mlball77
Footballguy
From an NFL standpoint, I like Ryan quite a bit more... from a FF standpoint, I see them being very close in value. Just me.
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Dynasty Rankings (9 Viewers)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
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I was in the pool
Footballguy
I see Ryan becoming even more valuable as Turner ages/erodes in the next couple years (will be 29 years old next month) as they hand the keys to the offense even more. Flacco will stay in a run-based offense as long as the coaching staff and Ray Rice are in town.
greggorymac
Footballguy
What do you think the chances of Carolina retaining DeAngelo Williams in the off season? Do they keep him or turn the keys over to Stewart and Goodson?
squistion
Footballguy
I agree with that, I also think they are pretty close, their 2010 numbers were similar and Flacco had a higher QB ranking 93.6 to 91.0 for Ryan. Actual breakdown of stats:Ryan 357 completions, 3705 yards, 28 TDs, 9 INTsFlacco 306 completions, 3622 yards, 25 TDs, 10 INTsAnd their Fantasy numbers, were close too. Looking at the paid content on this site, Ryan finished at #10 QB with 300.4 points, while Flacco was at #12 with 285.5 points for the season. Yeah, I would have Ryan above Flacco in my rankings, but I doubt that I would target either one in a start up draft. Ryan appears to be a legitimate fantasy starter, while Flacco looks to be more of a backup, but I think it is too early in their careers to close the book on this discussion.
mlball77
Footballguy
Yeah, you are probably right that ATL could become noticeably less run-oriented once Turner fades. This makes sense to me for sure, but I don't take it as a given necessarily.
eaglesfan7
Footballguy
Matthew Stafford? You can't depend on him at all. If you do, you will regret it. Some qbs know how to slide and some do not. Some know when to throw the ball away and others hold on to it too long. Stafford fails in those categories and that's why he can't stay healthy.
I was in the pool
Footballguy
For as much as everyone says ATL is a run-first team, Ryan threw 571 passes in 2010, Turner ran it 334 times and Snelling 87, so that is 58% passes/42% runs. pretty normal in the NFL to me.
I was in the pool
Footballguy
Stafford was brought up in the context of what QB2 has the potential to be a top 10/top 5 guy. No one should be counting on Stafford in 2011. From what I heard in the preseason, most were drafting Stafford in 2010 to be part of a QBBC with a Flacco/Ryan, someone like that. I drafted Stafford in a league that I had Romo, so as a backup. I would draft Stafford as a backup in 2011 in a heartbeat. Tons of potential on a good offense, if more injuries, then cut him (or like I did in the league with Romo - trade him to another team looking to buy low - I got F.Jones in the trade).
az_prof
Footballguy
Rebuilding team with a new HC (likely) and two good young RBs, I find it hard to see a team shelling out 25 million to lock up a 28 year old RB.
eaglesfan7
Footballguy
Oh as a backup I totally agree. He can't be trusted as a starter. Those other qbs mentioned are not backups though. They are counted on as starters, I would think, in most leagues. Flacco and Ryan were drafted this past season as starters.
ItsOnlytheRiver
Footballguy
If someone offered me Fitz for Bradford I couldn't click accept fast enough. No way anyone is paying that price, but if they are I agree with you.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
The link above has 2 people paying prices like that for Freeman, and many value Bradford as high as Freeman. Serial rebuilders may be peeved enough at their guys to consider this close. YMMV
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eaglesfan7
Footballguy
I'm watching the Orange Bowl and I don't see what all the talk about Andrew Luck is about. He doesn't look very special to me. Some good plays and some bad but nothing that really stands out as extraordinary.
Tau837
Footballguy
It's the first time I've seen him play. Virginia Tech has a solid defense at #18 in the country in ppg allowed, and Luck has led Stanford to 33 points and counting. And he is 17/22 for 249 yards, 3 TDs, and 1 interception so far. I kind of agree that watching him he isn't jumping off the screen at me, but when looking at the numbers, especially in context of the situation, they are impressive.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
This is my third time (Oregon, USC) and I am impressed. To use a cliche, he seems to "make all the throws". But listening to the hype surrounding him is hard to stomach. I hate how many "once a decade" prospects there are - a lot more than once a decade.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
I think what I find most impressive about him is that he throws his receivers open. Forget the long TDs where the VaTech safeties were sleeping, he made a lot of excellent throws that kept the receiver moving in the correct direction down the field. You generally don't see that from QBs at the college level, IMO. Now, there are some systems, like Spurrier's, that have the QB throw to a spot on a 8 yard cross and it leads the WR down the field the same way. The differences that I saw last night was that Luck made a lot of those throws on tougher routes than a 8 yard cross, he also did it out of the offense on some scrambles and he did it in tighter windows than a lot of the system guys. Those Florida WRs were always wide open so throwing to the spot wasn't a big risk. But the Stanford receivers, minus a couple of the long TD breakdowns, weren't as open and he still had the accuracy, confidence and arm to throw them open. In fact, his INT was on a pass where he was throwing the receiver open but the CB made a great play on the ball and the receiver really didn't fight for it. I know you can see this from some NFL QBs but Luck is a RS Sophomore in college. It's pretty impressive.
