BeTheMatch
Footballguy
Game's changing though. More and more emphasis being placed on speed and these smaller guys that can do things in space. I think his upside is a little higher than most.
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Dynasty Rankings (9 Viewers)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
FWIW, Footballguy's handy Data Dominator shows that DeSean Jackson actually fell to No. 38 in fantasy points in the second-half of the season after Kevin Curtis returned from injury. Coming in ahead of Jackson in the 2nd half: Mark Clayton, Justin Gage, Kevin Walter, Michael Jenkins, Deion Branch, and Devin Hester. Not saying Jackson isn't a promising young WR, but I just thought that was interesting.
That may have been the cause, but isn't it equally as likely that he just hit the old rookie wall. I'm still kind of expecting Philly to make some kind of deal on draft day for a WR, so maybe we'll have an entirely different idea of Desean then. Also, its great to see the blog updated, I, for one, hope it continues, it was pretty much my introduction to dynasty league value and continues to be an excellent resource for me, especially when I'm unsure of how to value someone(CJ3 last year being a great example)
I had 2 questions about the recent updates, both at QB:
1. The Matt Ryan jump...I'm not sure adding Gonzo is enough to move up to tier 1, I mean even with Gonzo, are his weapons any better than Philip Rivers or Aaron Rodgers have? Ryan is only 1 year younger than Rodgers and I don't expect Atlanta to pass anywhere near as often as Green Bay.
2. The tier 2 to tier 3 drop off...After Rivers, it seems to me like Romo to McNabb are basically the same value wise. I don't know if I think Romo, Cutler etc. should be lower or Warner and McNabb should be higher, but I'm not sure I see enough of a difference for them to be considered different tiers. I realize the age difference, but in the short term, I see no reason why Warner and McNabb won't out perform everyone in tier 2 except Rivers and Rodgers.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Good to hear from you, travdogg. Thanks for the kind words on the blog.1. Matt Ryan: The only reason I didn't already have him in the top tier was because of Rivers' & Rodgers' edge (possibly significant) on 2009 value. I think Ryan is a special QB, whereas Rivers and Rodgers are merely very good franchise QBs. I also think Ryan can easily be a Top-8 QB in 2009 now that he has Gonzalez and a year of experience.
2. I've dropped Romo considerably b/c of the T.O. loss, and I figured I'd hear that I've dropped him too far considering his dramatic edge over guys like McNabb in fantasy production over the next two seasons. I love Warner, and I've been higher on him than anybody else has been over the past year, but I just think the floors for him & McNabb are too low to place them over guys like Romo & Cutler. Warner and McNabb are also much greater injury risks than the younger guys. Bottom line: I'm giving the younger guys a pretty big edge in "stability," which is important for long-term value.
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I did a quick-hitting Top-12 rookie list for Rotoworld's Pancake Blocks after last night's action.
Initial reaction on the Top-12 Dynasty league rookie picks following the first two rounds of the NFL Draft:
1. Knowshon Moreno, Broncos - The draft's best all-around running back. Evan Silva and I debated the committee effect in Denver, and I just don't believe Josh McDaniels is married to that approach. He didn't use the No. 12 pick to have a dynamite player sit behind Correll Buckhalter, J.J. Arrington and LaMont Jordan.
2. Chris Wells, Cardinals - This was a crazy good fit for both player and team. Wells is the most explosive back in the draft and will step in as the workhorse in a scary offense starting in Week One.
3. Michael Crabtree, 49ers - Just because he fell in the draft, that doesn't mean he falls in fantasy leagues. Crabtree should step in as an immediate starter and easily the best playmaker of Shaun Hill's weapons.
4. Percy Harvin, Vikings - Sure to be the most controversial of these rankings, I love Harvin's fit with the Vikings. Harvin's explosiveness and first-step quickness will make him an outstanding playmaker on astroturf, and the Vikes "pick-your-poison" offense just got a whole lot tougher to stop.
5. Donald Brown, Colts - I've never been a Joseph Addai fan, but it's true that Brown won't just push him to the sidelines. The Colts offense is great, but I don't like waiting 2+ years on a running back if I'm not sure he's going to be special.
6. LeSean McCoy, Eagles - He's too similar to Brian Westbrook to carve out a significant role right off the bat, and I'm not wild about his shake and bake style making the easy transition to the NFL.
7. Hakeem Nicks, Giants - Silva's second-ranked wide receiver is also high on my list. Eli's hit-and-miss gun will be throwing to him, but the opportunity will be there right off the bat.
