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Dynasty Rankings (13 Viewers)

shader said:
I mean look at the first round rookies from last year. Do they all hold equal value as they did last year? I'd say that every first round rookie has less value than a year ago, aside from maybe Percy Harvin, and possibly Britt and Nicks. Heyward-Bay, Crabtree, Maclin...these were the first three rookies chosen. I know there's no way their value is HIGHER now than it was a year ago.
Click to expand...
Beanie WellsLeSean McCoy

Michael Crabtree

Hakeem Nicks

Jeremy Maclin

Percy Harvin

Kenny Britt

Shonn Greene

Matt Stafford

Mark Sanchez

Have you tried to acquire any of these guys lately? Their price tags are sky high because everyone who owns them thinks they've got the next Ray Rice or Chad Johnson (because we all know none of these guys will end up like Laurence Maroney and Rod Gardner :unsure: ).

All of them are going higher in drafts than they were last year. Moreno is going about where he was a year ago even though he had a pretty ho-hum season. Ditto Donald Brown. DHB and Pettigrew are the only first round picks who have tumbled at all and Pettigrew is only in that category because he tore his ACL.

I disagree with the sentiment of your post. If anything, rookie values go UP once these guys get on the field and show any signs of potential. It's one of the most reliable phenomena in dynasty leagues. Call it the Laurence Maroney/Julius Jones/Reggie Bush effect.

The smart people aren't going to sell low on Dez if he goes for 50 catches and 600 yards next season, just like they're not selling low on Crabtree. If you want him for your team, you'll probably have to make your move now because I don't see the price tag dropping much.

 
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EBF said:
shader said:
I mean look at the first round rookies from last year. Do they all hold equal value as they did last year? I'd say that every first round rookie has less value than a year ago, aside from maybe Percy Harvin, and possibly Britt and Nicks. Heyward-Bay, Crabtree, Maclin...these were the first three rookies chosen. I know there's no way their value is HIGHER now than it was a year ago.
Click to expand...
Beanie WellsLeSean McCoy

Michael Crabtree

Hakeem Nicks

Jeremy Maclin

Percy Harvin

Kenny Britt

Shonn Greene

Matt Stafford

Mark Sanchez

Have you tried to acquire any of these guys lately? Their price tags are sky high because everyone who owns them thinks they've got the next Ray Rice or Chad Johnson (because we all know none of these guys will end up like Laurence Maroney and Rod Gardner :unsure: ).

All of them are going higher in drafts than they were last year. Moreno is going about where he was a year ago even though he had a pretty ho-hum season. Ditto Donald Brown. DHB and Pettigrew are the only first round picks who have tumbled at all and Pettigrew is only in that category because he tore his ACL.

I disagree with the sentiment of your post. If anything, rookie values go UP once these guys get on the field and show any signs of potential. It's one of the most reliable phenomena in dynasty leagues. Call it the Laurence Maroney/Julius Jones/Reggie Bush effect.

The smart people aren't going to sell low on Dez if he goes for 50 catches and 600 yards next season, just like they're not selling low on Crabtree. If you want him for your team, you'll probably have to make your move now because I don't see the price tag dropping much.
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:coffee: If you want Dez on your team, you had better get him before he ever steps foot on the field for an NFL game.

 
EBF said:
shader said:
I mean look at the first round rookies from last year. Do they all hold equal value as they did last year? I'd say that every first round rookie has less value than a year ago, aside from maybe Percy Harvin, and possibly Britt and Nicks. Heyward-Bay, Crabtree, Maclin...these were the first three rookies chosen. I know there's no way their value is HIGHER now than it was a year ago.
Click to expand...
Beanie WellsLeSean McCoy

Michael Crabtree

Hakeem Nicks

Jeremy Maclin

Percy Harvin

Kenny Britt

Shonn Greene

Matt Stafford

Mark Sanchez

Have you tried to acquire any of these guys lately? Their price tags are sky high because everyone who owns them thinks they've got the next Ray Rice or Chad Johnson (because we all know none of these guys will end up like Laurence Maroney and Rod Gardner :coffee: ).

All of them are going higher in drafts than they were last year. Moreno is going about where he was a year ago even though he had a pretty ho-hum season. Ditto Donald Brown. DHB and Pettigrew are the only first round picks who have tumbled at all and Pettigrew is only in that category because he tore his ACL.

I disagree with the sentiment of your post. If anything, rookie values go UP once these guys get on the field and show any signs of potential. It's one of the most reliable phenomena in dynasty leagues. Call it the Laurence Maroney/Julius Jones/Reggie Bush effect.

The smart people aren't going to sell low on Dez if he goes for 50 catches and 600 yards next season, just like they're not selling low on Crabtree. If you want him for your team, you'll probably have to make your move now because I don't see the price tag dropping much.
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I keep having Sanchez offered to me in my various leagues. All of his owners seem to be pushing pretty hard to sell him. I wish I could get excited about him because he actually is going relatively cheap in my leagues.
 
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tonka said:
Too early to say who the hype train guy is this year? Are Bryant and Best too obvious to be the guy?
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I'd imagine Ryan Mathews is the "obvious" one, but I :goodposting: Bryant and Best.I'd say leading up to the draft in April most people had it 1. Spiller 2. Mathews 3. Bryant 4. Best.
 
EBF said:
shader said:
I mean look at the first round rookies from last year. Do they all hold equal value as they did last year? I'd say that every first round rookie has less value than a year ago, aside from maybe Percy Harvin, and possibly Britt and Nicks. Heyward-Bay, Crabtree, Maclin...these were the first three rookies chosen. I know there's no way their value is HIGHER now than it was a year ago.
Click to expand...
Beanie WellsLeSean McCoy

Michael Crabtree

Hakeem Nicks

Jeremy Maclin

Percy Harvin

Kenny Britt

Shonn Greene

Matt Stafford

Mark Sanchez

Have you tried to acquire any of these guys lately? Their price tags are sky high because everyone who owns them thinks they've got the next Ray Rice or Chad Johnson (because we all know none of these guys will end up like Laurence Maroney and Rod Gardner :( ).

All of them are going higher in drafts than they were last year. Moreno is going about where he was a year ago even though he had a pretty ho-hum season. Ditto Donald Brown. DHB and Pettigrew are the only first round picks who have tumbled at all and Pettigrew is only in that category because he tore his ACL.

I disagree with the sentiment of your post. If anything, rookie values go UP once these guys get on the field and show any signs of potential. It's one of the most reliable phenomena in dynasty leagues. Call it the Laurence Maroney/Julius Jones/Reggie Bush effect.

The smart people aren't going to sell low on Dez if he goes for 50 catches and 600 yards next season, just like they're not selling low on Crabtree. If you want him for your team, you'll probably have to make your move now because I don't see the price tag dropping much.
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I agree with most of your list except for McCoy, Moreno & Donald Brown's trade value which have definitely declined from where they were a year ago. A quick look at the dynasty trades thread will confirm that. Maybe not precepitously, but their value is definitely lower. Even Crabtree, while his value is still high, is no longer untouchable in some leagues. I've actually been able to trade for him whereas he was calvin-esque untouchable this time last year. The hold-out definitely caused his value to decline a slight bit.By contrast: Wells, Harvin, Britt, Maclin, Greene & the QB's have all have increased. Nicks looks to be about the same to me.

