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Dynasty Rankings (8 Viewers)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
- Start date
eaglesfan7
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Hey, SSOG. If the Vikings didn't give AP more than 16 carries a game, what would that say about him? Or would it say more about the staff? And before you blast me for comparing them, I'm not. I am simply saying that a player can't control how many carries they get, and that I don't believe the Cowboys have handled Felix properly.And Jahvid Best, who you give a healthy ranking has never had 100 yards rushing, yet has had more than 16 carries in a game. What is more important, the number of carries, or what you do with said carries?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Really? That is why he isn't talented?
eaglesfan7
Footballguy
FF is all about opportunity, not yards per carry.
eaglesfan7
Footballguy
I didn't say that's why I think Felix isn't talented. If you can't handle the load to carry the ball 20 times per game or more than there is obviously issue with the coaching staff trusting a player to be able to handle that workload. There is a reason why he hasn't carried the ball much in his career. It's because he can't stay on the field. Believe me, I have been a fan of Felix Jones ever since he entered the league. More so than my league mates for sure. He just has never produced for me. A couple big games here and there doesn't do it for me because I can't trust him enough to put him in the lineup. I'm not trying to be a ##### to you either CC.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
He has had more of a load over the last 20 games than he ever has, and as another poster pointed out, he hasn't missed a game in that time. That would suggest that he is handling the increased load just fine. I can understand those that don't want him on their fantasy team. I don't own him in a single dynasty league. I undertand if you want to question his FF value; I don't understand how people can question his talent level. Question his ability to stay healthy, fine. But he is talented and I don't know how that can be questioned.
eaglesfan7
Footballguy
Okay, I agree with you on this. I may have gone a little overboard on criticizing him and that's probably because he hasn't become elite like I expected him to over the past couple of seasons. He has started to get more and more carries so hopefully he steps up. Now is the time if he wants to take the job from Barber for good. I think the Cowboys may give Choice a chance to showcase his ability though.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I also think Felix is super-talented and that as soon as Dallas gets itself sorted out he'll produce elite numbers.
But I also agree that the fact that he hasn't broken one yet this year is a little worrisome given his off-season weight gain. I tend to think that the training staffs in the NFL aren't going to beef a guy up beyond the point he can be effective, but who knows. He may need to drop 6-8 pounds and play around 210-212.
Regardless... the guy is still averaging 4.1 per carry behind a putrid line. (All those swing passes are basically long handoffs (vs Vikings for example) and an admission that the Cowboys can't run block.)
It's way too soon to write him off.
But I also agree that the fact that he hasn't broken one yet this year is a little worrisome given his off-season weight gain. I tend to think that the training staffs in the NFL aren't going to beef a guy up beyond the point he can be effective, but who knows. He may need to drop 6-8 pounds and play around 210-212.
Regardless... the guy is still averaging 4.1 per carry behind a putrid line. (All those swing passes are basically long handoffs (vs Vikings for example) and an admission that the Cowboys can't run block.)
It's way too soon to write him off.
What evidence is there that Davis is actually talented, rather than just supposedly talented? And who ever referred to Craig Davis as "ultra-talented?" I'm not sure he's one the 75 most talented receivers in the league, much less "ultra-talented." I think the philosophy of believing in talent above all else will survive Craig Davis's demise just fine.eaglesfan7 said:
Thing is, opportunity isn't randomly assigned; it goes to those who have the best chance of producing with it, i.e. yards per carry.eaglesfan7 said:
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
He was a reach in the first round when he was drafted by AJ "reach" Smith. Cant stay healthy and doesnt do anything with his opportunities. Cut him in dynasty dont even bother hoggin an IR spoteaglesfan7 said:
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I didn't miss your point about Eli and not sure why you would even say that. Take the statement for what it is - two weeks ago we discussed Eli v. McNabb from a dynasty perspective. You argued that McNabb was a better dynasty QB, I took the opposite side, now you seem to be in agreement (based on their ranking). It didn't matter if Eli wnet up (which he did from 20 to 16) or if McNabb went down (which he did by quite a bit). All I was saying, was ranking McNabb head of Eli in a dynasty ranking didn't make much sense to me. McNabb is in decline - it's fairly obvious to me at least. I still think you rank Eli too low, but I do understand your philopshy for doing so - I just don't agree with it fundamentally or from a player evaluation perspective. I think there's something to be said for his consistency and security and I still think Eli has upside and room for growth, if you don't that's you perogative of course.As far as Orton. I agree to