I didnt say that? I think you misquoted me.I did however trade Chris Johnson, i included a few throw-ins and got the 1.1, 1.7, Vernion Davis and Deseaon Jackson. Its a non-PPR, and return yardage league, which makes Desean even more valuable.
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Dynasty Rankings (10 Viewers)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
- Start date
doowain
Footballguy
I don't like to air other's trades on here, but the 2 additional picks in question are in a developmental league. They were the 1.07 rookie (roughly mid 2nd in a regular rookie draft) and a 2011 devy pick (likely around 1.05-1.07).That's not near enough for me to give up Calvin for Crabtree. The other owner in this deal asked me my thoughts and without hesitation told him to take it and run.And as "Go Deep" has stated, you shouldn't sell players based on your value of them if the market value is higher. Why give someone else a discount?
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thriftyrocker
Footballguy
You don't think you were buying high on Davis and Jackson as well? Seems both sides were selling players at their peak.
EBF
Footballguy
The bolded portion is key. I made the deal based on my personal evaluations of these players, not based on what other people would think. Of course you should try to get as much as possible when you make a trade, but sometimes the other owner is savvy enough not to grossly overpay. In these cases you should still take a deal below market value if you think you're getting the best of it.
Tau837
Footballguy
You can't make a statement like the bolded unless you are in EBF's league. When it comes down to making a specific trade in a specific league, the market value of the players involved is irrelevant... all that is relevant is how the owners involved in the trade perceive them.
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
This post is reality challenged.FreeBaGeL said:
Couch Potato
Footballguy
F&L LIVES! Where ya been hiding buddy??(re his post, I was scratching my head when I read it too)
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Decompressing for a couple of months after nothing but football from August to February . . . plus I felt like I needed a break from all of the
on this board.I see Boldin as being similar in value to Ocho Cinco. They are both guys who have likely seen there best days already, but are still good for WR2 numbers for now.As for younger players with similar value, I'd imagine Kenny Britt are likely in the same tier as Boldin, he'll produce less this year, but he is obviously trending in the other direction than Boldin in my opinion.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I'd say Ocho Cinco is close, but he has an obvious edge in staying healthy. Considering the 8-year difference in ages, I wouldn't give up Britt for Boldin in a true Dynasty league. I'd probably have Boldin around 20-28 right now, falling behind Ocho Cinco, Mike Sims-Walker, and Britt. Boldin just has too much uncertainty right now, which is troublesome for a player exiting his prime.travdogg said:
I don't think ranking a guy as a top 5-6 dynasty WR qualifies as "giving up on him".
I dont think he was basing his "giving up on him" on where you have him ranked, but the fact that you traded him away.
Trading someone away doesn't count on giving up on him, either. It means you value the package you got in return more than the package you gave up.
Example: Let's say that I think that Chris Johnson is the #1 dynasty player by a huge margin. Let's say someone else offers me Adrian Peterson, MJD, Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Aaron Rodgers, and Antonio Gates for Chris Johnson. If I accept that deal, does that mean that I've "given up" on Chris Johnson? Or does it mean that, no matter how highly I value Chris Johnson, I realize that Peterson/MJD/Fitz/AJ/Rodgers are all very valuable fantasy players and that a package of very valuable assets can present more value than a single asset which would be more valuable on its own?
Example #2: Let's say that EBF thinks that Calvin is fantasy WR5 in dynasty. Let's say that EBF thinks that Crabtree is WR8. Let's say someone offers EBF Crabtree, the #1 overall, and a late first for Calvin (not saying that's the package he received, I'm just giving a "for instance"). If EBF takes that package, it's not that he's "giving up" on Calvin as much as it is that he's "buying in" on Crabtree and Dez Bryant.
Also, I don't get why everyone thinks it's so crazy for EBF to be so high on Crabtree. Weren't we just discussing how EBF had Calvin in his top 10 after his rookie year? And now we're going to turn around and think he's crazy for putting Michael Crabtree in his top 10 after his rookie year, especially when Crabtree is another uber-uber legit prospect (top 10 draft pick and unbelievable college pedigree) and Crabtree had an even more impressive rookie year than Calvin. As a rookie, Calvin went for 50 ypg on the 9th best passing offense in the league. Crabtree went for 56 ypg on the 22nd best passing offense in the league. You'd think all those Calvin owners who think that EBF is jumping the gun in rating Crabtree that highly would have learned their lesson already; what's good for the goose is good for the gander. I don't personally have Crabtree in my top 10, but I also don't think it's an odd position or the slightest bit of a stretch.
