Dynasty Rankings (11 Viewers)

F&L I got a question here.

Harvin ? Shall I go after him ? We are on pick 72, I am up at pick 73 next (slow dynasty start up draft) PPR league.

So do I go for Harvin with all his problems or do I take my 1st QB ?

This is an important pick in my draft as my next pick is 105.

Harvin is the last upside young WR on your rankings in the top 25.

Current team (line ups 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex)

Peterson, Stewart, Greene

Marshall, Nicks, Welker, Dez Bryant

Finley

The QBs left are all of them except the Big 7 (Rodgers thru Schaub)

So it comes down to the last big time potential WR (we can start up to 5) or going with a QB for my future

Which do you think is the best call ? Harvin and his upside or lock down a sure fire young QB for the future ?

I am struggling on this. I won't be picking until probably 5 PM tomorrow since pick 72 is still sitting around and I work tomorrow.

So any thoughts on this situation with my current team. Thanks.

Also PS I still use your rankings (along with my own) and I really think most of the players are spot on. The only one I really disagree with is Marshall I have him as the #4 dynasty WR I am a big believer in him in a PPR league. I trade out Fitz and my 2011 1st for Marshall and Nicks in this draft during it.

Anyway hope you guys can give me some ideas on this one.

Thanks.

I would take Kolb or perhaps Michael Bush/Ahmad Bradshaw/CJ Spiller if they're available. I like your squad so far, and Harvin would be a decent pick, but I think Maclin would be better if he's there.

Fear & Loathing said:

Fullback Fro said:

Cooley needs to be ranked higher.-McNabb has proven that he looks for the TE, see Celek-Kyle Shanahan has proven that he will use TE early and often (see Owen Daniels)-First pre-season game Cooley has 3 catches in first half. I see a bounce back year.

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Evan Silva and I just had this conversation and moved him up the Rotoworld Draft Guide rankings.

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The one problem i see with Cooley is Fred Davis, he is the real deal.

rzrback77 said:

Curious as to the latest date of your dynasty rankings list. Are you updating somewhere other than the Tundra Dynasty rankings and I missed it?

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Where are your updated rankings? I know you are working with Roto, but I cant seem to find them.TIA

Fear & Loathing said:

Fullback Fro said:

Cooley needs to be ranked higher.

-McNabb has proven that he looks for the TE, see Celek

-Kyle Shanahan has proven that he will use TE early and often (see Owen Daniels)

-First pre-season game Cooley has 3 catches in first half.

I see a bounce back year.

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:X Evan Silva and I just had this conversation and moved him up the Rotoworld Draft Guide rankings.

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I was actually just thinking the same thing (McNabb and Shanahan are too damn good to preside over a mediocre passing offense), but Santana Moss, not Chris Cooley, is going to be the primary beneficiary of that belief.

OddibeMcD said:

rzrback77 said:

Curious as to the latest date of your dynasty rankings list. Are you updating somewhere other than the Tundra Dynasty rankings and I missed it?

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Where are your updated rankings? I know you are working with Roto, but I cant seem to find them.

TIA

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Here are his latest: https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Au...amp;hl=en#gid=0

OddibeMcD said:

rzrback77 said:

Curious as to the latest date of your dynasty rankings list. Are you updating somewhere other than the Tundra Dynasty rankings and I missed it?

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:X Where are your updated rankings? I know you are working with Roto, but I cant seem to find them.

TIA

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Hopefully out this weekend on Rotoworld. They're all finished expect for notes. I've been too busy writing about redraft crap (haven't been to bed yet and it's 5:15 in the morning) that I haven't been able to finish off the notes and the additions (Victor Cruz, Stephen Williams, Kareem Huggins, Chris Ivory, etc.). Here's a Google Docs spreadsheet that I've been using as a workbook. That hasn't been updated in a few days.

HenryMuto said:

F&L I got a question here.Harvin ? Shall I go after him ? We are on pick 72, I am up at pick 73 next (slow dynasty start up draft) PPR league.So do I go for Harvin with all his problems or do I take my 1st QB ?This is an important pick in my draft as my next pick is 105.Harvin is the last upside young WR on your rankings in the top 25.Current team (line ups 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex)Peterson, Stewart, GreeneMarshall, Nicks, Welker, Dez BryantFinleyThe QBs left are all of them except the Big 7 (Rodgers thru Schaub)So it comes down to the last big time potential WR (we can start up to 5) or going with a QB for my futureWhich do you think is the best call ? Harvin and his upside or lock down a sure fire young QB for the future ?I am struggling on this. I won't be picking until probably 5 PM tomorrow since pick 72 is still sitting around and I work tomorrow.So any thoughts on this situation with my current team. Thanks.Also PS I still use your rankings (along with my own) and I really think most of the players are spot on. The only one I really disagree with is Marshall I have him as the #4 dynasty WR I am a big believer in him in a PPR league. I trade out Fitz and my 2011 1st for Marshall and Nicks in this draft during it.Anyway hope you guys can give me some ideas on this one.Thanks.

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If you have Big Ben, Ryan, Flacco, Cutler, and Kolb all ranked similarly, won't one of them come back to you in the next round? I'd be tempted to grab Big Ben here, but it seems that Harvin is sticking out like a sore thumb as the best available by far at his position. There's no way I'd take Maclin over him. Also, I don't worry about "all of Harvin's problems" at all. His migraines don't affect my valuation of him any more than Terrell Davis' did in his prime. Of course, if Harvin misses actual game time once or twice this year (instead of a meaningless training camp), that could change. But as of right now, it's not something I personally am concerned with.

SSOG said:

Fear & Loathing said:

Fullback Fro said:

Cooley needs to be ranked higher.-McNabb has proven that he looks for the TE, see Celek-Kyle Shanahan has proven that he will use TE early and often (see Owen Daniels)-First pre-season game Cooley has 3 catches in first half. I see a bounce back year.

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:X Evan Silva and I just had this conversation and moved him up the Rotoworld Draft Guide rankings.

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I was actually just thinking the same thing (McNabb and Shanahan are too damn good to preside over a mediocre passing offense), but Santana Moss, not Chris Cooley, is going to be the primary beneficiary of that belief.

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I like both Cooley and Moss.

HenryMuto said:

F&L I got a question here.Harvin ? Shall I go after him ? We are on pick 72, I am up at pick 73 next (slow dynasty start up draft) PPR league.So do I go for Harvin with all his problems or do I take my 1st QB ?This is an important pick in my draft as my next pick is 105.Harvin is the last upside young WR on your rankings in the top 25.Current team (line ups 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex)Peterson, Stewart, GreeneMarshall, Nicks, Welker, Dez BryantFinleyThe QBs left are all of them except the Big 7 (Rodgers thru Schaub)So it comes down to the last big time potential WR (we can start up to 5) or going with a QB for my futureWhich do you think is the best call ? Harvin and his upside or lock down a sure fire young QB for the future ?I am struggling on this. I won't be picking until probably 5 PM tomorrow since pick 72 is still sitting around and I work tomorrow.So any thoughts on this situation with my current team. Thanks.Also PS I still use your rankings (along with my own) and I really think most of the players are spot on. The only one I really disagree with is Marshall I have him as the #4 dynasty WR I am a big believer in him in a PPR league. I trade out Fitz and my 2011 1st for Marshall and Nicks in this draft during it.Anyway hope you guys can give me some ideas on this one.Thanks.

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i wouldn't overthink this one. if you like harvin as a high upside guy (and it sounds like you do), take him. you can start 7 RB/WRs, and only 1 QB, and it sounds like it's PPR. QBs are devalued in your league. you'll be able to find someone serviceable...i wouldn't worry about it.

az_prof said:

Patoons said:

Can we talk a little about where people are ranking Mike Thomas? Yes, the guy had limited playing time in his rookie year, but he closed the year with 40+ rec and 400+ yards receiving. FBG has him ranked in the mid-50's among WRs, SSOG has him at 56 and F&L has him at 61. (Granted these may not consider the most recent news that he's considered the #2 in Jax right now).

