LHUCKS
Footballguy
Nice...only in League 2.Jiggy's comment on his last pick: "No love for Faulk in PPR?"
Nice...only in League 2.Jiggy's comment on his last pick: "No love for Faulk in PPR?"
Well at least he was good value. Finished around top-30 last year in this scoring format. @ hucks. You didn't go to SC for a reason.Jiggy's comment on his last pick: "No love for Faulk in PPR?"
I have covered perhaps close to half the countries in the world by now with my extra curricular travels as well. Working on Europe mostly lately as I joined a European based Blood Bowl league.Bri said:Any guess how many different countries you've met someone from since being in the military?Just pulled an all nighter here talking to a friend in Australia. I'm bushed.
That is some hardcore ADD there jiggy.Well at least he was good value. Finished around top-30 last year in this scoring format. @ hucks. You didn't go to SC for a reason.Jiggy's comment on his last pick: "No love for Faulk in PPR?"
I like to switch things up.That is some hardcore ADD there jiggy.Well at least he was good value. Finished around top-30 last year in this scoring format. @ hucks. You didn't go to SC for a reason.Jiggy's comment on his last pick: "No love for Faulk in PPR?"
the anarchy leagues are 0 PPR for Running back... so....Nice...only in League 2.Jiggy's comment on his last pick: "No love for Faulk in PPR?"
really? that's cool. Always wanted to travel the world what's blood bowl?thought it was a video gameI have covered perhaps close to half the countries in the world by now with my extra curricular travels as well. Working on Europe mostly lately as I joined a European based Blood Bowl league.Bri said:Any guess how many different countries you've met someone from since being in the military?Just pulled an all nighter here talking to a friend in Australia. I'm bushed.
Ya it is a video game and also a board game.Based on a combination of Rugby and Football but players can get killed. I know it is but I have a lot of fun playing it.really? that's cool. Always wanted to travel the world what's blood bowl?thought it was a video gameI have covered perhaps close to half the countries in the world by now with my extra curricular travels as well. Working on Europe mostly lately as I joined a European based Blood Bowl league.Bri said:Any guess how many different countries you've met someone from since being in the military?Just pulled an all nighter here talking to a friend in Australia. I'm bushed.
With my predrafts set up I think I am already done. Just remains to be seen who I actualy end up with.Will do write ups once everything is complete.WTH did everybody go????? Let's get back to Drafting
And Jiggy already knew that from previous seasons so.. I guess he forgot.the anarchy leagues are 0 PPR for Running back... so....Nice...only in League 2.Jiggy's comment on his last pick: "No love for Faulk in PPR?"
probably useful to bump this as we finish upAll teams have to have 2 TMQB, 4 RB, 5 WR, 2 TE, 2 PK, 2 DEF and 1 FLEX (RB/WR/TE). Same as always.So max would be 5 RB -OR- 6 WR -OR- 3 TE.Remind me again..... All players score each week, not just a certain highest per position player or two, correct?You can't have more than RBs or 6 WRs or 3TEs?Its been a couple of years and I can't remember. Looking at the site, the above is what I determined, but it is different, in an interesting and amusing kind of way!
Ya I dunno. Who will he take?I can't believe we have been stuck for 4+ hours in the final round on Pimpin's pick, when (1) he has to take a defense and (2) there is only one defense left.
So, how did the DD predictions (with default projections) hold up? It got 5 positions exactly right and predicted 3 others within 2 spots of their final finish. Only 2 teams finished more than 5 positions off DD's projection. Not bad, considering this did not account for playoff points and was obviously subject to being thrown off by injuries.ETA: When I was posting these DD rankings after our draft, there was some debate as to how accurate its projections might be. I said that I thought it would generally get the top half and bottom half teams right, though not necessarily their actual positions, and I thought if a team was not predicted in the top half it had a slim chance to win.Final update before the season (I assume the current Dodds projections are his final projections):
2857.4 Just Win Baby Predicted 1, Finished 6
2776.1 Biabreakable Predicted 2, Finished 2
2756.4 CalBear Predicted 3, Finished 8
2743.5 Anarchy99 Predicted 4, Finished 13
2719.9 Duckboy Predicted 5, Finished 3
2715.2 radballs Predicted 6, Finished 5
2667.7 Old Milwaukee Predicted 7, Finished 7
2655.5 Fiddles Predicted 8, Finished 4
2642.9 Jiggyonthehut Predicted 9, Finished 11
2610.2 There It Is Predicted 10, Finished 1
2586.3 nittanylion Predicted 11, Finished 14
2581.1 joffer Predicted 12, Finished 12
2565.0 Captain Hook Predicted 13, Finished 9
2499.4 Bri Predicted 14, Finished 10
2416.4 Sinrman Predicted 15, Finished 15
2323.5 Pimpin' Ain't Easy Predicted 16, Finished 16
Well, There It Is was predicted 10th and won... but 7 of the 8 teams DD projected to finish in the top 8 did so. So I think my statements were actually correct. There It Is just made the most of his "slim chance."