I agree with you, as a matter of fact, Chris Johnson is my #1 RB(like everyone else) but i recently traded him because i think his value will never be higher. My problem with trading Calvin right now is his value is likely as low as it will ever be, not the best time to trade any player if you ask me. I dont have a problem with Crabtree either, he isnt in my top 10, but i do like his potential to be there one day. EBF never did say what two picks he got in return, but if at least one of them is not a top 6-8 pick, i think he sold too low on Johnson, even if Crabtree ends up as a top 10 WR. Fact is, CJs perceived value right now is a top 3 WR and Crabtrees is somewhere in the 12-18 range, so any trade that doesnt reflect that is a bad deal for the person getting Crabtree.
You can't make a statement like the bolded unless you are in EBF's league. When it comes down to making a specific trade in a specific league, the market value of the players involved is irrelevant... all that is relevant is how the owners involved in the trade perceive them.
I totally disagree with this, but i guess everyone has their own way of running their dynasty teams though. Theres my way, and then a bunch of wrong ways.
I dont think he was basing his "giving up on him" on where you have him ranked, but the fact that you traded him away.
Trading someone away doesn't count on giving up on him, either. It means you value the package you got in return more than the package you gave up.
Example: Let's say that I think that Chris Johnson is the #1 dynasty player by a huge margin. Let's say someone else offers me Adrian Peterson, MJD, Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Aaron Rodgers, and Antonio Gates for Chris Johnson. If I accept that deal, does that mean that I've "given up" on Chris Johnson? Or does it mean that, no matter how highly I value Chris Johnson, I realize that Peterson/MJD/Fitz/AJ/Rodgers are all very valuable fantasy players and that a package of very valuable assets can present more value than a single asset which would be more valuable on its own?
Example #2: Let's say that EBF thinks that Calvin is fantasy WR5 in dynasty. Let's say that EBF thinks that Crabtree is WR8. Let's say someone offers EBF Crabtree, the #1 overall, and a late first for Calvin (not saying that's the package he received, I'm just giving a "for instance"). If EBF takes that package, it's not that he's "giving up" on Calvin as much as it is that he's "buying in" on Crabtree and Dez Bryant.
Also, I don't get why everyone thinks it's so crazy for EBF to be so high on Crabtree. Weren't we just discussing how EBF had Calvin in his top 10 after his rookie year? And now we're going to turn around and think he's crazy for putting Michael Crabtree in his top 10 after his rookie year, especially when Crabtree is another uber-uber legit prospect (top 10 draft pick and unbelievable college pedigree) and Crabtree had an even more impressive rookie year than Calvin. As a rookie, Calvin went for 50 ypg on the 9th best passing offense in the league. Crabtree went for 56 ypg on the 22nd best passing offense in the league. You'd think all those Calvin owners who think that EBF is jumping the gun in rating Crabtree that highly would have learned their lesson already; what's good for the goose is good for the gander. I don't personally have Crabtree in my top 10, but I also don't think it's an odd position or the slightest bit of a stretch.
I agree with you, as a matter of fact, Chris Johnson is my #1 RB(like everyone else) but i recently traded him because i think his value will never be higher. My problem with trading Calvin right now is his value is likely as low as it will ever be, not the best time to trade any player if you ask me. I dont have a problem with Crabtree either, he isnt in my top 10, but i do like his potential to be there one day. EBF never did say what two picks he got in return, but if at least one of them is not a top 6-8 pick, i think he sold too low on Johnson, even if Crabtree ends up as a top 10 WR. Fact is, CJs perceived value right now is a top 3 WR and Crabtrees is somewhere in the 12-18 range, so any trade that doesnt reflect that is a bad deal for the person getting Crabtree.
You can't make a statement like the bolded unless you are in EBF's league. When it comes down to making a specific trade in a specific league, the market value of the players involved is irrelevant... all that is relevant is how the owners involved in the trade perceive them.
I totally disagree with this, but i guess everyone has their own way of running their dynasty teams though. Theres my way, and then a bunch of wrong ways.
renesauz
IBL Representative
Not sure I agree with this part. He's still 29 and his game is NOT predicated on speed. WR's with his type of skillset are generally still very effective for another 3-4 seasons.I can see knocking him down for injury concerns and/or the move to Baltimore, but not because "he's left /leaving his prime".
IMHO, Boldin is a tad under-rated by most at this point...a nice time to buy. I can see him putting up several seasons of top 10-12 numbers in Baltimore as their #1. He has ranked among the games best in PPG while playing with Fitzgerald........
Im feel like the only way this trade will hurt me is if CJ goes for 2000 total yards and 15 TD's for the next 5-6 years. It is possible, he is certainly talented enough to do so, but if i have learned anything in FF, its thats RB's are not very dependable, especially for the long haul.
Tau837
Footballguy
If EBF wanted to construct a trade around Calvin Johnson and Crabtree, market value doesn't matter. What matters is how the other owner values Calvin and Crabtree. If the other owner views them differently than the "market", it is his view that will dictate whether or not he will make a deal that EBF is happy with... not the market view.It would be different if EBF simply decided to go find the best deal he could get by trading Calvin, since in that case he is shopping him to "the market".I totally disagree with this, but i guess everyone has their own way of running their dynasty teams though. Theres my way, and then a bunch of wrong ways.
