Good info hereWhich one though is the burning question.I like your choices.This thread continues to amaze me with the infomation and intelligent debate in here.I'm in a 4 PLAYER KEEPER LEAGUE (MOVING TO #5 KEEPERS NEXT YEAR) - 2QB - 2RB - 2WR - 2 FLEX - 1TE......6 POINT all TD'sThe more u guys talk and inform, the closer i get to my decision of who to keep out of:SJAXJCHARLESBRADYMANNINGCJ#3Cheers Currently its SJAX-CJ3-MANNING-BRADY but i hate throwing JCharles back into the pool, I just feel i will live to regret the decision. Love backing guys with talent and JCharles has it in bucket loads.
Will try and package something leading into the draft so i dont get locked into a player getting injured pre-season. Picks 1-32 are reserved for Keepers. Its an 8 team league. I never thought i would say it, but its probably my most enjoyable league due to 8 nutcases. 4 guys from USA and 4 guys from Australia battling it out over the last 4 years. The rivalry, banter and fun are just A grade stuff.
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Dynasty Rankings (8 Viewers)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
- Start date
Sorry for theGood info hereWhich one though is the burning question.I like your choices.This thread continues to amaze me with the infomation and intelligent debate in here.I'm in a 4 PLAYER KEEPER LEAGUE (MOVING TO #5 KEEPERS NEXT YEAR) - 2QB - 2RB - 2WR - 2 FLEX - 1TE......6 POINT all TD'sThe more u guys talk and inform, the closer i get to my decision of who to keep out of:SJAXJCHARLESBRADYMANNINGCJ#3Cheers Currently its SJAX-CJ3-MANNING-BRADY but i hate throwing JCharles back into the pool, I just feel i will live to regret the decision. Love backing guys with talent and JCharles has it in bucket loads.
Im just messing with you, dont worry, this thread is a partial ACF anyway.Sorry for theGood info hereWhich one though is the burning question.I like your choices.This thread continues to amaze me with the infomation and intelligent debate in here.
SSOG
Moderator
I've got an 8-team keeper with 5 guys from the US and 3 Canadians, and it's my favorite league, too. People who hate on small leagues for the sake of hating on small leagues don't know what they're missing out on- it makes for a really, really entertaining change of pace. In the end, the difficulty of any league is going to be determined by the quality of the competition... end of story.Which one though is the burning question.
shader
Footballguy
Nice post.This illustrates why you pick stud WR's in dynasty leagues.RB's go up and RB's go down. Randy Moss has been a stud WR for ten years. Last year the top 3 dynasty WR's are Andre, Fitz and Calvin. Ditto for this year. (of course, the above depends on your league format, obviously)
shader
Footballguy
League format? If it's PPR, you take Bryant all day long.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
#Lions want Jahvid Best to be the next Chris Johnson. "There's no debate" that Best will start in Week 1. Get on board: http://bit.ly/9L3nsQ
SSOG
Moderator
The Raiders want Darren McFadden to be the next Chris Johnson, too.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Awfully dismissive, there, SSOG. Almost as dismissive as the guys who laughed at the original Chris Johnson-Marshall Faulk comparisons. Oh, and the Raiders wanted McFadden to be the first Chris Johnson.
massraider
Footballguy
That title did make me roll my eyes, but if you read it, the thing to take away from it is that the Lions have no preconceived notion that Best is a change-of-pace guy, and they plan on giving him the ball a lot.
Whether he can actually handle it is another question, but at least the Lions seem ready to feed him the ball.
Whether he can actually handle it is another question, but at least the Lions seem ready to feed him the ball.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
That's exactly why I posted it. For a read on how the Lions plan to utilize Best. I
Best and his fit in this offense, but I'm under no illusion that he's going to sniff CJ2K levels of production.
