ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Thanks to both of you. I missed that post somehow.
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Dynasty Rankings (10 Viewers)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
- Start date
inzanitee
Footballguy
Great site, thx.
Any thoughts on Malcolm Floyd? Did pretty decent last year with Chambers ailing, nice production with limited opportunities. IIRC this could be the last season Chambers is with the team.
You have him ranked behind guys like Brandon Stokley, Marvin Harrison, Brandon Jones etc. I take it you think he has no shot at ever being a starter?
Any thoughts on Malcolm Floyd? Did pretty decent last year with Chambers ailing, nice production with limited opportunities. IIRC this could be the last season Chambers is with the team.
You have him ranked behind guys like Brandon Stokley, Marvin Harrison, Brandon Jones etc. I take it you think he has no shot at ever being a starter?
renesauz
IBL Representative
Four years in the league, and he has yet to play a full season or crack the top 50. He is what he is....a decent depth piece for an NFL team, but it's highly doubtful he'll ever be much more then that. If anything, F&L might have him over-ranked
perry147
Footballguy
Four years in the league, and he has yet to play a full season or crack the top 50. He is what he is....a decent depth piece for an NFL team, but it's highly doubtful he'll ever be much more then that. If anything, F&L might have him over-ranked
VJ is the one to want.
Tau837
Footballguy
Posts from other threads on Floyd:
Just Win Baby said:
Just Win Baby said:
Just Win Baby said:
foxco
Footballguy
Interesting info on Floyd. Wasn't really on my radar at all, and judging by the rankings he isn't on F&L's either. Could be a good "throw-in" to target in a trade.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I had him ranked significantly higher last year in the second half of the season, but he's not the kind of guy who has much value during the offseason. I like him as the Chargers No. 3 receiver with a chance to enter your starting lineup if/when Chambers or V-Jax gets injured, but I don't see him as NFL starter material ... he's kind of like Nate Washington that way. Just Win Baby has a good point about Chambers being a free agent after the season. I hadn't given much thought to it, but the Chargers also have to throw money at Rivers, Gates & Merriman, so upgrading at WR or keeping Chambers with a new deal may not be high on their priorities. It's certainly possible that Floyd could fall through the cracks and enter the starting lineup next season. It's also possible that the Chargers let Floyd walk as a free agent.
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First off, great blog F&L. I've always found it very useful and informative.
Question... I'm a little surprised that you have Brian Brohm ranked, but not Matt Flynn. All indications point to Flynn being the clear back-up in GB. Granted neither holds much value with Rogers at the helm. Any reason why you're higher on Brohm than Flynn?
Question... I'm a little surprised that you have Brian Brohm ranked, but not Matt Flynn. All indications point to Flynn being the clear back-up in GB. Granted neither holds much value with Rogers at the helm. Any reason why you're higher on Brohm than Flynn?
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Thanks, mobb deep. Appreciate it.Well, Flynn was a 7th round draft pick who profiles as a long-term backup QB. Brohm was a second-round pick who was given a first-round grade by the Packers. You want the one with the best chance of becoming an NFL starter -- or better yet, a fantasy football asset -- down the road. And the one with the best chance is Brohm. He's not the first high-round QB to struggle early in his career. In fact, Aaron Rodgers went through similar growing pains in his first couple of seasons behind Favre.
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Hey F&L,
Thank you for the prompt response last month.
Couple questions for you:
1) You currently have Vick as QB27. Since your last QB rankings (May 28th) it's looked progressively worse for Vick to play in the NFL anytime soon. This has led me to basically devalue him entirely. Would you agree with this assessment? Or do you still hold that Vick's upside warrants a value around QB30?
2) If convenient, can you expand (or give a link to something you've wrote) a bit on why you like Beanie as much as you do? His situation for this year is obviously pretty good, but neither of us value guys near the top 10 based purely on situation. To be there, they need to already be a top back, or have some serious upside talent-wise. I've watched his highlight reel, and while he looks good, he doesn't really ever make you go "wow" like how Chris Johnson's or Purple Jesus' do. From what I've read and seen, his upside talent-wise seems to be around RB10.
I would put him just a bit above Kevin Smith (better situation, more talent, unproven at the NFL level). But you're the guy who turned me onto Chris Johnson last year, so I'd love to be able to see what you see in Wells.
Thank you for the prompt response last month.
Couple questions for you:
1) You currently have Vick as QB27. Since your last QB rankings (May 28th) it's looked progressively worse for Vick to play in the NFL anytime soon. This has led me to basically devalue him entirely. Would you agree with this assessment? Or do you still hold that Vick's upside warrants a value around QB30?
2) If convenient, can you expand (or give a link to something you've wrote) a bit on why you like Beanie as much as you do? His situation for this year is obviously pretty good, but neither of us value guys near the top 10 based purely on situation. To be there, they need to already be a top back, or have some serious upside talent-wise. I've watched his highlight reel, and while he looks good, he doesn't really ever make you go "wow" like how Chris Johnson's or Purple Jesus' do. From what I've read and seen, his upside talent-wise seems to be around RB10.
I would put him just a bit above Kevin Smith (better situation, more talent, unproven at the NFL level). But you're the guy who turned me onto Chris Johnson last year, so I'd love to be able to see what you see in Wells.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
1) Re: Vick. I wouldn't move him much until I hear what Goodell has decided and which teams are interested after the decision. IMO his fantasy upside merits a hold. I'd probably move him down a few spots right now, but it's not like any of the guys below him are going to knock your socks off either.
