Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

David Yudkin

2009 Anarchy League 2 Thread

Recommended Posts

Jiggy's comment on his last pick: "No love for Faulk in PPR?":lmao:

Nice...only in League 2.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jiggy's comment on his last pick: "No love for Faulk in PPR?":rolleyes:

:yes:Well at least he was good value. Finished around top-30 last year in this scoring format. :lmao: @ hucks. You didn't go to SC for a reason.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just pulled an all nighter here talking to a friend in Australia. I'm bushed.

Any guess how many different countries you've met someone from since being in the military?
I have covered perhaps close to half the countries in the world by now with my extra curricular travels as well. Working on Europe mostly lately as I joined a European based Blood Bowl league.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jiggy's comment on his last pick: "No love for Faulk in PPR?":goodposting:

:bag:Well at least he was good value. Finished around top-30 last year in this scoring format. :goodposting: @ hucks. You didn't go to SC for a reason.
That is some hardcore ADD there jiggy. :goodposting:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jiggy's comment on his last pick: "No love for Faulk in PPR?":mellow:

:bag:Well at least he was good value. Finished around top-30 last year in this scoring format. :lmao: @ hucks. You didn't go to SC for a reason.
That is some hardcore ADD there jiggy. :goodposting:
I like to switch things up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jiggy's comment on his last pick: "No love for Faulk in PPR?" :goodposting:

Nice...only in League 2.
the anarchy leagues are 0 PPR for Running back... so....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just pulled an all nighter here talking to a friend in Australia. I'm bushed.

Any guess how many different countries you've met someone from since being in the military?
I have covered perhaps close to half the countries in the world by now with my extra curricular travels as well. Working on Europe mostly lately as I joined a European based Blood Bowl league.
really? that's cool. Always wanted to travel the world what's blood bowl?thought it was a video game

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just pulled an all nighter here talking to a friend in Australia. I'm bushed.

Any guess how many different countries you've met someone from since being in the military?
I have covered perhaps close to half the countries in the world by now with my extra curricular travels as well. Working on Europe mostly lately as I joined a European based Blood Bowl league.
really? that's cool. Always wanted to travel the world what's blood bowl?thought it was a video game
Ya it is a video game and also a board game.Based on a combination of Rugby and Football but players can get killed. I know it is :shrug: but I have a lot of fun playing it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WTH did everybody go????? :unsure: Let's get back to Drafting :lmao:

With my predrafts set up I think I am already done. Just remains to be seen who I actualy end up with.Will do write ups once everything is complete.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jiggy's comment on his last pick: "No love for Faulk in PPR?" :lmao:

Nice...only in League 2.
the anarchy leagues are 0 PPR for Running back... so....
And Jiggy already knew that from previous seasons so.. I guess he forgot.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Remind me again..... All players score each week, not just a certain highest per position player or two, correct?You can't have more than RBs or 6 WRs or 3TEs?Its been a couple of years and I can't remember. Looking at the site, the above is what I determined, but it is different, in an interesting and amusing kind of way!

All teams have to have 2 TMQB, 4 RB, 5 WR, 2 TE, 2 PK, 2 DEF and 1 FLEX (RB/WR/TE). Same as always.So max would be 5 RB -OR- 6 WR -OR- 3 TE.
probably useful to bump this as we finish up

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

MFL got confused at my pre-draft; I need a defense in round 18 (can't take Edge on the roster); give me Denver instead.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can't believe we have been stuck for 4+ hours in the final round on Pimpin's pick, when (1) he has to take a defense and (2) there is only one defense left.

David, can you just give him St. Louis so we can move on? We've waited for more than 12 hours on Pimpin' today, so he might be out of town or something...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can't believe we have been stuck for 4+ hours in the final round on Pimpin's pick, when (1) he has to take a defense and (2) there is only one defense left.

Ya I dunno. Who will he take? :sadbanana:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FWIW, here is the Draft Dominator's view of the teams, based on latest projections (DD says 8/10 projections, but I updated them this morning and they changed slightly):

2903.2 Just Win Baby

2881.8 radballs

2833.5 Duckboy

2829.9 Anarchy99

2711.1 CalBear

2697.3 Fiddles

2695.1 There It Is

2682.1 Jiggyonthehut

2680.9 rzrback77

2591.2 nittanylion

2586.5 Captain Hook

2549.5 Biabreakable

2546.2 Sinrman

2487.6 Old Milwaukee

2454.2 Pimpin' Ain't Easy

2422.2 Bri

Caveats:

I made no attempt to change projections from the defaults. Obviously many people will have different projections and thus will feel differently than what is shown by these numbers.

DD does not factor in NFL playoff games, and thus those points are not accounted for.

We use Team QBs, so I added 3 rounds to the draft in order to add all backup QBs listed in DD. So all teams have 4-5 individual QBs. This seems to be the best way to represent team QBs in DD. (I could have modified the projections by hand to give all of each team’s projected fantasy points to its starter, but that would have prevented updating projections without more manual conversions.)

Despite the issues cited above, I think this is as good as any other quick view of the results. Injuries will obviously be the biggest factor, but this has done a decent job in past years of assessing the results in Anarchy drafts. On that subject, here is a recap from last season:

Final update before the season (I assume the current Dodds projections are his final projections):

2857.4 Just Win Baby Predicted 1, Finished 6

2776.1 Biabreakable Predicted 2, Finished 2

2756.4 CalBear Predicted 3, Finished 8

2743.5 Anarchy99 Predicted 4, Finished 13

2719.9 Duckboy Predicted 5, Finished 3

2715.2 radballs Predicted 6, Finished 5

2667.7 Old Milwaukee Predicted 7, Finished 7

2655.5 Fiddles Predicted 8, Finished 4

2642.9 Jiggyonthehut Predicted 9, Finished 11

2610.2 There It Is Predicted 10, Finished 1

2586.3 nittanylion Predicted 11, Finished 14

2581.1 joffer Predicted 12, Finished 12

2565.0 Captain Hook Predicted 13, Finished 9

2499.4 Bri Predicted 14, Finished 10

2416.4 Sinrman Predicted 15, Finished 15

2323.5 Pimpin' Ain't Easy Predicted 16, Finished 16

So, how did the DD predictions (with default projections) hold up? It got 5 positions exactly right and predicted 3 others within 2 spots of their final finish. Only 2 teams finished more than 5 positions off DD's projection. Not bad, considering this did not account for playoff points and was obviously subject to being thrown off by injuries.

ETA: When I was posting these DD rankings after our draft, there was some debate as to how accurate its projections might be. I said that I thought it would generally get the top half and bottom half teams right, though not necessarily their actual positions, and I thought if a team was not predicted in the top half it had a slim chance to win.

Well, There It Is was predicted 10th and won... but 7 of the 8 teams DD projected to finish in the top 8 did so. So I think my statements were actually correct. There It Is just made the most of his "slim chance."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Now I'll comment on my team.

1.3 Larry Fitzgerald. Nobrainer pick. Last season, he was the #2 overall scorer, with a huge edge on the #3. Although I certainly can’t count on him to get 4 playoff games again this year, there is no reason to think he will not again be an elite player in this format. Good chance he’ll be in the playoffs. I considered him the #1 player in the draft, so I was pleased to get him.

2.14 Roddy White. 10th WR taken and 30th player taken overall. Last season, he was the #4 WR and #16 overall scorer. Gonzalez’s arrival could reduce his opportunities, but that could be offset by Ryan improving in his second year and Atlanta throwing more due to a tough schedule. And Douglas’s injury won’t hurt. Good chance he’ll be in the playoffs. All in all, he looks like good value here. All that said, I really liked White, Bowe, Cooley, and Olsen best at this point, and wanted two of them between this pick and my 3.3 pick, but the rest all went before my next pick. Had I taken Olsen here, it’s possible White would have made it to 3.3, not sure. Still, in retrospect, I’m happy with how it turned out.