8. Matthew Stafford, Lions - Is he accurate enough? We'll find out, but you have to like a strong-armed quarterback's ability to find Calvin Johnson.
9. Mark Sanchez, Jets - The good news is that he was hottest name in the draft. The bad news is that the Jets didn't have a chance to find a starter opposite Jerricho Cotchery once they made the deal to get their franchise quarterback.
10. Kenny Britt, Titans - Silva believes he's a threat to Justin Gage's starting job, but I think it will end up Gage and Britt in the starting lineup with Nate Washington assuming his familiar deep-threat No. 3 role. Either way, Britt has the best chance of ending up as the go-to guy.
11. Jeremy Maclin, Eagles - Where does he fit in this offense? And is his game too similar to DeSean Jackson's? I love what the Eagles have done on offense this season, but how long until Maclin becomes a fantasy starter?
12. Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders - The biggest reach in the first round lands in a dysfunctional offense with a scatter-shot quarterback. The opportunity is there, but I'm skeptical of the Raiders passing game.
Initial reaction on the Top-12 Dynasty league rookie picks following the first two rounds of the NFL Draft:
1. Knowshon Moreno, Broncos - The draft's best all-around running back. Evan Silva and I debated the committee effect in Denver, and I just don't believe Josh McDaniels is married to that approach. He didn't use the No. 12 pick to have a dynamite player sit behind Correll Buckhalter, J.J. Arrington and LaMont Jordan.
2. Chris Wells, Cardinals - This was a crazy good fit for both player and team. Wells is the most explosive back in the draft and will step in as the workhorse in a scary offense starting in Week One.
3. Michael Crabtree, 49ers - Just because he fell in the draft, that doesn't mean he falls in fantasy leagues. Crabtree should step in as an immediate starter and easily the best playmaker of Shaun Hill's weapons.
4. Percy Harvin, Vikings - Sure to be the most controversial of these rankings, I love Harvin's fit with the Vikings. Harvin's explosiveness and first-step quickness will make him an outstanding playmaker on astroturf, and the Vikes "pick-your-poison" offense just got a whole lot tougher to stop.
5. Donald Brown, Colts - I've never been a Joseph Addai fan, but it's true that Brown won't just push him to the sidelines. The Colts offense is great, but I don't like waiting 2+ years on a running back if I'm not sure he's going to be special.
6. LeSean McCoy, Eagles - He's too similar to Brian Westbrook to carve out a significant role right off the bat, and I'm not wild about his shake and bake style making the easy transition to the NFL.
7. Hakeem Nicks, Giants - Silva's second-ranked wide receiver is also high on my list. Eli's hit-and-miss gun will be throwing to him, but the opportunity will be there right off the bat.
8. Matthew Stafford, Lions - Is he accurate enough? We'll find out, but you have to like a strong-armed quarterback's ability to find Calvin Johnson.
9. Mark Sanchez, Jets - The good news is that he was hottest name in the draft. The bad news is that the Jets didn't have a chance to find a starter opposite Jerricho Cotchery once they made the deal to get their franchise quarterback.
10. Kenny Britt, Titans - Silva believes he's a threat to Justin Gage's starting job, but I think it will end up Gage and Britt in the starting lineup with Nate Washington assuming his familiar deep-threat No. 3 role. Either way, Britt has the best chance of ending up as the go-to guy.
11. Jeremy Maclin, Eagles - Where does he fit in this offense? And is his game too similar to DeSean Jackson's? I love what the Eagles have done on offense this season, but how long until Maclin becomes a fantasy starter?
12. Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders - The biggest reach in the first round lands in a dysfunctional offense with a scatter-shot quarterback. The opportunity is there, but I'm skeptical of the Raiders passing game.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I'd be tempted to throw Shonn Green in at No. 6 ahead of McCoy. The Jets are a good fit for him, and Thomas Jones doesn't have a long shelf-life at age 31.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I like his chances to contribute sooner than McCoy's.You will likely have to wait on both. McCoy has higher upside while your waiting.. so perhaps he belongs at 7 on your list.If you think McCoy's chances are slim to get a feature RB once Westbrook is done then Greene would go ahead of him.Green has Washington to contend with once Jones is done. McCoy would be competing with Booker. I like McCoy's chances better there.Jones is a year older than Westbrook. Favors Greene short term. Jones could possibly fall off as soon as this season. Especially without Favre worrying defenses.
thecardiackid
Footballguy
Wes Welker down? PPR wise (@ 1 for WR) - he's at least in the conversation. 100+ balls, w/ solid yds, and if he could find a way to sniff 10 TDs he's there. And though he may be 'stockier' (is that a word?) - he's damn close to DJ size wise.