I've got skillz. Brady getting hurt moved the bar scoring wise more than any player in the league last year.2743.5 Anarchy99 Predicted 4, Finished 13
I didn't even know where he was in camp. From a Google search: Tampa Bay Buccaneers PK Matt Bryant may have aggravted leg injurySo Bryant will lose his spot in camp....I guess? what's the thinking there?
Sounds like he was already hurt last week, so presumably the DD projections took that into account.Bucs PK Matt Bryant appeared to aggravate a right leg injury on this third and final field goal attempt Tuesday morning. Bryant, who missed several practices last week with a leg strain, grabbed the back of his right leg following his third FG try, reemoved his helmet and left the field. We'll update you later on his condition.
Yeah, I'm not too crazy about this year's team. Predicting me to be 13th is probably about right...Just Win Baby said:Interesting items based on DD's projections:1. radballs has only one player projected to score fewer than 100 points. Every other team has at least 2. At the other extreme, Pimpin' has 6 such players. This presumably explains the disparity in where DD projects those teams to finish.2. DD currently projects these picks with little or no value:Old Milwaukee - John Carney - projected at 0 pointsBiabreakable - Andre Brown - 17.6 pointsPimpin' Ain't Easy - Matt Bryant - 0 pointsThis partly explains why these teams are projected in the bottom 5. Obviously, if circumstances allow, Brown could exceed that projection... but are Carney and Bryant even on rosters at this point?3. Aside from the Team QB position, every team has at least 2 players projected to score more than 200 points except Pimpin' (1) and Bri (0). This partly explains why these teams are projected in the last 2 spots, despite the fact they are projected as the top 2 teams in QB points.4. Pimpin' and Bri are the only two teams to take a Team QB in the first round, and they are projected in the last 2 spots. Sinrman is the only other team to take a Team QB in the first 2 rounds, and he is projected in 13th place. Looks like it's pretty hard to recover from spending early picks on QB.
Re Harrison-I don't think he makes it unless they keep 4. I think it'll be Lewis, Davis and Herron.Re-Toomer, no one knows at this point and the recent depth chart wasn't any help. Last I read they loved his attitude but he was dropping alot of passes yet staying late to work on things.Just Win Baby said:Notable undrafted players, based on DD projections:
Jerome Harrison is the highest projected undrafted RB, and is projected higher than 14 RBs who were drafted.
Toomer is the highest projected undrafted WR, and is projected higher than 14 WRs who were drafted.
David Martin is the highest projected undrafted TE, and is projected higher than 5 TEs who were drafted.
Chris Baker is the starting TE in NE now. Well worth the pick and had I known earlier I would have gobbled him up rounds and rounds ago (but couldn't).I wouldn't worry about what the projections are for some of these guys, as some will be way off.Re Harrison-I don't think he makes it unless they keep 4. I think it'll be Lewis, Davis and Herron.Re-Toomer, no one knows at this point and the recent depth chart wasn't any help. Last I read they loved his attitude but he was dropping alot of passes yet staying late to work on things.Just Win Baby said:Notable undrafted players, based on DD projections:
Jerome Harrison is the highest projected undrafted RB, and is projected higher than 14 RBs who were drafted.
Toomer is the highest projected undrafted WR, and is projected higher than 14 WRs who were drafted.
David Martin is the highest projected undrafted TE, and is projected higher than 5 TEs who were drafted.
The 2nd TE can be tricky. Although we can debate if Fasano or Martin is 2nd. I like Rucker(undrafted) and Cottam. Assuming I can count, there's 30 TEs better than 300 yards receiving, the rest are under 300 for the year last season. That's not even 20 yards per game. When the pickings are real slim at TE, I'd rather just take a chance.