3.3 Clinton Portis. 11th RB taken, which I found a bit surprising. He finished as the #10 scoring RB last year, though, so this draft position is in line with that. One thing I really like about taking him here is that he seems like a safe pick, given his consistent track record. Plus, I think Washington’s offense should be a bit better this year in its second year under Zorn… and its defense should also be better, which could lead to a bit more running. Though it seems he has been around forever, Portis is 28, so age is not a concern. Playoff points are possible, but not likely.

4.14 Zach Miller. 10th TE taken. I was very nervous he wasn’t going to make it to me at this spot. He was the #9 TE in this format last season, despite only catching 1 TD, so there is strong potential for him to outperform his draft position. He and Russell really built some good chemistry in the second half of last season, when Miller had 34/457/0 (113.7 points in this format), compared to 22/321/1 in the first half (82.1 points in this format). Miller is entering his third year and there has been talk that the Raiders will try to get the ball to him downfield a bit more this year. Obviously there will be no playoff points, but he is excellent value here IMO.

5.3 Dustin Keller. 11th TE taken. He was the #13 TE last season as a rookie. In addition to normal improvement in his second year, he should get a good deal more targets given the departures of Coles and Chris Baker, who combined for 146 targets last year, with no quality replacements brought in to replace them. It is said that rookie QBs often lean on their TEs, so that is another possibility if Sanchez ends up starting, particularly since Cotchery is likely the Jets receiving threat who will draw the most defensive attention. I think having two top 10-12 TEs is a big advantage in this format, with 2 PPR for TEs, so it was my goal entering the draft to get two of them, if possible. Getting Miller and Keller at the 4/5 turn made up for not getting Olsen or Cooley at the previous turn, and, in fact, it worked out better since it enabled me to get Portis. No playoff points here.

6.14 Domenik Hixon. 35th WR taken. I took Hixon because I expect him to be the Giants’ best fantasy WR this year. He had 52 targets for 28/351/1 in the Giants’ last 6 regular season games last year, after Burress was hurt in week 12. He also started in place of Burress in week 5, and had 4/102/1. The potential is there for him to catch 60+ passes this year, and as the deep threat, that would probably mean 5+ TDs. Not bad value here, and he has a good chance at playoff points. The only real issue is whether or not he can hold off Nicks, and I think he will do that this year, given his edge in experience and his production last year when called upon. I considered taking Stewart here but gambled that he’d make it back to me in the 7th.

7.3 Jonathan Stewart. 33rd RB taken. Finished as the #24 RB last season, despite splitting time and playing through multiple injuries. Of course, he will split time again, and he has an injury history, so he could face those same issues again this year. And there could certainly be some regression in the Carolina running game this year, although they still have a great run blocking line and a run first and often mentality. Getting him at this spot means he should be good value even if he regresses a bit. Repeating or exceeding last year’s numbers are a strong possibility, which will make him a great value… and if Williams were to miss time for any reason, he could explode. Good chance at playoff points.

8.14 Kansas City Chiefs Team QB. 19th Team QB taken and 126th player(s) taken overall. Finished as #9 Team QB and #13 overall scorer last season. KC has a new coach and a new starting QB and Gonzalez is gone… and there will not likely be any playoff points here. On the other hand, the WRs should be better overall and the new coach and QB were associated with prolific passing offenses last season. Seems like outstanding value here IMO.

9.3 Baltimore Ravens Team Defense. 4th Team Defense taken. Finished as #2 Team Defense last year and #23 overall scorer. That was with 3 playoff games, but even without the playoff games, they would have been the #3 defense and top 50 overall. They lost Bart Scott and Chris McAlister, but, as the FBG outlook says, overall the Ravens defense “added some young talent and lost very little.” Good chance at playoff points here.

10.14 Green Bay Packers Team Defense. 12th Team Defense taken. Finished as #13 Team Defense last year. But they added Capers, Raji, and Matthews Jr. And last season, starters Atari Bigby, Nick Barnett, and Al Harris missed 9, 7, and 4 games, respectively, so they could have better health this year. All in all, I expect them to be a top 10 defense in this format. Playoff points are possible. After my 9th round pick, I was considering taking my second Team QB at this spot, but 6 of them went between the picks, and I just didn’t think the value was there.

11.3 Jerious Norwood. 45th RB taken. Finished as #39 RB last year. No reason to believe his role will be reduced this year, and, in fact, it could be expanded… the Falcons play a significantly more difficult schedule this season, and thus could be playing from behind more. That could mean a minor shift from Turner to Norwood, given Turner’s complete lack of involvement in the passing game. Good chance he’ll be in the playoffs.

12.14 Stephen Gostkowski. 1st K taken. Finished as #4 K last season, but that was with no playoff games. With Brady back, he has the strongest chance to finish as top kicker IMO, and playoff points are very likely. I didn’t like the options at other positions much, and thus decided to take top points at kicker. I think in this format, kickers tend to be underrated.

13.3 Nate Kaeding. 2nd K taken. Only finished as #13 K last season, but obviously I expect he’ll be much better this year. I think he has a great chance at multiple playoff games, which is a big factor. I’m sure many will feel I took my kickers too early, but I locked up two guys likely to be top 5 at the position and are both likely to get playoff points. I also ensured I would not be stuck with a kicker who loses his job in preseason, something that will likely affect a few teams. And IMO I did not sacrifice much value given what else I needed at this point.

14.14 L.J. Smith. 33rd TE taken. Took him as my flex player. If he catches 30 passes, he’ll justify this position with around 100 points… if not, this probably won’t turn out to be a good pick. Heap hasn’t been one to stay healthy consistently, and Smith could be a great value if Heap gets hurt (and Smith stays healthy). The team signed Smith and drafted a TE in the 5th round, so it seems they aren’t fully confident in Heap. Good chance at playoff points.

15.3 Sammy Morris. 59th RB taken. Finished as #34 RB last year. But the Pats added Taylor, and Maroney could be healthy this year. Still, Belichick seems to like Morris a lot. Even if he doesn’t get a lot of carries, he could get goal line work, which could give him decent value since New England should be in the red zone a lot. At this point (59th RB), I’m hoping for 50+ points, and Morris seems a reasonably safe bet to deliver that, with some upside. Taylor is old and Maroney has never been able to stay healthy and out of the doghouse, so there is at least some chance that Morris could get a shot at some point to get a significant role in the offense. Our own Mr. Yudkin, a resident Patriots expert, projects him for 685/9, which is 122.5 points in this format. I strongly considered Brandon Jackson here, but I am a bigger believer in Grant than many around here, and decided I like Morris’s upside better. Plus, Morris has a stronger chance at playoff points.

16.14 Keenan Burton. 79th WR taken. He was already in the running for St. Louis’s WR2 role, competing with Laurent Robinson. Now, it appears Avery will be out 4-6 weeks, meaning he could miss multiple games, and FBG reports that Burton is getting Avery’s first team reps. Presumably, this means Burton will get at least a couple of starts, and he could still win the WR2 position when Avery returns. Even if he settles at WR3, he should get plenty of opportunities. Rams WRs collectively totaled 462 fantasy points in this format last year, and that was in one of the worst few passing offenses in the league. Even if the offense doesn’t improve, Burton should easily reach 100 fantasy points this year, with good potential for more if he beats out Robinson or Avery’s injury lingers. Obviously, no playoff points, but very good value here IMO. Very seriously considered taking the Titans Team QB here, given that David was at the turn and needed 2 Team QBs, but I gambled they would make it back to my next pick.