EBF
Footballguy
This is the best place McCoy could've possibly landed, but I'm still slightly reluctant to assume that he'll get that Westbrook role outright. They might need to bring in a Buckhalter type to team up with him since power is his biggest question mark. I think Greene starts for NYJ in 2010 with Washington playing his usual change of pace role.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
EBF
Footballguy
I'm leaning towards Westbrook light, but there's enough upside here to justify a top 5-10 pick in PPR.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I do not. Admittedly, I don't watch a lot of college football. I've seen plenty of clips, though, and McCoy doesn't stand out at all to me. He seems like a shake and bake runner who go sideways more often than he goes forward, and I don't think that plays well in the NFL. Watch clips of him vs. clips of Moreno, and Knowshon jumps at you.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
We are both in the same boat as far as watching college ball (I probably watch less than you).I have to agree that McCoy did not really stand out to me when I was watching clips of him however. It has been mentioned before that McCoy may still be developing as a runner. That he can out juke himself sometimes. Pro defenders are much faster and bigger than what McCoy faced in college. Will all those juke moves and sideways movement be effective for him at the next level?From what little I have seen I would say no to maybe.But the Eagles drafted him in the 2nd round. I can say with full confidence that they are better at assesing talent and what will work in their system than me. The Eagles took McCoy with pick 53. As far as the sideways style of play. This could be a weakness or a strength for McCoy. I know coaches do not like their RB to go sideways when there is a hole. But Westbrook has been making hay for the Eagles because of his ability to get to the outside and making people miss with those quick outside moves..I had doubts about Westbrook too. Mainly because of his size more than anything else. He fit the eagles offense so well he became the offense. IIRC Westbrook was only a 3rd round pick. This is the highest investment the Eagles have made in a RB since Charlie Garner. So easily the highest pick used on a RB in the Reid era.
az_prof
Footballguy
This is my reaction exactly.
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Nah. I wouldn't worry about him that much, but I've never been a huge handcuff proponent. Would Hightower have a ton of value if Beanie went down? He was atrocious in his 7-game starting audition last year ... in six of those games he couldn't even break 35 yards.
EthnicFury
Footballguy
was ecstatic to move hightower and julius jones for steve smith in a ppr dyno last season.
that said, reports are (IIRC) that he's lost a lot of weight and looks more explosive?
that said, reports are (IIRC) that he's lost a lot of weight and looks more explosive?
TenTimes
Backhoe Operator
Geez. Was it the wells owner?And did he already have fitz, calvin, and AJ at receiver and nothing at RB?
EthnicFury
Footballguy
as it was last season the wells owner didnt exist.he was trying to rebuild, but his other WR was TOluckly my team in that league still managed to suck (despite having a WR corps of Fitz, Smitty and Roddy White) thanks to the insane quarterbacking prowess of one mr. Carson Palmer
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KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Jackson Looked good in the Playoffs...
with BAL not drafting a WR, do we bump Clayton up? he may not be a true #1, but he does have some YAC ability.
TenTimes
Backhoe Operator
Ahh, read it as last weekend for some reason? Long night.
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Blackjacks
Footballguy
I'll be interested to see the updated list of players with the rookies included.
Any idea when we should start looking for this?
Any idea when we should start looking for this?
stevegamer
Footballguy
You're correct that Westbrook was a 3rd round pick, and even though he dominated at his level there were a lot of people who didn't think he'd translate well due to injuries & competition. (As an aside, I hope the guy who liked to debate his dominance no longer around here - I have no idea how setting NCAA records for combined yardage means you're not dominant)I don't think there was anyone who didn't think he could be an impact returner, however.
Here's an article I found on trying to evaluate Westbrook, ironically by Matt Waldman:
http://www.fftoday.com/articles/waldman/gc_westbrook.htm
Westbrook's issues were injuries, pedigree, and size coming out.
There's no question Moreno > McCoy as a RB.
However, I think McCoy translates VERY well to this offense. There are a couple things to remember:
1. His age - he's 20. So he will fill out some naturally, and is still developing his game.
2. The Eagles offense runs a ton of screens, and creates mismatches with a RB split out and moving all over the place. It is designed to get a back the ball in space so he can use his jukes & vision to break big plays - even when moving all over the place.