To me, in a PPR, there is no way Thomas should be ranked lower than the mid-30's. I'd easily take him over the likes of Santana Moss, Steve Breaston, Hines Ward. The upside with him is tremendous. Watching him on occasion last year... all he did was find the open spots much like Steve Smith does for the Giants.

Thomas is a prime target and even warrants some overpayment of his current value in a PPR to get him on your squad sooner than later.

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The problem is that his rookie year, while promising, was not stellar. And he plays in a pretty blah offense with a pretty blah QB. So, while he MAY improve, it seems like his ceiling is pretty low. He is a guy I wouldn't mind as a WR5 but I wouldn't want to rely on him every week.

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There are many rookie WR's who don't put up top 50 numbers and go on to have nice careers. As far as situation... sure it matters, but things change fast in the NFL. I wouldn't downgrade Fitz or Crabtree in a Dynasty because of their situation. I understand not liking Thomas, but not for the reasons you stated above.

benm3218 said:

Ted Lange as your Bartender said:

Dynasty faceoff question: Percy Harvin vs Steve Smith North. I feel like both of them are generally underrated. Percy seems like the higher ceiling but much higher risk prospect, but I guess my question is how much higher is Percy's ceiling, and is it worth his lower floor (migraines, missing practices, what happens when Favre eventually someday retires for real)?For those of you that prefer Smith, would you feel the same way in a league where there were points for return yardage (say 1 pt per 25 yards)? In other words, is it close enough that return yardage flips the equation?

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I would prefer Percy over Smith north by quite a bit. Smith has lower ceiling to me... Last year in my opinion was a career year for him.

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While you could end up being correct, that was only his third season in the NFL - he could produce many similar years for many more years.As far as comparing him to Harvin it comes down to a discussion that was engaged in earlier in this thread regarding "talent". On the basis of what most will consider "talent" (i.e. measurables. athleticism) Harvin looks like the much better prospect. Smith however has "talents" that will also lead to many years of high end production. He's a tremendous route runner, strong on the ball and a smart player with small area quicks.As an example, Jerry Rice was hardly the most "talented" WR of all time - based on what most message boarders consider "talent", but he was obviously the best WR of all time. There's more to being a WR than measurables is the point, not that Smith in anyway comapres to Rice.I think Smith will be very comparable numberswise to Harvin when all is said and done. Harvin will be the more impressive WR to watch play, Smith will likely be the one mor likely to catch 6-7 balls each week.

SSOG said:

I was actually just thinking the same thing (McNabb and Shanahan are too damn good to preside over a mediocre passing offense), but Santana Moss, not Chris Cooley, is going to be the primary beneficiary of that belief.

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I agree with this. Moss is undervalued right now IMO.

Chris Cooley should finnish right around TE6 (I suspect even higher) which is where his average has been over his career so far. Two years under Zorn really are what has pushed that lower. He just wasn't targeted in the endzone and was forced to stay in to block because of a woefull line. I think Zorns inept offense being gone and a remodled O-line will impact Cooleys ranking as much if not more than Shanahan or McNabb will.

As for those saying Fred Davis will eat into Cooleys stats, well thats nearly absurd. Davis emerged because there just wasn't any other options at all on offense the second half of last season. i don't see Coaches sitting a pro Bowl Te who has done a great job through out his career for a guy who did it for almost a half a season. Fred Davis' stats will come at the expense of the WR corps and not Cooleys

Dr. Octopus said:

benm3218 said:

Ted Lange as your Bartender said:

Dynasty faceoff question: Percy Harvin vs Steve Smith North. I feel like both of them are generally underrated. Percy seems like the higher ceiling but much higher risk prospect, but I guess my question is how much higher is Percy's ceiling, and is it worth his lower floor (migraines, missing practices, what happens when Favre eventually someday retires for real)?For those of you that prefer Smith, would you feel the same way in a league where there were points for return yardage (say 1 pt per 25 yards)? In other words, is it close enough that return yardage flips the equation?

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I would prefer Percy over Smith north by quite a bit. Smith has lower ceiling to me... Last year in my opinion was a career year for him.

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While you could end up being correct, that was only his third season in the NFL - he could produce many similar years for many more years.As far as comparing him to Harvin it comes down to a discussion that was engaged in earlier in this thread regarding "talent". On the basis of what most will consider "talent" (i.e. measurables. athleticism) Harvin looks like the much better prospect. Smith however has "talents" that will also lead to many years of high end production. He's a tremendous route runner, strong on the ball and a smart player with small area quicks.As an example, Jerry Rice was hardly the most "talented" WR of all time - based on what most message boarders consider "talent", but he was obviously the best WR of all time. There's more to being a WR than measurables is the point, not that Smith in anyway comapres to Rice.I think Smith will be very comparable numberswise to Harvin when all is said and done. Harvin will be the more impressive WR to watch play, Smith will likely be the one mor likely to catch 6-7 balls each week.

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The idea that Harvin is lacking in those areas is the same thing that led all the "Harvin would make a great RB, but he's raw as a wide receiver" people to miss out on him in rookie drafts.Harvin is exceptional at attacking the ball in the air, and has tremendous hands. Route running I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt to Smith in since, but Harvin is underrated in that regard as well.I'm with benm on this one, Smith just wreaks of one of those guys that kind of comes out of nowhere to have a good year and then fades back into obscurity to me.

crnerblitz said:

Chris Cooley should finnish right around TE6 (I suspect even higher) which is where his average has been over his career so far. Two years under Zorn really are what has pushed that lower. He just wasn't targeted in the endzone and was forced to stay in to block because of a woefull line. I think Zorns inept offense being gone and a remodled O-line will impact Cooleys ranking as much if not more than Shanahan or McNabb will. As for those saying Fred Davis will eat into Cooleys stats, well thats nearly absurd. Davis emerged because there just wasn't any other options at all on offense the second half of last season. i don't see Coaches sitting a pro Bowl Te who has done a great job through out his career for a guy who did it for almost a half a season. Fred Davis' stats will come at the expense of the WR corps and not Cooleys

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Davis may take some red zone looks but throughout training camp Davis has focused on the deeper routes whereas Cooley has more of the underneath stuff which should really bump him in PPR leagues. Cooley is a beast when it comes to breaking tackles so this shouldn't affect his yards negatively at all. 85/925/6.

FreeBaGeL said:

Dr. Octopus said:

benm3218 said:

Ted Lange as your Bartender said:

Dynasty faceoff question: Percy Harvin vs Steve Smith North. I feel like both of them are generally underrated. Percy seems like the higher ceiling but much higher risk prospect, but I guess my question is how much higher is Percy's ceiling, and is it worth his lower floor (migraines, missing practices, what happens when Favre eventually someday retires for real)?For those of you that prefer Smith, would you feel the same way in a league where there were points for return yardage (say 1 pt per 25 yards)? In other words, is it close enough that return yardage flips the equation?

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I would prefer Percy over Smith north by quite a bit. Smith has lower ceiling to me... Last year in my opinion was a career year for him.