Are you saying you disagree with this? If so, I'm interested to know how you convince other owners that their views are wrong and the market views are right.
Tau837
Footballguy
A trade like this depends on league parameters (scoring, lineups), the rest of the rosters involved, how the draft picks turn out, and who the throw-ins were... that said, I wouldn't make that deal based on what you've presented here.
Not true, if one of the owners in his league loved CJ, and was willing to pay/overpay to get him then EBF might have been smart to get as much out of him as he could. At that point he could have pursued Crabtree. Maybe he tried that, or didnt feel like putting in the work, but to say preceived value doesnt matter is short sighted.If EBF wanted to construct a trade around Calvin Johnson and Crabtree, market value doesn't matter. What matters is how the other owner values Calvin and Crabtree. If the other owner views them differently than the "market", it is his view that will dictate whether or not he will make a deal that EBF is happy with... not the market view.It would be different if EBF simply decided to go find the best deal he could get by trading Calvin, since in that case he is shopping him to "the market".I totally disagree with this, but i guess everyone has their own way of running their dynasty teams though. Theres my way, and then a bunch of wrong ways.
Are you saying you disagree with this? If so, I'm interested to know how you convince other owners that their views are wrong and the market views are right.
Sorry for the confusion, but i wasnt asking if people liked the trade or not. I was just trying to discuss player value.
Tau837
Footballguy
No confusion here. I understood that I was giving my unsolicited opinion.
I don't think you got market value for Chris Johnson. 
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
By "left/leaving his prime," I'm saying his best fantasy seasons are behind him. I can't see him finishing in the Top-8 in total fantasy points by a WR (which he has done 3 times to date) or match his No. 1 finish in points per game from 2008. That's just my opinion. I think he's past that prime and will no longer be feasting on the lack of coverage that Larry Fitzgerald provided. In addition to being past his fantasy football prime (in my opinion), he also can't be counted on for a full season anymore because he's constantly banged up. He's a great pickup for the Ravens, but I don't think he's a great pickup for Dynasty leaguers.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I think his move to Baltimore is a reason to upgrade, not downgrade. Flacco really needs a #1. I trust Flacco more than I do Palmer, Garrard, and VY (since F&L mentioned 85, MSW, and Britt as comparables). Boldin's playing style is pretty rough though. His game is not built on speed, but the toll his body has taken and likely will continue to take is still going to carry him over the cliff soon. If I'm buying, I'm hoping for a 2 year window where he becomes a low #1. Anything more than that is gravy. And with such a small window, one big injury becomes devastating to his value.I think it's a good time for buyers and sellers. If you are competing, he's a pretty cheap option who could deliver #1 WR numbers. If you have depth at WR or are rebuilding, he has enough value to get something worthwhile in return. I could see him being traded for 1.5 through 1.8 in PPR and being worth it for both sides.
When i offered up CJ, i didnt really think i would trade him unless i got an offer that knocked my socks off. So it fair to say i think i got more than market value. Like i said though, it was almost a two part deal. So it looked something like this:Chris JohnsonMarques ColstonforCalvin JohnsonDesean JacksonJermichael Finley1.1, 1.7No confusion here. I understood that I was giving my unsolicited opinion.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Inherent in the definition of a No. 1 at any position in fantasy football -- especially Dynasty leagues -- is reliability. Boldin no longer has the reliability to be considered a No. 1.
Tau837
Footballguy
The second deal certainly made up ground... I'd rather have Calvin than Colston and I'd rather have Finley than Davis, so that was a great trade IMO.If you end up getting 5 starters out of this, you'll come out ahead; if both 1.1 and 1.7 don't become useful starters, it could go the other way IMO. I think it's very possible that Chris Johnson, Colston, and two other players could easily outscore Calvin, Jackson, Finley, and 1.1 for the next few years.When i offered up CJ, i didnt really think i would trade him unless i got an offer that knocked my socks off. So it fair to say i think i got more than market value. Like i said though, it was almost a two part deal. So it looked something like this:Chris JohnsonMarques ColstonforCalvin JohnsonDesean JacksonJermichael Finley1.1, 1.7No confusion here. I understood that I was giving my unsolicited opinion.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
There is a difference between having #1 WR value and delivering #1 WR numbers. I am talking about the latter. Joseph Addai, Thomas Jones, and Ryan Grant all delivered #1 RB numbers last year. They are #2 or #3 RBs on most rosters.I agree Boldin is valued at around WR20 to 28. He is a low #2 that could/should perform like a #1 when healthy. Most leagues I am always looking to win now, and with that in mind he's a more attractive purchase than most of the other guys in that tier.
