SanAntonioHolmes
Footballguy
OSU +9 -110(1x)
Florida +3.5 -110(1x)
Florida +3.5 -110(1x)
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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
modogg
Footballguy
tailed 'em all, let's give it a goBuddy just played a $200 5-team, pays 4+ grand. Like I said, he's hit 3 of these types of late (for about 20K total).Just missed on some others too...
Colorado
Drake
Kansas State
Purdue
Hofstra
First two are his strongest plays. Personally, I took Colorado straight, that's it for me...
. thanks.MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Jets down to 7 at most places. I would try to find a 7' if you like them. It is still at SB.
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Keep posting.BRONG said:Buddy just played a $200 5-team, pays 4+ grand. Like I said, he's hit 3 of these types of late (for about 20K total).Just missed on some others too...
Colorado
Drake
Kansas State
Purdue
Hofstra
First two are his strongest plays. Personally, I took Colorado straight, that's it for me...
BRONG
FOR A LIMITED TIME ONLY
"by"i did a rr by 3,4,5BRONG said:Buddy just played a $200 5-team, pays 4+ grand. Like I said, he's hit 3 of these types of late (for about 20K total).Just missed on some others too...
Colorado
Drake
Kansas State
Purdue
Hofstra
First two are his strongest plays. Personally, I took Colorado straight, that's it for me...
Will do.
BRONG
FOR A LIMITED TIME ONLY
I like them as well, but waiting for some reason. Also waiting on Dallas, hoping to get 3 obviously. Also like Indy. All picks were pretty easy decisions, for me anyway...Really wanted to fade the Jets in the playoffs, but I like their matchup so much, I'm going to bet them. And if there's one place on the road that Sanchez might be fine in, it's Southern Cal. I shouldn't have waited on this one...Raider Nation said:
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
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Insoxicated
Following
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
I really don't like New Orleans but I bet them at -6' -120 on Sunday. This is a good matchup for them and they should be able to move the ball at will against the Cards. I think they win by 2 tds.Raider Nation said:
lumpy19
Footballguy
You don't think the best postseason QB ever will be able to move the ball at will against NO?
culdeus
Footballguy
So I'm headed to Vegas with my boys and I'm usually the "NFL Guy" so sent this email to let them know what I'm thinking. Not that we have to be on the same side, but it usually works out that way.
ari/no - I think take the points here for the game or else tease no with virtually any other team on the board either way. This feels like a 3-6 point NO win to me and with Rackers getting the shanks I can see those points coming into play. ML has no value in my eyes because of shankopottomus. Any 2H total that's 24 or under gets uncorked on. Big. really 26.5 is in play for something of consequence. Live betting would be hoping for no scoring for 8-10 minutes then come in with a depressed game total number, but that's somewhat unlikely.
ind/bal - I say just lay it and don't look back. Line coming down some and might be 6 by this weekend. Of all the tanking teams indy had the most to gain by tanking and letting their DL heal up. Flacco is not good. This might get very out of hand. Like 20+ points out of hand. All live betting will be attempting to buy IND ML cheap if the game starts slow.
dal/min - Like Dal up and down but not huge really unless Saturday goes well. Line might go to 3 and at 3 I'm a little more interested at 3. Interested somewhat in the Under, but not enough to really do it unless I get funding from an early morning dice run. If we were back in Dallas I probably wouldn't bet this at all. Will look to the under in live betting if things look to be bogged down, but not serious about this game.
sd/nyj - After waiting on sd to play ne/cin I was pretty pissed to see them get jets. Now I think the Jets not only cover but win. I just don't get why people want to crown this SD team. They can't run the ball at all and Revis should be able to take out VJAX. Can Rivers to Gates win a playoff game? Really? I'll take a shot with them on the ML and might consider teasing them with Dal as well if I can get the jets to 14 but the way things are moving this is very unlikely. Some onlines had this at 9 recently, but public seems to be getting on board with the jets. I'm beginning to think this is my best game of the weekend which usually ends horribly. Full disclosure would require me to announce I have SD to win AFC and SB at very high prices, but I'm just not feeling it.