I thought nittanylion's Chris Baker pick was a chance, and well worth the try. Is he projected to have less than D. Martin?
Here is where you rank by position, according to these DD projections:QB - 2Thanks for the DD predictions JWB. I don't see how I'm last, but I imagine anyone would say the same. We'll see...
Wow... I can't imagine a scenario other than catastrophic injury in which Harrison doesn't make the team and have a solid role.Re Harrison-I don't think he makes it unless they keep 4. I think it'll be Lewis, Davis and Herron.
nope hes screwedHere is where you rank by position, according to these DD projections:QB - 2Thanks for the DD predictions JWB. I don't see how I'm last, but I imagine anyone would say the same. We'll see...
RB - 6
WR - 16
TE - 14
K - 13
D - T-13
That doesn't really look too good, and that's not it. The flex can make these numbers a bit misleading:
You are only of only 3 teams with 5 RBs, so that probably inflates your RB rank.
4 teams have 3 TEs, but your 2 TEs would rank behind all of those teams' top 2 TEs in these projections, so that isn't affecting your ranking there.
And 9 teams have 6 WRs... but you rank last among all teams, so I don't think that is skewing your ranking there.
These are just Dodds' projections, and without postseason points, so obviously things could turn out a lot differently.
QB-2 I would figure that's gotta be a one.Sinrman and PAE are very strong but I disagree on that not being a one.Here is where you rank by position, according to these DD projections:QB - 2Thanks for the DD predictions JWB. I don't see how I'm last, but I imagine anyone would say the same. We'll see...
RB - 6
WR - 16
TE - 14
K - 13
D - T-13
That doesn't really look too good, and that's not it. The flex can make these numbers a bit misleading:
You are only of only 3 teams with 5 RBs, so that probably inflates your RB rank.
4 teams have 3 TEs, but your 2 TEs would rank behind all of those teams' top 2 TEs in these projections, so that isn't affecting your ranking there.
And 9 teams have 6 WRs... but you rank last among all teams, so I don't think that is skewing your ranking there.
These are just Dodds' projections, and without postseason points, so obviously things could turn out a lot differently.
Per Dodds' current projections, the New England and Dallas Team QBs (598.8 projected fantasy points) are better than the New Orleans and Arizona Team QBs (596.5).QB-2 I would figure that's gotta be a one.Sinrman and PAE are very strong but I disagree on that not being a one.Here is where you rank by position, according to these DD projections:QB - 2Thanks for the DD predictions JWB. I don't see how I'm last, but I imagine anyone would say the same. We'll see...
RB - 6
WR - 16
TE - 14
K - 13
D - T-13
That doesn't really look too good, and that's not it. The flex can make these numbers a bit misleading:
You are only of only 3 teams with 5 RBs, so that probably inflates your RB rank.
4 teams have 3 TEs, but your 2 TEs would rank behind all of those teams' top 2 TEs in these projections, so that isn't affecting your ranking there.
And 9 teams have 6 WRs... but you rank last among all teams, so I don't think that is skewing your ranking there.
These are just Dodds' projections, and without postseason points, so obviously things could turn out a lot differently.
Will have to look at more details later. Thanks for the info
well...I guess I just disagree on that one. IIRC Dodds loves Brady this year. Who doesn't?It's Romo/Dal Team QB that I'd have an issue with here. Warner(Arizona Team QB) had 163 more points than Romo last year. Witten was awesome and TO is better than Roy. Without the playoffs(and Arizona has a far easier division) it gets closer but it's still a 50 point lead or so.Per Dodds' current projections, the New England and Dallas Team QBs (598.8 projected fantasy points) are better than the New Orleans and Arizona Team QBs (596.5).
I agreeChris Baker is the starting TE in NE now. Well worth the pick and had I known earlier I would have gobbled him up rounds and rounds ago (but couldn't).
OK, like I said, these are just Dodds' projections and could turn out differently. I suspect the bigger issue is your positions other than QB... Good luck.well...I guess I just disagree on that one. IIRC Dodds loves Brady this year. Who doesn't?It's Romo/Dal Team QB that I'd have an issue with here. Warner(Arizona Team QB) had 163 more points than Romo last year. Witten was awesome and TO is better than Roy. Without the playoffs(and Arizona has a far easier division) it gets closer but it's still a 50 point lead or so.Per Dodds' current projections, the New England and Dallas Team QBs (598.8 projected fantasy points) are better than the New Orleans and Arizona Team QBs (596.5).