 
Buckna said:
EBF said:
shader said:
I mean look at the first round rookies from last year. Do they all hold equal value as they did last year? I'd say that every first round rookie has less value than a year ago, aside from maybe Percy Harvin, and possibly Britt and Nicks. Heyward-Bay, Crabtree, Maclin...these were the first three rookies chosen. I know there's no way their value is HIGHER now than it was a year ago.
Click to expand...
Beanie WellsLeSean McCoy

Michael Crabtree

Hakeem Nicks

Jeremy Maclin

Percy Harvin

Kenny Britt

Shonn Greene

Matt Stafford

Mark Sanchez

Have you tried to acquire any of these guys lately? Their price tags are sky high because everyone who owns them thinks they've got the next Ray Rice or Chad Johnson (because we all know none of these guys will end up like Laurence Maroney and Rod Gardner :goodposting: ).

All of them are going higher in drafts than they were last year. Moreno is going about where he was a year ago even though he had a pretty ho-hum season. Ditto Donald Brown. DHB and Pettigrew are the only first round picks who have tumbled at all and Pettigrew is only in that category because he tore his ACL.

I disagree with the sentiment of your post. If anything, rookie values go UP once these guys get on the field and show any signs of potential. It's one of the most reliable phenomena in dynasty leagues. Call it the Laurence Maroney/Julius Jones/Reggie Bush effect.

The smart people aren't going to sell low on Dez if he goes for 50 catches and 600 yards next season, just like they're not selling low on Crabtree. If you want him for your team, you'll probably have to make your move now because I don't see the price tag dropping much.
Click to expand...
I agree with most of your list except for McCoy, Moreno & Donald Brown's trade value which have definitely declined from where they were a year ago. A quick look at the dynasty trades thread will confirm that. Maybe not precepitously, but their value is definitely lower. Even Crabtree, while his value is still high, is no longer untouchable in some leagues. I've actually been able to trade for him whereas he was calvin-esque untouchable this time last year. The hold-out definitely caused his value to decline a slight bit.By contrast: Wells, Harvin, Britt, Maclin, Greene & the QB's have all have increased. Nicks looks to be about the same to me.
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You think McCoy's value has gone down? :eek:

His startup ADP is about 10-15 spots higher than last year in the leagues I've looked at. Nothing has happened to cause a value drop since he played well enough as a rookie and Westbrook has since been released.

These guys were the consensus top 13 picks last year in some order:

Matt Stafford

Mark Sanchez

Knowshon Moreno

Donald Brown

Beanie Wells

LeSean McCoy

Shonn Greene

Darrius Heyward-Bey

Michael Crabtree

Jeremy Maclin

Percy Harvin

Hakeem Nicks

Kenny Britt

DHB is the only one to have suffered a precipitous value drop. Moreno and Brown didn't do much to generate excitement last season, but their values have only dipped very slightly. I was able to get the 1.03 for Knowshon in one league and the 1.04 in another. That's only slightly less than what I gave up to get him.

I don't think there's any weight to the argument that only a couple of these guys have paid dividends. Optimism for this crew is running at a fever pitch and I'm seeing these guys packaged for superstars in lots of leagues. Their values are very high and for almost every player on this list you can bet that there's someone in your league who thinks he's legit.

This class was exceptional because there were so many first round talents and virtually all of these guys looked anywhere from competent to excellent, but the excessive optimism for high-profile sophomores is hardly a new phenomenon. Reggie Bush, Joseph Addai, and Laurence Maroney were consensus top 10 dynasty RBs after their rookie seasons. Vince Young, Jay Cutler, and Matt Leinart were consensus top 10 dynasty QBs after their rookie seasons. Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, and Steven Jackson were consensus top 10 RBs after their rookie seasons.

This happens EVERY year in some form. Far from being risky investments, high-profile rookies are some of the safest commodities out there from a trade value standpoint because people will flip their wig for these players if they show ANY talent whatsoever as rookies.

 
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EBF said:
You think McCoy's value has gone down? :excited: His startup ADP is about 10-15 spots higher than last year in the leagues I've looked at. Nothing has happened to cause a value drop since he played well enough as a rookie and Westbrook has since been released. DHB is the only one to have suffered a precipitous value drop. Moreno and Brown didn't do much to generate excitement last season, but their values have only dipped very slightly. I was able to get the 1.03 for Knowshon in one league and the 1.04 in another. That's only slightly less than what I gave up to get him.
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I think I may have jumped in talking about oranges when you were talking about apples. Startup drafts have very different dynamics based on the draft philosphies of the teams involved. I don't think you can definitively state that one players draft position in year one vs his draft position in year 2 are purely a function of his performance in the year in between (except for maybe established top players.) There is a time value component in there as well, especially with rookies. Almost certainly some of McCoy's ADP rise is because you no longer have to wait a year for him to be the unquestioned starter. Something that was almost certainly factored into his ADP last year with Westbrook still on the roster and many teams in a startup draft being the "win now" type.I was talking about trade value in existing leagues instead of startups where almost certainly the guys I named have had a hit in trade value. Just check the dynasty trades thread, pretty much the only people that value McCoy as much as a top 4 rookie pick this year are the people that initially drafted him. There are numerous comments in the trade thread of where if someone actually did pay say the 1.03 for McCoy many posters thought they way overpaid. Moreno was pretty much the consensus #2 pick after Crabtree, it's going to be a rare league you will be able to swap him for the 1.2 this year. I've seen Brown traded for peanuts in multiple leagues. Relative to their peer draft class, almost certainly McCoy, Moreno & Brown have slid in value compared to Wells & Greene & Harvin & Maclin.
 
I agree on the holding value part EBF....I had a QB poor team in a league with bonuses for 300 yd. games and was able to trade Moreno & Palmer and a Late 3rd pick for Peyton Manning last night. I know many that don't "value" QB's would not have done it, but I watched Moreno last year and he represents a RB2 type in my opinion. Plus, the line has changed, they've lost Marshall who helped keep D's honest and their QB situation won't be keeping 8 out of the box any time soon.

I think all of the Rookie First RD last year has held or improved its value (trade wise - if not performance also in the case of the WR's & QB's) except for DHB of course.....

 
Dr. Octopus said:
SSOG said:
Christo said:
SSOG said:
Christo said:
This theory makes no sense. If there was something to it every team would put in their backup RB for the last few weeks of the season.
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That's not true at all. Chester Taylor with fresh legs can be substantially better than Chester Taylor with worn out legs without being better than Adrian Peterson with worn out legs.
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Even assuming you're right, the fact that you had to jump right to one of the few elite RBs in the game to try to disprove my point tells me I'm onto something.
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That's not true at all. Chester was just the first backup RB whose name came to mind. And I'm not trying to disprove your point, I was simply demonstrating that "an RB does better if fresh and playing against a tired defense than he does if he's tired and playing against a tired defense" is not impossible to reconcile with the fact that teams don't immediately switch to their backups in week 9. Chester/Peterson pretty handily demonstrates how easily those two ideas can coexist.Besides, those non-elite RBs that you'd rather I demonstrate the concept with are exactly the kind of backs that wind up losing their job halfway through the season, only to see their "fresh" backup come in and set the league on fire. Witness: Jamaal Charles and Jerome Harrison. See also: Justin Forsett and Tashard Choice. For further reading on "fresh" RBs who lit the league on fire late, see: Ricky Williams and Jonathan Stewart.
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don't forget Samkon Gado, William Green and many other forgetable backs. I don't think it means Choice isn't any good - because I don't beleive that, just that end of season stats can be deceiving.
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Pierre Thomas...you always have the same 2 people as examples, who are the many others?
 