All four games have good teaser plays really in them. (NO, IND, DAL, SD) Teaser plays also make in-running middles for sequentially scheduled games lots of fun if you've never done in-running before.
ari/no - I think take the points here for the game or else tease no with virtually any other team on the board either way. This feels like a 3-6 point NO win to me and with Rackers getting the shanks I can see those points coming into play. ML has no value in my eyes because of shankopottomus. Any 2H total that's 24 or under gets uncorked on. Big. really 26.5 is in play for something of consequence. Live betting would be hoping for no scoring for 8-10 minutes then come in with a depressed game total number, but that's somewhat unlikely.
ind/bal - I say just lay it and don't look back. Line coming down some and might be 6 by this weekend. Of all the tanking teams indy had the most to gain by tanking and letting their DL heal up. Flacco is not good. This might get very out of hand. Like 20+ points out of hand. All live betting will be attempting to buy IND ML cheap if the game starts slow.
dal/min - Like Dal up and down but not huge really unless Saturday goes well. Line might go to 3 and at 3 I'm a little more interested at 3. Interested somewhat in the Under, but not enough to really do it unless I get funding from an early morning dice run. If we were back in Dallas I probably wouldn't bet this at all. Will look to the under in live betting if things look to be bogged down, but not serious about this game.
sd/nyj - After waiting on sd to play ne/cin I was pretty pissed to see them get jets. Now I think the Jets not only cover but win. I just don't get why people want to crown this SD team. They can't run the ball at all and Revis should be able to take out VJAX. Can Rivers to Gates win a playoff game? Really? I'll take a shot with them on the ML and might consider teasing them with Dal as well if I can get the jets to 14 but the way things are moving this is very unlikely. Some onlines had this at 9 recently, but public seems to be getting on board with the jets. I'm beginning to think this is my best game of the weekend which usually ends horribly. Full disclosure would require me to announce I have SD to win AFC and SB at very high prices, but I'm just not feeling it.
All four games have good teaser plays really in them. (NO, IND, DAL, SD) Teaser plays also make in-running middles for sequentially scheduled games lots of fun if you've never done in-running before.
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Insoxicated
I agree with everything except I like to tease ARI to +14 instead of working NO down. NO has lost a ton of momentum and ARI will likely use Hightower/Wells to slow things down, then play action / go deep to Fitz/Boldin/Breaston. I just have trouble seeing the Cards getting blown out of the water here.
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lumpy19
Footballguy
7 pt tease? who do you pair them with in a 7 point tease? in the 3 other games a 6 pt tease is all you need
cosjobs
Footballguy
You have grown sons? I thought you were much younger.
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Culdeus,
AZ/NO game - you won't see a 24 2h total. 1h line is 28', the 2h line will be about the same. Unless of course we get an injury to a qb.
Jets line already somewhat gone. Line is 7 everywhere now and just +250 on the ML. +274 at Matchbook though.
I don't see any very favorable teaser lines except Dallas. And even so, 3 can be had for -115 or -120.
Why tease NO with a total of 57, the more pts scored and higher the total the less points are actually worth in the game. Chargers are -7, just play on the ML.
Colts will be -6, no sense in teasing. If you like a teaser with them, just play ML parlays with the Saints and Chargers and you will win more. A ML parlay on Sportsbook right now with all 3 teams pays out +153. I'm sure better prices can be had and you can get this thing up to +170 and you don't have to worry about wins by just a pt.
I personally wouldn't go teaser crazy with these games. Dallas is a strong leg I will give you that, so if you don't want to bet them at 3 -115/-120 then teasing is fine. But, I think RR teasers on these would not be optimal.
Just my two cents.
AZ/NO game - you won't see a 24 2h total. 1h line is 28', the 2h line will be about the same. Unless of course we get an injury to a qb.
Jets line already somewhat gone. Line is 7 everywhere now and just +250 on the ML. +274 at Matchbook though.
I don't see any very favorable teaser lines except Dallas. And even so, 3 can be had for -115 or -120.
Why tease NO with a total of 57, the more pts scored and higher the total the less points are actually worth in the game. Chargers are -7, just play on the ML.
Colts will be -6, no sense in teasing. If you like a teaser with them, just play ML parlays with the Saints and Chargers and you will win more. A ML parlay on Sportsbook right now with all 3 teams pays out +153. I'm sure better prices can be had and you can get this thing up to +170 and you don't have to worry about wins by just a pt.