2) Re: Wells. I have a respected Ohio State fan friend who calls him 95% of Adrian Peterson, which, frankly, I don't quite see. I thought Peterson was the most talented runner to enter the league since at least Bo Jackson, and, you're right: Wells doesn't really jump out at you the way Peterson and Chris Johnson do. I'd consider moving him down a few spots, but I also realize you have to value players highly if they have a chance to be special (your example, Kevin Smith, is not a guy who will ever be special IMO). I also don't mind valuing unproven players highly if I have a strong feeling about their talent. I don't feel quite as strongly about Wells' NFL future as I do Moreno's, but I do think Wells is a very talented back ... more of a Jamal Lewis in his prime than a Peterson type. Throw in a great situation on one of the best offenses in the league, and he could be money right off the bat.
I wouldn't say Wells' "upside talent-wise" is around ten. I think it's quite a bit higher. And if you think an untested player has a chance to be a difference-maker, you have to value him higher than an average fantasy starter until he proves you wrong. Just my .02.
2) Re: Wells. I have a respected Ohio State fan friend who calls him 95% of Adrian Peterson, which, frankly, I don't quite see. I thought Peterson was the most talented runner to enter the league since at least Bo Jackson, and, you're right: Wells doesn't really jump out at you the way Peterson and Chris Johnson do. I'd consider moving him down a few spots, but I also realize you have to value players highly if they have a chance to be special (your example, Kevin Smith, is not a guy who will ever be special IMO). I also don't mind valuing unproven players highly if I have a strong feeling about their talent. I don't feel quite as strongly about Wells' NFL future as I do Moreno's, but I do think Wells is a very talented back ... more of a Jamal Lewis in his prime than a Peterson type. Throw in a great situation on one of the best offenses in the league, and he could be money right off the bat.
I wouldn't say Wells' "upside talent-wise" is around ten. I think it's quite a bit higher. And if you think an untested player has a chance to be a difference-maker, you have to value him higher than an average fantasy starter until he proves you wrong. Just my .02.
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Thank you very much for that link. Helps me understand what people see in the guy. I couldn't agree more with your other philosophical thoughts. Just couldn't see where the excitement over his talent was coming (now I can at least see it, even if I may not quite be sold yet.)
As always, thanks for the time you devote to this stuff.
Thank you very much for that link. Helps me understand what people see in the guy. I couldn't agree more with your other philosophical thoughts. Just couldn't see where the excitement over his talent was coming (now I can at least see it, even if I may not quite be sold yet.)
As always, thanks for the time you devote to this stuff.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Thank you, Treat.My IDP knowledge is severely lacking compared to many of the Dynasty owners around here, so I'd be hesitant to start showing off my ignorance there. I've tried to brush up a bit this offseason, but I'll still be lacking until I start playing in IDP leagues ... which may happen as soon as this season. It's on the agenda, but there's no timetable as of yet.
THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA
Footballguy
F&L hey bud, i need some insight.
I value your dyno rankings alot.
I am contemplating a deal that would make me considerably older but stronger for the short term in dynasty.
I guess im trying to go all in for this year and next year maybe. Anyway here is the offer in a NON ppr dynasty but we have scoring bonuses like 5fp for every 25rushes in a game and for wr's the get the bonus for 9rec's in a game and 30 completions in a game for qb's.
here is the deal:
Delhomme, Jake CAR QB
Fargas, Justin OAK RB
Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB
Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB
Year 2010 Round 1 Draft Pick
TEAM X will give up:
Betts, Ladell WAS RB
Norwood, Jerious ATL RB
Portis, Clinton WAS RB
Turner, Michael ATL RB
Year 2010 Round 2 Draft Pick
those guys you have values on your dynasty rankings like this:
7. Michael Turner, ATL | Age: 27.5 | Value Score: 87
9. Knowshon Moreno, DEN | Age: 22.2 | Value Score: 76
16. Jonathan Stewart, CAR | Age: 22.5 | Value Score: 70
20. Clinton Portis, WAS | Age: 28.0 | Value Score: 62
49. Jerious Norwood, ATL | Age: 26.1 | Value Score: 9
58. Justin Fargas, OAK | Age: 29.6 | Value Score: 4
Not sure where you have Betts and Delhomme listed. Also there is an upgrade from a 2nd to a 1st in there also for the team getting the young backs.
Just curious as to which i should make SUCH A MAJOR DYNASTY move like this:
As for my overall team and starters, here they are: (Current starters in BOLD)
Brees, Drew NOS QB -Ryan, Matt ATL QB - Delhomme, Jake CAR QB - Rosenfels, Sage MIN QB - Young, Vince TEN QB -
Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB -Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB ® - Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB - Bradshaw, Ahmad NYG RB -Mendenhall, Rashard PIT RB - Duckett, T.J. SEA RB - Fargas, Justin OAK RB - Brown, Andre NYG RB ® - Ware, Danny NYG RB - Ogbonnaya, Chris STL RB ® -Sheets, Kory SFO RB ® -
Boldin, Anquan ARI WR -Wayne, Reggie IND WR - Driver, Donald GBP WR -Gage, Justin TEN WR - Robiskie, Brian CLE WR ® - Thomas, Devin WAS WR -Austin, Miles DAL WR - Stuckey, Chansi NYJ WR -
Olsen, Greg CHI TE - Finley, Jermichael GBP TE -
Bironas, Rob TEN PK -
Jets, New York NYJ Def
what do ya think?
I value your dyno rankings alot.
I am contemplating a deal that would make me considerably older but stronger for the short term in dynasty.