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While you could end up being correct, that was only his third season in the NFL - he could produce many similar years for many more years.As far as comparing him to Harvin it comes down to a discussion that was engaged in earlier in this thread regarding "talent". On the basis of what most will consider "talent" (i.e. measurables. athleticism) Harvin looks like the much better prospect. Smith however has "talents" that will also lead to many years of high end production. He's a tremendous route runner, strong on the ball and a smart player with small area quicks.As an example, Jerry Rice was hardly the most "talented" WR of all time - based on what most message boarders consider "talent", but he was obviously the best WR of all time. There's more to being a WR than measurables is the point, not that Smith in anyway comapres to Rice.I think Smith will be very comparable numberswise to Harvin when all is said and done. Harvin will be the more impressive WR to watch play, Smith will likely be the one mor likely to catch 6-7 balls each week.

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The idea that Harvin is lacking in those areas is the same thing that led all the "Harvin would make a great RB, but he's raw as a wide receiver" people to miss out on him in rookie drafts.Harvin is exceptional at attacking the ball in the air, and has tremendous hands. Route running I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt to Smith in since, but Harvin is underrated in that regard as well.I'm with benm on this one, Smith just wreaks of one of those guys that kind of comes out of nowhere to have a good year and then fades back into obscurity to me.

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I wasn't trying to imply Harvin was lacking the necessary skills to be a good WR, as he obviously proved otherwise.As far as Smith being a "one-hit wonder", I think people are still selling him short. It's not like he came out of nowhere, he was a second round draft pick out of USC who has shown improvement in each season. He was also highly touted by FBG's Matt Waldman in his Scouting Portfolio as the best WR in the 2007 draft class.I'm not necessarily disagreeing with those that prefer Harvin, because given the choice of the two I take Harvin as well. I just think people see the gap as much larger than they should.

Is there an expert consensus on Best vs. Matthews? I will surely be able to nab one of these rookies in my auction dynasty draft.

jdoggydogg said:

Is there an expert consensus on Best vs. Matthews? I will surely be able to nab one of these rookies in my auction dynasty draft.

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I think you'll be happy with either. Both guys have the talent and opportunity to produce immediately. Mathews has the edge in non-PPR because he should score more TDs. Best has the edge in PPR because he should catch more passes. Assuming both guys stay healthy, I think they'll become instant impact players for FF purposes.

EBF said:

jdoggydogg said:

Is there an expert consensus on Best vs. Matthews? I will surely be able to nab one of these rookies in my auction dynasty draft.

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I think you'll be happy with either. Both guys have the talent and opportunity to produce immediately. Mathews has the edge in non-PPR because he should score more TDs. Best has the edge in PPR because he should catch more passes. Assuming both guys stay healthy, I think they'll become instant impact players for FF purposes.

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Sweet. My league always undervalues rookies. I may draft both of them.

EBF said:

jdoggydogg said:

Is there an expert consensus on Best vs. Matthews? I will surely be able to nab one of these rookies in my auction dynasty draft.

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I think you'll be happy with either. Both guys have the talent and opportunity to produce immediately. Mathews has the edge in non-PPR because he should score more TDs. Best has the edge in PPR because he should catch more passes. Assuming both guys stay healthy, I think they'll become instant impact players for FF purposes.

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Dr. Octopus said:

FreeBaGeL said:

Dr. Octopus said:

benm3218 said:

Ted Lange as your Bartender said:

Dynasty faceoff question: Percy Harvin vs Steve Smith North. I feel like both of them are generally underrated. Percy seems like the higher ceiling but much higher risk prospect, but I guess my question is how much higher is Percy's ceiling, and is it worth his lower floor (migraines, missing practices, what happens when Favre eventually someday retires for real)?For those of you that prefer Smith, would you feel the same way in a league where there were points for return yardage (say 1 pt per 25 yards)? In other words, is it close enough that return yardage flips the equation?

Click to expand...

I would prefer Percy over Smith north by quite a bit. Smith has lower ceiling to me... Last year in my opinion was a career year for him.

Click to expand...

While you could end up being correct, that was only his third season in the NFL - he could produce many similar years for many more years.As far as comparing him to Harvin it comes down to a discussion that was engaged in earlier in this thread regarding "talent". On the basis of what most will consider "talent" (i.e. measurables. athleticism) Harvin looks like the much better prospect. Smith however has "talents" that will also lead to many years of high end production. He's a tremendous route runner, strong on the ball and a smart player with small area quicks.As an example, Jerry Rice was hardly the most "talented" WR of all time - based on what most message boarders consider "talent", but he was obviously the best WR of all time. There's more to being a WR than measurables is the point, not that Smith in anyway comapres to Rice.I think Smith will be very comparable numberswise to Harvin when all is said and done. Harvin will be the more impressive WR to watch play, Smith will likely be the one mor likely to catch 6-7 balls each week.

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The idea that Harvin is lacking in those areas is the same thing that led all the "Harvin would make a great RB, but he's raw as a wide receiver" people to miss out on him in rookie drafts.Harvin is exceptional at attacking the ball in the air, and has tremendous hands. Route running I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt to Smith in since, but Harvin is underrated in that regard as well.I'm with benm on this one, Smith just wreaks of one of those guys that kind of comes out of nowhere to have a good year and then fades back into obscurity to me.

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I wasn't trying to imply Harvin was lacking the necessary skills to be a good WR, as he obviously proved otherwise.As far as Smith being a "one-hit wonder", I think people are still selling him short. It's not like he came out of nowhere, he was a second round draft pick out of USC who has shown improvement in each season. He was also highly touted by FBG's Matt Waldman in his Scouting Portfolio as the best WR in the 2007 draft class.I'm not necessarily disagreeing with those that prefer Harvin, because given the choice of the two I take Harvin as well. I just think people see the gap as much larger than they should.

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Well, I didn't mean to imply he would be a one hit wonder. But, more that I think we have seen his best and although good it isn't amazing. I think Harvin has a chance to be a lot better than Smith.

Fear & Loathing said:

Patoons said:

GreatLakesMike said:

I'm not saying Thomas is the next Steve Smith, but I think you're selling him a bit short (no pun intended). Thomas is only 5'8", but he has a 40+ inch vertical and he attacks the ball. He has good hands and runs good routes. I think he's someone to definitely keep an eye on.ETA: I think Thomas passes the "eye test."

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I generally agree here.Ranking Thomas behind guys like J.Jones, Tate, J.Nelson, Schilens, Dev Thomas, etc. is significantly undervaluing him. He's already proven a lot more than they have and he only needed one year in the NFL to do it. Watching Thomas towards the end of the season, all he did was find the open spots in the defnese. I don't care what his situation is... if he's going to get open, he'll see his targets. Thomas certainly passes the eye test in my book. A year ago, I wasn't a fan of his coming in to the league, but watching him towards the end of year... I'm a believer. On the burner comment, I don't think he's one nor will he need to be. I see him more as a possession guy at this level similar to Smith of the Giants. The knock on Smith was always that he's more of a slot guy... well, he proved that wrong last season. It's a similar situation with Thomas. He'll be the #2 on the outside and more to the slot in 3 WR sets. I really think the masses are generally dismissing Thomas too soon. My prediction, as nuts as it may seem to most of you, is a top 25-30 finish for Thomas in PPR leagues in 2010.

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One of the major discrepancies here is that I'm not (and I don't think SSOG is, either) ranking for PPR. You're comparing your PPR projections for Mike Thomas against our non-PPR ranks of him.

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Excellent point that I'm sure others miss just like me. WRs like Thomas and Douglas are generally more valuable in PPR leagues where they may catch more short passes. Thanks F&L.