Can we depend on MSW to stay healthy and not repeat the slump he ended the year with? Can we depend on Bowe to show up? Can we depend on the younger players like Britt, Nicks, and Maclin to help with any consistency this year? Those seem like bigger gambles than Boldin playing 12 to 15 games and being around WR12 in PPG.
I would also expect Boldin to be cheaper based on most owners continued pursuit for youth. I'd rather pin my hopes to Moss or Smith South, but would expect them to be more expensive.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Fair enough. We're on the same page here.
SSOG
Moderator
Who says Calvin's value will never be lower? As this thread has evidenced, there are plenty of owners out there who still value him as the #3, #2, or even #1 dynasty WR. You don't think his value will ever be lower than a top 3 dynasty WR? I think there's a distinct possibility. If he has a mediocre year next year, it's all but a certainty that his value will be lower next offseason than it is right now. If Stafford fails to improve, Calvin's value will fall. Just because Calvin's value is lower now than it was a year ago (and, honestly, I don't think his value is any lower now than it was a year ago) doesn't mean that his value won't be lower still next season.
SSOG
Moderator
If that's what it took, then yeah. I mean, I'd say you should hold out for more value, but at the end of the day, if the Felix owner draws a line in the sand and says he'll only do the trade if it's a straight-up swap, and if you have a crystal ball that tells you for certain that Felix will be a better asset than CJ, then YES, you should do that trade.If I owned Chris Johnson, and I knew that Ryan Torain was going to go for 3,000 total yards and 30 TDs every year for the next 8 years, then I would trade Chris Johnson for Ryan Torain straight up, and I'd throw in 3 first rounders if that's what it took to seal the deal. That would probably get me made fun of by my leaguemates, but my league doesn't offer any points for making trades that my peers approve of, or cost me any points for making trades that get me ridiculed.
At the end of the day, the name of the game is scoring more points than the other guy. Every move should be made with that in mind. If the only way for me to make a trade that will radically increase my point output is by "overpaying" or "selling low", then you bet your butt I'm going to overpay and sell low all day long.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I wish I had recorded all the Lions games I watched this year so I could make a montage of it. People really saw what they wanted to see with Calvin this year. This notion that he was triple covered all year long is ridiculous. Calvin had a LOT of chances to make plays this year. But he didn't. Heck, just go back to the threads about Calvin throughout the season. Every game there were people saying "well he almost caught this pass that would have been a big TD which would have given him a good day" or "he missed getting that foot down in bounds by like 2 inches or else his day would have looked pretty good". A lot of those "almosts" are plays that a guy who's perceived as such a talent should be making on a regular basis, and he simply wasn't.Fear & Loathing said:
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Bingo. And not even necessarily "great" plays, just "not easy" plays.Aside from the 8 drops (which is high for the number of receptions he had), there were a lot of balls that he got his hands on that weren't easy catches, that don't go down as drops, but that a guy who had the football skills that people claim Calvin does would make consistently. There were also a good deal of plays (many in the endzone) where his defender was lost and not playing the ball, while Calvin was, and he did not make the play. The type of play you see a guy like Fitzgerald make on a regular basis. He just vacuums up the ball when it's near him as if it's sticking to his hands. Calvin relies much more on just getting open with his pure athletic ability. Aside from a couple highlight plays a year, he really doesn't catch many balls with his hands in traffic.Just Win Baby said:
People have this idea of a perfect receiver with Calvin. The height and speed of Moss, the thickness of Owens, and the ball skills of Fitzgerald. But the latter is where things really fall apart. His hands are mediocre. His ability to attack the ball in the air is miles behind a guy like Fitzgerald, as is his ability to make plays in traffic.
I have no reason to hate Calvin, and if you'll look back I've also been a huge proponent of his (and followed the masses with blaming any issues he had on injuries and poor QB play). In fact, if you go back to last offseason you'll see me arguing several times that I thought he was the #1 dynasty receiver and would take him ahead of Fitzgerald both in dynasty and redraft. However, this year I finally got a chance to really watch his games consistently. Yes, I saw bad QB play. Yes, I saw injuries. But what stood out to me most was a guy who was had merely average to above average football skills alongside a god's physical ability.
That doesn't mean I'm saying Calvin is worthless and won't ever do anything, far from it. A good player in a hall of fame body is still a great player. But I do think his pure football ability is vastly overrated. If you gave Calvin an average player's body he would be a nobody. If you gave Fitzgerald an average player's body he would still be a great receiver. That is the difference in the two.
And honestly, I thought I was underestimating with saying Calvin left 5 TDs on the field last year. Like I said above, I wish I had recordings of the games.
And FWIW, I do still think he has the highest ceiling of any player out there.
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I think you are missing the point. Ill simplify it a bit. SSOG, you have Chris Johnson, and you also have a fully functionable crystal ball. After looking into said ball, you see Felix Jones having a more productive career(FF speaking) than Chris Johnson. Do you run to the Felix Jones owner and offer him Chris Johnson straight up for Felix Jones?If you answered "no" to this question, then you understand my point about perceived value.
