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***Official Jays Thread*** Lots of optimism, again. (3 Viewers)

:tfp:

Get rid of Jansen and Oliver. If you can get anything for <insert starters name>, JP, Izturis or Bonifacio get rid of them.

Lock up Rasmus for 4-5 years and try to get something for Gose.

 
Doctor Detroit said:
I wonder what Skribbles would think if Reyes was taken out with a slide like that and ended up on the DL for a month? Clean slide and move on with the :thumbup: ?

Doubt it.
Reyes does a perfectly good job of hurting himself on his own slides

 
I'm shocked by how bad Josh Johnson is.
It really is amazing. You'd think it would be a no-brainer to qualify him this off-season but he's making it a real tough decision. Can't see anyone giving up a pick to sign him so is it worth it to bring him back for $14M next year? Since it isn't my money I'd say yes but AA is going to have a tough call. Don't qualify him, he returns to form, and you look terrible. Qualify him and he ####s the bed for another season and everyone says it was a stupid move.

 
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Bonifacio traded. Rajai Davis is way better in the OF/at the plate/on the bases. Kawasaki is better in the IF/at the plate/at being a fan favourite.

Obviously this is a lost season... Brett Lawrie looking good though.

Amazing how Josh Johnson has gone from a guy who the Jays thought they would lose to a $100+ million free agent contract to a guy they won't even get a draft pick for because they can't offer him a qualifying offer because he would obviously accept it. Tommy John likely in his future. He's really lost a hundred million dollars over the last 4 months.

 
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Fastest to 2 million fans in Toronto since 1997, largest per game increase in MLB, only averaging about 2k/game less than Boston, now imagine if this team wasn't a crippling disappointment.

 
Wow, no posts in here since August 15th... that seems about right.

My offseason wish list:

  • 2 New starting pitchers, one being a #2/3 starter, the other a proven durable innings eating type.
  • A new starting catcher, I don't care who, I can't handle another year of Arencibia awful OBP, worse defense, and total arrogance.
  • A second baseman who isn't Maicer Izturis
  • Do this while keeping core of Bautista/Edwin/Lawrie/Reyes/Rasmus, and SP prospects Stroman/Sanchez... anyone else in the organization can be up for grabs.
I'd be happy with a team of

C - Anyone but JPA

1B - Edwin

2B - veteran guy/Goins

3B - Lawrie

SS - Reyes

LF - Melky

CF - Rasmus

RF - Bautista

DH - Lind vs. RHP/Sierra or someone else vs. LHP

Rotation - Dickey/New #2/Buehrle/Morrow/New #5... AAA depth/Morrow injury replacements in Drabek/Nolin/Stroman/Redmond/McGowan/Hutchinson/Romero

Bullpen is ridiculously stacked, they will likely move some of those guys to fill other gaps, wouldn't be surprised to see a Janssen/Delabar/Cecil type (all stars, lol) traded...

 
Looks about right. Wouldn't mind seeing a DH platoon of Melky/Lind with Melky splitting time in LF with Sierra... provided Melky's legs come back to him. Lind shouldn't see any more than about 20 ABs vs Lefties.

Nice that there is going to be some competition/depth in the rotation, provided a bunch of them don't get shipped out for a legit starter.

 
My offseason wish list:

  • 2 New starting pitchers, one being a #2/3 starter, the other a proven durable innings eating type.
  • A new starting catcher, I don't care who, I can't handle another year of Arencibia awful OBP, worse defense, and total arrogance.
  • A second baseman who isn't Maicer Izturis
  • Do this while keeping core of Bautista/Edwin/Lawrie/Reyes/Rasmus, and SP prospects Stroman/Sanchez... anyone else in the organization can be up for grabs.
One down.

Dioner Navarro - career K% is 13.7% or roughly half of JPA's. He hit 300/365/492 last year in 266 appearances. Sounds like Thole will be his partner/Dickey's personal catcher.

There are lots of red flags around Navarro, inconsistency, past attitude problems, defense, but even if he's just a replacement level catcher he'll be a huge upgrade over Arencibia, who may go somewhere else and blossom now, but it was never going to happen in Toronto, and likely won't ever anywhere.

 
Navarro >>>>>>>>>> Arenstrikeout. Even if Navarro falls back to earth, he is still better than Arencibia on his best day.

 
Navarro >>>>>>>>>> Arenstrikeout. Even if Navarro falls back to earth, he is still better than Arencibia on his best day.
I don't think it's that clear of an upgrade. I'd rate Arencibia about a 40% chance of having a better 2014 season than Navarro.