WKTSWAY said:
Pierre Thomas...you always have the same 2 people as examples, who are the many others?
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Domanick Williams, Nick Goings, Ladell Betts, Chester Taylor, Marcel Shipp, Kevan Barlow, Justin Forsett. That's a short list of RBs that have not yet been mentioned who (a) were lightly used over the first half of the season and (b) scored at least 100 fantasy points from weeks 10 to 17. One hundred eleven RBs have reached that mark (100 points over the last 8 weeks) in the past 8 years, which works out to an average of 14 a year, so everyone on this list was a borderline fantasy RB1 *OR BETTER* over the last half of the season. And again, I'm excluding the players that have already been mentioned (e.g. William Green) and the players who met both criteria but later went on to become studs (e.g. Larry Johnson).
 
I was wondering what your view on Steve Smith (NYG) was? He had a great season last year but do you think that is about his peak? He's pretty young but can you see him perhaps surpassing those numbers at some point? Is he an upper echelon talent or was simply just the go to guy of the giants offense?

 
WKTSWAY said:
Pierre Thomas...you always have the same 2 people as examples, who are the many others?
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Most have already been mentioned in this discussion - but a few others that immediately come to mind: Julius Jones, Ladell Betts, Nick Goings, Marcell Shipp, Kevin Jones (I think he had talent though and injuries did him in) and I'm sure I'm forgetting many others.The point being is that sometimes these late season heroics end up being "flashes in the pan". There's someting logical about saying that a back with fresh legs at the end of the season has an advantage over tired beat up defenses.Now once again that's not saying that all backs that break out late in the season are destined to be waiver wire fodder - just that there is the risk that these "no-names" continue to be no names. Once again, as I said on a prior page, when a young highly drafted talented back like Jamaal Charles breask out over a four game stretch late in the season I take notice - but when a veteran mediocre back like a Jerome Harrison does it I proceed with caution.
 
On the topic of young quarterbacks...

I've been going over this in my head for weeks, actually months, and have managed to get my brain in a knot so that means I probably need to look for the opinions of people smarter than myself. Try to analyze the forecast for the three QBs of Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford , and Kevin Kolb over the next few years. I think I rank them Ryan, Stafford, then Kolb (risk factor plays heavily), but I typically record more misses than hits when I have over-thought these sort of things. To bring some other QBs in the same "range" in, probably would include Flacco in that group but I'm not sure where.

Thoughts?

And regarding DBowe from a few threads ago, as a Chiefs follower I do believe we will see an solid increase in his numbers. C Weiss will scheme up a way to consistently get him the ball I believe. I am holding (and buying). As well, the legitimate threat of a ground game late in the year (after LJ2.7 was gone) bought Cassel some more time to throw. Of course this all happened pretty much during DBowes suspension time. He didn't necessarily test positive for performance enhancing drugs, but rather a diuretic during training camp. Yes, it is used as a masking agent for PEDs, but what a lot of people don't realize is Haley was really on everyone in camp to lose weight for a better conditioned team. During August 09, the team combined lost hundreds upon hundreds of pounds. I do not believe DBowe was PED abusing.

 
Daniel Shirley said:
On the topic of young quarterbacks...

I've been going over this in my head for weeks, actually months, and have managed to get my brain in a knot so that means I probably need to look for the opinions of people smarter than myself. Try to analyze the forecast for the three QBs of Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford , and Kevin Kolb over the next few years. I think I rank them Ryan, Stafford, then Kolb (risk factor plays heavily), but I typically record more misses than hits when I have over-thought these sort of things. To bring some other QBs in the same "range" in, probably would include Flacco in that group but I'm not sure where.

Thoughts?

And regarding DBowe from a few threads ago, as a Chiefs follower I do believe we will see an solid increase in his numbers. C Weiss will scheme up a way to consistently get him the ball I believe. I am holding (and buying). As well, the legitimate threat of a ground game late in the year (after LJ2.7 was gone) bought Cassel some more time to throw. Of course this all happened pretty much during DBowes suspension time. He didn't necessarily test positive for performance enhancing drugs, but rather a diuretic during training camp. Yes, it is used as a masking agent for PEDs, but what a lot of people don't realize is Haley was really on everyone in camp to lose weight for a better conditioned team. During August 09, the team combined lost hundreds upon hundreds of pounds. I do not believe DBowe was PED abusing.
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This is what I see when comparing those 4...

Ceiling

Kolb

Stafford

Ryan

Flacco

Risk (highest to lowest)

Kolb

Stafford

Flacco

Ryan

So what does that tell me? If you are a shoot for the fences type guy, you shoot for Kolb. If he develops as some expect, he could be deadly. His entire offensive core around him is young and talented, and if things break right we could be looking at Rodgers in Green Bay type future. A little less risky with a still very high upside is Stafford. I think he has less risk because the Lions have so much invested in him as opposed to Kolb who is on a 1 year deal and has proven less in game action IMO. Stafford does not have the same talent around him that Kolb does, but Calvin Johnson and Jahvid Best is a nice offensive core. I expect Stafford to be a QB1, possibly this season and definitely by next year. Ryan and Flacco are rather interchangeable in my eyes. I don't see the huge upside that I see when looking at Kolb and Stafford, but I also don't see much chance of them falling flat on their faces. They have both been solid NFL starters their first two years, so they should only get better with experience. I just don't see them really ever reaching that elite QB level. So I don't think they will ever put you on their back and win you a league, but they won't be the reason you lose it either.

All that being said, my target would be Stafford. All things being equal I would go for Kolb, but its not equal. Kolb will likely cost you the price of a QB1 right now. For me that means I am paying for what he could be, without any discount for the significant risk involved. Stafford will likely be the cheapest of the 4 to acquire (unless you find someone like me who values him very highly), and I think offers the best combination of risk/reward.

 
The Real Hipster Doofus said:
Ceiling

Kolb

Stafford

Ryan

Flacco

Risk (highest to lowest)

Kolb

Stafford

Flacco

Ryan
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Well put, and an excellent analysis. Have to agree with all your points. I wanted to get a general discussion started on QBs from this group, since I think they represent the next "wave" of QBs to come through. However, it is selfishly related to my precarious situation, as I happen to have all three (less JF) rostered in a 16 team IDP keep 8. I'm going to be using two of them as trade chips for QB lacking squads, since I won't keep them anyway. But you know how it goes, want move the snicklefritts and keep the best for yourself...
 