I personally wouldn't go teaser crazy with these games. Dallas is a strong leg I will give you that, so if you don't want to bet them at 3 -115/-120 then teasing is fine. But, I think RR teasers on these would not be optimal.
Just my two cents.
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
7 pt tease? who do you pair them with in a 7 point tease? in the 3 other games a 6 pt tease is all you need
And with 3 team teasers in some book ties = loss so you need to get on the other side of 14 anyway.14 points in a game lines at 57 is not worth as much as you may think.
cosjobs
Footballguy
"by"i did a rr by 3,4,5BRONG said:Buddy just played a $200 5-team, pays 4+ grand. Like I said, he's hit 3 of these types of late (for about 20K total).
Colorado
Drake
Kansas State
Purdue
Hofstra
First two are his strongest plays. Personally, I took Colorado straight, that's it for me...
round robin by (using all combinations of) 3 teams, 4 teams and 5 teamsMarshallPlan
Footballguy
I love sd -180 to not win the afc. Loading up.
culdeus
Footballguy
SanAntonioHolmes
Footballguy
Uconn -6.5 -110(1x)
St. Joes +15 -110 (1x)
St. Joes +15 -110 (1x)
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Insoxicated
ARI +14NYJ +147 pt tease? who do you pair them with in a 7 point tease? in the 3 other games a 6 pt tease is all you need
Both lines are at 7 at SB.
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
culdeus, good points and I would agree with your responses.
Icon, I don't like teasing just to tease. If you like the Jets and Cards just bet them +7. Teasing them would turn the wager -EV, imo.
Leans this weekend:
Saints/Under - Under will be a big bet.
Colts
Jets
Dallas
Probably on the Unders as we will probably get some line value with all the WC games going Over. I know Saints Under is a good bet!!!
Icon, I don't like teasing just to tease. If you like the Jets and Cards just bet them +7. Teasing them would turn the wager -EV, imo.
Leans this weekend:
Saints/Under - Under will be a big bet.
Colts
Jets
Dallas
Probably on the Unders as we will probably get some line value with all the WC games going Over. I know Saints Under is a good bet!!!
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
So these plays are simply teams that have been hit so far?Raider Nation said:The overnight line move went in favor of Penn (opened getting 19.5 .. down to 18), so I'm off the Temple play. I did the same thing last night. Backed his winning Drake/Colorado plays, but got off of his Hofstra play because all the overnight $ was on VCU. For whatever reason, the overnight moves have been hitting beautifully lately.Here are those moves for today, and the teams you should take:Here's Tony G's picks for tomorrow:
$200 7-team
Mich St
VaTech
LaSalle
Temple
TTech
NCar
Nevada
He bought some points on a few, don't know why he does that (knows it's dumb), but whatever...
Straight plays (stronger picks):
Temple
TTech
NCar
ODU
Charlotte
Ill. State
SMU
Penn
WV
Drexel
Toledo
Delaware
Ga. State
Rutgers
Iowa State
UMass
Strongest plays bolded.
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
There is so much analysis that has to go into this. You are following steam which in the longrun is very tough to win doing unless you are getting pretty much getting the same lines or these steam plays hit at 55% and above. Are you shopping around trying to copy this steam and get the opening lines? Are you yourself beating the closing line as well? If not, you have just hit a good run. Has there been buyback leaving you with a worse number then the closing number?Raider Nation said:Basically. I've made a profit four of the past five CBB days doing this. That's just a minority of what I play though. Since I got DETROYED by the Pats, I decided to go back to my bread and butter, which is slow and steady on 2H plays on college hoops and NBA. Sooooo many good 2H betting opportunities in hoops, it's ridiculous. Anyone can manage a profit betting only 2nd halves with a little discipline.So these plays are simply teams that have been hit so far?Raider Nation said:The overnight line move went in favor of Penn (opened getting 19.5 .. down to 18), so I'm off the Temple play. I did the same thing last night. Backed his winning Drake/Colorado plays, but got off of his Hofstra play because all the overnight $ was on VCU. For whatever reason, the overnight moves have been hitting beautifully lately.Here are those moves for today, and the teams you should take:Here's Tony G's picks for tomorrow:
$200 7-team
Mich St
VaTech
LaSalle
Temple
TTech
NCar
Nevada
He bought some points on a few, don't know why he does that (knows it's dumb), but whatever...