While this is very interesting IIRC I was pretty dang low according to Dodds list in the early going. Then as things got closer to the season starting Dodds projections changed ranking me a lot higher than I was early on.And I think for wrong reasons. Chris Perry was a late penciled in starter that I had gambled on. That didnt work out so good. Without that and I am guessing a few other players (who actualy did do well) are what caused Dodds rankings for my draft to be higher late in the season when it was not earlier.FWIW, here is the Draft Dominator's view of the teams, based on latest projections (DD says 8/10 projections, but I updated them this morning and they changed slightly):
2903.2 Just Win Baby
2881.8 radballs
2833.5 Duckboy
2829.9 Anarchy99
2711.1 CalBear
2697.3 Fiddles
2695.1 There It Is
2682.1 Jiggyonthehut
2680.9 rzrback77
2591.2 nittanylion
2586.5 Captain Hook
2549.5 Biabreakable
2546.2 Sinrman
2487.6 Old Milwaukee
2454.2 Pimpin' Ain't Easy
2422.2 Bri
Caveats:
I made no attempt to change projections from the defaults. Obviously many people will have different projections and thus will feel differently than what is shown by these numbers.
DD does not factor in NFL playoff games, and thus those points are not accounted for.
We use Team QBs, so I added 3 rounds to the draft in order to add all backup QBs listed in DD. So all teams have 4-5 individual QBs. This seems to be the best way to represent team QBs in DD. (I could have modified the projections by hand to give all of each team’s projected fantasy points to its starter, but that would have prevented updating projections without more manual conversions.)Despite the issues cited above, I think this is as good as any other quick view of the results. Injuries will obviously be the biggest factor, but this has done a decent job in past years of assessing the results in Anarchy drafts. On that subject, here is a recap from last season:
So, how did the DD predictions (with default projections) hold up? It got 5 positions exactly right and predicted 3 others within 2 spots of their final finish. Only 2 teams finished more than 5 positions off DD's projection. Not bad, considering this did not account for playoff points and was obviously subject to being thrown off by injuries.ETA: When I was posting these DD rankings after our draft, there was some debate as to how accurate its projections might be. I said that I thought it would generally get the top half and bottom half teams right, though not necessarily their actual positions, and I thought if a team was not predicted in the top half it had a slim chance to win.Final update before the season (I assume the current Dodds projections are his final projections):
2857.4 Just Win Baby Predicted 1, Finished 6
2776.1 Biabreakable Predicted 2, Finished 2
2756.4 CalBear Predicted 3, Finished 8
2743.5 Anarchy99 Predicted 4, Finished 13
2719.9 Duckboy Predicted 5, Finished 3
2715.2 radballs Predicted 6, Finished 5
2667.7 Old Milwaukee Predicted 7, Finished 7
2655.5 Fiddles Predicted 8, Finished 4
2642.9 Jiggyonthehut Predicted 9, Finished 11
2610.2 There It Is Predicted 10, Finished 1
2586.3 nittanylion Predicted 11, Finished 14
2581.1 joffer Predicted 12, Finished 12
2565.0 Captain Hook Predicted 13, Finished 9
2499.4 Bri Predicted 14, Finished 10
2416.4 Sinrman Predicted 15, Finished 15
2323.5 Pimpin' Ain't Easy Predicted 16, Finished 16
Well, There It Is was predicted 10th and won... but 7 of the 8 teams DD projected to finish in the top 8 did so. So I think my statements were actually correct. There It Is just made the most of his "slim chance."
Even when Watson was starting he only had 30 receptions twice in 5 seasons.11.09 169. Watson, Ben NEP TE Wed - So I hear you guys talking about Baker. I might have really messed this one up. If he can even split time and get 30 catches I will be happy though. Playoffs a near lock. Not that it will help if he isn't starting.