SSOG
Moderator
I'm only dismissing the "Lions want Best to be Chris Johnson" line. That's stupid and goes without saying. All teams want their players to be studs- our job as dynasty owners is to figure out whether they will. I'm not dismissing the article that you linked; it provides some good fodder for discussion, but the fact that the Lions would be happy if it turned out that the guy they just drafted was an All Pro isn't part of said fodder."Lions to use Best like Chris Johnson" is useful information. "Lions optimistic that Chris Johnson provides a model for what Best's workload could be" is another. "Lions approaching Best era with no preconceived notions" is yet another. "Lions want Best to be Chris Johnson", however, is no more useful than reporting two years ago that the Raiders wanted Jamarcus Russell to be John Elway. Well of course they do! They also want Rolando McClain to be Ray Lewis and DHB to be Bob Hayes. I feel like the first sentence of the tweet is just a bit sensationalistic and cheap.
Sebowski
Footballguy
At this point I'm just hoping Malcolm Kelly can end up being a JJ Stokes.
ebcpastor2004
Footballguy
Can I talk a league specific trade in here? I'm rebuilding a Zealots team that I took over last summer. I've made alot of changes & this is what the offensive starting line-up looks like:
Ben/ Henne
JStew
Beannie Wells
Calvin Johnson
Vincent Jackson (after suspension)
& 2 of Donald Brown/ Dwayne Bowe/ Dez Bryant/ Malcolm Floyd
I received an offer of JStew & VJax in exchange for Adrian Peterson and I declined. There is now an offer on the table where I send Chris Wells & VJax for ADP. I am on the verge of pulling the trigger, but before I do I want to make sure I'm not missing anything.
You don't expect Gerhart to do anything but replace Taylor right? And do you think Wells' floor & ceiling are much lower than Peterson's? I think I can withstand not having Jackson as a starting WR, but what do think?
Do you think I should make the trade? YES or NO?
TIA
Ben/ Henne
JStew
Beannie Wells
Calvin Johnson
Vincent Jackson (after suspension)
& 2 of Donald Brown/ Dwayne Bowe/ Dez Bryant/ Malcolm Floyd
I received an offer of JStew & VJax in exchange for Adrian Peterson and I declined. There is now an offer on the table where I send Chris Wells & VJax for ADP. I am on the verge of pulling the trigger, but before I do I want to make sure I'm not missing anything.
You don't expect Gerhart to do anything but replace Taylor right? And do you think Wells' floor & ceiling are much lower than Peterson's? I think I can withstand not having Jackson as a starting WR, but what do think?
Do you think I should make the trade? YES or NO?
TIA
I'd do that trade in an instant and I'm a fan of both Wells and V-JAX. Wells has neither the floor nor the upside of Peterson and Jackson can be replaced from within by Bowe,and eventually Bryant.Having Peterson, Calvin as your current young studs and Stewart and Bryant as your future studs will make you a contender for years to come, and if Bowe bounces back or Brown breaks out, you more than likely will be the favorite.
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Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Reoffer JStew and VJax for ADP and hope he's still willing.
Most of the time the best player wins, but that's two studs for one - which is an exception IMO.
Most of the time the best player wins, but that's two studs for one - which is an exception IMO.
massraider
Footballguy
Yeah, good luck with that umm, rebuilding job. I'd do the trade.
YES!!
ebcpastor2004
Footballguy
What's wrong with my rebuild? You don't like what I've done.Here's the link to the op in the ACF where I'm looking for advice. You can see for yourself what it was like when I started.
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=534160
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I think it's more along the lines of him saying that having a team with five top 20 dynasty players isn't really a "rebuild".
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ebcpastor2004
Footballguy
ah... thanks for the clarification. It didn't always have those players. Added Stewart, Calvin, Wells, & Jackson since the end of the season.
OnThInIcE911
Footballguy
Feels like I should snap accept this but a little worried none the less. What do you guys think?OnThInIcE911 said:
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Because we all know that the way teams say they're going to use guys in June is pure gold.Fear & Loathing said:That's exactly why I posted it. For a read on how the Lions plan to utilize Best. Imassraider said:Best and his fit in this offense, but I'm under no illusion that he's going to sniff CJ2K levels of production.