Daniel Shirley said:
On the topic of young quarterbacks...I've been going over this in my head for weeks, actually months, and have managed to get my brain in a knot so that means I probably need to look for the opinions of people smarter than myself. Try to analyze the forecast for the three QBs of Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford , and Kevin Kolb over the next few years. I think I rank them Ryan, Stafford, then Kolb (risk factor plays heavily), but I typically record more misses than hits when I have over-thought these sort of things. To bring some other QBs in the same "range" in, probably would include Flacco in that group but I'm not sure where.Thoughts?And regarding DBowe from a few threads ago, as a Chiefs follower I do believe we will see an solid increase in his numbers. C Weiss will scheme up a way to consistently get him the ball I believe. I am holding (and buying). As well, the legitimate threat of a ground game late in the year (after LJ2.7 was gone) bought Cassel some more time to throw. Of course this all happened pretty much during DBowes suspension time. He didn't necessarily test positive for performance enhancing drugs, but rather a diuretic during training camp. Yes, it is used as a masking agent for PEDs, but what a lot of people don't realize is Haley was really on everyone in camp to lose weight for a better conditioned team. During August 09, the team combined lost hundreds upon hundreds of pounds. I do not believe DBowe was PED abusing.
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I think a lot of people are getting way ahead of themselves in evaluations of Kevin Kolb. Dude has made 2 starts. He was a 2nd round pick, which is a good pedigree, but its not like he was touted as a can't miss, top 10 pick. Basing evaluations on 2 games worth of data is dangerous. Ask the Bills about Rob Johnson.I have seen Matt Ryan, Flacco, and Stafford, and all of them looked like legit NFL starters for a long time. Personally, I would take any of them over Kolb in a heartbeat right now. Possible that my risk aversion will hurt me in the end, but until the guy shows me 8-10 quality starts, he is nowhere near the other guys IMO.RyanStaffordFlaccoKolb
 
ChuckLiddell said:
Daniel Shirley said:
On the topic of young quarterbacks...I've been going over this in my head for weeks, actually months, and have managed to get my brain in a knot so that means I probably need to look for the opinions of people smarter than myself. Try to analyze the forecast for the three QBs of Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford , and Kevin Kolb over the next few years. I think I rank them Ryan, Stafford, then Kolb (risk factor plays heavily), but I typically record more misses than hits when I have over-thought these sort of things. To bring some other QBs in the same "range" in, probably would include Flacco in that group but I'm not sure where.Thoughts?And regarding DBowe from a few threads ago, as a Chiefs follower I do believe we will see an solid increase in his numbers. C Weiss will scheme up a way to consistently get him the ball I believe. I am holding (and buying). As well, the legitimate threat of a ground game late in the year (after LJ2.7 was gone) bought Cassel some more time to throw. Of course this all happened pretty much during DBowes suspension time. He didn't necessarily test positive for performance enhancing drugs, but rather a diuretic during training camp. Yes, it is used as a masking agent for PEDs, but what a lot of people don't realize is Haley was really on everyone in camp to lose weight for a better conditioned team. During August 09, the team combined lost hundreds upon hundreds of pounds. I do not believe DBowe was PED abusing.
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I think a lot of people are getting way ahead of themselves in evaluations of Kevin Kolb. Dude has made 2 starts. He was a 2nd round pick, which is a good pedigree, but its not like he was touted as a can't miss, top 10 pick. Basing evaluations on 2 games worth of data is dangerous. Ask the Bills about Rob Johnson.I have seen Matt Ryan, Flacco, and Stafford, and all of them looked like legit NFL starters for a long time. Personally, I would take any of them over Kolb in a heartbeat right now. Possible that my risk aversion will hurt me in the end, but until the guy shows me 8-10 quality starts, he is nowhere near the other guys IMO.RyanStaffordFlaccoKolb
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I think Kolb's first NFL pass was an interception. He looked totally inept the first few times I saw him in a game, and I honestly never have had a great feeling about him. Maybe he has turned it around, but if someone offered me Ryan for Kolb I would trip over myself in a rush to click accept.
 
Fear & Loathing said:
tonka said:
Too early to say who the hype train guy is this year? Are Bryant and Best too obvious to be the guy?
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I'd imagine Ryan Mathews is the "obvious" one, but I :excited: Bryant and Best.I'd say leading up to the draft in April most people had it 1. Spiller 2. Mathews 3. Bryant 4. Best.
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So, assuming you have reasonable balance between RB and WR, what is your order for these three? (Your choice whether you want to do it PPR or non-PPR.)
 
PPR

Best/Bryant

Matthews

Spiller

NPPR

Best

Matthews/Bryant

Spiller

I can see a case being made for any of Matthews, Bryant or Best as the #1 pick in either format. I'm not a Spiller fan. I don't think he has the vision to be successful between the tackles, and he's not going to carry the pile. I actually just traded out of the 1.01 and moved down to 1.04. Best is my #1, so it made sense. Injury issues aside, which I think are overblown, the kid is a human highlight reel.

Edit: If I'm sitting in the 4th spot and Best, Matthews & Bryant are gone, then I'm trading down. I'd honestly rather draft Hardesty, Benn, and maybe a few others over Spiller.

 
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Spike said:
Fear & Loathing said:
tonka said:
Too early to say who the hype train guy is this year? Are Bryant and Best too obvious to be the guy?
Click to expand...
I'd imagine Ryan Mathews is the "obvious" one, but I :mellow: Bryant and Best.I'd say leading up to the draft in April most people had it 1. Spiller 2. Mathews 3. Bryant 4. Best.
Click to expand...
So, assuming you have reasonable balance between RB and WR, what is your order for these three? (Your choice whether you want to do it PPR or non-PPR.)
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Bryant, Mathews, Best, Spiller
 
thevidon said:
ChuckLiddell said:
Daniel Shirley said:
On the topic of young quarterbacks...I've been going over this in my head for weeks, actually months, and have managed to get my brain in a knot so that means I probably need to look for the opinions of people smarter than myself. Try to analyze the forecast for the three QBs of Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford , and Kevin Kolb over the next few years. I think I rank them Ryan, Stafford, then Kolb (risk factor plays heavily), but I typically record more misses than hits when I have over-thought these sort of things. To bring some other QBs in the same "range" in, probably would include Flacco in that group but I'm not sure where.Thoughts?And regarding DBowe from a few threads ago, as a Chiefs follower I do believe we will see an solid increase in his numbers. C Weiss will scheme up a way to consistently get him the ball I believe. I am holding (and buying). As well, the legitimate threat of a ground game late in the year (after LJ2.7 was gone) bought Cassel some more time to throw. Of course this all happened pretty much during DBowes suspension time. He didn't necessarily test positive for performance enhancing drugs, but rather a diuretic during training camp. Yes, it is used as a masking agent for PEDs, but what a lot of people don't realize is Haley was really on everyone in camp to lose weight for a better conditioned team. During August 09, the team combined lost hundreds upon hundreds of pounds. I do not believe DBowe was PED abusing.
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I think a lot of people are getting way ahead of themselves in evaluations of Kevin Kolb. Dude has made 2 starts. He was a 2nd round pick, which is a good pedigree, but its not like he was touted as a can't miss, top 10 pick. Basing evaluations on 2 games worth of data is dangerous. Ask the Bills about Rob Johnson.I have seen Matt Ryan, Flacco, and Stafford, and all of them looked like legit NFL starters for a long time. Personally, I would take any of them over Kolb in a heartbeat right now. Possible that my risk aversion will hurt me in the end, but until the guy shows me 8-10 quality starts, he is nowhere near the other guys IMO.RyanStaffordFlaccoKolb
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I think Kolb's first NFL pass was an interception. He looked totally inept the first few times I saw him in a game, and I honestly never have had a great feeling about him. Maybe he has turned it around, but if someone offered me Ryan for Kolb I would trip over myself in a rush to click accept.
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Kolb's first NFL pass was not an interception.
 
thevidon said:
I think Kolb's first NFL pass was an interception. He looked totally inept the first few times I saw him in a game, and I honestly never have had a great feeling about him. Maybe he has turned it around, but if someone offered me Ryan for Kolb I would trip over myself in a rush to click accept.
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Oh, well then, case closed.
 