Meast21 said:

crnerblitz said:

Chris Cooley should finnish right around TE6 (I suspect even higher) which is where his average has been over his career so far. Two years under Zorn really are what has pushed that lower. He just wasn't targeted in the endzone and was forced to stay in to block because of a woefull line. I think Zorns inept offense being gone and a remodled O-line will impact Cooleys ranking as much if not more than Shanahan or McNabb will. As for those saying Fred Davis will eat into Cooleys stats, well thats nearly absurd. Davis emerged because there just wasn't any other options at all on offense the second half of last season. i don't see Coaches sitting a pro Bowl Te who has done a great job through out his career for a guy who did it for almost a half a season. Fred Davis' stats will come at the expense of the WR corps and not Cooleys

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Davis may take some red zone looks but throughout training camp Davis has focused on the deeper routes whereas Cooley has more of the underneath stuff which should really bump him in PPR leagues. Cooley is a beast when it comes to breaking tackles so this shouldn't affect his yards negatively at all. 85/925/6.

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That sure seems awfully high for a TE under Shanahan not named Shannon Sharpe. I just don't see that type of production from Cooley who has never approached those types of numbers and is now looking at a chunk of his targets getting taken away by a younger, faster model of himself in F.Davis. I think Cooley could be pretty good, but I think he is around TE8-10.....I think guys like O.D., Z.Miller, Winslow, and Carlson are right in the mix with him for those TE7-10 spots.

Go deep said:

Go deep said:

Fear & Loathing said:

Fullback Fro said:

Cooley needs to be ranked higher.-McNabb has proven that he looks for the TE, see Celek-Kyle Shanahan has proven that he will use TE early and often (see Owen Daniels)-First pre-season game Cooley has 3 catches in first half. I see a bounce back year.

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Evan Silva and I just had this conversation and moved him up the Rotoworld Draft Guide rankings.

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The one problem i see with Cooley is Fred Davis, he is the real deal.

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Well, i guess the other problem i have with Cooley now is his injury...tough break.(no pun intended)

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What injury?

geoff8695 said:

Go deep said:

Go deep said:

Fear & Loathing said:

Fullback Fro said:

Cooley needs to be ranked higher.-McNabb has proven that he looks for the TE, see Celek-Kyle Shanahan has proven that he will use TE early and often (see Owen Daniels)-First pre-season game Cooley has 3 catches in first half. I see a bounce back year.

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Evan Silva and I just had this conversation and moved him up the Rotoworld Draft Guide rankings.

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The one problem i see with Cooley is Fred Davis, he is the real deal.

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Well, i guess the other problem i have with Cooley now is his injury...tough break.(no pun intended)

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What injury?

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Nevermind, someone bumped last years Cooley injury thread.

F&L, is Sons of the Tundra dead and, if so, will you be offering free year-round dynasty rankings on Rotoworld?

tonka said:

F&L, is Sons of the Tundra dead and, if so, will you be offering free year-round dynasty rankings on Rotoworld?

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This question has been answered many times. One of those times is on this page.

Fear & Loathing said:

One of the major discrepancies here is that I'm not (and I don't think SSOG is, either) ranking for PPR. You're comparing your PPR projections for Mike Thomas against our non-PPR ranks of him.

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Yea, I suppose that's part of it, but I still think he'll be better than a large number of receivers you guys (and most others for that matter) have ahead of Thomas. I'd gladly rely on him as a WR#3/#4 in a non-PPR league.To the comment on Thomas have a season like Smith's last year of 100+ catches... that wasn't my point. My point was that he's being pigeon-holed as a slot receiver by many like Smith was previously. This year, like Smith's last year, will be a breakout for Thomas. I don't think it will be to the same degree Smith exploded, but solid WR#3/low-end #2 depending on your format and league size.On to something different. I think you guys are right on the mark with Cooley - he's definitely undervalued.

Meast21 said:

Davis may take some red zone looks but throughout training camp Davis has focused on the deeper routes whereas Cooley has more of the underneath stuff which should really bump him in PPR leagues. Cooley is a beast when it comes to breaking tackles so this shouldn't affect his yards negatively at all. 85/925/6.

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I'm confused. First you say that Davis will take red zone looks, then you predict Cooley right at his career TD average anyway. You admit that Davis is going to be taking a portion of the TE workload, and then project Cooley for career highs in receptions. You say Cooley's going to lose his deep balls and get a bunch of junky short receptions, and then you project Cooley to finish right at his career average in yards per reception (while setting a new career high in receiving yards).Your words are saying one thing, but your projections are saying another.

Just Win Baby said:

I agree with this. Moss is undervalued right now IMO.

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I just updated my WR/TE rankings, and Moss was the big mover, going from 33rd to 25th.

kremenull said:

That sure seems awfully high for a TE under Shanahan not named Shannon Sharpe. I just don't see that type of production from Cooley who has never approached those types of numbers and is now looking at a chunk of his targets getting taken away by a younger, faster model of himself in F.Davis. I think Cooley could be pretty good, but I think he is around TE8-10.....I think guys like O.D., Z.Miller, Winslow, and Carlson are right in the mix with him for those TE7-10 spots.

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In fairness, Shanahan's offense has always produced fantastic numbers from his TEs, it's just that when Sharpe wasn't around they were spread around among 2-3 different TEs. Of course, that's not particularly comforting for Chris Cooley owners, who are likely to see Shanahan spreading the TE production between two different TEs again.

ItsOnlytheRiver said:

tonka said:

F&L, is Sons of the Tundra dead and, if so, will you be offering free year-round dynasty rankings on Rotoworld?

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This question has been answered many times. One of those times is on this page.

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The thread is 211 pages long. I tend to cut people a bit of slack because it's not like I expect them to read all 211 pages (or read just this one page on the very small chance that the question was asked in the last day or two). There are some exceptions- if it's breaking news, then read the most recent pages because someone probably brought it up already. If you're wondering about a particular player, use the thread search feature. Other than that, though... in a thread this size, you're going to wind up answering the same question multiple times. It's just a fact of life.

The thread is 211 pages long. I tend to cut people a bit of slack because it's not like I expect them to read all 211 pages (or read just this one page on the very small chance that the question was asked in the last day or two). There are some exceptions- if it's breaking news, then read the most recent pages because someone probably brought it up already. If you're wondering about a particular player, use the thread search feature. Other than that, though... in a thread this size, you're going to wind up answering the same question multiple times. It's just a fact of life.

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I can certainly understand that. It's why I did not say anything the first four times it was asked, but I really don't think scrolling the current page is all that difficult. The posts are always with in the last few days and worth reading anyway.

SSOG said:

Just Win Baby said:

I agree with this. Moss is undervalued right now IMO.

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I just updated my WR/TE rankings, and Moss was the big mover, going from 33rd to 25th.

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I understand buying into the Santanamania in redraft leagues, but to rank him over Maclin, Wallace, Britt, Bowe, and Thomas in dynasty rankings is lunacy. Would you accept a straight up trade of Maclin for Moss? Would you trade a 2010 mid 1st for Moss? I can't think of any people who would. His trade value is closer to the Laurent, James Jones, Aromashodu grab bag tier than it is the pedigree WR tier with Maclin, Bowe, and Thomas.Both F&L and SSOG continue to rank Mike Williams too low. Behind Braylon Edwards? You wouldn't trade Braylon Edwards for Williams? Williams is going in the same round as Braylon in some redraft leagues now. Redraft leagues. SSOG putting Benn one spot ahead of Williams seems like he's just not following the situation there, or at least hasn't reflected it in his rankings.

thriftyrocker said:

SSOG said:

Just Win Baby said:

I agree with this. Moss is undervalued right now IMO.

Click to expand...

I just updated my WR/TE rankings, and Moss was the big mover, going from 33rd to 25th.

Click to expand...