Though I agree it's better than nothing.
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ebcpastor2004
Footballguy
The point is the same. If you had the ammo to add those guys, it couldn't really be classified as a rebuild.
I won't say anymore about it after this- you can check the link if you care; but the team was 7-6 (07), 3-10 (08), & 2-11 (09) in the last three years. It had the ammo b/c I traded off what I could when I took it over. To me, the only viable, keepable pieces were Ben R, D Brown, & G Jennings; but if it's not a rebuild then I guess it's not...
I did the trade btw- which is what I came in here for anyway. Chris Wells + Vincent Jackson for Adrian Peterson. Pretty happy with it.
I won't say anymore about it after this- you can check the link if you care; but the team was 7-6 (07), 3-10 (08), & 2-11 (09) in the last three years. It had the ammo b/c I traded off what I could when I took it over. To me, the only viable, keepable pieces were Ben R, D Brown, & G Jennings; but if it's not a rebuild then I guess it's not...
I did the trade btw- which is what I came in here for anyway. Chris Wells + Vincent Jackson for Adrian Peterson. Pretty happy with it.
SSOG
Moderator
There was recently a cycle where a bunch of former stud talent aged out and a bunch of soon-to-be stud talent grew to replace it at WR... but that doesn't mean that stud WRs aren't extremely stable as far as fantasy assets go. Moss/Owens/Harrison were the top 3 WRs for the better part of a decade. Fitzgerald has been a top-5 WR for 3-4 years now and looks to have a stranglehold on the position. Judging by how slow everyone is to move Calvin, he might have a stranglehold on his top-5 ranking, too. Reggie Wayne is another example of an elite WR who remained an elite WR until he aged out of it (perhaps prematurely).I think the guys in the 5-10 range tend to fluctuate a lot, but the guys at the very top, the 1st-tier studs, the rare birds that actually manage to combine pedigree, production, and youth- those guys tend to be incredibly stable.Of course, I think that's equally true at RB. The guys with youth, production, and pedigree tend to be very stable, and it's mostly the guys in the second and third tiers that are all over the map. Which is why it's so important to land an honest-to-goodness tier 1 talent.Basic rule of thumb for me is that if you're 4+ years away from the end of your prime and you already have multiple stud seasons, you're probably going to remain a highly valued fantasy commodity for years to come. Position is irrelevant. The reason why going WR-heavy might make sense is that it's a lot easier for a WR to meet those criteria since the end of their prime comes later. For instance, Andre Johnson hits his stride at age 29 and he's considered by many to be the top dynasty WR. If Tomlinson hit his stride at age 29, he'd be a 3rd or 4th tier RB.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
You're certainly entitled to that opinion. I don't get the "stupid and goes without saying" line. It doesn't go without saying at all. The Browns didn't draft Montario Hardesty hoping he would give them what Chris Johnson gives the Titans. The Chargers didn't draft Ryan Mathews hoping to use him like Chris Johnson. The Bills have given no indication that they expect to model C.J. Spiller's workload on Chris Johnson. I think "Lions approaching Best era with no preconceived notions" says absolutely nothing.
"Lions optimistic that Chris Johnson provides a model for what Best's workload could be" is long-winded and doesn't ideally capture the spirit of the article.
"Lions want Jahvid Best to be the next Chris Johnson" suggests exactly what I wanted it to suggest: Not only that the Lions intend to use Best the same way the Titans used Johnson as a rookie, but also that Best has a great chance for a Johnson-like rookie impact, and his style of play calls to mind Johnson's.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Sounds like both sides are splitting hairs here. Norv Turner did come out and say he projects 250 carries and 40 receptions for Mathews this year. Chris Johnson had 251 carries and 43 receptions his rookie year. Most of that Best article was about workload, right?
whodeywhodey
Footballguy
What do you guys think of Olsen and Keller?
I'm in need of a TE and the owner of Olsen and Keller wants draft picks --- he has already stated that he isn't expecting a first.