Daniel Shirley said:
And regarding DBowe from a few threads ago, as a Chiefs follower I do believe we will see an solid increase in his numbers. C Weiss will scheme up a way to consistently get him the ball I believe. I am holding (and buying). As well, the legitimate threat of a ground game late in the year (after LJ2.7 was gone) bought Cassel some more time to throw. Of course this all happened pretty much during DBowes suspension time. He didn't necessarily test positive for performance enhancing drugs, but rather a diuretic during training camp. Yes, it is used as a masking agent for PEDs, but what a lot of people don't realize is Haley was really on everyone in camp to lose weight for a better conditioned team. During August 09, the team combined lost hundreds upon hundreds of pounds. I do not believe DBowe was PED abusing.
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Here's my thing about Dwayne Bowe- when he was ranked so high a couple of years ago, it's because people thought he was an elite talent. While he's still an incredibly talented receiver in a vacuum, when you compare him to his peers he hardly looks so elite anymore.If you were to rank Dwayne Bowe strictly on talent- not on situation, not on age, just purely on where you think his talent level rates over the next 3 years or so- where would you put him? Personally, I'd put him behind Fitz, Johnson, Johnson, VJax, Austin, White, Wayne, Desean, Colston, Rice, Marshall, Crabtree, and Harvin. I'd possibly put Randy, Smiff, Boldin, and Ochocinco in front of him (depending on how they age)... but even if those guys "age out" of their talent, I'd still put Bryant in front of him, and next year I suspect all three of the "big three" (Green, Jones, and Floyd) will wind up in front of him, too (so it's not like Bowe will be moving up the list any time soon). Jennings is probably on par with Bowe, but Jennings plays with Rogers, which is pretty much the definition of "the ideal situation". So, while Bowe is a very talented receiver, his talent only ranks him around 15th in the NFL, and I don't see him moving up the list any time soon. Throw in his worse-than-average situation and it's hard to justify putting Bowe much higher than the 16-20 range. Even if Bowe was in a great situation, I think he'd be hard-pressed to crack the top 12 in my rankings.

For what it's worth, this "absolute talent vs. relative talent" thing was my biggest pitfall with Lee Evans (the "bad process" that led to my "bad outcome"). Lee Evans is an incredibly talented receiver in an absolute sense. He's incredibly skilled. In a relative sense, though, there's so much WR talent in the league right now that Evans is just another guy. I kept valuing him highly because I was too busy watching how good Lee Evans was and not busy enough watching how good everyone else was, too.

 
SSOG said:
Here's my thing about Dwayne Bowe- when he was ranked so high a couple of years ago, it's because people thought he was an elite talent. While he's still an incredibly talented receiver in a vacuum, when you compare him to his peers he hardly looks so elite anymore.

If you were to rank Dwayne Bowe strictly on talent- not on situation, not on age, just purely on where you think his talent level rates over the next 3 years or so- where would you put him? Personally, I'd put him behind Fitz, Johnson, Johnson, VJax, Austin, White, Wayne, Desean, Colston, Rice, Marshall, Crabtree, and Harvin. I'd possibly put Randy, Smiff, Boldin, and Ochocinco in front of him (depending on how they age)... but even if those guys "age out" of their talent, I'd still put Bryant in front of him, and next year I suspect all three of the "big three" (Green, Jones, and Floyd) will wind up in front of him, too (so it's not like Bowe will be moving up the list any time soon). Jennings is probably on par with Bowe, but Jennings plays with Rogers, which is pretty much the definition of "the ideal situation". So, while Bowe is a very talented receiver, his talent only ranks him around 15th in the NFL, and I don't see him moving up the list any time soon. Throw in his worse-than-average situation and it's hard to justify putting Bowe much higher than the 16-20 range. Even if Bowe was in a great situation, I think he'd be hard-pressed to crack the top 12 in my rankings.

For what it's worth, this "absolute talent vs. relative talent" thing was my biggest pitfall with Lee Evans (the "bad process" that led to my "bad outcome"). Lee Evans is an incredibly talented receiver in an absolute sense. He's incredibly skilled. In a relative sense, though, there's so much WR talent in the league right now that Evans is just another guy. I kept valuing him highly because I was too busy watching how good Lee Evans was and not busy enough watching how good everyone else was, too.
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:goodposting: Very perceptive. Well said.

 
Fear & Loathing said:
SSOG said:
Here's my thing about Dwayne Bowe- when he was ranked so high a couple of years ago, it's because people thought he was an elite talent. While he's still an incredibly talented receiver in a vacuum, when you compare him to his peers he hardly looks so elite anymore.

If you were to rank Dwayne Bowe strictly on talent- not on situation, not on age, just purely on where you think his talent level rates over the next 3 years or so- where would you put him? Personally, I'd put him behind Fitz, Johnson, Johnson, VJax, Austin, White, Wayne, Desean, Colston, Rice, Marshall, Crabtree, and Harvin. I'd possibly put Randy, Smiff, Boldin, and Ochocinco in front of him (depending on how they age)... but even if those guys "age out" of their talent, I'd still put Bryant in front of him, and next year I suspect all three of the "big three" (Green, Jones, and Floyd) will wind up in front of him, too (so it's not like Bowe will be moving up the list any time soon). Jennings is probably on par with Bowe, but Jennings plays with Rogers, which is pretty much the definition of "the ideal situation". So, while Bowe is a very talented receiver, his talent only ranks him around 15th in the NFL, and I don't see him moving up the list any time soon. Throw in his worse-than-average situation and it's hard to justify putting Bowe much higher than the 16-20 range. Even if Bowe was in a great situation, I think he'd be hard-pressed to crack the top 12 in my rankings.

For what it's worth, this "absolute talent vs. relative talent" thing was my biggest pitfall with Lee Evans (the "bad process" that led to my "bad outcome"). Lee Evans is an incredibly talented receiver in an absolute sense. He's incredibly skilled. In a relative sense, though, there's so much WR talent in the league right now that Evans is just another guy. I kept valuing him highly because I was too busy watching how good Lee Evans was and not busy enough watching how good everyone else was, too.
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:lmao: Very perceptive. Well said.
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I also concur although I am not convinced that part of Bowe's early success wasn't drug induced.In terms of Evans, I NEVER thought when I drafted him in 2006 that in 2010 we would still be waiting for Buffalo to have a serviceable QB. In the end, however, I still think you need to rank talent first and situation second because situation can change so quickly. Just because it hasn't for Evans doesn't mean it won't for another player you are considering. Look at Oakland. With one relatively minor trade all the skill position players on their offense just took a big bump.

 
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SSOG said:
For what it's worth, this "absolute talent vs. relative talent" thing was my biggest pitfall with Lee Evans (the "bad process" that led to my "bad outcome"). Lee Evans is an incredibly talented receiver in an absolute sense. He's incredibly skilled. In a relative sense, though, there's so much WR talent in the league right now that Evans is just another guy. I kept valuing him highly because I was too busy watching how good Lee Evans was and not busy enough watching how good everyone else was, too.
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Interesting how you've moved Evans into the bad process, bad outcome category. I understand your point, but he still seems entrenched in the good process, bad outcome category. Had Evans decided not to sign an extension with the Bills, he'd almost certainly be in a better situation than he's in now, and as such imminently more valuable. Its difficult for me to put that scenario in the "bad process, good outcome" category, when the only thing that was "bad" was relying on talent.To me its possible that there were "better" processes that could have been followed, but calling this one "bad" feels extreme. I might be splitting hairs with semantics though.
 