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
Accuracy is extremely good. Nice size and mobility too. Off the chart intangibles too, IMO.
ItsOnlytheRiver
Footballguy
You guys aren't putting the stats in context. I like the Manning comparison because Manning had a terrible team around him his rookie year, much like Bradford. Comparing him to Ryan and Flacco is only a compliment, IMO, considering they both came into the league with a great line, veteran WR talent like Roddy White and Derrick Mason and great running games that their offense could lean on. Sure, going into 2011 I like Stafford more, who wouldn't? But the Rams aren't going to sit around and not give their franchise QB weapons. At least, they would be stupid to. So they grab a WR in the first this year, he probably won't ever be as good as Calvin, but good enough. Burleson and Morris? Meh whatever, it wouldn't be that difficult to find players with matching talents. Best hasn't proved much of anything, though I'm a big Best fan. I don't think the Rams are that depleted at TE. Michael Hoomanawanui was having a good season for a rookie TE, but struggled with injuries, and you still have Fendi Onobun waiting in the wings as a sort of wild card.
renesauz
IBL Representative
ONe of those TD throws was a thing of beauty, a ball threaded over a LB, between two safeties to his TE. I saw at least a dozen such throws last night, throws most college QB's would never have considered, let alone completed. Even his interception had more the look of a bad route than a bad read. A receiver taking a lazy soft cut when a more precise and sharper cut would have resulted in a perfectly timed completion.Luck sold me....definately has the goods.
valhallan
Footballguy
Not liking the Eli Manning vibe from Luck and his 'camp', who seem to be running his life. But aside from that he looks ready for the NFL to me. He was accurate and went through his reads, though I would like to have seen a few more zip throws. I'm sure he's had more impressive throws in other games though.
Passes the sniff test here.
Passes the sniff test here.
corpcow
Footballguy
Don't sleep on Avery either. If he can bounce back from the injury, he is a huge upgrade from the guys they have there. If he wasn't hurt this year, he probably would have been a top 20 guy with Bradford throwing him the ball. Add a top-tier 1st round WR talent this year and Avery as a WR2, and all of a sudden he has pretty good tools around him.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Part of dynasty value is permanence. I would have a hard time ranking Tebow over Bradford, Freeman, Flacco, and Eli. I think he belongs in that tier though. If you believe he is a long term starting QB you should probably have him in the top 10.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don't know where I would put him, yet. I need to sit down and draft some rankings.But I would take him over Bradford, Freeman, Manning and Flacco becuase I think he is worth the risk. Especially Manning and Flacco, low end QB1s can be found on a yearly basis. You can trade a a late 1st for a startable QB every year. So if I take Tebow over Manning and it doesn't work out, I can right that mistake without it setting me back years. Guys like Carson Palmer and Matt Cassel can be had for nothing and will offer enough points to keep your team from bottoming out without a guy like Manning or Flacco. On the other hand, the reward if Tebow were to do anything close to what he has over this 3 game stretch, for even 5 years, is greater than anything that tier of QBs can offer. I will have Tebow top 12, for certain. I will have to see how high up the list he goes with more time to think it through.
I was in the pool
Footballguy
An initial dynasty draft going into 2011 is going to be very interesting at QB. Lots of solid guys with top 10 potential that are outside the top 10. Plus you have stalwarts like Peyton and Brady who are top tier, but are getting into the mid-30s. Do you take a top name guy, or wait and draft two guys from Freeman/Stafford/Tebow/Bradford and hope one hits perennial top 5? I would be inclined to wait for 2-3 QBs in the 7-16 range in my rankings....
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
I would wait and grab my RB and WR early.
Spike
Footballguy
Interestingly, Austin is exactly what I got for Bradford and I'm now kicking myself for making the deal. I have Rodgers as my QB1 but nothing else. I liked it at the time but I think having 2 *solid* QBs in dynasty (3, if you can) is essential.