Straight plays (stronger picks):
Temple
TTech
NCar
ODU
Charlotte
Ill. State
SMU
Penn
WV
Drexel
Toledo
Delaware
Ga. State
Rutgers
Iowa State
UMass
Strongest plays bolded.
I think you have to ask yourself the question why is each game moving? Injuries, bad opener, who knows.
Also, what time are these hit? Overnight? Mornings?
What is your 2h theory of betting?
BRONG
FOR A LIMITED TIME ONLY
Yeah, I know what a round robin is, it was why/how you typed the "by 3,4,5" part that I don't get. Is that shorthand for internet gamblers? And what did you profit?"by"i did a rr by 3,4,5Buddy just played a $200 5-team, pays 4+ grand. Like I said, he's hit 3 of these types of late (for about 20K total).
Colorado
Drake
Kansas State
Purdue
Hofstra
First two are his strongest plays. Personally, I took Colorado straight, that's it for me...
BRONG
FOR A LIMITED TIME ONLY
I put my plays in last night. RR with VTech (switched out Temple), TTech, and NCar. Along with a straight bet on TTech. That's it for me...Raider Nation said:The overnight line move went in favor of Penn (opened getting 19.5 .. down to 18), so I'm off the Temple play. I did the same thing last night. Backed his winning Drake/Colorado plays, but got off of his Hofstra play because all the overnight $ was on VCU. For whatever reason, the overnight moves have been hitting beautifully lately.Here are those moves for today, and the teams you should take:Here's Tony G's picks for tomorrow:
$200 7-team
Mich St
VaTech
LaSalle
Temple
TTech
NCar
Nevada
He bought some points on a few, don't know why he does that (knows it's dumb), but whatever...
Straight plays (stronger picks):
Temple
TTech
NCar
ODU
Charlotte
Ill. State
SMU
Penn
WV
Drexel
Toledo
Delaware
Ga. State
Rutgers
Iowa State
UMass
Strongest plays bolded.
TheWick
Footballguy
I'll give it a shot. This is the healthiest the Saints have been since Greer went out (around week 8 IIRC). They're entire defensive backfield has been banged up for the 2nd half of the season, and everyone is back and healthy save Charles Grant, who is having a very subpar year.Sure, they started out 13-0 and lost 3 straight. Throw out the last game b/c no starters played. They were a missed FG at the buzzer away from beating Tampa....in a game were they hardly tried and were extremely conservative (un-Peyton like). In the loss to Dallas, the hottest team in the NFC over thepast 6 week, they only lost by 7 points and ralliedfrom down 21-3. The healthy defense is the most critical piece to this puzzle. Greg Williams is an aggresive DC.....he hasn't been able to be aggresive in the last quarter of the season b/c of the injuries. We all saw Warner throw 5 TDs last week....he can just as easily throw 5 picks if he gets rattled.....and I think the NOLA defense will rattle him.Throw all that on top of the fact that Zona defense can't stop anything.......that's why the Saints are favored by 7.I have a few teases involving the saints, plus I parlayed -7/u56.5
cosjobs
Footballguy
What kind of RR? by 2s? 3s? 4s? 5s? etcLast night I bet 160 and got 70 back, so I lost 90I put my plays in last night. RR with VTech (switched out Temple), TTech, and NCar. Along with a straight bet on TTech. That's it for me...Raider Nation said:The overnight line move went in favor of Penn (opened getting 19.5 .. down to 18), so I'm off the Temple play. I did the same thing last night. Backed his winning Drake/Colorado plays, but got off of his Hofstra play because all the overnight $ was on VCU. For whatever reason, the overnight moves have been hitting beautifully lately.Here are those moves for today, and the teams you should take:Here's Tony G's picks for tomorrow:
$200 7-team
Mich St
VaTech
LaSalle
Temple
TTech
NCar
Nevada
He bought some points on a few, don't know why he does that (knows it's dumb), but whatever...
Straight plays (stronger picks):
Temple
TTech
NCar
ODU
Charlotte
Ill. State
SMU
Penn
WV
Drexel
Toledo
Delaware
Ga. State
Rutgers
Iowa State
UMass
Strongest plays bolded.