 
Navarro >>>>>>>>>> Arenstrikeout. Even if Navarro falls back to earth, he is still better than Arencibia on his best day.
I don't think it's that clear of an upgrade. I'd rate Arencibia about a 40% chance of having a better 2014 season than Navarro.
I can't see any team giving JPA regular AB's. Maybe he'll do well as a lefty masher or something. His season last year was the worst I've ever seen by any player in every facet of the game, on and off the field.

 
Jays give up RP Brad Lincoln for C Eric Kratz and LHP Rob Rasmussen from Phillies.

Likely nothing for nothing. Lincoln was never going to make the Jays bullpen and is out of options, so get something for him now before you lose him for nothing. Kratz could beat out Thole as Navarro's time share partner. Most importantly, Kratz and Rasmussen both do have options, so at least if they don't make the team, they add to AAA depth.

 
Jays give up RP Brad Lincoln for C Eric Kratz and LHP Rob Rasmussen from Phillies.

Likely nothing for nothing. Lincoln was never going to make the Jays bullpen and is out of options, so get something for him now before you lose him for nothing. Kratz could beat out Thole as Navarro's time share partner. Most importantly, Kratz and Rasmussen both do have options, so at least if they don't make the team, they add to AAA depth.
At the time, I thought the Lincoln-Travis Snider trade could have been big for either franchise. I guess I was wrong

 
Stole this from a DJF Post:

in 129 big league games– the bulk of which have come in the last two seasons– Kratz has put up a .220/.281/.407. Horrible, yes, but he’s a catcher. And… uh… J.P. Arencibia’s best offensive season produced a .219/.282/.438 line. So… really not that awful...

in Arencibia’s best offensive season, as noted above, he was worth half a win over 486 plate appearances. With a very similar line for 417 plate appearances over his career, Kratz has been worth 1.8 wins.
 
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Stole this from a DJF Post:

in 129 big league games– the bulk of which have come in the last two seasons– Kratz has put up a .220/.281/.407. Horrible, yes, but he’s a catcher. And… uh… J.P. Arencibia’s best offensive season produced a .219/.282/.438 line. So… really not that awful...

in Arencibia’s best offensive season, as noted above, he was worth half a win over 486 plate appearances. With a very similar line for 417 plate appearances over his career, Kratz has been worth 1.8 wins.
Kratz had a nice little hot streak when he filled in for an injured Carlos Ruiz in August 2012. He came back to earth after that.

I wouldn't start planning the parade route just yet.

 
Kratz had a nice little hot streak when he filled in for an injured Carlos Ruiz in August 2012. He came back to earth after that.

I wouldn't start planning the parade route just yet.
No, it's much more an illustration of how terrible JPA was. Kratz likely starts in AAA unless he can prove quickly to be a better Dickey receiver (hah!) than Thole.

 
I don't think Santana would have been the final piece but the Blue Jays are allegedly a team built to contend now. Their rotation already had more than the usual number of question marks. Santana isn't the model of consistency but he has averaged 200 IP over the past six years.

The Blue Jays aren't a terrible team but they're still the worst team on paper in their division. They need some young pitchers to step up and not get hurt. Santana would have reduced this pressure a bit.

Their window is now, for whatever that's worth. They dealt their young talent for Reyes, Buehrle and their untradeable contracts. Their organization has no impact position players in sight of the bigs. If they don't do something this year, 2015 looks even bleaker in terms of dead money. I don't know how much further below 74-88 the bottom is but we might find out in 2015-16.

 
I don't think Santana would have been the final piece but the Blue Jays are allegedly a team built to contend now. Their rotation already had more than the usual number of question marks. Santana isn't the model of consistency but he has averaged 200 IP over the past six years.

The Blue Jays aren't a terrible team but they're still the worst team on paper in their division. They need some young pitchers to step up and not get hurt. Santana would have reduced this pressure a bit.

Their window is now, for whatever that's worth. They dealt their young talent for Reyes, Buehrle and their untradeable contracts. Their organization has no impact position players in sight of the bigs. If they don't do something this year, 2015 looks even bleaker in terms of dead money. I don't know how much further below 74-88 the bottom is but we might find out in 2015-16.
The only thing I'll disagree on here is dead money. The only one on the team with any firm commitment beyond 2015 is Reyes. The Dickey/Bautista/Encarnacion/Lind/Morrow/Santos deals all have team options, so if they suck beyond 2014/2015 there's not much sunk cost and right now all 5 of those players are on deals at or below market value IMO. The only "bad" contracts are the two they acquired from Miami - Reyes and Buerhle. Reyes' 22 million in 2016 and 2017 will be a pill to swallow, but shouldn't cripple a team with a $120 million payroll.