I guess im trying to go all in for this year and next year maybe. Anyway here is the offer in a NON ppr dynasty but we have scoring bonuses like 5fp for every 25rushes in a game and for wr's the get the bonus for 9rec's in a game and 30 completions in a game for qb's.
here is the deal:
Delhomme, Jake CAR QB
Fargas, Justin OAK RB
Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB
Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB
Year 2010 Round 1 Draft Pick
TEAM X will give up:
Betts, Ladell WAS RB
Norwood, Jerious ATL RB
Portis, Clinton WAS RB
Turner, Michael ATL RB
Year 2010 Round 2 Draft Pick
those guys you have values on your dynasty rankings like this:
7. Michael Turner, ATL | Age: 27.5 | Value Score: 87
9. Knowshon Moreno, DEN | Age: 22.2 | Value Score: 76
16. Jonathan Stewart, CAR | Age: 22.5 | Value Score: 70
20. Clinton Portis, WAS | Age: 28.0 | Value Score: 62
49. Jerious Norwood, ATL | Age: 26.1 | Value Score: 9
58. Justin Fargas, OAK | Age: 29.6 | Value Score: 4
Not sure where you have Betts and Delhomme listed. Also there is an upgrade from a 2nd to a 1st in there also for the team getting the young backs.
Just curious as to which i should make SUCH A MAJOR DYNASTY move like this:
As for my overall team and starters, here they are: (Current starters in BOLD)
Brees, Drew NOS QB -Ryan, Matt ATL QB - Delhomme, Jake CAR QB - Rosenfels, Sage MIN QB - Young, Vince TEN QB -
Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB -Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB ® - Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB - Bradshaw, Ahmad NYG RB -Mendenhall, Rashard PIT RB - Duckett, T.J. SEA RB - Fargas, Justin OAK RB - Brown, Andre NYG RB ® - Ware, Danny NYG RB - Ogbonnaya, Chris STL RB ® -Sheets, Kory SFO RB ® -
Boldin, Anquan ARI WR -Wayne, Reggie IND WR - Driver, Donald GBP WR -Gage, Justin TEN WR - Robiskie, Brian CLE WR ® - Thomas, Devin WAS WR -Austin, Miles DAL WR - Stuckey, Chansi NYJ WR -
Olsen, Greg CHI TE - Finley, Jermichael GBP TE -
Bironas, Rob TEN PK -
Jets, New York NYJ Def
what do ya think?
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Considering your team, I don't see a reason to go after both Turner and Portis. You already have D-Willy. In the same vein, I don't see a reason to give up both young studs Moreno and Stewart. I'd try something for Turner alone, but I know you'd have to give up more than just Moreno or Stewart. That's hell of a lot of young RB value to be selling off for a shot at the title. I know I'm considered a heavy short-term guy b/c of the "swing for the fences" philosophy, but keep in mind the cardinal Dynasty rule: always maintain a balanced nucleus of young studs and reliable veterans.
What if you did Moreno, Delhomme, Fargas and the No. 1 for Turner and Norwood?
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THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA
Footballguy
To be honest he doesnt value Fargas or Delhomme all that much, sure he may can use them or pawn them off in other deals to sweeten them but not sure he do that.I do think this is alot, but i would still have Mendenhall and the Gmen backup rb's.... And i am VERY high on Stewert and wouldnt deal him for alot of rb's alone.
But you might have not paid attention to one thing i posted. We get a 5 fp a game BONUS for a rb that has 25 rushes in a game. Turner had hit the BONUS 8 times last year...and missed it by 2 carries or less in 2 other games. That almost like adding him with an EXTRA 9 TD's on top of his last year numbers: 377 1699 17 , this what makes him so valuable in this league i am in.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I hear you. When you have funky rules like that, I'd throw outsider advice out the window and go with your gut. I still say that's a lot of young RB value to give up in a Dynasty league, and my spidey sense tells me to stay away from Portis ... but it's your call. It just seems like more of an end of the year grasp for the playoffs kind of trade rather than a July trade.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Hi Ben,I think you killed him. I like D-Bo a lot, but V-Jax is about to blow up this season, so they're not far apart. Rivers and Eli are night & day though. Eli is the most overrated player I've seen since I've been following football ... and I still can't figure out his fantasy football allure. Why would anybody strive for mediocrity? It certainly doesn't help you win.F&L - How ya doin?I just traded Eli Manning and Dwayne Bowe for Philip Rivers and Vincent Jackson in my Dynasty League. Did I get as awesome of a deal as I think I did?You pretty busy at Roto? Look forward to the season when your blog is more active.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Dynasty Rising/Falling: Quarterbacks at Rotoworld's Pancake Blocks.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
ESPN's John Clayton on Matt Ryan:
I've had Ryan ranked as a Top-5 Dynasty QB all offseason, so I'm obviously on board with the Manning/Brady comparisons. He's special.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Dynasty Rising/Falling: Running Backs at Rotoworld's Pancake Blocks
Ahmad Bradshaw with an honorable mention. Where do you see him this year? A decent flex option or a guy you hold in case Jacobs gets hurt?
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Could be both this season a la Derrick Ward last season. My thoughts on Bradshaw:
I was very impressed with his play down the stretch in the 2007-08 playoff run. He ran bigger and tougher than you would expect for a back of his size.
I've been disappointed that he's not as much of a receiving threat as I thought he would be coming out of Marshall, and he doesn't hold a candle to Ward on blocking ability. Bradshaw caught 56 passes at Marshall in 2005, so it appears to be more of a blocking issue than a hands issue.