17.3 Tennessee Titans Team QB. 29th Team QB taken. Finished as #28 Team QB last year, and they have potentially improved with the additions of Washington and Britt. And in theory Vince Young may be ready to contribute this year if called upon. I didn’t see much separation between the 7 Team QBs that remained as of my 10th round pick, but the Titans looked like the only one of those teams with a good shot at the playoffs, so I decided as of then that I wanted to take the Titans. I’m pretty pleased that I was able to hold off until the 17th round to do it. I had to pull the trigger here, because by my next pick there would only have been 2 Team QBs remaining, and there could still be a significant dropoff between the Titans and the last couple of Team QBs – last year, the Titans at #28 outscored the #32 Browns by 55 points.

18.14 Demetrius Williams. 89th WR taken. Entering the second year in the team’s offense and Flacco’s second year in the league, it seems reasonable that the team may look deep a bit more often this year, and Williams could be the beneficiary. Now, Mark Clayton has a hamstring injury that should keep him out of preseason and possibly a regular season game or two… and that’s if it doesn’t linger and he doesn’t reinjure it. This could create opportunity for Williams to get into the starting lineup and prove himself. Looking for 100 points here in the regular season, along with possible playoff points. Pretty good value at the end of the draft.

Per my previous post, DD shows my team as the top team right now. Of course, that comes with the caveats noted in that post, so it is likely there are some better teams. The main key for this team (like every other in this format) is staying healthy. One thing that could help is that this team has only a few players older than 28 – Smith at 29, Morris at 32, and Collins at 37.

In retrospect, the picks I like the least in my draft are Hixon and Smith, and I probably jumped on kickers a round early. Still, I think I got pretty consistent value with my picks.

I feel comfortable this team can contend. And I think my team is likely to have several players make the playoffs, which should help.

:bag:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2743.5 Anarchy99 Predicted 4, Finished 13

I've got skillz. Brady getting hurt moved the bar scoring wise more than any player in the league last year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting items based on DD's projections:

1. radballs has only one player projected to score fewer than 100 points. Every other team has at least 2. At the other extreme, Pimpin' has 6 such players. This presumably explains the disparity in where DD projects those teams to finish.

2. DD currently projects these picks with little or no value:

Old Milwaukee - John Carney - projected at 0 points

Biabreakable - Andre Brown - 17.6 points

Pimpin' Ain't Easy - Matt Bryant - 0 points

This partly explains why these teams are projected in the bottom 5. Obviously, if circumstances allow, Brown could exceed that projection... but are Carney and Bryant even on rosters at this point?

3. Aside from the Team QB position, every team has at least 2 players projected to score more than 200 points except Pimpin' (1) and Bri (0). This partly explains why these teams are projected in the last 2 spots, despite the fact they are projected as the top 2 teams in QB points.

4. Pimpin' and Bri are the only two teams to take a Team QB in the first round, and they are projected in the last 2 spots. Sinrman is the only other team to take a Team QB in the first 2 rounds, and he is projected in 13th place. Looks like it's pretty hard to recover from spending early picks on QB.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Notable undrafted players, based on DD projections:

Jerome Harrison is the highest projected undrafted RB, and is projected higher than 14 RBs who were drafted.

Toomer is the highest projected undrafted WR, and is projected higher than 14 WRs who were drafted.

David Martin is the highest projected undrafted TE, and is projected higher than 5 TEs who were drafted.

No one took a kicker from KC or Seattle. DD shows those players as Mare and Succop, who are projected to score 101.8 and 93.9 points, respectively. Meanwhile Carney and Bryant were drafted and are projected at 0 points.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So Bryant will lose his spot in camp....I guess? what's the thinking there?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for the DD predictions JWB. I don't see how I'm last, but I imagine anyone would say the same. We'll see...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So Bryant will lose his spot in camp....I guess? what's the thinking there?

I didn't even know where he was in camp. From a Google search: Tampa Bay Buccaneers PK Matt Bryant may have aggravted leg injury

Bucs PK Matt Bryant appeared to aggravate a right leg injury on this third and final field goal attempt Tuesday morning. Bryant, who missed several practices last week with a leg strain, grabbed the back of his right leg following his third FG try, reemoved his helmet and left the field. We'll update you later on his condition.

Sounds like he was already hurt last week, so presumably the DD projections took that into account.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting items based on DD's projections:1. radballs has only one player projected to score fewer than 100 points. Every other team has at least 2. At the other extreme, Pimpin' has 6 such players. This presumably explains the disparity in where DD projects those teams to finish.2. DD currently projects these picks with little or no value:Old Milwaukee - John Carney - projected at 0 pointsBiabreakable - Andre Brown - 17.6 pointsPimpin' Ain't Easy - Matt Bryant - 0 pointsThis partly explains why these teams are projected in the bottom 5. Obviously, if circumstances allow, Brown could exceed that projection... but are Carney and Bryant even on rosters at this point?3. Aside from the Team QB position, every team has at least 2 players projected to score more than 200 points except Pimpin' (1) and Bri (0). This partly explains why these teams are projected in the last 2 spots, despite the fact they are projected as the top 2 teams in QB points.4. Pimpin' and Bri are the only two teams to take a Team QB in the first round, and they are projected in the last 2 spots. Sinrman is the only other team to take a Team QB in the first 2 rounds, and he is projected in 13th place. Looks like it's pretty hard to recover from spending early picks on QB.

Yeah, I'm not too crazy about this year's team. Predicting me to be 13th is probably about right... :shrug:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Notable undrafted players, based on DD projections:

Jerome Harrison is the highest projected undrafted RB, and is projected higher than 14 RBs who were drafted.

Toomer is the highest projected undrafted WR, and is projected higher than 14 WRs who were drafted.

David Martin is the highest projected undrafted TE, and is projected higher than 5 TEs who were drafted.

Re Harrison-I don't think he makes it unless they keep 4. I think it'll be Lewis, Davis and Herron.

Re-Toomer, no one knows at this point and the recent depth chart wasn't any help. Last I read they loved his attitude but he was dropping alot of passes yet staying late to work on things.

The 2nd TE can be tricky. Although we can debate if Fasano or Martin is 2nd. I like Rucker(undrafted) and Cottam. Assuming I can count, there's 30 TEs better than 300 yards receiving, the rest are under 300 for the year last season. That's not even 20 yards per game. When the pickings are real slim at TE, I'd rather just take a chance.

I thought nittanylion's Chris Baker pick was a chance, and well worth the try. Is he projected to have less than D. Martin?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Notable undrafted players, based on DD projections:

Jerome Harrison is the highest projected undrafted RB, and is projected higher than 14 RBs who were drafted.

Toomer is the highest projected undrafted WR, and is projected higher than 14 WRs who were drafted.

David Martin is the highest projected undrafted TE, and is projected higher than 5 TEs who were drafted.

Re Harrison-I don't think he makes it unless they keep 4. I think it'll be Lewis, Davis and Herron.

Re-Toomer, no one knows at this point and the recent depth chart wasn't any help. Last I read they loved his attitude but he was dropping alot of passes yet staying late to work on things.

The 2nd TE can be tricky. Although we can debate if Fasano or Martin is 2nd. I like Rucker(undrafted) and Cottam. Assuming I can count, there's 30 TEs better than 300 yards receiving, the rest are under 300 for the year last season. That's not even 20 yards per game. When the pickings are real slim at TE, I'd rather just take a chance.

I thought nittanylion's Chris Baker pick was a chance, and well worth the try. Is he projected to have less than D. Martin?

Chris Baker is the starting TE in NE now. Well worth the pick and had I known earlier I would have gobbled him up rounds and rounds ago (but couldn't).

I wouldn't worry about what the projections are for some of these guys, as some will be way off.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for the DD predictions JWB. I don't see how I'm last, but I imagine anyone would say the same. We'll see...

Here is where you rank by position, according to these DD projections:

QB - 2

RB - 6

WR - 16

TE - 14

K - 13

D - T-13

That doesn't really look too good, and that's not it. The flex can make these numbers a bit misleading:

You are only of only 3 teams with 5 RBs, so that probably inflates your RB rank.