some extent. I've actually liked Orton more than most in the past - even going back to his Chicago days - but I do think his numbers are somewht inflated due to his current situation. McDaniels runs a very pass happy offense and while the lack of a running game can surely hurt a QB (by taking away that threat), here I think it helps add to his total production based solely on sheer volume - the Broncos pass a lot. I don't think the ranking is egrecious though, as I would feel safe having him as my starting QB in a dynasty - but I would feel safer with a solid backup if he was, as well.SSOG said:Re Eli Manning: I think you've missed the point entirely on Eli Manning. Eli Manning is still ranked exactly where he's always been. He's gone from 17th to 15th to 17th to 19th to 20th to 17th to 16th. It's not that my opinion of Eli Manning has improved- it's pretty much exactly the same as it's been since 2007. Your phrasing of that sentence implies that Eli Manning somehow passed Donovan McNabb on the way up, when the reality is that Donovan McNabb passed Eli Manning on the way down.Mike Shanahan runs a complicated offense. It typically takes players a couple of years to get it, which is why when I see Donovan McNabb struggle, I chalk it up to growing pains. I think he's performed very acceptably so far this season, given his system and his offensive supporting cast. Obviously getting benched for Rex Grossman is a very bad thing, but even that's not exactly a nail in the coffin or anything. It's just that my previous ranking was based on the opinion that he'd sign a long-term deal in Washington and get a good 4 years or more with Shanahan. As of now, that possibility is looking less and less likely.Sanchez's "second year improvement" is a total mirage created by the fact that his INTs were down... and given the sample sizes involved, the decrease in INTs was more likely a statistical fluke than meaningful trend. His comp% is down, his YPA is down, and his YPC are down. Moreover, he's still looking a bit lost out there. He might be a bit low, but I'm quickly cooling on Sanchez. As for Stafford... he actually rose two spots in the last update. He's right where I want him, given I wasn't high on him coming into the league and he still hasn't shown much of anything.Vick played so well that Andy Reid let him keep his job even though Kolb, the "QB of the future", was playing well. That's a huge positive indicator for me. And with Orton, look beyond the fact that he plays in a friendly system for a moment. You've got a 27 year old QB whose INT% since his rookie season has gone 3.5, 2.5, 2.6, 2.2, 1.6. His YPA since his rookie season has gone 5.1, 6.0, 6.4, 7.0, 7.9. His ypg has gone 125, 159, 198, 238, 314. His QB rating has gone 60, 74, 80, 87, 93. He's currently the #2 fantasy QB despite playing with far and away the worst running game in the league, a banged up offensive line, and a receiving corps that before the season was considered likely the worst in the entire league. He's 5th in ANYA despite playing in pretty much the worst situation imaginable for putting up good efficiency metrics. And this isn't the first time he's been playing well, either- he was QB7 through the first 7 weeks of 2008 before he got hurt, missed time, and clearly wasn't the same guy after his return. And that was in a completely different offensive system and once again it was paired with the worst receiving corps in the entire NFL. And, to repeat the most relevant point one last time... Kyle Orton is 27 years old. Why is it so hard to believe that Kyle Orton is still improving at 27 years old? I've made as many Orton jokes as anyone, but at this point, I'm totally convinced. Kyle Orton is a good QB. He's this year's Matt Schaub, except while everyone was freaking out over Matt Schaub last year, this year Kyle Orton gets greeted with a collective yawn... despite putting up better stats without the assistance of Andre Johnson.Dr. Octopus said:So Eli Manning is a better dynasty QB than McNabb now. Glad to see that change that was rather obvious a few weeks back.Also great job on the website - it's extremely well done both asthetically and "intellectually". No one is ever going to agree about everything - but it creates a great jumping off point for discussion and a great reference to start out with.ETA: Things that jump out at me in the QB rankings are Orton and Vick being way too high and Sanchez and Stafford being way too low. Sanchez was putting together quite a nice season for a second year player and while his final stats look bad this week he actually played decently. He had a few bad drops and both interceptions came from the defensive back ripping the ball away from the WR after they "caught" it. I like Orton, but think he's slowing down quite a bit and McDaniels could be on the outs soon and his system is certainly a help to Orton's production. There's no need to rehash the Vick discussion from pages back.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
In fairness the extra weight/muscle he added this offseason has seemed to slow him down a little. He seems less explosive this season than he did the past two. Maybe it's just been in the games I've seen - as I haven't watched every game like you have - but I've soured on him a little and he was a guy that I really liked heading into this season. I do blame the Cowboys inability to use him correctly and the o-line for some of his struggles as well though. I also have to say that I do find the "can't stay healthy" argument to be one of the laziest and short sighted arguments out there though - for any player, not just Felix.Concept Coop said:No break away speed...