I've had Danny Ware on a deep sleeper watch list for a couple of years. Football Outsiders, surprisingly, expects Ware to beat out Bradshaw for 1B duties to Jacobs' 1A, but I side with Newsday's Bob Glauber who predicts a breakout season for Bradshaw.
GM Jerry Reese confirmed that Bradshaw is ahead of Ware and will step in when Jacobs goes down with one of his injuries.
Andre Brown, one of my favorite mid-round rookies, limits Bradshaw's long-term upside.
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Nice to see Brent Celek moving up the rankings. I'm kinda thinking he could be the Eagles version of Chris Cooley and that could turn into top-10 TE production for Celek.
One guy who I'm starting to get a little high on is Johnnie Lee Higgins(at least as a flyer) who very quietly had as many TD's over the last 7 weeks as any WR in the NFL except for Randy Moss. I'm not saying he can carry that over, but I think its very possible he'll be the Raiders #1 WR and for a guy who is probably on waivers in many dynasty leagues that's an underrated commodity. I see some Santana Moss like potential there if Russell ever gets it, or perhaps more likely, if Garcia gets in the lineup.
One guy who I'm starting to get a little high on is Johnnie Lee Higgins(at least as a flyer) who very quietly had as many TD's over the last 7 weeks as any WR in the NFL except for Randy Moss. I'm not saying he can carry that over, but I think its very possible he'll be the Raiders #1 WR and for a guy who is probably on waivers in many dynasty leagues that's an underrated commodity. I see some Santana Moss like potential there if Russell ever gets it, or perhaps more likely, if Garcia gets in the lineup.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Yeah, I liked Higgins as the WR to own in Oakland coming off that second half where he showed explosive playmaking ability, but then literally everything I've read over the past four months points toward Chaz Schilens as the guy to own. I didn't see much of Schilens down the stretch, but Gregg Rosenthal really liked what he saw of his size and athleticism when he reviewed some tape. Al Davis is very high on him, which can't hurt. The Raiders beat writers say he owned spring practices, and he's reportedly a terrific blocker -- which goes a long way in an offense dominated by the ground game. His 47% catch rate isn't very promising, but it's tough to tell how much of that is due to JaMarcus Russell throwing the ball. If DHB can get healthy, it's expected to be Schilens No. 1, DHB No. 2 and Higgins in the slot, which I think severely limits Higgins' fantasy potential in an offense where even the No. 1 WR wasn't a fantasy factor last season.
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
In my long-time 11-player keeper league, I recently chose to keep Celek over Hines Ward and Tony Scheffler as my 4th and final WR/TE. Part of that is because our playoffs coincide with the NFL playoffs, which gives Super Bowl contenders more value and part of it is because tight ends get extra points relative to wide receivers, but it's also because I think McNabb is going to turn to Celek a lot this season. How many tight ends ever record one game in their careers like the two Celek put up last season? Subbing for LJ Smith in Week 9, he posted six catches for a monster 131 yards, and then once he finally won the job outright from Smith he took on a huge role in the playoffs, highlighted by his 10-catch, 83-yard, 2-TD breakthrough against the Cardinals in the NFC Championship. He's athletic with great hands and McNabb always knows where to find him. Football Outsiders predict 40 catches for 406 yards and 2 TDs, which I think is awfully conservative considering the two monster games he produced once he finally nailed down starting duties late last season.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
Slot guys carry more value when the RBs and TEs aren't very involved in the passing game. If McFadden stays healthy, plus the continued maturation of Zach Miller, the ceiling for Higgins isn't very high given the low number of completions the Raiders are likely to have in total. I think Schilens will catch the most passes to WRs and Higgins will probably outperform DHB in 2009, but neither of the latter two will give owners more than an occasional reason for excitement when JR connects on a bomb.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
I'm on board with Celek. I think when we look back on 2009, he and Jermichael Finley will turn out to have been the most underrated TEs. Consensus now according to FBG's ADP sorter are TE19 for Celek and no ranking among top 21 for Finley. Celek could get to the 7-8 range and Finley could get to 14-16 I think.
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/a...ortby=consensus
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/a...ortby=consensus
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I think Finley may be another year away from steady fantasy production. He's clearly talented, but what gives me slight pause in Dynasty leagues is that it's just as clear that he's a major knucklehead.
Looking strictly at Dynasty RBs for the long run I've been quite surprised at how low Gartrell Johnson has been taken in the majority of drafts. The guy could be a beast given the opportunity, I realise he has limitations when considering speed and "moves", but as a straight line runner he is outstanding, a lot like Davis was with Carolina and Washington.
I believe the opportunity will be there before not too long, and as good as Sproles has been I just can not see the coaching staff giving the reins to him exclusively, as a matter of opinion I don't think his role will change dramatically at all due to his size, durability and his own injury issues, yes he filled in admirably last year and IMHO really excelled, but I don't see that happening over the course of a full season year after year, he has so much more value to them besides packing the rock that I just can't envision them taking the risk.
Obviously, there are no gaurantees that he will succeed, but that applies to all rookies.
Maybe I'm missing something but when I see the likes of Bernard Scott, Ringer and Coffee being taken ahead of him I have to wonder if my eyes were decieving me when I watched him last year.
Your thoughts? Also, this is a great thread and I admire how you have manned it, kudos!