4 teams have 3 TEs, but your 2 TEs would rank behind all of those teams' top 2 TEs in these projections, so that isn't affecting your ranking there.

And 9 teams have 6 WRs... but you rank last among all teams, so I don't think that is skewing your ranking there.

:goodposting:

These are just Dodds' projections, and without postseason points, so obviously things could turn out a lot differently.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Re Harrison-I don't think he makes it unless they keep 4. I think it'll be Lewis, Davis and Herron.

Wow... I can't imagine a scenario other than catastrophic injury in which Harrison doesn't make the team and have a solid role.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for the DD predictions JWB. I don't see how I'm last, but I imagine anyone would say the same. We'll see...

Here is where you rank by position, according to these DD projections:

QB - 2

RB - 6

WR - 16

TE - 14

K - 13

D - T-13

That doesn't really look too good, and that's not it. The flex can make these numbers a bit misleading:

You are only of only 3 teams with 5 RBs, so that probably inflates your RB rank.

4 teams have 3 TEs, but your 2 TEs would rank behind all of those teams' top 2 TEs in these projections, so that isn't affecting your ranking there.

And 9 teams have 6 WRs... but you rank last among all teams, so I don't think that is skewing your ranking there.

:goodposting:

These are just Dodds' projections, and without postseason points, so obviously things could turn out a lot differently.

nope hes screwed

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's my own analysis: I should have time to do a team by team analysis this year.

Overall, I was pleased with my draft. I have Tomlinson projected higher than most do, so I felt he was a great consolation prize for missing out on Gonzalez in the late first round. Steve Smith could easily be a top-3 WR (if this injury isn't serious), and I don't have any real weaknesses, outside of DST which is pretty much a crap shoot anyway.

1.13 Ladanian Tomlinson, RB SDC

I was disappointed to see Tony Gonzalez (#1 non-QB last year) go two picks before me, and then pleased to see the first QB taken just before, because that left me with Tomlinson. I have Tomlinson projected for a bounce-back season, competing for #1 overall RB, so he was the top of my VBD list by a good ways at this point. My second choice was Calvin Johnson, but I'm very glad not to take a Detroit player in the first round.

2.04 Steve Smith, WR CAR

More QB love let a nice WR fall to me. If Smith manages to avoid punching out teammates and/or opponents, he should be back in the top 5. Last year he was top-5 despite having just 6 TDs; if Carolina's offense opens up even a little, Smith could compete for #1 overall. I have Smith as the end of the top WR tier; the only other player I seriously considered was Kellen Winslow Jr., but with the change of teams I think he's too risky here.

3.13 Braylon Edwards, WR CLE

We're now well into the "WRs With Issues" phase of the draft. I had really wanted Ochocino, who I think is the best of that bunch (could be big with Palmer back healthy and no Housh), but Duckboy snaked me again. I would have considered Brian Westbrook, but he went the pick before me. So that left me with Edwards, Roy Williams, and Desean Jackson. Williams is too much of a shot in the dark; I don't think there's any way to know if he can regain his ROY form; he didn't show much in Dallas last year. Desean is on a better offense than Edwards, and he's a Bear, but he's not the focus of the offense the way Edwards is. With the departure of Winslow, Edwards should see a ton of targets, and he's show the ability to produce.

4.04 Desean Jackson, WR PHI (Go Bears!)

Desean's size will keep him from being a true WR1, but his incredible moves and speed will get him targets and opportunities on the Eagles offense. Last year he finished as the #22 WR in this format despite scoring only three TDs; here he's going as the #21 WR. There has to be significant upside on this pick. Other possibilities were Hines Ward and Zach Miller. I feel like I need to start looking at TEs, but after Miller there's not a lot that's interesting; the top of my VBD board is mostly WRs with some RBs thrown in. I'm hoping Larry Johnson will last, as I have him projected a bit above the consensus.

5.13 Marshawn Lynch, RB BUF (Go Bears!)

I was sure Duckboy was going to snake me on this one again, but Marshawn survived to my pick. I had Larry Johnson rated a notch above him, but LJ went a couple picks earlier, and was glad to have Marshawn as my fall-back position. He's not quite as valuable in this format as he is in weekly head-to-head leagues; he will probably be in the top 10 in points per game, but missing 3 games with the suspension will probably keep him in the mid teens in this format. Still, he's the #24 RB off the board, and he should be a bargain there. I have Lynch (and Thomas Jones) at the top of VBD at this point; the WRs, TEs and QBs have been picked over pretty well. On the comeback, I'll probably be looking at someone like Donald Driver.

6.04 Bernard Berrian, WR MIN

Sitting on the top of my VBD board was Thomas Jones, but I just couldn't pull the trigger on him. I really don't think he's that talented, he's 31, he has no QB, and he has two players pushing him for playing time. I may need to tweak projections on him to reflect my personal opinions. There are still a good number of Thomas Jones-level RBs out there; Ray Rice, Cedric Benson, Willie Parker, and Jamal Lewis. I may be able to get one of those next round. In terms of FBG projections, Berrian was a bit down from Hixon and Holt who were at the top of the list, but I like Berrian's prospects more. He's a clear #1 in an offense which should be effective, and he finished as the #18 WR last year. He's WR#33 off the board, which should represent good value with upside. I also considered going TE here, but none of them look exciting; I am guessing I'll wind up with my first TE in the next two rounds (possibly Fasano or Heap).

7.13 Anthony Fasano, TE MIA

I coincidentally had two Miami receivers, Ginn and Fasano at the top of my pre-draft list; Ginn went the pick before me, so I'm now on the board with a TE. Fasano finished as the #9 TE last year; he's the 20th TE off the board, so I'm pleased with the value. He may not have a lot of upside from TE#9, but he should be a solid performer. He was not at the top of my VBD list, because Dodds has McMichael projected to score more points. I haven't done projections to the depth of the #20 TE; suffice it to say that I think Dodds is being optimistic. Although I may wind up with McMichael at my next turn, as the only real competition at this point are a few WRs I don't really like--Josh Morgan, Mushin Muhammad. Chris Henry might be worth a flier. RBs and QBs are seriously buried on the VBD chart; defenses are starting to come up, but it's against my religion to take a defense early. At this point I'm thinking I'll be grabbing QBs at the end of the draft.

8.04 Chris Henry, WR CIN

Some people I know have a "no buttheads" rule. I don't. Chris Henry is a butthead. But with Palmer healthy, Housh gone, and Ochocino having his own butthead factor, Henry has some real potential to get a lot of targets in what should be a pretty good offense. Palmer's been saying lots of positive things about him, and frankly, he's probably more talented than Coles. We'll see what happens; I like the potential here. This fills my fifth WR slot, so I'll have to be careful about taking any more; looking at the way VBD is shaping up, my next picks are likely to be RB and TE. RBs I'm interested in are Norwood, Chester Taylor, and possibly Tim Hightower depending on how serious the Beanie Wells injury is. (I hate Hightower, think he has no talent, but he may get another opportunity to start if Wells is out). I have Randy McMichael as my top TE.

9.13 Miami TMQB

For the third time, Duckboy snarfed my top pre-draft two picks before me; McMichael was a bit of a boom or bust choice, but given that totally marginal TE prospects have started to go off the board, it would have been nice to have a guaranteed #1 TE on a passing-oriented offense (even though it's a long way from the Greatest Show On Turf). But, enough of my high VBD picks were taken in the past round and a half that the QBs finally started to show a little value. Pennington came up big for me last year, drafted in the 18th round; here, there's probably not a huge amount of value, but he should provide solid production, and I show him at the end of a tier with a pretty big dropoff following. I like the pairing with Fasano; higher-variance picks are the way to go in this format. None of the RBs I mentioned have been taken, so I'm expecting to get one of them in the early 10th. I have them ranked Washington, Norwood, then Taylor.

