complete WR. I think he's a very talented player with difference-maker potential in any given week, but I don't know if he deserves to be placed in a tier above guys like Jennings, Crabtree, Rice, and Marshall. It will be difficult to outperform that group. He's certainly capable of it. I just think he's being given more credit than he has earned on the field.

Click to expand...

This is certainly contrarian thinking but I have to disagree. Could you really have said this after his 2008 season where he caught 78 balls and was healthy for the most part? I remember him catching lots of the short stuff in addition to the bombs. If he lost any lateral quickness in 2009, I'd attribute it to the knee injury.

Click to expand...

I don't want to go overboard with Calvin hate. He's a talented player who could eventually justify all of the lofty expectations for him. He put up decent stats in 2009 despite a lot of factors working against him and he had a great season in 2008. If Stafford develops and the Lions become a competent offense, Calvin may indeed skyrocket to Fitz/Andre/Marshall/Moss levels of production. On the other hand, I think there's a bit of a Roy Williams/Braylon Edwards thing with Calvin where people tend to rank him a little bit higher than his production would dictate. He was barely a top 20 WR last season in terms of PPG and yet he's still considered an untouchable top 3 dynasty WR, going as high as WR1 in some dynasty startups.

I think people look at the height/speed and the flashy big plays and automatically think that this guy is going to be a monster every season. As much as I like to place emphasis on workout numbers, being tall and fast in a straight line doesn't make you a great route runner or receiver. I don't think Calvin is as fluid as guys like Fitzgerald and Andre. I don't think he's as dangerous in short range. His big play skills may still allow him to become a perennial top 5 WR, but he's not quite there yet and I'm not convinced that there's any difference in actual value between him and guys like Jennings/Crabtree/Austin/Rice (despite the fact that he's always drafted ahead of them).

Click to expand...

Yet you mention Crabtree along with Calvin, Jennings, Austin and Rice?

Click to expand...

Yep. You have to project a bit with young players. I had Calvin ranked as a top 10 dynasty WR after his rookie season as well. The people who rank Calvin as a top 3 dynasty WR obviously think 2008 is more representative of his future than 2009. They might be right. My point isn't that he's a bad player, but rather that he might not be any better than 5-10 other guys who don't get nearly as much hype. I don't see him as being a solid tier above the likes of Austin, Rice, Colston, and Crabtree.

Click to expand...

EBF said:

The people who rank Calvin as a top 3 dynasty WR obviously think 2008 is more representative of his future than 2009. They might be right. My point isn't that he's a bad player, but rather that he might not be any better than 5-10 other guys who don't get nearly as much hype. I don't see him as being a solid tier above the likes of Austin, Rice, Colston, and Crabtree.

Click to expand...

EBF said:

That's fine. I have a feeling that Crabtree will prove you wrong, but he hasn't done it yet. Consider that as a rookie who missed all of training camp and the first five games of the season, he stepped in and immediately became a solid starting WR for the 49ers. He averaged 4.4 catches and 56.8 yards per game, which equates to 70 catches for 908 yards in a 16 game season. That's a great rookie year that compares favorably to other high first rounders:Andre Johnson - 66 catches, 976 yardsMichael Crabtree - 70 catches, 908 yardsLarry Fitzgerald - 58 catches, 780 yardsCalvin Johnson - 48 catches, 756 yardsAnd again, he did this with something crazy like 1-2 weeks of practice. The 49ers are a local team, so I got to see Crabtree in action numerous times last season. In many ways he's the anti-Calvin. He doesn't have flashy speed or big play skills, but he's natural WR who explodes out of cuts, easily separates in the short/intermediate game, and catches everything he can get his mitts on. I would say he's closer to Fitz/Boldin than he is to Calvin/Andre. Nothing flashy. Just catches everything thrown his way. He's going to be a really solid possession WR for as long as his health allows.

Click to expand...

Go deep said:

I wonder how well Crabtree will be able to seperate when he starts to see double coverage.

Click to expand...

I like Crabtree, but he is a less talented Johnson and will likely go through the same growing pains as Johnson in his 2nd/3rd year.

Click to expand...

EBF said:

Go deep said:

I wonder how well Crabtree will be able to seperate when he starts to see double coverage.

Click to expand...

Davis and Morgan will be good enough to prevent teams from selling out against him.

I like Crabtree, but he is a less talented Johnson and will likely go through the same growing pains as Johnson in his 2nd/3rd year.

Click to expand...