I believe the opportunity will be there before not too long, and as good as Sproles has been I just can not see the coaching staff giving the reins to him exclusively, as a matter of opinion I don't think his role will change dramatically at all due to his size, durability and his own injury issues, yes he filled in admirably last year and IMHO really excelled, but I don't see that happening over the course of a full season year after year, he has so much more value to them besides packing the rock that I just can't envision them taking the risk.
Obviously, there are no gaurantees that he will succeed, but that applies to all rookies.
Maybe I'm missing something but when I see the likes of Bernard Scott, Ringer and Coffee being taken ahead of him I have to wonder if my eyes were decieving me when I watched him last year.
Your thoughts? Also, this is a great thread and I admire how you have manned it, kudos!
EBF
Footballguy
Moreno, Wells, Brown, McCoy, and Greene are the top 5 rookie RBs picked in every league. Once you get beyond that cluster, I like Gartrell Johnson as much as anyone. I have him neck and neck with Andre Brown. In some respects, they're complete opposites.
Brown is a workout warrior who never lived up to his hype on the football field. Johnson is a productive runner whose results greatly exceed the sum of his physical parts. The player he reminds me of is Mike Anderson. He doesn't have the kind of jaw-dropping talent that you hope for from a franchise back, but he's capable of stepping in and producing when given the opportunity.
My big concern is whether or not he has enough upside to emerge as the long term heir to LT's starting job. If you want to be a long term starter in the NFL, good isn't good enough. You have to be great. I don't know if Johnson has the potential for greatness. However, his price tag is low and he's certainly capable of an immediate value spike ala Tim Hightower and Wali Lundy. I think he's a pretty good pickup if the price is right.
Brown is a workout warrior who never lived up to his hype on the football field. Johnson is a productive runner whose results greatly exceed the sum of his physical parts. The player he reminds me of is Mike Anderson. He doesn't have the kind of jaw-dropping talent that you hope for from a franchise back, but he's capable of stepping in and producing when given the opportunity.
My big concern is whether or not he has enough upside to emerge as the long term heir to LT's starting job. If you want to be a long term starter in the NFL, good isn't good enough. You have to be great. I don't know if Johnson has the potential for greatness. However, his price tag is low and he's certainly capable of an immediate value spike ala Tim Hightower and Wali Lundy. I think he's a pretty good pickup if the price is right.
kremenull
Footballguy
I like Ryan as well and think your rankings are pretty strong, but I just can't see Ryan above Rodgers. I believe Rodgers is already an elite QB in the NFL as well as fantasy, as cemented by his 28 TDs last year and very good TD/int ratio. Ryan is not quite to that level yet so he still has to prove himself, IMO, to leapfrog guys like Cutler and Rivers, who I believe are both below Rodgers. Rodgers is right there with the consensus Top 3 (Brady, Manning, and Brees), possibly the 4th of the trio based on proven track record but I'd have a very hard time taking more than one of these guys over Rodgers in a dynasty startup draft.
kremenull
Footballguy
Hey F&L,
I would like to hear your reasoning behind the disparity in rank of two specific players: Chris Johnson #3 RB, Steve Slaton #18 RB.
I think both guys are very similar, and since they are in the same division and played roughly the same schedule and received roughly the same number of touches and produced roughly the same amount of fantasy points, what is causing such a difference in rank? I mean, this is a huge disparity, don't you think?
TIA
I would like to hear your reasoning behind the disparity in rank of two specific players: Chris Johnson #3 RB, Steve Slaton #18 RB.
I think both guys are very similar, and since they are in the same division and played roughly the same schedule and received roughly the same number of touches and produced roughly the same amount of fantasy points, what is causing such a difference in rank? I mean, this is a huge disparity, don't you think?
TIA
Obviously I am looking forward to F&L's response too. But, I will step in and offer my opinion as a Titans fan. CJ's speed is combined with elusiveness and CUTTING ability that is out of this world. So it allows a guy who has a body that might not be the typical every down runner to last. Think about it, last year did you see CJ get hit hard? They cant get him.
Slaton is a good back but I don't think he can hold up like CJ can. I think its just a matter of time before Slaton gets hurt... Just a humble opinion.
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kremenull
Footballguy
Really? I thought it was Chris Johnson, not Slaton, who was standing on the sidelines in a team raincoat for the entire 2nd half of the biggest game of the season? Due to what? A twisted ankle. Get back in that game, kid, toughen up!I kind of see where you are going with your logic, but RBs eventually all have to bring it up the middle sometimes. This is where most injuries occur, not on the perimeter runs where guys like both Johnson and Slaton can get to open space and shake and shimmy a bit to avoid the head-on big blows. But in the middle of the field, there will be contact. And here is where Slaton easily has the advantage. In reviewing game film of both runners, Slaton is a far better inside runner than Johnson, and very underrated by many in this regard due to his size. Slaton is much closer to Westbrook than Johnson not only in body-type and build, but also in running style (inside and out) and overall skill set.Obviously I am looking forward to F&L's response too. But, I will step in and offer my opinion as a Titans fan. CJ's speed is combined with elusiveness and CUTTING ability that is out of this world. So it allows a guy who has a body that might not be the typical every down runner to last. Think about it, last year did you see CJ get hit hard? They cant get him.