10.04 Leon Washington, RB NYJ

I get my first choice this time. At this point in the draft, all of the RBs are backups entering the season. Frankly, I think Washington is more talented than Thomas Jones, and with Jones entering the season at age 31, this looks to me like the situation which has the greatest likelihood of resulting in a backup turning into a productive starter. Norwood and Taylor are both talented, but Peterson and Turner are the clear bell cows in those offenses; they won't get challenged for playing time unless they get hurt. With Washington and Jones, I think there are plausible scenarios where Jones gets benched for being ineffective. Washington is now in camp; he's still disgruntled, but I don't think that will take away from his opportunities.

For my next trick, I would take Norwood or Taylor if they're still there, but I'm more likely to wind up with another TE. Robert Royal and Desmond Clark are on my list. Other possibilities are Rasta Ricky and Ahmad Bradshaw.

11.13 Robert Royal, TE CLE

Royal sliding this far in this format looks to me like an oversight. He's not Kellen Winslow, but this is a team with no clear #2 receiver, which brought in a new head coach and brought in Royal to be the lead receiving TE. Winslow and Heiden combined for 125 targets last year, and 169 in 2007; if there are 150 TE targets in Cleveland, Royal will likely be a top-10 TE in this format. Here he goes off the board as the #28 TE, well behind some guys who are not even their teams' #1 TE. Neither Rasta nor Bradshaw was taken since my last turn; I think there's a good chance that I'll get one of them on the comeback.

12.04 Ahmad Bradshaw, RB NYG

I'm not sure how the #2 RB in New York lasted to RB#49. This offense is an RB's dream, and while Bradshaw has no chance of challenging Jacobs for the starting job, he performed very well in his backup role; with Ward gone, Bradshaw is likely to see 100 carries and 40+ receptions, with upside if Jacobs continues to have injury problems.

I'm now left with mostly constrained choices; one QB, two Ks, two Ds, and a flex. I'll probably look to take at least one K with my next two picks (aiming for Longwell, of course); I do think it's important to get kickers who are "guaranteed" to have a starting job all year (although last year I had Nugent, who got hurt in game 1 and missed the whole season, dammit). Ks are definitely more important than Ds for that reason. I really am about equal on most of the remaining QB prospects, although I lean slightly towards Cleveland to pair with Edwards.

For the flex, I might be looking at someone like Edgerrin James as a flyer at RB, or possibly Amani Toomer.

13.13 Browns TMQB

I was ready to go with Longwell as my choice here, but looking at the kickers selected so far, I'm expecting he'll be available at my next choice. I like the Browns TMQB here, because someone is going to come out on top in that QB controversy, and whoever does should have a pretty good season. Pairing this pick with Edwards increases my variance, which I like.

I'm now expecting to get Longwell with my next pick, then maybe another kicker depending on where things are.

14.04 Ryan Longwell, PK MIN (Go Bears!)

He's a kicker and a Bear. Other good kickers were still on the board, but there's not really any reason to care about kickers, so I don't. Longwell has as good a shot to finish in the top 5 as anyone. This pick started a kicker run, so I'm happy with the timing.

15.13 Jason Hanson, PK DET

He's a dome kicker who will have the job all year (barring injury--I had Nugent last year, grr.)

16.04 Niners D

What's left for me is two defense picks, and a flex flyer. None of the defenses left are particularly exciting, but I think the Niners, if they have any talent at all, have it on defense, and Singletary will pay attention to this unit.

17.13 Chansi Stuckey, WR NYJ

Needing to fill my flex spot, I was looking at a list of chancy (ha ha!) players; among them were Edgerrin James, Bryant Johnson, Kevin Jones, and Javon Walker. But the more I looked at it and read camp reports, the more I liked Chansi Stuckey. The reports coming out of camp have him looking like the #2 WR in New York. While that's not super-exciting, it could mean at least 40 or 50 balls, which makes him a pretty good pickup this late in the draft. He's at the top of VBD for me and probably anyone else using DD, so I thought I should grab him now and get my defense in the last round.

After this round, my team took the lead on DD's "team strength" screen for the first time in the draft. (Duckboy had the lead for most of the draft).

18.04 Denver DST

How the mighty have fallen; Denver used to be a good fantasy defense, and here they're taken as the #31 D, ahead of only Cincinatti. They still have Champ Bailey and should significantly outperform this draft position.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for the DD predictions JWB. I don't see how I'm last, but I imagine anyone would say the same. We'll see...

Here is where you rank by position, according to these DD projections:

QB - 2

RB - 6

WR - 16

TE - 14

K - 13

D - T-13

That doesn't really look too good, and that's not it. The flex can make these numbers a bit misleading:

You are only of only 3 teams with 5 RBs, so that probably inflates your RB rank.

4 teams have 3 TEs, but your 2 TEs would rank behind all of those teams' top 2 TEs in these projections, so that isn't affecting your ranking there.

And 9 teams have 6 WRs... but you rank last among all teams, so I don't think that is skewing your ranking there.

:popcorn:

These are just Dodds' projections, and without postseason points, so obviously things could turn out a lot differently.

QB-2 I would figure that's gotta be a one.

Sinrman and PAE are very strong but I disagree on that not being a one.

Will have to look at more details later. Thanks for the info

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for the DD predictions JWB. I don't see how I'm last, but I imagine anyone would say the same. We'll see...

Here is where you rank by position, according to these DD projections:

QB - 2

RB - 6

WR - 16

TE - 14

K - 13

D - T-13

That doesn't really look too good, and that's not it. The flex can make these numbers a bit misleading:

You are only of only 3 teams with 5 RBs, so that probably inflates your RB rank.

4 teams have 3 TEs, but your 2 TEs would rank behind all of those teams' top 2 TEs in these projections, so that isn't affecting your ranking there.

And 9 teams have 6 WRs... but you rank last among all teams, so I don't think that is skewing your ranking there.

:shrug:

These are just Dodds' projections, and without postseason points, so obviously things could turn out a lot differently.

QB-2 I would figure that's gotta be a one.

Sinrman and PAE are very strong but I disagree on that not being a one.

Will have to look at more details later. Thanks for the info

Per Dodds' current projections, the New England and Dallas Team QBs (598.8 projected fantasy points) are better than the New Orleans and Arizona Team QBs (596.5).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Per Dodds' current projections, the New England and Dallas Team QBs (598.8 projected fantasy points) are better than the New Orleans and Arizona Team QBs (596.5).

well...I guess I just disagree on that one. IIRC Dodds loves Brady this year. Who doesn't?It's Romo/Dal Team QB that I'd have an issue with here. Warner(Arizona Team QB) had 163 more points than Romo last year. Witten was awesome and TO is better than Roy. Without the playoffs(and Arizona has a far easier division) it gets closer but it's still a 50 point lead or so.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Chris Baker is the starting TE in NE now. Well worth the pick and had I known earlier I would have gobbled him up rounds and rounds ago (but couldn't).

I agree

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Re-defense 13, that's fine. I like the Texans D for FF this year and understand that's not the overall consensus.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Per Dodds' current projections, the New England and Dallas Team QBs (598.8 projected fantasy points) are better than the New Orleans and Arizona Team QBs (596.5).

well...I guess I just disagree on that one. IIRC Dodds loves Brady this year. Who doesn't?It's Romo/Dal Team QB that I'd have an issue with here. Warner(Arizona Team QB) had 163 more points than Romo last year. Witten was awesome and TO is better than Roy. Without the playoffs(and Arizona has a far easier division) it gets closer but it's still a 50 point lead or so.
OK, like I said, these are just Dodds' projections and could turn out differently. I suspect the bigger issue is your positions other than QB... Good luck.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FWIW, here is the Draft Dominator's view of the teams, based on latest projections (DD says 8/10 projections, but I updated them this morning and they changed slightly):

2903.2 Just Win Baby

2881.8 radballs

2833.5 Duckboy

2829.9 Anarchy99

2711.1 CalBear

2697.3 Fiddles

2695.1 There It Is

2682.1 Jiggyonthehut

2680.9 rzrback77

2591.2 nittanylion

2586.5 Captain Hook

2549.5 Biabreakable

2546.2 Sinrman

2487.6 Old Milwaukee

2454.2 Pimpin' Ain't Easy

2422.2 Bri

Caveats:

I made no attempt to change projections from the defaults. Obviously many people will have different projections and thus will feel differently than what is shown by these numbers.

