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Unemployment lowest since 2008 (1 Viewer)

bigbottom said:
FlapJacks said:
bigbottom said:
Andrew74 said:
This is disappointing news overall, especially when you couple it with what is happening in the unemployment claims series. We are seeing initial and continuing claims creep upwards, and the extended claims series hasn't done anything but go up. At this point many we estimating we would see job growth, but other than the blip in November we aren't there. The Unemployment rate going down is noise at this point.
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When the stock market is up, it doesn't matter because the unemployment rate continues to rise and that's what really matters. The U.S. economy for fourth quarter 2009 grows at its fastest rate in six years, but that doesn't matter because the unemployment rate continues to rise and that's what really matters. Then, when the unemployment rate drops, it's just "noise." I'm not saying the January numbers are cause for celebration, far from it, but it almost feels like no matter what the news is, some will argue that it's bad news. This reminds me of the criticisms against the liberals who were "rooting for failure" in Iraq.Edit: I don't mean to imply that you're rooting for the economy to fail. But I think there are definitely positive aspects to the numbers for January, what with job gains in manufacturing, retail and temporary employment. Also, the survey of households apparently indicates significant employment gains.
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Part of it is that the unemployment "rate" is a farce of a statistic. The bottom line is that it looks like more jobs were lost than gained, but at least losses are slowing.
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If it's a farce of a statistic, how come I kept hearing people keep referincing it to slam Obama when it hit 10%?
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media brainwashing. Nobody want to report a much higher real unemployment rate.
 
Bronco Billy said:
Fennis said:
Bronco Billy said:
Fennis said:
someone may have to talk p boy off the ledge if we see job growth.

Fennis said:
It looks like positive job growth will start in early 2010.
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Were the lefties required to take some kind of psychotropic drug this morning? First the tea party thread and now this. What in the Seven Hells are you talking about?
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Since you seem to take glee out of bad numbers, it would seem the opposite would be true.
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Do you actually read any posts, or do you just see my name and automatically leap to a conclusion despite posts being completely contrary to the tortured point you are trying to make (as well as "cleverly" trying to "out" me as P_Boy when I explained what happened with that moniker a few days ago).
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I have no idea or really care what happened to the P Boy "moniker". Just a tip, you can take it or leave it: If you don’t want to be associated with that name, you should have a different avatar, attitude and even more importantly don't respond to posts directed at P Boy.
 
Fennis said:
I have no idea or really care what happened to the P Boy "moniker". Just a tip, you can take it or leave it: If you don’t want to be associated with that name, you should have a different avatar, attitude and even more importantly don't respond to posts directed at P Boy.
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Fennis, you simply aren't important enough to me to care what your opinion is. I was Bronco Billy a long time before I was ever P_Boy here. Bronco Billy got banned and his name erased (for good reason if I remember correctly), and so I took up other psuedonyms one at a time until this latest iteration. That you seem to think yourself so very clever for figuring this out doesn't suprise me in the least. I've never once attempted to use any different user name as some kind of MB alter identity or tried to hide that different monikers were the same poster.Even more, it allows you to deflect from my response to you in the first place - which was referring to whether you actually have read my posts in this thread or whether you have simply and merely seen a response by me in this thread and instead of reading jumped to your typical mindless conclusions based upon uninformed and incorrect assumptions.
 
Bronco Billy said:
Fennis said:
I have no idea or really care what happened to the P Boy "moniker". Just a tip, you can take it or leave it: If you don’t want to be associated with that name, you should have a different avatar, attitude and even more importantly don't respond to posts directed at P Boy.
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Fennis, you simply aren't important enough to me to care what your opinion is. I was Bronco Billy a long time before I was ever P_Boy here. Bronco Billy got banned and his name erased (for good reason if I remember correctly), and so I took up other psuedonyms one at a time until this latest iteration. That you seem to think yourself so very clever for figuring this out doesn't suprise me in the least. I've never once attempted to use any different user name as some kind of MB alter identity or tried to hide that different monikers were the same poster.Even more, it allows you to deflect from my response to you in the first place - which was referring to whether you actually have read my posts in this thread or whether you have simply and merely seen a response by me in this thread and instead of reading jumped to your typical mindless conclusions based upon uninformed and incorrect assumptions.
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Tell you what the next time you show happiness over bad economic news because you gain over political points, I'll point it out to you. You can use it for self improvement. :hifive:
 