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Fellas, it's time to sell Ray Rice. Based on the rankings I see, his name value has kept him afloat to this point. That can't continue forever. I don't think he is a top 5 fantasy back or a top 5 NFL running back; thus, I don't expect many, if any top 5 finishes in his near future. Baltimore no longer relies on him getting a ridiculous amount of receptions to move the ball. Maybe the rest of the NFL has adjusted, but it just isn't working, and he just isn't special. He is not getting goal line carries, and I don't know if or when that changes. I think this is your best, last chance to sell high. This is what I consider selling high:
I would offer Rice + 1st round + for:
ADP, CJ
I would offer Rice + a 1st round pick for:
MDJ
Andre Johnson
Calvin Johnson
I would offer Rice straight up for:
Jamaal Charles
LeSean McCoy
Frank Gore
Rashard Mendenhall
Hakeem Nicks
Larry Fitzgerald
Roddy White
Miles Austin
I know many will disagree but: "All great truths start as blasphemy." My great truth is that Ray Rice is not a top 5 dynasty back, and barely makes the top 10.
Post of mine from May of this year, before Rice started to struggle:
"Ray Rice is a top 5 producing RB, but not a top 5 talent in my book. Top 15, maybe. I can't predict Ingram's situation, but based on what I have seen (I am no scout by any means) talent wise, he is easily head and shoulders above Ray Rice."
I would offer Rice + 1st round + for:
ADP, CJ
I would offer Rice + a 1st round pick for:
MDJ
Andre Johnson
Calvin Johnson
I would offer Rice straight up for:
Jamaal Charles
LeSean McCoy
Frank Gore
Rashard Mendenhall
Hakeem Nicks
Larry Fitzgerald
Roddy White
Miles Austin
I know many will disagree but: "All great truths start as blasphemy." My great truth is that Ray Rice is not a top 5 dynasty back, and barely makes the top 10.
Post of mine from May of this year, before Rice started to struggle:
"Ray Rice is a top 5 producing RB, but not a top 5 talent in my book. Top 15, maybe. I can't predict Ingram's situation, but based on what I have seen (I am no scout by any means) talent wise, he is easily head and shoulders above Ray Rice."
I don't necessarily disagree with your premise, but only so far as believing Ray Rice is in the same tier or near the same tier as Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson (where many rank him). He is, however, absolutely a LOCK as a top 10 player and probably easily falls somehwere in the 4-8 range. I have watched every game he has played dating back to last season, and make no mistake, he is absolutely an elite talent. The goal line issue is a VERY short term concern that almost assuredly goes away after this season- the entire reason he isn't getting goal line work now is they are overpaying McGahee and need him to fill a role. As for his struggles this year, the vast majority of it has been situational, as he has looked quite great in essentially every game he has played.As for the bolded players, he is without a doubt more talanted than Rashard Mendenahll in every way (I own both and have watched them play extensively and can say this with supreme confidence), I definitely believe he is a more talented player than LaSean McCoy (although I haven't watched McCoy play extensively enough to say this with the same confidence), and I believe Hakeem Nicks has become a wildly overrated prospect (he has talent, but people are putting far too much stock in this recent touchdown streak for my tastes). I don't think he is even a top 10 dynasty receiver at the moment, let alone worth trading Rice for. As for trading him for the 1.01 pick (and ostensibly Ingram), I think that would be a wise trade as well, as everything I have seen from Ingram indicates he has the potential to be a player in the Adrian Peterson/Chris Johnson class, while Rice (and every single other player in the league, mind you) is not.
You certainly could be right, but I think this is an example of short term stats causing a false shift in long term outlook. Rice has performed far better than his stats suggest and could easily be putting up exceptional numbers if the team hadn't foolishly abandonded the run in several games (games Rice was performing exceptional in). Additionally, his future only looks better with the expectation that McGahee leaves following this season and the expected return of Gaither next season.
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RandleEl82
Footballguy
Good posts.
I haven't seen much of Ray Rice. So what makes him an elite talent and who would you compare him to?
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I don't think anybody has espoused the belief that it's "talent above all else." Certainly injury history and track record are very important.Davis can't stay healthy, and he's not that great when he does manage to play. I certainly wouldn't classify him as anywhere close to an elite talent.
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
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PranksterJD
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
1. When was your last set of rankings? And how exacty are your ranking ahead of the times? Behind, if anything. Since you haven't updated them during the season, this should be easy. Using your rankings, what did you predict ahead of time, what makes your rankings worth anything more than an ADP list? 2. I am not fighting anyone's battles. I am pointing out a silly comment, and making points of my own.
3. 3 games of his, 1 youtube clip, as I posted.
4. So McFadden is showing you the same things Peterson and CJ did? Huh. Okay.
5. Speed, fine. Falling forward? That is a cop out, if I have ever heard one. So he is fast and can catch and that makes him elite, so much so that you compare him to the 2 best backs in the game? Where does Darren Sproles rank...pretty damn close, eh?
6. I think you should re-do #5. I would if I were you. Fast, can catch, and falls forward (
) does not equal elite.7. Post some of your "film". Help us that don't scout understand. We would love to see what you look at.
8. You can't claim to have felt that Arian Foster was special, and then not rank him accordingly.
You "knew" he was special in August but ranked him as an average RB2 in your rankings? I don't think you are being honest about that part. No need to lie. We all missed the boat on Foster.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Good post.Now that I think about it, I wouldn't trade him for Hicks.