PranksterJD said:
SSOG said:
For what it's worth, this "absolute talent vs. relative talent" thing was my biggest pitfall with Lee Evans (the "bad process" that led to my "bad outcome"). Lee Evans is an incredibly talented receiver in an absolute sense. He's incredibly skilled. In a relative sense, though, there's so much WR talent in the league right now that Evans is just another guy. I kept valuing him highly because I was too busy watching how good Lee Evans was and not busy enough watching how good everyone else was, too.
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Interesting how you've moved Evans into the bad process, bad outcome category. I understand your point, but he still seems entrenched in the good process, bad outcome category. Had Evans decided not to sign an extension with the Bills, he'd almost certainly be in a better situation than he's in now, and as such imminently more valuable. Its difficult for me to put that scenario in the "bad process, good outcome" category, when the only thing that was "bad" was relying on talent.To me its possible that there were "better" processes that could have been followed, but calling this one "bad" feels extreme. I might be splitting hairs with semantics though.
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Right. I think sometimes fantasy players stare at their navel so much trying to double think every move they have ever made that they get tied up in knots. Sometimes you can have a good process that ends badly. Not everything ends well. You won't win them all even if you have a good process.
 
gheemony said:
What's the general thought on Moreno? Feel free to send me to an earlier part of the thread if it has been discussed.
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I think there are two threads about him on the front page. IMO Moreno is basically Marshawn Lynch without the character issues. Decent, serviceable back. Nothing more. I moved him in the three leagues where I owned him because I think he got his chance last season and I don't think he did enough with it.
 
PPR

Best (will be the best PPR back from the 2009, 2010, or 2011 drafts)

Bryant

Matthews

..

..

..

Spiller

NonPPR

Matthews

Bryant

Best

..

..

(Someone other than Spiller)

 
gheemony said:
What's the general thought on Moreno? Feel free to send me to an earlier part of the thread if it has been discussed.
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We've had several significant discussions on him, but they're buried somewhere in the last 25-50 pages probably. The Readers Digest of my opinion is that he's a solid Top-15 Dynasty back. He will never be a superstar but should maintain borderline RB1/RB2 value for a long time. I think there were legitimate reasons why his numbers were down last season other than the much-talked about lack of big play ability (i.e. the offensive line absolutely crumbled in the second half, Moreno was used much differently than Buckhalter, Moreno hit the wall in December when the offensive line crumpled and passing game fell off, Moreno may never have gotten all the way back to normal after the preseason MCL sprain). In short, I think he's a great buy this offseason while the Chicken Littles are wondering why he only rushed for 950 yards at 3.8 YPC instead of the 1,150 yards and 4.25 YPC that he was on pace for pre-December.
 
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PranksterJD said:
SSOG said:
For what it's worth, this "absolute talent vs. relative talent" thing was my biggest pitfall with Lee Evans (the "bad process" that led to my "bad outcome"). Lee Evans is an incredibly talented receiver in an absolute sense. He's incredibly skilled. In a relative sense, though, there's so much WR talent in the league right now that Evans is just another guy. I kept valuing him highly because I was too busy watching how good Lee Evans was and not busy enough watching how good everyone else was, too.
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Interesting how you've moved Evans into the bad process, bad outcome category. I understand your point, but he still seems entrenched in the good process, bad outcome category. Had Evans decided not to sign an extension with the Bills, he'd almost certainly be in a better situation than he's in now, and as such imminently more valuable. Its difficult for me to put that scenario in the "bad process, good outcome" category, when the only thing that was "bad" was relying on talent.To me its possible that there were "better" processes that could have been followed, but calling this one "bad" feels extreme. I might be splitting hairs with semantics though.
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The "bad process" part was overrating Evans with respect to his peers. When I drafted him, I did so thinking I was drafting a top 10 talent. Evans is still every bit as talented today as he was four years ago, but now I don't consider him one of the top 15 talents in the league (just look at all of the names I listed as being more talented than Bowe). Evans is a fantastic talent, and in a better situation he'd be putting up better numbers, but at the end of the day he's just a mediocre NFL WR1, talent-wise.
 
EBF said:
IMO Moreno is basically Marshawn Lynch without the character issues. Decent, serviceable back. Nothing more.
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I know Lynch is not looked upon favorably in this thread, but strictly on-the-field and in a vacuum, I think he's got more ability than Moreno. Not only is Lynch faster (40 times of 4.45 vs 4.55) but he plays "bigger" and runs with more power. I like that high-knee running.
 
karmarooster said:
EBF said:
IMO Moreno is basically Marshawn Lynch without the character issues. Decent, serviceable back. Nothing more.
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I know Lynch is not looked upon favorably in this thread, but strictly on-the-field and in a vacuum, I think he's got more ability than Moreno. Not only is Lynch faster (40 times of 4.45 vs 4.55) but he plays "bigger" and runs with more power. I like that high-knee running.
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Yea, I might agree with you there. Purely in terms of combine numbers he was a bit faster and more explosive.
 
karmarooster said:
EBF said:
IMO Moreno is basically Marshawn Lynch without the character issues. Decent, serviceable back. Nothing more.
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I know Lynch is not looked upon favorably in this thread, but strictly on-the-field and in a vacuum, I think he's got more ability than Moreno. Not only is Lynch faster (40 times of 4.45 vs 4.55) but he plays "bigger" and runs with more power. I like that high-knee running.
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His rookie season aside.. and besides a few plays here and there when he displays what he's capable of.. Lynch has run weak. He's not hitting the holes hard, he's not anticipating, and he's dancing around behind the line a lot and he's not taking what's there.
 
Anyone have a 'gut' feeling on any of the UFA's out there that might be in a good situation?

Joique Bell (Buffalo)

Lonyae Miller (Dallas)

Keiland Williams (Washington)

Toney Baker (Denver)

Jeremy Williams (San Diego)

Blair White (Indy)

 
road warrior said:
Anyone have a 'gut' feeling on any of the UFA's out there that might be in a good situation?Joique Bell (Buffalo)Lonyae Miller (Dallas)Keiland Williams (Washington)Toney Baker (Denver) Jeremy Williams (San Diego)Blair White (Indy)
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I like Joique Bell, but he ran pretty slow (high 4.6) and landed in about the worst imaginable situation.
 
road warrior said:
Anyone have a 'gut' feeling on any of the UFA's out there that might be in a good situation?Joique Bell (Buffalo)Lonyae Miller (Dallas)Keiland Williams (Washington)Toney Baker (Denver) Jeremy Williams (San Diego)Blair White (Indy)
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I'd rank themJeremy WilliamsBlair WhiteToney BakerKeiland WilliamsOf those players, Jeremy Williams is probably in the best situation to make the club as he's the type of WR that SD likes, so i'd take him over the others. I like the talent of both Toney Baker and Blair White, but they are in tough situations. And then finally in really deep leagues i'd take a chance on Keiland Williams, every other RB on Washington is either 30+ or is coming off serious injury. I wouldn't bother with either Joique Bell or Loyae Miller who have questionable talent and are in terrible situations to become anything but a specials teams guy.
 