This is the sort of thinking that I question. What makes you say Crabtree is less talented? Certainly he doesn't have the same kind of height or straight line speed, but he's quicker with better instincts and hands. He was a more productive player in college (albeit in a much friendlier system) and he had a slightly better rookie season despite virtually zero practice time. I think this is a classic example of freaky good vs. sneaky good. Calvin Johnson is freaky good. He's huge with elite speed. Michael Crabtree is sneaky good. His best attributes are his initial quickness, strength, route running and hands. It's a lot easier to overlook the workmanlike possession WR than it is to overlook the flashy deep threat with freakish size/speed. That doesn't mean the flashier player is more talented though.

Braylon Edwards is not more talented than Jerricho Cotchery. Vincent Jackson is not more talented than Torry Holt (in his prime). DeSean Jackson is not more talented than Jerry Rice. Don't confuse how someone does their job with how well they do it. Calvin Johnson has a more eye-catching style than Michael Crabtree. This doesn't mean he's more talented. Crabtree beats him in a lot of the intangible categories that can't be quantified with a measuring tape or a stop watch. In this regard he's "more talented."

Click to expand...

thriftyrocker said:

SSOG said:

You mentioned that VJax slimmed down to 230. Do you think he didn't gain *ANY* speed while slimming down? If he didn't gain speed, then why did he slim down in the first place? If he did gain speed, then it just shows once again that Braylon isn't in VJax's class athletically- their numbers were similar, but then VJax improved on his numbers, so therefore their numbers are now dissimilar.

Click to expand...

Agility. Balance, flexibility, and stamina are all reasons to slim down other than gaining speed. Lynn Swann famously took ballet and dance lessons to help his game. You can be tall and fast but still be rigid in your hips and upper body, which is a knock to your athletic ability. WRs need this sort of agility more than RBs.

Click to expand...

EBF said:

Yep. You have to project a bit with young players. I had Calvin ranked as a top 10 dynasty WR after his rookie season as well.

Click to expand...

Michael Fox said:

EBF said:

Yep. You have to project a bit with young players. I had Calvin ranked as a top 10 dynasty WR after his rookie season as well.

Click to expand...

If you were this wrong about Calvin (by your own admission), why should we believe you on Crabtree?

Click to expand...

EBF said:

Go deep said:

I wonder how well Crabtree will be able to seperate when he starts to see double coverage.

Click to expand...

Davis and Morgan will be good enough to prevent teams from selling out against him.

I like Crabtree, but he is a less talented Johnson and will likely go through the same growing pains as Johnson in his 2nd/3rd year.

Click to expand...

This is the sort of thinking that I question. What makes you say Crabtree is less talented? Certainly he doesn't have the same kind of height or straight line speed, but he's quicker with better instincts and hands. He was a more productive player in college (albeit in a much friendlier system) and he had a slightly better rookie season despite virtually zero practice time. I think this is a classic example of freaky good vs. sneaky good. Calvin Johnson is freaky good. He's huge with elite speed. Michael Crabtree is sneaky good. His best attributes are his initial quickness, strength, route running and hands. It's a lot easier to overlook the workmanlike possession WR than it is to overlook the flashy deep threat with freakish size/speed. That doesn't mean the flashier player is more talented though.

Braylon Edwards is not more talented than Jerricho Cotchery. Vincent Jackson is not more talented than Torry Holt (in his prime). DeSean Jackson is not more talented than Jerry Rice. Don't confuse how someone does their job with how well they do it. Calvin Johnson has a more eye-catching style than Michael Crabtree. This doesn't mean he's more talented. Crabtree beats him in a lot of the intangible categories that can't be quantified with a measuring tape or a stop watch. In this regard he's "more talented."

Click to expand...

Michael Fox said:

EBF said:

Yep. You have to project a bit with young players. I had Calvin ranked as a top 10 dynasty WR after his rookie season as well.

Click to expand...

If you were this wrong about Calvin (by your own admission), why should we believe you on Crabtree?

Click to expand...

Christo said:

Michael Fox said:

EBF said:

Yep. You have to project a bit with young players. I had Calvin ranked as a top 10 dynasty WR after his rookie season as well.

Click to expand...

If you were this wrong about Calvin (by your own admission), why should we believe you on Crabtree?

Click to expand...

FF is an art not a science. You shouldn't "believe" anyone. Listen to everyone then make up your own mind.

Click to expand...