3. The Eagles solidly upgraded their OL for the next 4-5 years with their offseason moves.
This is the best place for McCoy to land, and I think he merits consideration as the #2 RB selected. You may not want to take him there, but it's not unreasonable if he's your guy.
thecardiackid
Footballguy
I think 2 future 1st rounders should do it
Sincerely,A somewhat concerned Addai ownerActually I'll hang on to Addai as a RB3/4 w/ Benson vs. selling low now. Need to see if DB can make it vs. NFL competition and pick up the blitzing LB'ers. One or two whiffs where Peyton gets crushed will limit his PT (IMO) - at least this season. This will be a full blown RBBC (per Polian). Addai just needs to stay healthy and produce to keep his share. If he goes down for a month (unfortunately not improbable) - his role might dwindle if DB is performing well.Blackjacks
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
It's not. However I think Westbrook can still play well for another 2 years. So that affects where I would take him.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Blackjacks,I'll try to get to it this weekend. I've been swamped with magazine work. I'm going to need to carve out about a 3-hour window to update the rankings.
bigmurd
Footballguy
F&L,I think what you do is great - thanks for all the effort.PSIt's time to wake up and smell what's cookin' with Slaton my man - he needs a little bump in your rankings
Blackjacks
Footballguy
I wasn't trying to rush you at all. Whenever you can get to it would be much appreciated. I love looking at your updates.BTW: I see your extremely high on Chris Johnson. Do you think he starts to et some goal line looks?Look forward to your updated version whenever you get around to it.Thanks
Steelers22
Footballguy
My wr as of now are (you start 3 non ppr dynasty league)
Anquan Boldin
Greg Jennings
Roy Williams
Antonio Bryant
Donte Stallworth
I was thinking about offering the following trade but I am not 100% sold it would be a great deal for me so I was just looking for some input
I lose:
Anquan Boldin and his choice of Roy Williams/Antonio Bryant
I receive:
Either Andre or Calvin Johnson
all help is greatly appreciated
Anquan Boldin
Greg Jennings
Roy Williams
Antonio Bryant
Donte Stallworth
I was thinking about offering the following trade but I am not 100% sold it would be a great deal for me so I was just looking for some input
I lose:
Anquan Boldin and his choice of Roy Williams/Antonio Bryant
I receive:
Either Andre or Calvin Johnson
all help is greatly appreciated
I'd move those guys for Calvin. You'd still have great wr's...
Harjiran
Footballguy
But do you make that deal if you're the AJ or Calvin owner? I wouldn't. As a general rule, I don't trade true studs for a bunch of lesser players. I build my team around my studs. Boldin is a nice player but Roy Williams/Antonio Bryant as throw ins? No thanks. If you can find someone who's willing to make that deal, I say go for it. Without question, it would absolutely be a great deal for you. But if I'm the Calvin owner, I'm countering you with Boldin + Greg Jennings. Even then, I'm probably not moving an ascending superstar like Calvin. What's the point?
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Not yet. I'm slowly coming around to the idea, and I just got a Blackberry yesterday after dealing with a caveman phone for years. Our magazine work will be done after this weekend, so I can resume normal living after that. I'll try to get the blog updated (and keep it up to date on a constant basis) ... and I guess look into this Twitter thing that all the kids are talking about.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
You old fogey.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
While twittering on the surface might sound pretty innocuous we all know it is the devils work.
Tau837
Footballguy
Saw the updated(except for TE) rankings on roto, good work as always.
A couple thoughts:
1. After the "McFadden is the guy to buy this offseason" article I expected him to be a little higher. Closer to 10th than 20th.
2. Glad to see McNabb is getting the respect he deserves, I'd still take him over Cutler or Romo, but I'll settle for the same tier.
3. Its kind of funny how the WR tiers turned out, I was looking at the pre draft update and thinking that tier 2 dropped off after White so that was cool to see.
4. The rookie RB's seem high, especially Beanie(can he catch?) but then again I thought that last year and was proven wrong.
5. Looking at the previous rankings, I'm expecting Dustin Keller to move up at TE since he's now the #2 target and, in theory, they have the QB position figured out.
6. Bold stand against Clinton Portis, can't say I disagree, but I've counted him out prematurely before.
7. I realize they are over 30, but I think Moss and Smith could be in tier one. I think they are just as likely as any of the guys in tier one to be the #1 WR the next couple years, especially Moss.
8. Still kind think either DeAngelo or Stewart are too high. With 2 more years for DeAngelo in Carolina, how big of a long term payoff are you expecting for Stewart to be that high? Or how big of a workload are you expecting Stewart to take for DeAngelo to be that low?
9. Is Brandon Marshall rated as though he'll be in the clear, at least for now?
10. Don't really have a 10th thought, but 9 thoughts doesn't seem right, so thanks again for talking me(and others) into Chris Johnson last preseason.