DD does not factor in NFL playoff games, and thus those points are not accounted for.

We use Team QBs, so I added 3 rounds to the draft in order to add all backup QBs listed in DD. So all teams have 4-5 individual QBs. This seems to be the best way to represent team QBs in DD. (I could have modified the projections by hand to give all of each team’s projected fantasy points to its starter, but that would have prevented updating projections without more manual conversions.)

Despite the issues cited above, I think this is as good as any other quick view of the results. Injuries will obviously be the biggest factor, but this has done a decent job in past years of assessing the results in Anarchy drafts. On that subject, here is a recap from last season:

Final update before the season (I assume the current Dodds projections are his final projections):

2857.4 Just Win Baby Predicted 1, Finished 6

2776.1 Biabreakable Predicted 2, Finished 2

2756.4 CalBear Predicted 3, Finished 8

2743.5 Anarchy99 Predicted 4, Finished 13

2719.9 Duckboy Predicted 5, Finished 3

2715.2 radballs Predicted 6, Finished 5

2667.7 Old Milwaukee Predicted 7, Finished 7

2655.5 Fiddles Predicted 8, Finished 4

2642.9 Jiggyonthehut Predicted 9, Finished 11

2610.2 There It Is Predicted 10, Finished 1

2586.3 nittanylion Predicted 11, Finished 14

2581.1 joffer Predicted 12, Finished 12

2565.0 Captain Hook Predicted 13, Finished 9

2499.4 Bri Predicted 14, Finished 10

2416.4 Sinrman Predicted 15, Finished 15

2323.5 Pimpin' Ain't Easy Predicted 16, Finished 16

So, how did the DD predictions (with default projections) hold up? It got 5 positions exactly right and predicted 3 others within 2 spots of their final finish. Only 2 teams finished more than 5 positions off DD's projection. Not bad, considering this did not account for playoff points and was obviously subject to being thrown off by injuries.

ETA: When I was posting these DD rankings after our draft, there was some debate as to how accurate its projections might be. I said that I thought it would generally get the top half and bottom half teams right, though not necessarily their actual positions, and I thought if a team was not predicted in the top half it had a slim chance to win.

Well, There It Is was predicted 10th and won... but 7 of the 8 teams DD projected to finish in the top 8 did so. So I think my statements were actually correct. There It Is just made the most of his "slim chance."

While this is very interesting IIRC I was pretty dang low according to Dodds list in the early going. Then as things got closer to the season starting Dodds projections changed ranking me a lot higher than I was early on.

And I think for wrong reasons. Chris Perry was a late penciled in starter that I had gambled on. That didnt work out so good. Without that and I am guessing a few other players (who actualy did do well) are what caused Dodds rankings for my draft to be higher late in the season when it was not earlier.

Right?

I think you guys know by now in total points I play high risk. 2nd place is not my goal my goal is to win. And to do that amoungst this group of drafters I have to land some guys no one is keen on to make the difference for me.

Following the herd will lead to mediocre. So I am glad I am not too high here. If I were I would be drafting what everyone else is drafting. That aint going to win. If the risks I take don't pan out and I end up the bottom team? Oh well. Not really any different than 2nd to me.

Briefly - And I will do write ups for everyone. But I would like to hear what you guys think of your own team 1st if at all possible.

So my team

1.09 9. Gates, Antonio SDC TE - Gates worked out well for me last year despite toe injury holding him back all year. I really like guys who will play through injuries like this. Gates is a top 3 TE and a huge advantage in this format. It was hard to not take LT. I was really torn. But do to the scoring and how well Gates worked out for me last year. Had to take him again. Playoffs likely.

2.08 24. Welker, Wes NEP WR - This guy is a machine. For as long as I been looking over stats on WR I can't recall ever seeing a WR finish 2 seasons so close in actual numbers. If someone knows of another example I would be curious. Then with Brady back now too? I feel real good about this pick. Playoffs close to a lock.

3.09 41. Marshall, Brandon DEN WR This guy has a lot of risk. However Orton has never gotten to play with a WR like him who makes a QB job a lot easier. A my ball WR. Another head case and all of that. But I still see 80 receptions or more from this guy. He missed games with suspension last year but caught up in a big hurry. Playoffs doubtful.

4.08 56. Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB I think this guy could compete for top 12 as a rookie. But he is a rookie. New coach. Maybe this is a year too early type of deal but I like Moreno more than a lot of RB drafted ahead of him.

5.09 73. Johnson, Larry KCC RB Some are worried about Jamal Charles. I am not one of them. LJ will be a solid RB 2 who can compete for the top 12. Playoffs doubtfull.

6.08 88. Lewis, Jamal CLE RB Another older RB who has seen better years like some think of Larry Johnson. However I think the Browns have one of the most talented Olines in the league right now. And Jamal is a workhorse. So this late? He was one of the few guys left at RB really worth having.

7.09 105. Broncos, Denver DEN TMQB I like Orton and those WR. IF everyone is so high on Marshall and Royal (with good reason) how can they not like Orton? I am gonna live or die by Denver this year.

8.08 120. Smith, Steve NYG WR I think in PPR he should be considered the #1 WR for the Giants. Less exciting in non PPR leagues.

9.09 137. Burleson, Nate SEA WR I think Nate is more healthy and a better player than Branch is. He should be WR2 behind Housh. They are similar type of players actualy when Nate is healthy. That might be a bad thing. Not totaly confident in this pick. But he seemed like a good guy to hope gets 60 catches this season and help me keep up at WR.

10.08 152. Chargers, San Diego SDC Def I think this pick depends on how Merriman plays this season. But with him and the rookie OLB insurance they drafted. I think SD defense rebounds back to the top 10 or so for defenses. Playoffs likely.

11.09 169. Watson, Ben NEP TE Wed - So I hear you guys talking about Baker. I might have really messed this one up. If he can even split time and get 30 catches I will be happy though. Playoffs a near lock. Not that it will help if he isn't starting.

12.08 184. Redskins, Washington WAS Def - Haynesworth changes this defense. I think they will be above average. Which is all I think I need to get a slight advantage here on defense.

13.09 201. Cook, Jared TEN TE Thu - Another risky pick. But I think Cook has the best hands on the whole team. Bo can block Cook can't (as well) so get your best hands in a mismatch when you need a 1st down. I think he does well right away. Although I know that is rare for a rookie TE.

14.08 216. Tynes, Lawrence NYG PK - Giants kicker. I like Kickers for good rushing teams but somewhat suspect passing games. More field goals. Playoffs likely.

15.09 233. Brown, Andre NYG RB Sat - I think Bradshaw is the backup and COP. But I thought that last year while Ward was getting a lot of work. So high risk/reward for Jacobs injury or Brown just getting more action than anyone thinks at this point.

16.08 248. Scobee, Josh JAC PK Jaguars Kicker. Again I like kickers on running teams. JAX has a healthy offensive line now. I think they have a better year than last year. Playoffs doubtful.

17.09 265. Heyward-Bey, Darrius OAK WR - Everyone hates this guy and the early news has not been good. Hamstirng injury can either really hold a WR back or it is just a symptom of dehydration. I don't know the answer here. Hoping it is the later and DHB can get his act together enough to prove the doubters wrong. High risk I know.