KnowledgeReignsSupreme said:
timschochet said:
Here is my question as it relates to the OP: What kind of unemployment numbers will be needed for Obama and the Dems to see success in November? Does he need some huge rise in employment? Or will relatively flat numbers with a slow uptick, like we saw today, be enough? (Or do you believe that the Dems will lose anyhow due to other factors like fiscal spending, healthcare, etc.?) Please give your opinion.
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I don't think there's enough political will for Congress to pass a big enough jobs package to make the Dems have success in November. There's obviously lots of incentive for ®s to block a jobs bill since it benefits them to do so, even if it hurts their constituents. Not sure what it would take for a bi-partisan jobs bills to get passed.
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A big dip in the stock market should do it. That got them to vote for TARP.
 
bigbottom said:
If it's a farce of a statistic, how come I kept hearing people keep referincing it to slam Obama when it hit 10%?
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Two reasons:1) He promised it wouldn't rise above 8% if we passed his pork laden stimulus POS bill. Farce of a stat or not, he made the promise.2) Because they can.
 
Depressing stat. Other than the double-dip recession in 1980-82, this is the first time since WWII that a recession has wiped out ALL the job gains of the previous expansion. We blew the gains away by 300,000 jobs. :thumbup:

 
The headline numbers in Friday's report — the unemployment rate and jobs added or lost — will still be important. Economists polled by Thomson Reuters project the unemployment rate rose to 9.8 percent in February from 9.7 percent a month earlier.

At the peak of the recession, employers were shedding more than 700,000 jobs a month. In February, they are expected to have cut 20,000 jobs for the second straight month.

"Job losses have slowed significantly," said Arpitha Bykere, a senior analyst at Roubini Global Economics. "A recovery now hinges on hiring."
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Link
 
bigbottom said:
The headline numbers in Friday's report — the unemployment rate and jobs added or lost — will still be important. Economists polled by Thomson Reuters project the unemployment rate rose to 9.8 percent in February from 9.7 percent a month earlier.

At the peak of the recession, employers were shedding more than 700,000 jobs a month. In February, they are expected to have cut 20,000 jobs for the second straight month.

"Job losses have slowed significantly," said Arpitha Bykere, a senior analyst at Roubini Global Economics. "A recovery now hinges on hiring."
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Link
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Damn.Still losing jobs. This is really disheartening, no matter how it is spun about the lessening of job loses. We've heard this mantra since last November that we've hit bottom and we're going to see a rebound, and yet the loses still mount.

:lmao:

 
bigbottom said:
The headline numbers in Friday's report — the unemployment rate and jobs added or lost — will still be important. Economists polled by Thomson Reuters project the unemployment rate rose to 9.8 percent in February from 9.7 percent a month earlier.

At the peak of the recession, employers were shedding more than 700,000 jobs a month. In February, they are expected to have cut 20,000 jobs for the second straight month.

"Job losses have slowed significantly," said Arpitha Bykere, a senior analyst at Roubini Global Economics. "A recovery now hinges on hiring."
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Link
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Warren Buffett agrees.But I do not think that will stop the detractors; after all Warren Buffett is a Nazis -communist - atheist - Obama-bot.

 
Unfortunately there aren't many new jobs being created. Most of the job ads are recruiters moving people around.

 
The job market is showing some good signs but some bad signs as well. The unemployment rate for people out of work for less than 6 months is dropping. The unemployment rate for people out of work for more than 6 months is at record highs and still growing. What we're seeing here is that new layoffs are slowing down. But hiring is not picking up. That ultimately yields a flat rate of unemployment, which is what we're seeing.