But I don't think an argument can be made for Rice doing better with more carries, when he is on pace to surpass his total of last season, and is only averaging 4 YPC. I think there is more to it than that, and I think last season was a bit of a fluke.
As for Mendenhal, I don't think he is more talented, but he gets goal line carries, which is why I like him more as a FF player.
As for my Ingram quote, I just didn't want it to seem like I am making this claim because it is easy to now. I felt last year that Rice was not a top 5 talent. The quote I found just happened to also be about Ingram, who - like you - I love as a prospect.
I think Ray Rice has been a bust in re-draft this year, but I'd bet his future is bright in Balto, and all he needs is more goalline touches and/or a mcgahee purge to be elite under any rubric.
ONE thing, though, that I bet helps all is dynasty is that the average footballguy gets bedazzled with random input from people that have an inherent PPR bias. THAT NOISE interferes with many signals, and most of us can gain leverage from that.
ONE thing, though, that I bet helps all is dynasty is that the average footballguy gets bedazzled with random input from people that have an inherent PPR bias. THAT NOISE interferes with many signals, and most of us can gain leverage from that.
GreatLakesMike
Footballguy
I believe you need a Rotoworld membership to view F & L's updated rankings.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
1. I update rankings every week.2. I called Arian Foster less than a month after he went undrafted in 2009. That call was published in the Beckett/Rotoworld magazine in June of 2009. I also called that situation throughout the summer on Twitter and in this very thread. 3. I don't care to re-do any of my answers. I think you should re-think the self-righteous attitude you've brought to this thread since you showed up assuming you were going to enlighten us on subjects we've been dissecting for years. 4. Where's your public track record?1. When was your last set of rankings? And how exacty are your ranking ahead of the times? Behind, if anything. Since you haven't updated them during the season, this should be easy. Using your rankings, what did you predict ahead of time, what makes your rankings worth anything more than an ADP list? 2. I am not fighting anyone's battles. I am pointing out a silly comment, and making points of my own.3. 3 games of his, 1 youtube clip, as I posted.4. So McFadden is showing you the same things Peterson and CJ did? Huh. Okay.5. Speed, fine. Falling forward? That is a cop out, if I have ever heard one. So he is fast and can catch and that makes him elite, so much so that you compare him to the 2 best backs in the game? Where does Darren Sproles rank...pretty damn close, eh?6. I think you should re-do #5. I would if I were you. Fast, can catch, and falls forward (You "knew" he was special in August but ranked him as an average RB2 in your rankings? I don't think you are being honest about that part. No need to lie. We all missed the boat on Foster.
1. I update rankings every week.2. I called Arian Foster less than a month after he went undrafted in 2009. That call was published in the Beckett/Rotoworld magazine in June of 2009. I also called that situation throughout the summer on Twitter and in this very thread. 3. I don't care to re-do any of my answers. I think you should re-think the self-righteous attitude you've brought to this thread since you showed up assuming you were going to enlighten us on subjects we've been dissecting for years. 4. Where's your public track record?1. When was your last set of rankings? And how exacty are your ranking ahead of the times? Behind, if anything. Since you haven't updated them during the season, this should be easy. Using your rankings, what did you predict ahead of time, what makes your rankings worth anything more than an ADP list? 2. I am not fighting anyone's battles. I am pointing out a silly comment, and making points of my own.3. 3 games of his, 1 youtube clip, as I posted.4. So McFadden is showing you the same things Peterson and CJ did? Huh. Okay.5. Speed, fine. Falling forward? That is a cop out, if I have ever heard one. So he is fast and can catch and that makes him elite, so much so that you compare him to the 2 best backs in the game? Where does Darren Sproles rank...pretty damn close, eh?6. I think you should re-do #5. I would if I were you. Fast, can catch, and falls forward () does not equal elite. 7. Post some of your "film". Help us that don't scout understand. We would love to see what you look at.8. You can't claim to have felt that Arian Foster was special, and then not rank him accordingly.
I am impressed you replied this mildly... 