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
Exactly the up and down 1q that we needed and apparently Andre is sleeping. Only starter on either team to not score, 1 shot attempt....wake up Iggy!
lets go Andre SanAntonioHolmes
Footballguy
Iowa State +8 -110(1x)
cosjobs
Footballguy
it always seemed to me that that would be a productive strategy, but I never tracked it.Raider Nation said:Sorry guys, had to go out. Re: 2nd half strategy:Great example of what I look for happened Monday night. Murray State was favored by 16. They were LOSING by 4 at the half. 2H line was Murray St. -11, so essentially the new "game line" was 7. Sign me up. They ended up coming pretty close to covering the initial spread as it is. Just make sure no key players got hurt in the 1H.First wave of CBB halftimes coming up right now.
TheWick
Footballguy
Apparently he just wants to chuck 3's all night and not make ANY OF THEM :(Exactly the up and down 1q that we needed and apparently Andre is sleeping. Only starter on either team to not score, 1 shot attempt....wake up Iggy!I accidently triple dipped on the Iguodala play...damn iphone :(lets go Andre
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
Iverson and Dalembert playing hi-low, he's chucking whenever he gets his hands on the ball.Apparently he just wants to chuck 3's all night and not make ANY OF THEM :(Exactly the up and down 1q that we needed and apparently Andre is sleeping. Only starter on either team to not score, 1 shot attempt....wake up Iggy!I accidently triple dipped on the Iguodala play...damn iphone :(lets go Andre
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
I always go the other way. There is a reason why the underdog is winning the game. Most games, they are simply playing better and it's tough to simply "turn it around."Did you bet Pats 2h bets last weekend against Balt? Ohio State vs Oregon in the Rose Bowl. I always think the opposite way, but I have never done it in college hoops, so maybe it works there. You would think the line value would be with the underdog team winning, no?Raider - any thoughts on my steam post today? We can take this PM if you want.it always seemed to me that that would be a productive strategy, but I never tracked it.Raider Nation said:Sorry guys, had to go out. Re: 2nd half strategy:Great example of what I look for happened Monday night. Murray State was favored by 16. They were LOSING by 4 at the half. 2H line was Murray St. -11, so essentially the new "game line" was 7. Sign me up. They ended up coming pretty close to covering the initial spread as it is. Just make sure no key players got hurt in the 1H.First wave of CBB halftimes coming up right now.
cosjobs
Footballguy
I would think it would work better in basketball, since the players can heat up and cool off so quickly.I would participate in tracking it, but would prefer to view the results someone else compiled.I always go the other way. There is a reason why the underdog is winning the game. Most games, they are simply playing better and it's tough to simply "turn it around."Did you bet Pats 2h bets last weekend against Balt? Ohio State vs Oregon in the Rose Bowl. I always think the opposite way, but I have never done it in college hoops, so maybe it works there. You would think the line value would be with the underdog team winning, no?Raider - any thoughts on my steam post today? We can take this PM if you want.it always seemed to me that that would be a productive strategy, but I never tracked it.Raider Nation said:Sorry guys, had to go out. Re: 2nd half strategy:Great example of what I look for happened Monday night. Murray State was favored by 16. They were LOSING by 4 at the half. 2H line was Murray St. -11, so essentially the new "game line" was 7. Sign me up. They ended up coming pretty close to covering the initial spread as it is. Just make sure no key players got hurt in the 1H.First wave of CBB halftimes coming up right now.
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
I mean what would constitute a play? I know we all look for value in sports betting. All I can see the average joe thinking is the Celtics are -12 to the Nets and are down by 6 at half. I can play them -10 for the 2h and all they have to do is win by 5? Doesn't that seem too easy or too typical?I would think it would work better in basketball, since the players can heat up and cool off so quickly.I would participate in tracking it, but would prefer to view the results someone else compiled.I always go the other way. There is a reason why the underdog is winning the game. Most games, they are simply playing better and it's tough to simply "turn it around."Did you bet Pats 2h bets last weekend against Balt? Ohio State vs Oregon in the Rose Bowl. I always think the opposite way, but I have never done it in college hoops, so maybe it works there. You would think the line value would be with the underdog team winning, no?Raider - any thoughts on my steam post today? We can take this PM if you want.it always seemed to me that that would be a productive strategy, but I never tracked it.Raider Nation said:Sorry guys, had to go out. Re: 2nd half strategy:Great example of what I look for happened Monday night. Murray State was favored by 16. They were LOSING by 4 at the half. 2H line was Murray St. -11, so essentially the new "game line" was 7. Sign me up. They ended up coming pretty close to covering the initial spread as it is. Just make sure no key players got hurt in the 1H.First wave of CBB halftimes coming up right now.