The other side is because so many contracts expire after 2015, there's no excuse not to build around this core of players now. The offense and bullpen are both up to AL East standards, the starting pitching isn't even close.

 
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Anthopolous seems to think he had a deal done with Santana on Saturday, still could be more fallout from this whole mess.

In terms of Jays news, in case anyone is looking for deep fantasy stuff:

J.A. Happ no longer guaranteed the 4th starter spot, and is injured. Anthopolous on the radio this morning actually made it sound like Drew Hutchison has all but secured the 4th starter spot. Happ would be the favourite for the #5 spot if healthy. Ricky Romero has now given up 1 run through 7 innings in spring and is still a dark horse candidate to make the team, but he was taken off the 40-man last year, so he would have to be added back on. Sounds like Stroman is likely AAA bound.

Looks like Kratz will beat Thole for the backup catcher job.

Casey Janssen says he'll be ready for the start of the season, but people around the team don't sound as sure, start hiding Santoses.

 
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McGowan and Hutchison winning rotation spots is the best the Jays could have hoped for. They're both legitimate arms, though one is unproven and the other has an insane injury history. Much happier with those two than any two of the retread group (Happ, Esmil Rogers, Todd Redmond, Romero). With any luck Kyle Drabek will continue showing decent control and he can be the first guy they call on when they need a replacement.

 
So, I know he had an up and down season last year and a bit of the shine came off him as an uber-elite prospect, but Aaron Sanchez is basically unhittable. Can't wait for him to climb up to the Jays.

 
Agree with Eephus on McGowan, that guy deserves some good fortune. Glad he's back, hope he can stay healthy.

Those games in Montreal were fun. I'd love if the Rays moved up there. I'd love a reason to go there once a season, great town. After that showing for an exhibition, I have to think a team is inevitable.

I'd love to see Montreal and Portland get expansion teams, get the leagues back to 16 each and get rid of daily interleague.

 
It has been years since there has been this complete lack of enthusiasm and hope surrounding the team. Maybe that means this is the year they get back to the playoffs. Right? RIGHT!?!?!?

:unsure:

 
I don't think Santana would have been the final piece but the Blue Jays are allegedly a team built to contend now. Their rotation already had more than the usual number of question marks. Santana isn't the model of consistency but he has averaged 200 IP over the past six years.

The Blue Jays aren't a terrible team but they're still the worst team on paper in their division. They need some young pitchers to step up and not get hurt. Santana would have reduced this pressure a bit.

Their window is now, for whatever that's worth. They dealt their young talent for Reyes, Buehrle and their untradeable contracts. Their organization has no impact position players in sight of the bigs. If they don't do something this year, 2015 looks even bleaker in terms of dead money. I don't know how much further below 74-88 the bottom is but we might find out in 2015-16.
The only thing I'll disagree on here is dead money. The only one on the team with any firm commitment beyond 2015 is Reyes. The Dickey/Bautista/Encarnacion/Lind/Morrow/Santos deals all have team options, so if they suck beyond 2014/2015 there's not much sunk cost and right now all 5 of those players are on deals at or below market value IMO. The only "bad" contracts are the two they acquired from Miami - Reyes and Buerhle. Reyes' 22 million in 2016 and 2017 will be a pill to swallow, but shouldn't cripple a team with a $120 million payroll.

The other side is because so many contracts expire after 2015, there's no excuse not to build around this core of players now. The offense and bullpen are both up to AL East standards, the starting pitching isn't even close.
Sign Buehrle to an extension now

 
Does this not come across as a big FU to JPA?

@ShiDavidi 25m
Jose Bautista: "I could really get used to the chemistry that I see between our catcher and our pitchers."
 
I used to catch bullpens for Hutchison when he was about 12 at a place called Baseball Basics in Lakeland. Great to see him come back from TJ and succeed.

 
Does anyone else get the feeling that Lawrie just has no clue what he is doing at the plate?
I do!

And what about Rasmus??? He has two hits (both doubles) and 12 strikeouts in 27 AB.

With Reyes out their bottom 4 hitters are going to be Lawrie (BA - .103), Rasmus (.074), Goins (.063) and Diaz (.200). MLB should force the other teams to get 4 outs per inning vs. the Jays.

 

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