I have the 2nd pick in the upcoming supplemental 6 round draft.
I'm thinking 3.02 for Olsen.
I'm in need of a TE and the owner of Olsen and Keller wants draft picks --- he has already stated that he isn't expecting a first.
I have the 2nd pick in the upcoming supplemental 6 round draft.
I'm thinking 3.02 for Olsen.
At that price, I'd take them both. Both are talented but undervalued because of situation. Situations change. Fast. Grab one or both and plan for them to be your TE2 this year (if possible). Hope situations change and they become your eventual TE1.If you needed production this year, I'd take Keller over Olsen. Some recent articles saying that Keller can be better because Sanchez will be given more options and so will Keller. I am targetting Keller in my leagues.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I like Keller a lot. I think he is undervalued even after getting 12/180/3 in 3 playoff games. I think he will be a TE1 this year - 750/8. LinkOlsen's main negative is Martz. You could probably get Jimmy Graham at 3.02. Graham won't help you as much now (pending more news on Shockey), but has upside through the roof.
I'd rather have Graham than Olsen - at least I know Brees and Payton will feed the TE, and by the time Olsen or Martz is in another city Graham will be contributing with the Saints.
Dave Larkin
Moderator
Can I get your takes on Steve Smith of the Giants going forward? He is currently entrenched as my WR2 behind Larry Fitzgerald on my team in rebuilding mode right now. I've received a couple of offers for him way below my valuation of him. With the number of weapons in the NY passing game - Nicks, Manningham, maybe Barden this year - do you think Smith will continue to be a high end WR2?
I am of the opinion that he will, purely because Eli Manning trusts him. When a QB trusts a receiver, he goes to him more often in clutch situations. Smith proved last season what a truly dependable player he can be. In 2009 on 151 targets, he caught 107 balls, a 70% catch success rate.
So how do you see his value going forward?
I am of the opinion that he will, purely because Eli Manning trusts him. When a QB trusts a receiver, he goes to him more often in clutch situations. Smith proved last season what a truly dependable player he can be. In 2009 on 151 targets, he caught 107 balls, a 70% catch success rate.
So how do you see his value going forward?
If recent history is any indication Olsen will be free of Martz by 2011.
I think Smith will settle in as a guy who puts up about 90 catches every year, i expect he'll continue to be used as a high percentage WR somewhat similar to Welker. A reasonable expectation is 90-1,100-6 for the nexy few years. I think nicks and Manningham effect each other a lot more than Smith since his skill set is unique to theirs. I don't see Barden as anything to worry about.Is 90-1,100-6 something you like as your WR2? I like that more as a WR3, but its certainly acceptable if your are strong elsewhere. Seems like a guy in the 15-20 range to me.
Bottom line: Having Smith as your #2 won't get you killed, but I wouldn't expect it to give you any kind of advantage either.
PPR, or standard? It makes a big difference to his value, obviously.
Smith 's trade value is weird because he's perceived as having nothing but downside from his 2009 numbers. There are indeed a lot of factors indicating that he won't ever repeat his numbers from last season, mainly the rise of the talent behind him and regression to the mean for both Smith and Manning.
That said, it's pretty bizarre that no one wants a 25-year old guy coming off of 107/1220/7. As an owner, he's one of those guys you pretty much have to hang on to because his perceived value is so far below his demonstrated production. (Probably some 'endowment effect' at work, for any behavioural econ buffs)
Smith 's trade value is weird because he's perceived as having nothing but downside from his 2009 numbers. There are indeed a lot of factors indicating that he won't ever repeat his numbers from last season, mainly the rise of the talent behind him and regression to the mean for both Smith and Manning.
That said, it's pretty bizarre that no one wants a 25-year old guy coming off of 107/1220/7. As an owner, he's one of those guys you pretty much have to hang on to because his perceived value is so far below his demonstrated production. (Probably some 'endowment effect' at work, for any behavioural econ buffs)
whodeywhodey
Footballguy
Just traded my 3.02 for Keller. Obviously I still have the 1.02 and 2.02. This is a PPR league.He's young and I actually really like that offense. He's one of the most athletic TEs in the league too.My only other TE was Shockey so I am pretty excited to get a young TE.