If you answered "yes" to this question, then PM me and i will help better yourself as a dynasty league owner(free of charge of course).
I said Calvins value is likely(also bolded above) as low as it ever will be. Its not a fact, but I believe this because you couldnt touch Calvin over the last two years, not unless you wanted to severly overpay. Today, CJ seems to be widely available in trade, although im sure some people still value him as a top 3 WR. Sure, CJ might have a repeat of last year, and his value could fall a bit more, but i cant imagine things being worse for him in 2010 than they were last year.(injuries, rookie QB, no #2 WR, etc.) If all of a sudden you dont think he is talented anymore, sure, go ahead and trade him. However, it would have been better for you to notice his lack of talent last year when you could have received a kings ransom for him. Ill be sure to bump this post next year after CJ goes for 1300 and 10 TD's, and is impossible to trade for again.
His own coaches, who watch and analyze the film, have admitted as much.and just because a defensive player isn't blanketing Calvin does not mean he isn't covering him..Here's what happened last year, consistently.. The Lions would get down 7-14 points, and the Lions o-line was sooo bad, the defense would drop 7-8 and go with a 3-4 man rush, which would still get the job done!*&?!Calvin was being covered by the CB assigned to him, plus the safety consistently cheating (heavily) in his direction, along with a linebacker dropping back (farther than usual) covering the passing lane to Calvin, all converging onto him.It happened throughout the entire season.
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Being tripled covered doesnt mean a player has 3 guys on him at the line of scrimmage. Im not making excuses for Calvin Johnson, he could have done better than he did last year. He could have made some plays he didnt, which i think was partly due to him being discouraged. Thats not an excuse either, as a professional football player has to tough those things out sometimes. However, its alot of pressure on a 25 year old kid to turn around a franchise that has been stuggling for many years. The Lions seem to be going in the right direction, and doing the things to help take some pressure off of him.
SSOG
Moderator
That's a red herring argument. EBF never said he ran to the Crabtree owner and offered Calvin for Crabtree and a couple of picks. For all we know, he might have started by asking for Crabtree, Colston, and a 1st rounder, or Crabtree, Sidney Rice, and a 1st rounder. We don't know how negotiations began, we only know how they ended.As I said, I would try to get more in addition to Felix, but at the end of the day, if the other owner drew a line in the sand and said "it's straight up or it's not at all", then I would do that trade straight up. I'm not the kind of guy who puts an INFERIOR team out there every week because I'm too worried about perceived value.I think you are missing the point. Ill simplify it a bit. SSOG, you have Chris Johnson, and you also have a fully functionable crystal ball. After looking into said ball, you see Felix Jones having a more productive career(FF speaking) than Chris Johnson. Do you run to the Felix Jones owner and offer him Chris Johnson straight up for Felix Jones?
If you answered "no" to this question, then you understand my point about perceived value.
If you answered "yes" to this question, then PM me and i will help better yourself as a dynasty league owner(free of charge of course).
Perceived value is useful, but at the end of the day, it's ACTUAL value that gets you wins and championships.
You seem to be operating under the assumption that, if thing get better for the Lions, Calvin's value will go up. If Calvin does better than he did this year, then his value will go up. I'm not buying that assumption at all.What happens if the Lions turn things around, become a respectable franchise, go 8-8, and Calvin posts 70/1200/7? Personally, I think his value would drop a lot, because suddenly Calvin is out of excuses. People have been slow to drop him because there are a lot of excuses out there for his poor production last year (very valid excuses, I might add)... but when those excuses dry up, people will be much more willing to re-evaluate. Calvin's built his value on the idea that he's a double-digit TD guy like Moss, Owens, Harrison, or Fitzgerald. After all, he certainly isn't a 100/1500 guy like Andre, or even a 100/1400 guy like Fitz. In his career year, he didn't even top 5 receptions a game. For comparison purposes, Fitz has topped 6.0 rpg in 4 of the past 5 years, and had 5.3 in the fifth. Andre has had 6.3+ r/g in each of the last 4 years. Those are guys you know are going to produce simply because of the sheer mind-numbing volume of receptions they're getting. Calvin's not that guy- he's the kind of guy that NEEDS obscene point-per-catch numbers to stay relevant against those two. That's all well and good when he's averaging 17 yards per reception and getting a TD every 6.5 catches, like he did his sophomore year... but if he isn't hitting those marks, then he's going to be overrated. And I think *ANYONE*, including Calvin, will have a tough time hitting those marks. I don't think his true mean is 17 ypr or a TD every 6.5 catches. I think it's probably closer to 16 ypr and a TD every 8 catches. And that 16 ypr true mean won't last for much longer- if you look at the history of deep threats, their ypr almost always drops dramatically after 3-4 years in the league. Moss had 19, 18, and 19 YPR in his first three seasons, then only topped 16 ypr once in the 9 years since. Which generally doesn't mean too much, because it generally accompanies a rise in total receptions to offset. Either way, I'm starting to ramble a bit.I said Calvins value is likely(also bolded above) as low as it ever will be. Its not a fact, but I believe this because you couldnt touch Calvin over the last two years, not unless you wanted to severly overpay. Today, CJ seems to be widely available in trade, although im sure some people still value him as a top 3 WR. Sure, CJ might have a repeat of last year, and his value could fall a bit more, but i cant imagine things being worse for him in 2010 than they were last year.(injuries, rookie QB, no #2 WR, etc.) If all of a sudden you dont think he is talented anymore, sure, go ahead and trade him. However, it would have been better for you to notice his lack of talent last year when you could have received a kings ransom for him.