Agree to disagree.Really? I thought it was Chris Johnson, not Slaton, who was standing on the sidelines in a team raincoat for the entire 2nd half of the biggest game of the season? Due to what? A twisted ankle. Get back in that game, kid, toughen up!I kind of see where you are going with your logic, but RBs eventually all have to bring it up the middle sometimes. This is where most injuries occur, not on the perimeter runs where guys like both Johnson and Slaton can get to open space and shake and shimmy a bit to avoid the head-on big blows. But in the middle of the field, there will be contact. And here is where Slaton easily has the advantage. In reviewing game film of both runners, Slaton is a far better inside runner than Johnson, and very underrated by many in this regard due to his size. Slaton is much closer to Westbrook than Johnson not only in body-type and build, but also in running style (inside and out) and overall skill set.Obviously I am looking forward to F&L's response too. But, I will step in and offer my opinion as a Titans fan. CJ's speed is combined with elusiveness and CUTTING ability that is out of this world. So it allows a guy who has a body that might not be the typical every down runner to last. Think about it, last year did you see CJ get hit hard? They cant get him.
But, lets see what happens this year.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
kremenull, I respect your opinion, and I like Aaron Rodgers because he's very good. But you may have stumbled on the wrong thread. One thing I've tried all along not to be is consensus. I like Rodgers a lot b/c he's very good, but personally I believe Matt Ryan can be special. And I'm a lot more concerned about anticipation than consensus. I anticipate that Ryan will be a difference maker. I might be wrong, but I'm standing by it.
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I hope you're ready for a strong opinion because it's coming. First, I disagree strongly that they're similar players. Chris Johnson is one of the two or three most talented backs in the NFL. His speed and athleticism are on another plane. His fantasy ceiling is exceeded only by Adrian Peterson. I've noticed that Slaton owners always want to compare their guy to CJ, but Johnson are in no way occupied with Slaton. There's a reason for that. What Johnson owners saw all year was the centerpiece of the Titans offense, who as a rookie, drew 8 or 9 in the box as the only offensive threat. While Chris Johnson was carrying the Titans on his back and making Kerry Collins look like an MVP candidate for a few weeks, Slaton was taking advantage of Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, Owen Daniels and Matt Schaub drawing the defensive attention away. Even better for Slaton, he had the opportunity to run behind a one-cut scheme that was perfectly suited for his skills. I would love to see the difference b/w the two backs if Johnson got to run in the Texans offense while Slaton slammed his body into the line every time against a 9-man front.
Over the past few years, I've had strong feelings about a few backs not measuring up as great long-term investments. Dominick Williams, Willie Parker and Joseph Addai are the ones I've taken the most grief about. I got killed for not ranking them highly when everyone else loved them. Slaton is next in that line. I admit that he could be much better than I give him credit for, but it's my reputation on the line, so I plan on ranking them how I think they should be ranked long term. And whereas Chris Johnson will be the offensive centerpiece for the Titans long-term, I don't think Slaton will have much more of a role than Willie Parker in the next year or two. The bottom line, as with all nucleus players in Dynasty leagues, is staying power. I don't think Slaton comes close to touching Chris Johnson's staying power.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Oh, please. Where do we start?First of all, have you ever had a severely sprained ankle? Johnson was out of commission for months after the injury occurred.Secondly, watching the game should have given you an opportunity to see that the Titans offense is dysfunctional without Johnson. He dominated the second best defense (and possibly the most intimating defense in the league) through the first half of the game, and instead you chose to see that Johnson's high ankle sprain makes him a wuss ... despite the fact that he missed zero games due to injury all year. It should have been clear to anyone who watched that game that Chris Johnson was the best player on the field in the first half, and the game turned on his absence ... not b/c he was too weak to take the field, but because he had a debilitating high ankle sprain.Oh, and I hope Slaton enjoyed watching the game from the sidelines as well. You see, Johnson was a Pro Bowl selection, ROY runner-up, and the best offensive player on a contender. Slaton was at a home thanking Andre Johnson for drawing double teams on an 8-8 team.
treat88
Footballguy
Preach Sensei!Learn to identify talent. Form an opinion with clarity. Be confident in that opinion despite critical input. Win dynasty league.Simple.
kremenull
Footballguy
No, I was not expecting consensus as I actually do like your approach to rankings and non-consensus thinking. And if Ryan is on the way to being special in your eyes, I don't disagree with that position either. My point is that Rodgers should be considered already there, i.e., special, and already in the highest tier. When you can connect on over 63% of 536 pass attempts at 7.5 ypa with a TD/int of over 2/1, along with a high number of TDs (28), this is no fluke in the NFL. Combine this type of QB play with well-above average athleticism and a very strong arm, and probably one of the most QB-friendly systems along the lines of a Manning or Brees type of situation. With all of these things as an advantage over Ryan, I just don't see how Ryan can outdo him.
I think a good comparison and target point for Ryan is to become a Philip Rivers. This is not a diss on Ryan, not in the least as Rivers is very good, IMO, and productive. He just doesn't get as many opportunities as the upper-tier QBs, and I think Ryan will also fall into this category, especially with Turner around.
But I respect the opinion though, and in "sticking to your guns" on this one.
kremenull
Footballguy
I love the first line of your reply. Yeah, I'm ready. Good, strong stances are always respected by me. I don't agree, but if a guy is that convicted, then hey, I sure respect that and given your listed track record, I can see that you have been on the mark quite a few times. And for the record, I've never liked any those guys either (DD, Addai, FWP).Yes, Chris Johnson is more dynamic than Slaton, I agree. But are there 17 other RBs ahead of Slaton in dynasty? In only his 2nd year with the starting gig locked up for the forseeable future and in a prolific offense with a less than stellar o-line (yet still produced big-time), with this ranking, you are essentially saying that this kid is a bum. WOW!