Tau837
Footballguy
1. I update rankings every week.2. I called Arian Foster less than a month after he went undrafted in 2009. That call was published in the Beckett/Rotoworld magazine in June of 2009. I also called that situation throughout the summer on Twitter and in this very thread. 3. I don't care to re-do any of my answers. I think you should re-think the self-righteous attitude you've brought to this thread since you showed up assuming you were going to enlighten us on subjects we've been dissecting for years. 4. Where's your public track record?1. When was your last set of rankings? And how exacty are your ranking ahead of the times? Behind, if anything. Since you haven't updated them during the season, this should be easy. Using your rankings, what did you predict ahead of time, what makes your rankings worth anything more than an ADP list? 2. I am not fighting anyone's battles. I am pointing out a silly comment, and making points of my own.3. 3 games of his, 1 youtube clip, as I posted.4. So McFadden is showing you the same things Peterson and CJ did? Huh. Okay.5. Speed, fine. Falling forward? That is a cop out, if I have ever heard one. So he is fast and can catch and that makes him elite, so much so that you compare him to the 2 best backs in the game? Where does Darren Sproles rank...pretty damn close, eh?6. I think you should re-do #5. I would if I were you. Fast, can catch, and falls forward (
I too am impressed with your restraint in responding to this toolish post.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
To clarify, I don't care how often the FBG staff updates their rankings. I understand how time can be stretched during the season, and I don't even expect that they would update their rankings regularly. I'm not a subscriber, so there's certainly no animosity on my part. My point was that their McFadden rankings may not reflect this season's work as much as preseason expectations.
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PranksterJD
Footballguy
Good to know. Thanks. :(I knew he was writing for Rotoworld, but he'd made comments in the past that redraft articles were taking up his time. I didn't know the dynasty ranks were being updated behind the pay wall.
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Could you provide a link? I miss checking the Sons of the Tundra site to see your updates.
geoff8695
Footballguy
maxwelledison
Footballguy
Is Ronnie Brown a short-term (1-1.5 years) buy-low dynasty play? I realize he looks done but maybe he can rebound a touch and be a RB3...
Concept Coop
Footballguy
1. I must need to look elsewhere and will do so.2. I was talking about your #19 ranking in September, which is where most had him. 3. I agree with you. I get carried away, and debate in a manner that comes off the wrong way. I acually enjoy posters that do the same, as I enjoy going back and forth in that manner, which is why I enjoy Herm23 and SSOG, even though they might not enjoy my posts much.4. There isn't one, as I have only been on the site since April of this year.1. I update rankings every week.2. I called Arian Foster less than a month after he went undrafted in 2009. That call was published in the Beckett/Rotoworld magazine in June of 2009. I also called that situation throughout the summer on Twitter and in this very thread. 3. I don't care to re-do any of my answers. I think you should re-think the self-righteous attitude you've brought to this thread since you showed up assuming you were going to enlighten us on subjects we've been dissecting for years. 4. Where's your public track record?1. When was your last set of rankings? And how exacty are your ranking ahead of the times? Behind, if anything. Since you haven't updated them during the season, this should be easy. Using your rankings, what did you predict ahead of time, what makes your rankings worth anything more than an ADP list? 2. I am not fighting anyone's battles. I am pointing out a silly comment, and making points of my own.3. 3 games of his, 1 youtube clip, as I posted.4. So McFadden is showing you the same things Peterson and CJ did? Huh. Okay.5. Speed, fine. Falling forward? That is a cop out, if I have ever heard one. So he is fast and can catch and that makes him elite, so much so that you compare him to the 2 best backs in the game? Where does Darren Sproles rank...pretty damn close, eh?6. I think you should re-do #5. I would if I were you. Fast, can catch, and falls forward (
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I really like Ronnie as a buy low. Of course, you have to know what you are getting, with the injury concerns. He is not the guy he was at times last year, even. But I think Ricky retires soon, and I don't think the Phins go RB early this year in the draft. I think you can get him for peanuts, and he is a good risk to take. He is a guy I would be looking at, if I felt I could win next year.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
19 was a pretty strong ranking for him pre-W1. Ahead of Grant, Forte, Mccoy, Felix. Look at SSOG's ranking history if you need more proof. It turns out it was still too low, but it was still ahead of the curve. Please, if you want to pick on people for weak Foster rankings, there are better targets.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don't think it is a Willis McGahee issue. I think it is a Ray Rice/Goal line issue. I saw a metric last season - I can't remember what exactly it was measuring - and Willis was twice as effective inside the 20. The percentages were something like 40% to 20%. I saw it on TV, so maybe someone here will remember. I remember thinking that the 20% was really low and the 40% was only slightly above average.In other words, I think when Willis leaves, another short yardage back will closely follow in his role with the Ravens. Good point about the PPR. In re-draft, there was no reason for Rice to be top 4 (non-PPR) and he often was. Gore outscored him last year (per game), and was the safer bet to repeat those numbers.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I just think it is easy to say that you thought Foster was elite, or doing things that CJ2k and AP were doing, after the fact. That said, I have no issue with the #19 ranking. It was higher than I would have ranked him, by at least 4 or 5 spots. Kudos on that. But if you felt the guy was going to be elite, I question why one wouldn't rank him as elite.And if I wanted to pick on anyone re: Foster, I would start with myself. I am still not comfortable with the guy, and have only recently accepted the fact that he is top 10-15. I have no bones to pick there, as well as not room to talk in that regard.19 was a pretty strong ranking for him pre-W1. Ahead of Grant, Forte, Mccoy, Felix. Look at SSOG's ranking history if you need more proof. It turns out it was still too low, but it was still ahead of the curve. Please, if you want to pick on people for weak Foster rankings, there are better targets.