Ill be sure to bump this post next year after CJ goes for 1300 and 10 TD's, and is impossible to trade for again.
Now, I'm well aware that Calvin is young and he could easily grow into the kind of guy who gets 5+ catches per game (although I doubt he'll ever become a 6 r/g kind of guy). If he does, then you'll wind up being right, and his value will never be lower than it is right now. I'm also aware that it's possible that he won't, and if he doesn't, then his value will drop over the next year until he (rightfully) finds himself mired in the Roddy/Austin/VJax/etc. tier. A lot of people are valuing him right now as if he's the next Randy Moss. Personally, I'm not sold. I think, when all is said and done, the only one of the current "big three" who will compare to the previous "big three" (Moss/Owens/Harrison) is Fitzgerald. I think Andre is getting too late of a start, and I'm not sold on the idea that Calvin will have the volume of opportunities necessary. I think the last "big 3" spoiled us a little bit when it comes to fantasy receiver production (all three of them have 6 200+ point seasons and 4 220+ point seasons), and we've started believing that that kind of career is Calvin's birthright. It's not.
I dont really disagree with most of what you are saying here. I dont think Calvin is a top 3 dynasty WR right now either. Which is also why i bring up his perceived value, because there are so many people who do. So any trade where you are not getting top 3 value for him seems to me to be leaving something on the table. If EBF likes Crabtree that much, and couldnt get better value for Calvin, i totally agree he should make that trade. Where i do disagree with you is that Calvin will never be a 5+ catch per game WR. You mentioned that you dont think the situation in Detroit has much to do with his production. You also said he can never be a 100 catch guy like Andre Johnson. Check out Andres reception totals with Carr and then compare that to his production with Schaub. I see no reason Calvin cant do something similar in Detroit if things fall into place for him like they did with Andre in Houston.That's a red herring argument. EBF never said he ran to the Crabtree owner and offered Calvin for Crabtree and a couple of picks. For all we know, he might have started by asking for Crabtree, Colston, and a 1st rounder, or Crabtree, Sidney Rice, and a 1st rounder. We don't know how negotiations began, we only know how they ended.As I said, I would try to get more in addition to Felix, but at the end of the day, if the other owner drew a line in the sand and said "it's straight up or it's not at all", then I would do that trade straight up. I'm not the kind of guy who puts an INFERIOR team out there every week because I'm too worried about perceived value.I think you are missing the point. Ill simplify it a bit. SSOG, you have Chris Johnson, and you also have a fully functionable crystal ball. After looking into said ball, you see Felix Jones having a more productive career(FF speaking) than Chris Johnson. Do you run to the Felix Jones owner and offer him Chris Johnson straight up for Felix Jones?
If you answered "no" to this question, then you understand my point about perceived value.
If you answered "yes" to this question, then PM me and i will help better yourself as a dynasty league owner(free of charge of course).
Perceived value is useful, but at the end of the day, it's ACTUAL value that gets you wins and championships.