I better sell high........
kremenull
Footballguy
Yes, several. I played hoops at a pretty high level of intensity and competition vs the likes of GP (The Glove), Kidd, Kevin Johnson, and "Hook" Mitchell (local Bay Area playground legend) in my earlier years well past the age of where Chris Johnson is, so yeah, I've experienced a number of high ankle sprains. Lace 'em up tighter and apply some tape over the ankle (and shoe, if needed), and keep on truckin' young fella. Adrenaline works wonders upon first injury. Aside from this, I see the strength of your position and we can part here with a respectful understanding...No prob. But I hope most feel like this with regards to Slaton so I can scoop him up at major discount in all my leagues.
Where do we start?
First of all, have you ever had a severely sprained ankle? Johnson was out of commission for months after the injury occurred.
Secondly, watching the game should have given you an opportunity to see that the Titans offense is dysfunctional without Johnson. He dominated the second best defense (and possibly the most intimating defense in the league) through the first half of the game, and instead you chose to see that Johnson's high ankle sprain makes him a wuss ... despite the fact that he missed zero games due to injury all year. It should have been clear to anyone who watched that game that Chris Johnson was the best player on the field in the first half, and the game turned on his absence ... not b/c he was too weak to take the field, but because he had a debilitating high ankle sprain.
Oh, and I hope Slaton enjoyed watching the game from the sidelines as well. You see, Johnson was a Pro Bowl selection, ROY runner-up, and the best offensive player on a contender. Slaton was at a home thanking Andre Johnson for drawing double teams on an 8-8 team.
Tau837
Footballguy
Interesting that you would use this logic to say Rodgers is special and clearly imply Rivers isn't, when Rivers was better last year at every measure you cited. With arguably lesser targets than Rodgers had.Your comment on Rivers' opportunities implies that you are assuming they won't change in the future. IMO the Chargers' passing game was so dominant last year, it is a nobrainer for the Chargers to gradually switch more to a passing oriented offense as LT declines, particularly since it does not appear they have an heir apparent as a feature back replacement. I would be extremely surprised if Rivers doesn't have more attempts this year than last, more next year than this year, etc.
Rivers has a higher career QB rating than Rodgers, and that is despite playing one of his three seasons in Marty's conservative offense and a second year in transition due to a new coaching staff and significant turnover in his receiving corps. IMO there is absolutely no reason to expect Rodgers to be better going forward.
You just lost some some credibility with that post. lolBasketball and sprains are nothing like football and sprains. You are hilarious. I played on a sprain with gary payton so CJ should have played too. WOWYes, several. I played hoops at a pretty high level of intensity and competition vs the likes of GP (The Glove), Kidd, Kevin Johnson, and "Hook" Mitchell (local Bay Area playground legend) in my earlier years well past the age of where Chris Johnson is, so yeah, I've experienced a number of high ankle sprains. Lace 'em up tighter and apply some tape over the ankle (and shoe, if needed), and keep on truckin' young fella. Adrenaline works wonders upon first injury. Aside from this, I see the strength of your position and we can part here with a respectful understanding...No prob. But I hope most feel like this with regards to Slaton so I can scoop him up at major discount in all my leagues.
Where do we start?
First of all, have you ever had a severely sprained ankle? Johnson was out of commission for months after the injury occurred.
Secondly, watching the game should have given you an opportunity to see that the Titans offense is dysfunctional without Johnson. He dominated the second best defense (and possibly the most intimating defense in the league) through the first half of the game, and instead you chose to see that Johnson's high ankle sprain makes him a wuss ... despite the fact that he missed zero games due to injury all year. It should have been clear to anyone who watched that game that Chris Johnson was the best player on the field in the first half, and the game turned on his absence ... not b/c he was too weak to take the field, but because he had a debilitating high ankle sprain.
Oh, and I hope Slaton enjoyed watching the game from the sidelines as well. You see, Johnson was a Pro Bowl selection, ROY runner-up, and the best offensive player on a contender. Slaton was at a home thanking Andre Johnson for drawing double teams on an 8-8 team.
kremenull
Footballguy
I doubt if I give one piece of lint of a damn, hopefully you follow, about yours or any others perception of my credibility. It all comes down to "$$$ and sense" for me in this fantasy game........And my track record and bankroll from fantasy proves I make plenty of sense......It comes down to pain tolerance, and you obviously have no idea about the nature of ankle sprains in basketball vs football, they are just about exactly the same. In basketball, you are far more likely to sprain an ankle for one, as there is more jumping, and thus landing, on the feet/ankles, or other people's feet, causing various grades of ankle sprains. Also, there is just as much, actually more, sharp cutting in basketball than in football, as there is probably a factor of 4-5x more running in basketball than football and the dynamic athletes in basketball utilize their change of direction skills (i.e., sharp cutting on a dime) just as vigorously as any football player would, observe D-Wade for just a few minutes and you will see this. Just because you perceive (from TV or otherwise) that basketball players aren't really running that hard, let me tell you, at the higher levels basketball is pretty much a continuous sprint back and forth, especially for guards, with much shorter breaks in between than football.You just lost some some credibility with that post. lolBasketball and sprains are nothing like football and sprains. You are hilarious. I played on a sprain with gary payton so CJ should have played too. WOWYes, several. I played hoops at a pretty high level of intensity and competition vs the likes of GP (The Glove), Kidd, Kevin Johnson, and "Hook" Mitchell (local Bay Area playground legend) in my earlier years well past the age of where Chris Johnson is, so yeah, I've experienced a number of high ankle sprains. Lace 'em up tighter and apply some tape over the ankle (and shoe, if needed), and keep on truckin' young fella. Adrenaline works wonders upon first injury. Aside from this, I see the strength of your position and we can part here with a respectful understanding...No prob. But I hope most feel like this with regards to Slaton so I can scoop him up at major discount in all my leagues.