I understand buying into the Santanamania in redraft leagues, but to rank him over Maclin, Wallace, Britt, Bowe, and Thomas in dynasty rankings is lunacy. Would you accept a straight up trade of Maclin for Moss? Would you trade a 2010 mid 1st for Moss? I can't think of any people who would. His trade value is closer to the Laurent, James Jones, Aromashodu grab bag tier than it is the pedigree WR tier with Maclin, Bowe, and Thomas.Both F&L and SSOG continue to rank Mike Williams too low. Behind Braylon Edwards? You wouldn't trade Braylon Edwards for Williams? Williams is going in the same round as Braylon in some redraft leagues now. Redraft leagues. SSOG putting Benn one spot ahead of Williams seems like he's just not following the situation there, or at least hasn't reflected it in his rankings.

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Yeah, he's moved up since I last updated.

I was thinking today about how homerism comes into play when evaluating and ranking players for dynasty. For example, I have Stafford ranked as a top 10 dynasty QB, and I am extremely high on Calvin Johnson (took him in two leagues as the #1 WR off the board). Most of the time I get blasted for being a homer and ranking them much higher than they should be. My view is that if anyone is likely to have a better read on a player, it seems logical that it would be someone who has seen every snap they have taken at the NFL level. I don't view it as blind homerism, as I told anyone who would listen that Kevin Smith was an average talent due to fall off a cliff at some point. It seems we are often quick to dismiss the views of a local fan, when in reality I think those views should be the ones we pay most attention to, outside a few cases of completely unrealistic expectations.

Thoughts?

MrTwo94 said:

Very, very narrow thinking here. And wrong, too. A team can upgrade a punter without anticipating punting more. They could just want to punt more effectively when they have to. Which is exactly what the Jets were trying to accomplish by upgrading their WR. They don't necessarily want to pass more, just pass more effectively when they do need to pass. I really feel like you are just being stubborn here. This is not a difficult concept to grasp.

As for your analysis on the stats I gave you, no, those situations don't seem comparable to me. Only if you really dumb it down do they seem comparable. What you are missing* is that their rushing attack wasn't all that potent. They just stuck with it because they could. They were 19th in ypc in the league yet they led the league in yards. So did they really have the #1 running game? If you only look at total yards, then yes, but in reality, no. The Jets had extremely lopsided playcalling last year and still maintained a top 5 ypc stat. To me that indicates a much stronger run game. They also achieved a #1 defensive ranking despite the fact that their offense was giving the ball away just as quickly as they could steal it from the other team's offense. Pit had a +11 ratio in Ben's rookie year. So as the Jets decrease turnovers, the easier it will be for their defense to remain at the top.

And while this is a dynasty thread, I think people would like returns on their investments sooner rather than later. The Jets o-line is very young and Rex Ryan will likely maintain a strong defense. If anyone really believes in Sanchez then I hope they are very patient.

*I put an asterisk there because I've seen your stat breakdowns before. You would see this if you wanted to. I agree that things change quickly in the NFL, but I think signs point to this situation being unique. Anyone acquiring Sanchez in a dynasty league should do so expecting their return on investment to take longer than usual for a 2nd year QB who started his rookie year. Or at the very least, for the increase in production from year 1 to 2 to 3 to be in small increments.

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You say that watching a team improve its WRs and watching a QB turn from a rookie into a sophomore and assuming it means they intend to pass more is "narrow thinking". Personally, I think that expecting a team to continue carrying the ball 600 times a season with an unproven RB1, a developing QB (who happened to be a top 5 NFL draft pick), and four legitimate weapons in the passing game is "narrow thinking". It's expecting a team to maintain the status quo rather than trying to identify changes before they're upon us. You say I'm wrong. I respect that you feel that way, but unless you've got a crystal ball, I say you're just guessing. Time will tell.I understand that Sanchez will take a while to show a return on his investment. I just had a discussion about this very topic a couple of days ago, comparing Mark Sanchez to Matt Stafford, saying that while I think Sanchez is a better prospect and will be a better QB, I'd rather have Stafford because he'll give me an immediate return on my investment. You aren't telling me anything that I haven't already posted about. Even the Ben Roethlisberger comparison that I'm making doesn't suggest he's going to be fantasy relevant immediately- Roethlisberger wasn't startable until his 4th season.

Yes, the Jets were unbelievable running the ball last season. All I'm saying is that they are not going to continue running the ball 600 times a year with a top 5 NFL draft pick at QB and a receiving corps of Braylon/Santonio/Jerrico/Dustin. Not going to happen. Will they still emphasize the run going forward? Probably as much as any other run-heavy team emphasizes the run. Like remember the 1995-2006 Denver Broncos? They emphasized the run an awful lot, and they were darn good at it, to boot. That didn't stop them from getting fantasy stud seasons out of Elway ('95-'98), Griese ('00), and Plummer ('03-'04). It also didn't stop the running game from eventually faltering and giving way to a pass-first attack and a stud season from Jay Cutler ('08).

As I see it, burying a top-5 draft pick because he plays for a team that has an awesome running game is the real "narrow thinking", here.

thriftyrocker said:

I understand buying into the Santanamania in redraft leagues, but to rank him over Maclin, Wallace, Britt, Bowe, and Thomas in dynasty rankings is lunacy. Would you accept a straight up trade of Maclin for Moss? Would you trade a 2010 mid 1st for Moss? I can't think of any people who would. His trade value is closer to the Laurent, James Jones, Aromashodu grab bag tier than it is the pedigree WR tier with Maclin, Bowe, and Thomas.

Both F&L and SSOG continue to rank Mike Williams too low. Behind Braylon Edwards? You wouldn't trade Braylon Edwards for Williams? Williams is going in the same round as Braylon in some redraft leagues now. Redraft leagues. SSOG putting Benn one spot ahead of Williams seems like he's just not following the situation there, or at least hasn't reflected it in his rankings.

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If he's above them in my rankings, I would trade them for him. If others underrate him and would let him go for less than that, so much the better.I'm open to the possibility that I've got Mike Williams too low, or that I'm overlooking something in Tampa. This isn't my full-time job, so I can't devote the hours to it that I would like. With that said... one WR was drafted 39th, one was drafted 101st. One strong offseason isn't enough to make me completely forget that fact. Nor will it make me forget the fact that he was suspended for an entire season for academic reasons, or the fact that he faced a second suspension for violating team rules and instead opted to just quit the football team entirely. It's a testament to Williams that he's managed to close the gap in the rankings between himself and Benn in such a short time, but I'm not going to go too crazy based on one good offseason for a guy who's still never caught an NFL pass.

The Real Hipster Doofus said:

I was thinking today about how homerism comes into play when evaluating and ranking players for dynasty. For example, I have Stafford ranked as a top 10 dynasty QB, and I am extremely high on Calvin Johnson (took him in two leagues as the #1 WR off the board). Most of the time I get blasted for being a homer and ranking them much higher than they should be. My view is that if anyone is likely to have a better read on a player, it seems logical that it would be someone who has seen every snap they have taken at the NFL level. I don't view it as blind homerism, as I told anyone who would listen that Kevin Smith was an average talent due to fall off a cliff at some point. It seems we are often quick to dismiss the views of a local fan, when in reality I think those views should be the ones we pay most attention to, outside a few cases of completely unrealistic expectations. Thoughts?

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I agree that the "home-town fan" has a greater wealth of knowledge to draw upon with respect to local players. With that said, their weakness is that they don't have the proper context with which to frame that knowledge.Let's use Calvin as an example. You say that you've seen every snap that he's taken, and you have him as your #1 WR. I get that seeing every snap he's taken makes you uniquely qualified to weigh in on him... but have you seen every snap Fitzgerald has taken? Andre Johnson? I strongly suspect that if you had seen every snap those guys had taken but seen a smaller sampling from the other two, you'd have one of those guys rated #1 overall right now.Having outstanding knowledge about a particular player gives you a big advantage in dynasty leagues. Having an outstanding sense of context gives you a bigger one.