Spike
Footballguy
I was thinking the same about Luck as I only watched the first half of the Stanfor/VTech game.Sounds like I missed the good stuff.
eaglesfan7
Footballguy
He definitely looked better in the second half but nothing crazy. He made it look easy and I guess that says alot about his skill set. John Elway said he sees a great qb of the nfl future in Luck and he knows better than I do. I just wouldn't go crazy and draft him anytime before round 5 or 6 in 12 team leagues of startup dynasty drafts. You sacrifice the current season if you do that and I think going for it in year 1 is as important as going for it any other year.
paytonsdaman
Footballguy
Is Burress or Antonio Bryant worth a stash? They are FA's in my league as probably most other leagues.
Jeff Tefertiller
Footballguy
Burress is absolutely worth a stash in most leagues. He gets out of prison in June and will play in 2011 9assuming there is a season). We do not know where or how well, but he should play.
I've seen many of the bowl games this year and he has been by far the best QB I've seen. Amazingly accurate. I agree that he made everything look easy, especially the throws on the run. Where do people expect him to go in rookie drafts? Usually, QBs go in the latter half of the 1st (under normal scoring systems). I know it's early but with the top half of the 1st so deep, does anyone think he might jump into the top 5?
EBF
Footballguy
I don't think he will be a top 4 pick in many rookie drafts, excluding 2QB leagues and other formats that favor QB scoring. People don't take QBs high because they take years to develop, only the very best provide any real advantage in FF, and decent veteran starters are fairly easy to acquire. Sam Bradford didn't go higher than 1.06 in any of my standard leagues last year. I would expect about the same for Luck if he declares. Mid first in 12-14 team leagues.
As for the comments about Luck, much of what makes him great is difficult to discern from highlights and/or bits of games. People say that part of his problem is that he makes things look too easy. Most of the experts are unanimous in their praise though. He manages the offense very well, has a great mental grasp of the game, and excellent accuracy. I think he'll be a successful NFL QB. About the only thing he lacks is an A+ arm, but he can still put it on the money 50 yards downfield or hit the deep out.
As for the comments about Luck, much of what makes him great is difficult to discern from highlights and/or bits of games. People say that part of his problem is that he makes things look too easy. Most of the experts are unanimous in their praise though. He manages the offense very well, has a great mental grasp of the game, and excellent accuracy. I think he'll be a successful NFL QB. About the only thing he lacks is an A+ arm, but he can still put it on the money 50 yards downfield or hit the deep out.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Does anybody know of a VORP study conducted for dynasty purposes?
For example: QBX will provide a 10% advantage over baseline or replacement for a projected 6 years. QBY will provide a 20% advantage over baseline or replacement for a projected 3 years. Assuming that at the end of the projected careers, the QB is replaced with our baseline or replacement points, which QB will better improve your chance of winning during the duration of the longest projected career (6 years) or a set time period (5 years, 10 years?)
In a nutshell, looking to determine if there is a less subjective way to decide if 4 years of Peyton Manning (based on projections) is worth more than 10 years of Matt Ryan. Looking to have the values defined by projections of value over replacement, adjusted to take length of production into account, then compared to others of the position. Then, eventually, other positions as well.
Last example of what I am looking for:
If our baseline for QB production is 10 (just for numbers sake) which of the following careers will help you win more? (Once the seasons points change to 10, the player is no longer productive and has been replaced by our baseline points). The numbers represent value offered by each player, the "-" separating the years. The number farthest left would be 2011, the farthest right would be 2021.
X: 18-18-18-10-10-10-10-10-10-10
Y: 14-14-14-14-14-14-14-14-14-14
For example: QBX will provide a 10% advantage over baseline or replacement for a projected 6 years. QBY will provide a 20% advantage over baseline or replacement for a projected 3 years. Assuming that at the end of the projected careers, the QB is replaced with our baseline or replacement points, which QB will better improve your chance of winning during the duration of the longest projected career (6 years) or a set time period (5 years, 10 years?)
In a nutshell, looking to determine if there is a less subjective way to decide if 4 years of Peyton Manning (based on projections) is worth more than 10 years of Matt Ryan. Looking to have the values defined by projections of value over replacement, adjusted to take length of production into account, then compared to others of the position. Then, eventually, other positions as well.