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thriftyrocker
Footballguy
There are gut rankings and there are rankings you publish on a high profile site like Rotoworld where you have to take into account speaking for all of dynasty football. Ranking Foster at 19 is enough to signal a "buy." Just like his strong rankings for Knox and Jacoby were signals to buy.I think if F&L had Foster on a team and got offered Shonne Greene (to pull a name from the higher tier) for him in August, he would have held Foster. Not that I know that personally, but just putting Foster at 19 signals a strong gut favoring towards Foster and his comments on Greene have never been good. He just has to account for the world's valuing of Greene somehow given most assumed he'd just step into TJ's numbers and keep things rolling.I just think it is easy to say that you thought Foster was elite, or doing things that CJ2k and AP were doing, after the fact. That said, I have no issue with the #19 ranking. It was higher than I would have ranked him, by at least 4 or 5 spots. Kudos on that. But if you felt the guy was going to be elite, I question why one wouldn't rank him as elite.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
That makes sense, and if you are correct then I was wrong, based on the fact that the ranking was not an accurate view of his personal ranking, but rather roto's.There are gut rankings and there are rankings you publish on a high profile site like Rotoworld where you have to take into account speaking for all of dynasty football. Ranking Foster at 19 is enough to signal a "buy." Just like his strong rankings for Knox and Jacoby were signals to buy.I think if F&L had Foster on a team and got offered Shonne Greene (to pull a name from the higher tier) for him in August, he would have held Foster. Not that I know that personally, but just putting Foster at 19 signals a strong gut favoring towards Foster and his comments on Greene have never been good. He just has to account for the world's valuing of Greene somehow given most assumed he'd just step into TJ's numbers and keep things rolling.I just think it is easy to say that you thought Foster was elite, or doing things that CJ2k and AP were doing, after the fact. That said, I have no issue with the #19 ranking. It was higher than I would have ranked him, by at least 4 or 5 spots. Kudos on that. But if you felt the guy was going to be elite, I question why one wouldn't rank him as elite.
EBF
Footballguy
Just a word of advice:
If you're a rebuilding team looking for cornerstone players to acquire for a reasonable price, go get Demaryius Thomas. I liked him a lot as a draft prospect and he hasn't disappointed at all in the NFL. One of the knocks on him coming out of Tech was that he was all straight line speed with poor agility, but that simply isn't the case. He's about 6'3" 230 and he moves as fluidly as a guy who's 5'10" 190. Case in point:
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlig...as-31-yard-gain
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlig...homas-KO-return
If he can stay healthy and motivated, he's a future top 10 WR. The only reason his stats are so low is because he's not getting targets. Use that to your advantage if the Thomas owner in your league isn't a true believer and make an offer while he's still available. He's younger/more talented than probably 10-15 of the receivers you can trade for him.
If you're a rebuilding team looking for cornerstone players to acquire for a reasonable price, go get Demaryius Thomas. I liked him a lot as a draft prospect and he hasn't disappointed at all in the NFL. One of the knocks on him coming out of Tech was that he was all straight line speed with poor agility, but that simply isn't the case. He's about 6'3" 230 and he moves as fluidly as a guy who's 5'10" 190. Case in point:
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlig...as-31-yard-gain
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlig...homas-KO-return
If he can stay healthy and motivated, he's a future top 10 WR. The only reason his stats are so low is because he's not getting targets. Use that to your advantage if the Thomas owner in your league isn't a true believer and make an offer while he's still available. He's younger/more talented than probably 10-15 of the receivers you can trade for him.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Thomas is a good but maybe obvious one.
To expand this a little are there any other rookie (or even 2nd/3rd year) WRs (or TEs) who people think will still emerge that might be undervalued?
G Tate has gotten some work but has been inconsistent.
LaFell and Damian Williams have come along slightly since the season started, but neither seems to have top 25 potential.
Roberts has some catches but now might be squashed again with other people healthy.
Stephen Williams kind of disappeared and now is equally squashed.
Gilyard has looked like a 4th round pick and not the college stud he was.
Decker is now pretty buried, but could be a better version of Gaffney if they decide not to bring him back.
Danario got his 5th knee operation.
Ajirotutu is the new hot add, and he's a facsimile of the type of WR that works in SD.
There's a lot of guys here I'd add if they were free, but no one I'd really target.
To expand this a little are there any other rookie (or even 2nd/3rd year) WRs (or TEs) who people think will still emerge that might be undervalued?
G Tate has gotten some work but has been inconsistent.
LaFell and Damian Williams have come along slightly since the season started, but neither seems to have top 25 potential.
Roberts has some catches but now might be squashed again with other people healthy.