SSOG said:

The Real Hipster Doofus said:

I was thinking today about how homerism comes into play when evaluating and ranking players for dynasty. For example, I have Stafford ranked as a top 10 dynasty QB, and I am extremely high on Calvin Johnson (took him in two leagues as the #1 WR off the board). Most of the time I get blasted for being a homer and ranking them much higher than they should be. My view is that if anyone is likely to have a better read on a player, it seems logical that it would be someone who has seen every snap they have taken at the NFL level. I don't view it as blind homerism, as I told anyone who would listen that Kevin Smith was an average talent due to fall off a cliff at some point. It seems we are often quick to dismiss the views of a local fan, when in reality I think those views should be the ones we pay most attention to, outside a few cases of completely unrealistic expectations. Thoughts?

Click to expand...

I agree that the "home-town fan" has a greater wealth of knowledge to draw upon with respect to local players. With that said, their weakness is that they don't have the proper context with which to frame that knowledge.Let's use Calvin as an example. You say that you've seen every snap that he's taken, and you have him as your #1 WR. I get that seeing every snap he's taken makes you uniquely qualified to weigh in on him... but have you seen every snap Fitzgerald has taken? Andre Johnson? I strongly suspect that if you had seen every snap those guys had taken but seen a smaller sampling from the other two, you'd have one of those guys rated #1 overall right now.Having outstanding knowledge about a particular player gives you a big advantage in dynasty leagues. Having an outstanding sense of context gives you a bigger one.

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Thats a fair point. I definitely have not seen every snap of those two, more like 3-4 games of each season of each player. I did trade for Fitzgerald in two leagues this offseason, both deals in which the majority of owners told me I was way overpaying. I feel pretty confident that Fitz is an elite 1200+/9+ WR for at least the next 5 years. As good as those two are, I just think Calvin will be better. Look at what he did in 2008 as a 2nd year player with Dan Orlovsky, Jon Kitna and the washed up Daunte Culpepper throwing him the ball. I can understand why others would not agree with me, but that is what makes it all interesting.

The Real Hipster Doofus said:

SSOG said:

The Real Hipster Doofus said:

I was thinking today about how homerism comes into play when evaluating and ranking players for dynasty. For example, I have Stafford ranked as a top 10 dynasty QB, and I am extremely high on Calvin Johnson (took him in two leagues as the #1 WR off the board). Most of the time I get blasted for being a homer and ranking them much higher than they should be. My view is that if anyone is likely to have a better read on a player, it seems logical that it would be someone who has seen every snap they have taken at the NFL level. I don't view it as blind homerism, as I told anyone who would listen that Kevin Smith was an average talent due to fall off a cliff at some point. It seems we are often quick to dismiss the views of a local fan, when in reality I think those views should be the ones we pay most attention to, outside a few cases of completely unrealistic expectations. Thoughts?

Click to expand...

I agree that the "home-town fan" has a greater wealth of knowledge to draw upon with respect to local players. With that said, their weakness is that they don't have the proper context with which to frame that knowledge.Let's use Calvin as an example. You say that you've seen every snap that he's taken, and you have him as your #1 WR. I get that seeing every snap he's taken makes you uniquely qualified to weigh in on him... but have you seen every snap Fitzgerald has taken? Andre Johnson? I strongly suspect that if you had seen every snap those guys had taken but seen a smaller sampling from the other two, you'd have one of those guys rated #1 overall right now.Having outstanding knowledge about a particular player gives you a big advantage in dynasty leagues. Having an outstanding sense of context gives you a bigger one.

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Thats a fair point. I definitely have not seen every snap of those two, more like 3-4 games of each season of each player. I did trade for Fitzgerald in two leagues this offseason, both deals in which the majority of owners told me I was way overpaying. I feel pretty confident that Fitz is an elite 1200+/9+ WR for at least the next 5 years. As good as those two are, I just think Calvin will be better. Look at what he did in 2008 as a 2nd year player with Dan Orlovsky, Jon Kitna and the washed up Daunte Culpepper throwing him the ball. I can understand why others would not agree with me, but that is what makes it all interesting.

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I just came in here to pat myself on the back for trading Arian Foster and Sidney Rice for Calvin. I'm probably just as high on CJ as TRHD, and I also get to pair him with Fitz, so I've got that going for me.

The Real Hipster Doofus said:

I was thinking today about how homerism comes into play when evaluating and ranking players for dynasty. For example, I have Stafford ranked as a top 10 dynasty QB, and I am extremely high on Calvin Johnson (took him in two leagues as the #1 WR off the board). Most of the time I get blasted for being a homer and ranking them much higher than they should be. My view is that if anyone is likely to have a better read on a player, it seems logical that it would be someone who has seen every snap they have taken at the NFL level. I don't view it as blind homerism, as I told anyone who would listen that Kevin Smith was an average talent due to fall off a cliff at some point. It seems we are often quick to dismiss the views of a local fan, when in reality I think those views should be the ones we pay most attention to, outside a few cases of completely unrealistic expectations. Thoughts?

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It's the exposure effect. People tend to exaggerate the talent level of players that are familiar to them. To give you an example, I'm a big fan of Stanford QB Andrew Luck because I saw him play several times last season and came away impressed with his potential. If you asked me who the top NFL QB prospect in college football is, I would say Luck.If you asked the same question to someone in Arkansas or Washington, they would probably say Ryan Mallett or Jake Locker. When you see a guy play, you get a chance to develop an appreciation for his skills. When you don't see a guy play, you don't get that chance. I don't trust homers any more than the average fan because they are typically too optimistic about their own players. A lot of the Stanford fans acted like it was an outrage that Toby Gerhart wasn'ta first round pick. That's because he seemed extremely exceptional in the context of recent Stanford RBs. However, in the context of all recent college RBs or even all recent Pac-10 RBs, he was much more ordinary. If anything, the people you should listen to are the die hard fans who have no allegiance to any particular team or conference. They're likely to be knowledgeable and unbiased. Fans of a particular school or conference will often overrate its talent (every SEC fan thinks their conference is miles beyond the rest even though the gap in NFL talent per team between the SEC and Pac-10/Big 10 is extremely slim).

The Real Hipster Doofus said:

I was thinking today about how homerism comes into play when evaluating and ranking players for dynasty. For example, I have Stafford ranked as a top 10 dynasty QB, and I am extremely high on Calvin Johnson (took him in two leagues as the #1 WR off the board). Most of the time I get blasted for being a homer and ranking them much higher than they should be. My view is that if anyone is likely to have a better read on a player, it seems logical that it would be someone who has seen every snap they have taken at the NFL level. I don't view it as blind homerism, as I told anyone who would listen that Kevin Smith was an average talent due to fall off a cliff at some point. It seems we are often quick to dismiss the views of a local fan, when in reality I think those views should be the ones we pay most attention to, outside a few cases of completely unrealistic expectations. Thoughts?

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It's funny - I'm the exact opposite with the Jets. I rarely will draft a Jet and traditionally rank them lower. Maybe it's because I'm afraid of the homerism interfering with my "true" ranking of the players. With that being said, I think local fans have a big advantage in identifying up and coming players. A few years back with Cotchery was 3rd-4th string, I picked him up everywhere I could since Herm Edwards starting playing him a bit more and he looked good in limited times. After that, when a homer starts talking about a lesser known player, I immediately start listening. I agree with you, they have more insight that most of us do outside their local market. The team threads are always an interesting read for me because of this.

SSOG said:

With that said... one WR was drafted 39th, one was drafted 101st. One strong offseason isn't enough to make me completely forget that fact. Nor will it make me forget the fact that he was suspended for an entire season for academic reasons, or the fact that he faced a second suspension for violating team rules and instead opted to just quit the football team entirely.