Last example of what I am looking for:
If our baseline for QB production is 10 (just for numbers sake) which of the following careers will help you win more? (Once the seasons points change to 10, the player is no longer productive and has been replaced by our baseline points). The numbers represent value offered by each player, the "-" separating the years. The number farthest left would be 2011, the farthest right would be 2021.
X: 18-18-18-10-10-10-10-10-10-10
Y: 14-14-14-14-14-14-14-14-14-14
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culdeus
Footballguy
Just do something similar to a present value calculation in a finance 101 class.
I was in the pool
Footballguy
Who would you take for the rest of their career.....d. Jackson or mike wallace?
TeamSnooki
Footballguy
I'm still pretty new to dynasties and trying to figure out what draft picks are worth. I feel OK when it comes to making normal trades but as far as playing the draft game I'm clueless.
To get me started... What is 1.1 worth?
Obv it depends on the scoring, need, talent of draft class, etc but generally... is it worth a #1 RB? or more like a borderline #1/2 RB?
Are there more than 10-15 players that are worth 1.1?
To get me started... What is 1.1 worth?
Obv it depends on the scoring, need, talent of draft class, etc but generally... is it worth a #1 RB? or more like a borderline #1/2 RB?
Are there more than 10-15 players that are worth 1.1?
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
That is a good question. 2010 could easily be Wallace's career year and Jackson's worst, but they are similar players with similar outlooks. I like DeSean's talent and situation better but - and it's a big but - his injury history affects not just his value but is affecting his style of play. He played cautious this year, but the fact it's a contract year and he feels he's already earned his money might have contributed to that. I would have to rank DeSean ahead of him, but it's probably one of those situations where if you can get extra stuff for "downgrading" to Wallace you won't miss him.fdctrumpet said:
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Exactly. I think it is a toss up as far as how many points they will score, from here on out. I would value Jackson more, because I think his trade value is higher, as Thrifty said.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Go Deep is the only person I know to compare value of draft picks in his rankings. I would look at his rankings for a starting point.The 1.01 seems to be worth RB12-15 typically. Darren McFaddens and Adrian Petersons push the value up every few years. However, 1st round draft picks are not worth much to me, personally, before the draft order starts to materialize. The gap between a top 3 pick and the rest of the first round is usually huge. It is the difference between getting a Jahvid Best/Julio Jones or Tobi Gerhart/Golden Tate.
EBF
Footballguy
I actually think that people tend to overestimate the gap in value among first round rookie picks save for the occasional Reggie Bush/Adrian Peterson/Calvin Johnson who truly looks a cut above even the average first round prospect. After years of playing in dynasty leagues and experiencing mixed results in rookie drafts my opinion is that the value difference within tiers is usually exaggerated. Consider some recent classes:
2009 WR
1.07 - Darrius Heyward-Bey
1.10 - Michael Crabtree
1.19 - Jeremy Maclin
1.22 - Percy Harvin
1.29 - Hakeem Nicks
1.30 - Kenny Britt
Heyward-Bey was the first WR picked, but everyone chalked that up to Al Davis lunacy. In reality, Crabtree was the near consensus #1 WR from this class. Some people had other receivers ranked higher, but Crabtree was the first WR selected in all of my rookie drafts. After two seasons it looks as though the gap between Crabtree and the likes of Maclin/Harvin/Nicks/Britt is narrow if not nonexistent. Teams that snagged the likes of Maclin, Nicks, or Harvin with late first round rookie picks are probably very pleased whereas teams that got Crabtree with the 1.01 or 1.02 pick probably feel like they could've traded down a few spots and still picked up a similar player.
2008 RB
1.04 - Darren McFadden
1.13 - Jonathan Stewart
1.22 - Felix Jones
1.23 - Rashard Mendenhall
1.24 - Chris Johnson
McFadden was thought to be the clear #1 pick from this group. There were people who liked Stewart and/or Mendenhall more, but McFadden went first in all of my rookie drafts this year. A few seasons into their careers, there does not appear to be a massive gulf in quality among these players. I would argue that Johnson and Mendenhall have had the best careers thus far. All of these guys have looked pretty good at times. Felix Jones has probably been the worst of the bunch and he still looks like a quality NFL player.
You can argue that these years aren't representative of the average draft class, but this sort of phenomenon is not uncommon at the skill positions. In general, I think the talent gap between a RB or WR who's picked in the top 10 or the mid-late first round is not necessarily huge. This is something to keep in mind when you hear things like "AJ Green is clearly the 1.01 rookie pick." Green might well be a fine prospect, but don't sleep on the likes of Justin Blackmon and Julio Jones just because they might be drafted 5-15 spots lower. I'd say that they're all within the same tier and that within tiers, the difference in talent level tend to be minimal.