18.08 280. Jets, New York NYJ TMQB - So the Jets are the worst passing game in the league huh? Ok I think they will run a lot and then run some more too. But with thier Oline. I think there will be other QB who score less and that makes this pick a win.

Drafting in this group is never easy. Things I got away with in other redrafts this offseason I was not getting away with here.

Still that being said I feel pretty good about what I came away with overall.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

11.09 169. Watson, Ben NEP TE Wed - So I hear you guys talking about Baker. I might have really messed this one up. If he can even split time and get 30 catches I will be happy though. Playoffs a near lock. Not that it will help if he isn't starting.

Even when Watson was starting he only had 30 receptions twice in 5 seasons.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Warner(Cards QB)

Brees(Saints QB)

I think I have the best QBs and in this 6 points per TD, I think they're going to score a ton of points-enough to overcome deficiencies elsewhere. Looking at last year's scoring, the top RBs didn't offer that luxury. It was the QBs that really stood out as the extra high players(and Fitz). IIRC this was the case the last time I played in this league too.

I also think at least one of these two is rolling into the playoffs if not both.

Pats D-same as last year(despite it not doing well last year) I think they're a very good D and a "sure bet" to go deep into the playoffs. With players getting injured so often, it seems a little easier to predict a D will be around late into the playoffs than any one player. (although again, I was wrong on Pats last year)

I think the Texans D is well set to make a big improvement and/or big impact in 09. Star DE-check, Star MLB-check. Star OLB-insert rookie stud. Ridiculous athlete at DT-check(hopefully he plays better). Two former first rounders at DT. Tons of depth at LB in former starters. Stud CB in Dunta. Former starter as nickel back in Fred Bennett....it's all there. New DC Frank Bush has to get it done and I have some concerns with that but that D is built pretty well and in an excellent position to do well. Jacoby seems like a fine return man and hopefully with his improved WR play he'll regain some confidence to be a game breaker.

Josh Brown is fine by me. That team was terrible last year and if they improve a little bit he should be fine. Rookie QB or inexperienced QB or rookie RB having trouble finishing drives...Jay Feely could get plenty of work. What I don't like here is their playoff possibilities. Jets are a maybe IMO, Rams no way.

Orton threw to the TE a ton in Chicago. Scheffler was excellent when he wasn't hurt or whining. While Marshall still has been in the news, Scheffler's been relatively quiet and I'm hoping he's just going to play. If healthy, I think he can be a top TE beneath the big 3-4.

Brad Cottam=guy replacing Tony G with nowhere near the amount of ability as Tony G. Still, I like the opportunity for a 17th round pick as a guy that can be a considerable value there. If he's meh and gets 300 yards for the year...eh so what he's a 17th rounder. I doubt he does though.

RBs-

I like Wells and Hightower this year. (With Edge)Last year Hightower was fine by himself as a backup/red zone RB. If Beanie gets dinged up, I'll still get the yards in this format. If he's healthy, I think he or Knowshon are best setup to be ROY.

I'm expecting Kevin Smith to get a ton of work and if Stafford starts, even more work for Smith. If Schwartz can improved that D enough to keep them in games(not losing by 30) Smith could sneak into the top 10 by season's end. I doubt there's much of any playoff chance here though.

I like Freddie T. I love what I'm reading from NE/Boston papers and I think this pick could be great for an 8th rounder.

KC's starting RB has been hurt all but one year in the last 20-25 years. Jamaal Charles should get in as a starter on top of being a decent backup.

WRs

I've avoided Roy in every draft and well it was about time to draft him in one. He was good in Detroit and Dallas does have a good shot at being around late into the playoffs. Yeah sure Phillips will probably find a way to mess it up but in August, I think Dallas will be around late into the playoffs.

Crabtree- Ridiculous prospect at WR, he's got everything. Even the big ego+mouth I can't stand yet so many top WRs have. I don't like predicting big success for a rook but this is a pretty good bet IMO.

Deion Branch will only be good or healthy for a handful of games(most years) but in the 12th, he seemed clearly the best WR value left. If by some stroke of luck he actually stays healthy for a decent number of games, which I don't expect, this will be a gem of a pick.

Laurent was an oops but I'm fine with him. I'd probably have grabbed him later anyway. I was waiting for him to explode in Atlanta and then both Jenkins and White suddenly played better, White just exploded into a stud WR. On a new team, I think Laurent can start and make a decent impact as the only WR with any notable height. Avery's recent injury should get Laurent even more time in practice. Burton doesn't impress me. Curry can't be relied upon and Spags should just put him in the slot.

I'm tired of reading how good Javon looks and need to see him actually play well or even remotely good. Still, I've always thought he had the ability to do well in the NFL so I'll take a last pick shot on him.

All in all, my WRs probably are the worst in the league but when I went two QBs I knew I'd take a hit somewhere.

I got beat a few times with picks going before I expected. 16 team drafts usually have alot of that though. For example I wanted Chris Henry and was sure he'd come back to me. I really think Henry is going to do great this year and that was a big monkey wrench into my plans.

I would have drafted differently if I could again, but I haven't done any 16 team mocks so that's probably to be expected.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think Bia probably drafted best here. I don't much care for the TEs but really like the rest of the roster, even the late picks. If Cook does real well(and I don't think he will til 2010) I figure he's in the top few teams.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All in all, my WRs probably are the worst in the league

After a little cereal, came back and re-looked at the rosters and...I don't think there's a probably here. My WRs are the worst

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

While this is very interesting IIRC I was pretty dang low according to Dodds list in the early going. Then as things got closer to the season starting Dodds projections changed ranking me a lot higher than I was early on.And I think for wrong reasons. Chris Perry was a late penciled in starter that I had gambled on. That didnt work out so good. Without that and I am guessing a few other players (who actualy did do well) are what caused Dodds rankings for my draft to be higher late in the season when it was not earlier.Right?

I looked back at last year's thread, and you were initially projected 10th and ultimately moved up to 2nd in the final projections. I don't recall what the reason was (i.e., which players of yours jumped up in the projections).So obviously a lot can change between now and the start of the season. I would tend to think that kind of move would be somewhat unusual. We'll see.

I think you guys know by now in total points I play high risk. 2nd place is not my goal my goal is to win. And to do that amoungst this group of drafters I have to land some guys no one is keen on to make the difference for me.Following the herd will lead to mediocre. So I am glad I am not too high here. If I were I would be drafting what everyone else is drafting. That aint going to win. If the risks I take don't pan out and I end up the bottom team? Oh well. Not really any different than 2nd to me.