Charts of unemployment

Less than 5 weeks:

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_xIr_IzgllhU/S7dC...eks+or+less.png

5-14 weeks:

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_xIr_IzgllhU/S7dC.../5-14+weeks.png

15-26 weeks:

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_xIr_IzgllhU/S7dC...15-26+weeks.png

27+ weeks:

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_xIr_IzgllhU/S7dC...+weeks+plus.png

A flat rate of unemployment for much of the last year:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_4jIlyJ10uJU/S7Xq...s400/Unrate.JPG

We're really looking for long-term unemployment to start coming down. But its still parabolic.

 
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I love how both sides try to spin the data to fit their needs.

Bottom line is that the economy still stinks, way too many people are unemployed/underemployed and the 9.whatever is just not a real representation of the true unemployment. There are a lot of real people behind those numbers. That is the real important thing to remember.

 
I think 8-10% unemployment will be the norm in this country going forward.

 
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Phurfur said:
I think 8-10% unemployment will be the norm in this country going forward.
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Well, as we continue to shape ourselves into a European type of country... that just may be right. However, I think that the American people are not one that would be 'ok' with it as the Europeans are. They will demand real 'change' for a 'hope' to bettering the employment numbers. As each day goes by, regardless of whether it is 'right' or 'wrong', Obama owns the economy more and more in the eyes of the electorate. We will already see a bloodbath in Congress and there is real anger out there. It could just possibly lead to real change for this country by forcing the Democrats out and the Republicans to actually act like Republicans.
 
Chadstroma said:
Phurfur said:
I think 8-10% unemployment will be the norm in this country going forward.
Click to expand...
Well, as we continue to shape ourselves into a European type of country... that just may be right. However, I think that the American people are not one that would be 'ok' with it as the Europeans are. They will demand real 'change' for a 'hope' to bettering the employment numbers. As each day goes by, regardless of whether it is 'right' or 'wrong', Obama owns the economy more and more in the eyes of the electorate. We will already see a bloodbath in Congress and there is real anger out there. It could just possibly lead to real change for this country by forcing the Democrats out and the Republicans to actually act like Republicans.
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This belongs in the "This is Funny" thread.
 
Like I say, ultimately the topic WILL turn to oil. There's an oil crisis coming. And its far too late for Obama to do anything to stop it, or fix it, before he runs for re-election. Fixing unemployment by stimulating everything just creates worse problems. That's a lesson Barack will learn the hard way.

 
Fennis said:
Chadstroma said:
Phurfur said:
I think 8-10% unemployment will be the norm in this country going forward.
Click to expand...
Well, as we continue to shape ourselves into a European type of country... that just may be right. However, I think that the American people are not one that would be 'ok' with it as the Europeans are. They will demand real 'change' for a 'hope' to bettering the employment numbers. As each day goes by, regardless of whether it is 'right' or 'wrong', Obama owns the economy more and more in the eyes of the electorate. We will already see a bloodbath in Congress and there is real anger out there. It could just possibly lead to real change for this country by forcing the Democrats out and the Republicans to actually act like Republicans.
Click to expand...
This belongs in the "This is Funny" thread.
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Its a process. We're never going to get real change until someone other than the democrats have a supermajority. That's when you start up the process of constitutional amendments and radical changes to reshape how this nation operates. And despite the 2008 election, we're closer to that goal than ever.
 
kaa said:
Fennis said:
Chadstroma said:
Phurfur said:
I think 8-10% unemployment will be the norm in this country going forward.
Click to expand...
Well, as we continue to shape ourselves into a European type of country... that just may be right. However, I think that the American people are not one that would be 'ok' with it as the Europeans are. They will demand real 'change' for a 'hope' to bettering the employment numbers. As each day goes by, regardless of whether it is 'right' or 'wrong', Obama owns the economy more and more in the eyes of the electorate. We will already see a bloodbath in Congress and there is real anger out there. It could just possibly lead to real change for this country by forcing the Democrats out and the Republicans to actually act like Republicans.
Click to expand...
This belongs in the "This is Funny" thread.
Click to expand...
Its a process. We're never going to get real change until someone other than the democrats have a supermajority. That's when you start up the process of constitutional amendments and radical changes to reshape how this nation operates. And despite the 2008 election, we're closer to that goal than ever.
Click to expand...
No this belongs in the "This is Funny" thread.
 