After a little cereal, came back and re-looked at the rosters and...I don't think there's a probably here. My WRs are the worstAll in all, my WRs probably are the worst in the league
I looked back at last year's thread, and you were initially projected 10th and ultimately moved up to 2nd in the final projections. I don't recall what the reason was (i.e., which players of yours jumped up in the projections).So obviously a lot can change between now and the start of the season. I would tend to think that kind of move would be somewhat unusual. We'll see.While this is very interesting IIRC I was pretty dang low according to Dodds list in the early going. Then as things got closer to the season starting Dodds projections changed ranking me a lot higher than I was early on.And I think for wrong reasons. Chris Perry was a late penciled in starter that I had gambled on. That didnt work out so good. Without that and I am guessing a few other players (who actualy did do well) are what caused Dodds rankings for my draft to be higher late in the season when it was not earlier.Right?
When you do your writeups, I'd be interested to know which teams you think followed the herd. I don't think there are necessarily any teams following a herd approach in this group and with this format.You seem to be saying that you think if your team ranked high in the projections it would imply herd mentality... which would lead to a mediocre result... but that's not what happened last year to your team or to any other team that was projected high. David's was the only one to fall significantly, and he had Brady.I think you guys know by now in total points I play high risk. 2nd place is not my goal my goal is to win. And to do that amoungst this group of drafters I have to land some guys no one is keen on to make the difference for me.Following the herd will lead to mediocre. So I am glad I am not too high here. If I were I would be drafting what everyone else is drafting. That aint going to win. If the risks I take don't pan out and I end up the bottom team? Oh well. Not really any different than 2nd to me.
Yeah this might be my biggest mistake made.Even when Watson was starting he only had 30 receptions twice in 5 seasons.11.09 169. Watson, Ben NEP TE Wed - So I hear you guys talking about Baker. I might have really messed this one up. If he can even split time and get 30 catches I will be happy though. Playoffs a near lock. Not that it will help if he isn't starting.
Ok let me try to exaplain a little better what I mean by this. And it is a double edged sword.Guys like Dodds and many of us here are always reading and going back and forth on little tidbits of news. How one minor injury, a personel move ect. might change projections for the players it has an effect on. And to be honest a guy like me who does most of my own research on my own and does not read very much on expert opinion.. althought I might read the same news and come to the same conclusion.. sometimes I don't. And sometimes I missed that tidbit of information all together. So really it is hard for a guy like me to compete with the collective knowledge of the twitering FF community. However the advantage I do have is that I am not getting caught up in the group think that is unavoidable due to so often comparing of the same notes with the same group of people. Knowledgable and respected as they deserve to be.Example here Baker and team plans of what they are going to do with Ben Watson. I knew Baker had been signed as free agent. But honestly I don't think a great deal of him as a player in FF. So I was making a decision based off this impression.. and also thinking that Watson still had a starting role with the team and the team was commited to him as the starter. Even though he has really struggled and not lived up to expectations. And to be honest.. the Pats not being a team that I read about frequently. But I respect due to thier high probablility of making the playoffs, which is valuable in this league.I very rarely read FBG articles or look at thier rankings. And other sites even less than that. And not because there is not good and interesting information there. But just because I like to do it myself. I did read Cappybaras life of a stud article. Because I love his work a lot. But most of it? Not at all. This is just a decision I made many years ago. It makes my enjoyment of this hobby that we share more enjoyable to me doing things my way.So it is not my intention really to take shots at Dodds or any of us here who are more plugged in to this collective information than I am. And my previous comments may have come across that way. But that being said doing things my way has also been successful. And that is just that much sweeter to me when it is. Because I know I did it mostly by myself.I have not been looking at any ADP using draft dominator ect. ect.Not that these are not useful tools. They are. But I am drafting based off of what I think is best. Not what everyone else agrees with.So I hope that makes sense. Now I will get back into smack talk mode.When you do your writeups, I'd be interested to know which teams you think followed the herd. I don't think there are necessarily any teams following a herd approach in this group and with this format.You seem to be saying that you think if your team ranked high in the projections it would imply herd mentality... which would lead to a mediocre result... but that's not what happened last year to your team or to any other team that was projected high. David's was the only one to fall significantly, and he had Brady.Following the herd will lead to mediocre. So I am glad I am not too high here. If I were I would be drafting what everyone else is drafting. That aint going to win. If the risks I take don't pan out and I end up the bottom team? Oh well. Not really any different than 2nd to me.
I would say write up however you think is best.When I do write ups for all the teams it will be by position moreso than draft order. That will lead back to talk about draft decisions that were made. Both have merit.And not my favorite way to write up the team but going by draft picks so we have some uniformity