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
NFL thoughts.
Saints/Cards - TF summed it up pretty well a few posts ago. I don't follow the Saints like he does, so I will talk about the other side. Cards looked great on offense against GB. Warner was incredible, but in all honestly GB played terrible on defense. I could have made some of those throws. Anyway, I think going in the dome with a timing offense who can't run the ball all that well is tough.
Greg Williams will come after Warner and try to pressure him and I think they will. Saints will spread the Cards out and Brees will have a good day. I lean 2h Under here right out of the gates. With a lead, AZ or NO will try to sit on the ball and keep the other offense off the field. Heck, they will be doing this the entire game. I really like the Under here. Under with totals over 50 were 16-7-1 in the reg season. 48 or higher: 162-122-6, 57.0% since 1989 and 62-35-2, 63.9% since 2005.
Dallas/Minny - won't get into this game much, but the winner here represents the NFC in the SB I think. Dallas is peaking we all know that and I am not giving Minny any credit at all for running up the score in week 17 against nyg. I think +3 is a good bet here.
Indy/Balt - once again, I think this line is too small and we are giving the Ravens too much credit for the win over NE. I have never seen NE play that bad, they were terrible. Sure we need to give Balt credit, but Brady looked bad, Moss the same. Let's not crown the Ravens yet, the same Ravens who were battling with Oakland in week 17 just to get in. The Colts have an underrated defense and I think they will play well.
I just look at Balt's corners and we don't see Revis, McCalister, etc. We see Chris Carr and Dominique Foxworth. And no Webb who was playing very well for Balt. The Raven corners didn't have to play that well last week, NE played very poorly. I don't think the Colts will play as bad as NE did. Colts -6 looks like a fine bet.
Jets/Chargers - my favorite game. We have the Chargers who everyone has crowned as the champion. They can't run the ball yet have a very potent passing attack, haven't we seen this script before? It was laughable late in the season when it was evident SD was really trying to run the ball yet they still couldn't. So all the sudden a one dimensional team plays the Jets defense. It will be interesting to see what Revis' job is. I have a funny feeling we don't see him man to man on Jackson the whole game. I think Ryan lets him play more zone and make plays. In fairness, SD doesn't need Jackson as they have more weapons then him.
I think this game is won on the other side of the ball. It was not long ago when the Chargers had some trouble stopping the run and I think we will see that problem here. The Jets impressed me a lot the last 2 weeks not in the yards so much they ran for, but how they did it. It was as if Cincy knew what was coming but simply could not stop it. The Jets o-line is that good. Brad Smith also brings an element of surprise to this offense which is a good thing. He is a great dual threat and yet another thing you have to gameplan for. I know the Jets like Baltimore snuck into the playoffs, but this SD matchup is much better for them then Indy. I really like their chances. I played some +7' -110. Maybe play some 1h, ML, and others. I think Chargers not to win afc -180 is a great bet. We get the Jets this week then Indy -4 or Balt +4 next week.
Saints/Cards - TF summed it up pretty well a few posts ago. I don't follow the Saints like he does, so I will talk about the other side. Cards looked great on offense against GB. Warner was incredible, but in all honestly GB played terrible on defense. I could have made some of those throws. Anyway, I think going in the dome with a timing offense who can't run the ball all that well is tough.
Greg Williams will come after Warner and try to pressure him and I think they will. Saints will spread the Cards out and Brees will have a good day. I lean 2h Under here right out of the gates. With a lead, AZ or NO will try to sit on the ball and keep the other offense off the field. Heck, they will be doing this the entire game. I really like the Under here. Under with totals over 50 were 16-7-1 in the reg season. 48 or higher: 162-122-6, 57.0% since 1989 and 62-35-2, 63.9% since 2005.