Fennis said:
Chadstroma said:
Phurfur said:
I think 8-10% unemployment will be the norm in this country going forward.
Click to expand...
Well, as we continue to shape ourselves into a European type of country... that just may be right. However, I think that the American people are not one that would be 'ok' with it as the Europeans are. They will demand real 'change' for a 'hope' to bettering the employment numbers. As each day goes by, regardless of whether it is 'right' or 'wrong', Obama owns the economy more and more in the eyes of the electorate. We will already see a bloodbath in Congress and there is real anger out there. It could just possibly lead to real change for this country by forcing the Democrats out and the Republicans to actually act like Republicans.
Click to expand...
This belongs in the "This is Funny" thread.
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Really? Does the health care bill make us look more or less similar to a European country? You can argue that it is either a good thing or a bad thing to be more like a western European country like France in as much as quality of life etc. Those are valid arguments. However, these western socialist leaning European countries have historically had constant and consistent high unemployment. My point is simply that if we continue on the road we are on, we will end up with the same constant and consistent high unemployment rates. I do not see anything funny about that. You may, you may laugh at all the unemployed, but I don't. I am hoping that the rest of the system will be able to shrug off what is being done to it currently but I am not convinced that it will. Further, and more importantly, I am not sure that Pelosi, Reid and Obama are done with their sprint to 'change' before they no longer have their majorities.
 
kaa said:
Fennis said:
Chadstroma said:
Phurfur said:
I think 8-10% unemployment will be the norm in this country going forward.
Click to expand...
Well, as we continue to shape ourselves into a European type of country... that just may be right. However, I think that the American people are not one that would be 'ok' with it as the Europeans are. They will demand real 'change' for a 'hope' to bettering the employment numbers. As each day goes by, regardless of whether it is 'right' or 'wrong', Obama owns the economy more and more in the eyes of the electorate. We will already see a bloodbath in Congress and there is real anger out there. It could just possibly lead to real change for this country by forcing the Democrats out and the Republicans to actually act like Republicans.
Click to expand...
This belongs in the "This is Funny" thread.
Click to expand...
Its a process. We're never going to get real change until someone other than the democrats have a supermajority. That's when you start up the process of constitutional amendments and radical changes to reshape how this nation operates. And despite the 2008 election, we're closer to that goal than ever.
Click to expand...
It's amazing of how naive people are.
 
Chadstroma said:
Fennis said:
Chadstroma said:
Phurfur said:
I think 8-10% unemployment will be the norm in this country going forward.
Click to expand...
Well, as we continue to shape ourselves into a European type of country... that just may be right. However, I think that the American people are not one that would be 'ok' with it as the Europeans are. They will demand real 'change' for a 'hope' to bettering the employment numbers. As each day goes by, regardless of whether it is 'right' or 'wrong', Obama owns the economy more and more in the eyes of the electorate. We will already see a bloodbath in Congress and there is real anger out there. It could just possibly lead to real change for this country by forcing the Democrats out and the Republicans to actually act like Republicans.
Click to expand...
This belongs in the "This is Funny" thread.
Click to expand...
Really? Does the health care bill make us look more or less similar to a European country? You can argue that it is either a good thing or a bad thing to be more like a western European country like France in as much as quality of life etc. Those are valid arguments. However, these western socialist leaning European countries have historically had constant and consistent high unemployment. My point is simply that if we continue on the road we are on, we will end up with the same constant and consistent high unemployment rates. I do not see anything funny about that. You may, you may laugh at all the unemployed, but I don't. I am hoping that the rest of the system will be able to shrug off what is being done to it currently but I am not convinced that it will. Further, and more importantly, I am not sure that Pelosi, Reid and Obama are done with their sprint to 'change' before they no longer have their majorities.
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At what point do we get to take a nap in the afternoon?
 