You seem to be operating under the assumption that, if thing get better for the Lions, Calvin's value will go up. If Calvin does better than he did this year, then his value will go up. I'm not buying that assumption at all.What happens if the Lions turn things around, become a respectable franchise, go 8-8, and Calvin posts 70/1200/7? Personally, I think his value would drop a lot, because suddenly Calvin is out of excuses. People have been slow to drop him because there are a lot of excuses out there for his poor production last year (very valid excuses, I might add)... but when those excuses dry up, people will be much more willing to re-evaluate. Calvin's built his value on the idea that he's a double-digit TD guy like Moss, Owens, Harrison, or Fitzgerald. After all, he certainly isn't a 100/1500 guy like Andre, or even a 100/1400 guy like Fitz. In his career year, he didn't even top 5 receptions a game. For comparison purposes, Fitz has topped 6.0 rpg in 4 of the past 5 years, and had 5.3 in the fifth. Andre has had 6.3+ r/g in each of the last 4 years. Those are guys you know are going to produce simply because of the sheer mind-numbing volume of receptions they're getting. Calvin's not that guy- he's the kind of guy that NEEDS obscene point-per-catch numbers to stay relevant against those two. That's all well and good when he's averaging 17 yards per reception and getting a TD every 6.5 catches, like he did his sophomore year... but if he isn't hitting those marks, then he's going to be overrated. And I think *ANYONE*, including Calvin, will have a tough time hitting those marks. I don't think his true mean is 17 ypr or a TD every 6.5 catches. I think it's probably closer to 16 ypr and a TD every 8 catches. And that 16 ypr true mean won't last for much longer- if you look at the history of deep threats, their ypr almost always drops dramatically after 3-4 years in the league. Moss had 19, 18, and 19 YPR in his first three seasons, then only topped 16 ypr once in the 9 years since. Which generally doesn't mean too much, because it generally accompanies a rise in total receptions to offset. Either way, I'm starting to ramble a bit.I said Calvins value is likely(also bolded above) as low as it ever will be. Its not a fact, but I believe this because you couldnt touch Calvin over the last two years, not unless you wanted to severly overpay. Today, CJ seems to be widely available in trade, although im sure some people still value him as a top 3 WR. Sure, CJ might have a repeat of last year, and his value could fall a bit more, but i cant imagine things being worse for him in 2010 than they were last year.(injuries, rookie QB, no #2 WR, etc.) If all of a sudden you dont think he is talented anymore, sure, go ahead and trade him. However, it would have been better for you to notice his lack of talent last year when you could have received a kings ransom for him.
Ill be sure to bump this post next year after CJ goes for 1300 and 10 TD's, and is impossible to trade for again.
Now, I'm well aware that Calvin is young and he could easily grow into the kind of guy who gets 5+ catches per game (although I doubt he'll ever become a 6 r/g kind of guy). If he does, then you'll wind up being right, and his value will never be lower than it is right now. I'm also aware that it's possible that he won't, and if he doesn't, then his value will drop over the next year until he (rightfully) finds himself mired in the Roddy/Austin/VJax/etc. tier. A lot of people are valuing him right now as if he's the next Randy Moss. Personally, I'm not sold. I think, when all is said and done, the only one of the current "big three" who will compare to the previous "big three" (Moss/Owens/Harrison) is Fitzgerald. I think Andre is getting too late of a start, and I'm not sold on the idea that Calvin will have the volume of opportunities necessary. I think the last "big 3" spoiled us a little bit when it comes to fantasy receiver production (all three of them have 6 200+ point seasons and 4 220+ point seasons), and we've started believing that that kind of career is Calvin's birthright. It's not.
SSOG
Moderator
I said that Calvin could EASILY become a 5+ catch a game guy (80 receptions a year), but I doubted he'd be a 6 catch a game guy. IMO, he's not as good in traffic as Andre or Fitz. He's not as good of a possession receiver. Plus, I get the feeling that Detroit likes the way they're using him and wouldn't want to alter his usage patterns.As for Andre with David Carr... Andre put up 103/1147 with David Carr. That's 6.4 r/g. And, again, it comes down to usage patterns. Houston doesn't send Andre deep as much as Detroit sends Calvin deep. Calvin could possibly one day be the kind of guy that routinely threatens 100 catches, but if I were a betting man, I wouldn't bet on it.
To get back to the Randy Moss comparison... Randy averages 5.0 receptions per game for his career. He's had 5+ r/g in 6 of his 12 seasons (6+ in 3)... but on the flipside, that means he's averaged fewer than 5 catches per game in half of his seasons (including one year under 4 r/g in Minnesota and 2 years under 4 r/g in Oakland). That's all well and good for Randy, because his per-touch production is really untouchable. The dude averages 13 TDs per 16 games for his career. ON AVERAGE. He's had double digit TDs in 9 of 12 seasons, including 13+ in 6 of his 12 seasons. If Calvin becomes that kind of a TD threat, then he will absolutely justify every single positive thing ever written about him and any ranking people might give him. If he doesn't... well, then, he won't. Seeing how Calvin's currently averaging 7.5 TDs per 16 games, and how he's only topped 10 TDs once (and that time was "only" 12 scores), well, there's a lot of risk right now in ranking him as if he's the second coming of Randy Moss. There's a lot of room for Calvin to fail to live up to those expectations.