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The Real Hipster Doofus
Footballguy
Who in the world is giving you Keller for the 3.02?
whodeywhodey
Footballguy
Just a guy in my league who is wanting to rebuild. Love this trade as I think Keller has the tools to be a top 10 TE in the ppr format.
Now the question is whether to take Bryant with the 1.02 or the best RB on the board.
I am in need of RB depth. My WRs are Steve Smith, Boldin, Colston, LEvans, and a few others.
Gotta like Bryant in dynasty though.
Now the question is whether to take Bryant with the 1.02 or the best RB on the board.
I am in need of RB depth. My WRs are Steve Smith, Boldin, Colston, LEvans, and a few others.
Gotta like Bryant in dynasty though.
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The Real Hipster Doofus
Footballguy
My point being Keller's value should be more in the late 1st/early 2nd range IMO.As for the 1.02, its a no brainer for Dez.
SSOG
Moderator
1100/6 comes out to 146 fantasy points, which would have ranked in the top 18 in 7 of the past 10 seasons (and the top 20 in 9 of the past 10). Which means not only would 1100/6 always be WR2-caliber production, it would actually be STRONG (i.e. top 50%) WR2 production the majority of the time.Personally, I'd rather my WR2 be the 2nd best WR in all of fantasy (and my WR3 to be the third best)... but in the land of reality, any time my WR2 finishes in the 13-18 range, I'm pretty happy with that.
whodeywhodey
Footballguy
I agree. That's where I had him valued as well. At 3.02 it was a no-brainer for me (especially with head case Shockey as my starter).
Dave Larkin
Moderator
Yes, it's PPR, just to clarify.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
In a ppr (and even in a non-ppr) Steve Smith will still have tons of value. Sure the Giants have some other weapons in the passing game - but all top offenses do - but Smith and Nicks will be the main weapons. Nicks for his dynamic ability and Smith for his sure hands, amazing routes and overall skill. Manning has shown an ability to carry an offense and with a declining o-line and RBs that can't stay healthy the Giants have moved to a passing offense.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Rebuilding by trading away a thrid year TE that has shown that he can play in this league at a high level for a "maybe" draft pick?He'll be rebuilding in perpetuity is my guess.
So what to do with Vincent Jackson? On top of the possible suspension, there is now the possibility of a hold-out for the entire season:
"As to Jackson, don't be shocked if he refuses to sign the tender and then sits out into the regular season, possibly until Week 10 and possibly for the entire year."
I am being offered Jackson in a contract league. The price is dropping because of the news. Not sure whether to jump on the offer or stay away completely.
"As to Jackson, don't be shocked if he refuses to sign the tender and then sits out into the regular season, possibly until Week 10 and possibly for the entire year."
I am being offered Jackson in a contract league. The price is dropping because of the news. Not sure whether to jump on the offer or stay away completely.
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
I read that NO ONE will be holding out this year because of the lack of a deal with the owners. Due to that, anyone not in camp one month prior to the season (or something like that) won't get credit for the year of service. NFLN said that that will basically eliminate the possibility of any rookie holdouts this year. And I would assume that would apply to veterans too.ETA: It's even in this same story.
"As we recently mentioned, however, McNeill would lose a year of service if he fails while under contract to report for training camp by August 10, 30 days before the start of the regular season."
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Tau837
Footballguy
Not only that, but it's hard for me to believe Jackson would give up more than $3M to sit out and make this point. IMO he needs the Chargers more than they need him, and he basically has no leverage. I think he only made $600K last year, so, while he arguably deserves a bigger deal based on his past couple of seasons, he's never seen a salary like $3M, and it's hard for me to see him throwing it away.
corpcow
Footballguy
... you guys play in too many 10 and 12 team leagues
Most of my leagues are 16 teams - so a WR2 in the top 20 is effectively a WR1 