44% of unemployed have been out of work six months or more

WASHINGTON — Despite recent job gains, one grim statistic casts a long shadow over the recovering economy and the futures of more than 6 million workers: Fully 44 percent of the nation's 15 million unemployed have been out of work for more than six months.

And evidence suggests many of them may never rebuild their working lives completely.

Never since the Great Depression has the U.S. labor market seen anything like it. The previous high in long-term unemployment was 26 percent in June 1983, just after the deep downturn of the early '80s. The 44 percent rate this year translates into more than 6.5 million people.

In fact, nearly two-thirds of these workers actually have been jobless for a year or longer, new Labor Department reports show.

"I'm particularly concerned about that statistic, because long spells of unemployment erode skills and lower the longer-term income and employment prospects of these workers," Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said in a Wednesday speech.

The hardships of workers are straining the nation's finances, too. In normal times, jobless workers can qualify for up to 26 weeks of state unemployment benefits. But the crisis of the past two years has prompted the federal government to help fund jobless benefits for up to 99 weeks in high-unemployment states, including Washington.

Congress is poised for yet another partisan showdown over the issue Monday when lawmakers return from a two-week recess. The Senate is scheduled to vote on whether to end debate on a measure that would further extend jobless benefits, subsidies for the COBRA health-insurance program and federal flood insurance through May 5. Because some Republicans want spending cuts elsewhere to offset the $9 billion price tag, Democrats will need at least one GOP supporter to get the 60 votes necessary to proceed.

Federal spending on unemployment benefits could reach $168 billion this year, five times the level in the years just before the recession, according to a report from Pew Charitable Trusts. Tens of billions more are being spent for food assistance to unemployed workers and their families.

At the same time, government revenues have fallen as Social Security, payroll and other tax receipts have shriveled with fewer jobs and lower earnings. That's contributed to massive fiscal problems in many states. California already owes the federal government about $7 billion for unemployment-benefit loans and is getting deeper in the hole by the week.

"It's really killing the deficit," said David Card, an economics professor at the University of California, Berkeley, which has made cuts in faculty pay and course selections.

The rise in long-term unemployment — coupled with economists' projections of a slow jobs recovery — mean the toll to individual and government budgets is likely to persist for some time. Labor Department figures suggest there are 5.5 unemployed workers today for each job opening, compared with two job seekers for every opening in 2007.

The problem has another, less direct impact as well: Since many of the long-term unemployed are older workers, some will have little choice but to retire earlier than planned — which means more people drawing Social Security and Medicare, and fewer contributing to the programs through payroll taxes.

As in previous downturns, a large share of long-term unemployed are in manufacturing and construction.

But most workers who have been jobless for 27 weeks or more are in sales, office and other service-industry jobs, including more than 1 million in management and professional occupations.

Some economists doubt that workers in general would lose skills after only six months or even a year or two out of work. But there's widespread agreement that — for whatever reasons — long periods of unemployment tend to make it tougher to get re-employed.

And even after getting hired, such workers are likely to experience a sharp and lasting hit to their incomes.

In one prominent study, Columbia University economist Till von Wachter examined the pay history of workers who lost their jobs during the early 1980s recession. Using Social Security earnings records, von Wachter and co-researchers found that these previously stable workers sustained a 20 percent drop in earnings after 10 years of losing their jobs, compared with other workers who weren't let go during that period.

For the laid-off group, the income losses didn't fade away completely even 20 years later.