PranksterJD said:

Michael Fox said:

EBF said:

Yep. You have to project a bit with young players. I had Calvin ranked as a top 10 dynasty WR after his rookie season as well.

Click to expand...

If you were this wrong about Calvin (by your own admission), why should we believe you on Crabtree?

Click to expand...

Everybody gets calls wrong, even the best posters.Bloom had Ronnie at dynasty RB6 at one point.

SSOG has been a Lee Evans fanboy for years.

F&L probably still has Roethlisberger in the top 5 QBs.

Putting a guy on ignore for blowing an FF prediction would make this a pretty boring place.

Click to expand...

Michael Fox said:

PranksterJD said:

Michael Fox said:

EBF said:

Yep. You have to project a bit with young players. I had Calvin ranked as a top 10 dynasty WR after his rookie season as well.

Click to expand...

If you were this wrong about Calvin (by your own admission), why should we believe you on Crabtree?

Click to expand...

Everybody gets calls wrong, even the best posters.Bloom had Ronnie at dynasty RB6 at one point.

SSOG has been a Lee Evans fanboy for years.

F&L probably still has Roethlisberger in the top 5 QBs.

Putting a guy on ignore for blowing an FF prediction would make this a pretty boring place.

Click to expand...

Who said anything about putting EBF on ignore? He's one of my favorite posters, but I think it's worthwhile to understand how his approach has evolved over time.....and I'm curious to hear what he might do differently today if evaluating Calvin.

Click to expand...

Michael Fox said:

EBF said:

Yep. You have to project a bit with young players. I had Calvin ranked as a top 10 dynasty WR after his rookie season as well.

Click to expand...

If you were this wrong about Calvin (by your own admission), why should we believe you on Crabtree?

Click to expand...

SSOG said:

Michael Fox said:

EBF said:

Yep. You have to project a bit with young players. I had Calvin ranked as a top 10 dynasty WR after his rookie season as well.

Click to expand...

If you were this wrong about Calvin (by your own admission), why should we believe you on Crabtree?

Click to expand...

When did EBF admit he was wrong about Calvin? He said that he had Calvin in his top 10 after his rookie season. From the sound of it, he still has Calvin ranked in his top 10. If anything, that shows a lot of consistency on Calvin. There's a huge difference between thinking someone is the 8th best fantasy WR and thinking someone is a bum. All EBF has said is that, instead of ranking Calvin a tier above Jennings/Marshall/Crabtree/Rice/Austin, he would rank Calvin in the same tier as Jennings/Marshall/Crabtree/Austin/Rice (presumably in the tier below Fitz and Andre). Even if Calvin is the last name in that tier, that still puts him at WR8. If Calvin's in the middle of the tier, that still makes him a top 5 WR. If Calvin's at the top of that tier, he's still WR3.

Click to expand...

Michael Fox said:

EBF said:

Yep. You have to project a bit with young players. I had Calvin ranked as a top 10 dynasty WR after his rookie season as well.

Click to expand...

If you were this wrong about Calvin (by your own admission), why should we believe you on Crabtree?

Click to expand...

EBF said:

Michael Fox said:

EBF said:

Yep. You have to project a bit with young players. I had Calvin ranked as a top 10 dynasty WR after his rookie season as well.

Click to expand...

If you were this wrong about Calvin (by your own admission), why should we believe you on Crabtree?

Click to expand...

I'm not sure what you're getting at here. I had Calvin ranked HIGHER than most people after his rookie season. Here's me taking him in April of 2008 at WR6 in a dynasty startup draft.

http://football4.myfantasyleague.com/2008/...=60795&O=17

At the time this was probably considered a slight reach. By the end of the season he was a consensus top 3 dynasty WR.

His value went up after I drafted him and held steady until I traded him. How was I wrong about him?

Click to expand...

Couch Potato said:

I'm an idiot maybe, but I turned down Andre Johnson when offered for Calvin in dynasty this offseason. With their 4 year age diff and their respective points on their production curves, I think it's the right decision. I believe that 2008 scratched the surface for Calvin, 2009 can be forgotten as a lost QB rookie-and-Culpepper mess with no WR alternatives to take pressure off, and that my boy is about to embark on a series of AJ/Fitz-like seasons. If I'm wrong I'm wrong, but in this game if you are afraid to go with your instincts you lose out on a lot of the fun. I'm a believer in him.

Click to expand...