When you do your writeups, I'd be interested to know which teams you think followed the herd. I don't think there are necessarily any teams following a herd approach in this group and with this format.You seem to be saying that you think if your team ranked high in the projections it would imply herd mentality... which would lead to a mediocre result... but that's not what happened last year to your team or to any other team that was projected high. David's was the only one to fall significantly, and he had Brady.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Okay self analysis before the wolves try for a piece :D remember how not correct some writeups were last year

And not my favorite way to write up the team but going by draft picks so we have some uniformity

1.07 Matt Forte, RB, Da Bears - should be a solid RB1 even without PPR

2.10 Steve Slaton, RB, Houston - well the Top TE/WR had all been taken, so I took a very solid RB2 (lots of good choices there) over a lesser WR, hoping to make RB a strength for my squad and snag some undervalued WR later

3.07 T. J. Houshmandzadeh, Seattle - Championship!.....well at least the best WR available at that point

4.10 John Carlson, TE, Seattle - wanted to get some solid producers at this important position and with Hass hopefully back healthy, I think Carlson will do very well - and they play in the NFC Worst

5.07 Derrick Ward, RB, Tampa Bay - I thought he had slipped way too far in a sixteen team league.....and likely didn't like the other choices

6.10 Devin Hester, WR, Chicago - again best WR on my list as I expect Hester to continue to improve with a guy who can actually get him the ball downfield

7.07 Kevin Boss, TE, NYG - getting one of the solid middle TE to pair with Carlson.....I actually think Boss is way underrated this year, he developed nicely last year, has chemistry with Eli and their WR are not great so he should be a great safety valve option this year

8.10 Jacksonville TMQB - I think Garrard represents good value at this point and with Holt and MJD has two really nice targets and some (although who is a good ?) who will emerge.....also can run a few in

9.07 New York Football Giants TMQB - part of the plan in waiting was to build elsewhere but still get two solid contributors - Eli is not higly ranked this year and while there are questions about the receivers, he will be fine with contributions over the course of the season and has playoff possibilities

10.10 Greg Camarillo, WR, MIA - solid contributor in a PPR league IF he can stay on the field

11.07 Brian Robiskie, WR, CLE - you rat basterds had decimated my mid-draft WR list, but I like Robiskie, he is a good route runner if not flashy, and should at least have Opportunity with the Browns

12.10 Carolina Panthers DST - they seemed to outlast their normal pick in the ranks and have at least some playoff potential

13.07 Miami Dolphins DST - overlooked? I think they should be better this year and was amazed at that point in the draft they were still on the board

14.10 James Davis, RB, CLE - no secrets with this group and I see Davis with a real chance to emerge if Lewis can't carry the load

15.07 Mark Bradley, WR, KC - only knock or reason not to alreaady have drafted Bradely is the injury thing - but if on the field, he will be hauling in passes from Cassel because the Chiefs will be behind a LOT this year

16.10 Matt Prater, K, DEN - with so many decent Flex choices still on the boards and kickers flying I opted for a guy with a strong leg who also gets to kick half the time in Mile High

17.07 Steven Hauschka, K, BALT - the Ravens kicker will always be a decent scorer even if we don't know how to spell his name - and really what was left

18.10 Mewelde Moore, RB, PIT - Mr Not So Irrelevant for my team (and I am pretty sure that many of you felt the same way with some nice players drafted in the last round)........but MM has a real chance to contribute good numbers - Again....not necessarily what he got last year, BUT he knows the system, plays hard, catches the ball well and doesn't have two really healthy guys in front of him....and has playoff potential

So, overall I think a middle of the pack team but with fewer holes and more upside than many and decent TE combo = better than a Stud and a Dud.

QB - probably average

RB - should be one of the leading foursomes (not countng flex with RB)

WR - perhaps below average if Bradely misses time and/or Robiskie isnt' WR2 for Cleveland but NOT terrible

TE - solid pair

Flex - Moore is better than many

K and DST - have two of each like everyone else

Should be fun to follow and kid about all year. Best of luck to all of you guys in your other drafts - very solid group of drafters here :lmao:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Buccaneers, Tampa Bay

Lions, Detroit

I got to a certain point where there really was not a lot differentiating the teams that were left and the projections that were available, so to me it did not make sense to grab th #20 QB vs say the last QB. I obviously didn't invest much so I am not expecting much either. Neither team has a stable QB situation, meaning that things could be all over the map production wise. If Bryant can recover quickly paired with KW, at least TB has a couple options. DET has Megatron, so there will be something there (how much who knows).

Graham, Earnest

Peterson, Adrian

Taylor, Chester

Thomas, Pierre

I didn't really want the first pick but "settled" on ADP. He should be solid if hurt (and I have CT if he is). Maybe they make the post season, maybe not. Pierre Thomas starts looking better with each passing day and I'm glad I took him. Graham is a total mystery, but I'm not buying he's the starter on the current depth chart stuff. Overall this should be a decent scoring group.

Bowe, Dwayne

Bryant, Antonio

Engram, Bobby

Muhammad, Muhsin

Thomas, Devin

Walter, Kevin

I really liked this group until the recent Bryant surgery news. Bowe will catch a lot of passes and I see Engram getting a lot of his own in the Welker role in KC. Thomas should be a starter this year, Muhammad is the same as always, and Walter seems to always be undervalued. If I make any noise, this is where I will make up for crappy QBs.

Olsen, Greg

Scaife, Bo

I'm not really sold on Olsen yet, but with so many others being on the bandwagon and most of the other guys already gone he seemed like he had the upside to make taking him there worthwhile. I also think Sciafe is getting ignored a little too much, but I doubt he'll be a huge point scorer.

Brown, Kris

Hartley, Garrett

I think both the Saints and Texans will score a lot of points, and that usually helps kickers some.

Bengals, Cincinnati

Buccaneers, Tampa Bay

Can't say I love these two, but like with the TMQBs, didn't see the plus in grabbing one several rounds earlier.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

11.09 169. Watson, Ben NEP TE Wed - So I hear you guys talking about Baker. I might have really messed this one up. If he can even split time and get 30 catches I will be happy though. Playoffs a near lock. Not that it will help if he isn't starting.

Even when Watson was starting he only had 30 receptions twice in 5 seasons.
Yeah this might be my biggest mistake made.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Following the herd will lead to mediocre. So I am glad I am not too high here. If I were I would be drafting what everyone else is drafting. That aint going to win. If the risks I take don't pan out and I end up the bottom team? Oh well. Not really any different than 2nd to me.

When you do your writeups, I'd be interested to know which teams you think followed the herd. I don't think there are necessarily any teams following a herd approach in this group and with this format.You seem to be saying that you think if your team ranked high in the projections it would imply herd mentality... which would lead to a mediocre result... but that's not what happened last year to your team or to any other team that was projected high. David's was the only one to fall significantly, and he had Brady.
Ok let me try to exaplain a little better what I mean by this. And it is a double edged sword.Guys like Dodds and many of us here are always reading and going back and forth on little tidbits of news. How one minor injury, a personel move ect. might change projections for the players it has an effect on. And to be honest a guy like me who does most of my own research on my own and does not read very much on expert opinion.. althought I might read the same news and come to the same conclusion.. sometimes I don't. And sometimes I missed that tidbit of information all together. So really it is hard for a guy like me to compete with the collective knowledge of the twitering FF community. However the advantage I do have is that I am not getting caught up in the group think that is unavoidable due to so often comparing of the same notes with the same group of people. Knowledgable and respected as they deserve to be.Example here Baker and team plans of what they are going to do with Ben Watson. I knew Baker had been signed as free agent. But honestly I don't think a great deal of him as a player in FF. So I was making a decision based off this impression.. and also thinking that Watson still had a starting role with the team and the team was commited to him as the starter. Even though he has really struggled and not lived up to expectations. And to be honest.. the Pats not being a team that I read about frequently. But I respect due to thier high probablility of making the playoffs, which is valuable in this league.I very rarely read FBG articles or look at thier rankings. And other sites even less than that. And not because there is not good and interesting information there. But just because I like to do it myself. I did read Cappybaras life of a stud article. Because I love his work a lot. But most of it? Not at all. This is just a decision I made many years ago. It makes my enjoyment of this hobby that we share more enjoyable to me doing things my way.So it is not my intention really to take shots at Dodds or any of us here who are more plugged in to this collective information than I am. And my previous comments may have come across that way. But that being said doing things my way has also been successful. And that is just that much sweeter to me when it is. Because I know I did it mostly by myself.I have not been looking at any ADP using draft dominator ect. ect.Not that these are not useful tools. They are. But I am drafting based off of what I think is best. Not what everyone else agrees with.So I hope that makes sense. Now I will get back into smack talk mode. :thumbup:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And not my favorite way to write up the team but going by draft picks so we have some uniformity

I would say write up however you think is best.When I do write ups for all the teams it will be by position moreso than draft order. That will lead back to talk about draft decisions that were made. Both have merit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.