Stephen Williams kind of disappeared and now is equally squashed.
Gilyard has looked like a 4th round pick and not the college stud he was.
Decker is now pretty buried, but could be a better version of Gaffney if they decide not to bring him back.
Danario got his 5th knee operation.
Ajirotutu is the new hot add, and he's a facsimile of the type of WR that works in SD.
There's a lot of guys here I'd add if they were free, but no one I'd really target.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I'll third that. I chased him down in all but one of my dynasty leagues and have followed him pretty closely as a result. He looks like the goods to me. If he'd been healthy in camp and Lloyd hadn't turned into Jerry Rice for ten weeks he'd be on a lot more radar screens. He's a great buy low in leagues where maybe he was selected late and his owner made the pick only because the other good targets were off the board.
EthnicFury
Footballguy
A ranking that high of a guy who's a gamble shows that you think he's an excellent gamble while accounting for the risk you're wrong (as opposed to ranking him in the tier of ADP/CJ3/guys who have PROVEN they're that talented and deserve to be ranked there. there's no reason to rank them as RB3 if you can get them in 90 percent of leagues as RB19. Even if you're confident you're right, there's just no need to buy them at that priceConcept Coop said:
Anybody have thoughts on Arrelious Benn? I really think owners are forgetting about him due to Williams' breakout; lots of quality WRs with his pedigree take a couple years before reaching fantasy startability. People were talking about him in the same breath as Dez Bryant a couple years ago (I thought those people were wrong, but I digress). Assuming I had a roster spot and could afford to wait on him, I'd easily take him over any of the guys you listed other than possibly Tate.
SSOG
Moderator
I finally got all of my week 8 rankings done and updated. I'm sorry it took so long, but instead of my usual method (take my individual rankings and just tweak individual players as needed), I did a full on from-scratch rankings update (i.e. destroy my original rankings and start back over from square 1). It produces a much better set of rankings... but it also takes about 10 times as much time/effort. Over the offseason, it took me more than 2 weeks to get everything all set up in the first place.Anyway, I felt it was important to do since we're pretty much at midseason. I'll go back to the traditional "tweak the existing rankings" method the rest of the way, so all of your rankings updates will be up and running early in the week again going forward, and then I'll probably do another "nuke and rebuild" around week 16 or 17.
Change log is available here. It's a big one this week, and I didn't even list every single change (I would have lost my freaking mind), instead limiting myself to the ones I felt were substantial enough to bear mentioning.
Sebowski
Footballguy
Thanks again for the work you put into the site. Love it. Few things:
1. Not sure if the mistake was to kist Antonio Bryant as a Bengal, or if it was that he is even listed at all.
2. Any thoughts on Ajirotutu?
3. When does Plaxico become a savvy stash? Never?
These 3 guys shouldn't be within 5 spots of each other. Britt/Maclin have better pedigrees, measurables, and production. Nothing wrong with projecting a guy but Golden Tate has the look of a great college player/NFL depth guy. I know it's early but I never understood why people were taking him over Mike Williams in rookie drafts.Kenny Britt in particular can show he can strap a passing attack on his back and carry it. Unless you think Tate turns into a young Stevonne SMith this ranking looks off.
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SSOG
Moderator
Wow, I don't mean to sound like a jerk or a tool because normally you bring the goods, but this is one of the worst arguments I've ever seen. If the Vikings never gave AP more than 16 carries, he wouldn't be ranked as high. If Chris Johnson got injured every 10th carry, he wouldn't be ranked as high. If Maurice Jones-Drew was splitting carries 50/50 with Deji Karim, he wouldn't be ranked as high. If my auntie had balls, she'd be my uncle. If Peyton Manning had had his arm amputated as a rookie, he wouldn't be a hall of famer. If my wife was 10 years old, I'd be in prison. Adrian Peterson *DOESN'T* get limited to 10 or fewer carries in 80% of his games, because he's ADRIAN FREAKING PETERSON. Chris Johnson does not get hurt every 10 carries because he's CHRIS FREAKING JOHNSON. Maurice Jones-Drew does not split carries 50/50 with Deji Karim because he's MAURICE FREAKING JONES-DREW. My wife is not 10 years old because that's seriously icky. And my aunt does have balls, but they're fake, and we call her "Uncle Sally", so the point stands.The Jahvid Best argument is also stupid. Let's set aside for a moment that when you say "never", you really mean "not in any of the whopping 7 games he's played so far (most of which he's been playing injured during)". Let's set aside for a moment that your "100 rushing yards" argument seems a little bit silly given that Best already has a game with 230 yards from scrimmage under his belt. Hell, let's even set aside the fact that Felix Jones only has a single 100 yard rushing game in his entire freaking career (which is a hell of a lot longer than 7 games at this point). Two if you count the playoffs. You ask a question- which is more important, the carries, or what you do with them. The answer is without hesitation "the carries". Matt Forte has never topped 4.0 ypc for a season, yet he's ranked 4th, 18th, and 9th in his 3 years in the league. Eddie George had a mind-numbing 3.6 career ypc... but he was a top-12 RB a whopping 6 times. Jerome Bettis only topped 4.0 ypc four times in 13 years, yet he finished as a starter-caliber fantasy back 9 times. Meanwhile, Jerious Norwood topped 6.0 ypc in each of his first two seasons, Mewelde Moore averaged 4.9 ypc in his first four years in Minnesota, Leon Washington averages 4.8 career ypc, Tatum Bell averages 4.9 career ypc, and Justin Forsett averages 5.0 career ypc. I don't care WHAT Felix does with his carries if he's only going to be another Mewelde Moore, Jerious Norwood, Leon Washington, Tatum Bell, or Justin Forsett.