Dallas/Minny - won't get into this game much, but the winner here represents the NFC in the SB I think. Dallas is peaking we all know that and I am not giving Minny any credit at all for running up the score in week 17 against nyg. I think +3 is a good bet here.
Indy/Balt - once again, I think this line is too small and we are giving the Ravens too much credit for the win over NE. I have never seen NE play that bad, they were terrible. Sure we need to give Balt credit, but Brady looked bad, Moss the same. Let's not crown the Ravens yet, the same Ravens who were battling with Oakland in week 17 just to get in. The Colts have an underrated defense and I think they will play well.
I just look at Balt's corners and we don't see Revis, McCalister, etc. We see Chris Carr and Dominique Foxworth. And no Webb who was playing very well for Balt. The Raven corners didn't have to play that well last week, NE played very poorly. I don't think the Colts will play as bad as NE did. Colts -6 looks like a fine bet.
Jets/Chargers - my favorite game. We have the Chargers who everyone has crowned as the champion. They can't run the ball yet have a very potent passing attack, haven't we seen this script before? It was laughable late in the season when it was evident SD was really trying to run the ball yet they still couldn't. So all the sudden a one dimensional team plays the Jets defense. It will be interesting to see what Revis' job is. I have a funny feeling we don't see him man to man on Jackson the whole game. I think Ryan lets him play more zone and make plays. In fairness, SD doesn't need Jackson as they have more weapons then him.
I think this game is won on the other side of the ball. It was not long ago when the Chargers had some trouble stopping the run and I think we will see that problem here. The Jets impressed me a lot the last 2 weeks not in the yards so much they ran for, but how they did it. It was as if Cincy knew what was coming but simply could not stop it. The Jets o-line is that good. Brad Smith also brings an element of surprise to this offense which is a good thing. He is a great dual threat and yet another thing you have to gameplan for. I know the Jets like Baltimore snuck into the playoffs, but this SD matchup is much better for them then Indy. I really like their chances. I played some +7' -110. Maybe play some 1h, ML, and others. I think Chargers not to win afc -180 is a great bet. We get the Jets this week then Indy -4 or Balt +4 next week.
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cosjobs
Footballguy
Maybe set some kind of formula- where a 6 pt or more favorite is losing at halftime and the 2h wager is 30% or less of original line?I mean what would constitute a play? I know we all look for value in sports betting. All I can see the average joe thinking is the Celtics are -12 to the Nets and are down by 6 at half. I can play them -10 for the 2h and all they have to do is win by 5? Doesn't that seem too easy or too typical?I would think it would work better in basketball, since the players can heat up and cool off so quickly.I would participate in tracking it, but would prefer to view the results someone else compiled.I always go the other way. There is a reason why the underdog is winning the game. Most games, they are simply playing better and it's tough to simply "turn it around."Did you bet Pats 2h bets last weekend against Balt? Ohio State vs Oregon in the Rose Bowl. I always think the opposite way, but I have never done it in college hoops, so maybe it works there. You would think the line value would be with the underdog team winning, no?Raider - any thoughts on my steam post today? We can take this PM if you want.it always seemed to me that that would be a productive strategy, but I never tracked it.Raider Nation said:Sorry guys, had to go out. Re: 2nd half strategy:Great example of what I look for happened Monday night. Murray State was favored by 16. They were LOSING by 4 at the half. 2H line was Murray St. -11, so essentially the new "game line" was 7. Sign me up. They ended up coming pretty close to covering the initial spread as it is. Just make sure no key players got hurt in the 1H.First wave of CBB halftimes coming up right now.
John Bender
Footballguy
Danny Granger pops a 3 with 1:45 to go and his team up 9 points.
####### idiot is on my #### list.
unreal. The 2 and 3 timers are eating me alive this week...
####### idiot is on my #### list.
unreal. The 2 and 3 timers are eating me alive this week...
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
At SB. Felix Jones ov 58' rush yds -115.
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Here's another funny one. Vincent Jackson o/u 50' rec yds. Just an unreal number - he went over that number in all but 3 gms this year. 12-3. Does Revis matchup or doesn't he? Even so, Jackson is their deep play threat and very well might get behind Revis once.
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
Or 42.5 at Carib.......