2009 WR
1.07 - Darrius Heyward-Bey
1.10 - Michael Crabtree
1.19 - Jeremy Maclin
1.22 - Percy Harvin
1.29 - Hakeem Nicks
1.30 - Kenny Britt
Heyward-Bey was the first WR picked, but everyone chalked that up to Al Davis lunacy. In reality, Crabtree was the near consensus #1 WR from this class. Some people had other receivers ranked higher, but Crabtree was the first WR selected in all of my rookie drafts. After two seasons it looks as though the gap between Crabtree and the likes of Maclin/Harvin/Nicks/Britt is narrow if not nonexistent. Teams that snagged the likes of Maclin, Nicks, or Harvin with late first round rookie picks are probably very pleased whereas teams that got Crabtree with the 1.01 or 1.02 pick probably feel like they could've traded down a few spots and still picked up a similar player.
2008 RB
1.04 - Darren McFadden
1.13 - Jonathan Stewart
1.22 - Felix Jones
1.23 - Rashard Mendenhall
1.24 - Chris Johnson
McFadden was thought to be the clear #1 pick from this group. There were people who liked Stewart and/or Mendenhall more, but McFadden went first in all of my rookie drafts this year. A few seasons into their careers, there does not appear to be a massive gulf in quality among these players. I would argue that Johnson and Mendenhall have had the best careers thus far. All of these guys have looked pretty good at times. Felix Jones has probably been the worst of the bunch and he still looks like a quality NFL player.
You can argue that these years aren't representative of the average draft class, but this sort of phenomenon is not uncommon at the skill positions. In general, I think the talent gap between a RB or WR who's picked in the top 10 or the mid-late first round is not necessarily huge. This is something to keep in mind when you hear things like "AJ Green is clearly the 1.01 rookie pick." Green might well be a fine prospect, but don't sleep on the likes of Justin Blackmon and Julio Jones just because they might be drafted 5-15 spots lower. I'd say that they're all within the same tier and that within tiers, the difference in talent level tend to be minimal.
I was in the pool
Footballguy
One angle I will bring up is that I saw Wallace add more components to his game in 2010. When I compare Wallace of 2009 to D.Jackson, I see the same player pretty much. When I look at the Wallace that improved throughout 2010, I see a more well-rounded receiver that looks more complete moving forward. I would take Wallace personally because Big Ben is the perfect QB for his game. Vick may not be the long-term answer in Philly and (haven't looked up the stats or anything, but there isn't a big set of stats yet) would think Kolb would lower Jackson's value if/when that transition happens.
I was in the pool
Footballguy
I think Blackmon in the right situation will be one of the best of the class (can you imagine him landing in Atlanta? I read that the other day and think he would benefit a lot from a landing spot like that). Green is the #1 guy to me - STL would be nice - but Julio Jones is going to struggle out of the gate in my opinion. Over time he may catch up, but I see a much longer time line for him to get productive as a WR3 or WR4 in fantasy.
Accordng to my dynasty scores/trade calc, it would take a WR along the lines of Austin Collie, Malcolm Floyd, a QB like Kyle Orton or Mark Sanchez, or a RB like Reggie Bush or Ronnie Brown for the difference between Desean and Wallace. Would anyone take any of those players to move from Desean to Wallace(non-ppr)?
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
I was in the pool
Footballguy
I am very high on Collie, so I would feel like I robbed a bank if a DJax for Wallace/Collie deal happened for me.
EBF
Footballguy
I'd at least consider it. What I might do instead is trade down from the 1.02 to the 1.04 and try to pick up an extra 2nd rounder. In any given year there might be 5-10 RB/WR picked in the first round of the NFL draft. I feel like people exaggerate the difference in the talent level between the players at the top and bottom of that group (with rare exceptions for obvious studs like Calvin Johnson and obvious flops like Buster Davis).
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I was in the pool
Footballguy
I agree. NFL exec's have very different views on skill position players and some teams rarely take a certain position in round 1 even. Any particular player could fall just because the next cluster of teams doesn't have him high even on their board, or they are looking at different positions/need. Just like the whole DHB/Crabtree situation, you need to evaluate the player and the situation more than what player was picked higher in the draft.
I would trade DJax straight up for Wallace. I think they're both terrific players but I prefer Wallace.