I was wondering which of the Giant WR's do you value the most and why? Steve Smith had a huge season last year but Nicks seemed to come on strong and seems like a beast after the catch. Who do you guys like better in a dynasty set up? (Non ppr)

 
The Man With No Name said:
Steelers22 said:
I was wondering which of the Giant WR's do you value the most and why? Steve Smith had a huge season last year but Nicks seemed to come on strong and seems like a beast after the catch. Who do you guys like better in a dynasty set up? (Non ppr)
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Nicks for me without a doubt
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I think its actually very close. Smith's rapport with Eli can't be underestimated. I'd say it comes down to whether you are a swing for the fences owner or an owner who values higher floors. I'm more of the former, so I'd go with Nicks. In PPR leagues I think Smith is the guy regardless.
 
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SSOG said:
Here's my thing about Dwayne Bowe- when he was ranked so high a couple of years ago, it's because people thought he was an elite talent. While he's still an incredibly talented receiver in a vacuum, when you compare him to his peers he hardly looks so elite anymore.

If you were to rank Dwayne Bowe strictly on talent- not on situation, not on age, just purely on where you think his talent level rates over the next 3 years or so- where would you put him? Personally, I'd put him behind Fitz, Johnson, Johnson, VJax, Austin, White, Wayne, Desean, Colston, Rice, Marshall, Crabtree, and Harvin. I'd possibly put Randy, Smiff, Boldin, and Ochocinco in front of him (depending on how they age)... but even if those guys "age out" of their talent, I'd still put Bryant in front of him, and next year I suspect all three of the "big three" (Green, Jones, and Floyd) will wind up in front of him, too (so it's not like Bowe will be moving up the list any time soon). Jennings is probably on par with Bowe, but Jennings plays with Rogers, which is pretty much the definition of "the ideal situation". So, while Bowe is a very talented receiver, his talent only ranks him around 15th in the NFL, and I don't see him moving up the list any time soon. Throw in his worse-than-average situation and it's hard to justify putting Bowe much higher than the 16-20 range. Even if Bowe was in a great situation, I think he'd be hard-pressed to crack the top 12 in my rankings.
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I was a bit surprised that you did not include Nicks in the above analysis - FWIW (and I'll put this in the off-season dynasty trades thread as well) I just made the following trade non-PPR:Gave up Bowe

Acquired Nicks

I think in terms of talent one might make a case for either player - but I have a strong preference for Nicks in this trade and would most definitely include him in the above list of top WRs considering you went approx. 15 deep.

 
road warrior said:
Anyone have a 'gut' feeling on any of the UFA's out there that might be in a good situation?Joique Bell (Buffalo)Lonyae Miller (Dallas)Keiland Williams (Washington)Toney Baker (Denver) Jeremy Williams (San Diego)Blair White (Indy)
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Personally, I think it's crazy to even consider adding UFAs until after training camps start. If you're adding them at this point, you're adding them based on perceived talent... but they're UNDRAFTED FREE AGENTS. All 32 GMs have unanimously decreed that they were not draftable talents. It's almost a certainty that those GMs were wrong about SOMEONE, but I wouldn't start taking guesses on who until I started hearing some camp buzz. Before that, I feel like you're just betting on a hand of Texas Hold'em... without looking at your cards first. There are more than enough skill position players who actually went drafted who are flying under the radar right now (think: Anquan Boldin, Maurice Jones-Drew, Marques Colston) to devote even a passing thought to the UFAs at this point. But again, that's just my process on UFAs. I'm a "play the odds, spend the resources where the resources are most likely to pay off" kind of guy. For instance, I added Josh Freeman in my league last year after he went undrafted through the rookie draft, not because I liked Josh Freeman (on the contrary, I thought he was rubbish), but simply because he was a 1st round draft pick, and it generally pays to bet on 1st round draft picks. And, in the case of Josh Freeman, it definitely paid.I don't bet on an UFA until a UFA gives me a very strong reason to. On the other hand, I'll gladly bet on a 1st round draft pick- even one that I don't like the slightest- unless he gives me a very strong reason NOT to.
 
soothsayer said:
I was a bit surprised that you did not include Nicks in the above analysis - FWIW (and I'll put this in the off-season dynasty trades thread as well) I just made the following trade non-PPR:Gave up BoweAcquired NicksI think in terms of talent one might make a case for either player - but I have a strong preference for Nicks in this trade and would most definitely include him in the above list of top WRs considering you went approx. 15 deep.
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I think Bowe is more talented than Nicks. If anything, I think Britt is closer to jumping Bowe than Nicks is... but I'd still prefer Bowe to either of them.
 
What scares me about Bowe is that this is sort of a make-or-break year for him. If he doesn't step up and prove that he can be a dependable #1 WR in the NFL, I think you'll see his value fall considerably. If he comes out next year and gets something like 50-65 catches for 900 yards, the luster will come off a bit and people will start treating him more like a Lee Evans/Braylon Edwards.

I sent him packing in the only league where I owned him. Not because I think he's a bust, but moreso because his value is high enough to package for an elite talent and I didn't want to be the guy left holding the bag if he goes the way of Rod Gardner.

 
SSOG said:
road warrior said:
Anyone have a 'gut' feeling on any of the UFA's out there that might be in a good situation?Joique Bell (Buffalo)Lonyae Miller (Dallas)Keiland Williams (Washington)Toney Baker (Denver) Jeremy Williams (San Diego)Blair White (Indy)
Click to expand...
Personally, I think it's crazy to even consider adding UFAs until after training camps start. If you're adding them at this point, you're adding them based on perceived talent... but they're UNDRAFTED FREE AGENTS. All 32 GMs have unanimously decreed that they were not draftable talents. It's almost a certainty that those GMs were wrong about SOMEONE, but I wouldn't start taking guesses on who until I started hearing some camp buzz. Before that, I feel like you're just betting on a hand of Texas Hold'em... without looking at your cards first. There are more than enough skill position players who actually went drafted who are flying under the radar right now (think: Anquan Boldin, Maurice Jones-Drew, Marques Colston) to devote even a passing thought to the UFAs at this point. But again, that's just my process on UFAs. I'm a "play the odds, spend the resources where the resources are most likely to pay off" kind of guy. For instance, I added Josh Freeman in my league last year after he went undrafted through the rookie draft, not because I liked Josh Freeman (on the contrary, I thought he was rubbish), but simply because he was a 1st round draft pick, and it generally pays to bet on 1st round draft picks. And, in the case of Josh Freeman, it definitely paid.I don't bet on an UFA until a UFA gives me a very strong reason to. On the other hand, I'll gladly bet on a 1st round draft pick- even one that I don't like the slightest- unless he gives me a very strong reason NOT to.
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Clearly you play in a shallow league considering Josh Freeman went undrafted last year, but some of us play in leagues where every 1st-3rd round skill position player is long gone. Particularly in this draft where only 13 RB's were selected, some UDFA RB's will most definitely be selected in our draft. Trying to determine which of these guys are worth a shot before training camp begins is a necessary process.
 