Taking SSOG’s assumptions in bold, this is one of the reasons why Calvin’s value is justified at where it is now (i.e., top 3). Even with a so so 2010, Calvin will still, at worst, likely be mired in the Roddy/Austin/VJax tier. Because of his age and freakish measurables, his value will always be given a bump over his true numbers (until of course he gets into his late 20s when his age will no longer be such a plus). As such, he carries a much lower risk than do the likes of Roddy/Austin/Vjax, each of whom, after similar sub-par years, would fall out of the second tier altogether. For that reason alone, he should be valued at a higher tier than those three players. I would assume that if Calvin put up 80/1200/10 in 2010 (a very good but not spectacular year), he would again be considered the #1 WR in dynasty in 2011 (because he would still be so young and everyone would assume he is back on the upward path to greatness), while Roddy getting the same numbers would still be where he is now (or lower due to age concerns). It won’t take a 96 reception year to keep Calvin at his current level. Then again, if he does reach 96, his value will be higher than it is today and perhaps higher than it was last year (where he was considered by many the #1 player in all of dynasty).SSOG said:
Will Calvin fulfill his long term upside of Randy Moss? I don’t know. But my point is that he doesn’t have to in order to justify his value today and, as of now and for the next few years, Calvin is one of the safest players in which to invest (one with limited short term downside and extreme upside).
Couch Potato
Footballguy
Regarding Calvin's 2009 stats, let's keep in mind he was injured early in week 5 and only had one target, then missed 2 more games after that. If we prorate his other 13 games (even including his week 9 return when he was still not 100% and only had 2-27), his stats would be 81-1209-6. TDs of course are variable.
And that's with the aforementioned problems with QB and OL play, extra coverage and no WR to take pressure off. If healthy, I see that stat line as his absolute floor for the next several years, and he'll be just 24 when the 2010 season begins. He's doing most of it now on pure natural ability. In coming years he'll develop chemistry with Stafford and he'll also become a better WR technically.
And that's with the aforementioned problems with QB and OL play, extra coverage and no WR to take pressure off. If healthy, I see that stat line as his absolute floor for the next several years, and he'll be just 24 when the 2010 season begins. He's doing most of it now on pure natural ability. In coming years he'll develop chemistry with Stafford and he'll also become a better WR technically.
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DoubleG
Footballguy
In regards to you first paragraph - I do agree that in general Calvin is given a "pass" in seasons where he has produced good but not great numbers. In large part because of the fact that he has the potential to put up better numbers. The flaw in that thinking is that for every year he doesn't live up to that elite potential (i.e. his actual numbers are less than his projected/expected numbers) his value slips even more, as many begin to realize what SSOG has already stated - Calvin's "elite" WR status is not a given. Which is the issue I have with your point in the 2nd paragraph. Having a very good year that places him in the WR8-WR12 range would not raise his value. It may keep it just about the same - which is to say a WR1 dynasty prospect, but not a shoe-in top 3. I also disagree with the a subpar year from Roddy dropping him out of that tier. Over the past 3 years, Roddy White has averaged almost the exact numbers you were stating would be a very good year for Calvin (actually it's 88/1246/8 - eith the TDs being 6, 7 & 11 in order the last three years). The point is Roddy has been much more consistant than Calvin. As such a subpar year from Roddy in 2010 hurts his value much less than another subar year from Calvin would hurt his. Austin and VJax are a different point. They haven't "proven" it to the same extent White has.
Calvin will be 25 as the season starts in 2010. He has 3 years in - one in which he put up numbers even close to what many expected. If someone valued him as a top 3 dynasty WR, I beleive I would be selling, not buying.
How many 80 catch seasons did Andre have in his first 3 season with David Carr and a bad Houston team? Im sure you would have been saying the same thing about Andre Johnson after his 3rd season as your saying about Calvin now. You may rely too much on statistics, have you watched Calvin play much?SSOG said:
wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
how many years does a guy have to be top 5 to become a consensus?
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Michael Fox Fan
Footballguy
Yep. His season-high (in the 1st three years) was 79 catches in year 2. He also didn't have more than 6 TDs in a season until year 5, and has never had double-digit TDs. Fortunately for his owners, the Texans now force-feed him the ball, 2 seasons in a row of over 100 catches and 1500 yds.
wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
im not sure this is a fair comparison because your not taking jennings stats from his rookie year
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
All the stats really say is Calvin hasn't realized the potential everyone sees in him. Whether he was slightly better or worse than Jennings over the last few years is not the focus here. People will continue to pay high premiums for him, and I'm one of those people. It's like "Let's Make a Deal". If you win a $5000 trip to Europe in the first part of the game, at the end of the game they ask you if you want to turn the prize back in for a chance at the Big Deal of the Day. 99% of the people will gladly turn the trip back in. Even if they get the worst prize, it's still almost as good as the trip to Europe. Maybe it's furniture or a washer/dryer, but there's no Zonks in the final game. I would give up Jennings (or Roddy or VJax) + parts to get Calvin because I know the worst case scenario is he's a WR1 who puts up the same stats as those guys for slightly longer. The best case scenario is domination, even if that's the prize behind only 1 of the 3 doors.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
This is exactly what happened. I'll choose to trust my own eyes plus the expanded game film that offensive coordinator Scott Linehan watched plus the observations of Tom Kowalski, one of the best beat writers in the business, over FreeBaGeL's casual viewing of Lions games.