That's the card you're going to play right now? Really? Felix Jones has averaged 9.7 carries per game over his last 20 games.
I'm not a fan of buying 28 year old RBs because I think they might be a decent RB3. That doesn't seem like a winning strategy in the long term.maxwelledison said:
This is GREAT posting. PPR studs are always overrated in non-PPR leagues. It's a simple fact of life. Ironically, the only leagues that seem to be immune to this phenomenon, in my experience, are the guppy leagues- because those guppies only look at points scored.Homer said:
This is exactly why we added the rankings archive- because people are really, really terrible at remembering how they felt in the past without letting all subsequent knowledge they've gained cloud their memory. I had him at 28th before the season, and if anything, I was high on him. I'm pretty sure every single one of the FBGs staff had him in the 30s.thriftyrocker said:
19 was a pretty strong ranking for him pre-W1. Ahead of Grant, Forte, Mccoy, Felix. Look at SSOG's ranking history if you need more proof. It turns out it was still too low, but it was still ahead of the curve. Please, if you want to pick on people for weak Foster rankings, there are better targets.
SSOG
Moderator
Yes, Gore outscored Rice last year in PPG. Yes, Gore was a much safer bet to repeat those numbers. No, Gore did not deserve to be ranked above Rice. Why? Because Ray Rice is 23 and Frank Gore is 27. That's like a 20 year age difference in RB years.Concept Coop said:
Yes, they're part of Rotoworld's season pass package.tonka said:
1. There are a couple of players whose teams need to be changed. Bryant, Jerome Harrison, and Mike Bell are the three I can think of off-hand. I'll get that fixed as soon as I'm not sick of the sight of our website.
As for having Bryant listed... He's 29, he has a track record of production, he has real skills. It's very likely that his career has been derailed and will never get back on track... but it's not a certainty. Hell, if BMW can come back, anyone can. I think Bryant is as deserving of his spot as, say, Devin Thomas, just to pick the guy rated immediately after him. Thomas was cut by a franchise that was started the player formerly known as Joey Galloway at WR. When you're outside of the top 70, pretty much everyone is garbage, the goal is just to roster the garbage that doesn't reek quite as badly.2. Honestly... no. He's way off my radar. I don't know much about him other than that he fits the physical mold that San Diego loves. I would love to hear some thoughts on him from anyone with anything to add.3. I wouldn't blame anyone who stashed him, but I personally am not looking to add a 33 year old WR who has been out of the league for two years and who doesn't even seem to be on any NFL team's radar. If teams started sniffing around him, I'd stash him. Until then, I'd rather burn that roster spot on some young guys with urgency.
Everyone gets ranked within 5 spots of someone. Someone has to be ranked 23rd, and someone has to be ranked 28th. Besides, it's not like they're "just" 5 spots apart- there's a whole tier separating them. There's a 12-point value drop.I've got a question for you- if you were me, how would you resolve that issue? Who is ahead of Britt/Maclin that you would move behind Britt/Maclin? Who is behind Golden Tate that you would move ahead of Golden Tate? How many spots apart do you think those players should be?As for how Tate looks... I can see how someone could watch him play and think he looks like an NFL depth guy. I've already said that when I watch him play, I see something different. I see someone who, if he can clean up his before-the-catch skills (and he's a rookie, so there's every reason to believe that he can), could make an impact in this league.
Daniel Shirley
Footballguy
Just wanted to toss out there a line to see what people are thinking of Brandon Marshall at MIA thus far through the season. After seeing his name pop up in one of Bloom's Thursday articles it got me thinking. I've always thought of him as a cornerstone (I don't take off for knuckleheadedness...), and I think he's looked good this year racking up targets, receptions, and yards. On the flip side, if this is going to define his role with the Phins (IE: lack of TDs), would now be the time to send him on his way while people still might perceive him as what he used to be? And if so, what would be a fair value to look for? Like a VJax level player or look at a Jeremy Maclin level. I've worked myself into a mental stalemate today over this...