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I understand being stubborn and resisting knee jerk reactions based on a narrow time frame. I'm not going to move Victor Cruz ahead of Demaryius Thomas in my rankings just because one guy had a good preseason while the other is nursing some health issues. On the other hand, I think you have to be willing to make judgment calls and be flexible in your thinking when situations take dramatic turns. Arrelious Benn was picked ahead of Mike Williams in the draft, but everything out of camp makes it seem like Williams has been the more impressive player. Williams has always been known as a prospect with great boom-or-bust potential. With all the signs pointing towards boom, I'm less and less concerned with his draft position (nevermind the fact that the early 4th round is very high for a guy with so many red flags). It seems like he has shown up focused and ready to maximize his talent. If his own coaches are more impressed with him than they are with Arrelious Benn, why shouldn't I feel the same way? Draft position matters, but so do results. Anquan Boldin was picked below Bryant Johnson, yet Boldin had the sensational training camp and earned the week one starting job. Johnny Knox was picked below Juaquin Iglesias, yet Knox worked his way into the rotation as a rookie while Iglesias did absolutely nothing. In situations where you have two players with somewhat comparable talent levels and pedigrees, I think you have to pay attention to the results and go with the flow. Having said that, it's always a case by case thing. I would rather have Darrius Heyward-Bey than Louis Murphy. I would rather have Andre Roberts than Stephen Williams. Early results don't mean everything, especially when you have a strong negative or positive opinion about one or more of the players involved in the debate. In the case of Williams vs. Benn, my hunch was always that Benn was a chronic underachiever and that Williams had equal or greater upside. With Williams clearly outshining Benn in the early going, I'm willing to adjust my rankings accordingly.

EBF said:

SSOG said:

With that said... one WR was drafted 39th, one was drafted 101st. One strong offseason isn't enough to make me completely forget that fact. Nor will it make me forget the fact that he was suspended for an entire season for academic reasons, or the fact that he faced a second suspension for violating team rules and instead opted to just quit the football team entirely.

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I understand being stubborn and resisting knee jerk reactions based on a narrow time frame. I'm not going to move Victor Cruz ahead of Demaryius Thomas in my rankings just because one guy had a good preseason while the other is nursing some health issues. On the other hand, I think you have to be willing to make judgment calls and be flexible in your thinking when situations take dramatic turns. Arrelious Benn was picked ahead of Mike Williams in the draft, but everything out of camp makes it seem like Williams has been the more impressive player. Williams has always been known as a prospect with great boom-or-bust potential. With all the signs pointing towards boom, I'm less and less concerned with his draft position (nevermind the fact that the early 4th round is very high for a guy with so many red flags). It seems like he has shown up focused and ready to maximize his talent. If his own coaches are more impressed with him than they are with Arrelious Benn, why shouldn't I feel the same way? Draft position matters, but so do results. Anquan Boldin was picked below Bryant Johnson, yet Boldin had the sensational training camp and earned the week one starting job. Johnny Knox was picked below Juaquin Iglesias, yet Knox worked his way into the rotation as a rookie while Iglesias did absolutely nothing. In situations where you have two players with somewhat comparable talent levels and pedigrees, I think you have to pay attention to the results and go with the flow. Having said that, it's always a case by case thing. I would rather have Darrius Heyward-Bey than Louis Murphy. I would rather have Andre Roberts than Stephen Williams. Early results don't mean everything, especially when you have a strong negative or positive opinion about one or more of the players involved in the debate. In the case of Williams vs. Benn, my hunch was always that Benn was a chronic underachiever and that Williams had equal or greater upside. With Williams clearly outshining Benn in the early going, I'm willing to adjust my rankings accordingly.

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Great post EBF. To add to this, it's not like we have reason to doubt Mike Williams in the talent department. I'd be willing to wager that many folks would rate his talent at least as high as Benn's, so it isn't exactly a shock to see him outperform Benn in training camp.

To those more experienced in this format than I, at what point would you shift from dynasty rankings to re-draft rankings in a limited keeper league? For example, a 3-keeper league would be almost exclusively re-draft rankings with heavy emphasis on obtaining 3 studs. But what about 6 keepers? 8? 9? At what point do you think dynasty rankings become the guideline? Similarly, how would you weight the rankings in the gray area in between?

Fear & Loathing said:

Also, I don't worry about "all of Harvin's problems" at all. His migraines don't affect my valuation of him any more than Terrell Davis' did in his prime. Of course, if Harvin misses actual game time once or twice this year (instead of a meaningless training camp), that could change. But as of right now, it's not something I personally am concerned with.

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Well, he already missed 1 game last year... so there's president for him missing time other than meaningless camp and practice reps. It's understandable if you have to see it occur again to consider it a pattern... but from what little I know of chronic migraines, it worries me enough to consider only projecting him to play 15 again.

SSOG said:

thriftyrocker said:

I understand buying into the Santanamania in redraft leagues, but to rank him over Maclin, Wallace, Britt, Bowe, and Thomas in dynasty rankings is lunacy. Would you accept a straight up trade of Maclin for Moss? Would you trade a 2010 mid 1st for Moss? I can't think of any people who would. His trade value is closer to the Laurent, James Jones, Aromashodu grab bag tier than it is the pedigree WR tier with Maclin, Bowe, and Thomas.

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If he's above them in my rankings, I would trade them for him. If others underrate him and would let him go for less than that, so much the better.

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What's the upside for Santana this year? Top 15. If he achieves that, what is he next year? A 32 year old speed-based WR who has had one good year in a row. At that point what is his trade value? 2nd round pick.Consider what we learned about Chad Johnson. He was a top 15 WR last year. His trade value right now is bad to offensive. If anything Chad's talent level is higher than Santana. I would say many times higher. The TO signing is cutting into his value and upside even more.I've watched Santana a lot and he's not the same guy he was. He has been further limited by his QB and by the lack of #2 WR. That 2nd problem still exists unless Devin Thomas takes a step forward. The risk is if he does (which may be low probability due to Thomas' dedication level), he probably takes a step past too.What happens if the Skins trade for VJax tomorrow? You've got a worthless 50 catch 31 year old WR who you just traded Maclin or Demaryius for.

EBF said:

SSOG said:

With that said... one WR was drafted 39th, one was drafted 101st. One strong offseason isn't enough to make me completely forget that fact. Nor will it make me forget the fact that he was suspended for an entire season for academic reasons, or the fact that he faced a second suspension for violating team rules and instead opted to just quit the football team entirely.

Click to expand...

I understand being stubborn and resisting knee jerk reactions based on a narrow time frame. I'm not going to move Victor Cruz ahead of Demaryius Thomas in my rankings just because one guy had a good preseason while the other is nursing some health issues. On the other hand, I think you have to be willing to make judgment calls and be flexible in your thinking when situations take dramatic turns. Arrelious Benn was picked ahead of Mike Williams in the draft, but everything out of camp makes it seem like Williams has been the more impressive player. Williams has always been known as a prospect with great boom-or-bust potential. With all the signs pointing towards boom, I'm less and less concerned with his draft position (nevermind the fact that the early 4th round is very high for a guy with so many red flags). It seems like he has shown up focused and ready to maximize his talent. If his own coaches are more impressed with him than they are with Arrelious Benn, why shouldn't I feel the same way? Draft position matters, but so do results. Anquan Boldin was picked below Bryant Johnson, yet Boldin had the sensational training camp and earned the week one starting job. Johnny Knox was picked below Juaquin Iglesias, yet Knox worked his way into the rotation as a rookie while Iglesias did absolutely nothing. In situations where you have two players with somewhat comparable talent levels and pedigrees, I think you have to pay attention to the results and go with the flow. Having said that, it's always a case by case thing. I would rather have Darrius Heyward-Bey than Louis Murphy. I would rather have Andre Roberts than Stephen Williams. Early results don't mean everything, especially when you have a strong negative or positive opinion about one or more of the players involved in the debate. In the case of Williams vs. Benn, my hunch was always that Benn was a chronic underachiever and that Williams had equal or greater upside. With Williams clearly outshining Benn in the early going, I'm willing to adjust my rankings accordingly.