A couple thoughts:
1. After the "McFadden is the guy to buy this offseason" article I expected him to be a little higher. Closer to 10th than 20th.
2. Glad to see McNabb is getting the respect he deserves, I'd still take him over Cutler or Romo, but I'll settle for the same tier.
3. Its kind of funny how the WR tiers turned out, I was looking at the pre draft update and thinking that tier 2 dropped off after White so that was cool to see.
4. The rookie RB's seem high, especially Beanie(can he catch?) but then again I thought that last year and was proven wrong.
5. Looking at the previous rankings, I'm expecting Dustin Keller to move up at TE since he's now the #2 target and, in theory, they have the QB position figured out.
6. Bold stand against Clinton Portis, can't say I disagree, but I've counted him out prematurely before.
7. I realize they are over 30, but I think Moss and Smith could be in tier one. I think they are just as likely as any of the guys in tier one to be the #1 WR the next couple years, especially Moss.
8. Still kind think either DeAngelo or Stewart are too high. With 2 more years for DeAngelo in Carolina, how big of a long term payoff are you expecting for Stewart to be that high? Or how big of a workload are you expecting Stewart to take for DeAngelo to be that low?
9. Is Brandon Marshall rated as though he'll be in the clear, at least for now?
10. Don't really have a 10th thought, but 9 thoughts doesn't seem right, so thanks again for talking me(and others) into Chris Johnson last preseason.
Link?
EBF
Footballguy
Looks pretty good. I like the Percy Harvin <3. I think everyone will be singing the same tune once they see him on the field this season. As far as the rest of the WRs, I'm a little more bullish on Jennings. I have him as the WR3 and wouldn't pass on him for 30+ Moss and Smith. He only has one elite season under his belt, but he looks like a keeper. I think Eddie Royal is a better football player than Roy Williams and Anthony Gonzalez. I can see why their situations might give them the edge, but in the long run I would rather have Royal. I would put Hester at the top of that sixth tier. I think he's better than the rest of those guys (except maybe Avery and the ancient Ward) and he has a great opportunity this season. Most of the other guys ranked in the 30+ range are a grab bag of longshots and has-beens. I don't have much to say about them.
IMO there aren't many good dynasty RBs in the NFL right now. Most of the best options are either too old or too unproven. So while I definitely wouldn't feel comfortable grabbing CJ at RB3 or Forte at RB5, there are aren't many other backs who are obviously superior. I think Stewart is too low. I have him as a top 5-10 value. You'll have to wait 1-2 seasons, but he's plenty young and talented. Putting aside the fact that I think McFadden will be a flop, I don't see an appreciable difference in value between him and Mendenhall. Both are young first round backs who have proven nothing, but could pay huge dividends. I would rank Rashard somewhere in that 15-20 range. I also think Felix Jones and Shonn Greene might be 5-10 spots too low. I won't be surprised if Beanie Wells is considered the sophomore RB at this time next year, but the thought of drafting him at RB10 will give me nightmares.
IMO there aren't many good dynasty RBs in the NFL right now. Most of the best options are either too old or too unproven. So while I definitely wouldn't feel comfortable grabbing CJ at RB3 or Forte at RB5, there are aren't many other backs who are obviously superior. I think Stewart is too low. I have him as a top 5-10 value. You'll have to wait 1-2 seasons, but he's plenty young and talented. Putting aside the fact that I think McFadden will be a flop, I don't see an appreciable difference in value between him and Mendenhall. Both are young first round backs who have proven nothing, but could pay huge dividends. I would rank Rashard somewhere in that 15-20 range. I also think Felix Jones and Shonn Greene might be 5-10 spots too low. I won't be surprised if Beanie Wells is considered the sophomore RB at this time next year, but the thought of drafting him at RB10 will give me nightmares.
Michael Fox Fan
Footballguy
Why take Stewart as high as RB5-10, if you can wait and get him for a lower price mid-year when people realize that he's not getting 1500 yards and 15 TDs (unless D Williams gets injured)? Much like valuing a stock, I just don't see what the 2009 catalyst is that will propel Stewart's value upward (again, barring injury to Williams).
EBF
Footballguy
I said I have him as a top 5-10 value. I didn't say you should draft him that high.
Michael Fox Fan
Footballguy
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
Even if he starts out not getting many touches or not doing much with what he is getting, he will still be hard to pry away from dynasty owners.Got it, I'm with you there. Huge fan of Stewart, hope that he has a terrible 1st half of the season.