EBF said:

The people who rank Calvin as a top 3 dynasty WR obviously think 2008 is more representative of his future than 2009. They might be right. My point isn't that he's a bad player, but rather that he might not be any better than 5-10 other guys who don't get nearly as much hype. I don't see him as being a solid tier above the likes of Austin, Rice, Colston, and Crabtree.

Click to expand...

Michael Fox said:

EBF said:

The people who rank Calvin as a top 3 dynasty WR obviously think 2008 is more representative of his future than 2009. They might be right. My point isn't that he's a bad player, but rather that he might not be any better than 5-10 other guys who don't get nearly as much hype. I don't see him as being a solid tier above the likes of Austin, Rice, Colston, and Crabtree.

Click to expand...

FYI, this was the post that made me think you have changed your mind on Calvin since his rookie year. It seems like you are now saying that he's really not a particularly special player. IMO, if you rank a rookie WR in the top-10, that means you think he is on the verge of being special.

Click to expand...

Michael Fox said:

SSOG - I think you're being a bit too literal. EBF had reasons for thinking Calvin was a study following his rookie year. Thus he ranked Calvin in the top-10 WRs. Most of us, I think, would expect a stud WR to rise up through the ranks following his rookie year as the WR becomes more consistent and proves himself. Any WR who was ranked top-10 that early - again, this is me editorializing - should be expected to become a dominant force by years 3-4.

Click to expand...

EBF said:

I draft someone when I think they represent value and Calvin at WR6 after his rookie season was definitely value. Has my assessment of him changed? Maybe slightly. I used to be in the camp that saw him as an untouchable slam dunk top 2-3 dynasty WR. I still think he's very talented, but I think there are some overlooked holes in his game and that he's on the verge of becoming a chronic tease in the mold of Lee Evans and Roy Williams. Those two players were overdrafted for years in the absence of reliable production on the basis of their perceived upside and talent. Calvin is MUCH better than them and his production over the past two seasons has been pretty damn good. Just not quite slam dunk top 2 dynasty WR good.It just seems like his current value is predicated on the assumption that it's only a matter of time until he becomes Randy Moss. I'm not sure I'm ready to make that assumption anymore. It's been three years. Maybe what we're seeing right now is what we'll see for the next 4-5 years, in which case Calvin wouldn't seem to be a tier above guys like Marshall, Colston, Rice, Jennings, and Crabtree (who could all conceivably outscore him in that time period). I'm not saying he's crap. Fitz is probably the only WR that I would trade him straight up for without thinking twice about it. On the other hand, I think the gap between him and the next 6-7 guys on my list is much smaller than what the consensus would have you believe. That's all I'm really saying here.

Click to expand...

SSOG said:

Michael Fox said:

SSOG - I think you're being a bit too literal. EBF had reasons for thinking Calvin was a study following his rookie year. Thus he ranked Calvin in the top-10 WRs. Most of us, I think, would expect a stud WR to rise up through the ranks following his rookie year as the WR becomes more consistent and proves himself. Any WR who was ranked top-10 that early - again, this is me editorializing - should be expected to become a dominant force by years 3-4.

Click to expand...

Serious question, but is that really how most of us do our rankings? I'm not trying to call you out or anything, I'm just really curious behind the thought process behind other people's rankings. Because that's not at all how I do my rankings.If I rank a guy 10th, it's because I think he's 10th. I always realize it's possible for a guy to go up or down from where I have him ranked, but I generally try to rank at a point where a guy is as likely to go up as he is to go down (obviously this is a gross generalization- clearly I don't think my #1 ranked WR is as likely to go up as down- but bear with me). If I have a guy ranked 6th after his rookie season, that's because I think he's an awesome WR, but not quite as good of a bet as the 5 guys I have ranked ahead of him. I would never rank a guy at 6th thinking "man, this guy is really so much better than I have him ranked, but he's a rookie so I'm not comfortable putting him up there yet". If I think a guy is a slam-dunk top-3 performer, I'm putting him in my top 3, whether he's a rookie or not, whether he's done it or not. Witness me and VJax. If I have a guy ranked 8th after his rookie year, and then 2-3 years later he's hanging around in the 3rd-8th range, that's not an example of me being more down on him now than I was back then- it's an example of me being higher on him now than I was back then, although maybe not quite as high as I envisioned I would be two years ago.

I'm not saying that my way is the right way and other ways are wrong, I'm just explaining the thought process behind my rankings (or perhaps I should just say the "process behind my rankings", because I wouldn't want to imply that there's always a lot of thought involved ).

Click to expand...