Where do we start?
First of all, have you ever had a severely sprained ankle? Johnson was out of commission for months after the injury occurred.
Secondly, watching the game should have given you an opportunity to see that the Titans offense is dysfunctional without Johnson. He dominated the second best defense (and possibly the most intimating defense in the league) through the first half of the game, and instead you chose to see that Johnson's high ankle sprain makes him a wuss ... despite the fact that he missed zero games due to injury all year. It should have been clear to anyone who watched that game that Chris Johnson was the best player on the field in the first half, and the game turned on his absence ... not b/c he was too weak to take the field, but because he had a debilitating high ankle sprain.
Oh, and I hope Slaton enjoyed watching the game from the sidelines as well. You see, Johnson was a Pro Bowl selection, ROY runner-up, and the best offensive player on a contender. Slaton was at a home thanking Andre Johnson for drawing double teams on an 8-8 team.
Scientifically speaking, there are grades of ankle sprains (I, II, II), and if the grade is the same, then they are similar in severity. One of the most common types for both basketball players and football players is of the "high ankle sprain", whether it be Grade I, II, or III, and these will undoubtedly take longer to heal from as there are additional ligaments above the ankle joint that have been damaged. Either way, every team leader or valuable player would at least give it a try on an injured ankle to see if he could go. Become a decoy, at the least, for a few plays if you can't go any further. From my perspective, I thought the kid didn't even try. And who knows the whole situation, but my only point on this ankle issue was that people are quick to question Slaton's durability but let Johnson slide on by on the same concern.
Look genius. Running around on a basketball court with a sprain just might be different from getting brutalized by 300lb men and being tackled and having 3 huge guys piled on top of that sprain. Running around on a court is controlled by you. You mediate your pain and control what you do. On a football field you get tackled and crushed by 3 guys who fall on your bad ankle. I am done with this. It should be clear to anyone with a brain that football is a bit rougher than basketball and hence would be harder on an ankle.I doubt if I give one piece of lint of a damn, hopefully you follow, about yours or any others perception of my credibility. It all comes down to "$$$ and sense" for me in this fantasy game........And my track record and bankroll from fantasy proves I make plenty of sense......It comes down to pain tolerance, and you obviously have no idea about the nature of ankle sprains in basketball vs football, they are just about exactly the same. In basketball, you are far more likely to sprain an ankle for one, as there is more jumping, and thus landing, on the feet/ankles, or other people's feet, causing various grades of ankle sprains. Also, there is just as much, actually more, sharp cutting in basketball than in football, as there is probably a factor of 4-5x more running in basketball than football and the dynamic athletes in basketball utilize their change of direction skills (i.e., sharp cutting on a dime) just as vigorously as any football player would, observe D-Wade for just a few minutes and you will see this. Just because you perceive (from TV or otherwise) that basketball players aren't really running that hard, let me tell you, at the higher levels basketball is pretty much a continuous sprint back and forth, especially for guards, with much shorter breaks in between than football.You just lost some some credibility with that post. lolBasketball and sprains are nothing like football and sprains. You are hilarious. I played on a sprain with gary payton so CJ should have played too. WOWYes, several. I played hoops at a pretty high level of intensity and competition vs the likes of GP (The Glove), Kidd, Kevin Johnson, and "Hook" Mitchell (local Bay Area playground legend) in my earlier years well past the age of where Chris Johnson is, so yeah, I've experienced a number of high ankle sprains. Lace 'em up tighter and apply some tape over the ankle (and shoe, if needed), and keep on truckin' young fella. Adrenaline works wonders upon first injury. Aside from this, I see the strength of your position and we can part here with a respectful understanding...No prob. But I hope most feel like this with regards to Slaton so I can scoop him up at major discount in all my leagues.
Where do we start?
First of all, have you ever had a severely sprained ankle? Johnson was out of commission for months after the injury occurred.
Secondly, watching the game should have given you an opportunity to see that the Titans offense is dysfunctional without Johnson. He dominated the second best defense (and possibly the most intimating defense in the league) through the first half of the game, and instead you chose to see that Johnson's high ankle sprain makes him a wuss ... despite the fact that he missed zero games due to injury all year. It should have been clear to anyone who watched that game that Chris Johnson was the best player on the field in the first half, and the game turned on his absence ... not b/c he was too weak to take the field, but because he had a debilitating high ankle sprain.
Oh, and I hope Slaton enjoyed watching the game from the sidelines as well. You see, Johnson was a Pro Bowl selection, ROY runner-up, and the best offensive player on a contender. Slaton was at a home thanking Andre Johnson for drawing double teams on an 8-8 team.
Scientifically speaking, there are grades of ankle sprains (I, II, II), and if the grade is the same, then they are similar in severity. One of the most common types for both basketball players and football players is of the "high ankle sprain", whether it be Grade I, II, or III, and these will undoubtedly take longer to heal from as there are additional ligaments above the ankle joint that have been damaged. Either way, every team leader or valuable player would at least give it a try on an injured ankle to see if he could go. Become a decoy, at the least, for a few plays if you can't go any further. From my perspective, I thought the kid didn't even try. And who knows the whole situation, but my only point on this ankle issue was that people are quick to question Slaton's durability but let Johnson slide on by on the same concern.
Why don't you call up some of your famous basketball player friends and have a nice game of 36 this afternoon. See ya.
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