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Glaven said:
SSOG said:
road warrior said:
Anyone have a 'gut' feeling on any of the UFA's out there that might be in a good situation?Joique Bell (Buffalo)Lonyae Miller (Dallas)Keiland Williams (Washington)Toney Baker (Denver) Jeremy Williams (San Diego)Blair White (Indy)
Click to expand...
Personally, I think it's crazy to even consider adding UFAs until after training camps start. If you're adding them at this point, you're adding them based on perceived talent... but they're UNDRAFTED FREE AGENTS. All 32 GMs have unanimously decreed that they were not draftable talents. It's almost a certainty that those GMs were wrong about SOMEONE, but I wouldn't start taking guesses on who until I started hearing some camp buzz. Before that, I feel like you're just betting on a hand of Texas Hold'em... without looking at your cards first. There are more than enough skill position players who actually went drafted who are flying under the radar right now (think: Anquan Boldin, Maurice Jones-Drew, Marques Colston) to devote even a passing thought to the UFAs at this point. But again, that's just my process on UFAs. I'm a "play the odds, spend the resources where the resources are most likely to pay off" kind of guy. For instance, I added Josh Freeman in my league last year after he went undrafted through the rookie draft, not because I liked Josh Freeman (on the contrary, I thought he was rubbish), but simply because he was a 1st round draft pick, and it generally pays to bet on 1st round draft picks. And, in the case of Josh Freeman, it definitely paid.I don't bet on an UFA until a UFA gives me a very strong reason to. On the other hand, I'll gladly bet on a 1st round draft pick- even one that I don't like the slightest- unless he gives me a very strong reason NOT to.
Click to expand...
Clearly you play in a shallow league considering Josh Freeman went undrafted last year, but some of us play in leagues where every 1st-3rd round skill position player is long gone. Particularly in this draft where only 13 RB's were selected, some UDFA RB's will most definitely be selected in our draft. Trying to determine which of these guys are worth a shot before training camp begins is a necessary process.
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Wasn't Josh Freeman a 1st round pick?
 
PranksterJD said:
Glaven said:
SSOG said:
road warrior said:
Anyone have a 'gut' feeling on any of the UFA's out there that might be in a good situation?Joique Bell (Buffalo)Lonyae Miller (Dallas)Keiland Williams (Washington)Toney Baker (Denver) Jeremy Williams (San Diego)Blair White (Indy)
Click to expand...
Personally, I think it's crazy to even consider adding UFAs until after training camps start. If you're adding them at this point, you're adding them based on perceived talent... but they're UNDRAFTED FREE AGENTS. All 32 GMs have unanimously decreed that they were not draftable talents. It's almost a certainty that those GMs were wrong about SOMEONE, but I wouldn't start taking guesses on who until I started hearing some camp buzz. Before that, I feel like you're just betting on a hand of Texas Hold'em... without looking at your cards first. There are more than enough skill position players who actually went drafted who are flying under the radar right now (think: Anquan Boldin, Maurice Jones-Drew, Marques Colston) to devote even a passing thought to the UFAs at this point. But again, that's just my process on UFAs. I'm a "play the odds, spend the resources where the resources are most likely to pay off" kind of guy. For instance, I added Josh Freeman in my league last year after he went undrafted through the rookie draft, not because I liked Josh Freeman (on the contrary, I thought he was rubbish), but simply because he was a 1st round draft pick, and it generally pays to bet on 1st round draft picks. And, in the case of Josh Freeman, it definitely paid.I don't bet on an UFA until a UFA gives me a very strong reason to. On the other hand, I'll gladly bet on a 1st round draft pick- even one that I don't like the slightest- unless he gives me a very strong reason NOT to.
Click to expand...
Clearly you play in a shallow league considering Josh Freeman went undrafted last year, but some of us play in leagues where every 1st-3rd round skill position player is long gone. Particularly in this draft where only 13 RB's were selected, some UDFA RB's will most definitely be selected in our draft. Trying to determine which of these guys are worth a shot before training camp begins is a necessary process.
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Wasn't Josh Freeman a 1st round pick?
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Yes he was. When i said Freeman went undrafted I was referring to SSOG's rookie draft last year.
 
Glaven said:
PranksterJD said:
Glaven said:
SSOG said:
road warrior said:
Anyone have a 'gut' feeling on any of the UFA's out there that might be in a good situation?Joique Bell (Buffalo)Lonyae Miller (Dallas)Keiland Williams (Washington)Toney Baker (Denver) Jeremy Williams (San Diego)Blair White (Indy)
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Personally, I think it's crazy to even consider adding UFAs until after training camps start. If you're adding them at this point, you're adding them based on perceived talent... but they're UNDRAFTED FREE AGENTS. All 32 GMs have unanimously decreed that they were not draftable talents. It's almost a certainty that those GMs were wrong about SOMEONE, but I wouldn't start taking guesses on who until I started hearing some camp buzz. Before that, I feel like you're just betting on a hand of Texas Hold'em... without looking at your cards first. There are more than enough skill position players who actually went drafted who are flying under the radar right now (think: Anquan Boldin, Maurice Jones-Drew, Marques Colston) to devote even a passing thought to the UFAs at this point. But again, that's just my process on UFAs. I'm a "play the odds, spend the resources where the resources are most likely to pay off" kind of guy. For instance, I added Josh Freeman in my league last year after he went undrafted through the rookie draft, not because I liked Josh Freeman (on the contrary, I thought he was rubbish), but simply because he was a 1st round draft pick, and it generally pays to bet on 1st round draft picks. And, in the case of Josh Freeman, it definitely paid.I don't bet on an UFA until a UFA gives me a very strong reason to. On the other hand, I'll gladly bet on a 1st round draft pick- even one that I don't like the slightest- unless he gives me a very strong reason NOT to.
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Clearly you play in a shallow league considering Josh Freeman went undrafted last year, but some of us play in leagues where every 1st-3rd round skill position player is long gone. Particularly in this draft where only 13 RB's were selected, some UDFA RB's will most definitely be selected in our draft. Trying to determine which of these guys are worth a shot before training camp begins is a necessary process.
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Wasn't Josh Freeman a 1st round pick?
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Yes he was. When i said Freeman went undrafted I was referring to SSOG's rookie draft last year.
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Agreed. I play with 10 taxi squad slots. So, if it costs me a buck (league $'s) for first shot at a prospect then it's to my advantage to grab what might be the next best. Heck, isn't that what Dynasty is for? Pretending we're GM's? Heck, my professional teams owner can pretend (Jerry), so why can't I? ;)
 
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Glaven said:
Clearly you play in a shallow league considering Josh Freeman went undrafted last year, but some of us play in leagues where every 1st-3rd round skill position player is long gone. Particularly in this draft where only 13 RB's were selected, some UDFA RB's will most definitely be selected in our draft. Trying to determine which of these guys are worth a shot before training camp begins is a necessary process.
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Clearly you didn't read my sig. 10 team league, 30 man squads, 300 rostered players plus IR... and we don't use kickers, either. I'd say, in terms of total rostered talent, it's probably comparable to a 12 team league with 27 man rosters- which is a pretty deep league, imo. Josh Freeman going undrafted was a fluke and was the result of my leaguemates drafting "for need", or deciding in their mind that he was terrible and not accepting the possibility they were wrong.There were 75 QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs drafted in the NFL draft. Unless you're in the absolute deepest of the deep leagues, there's no shortage of available talent without dipping into the UFA pool yet.
 
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