The Senate failed to agree on an extension in unemployment benefits in late March, after Republicans rejected an attempt to expedite the measure's passage. As a result, more than 200,000 unemployed people who had exhausted their states' jobless benefits could not apply for additional benefits from the federal program beginning last Monday, according to estimates by the National Employment Law Project, a liberal advocacy group.

Democrats note that they easily moved an extension through the House and were primed to do the same in the Senate before Republicans, led by Sen. Tom Coburn, R-Okla., stood in the way.

Republicans respond that they're not opposed to extending unemployment benefits but want to offset the cost. Sen. Jim Bunning, R-Ky., made the same argument when he led the GOP's stand against a previous extension in early March. That blockade lasted five days and drew national attention, much of it unfavorable to Bunning and his party.

Jim Manley, a spokesman for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., noted that unemployment insurance often has been treated as emergency spending, and that many economists believe such benefits have a stimulative effect that would be muffled if offset with spending cuts elsewhere.

But Coburn, long a leader of the Senate's fiscal hawks, said the political winds are shifting in his favor. "We can't wait anymore," he said. "Every day we don't start taking care of this problem makes it worse."

Coburn vowed to try to block any spending bill the rest of the year that isn't offset, which will include the $33 billion supplemental measure the Pentagon has requested for the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. While unlikely to succeed in blocking the military measure, Coburn said he hopes his stand draws increased attention to the deficit issue.
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Statorama said:
44% of unemployed have been out of work six months or more

WASHINGTON — Despite recent job gains, one grim statistic casts a long shadow over the recovering economy and the futures of more than 6 million workers: Fully 44 percent of the nation's 15 million unemployed have been out of work for more than six months.

And evidence suggests many of them may never rebuild their working lives completely.
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This is indeed an extremely grim statistic.
 
bigbottom said:
Statorama said:
44% of unemployed have been out of work six months or more

WASHINGTON — Despite recent job gains, one grim statistic casts a long shadow over the recovering economy and the futures of more than 6 million workers: Fully 44 percent of the nation's 15 million unemployed have been out of work for more than six months.

And evidence suggests many of them may never rebuild their working lives completely.
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This is indeed an extremely grim statistic.
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If you are employed in a field like carpentry or some other craft best utilized by the housing boom, then you most likely will not in the foreseeable future be able to garner the type of money you once did.Sadly many of these people now are having to readjust to lives of less affluentness.

 
Still waiting for that glimmer of hope for Tampa Bay, but a sustained 13% is not so good. This does not factor in the increased foreclosure rate.

 
bigbottom said:
Statorama said:
44% of unemployed have been out of work six months or more

WASHINGTON — Despite recent job gains, one grim statistic casts a long shadow over the recovering economy and the futures of more than 6 million workers: Fully 44 percent of the nation's 15 million unemployed have been out of work for more than six months.

And evidence suggests many of them may never rebuild their working lives completely.
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This is indeed an extremely grim statistic.
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At least they are getting slightly larger tax returns! Turns out if you have withholding from your paycheck for two months as if you'll be working all year, then lose your job, you're not in as high a tax bracket as you were before, so, you get money from the govmint. Bright side!

 
videoguy505 said:
At least they are getting slightly larger tax returns! Turns out if you have withholding from your paycheck for two months as if you'll be working all year, then lose your job, you're not in as high a tax bracket as you were before, so, you get YOUR money BACK from the govmint. Bright side!
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With no interest. There's your bright side. :ninja:
 
videoguy505 said:
Statorama said:
At what point will the AP no longer be surprised by jobless claims?

Initial jobless claims increase unexpectedly
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Reuters surprised too.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly soared last week as applications held back during the Easter holiday were processed, government data showed on Thursday.
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Well... The expectation was a decline to correct for the Easter increase, but that didn't happen. The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims has been falling quite nicely since January of last year until about January of this year. It's pretty much been holding steady for the last few months. We're still down about 30% off the peak of initial unemployment claims though. Things aren't great right now, but the sky isn't falling anymore either.
 
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