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And I have no problem with that reasoning at all, I was just explaining why I still had Benn one spot above Williams in my rankings. Dynasty Leagues are a marathon, not a sprint. Williams is off to a better start, there's no question about that, but that doesn't mean I have to put him above on the assumption that he'll automatically have the better finish, too.

thriftyrocker said:

SSOG said:

thriftyrocker said:

I understand buying into the Santanamania in redraft leagues, but to rank him over Maclin, Wallace, Britt, Bowe, and Thomas in dynasty rankings is lunacy. Would you accept a straight up trade of Maclin for Moss? Would you trade a 2010 mid 1st for Moss? I can't think of any people who would. His trade value is closer to the Laurent, James Jones, Aromashodu grab bag tier than it is the pedigree WR tier with Maclin, Bowe, and Thomas.

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If he's above them in my rankings, I would trade them for him. If others underrate him and would let him go for less than that, so much the better.

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What's the upside for Santana this year? Top 15. If he achieves that, what is he next year? A 32 year old speed-based WR who has had one good year in a row. At that point what is his trade value? 2nd round pick.Consider what we learned about Chad Johnson. He was a top 15 WR last year. His trade value right now is bad to offensive. If anything Chad's talent level is higher than Santana. I would say many times higher. The TO signing is cutting into his value and upside even more.I've watched Santana a lot and he's not the same guy he was. He has been further limited by his QB and by the lack of #2 WR. That 2nd problem still exists unless Devin Thomas takes a step forward. The risk is if he does (which may be low probability due to Thomas' dedication level), he probably takes a step past too.What happens if the Skins trade for VJax tomorrow? You've got a worthless 50 catch 31 year old WR who you just traded Maclin or Demaryius for.

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Funny, I could say much the same thing about Reggie Wayne, Randy Moss, or Chad Ochocinco, three other guys who I have rated higher who haven't raised any eyebrows. Trade value is nice, but at the end of the day, it boils down to rostering the guys who are going to score you points. I think there's a very good chance that Santana Moss scores more points for the rest of his career than Jeremy Maclin does. It's not like Jeremy Maclin is this sure-thing up-and-comer who is destined for top-10 greatness. Better WRs than Jeremy Maclin have gone from darling prospects to dead weight before. My contention is that it's a lot easier to get your hands on what Jeremy Maclin offers (upside with no actual history of production) than it is to get your hands on what Santana Moss offers (right player, right place, right time). Pro-rate his stats and he's got 3 top 20 finishes in the past 5 years. It's possible that Jeremy Maclin never sees the top 20 for his entire career. Santana Moss is already the #1 target in what I'm predicting will be a quality offense headed by a quality QB. Jeremy Maclin might never be more than the #3, and Kevin Kolb might not amount to anything. It's important to have guys like Jeremy Maclin, young WRs with upside that will hopefully pan out and provide you with quality production down the road... but it's just as important to have guys like Santana Moss, guys who can give you quality production TODAY.Going on about how low people value him right now isn't going to convince me that I'm wrong... it's going to convince me that the people who are valuing him so low are wrong.Edit: I guess what I'm saying is... what's so special about Jeremy Maclin, really? He's about as valuable as a mid-to-late 1st rookie pick, imo... and I'm always going on about how mid-to-late rookie picks are one of the most overrated commodities in fantasy football. I haven't actually executed a single mid-to-late rookie pick in my dynasty career. I earn one every year, of course, I've just never actually executed one because I'm too busy trading them away for players that will ensure that I continue earning those mid-to-late rookie picks going forward.

ctt8410 said:

To those more experienced in this format than I, at what point would you shift from dynasty rankings to re-draft rankings in a limited keeper league? For example, a 3-keeper league would be almost exclusively re-draft rankings with heavy emphasis on obtaining 3 studs. But what about 6 keepers? 8? 9? At what point do you think dynasty rankings become the guideline? Similarly, how would you weight the rankings in the gray area in between?

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Good question. I would say once you start getting into the five-to-six range you're starting to lean more heavily toward Dynasty ranks. Your nucleus' value has to be judged long-term rather than year-to-year. Once you're comfortable with your nucleus, then you can afford to judge the rest of your roster on a redraft basis.

Maclin is a favorite of mine. Very young, smart, 1st round pick, on a passing offense, had a very solid rookie year, and has had a very good off-season.

bonesman said:

Fear & Loathing said:

Also, I don't worry about "all of Harvin's problems" at all. His migraines don't affect my valuation of him any more than Terrell Davis' did in his prime. Of course, if Harvin misses actual game time once or twice this year (instead of a meaningless training camp), that could change. But as of right now, it's not something I personally am concerned with.

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Well, he already missed 1 game last year... so there's president for him missing time other than meaningless camp and practice reps. It's understandable if you have to see it occur again to consider it a pattern... but from what little I know of chronic migraines, it worries me enough to consider only projecting him to play 15 again.

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We just don't know enough about it to have any kind of predictive value. That's my problem with it. I wouldn't dock a player in my rankings if I thought he would play 15 games. Do we knock Colts players in Dynasty because they only play 15 games every year?

SSOG said:

thriftyrocker said:

SSOG said:

thriftyrocker said:

I understand buying into the Santanamania in redraft leagues, but to rank him over Maclin, Wallace, Britt, Bowe, and Thomas in dynasty rankings is lunacy. Would you accept a straight up trade of Maclin for Moss? Would you trade a 2010 mid 1st for Moss? I can't think of any people who would. His trade value is closer to the Laurent, James Jones, Aromashodu grab bag tier than it is the pedigree WR tier with Maclin, Bowe, and Thomas.

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If he's above them in my rankings, I would trade them for him. If others underrate him and would let him go for less than that, so much the better.

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What's the upside for Santana this year? Top 15. If he achieves that, what is he next year? A 32 year old speed-based WR who has had one good year in a row. At that point what is his trade value? 2nd round pick.Consider what we learned about Chad Johnson. He was a top 15 WR last year. His trade value right now is bad to offensive. If anything Chad's talent level is higher than Santana. I would say many times higher. The TO signing is cutting into his value and upside even more.I've watched Santana a lot and he's not the same guy he was. He has been further limited by his QB and by the lack of #2 WR. That 2nd problem still exists unless Devin Thomas takes a step forward. The risk is if he does (which may be low probability due to Thomas' dedication level), he probably takes a step past too.What happens if the Skins trade for VJax tomorrow? You've got a worthless 50 catch 31 year old WR who you just traded Maclin or Demaryius for.

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Funny, I could say much the same thing about Reggie Wayne, Randy Moss, or Chad Ochocinco, three other guys who I have rated higher who haven't raised any eyebrows.

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No. 1) The upside of Wayne and Moss is the #1 WR in all of football. Not top 15. Top 5 WRs are hard to acquire and help you win games. WR2s are easy to acquire and help you not lose games.2) If Indy or NE signed VJax for 2010, Wayne and Randy would still be WR1s in redraft leagues. Santana is at best a WR2 without VJax in tow and a WR4 with VJax as a Skin.3) Brandon Tate is not better than a 50 year old Randy Moss. Austin Collie is not better than a 35 year old Reggie Wayne. Their position in the pecking order is not threatened by an enigma high draft pick who is taller and faster.Ocho is a tougher case because his value is somewhat dependent on Palmer who everyone assumes is toast and started off 2010 by throwing short all day in the first preseason game, which doesn't play to Chad's strengths.