IDP OPPORTUNITY IN THE NFL DRAFT
The final phase of the NFL’s non-playing season is finally on the horizon for us – the NFL Draft. We’ll be back to review all the major coaching and scheme changes and free agent movement in an extended Offseason Reading the Defense column in May, but the draft is clearly the focus for now. Today, let’s look at some of the most attractive situations for a defensive prospect to be drafted into this weekend. And don’t forget to catch our running blog/thread in the IDP Forum all weekend long for immediate analysis and discussion as the defensive players come off the board.
IMMEDIATE OPENINGS
S KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Anything is possible in Kansas City. It’s likely that the team won’t add any immediate help at DE or CB again this year, but the shuffles could continue at both ILB positions and at safety in this draft. For fantasy purposes, it’s the safety position that’s most likely to see an impact performer added. Behind a suspect ILB group, one of this season’s many interchangeable safety options could put up big numbers here.
ILB ARIZONA CARDINALS
The Cardinals currently have Paris Lenon penciled in as the replacement for Karlos Dansby. Lenon has been somewhat productive in attractive roles in the past. He’s the very definition of stopgap veteran in this role. Gerald Hayes has been a solid every-down defender in the past, but the team has weaned him from many of those duties over the past two seasons. IDP followers aren’t giving this job opening as much attention as they should. An every-down prospect could quickly climb the depth chart this summer and begin putting up very strong numbers by opening weekend.
ILB NEW YORK GIANTS
There’s a contrarian argument here that would suggest that the Giants can get by with a smallish MLB behind a healthy stud defensive line on base downs and use Michael Boley as their main nickel backer, leaving them to let Jonathan Goff play his way into the role. More likely, however, Perry Fewell will want to address the job with an impact player now. There are a couple of strong ILB prospects (Rolando McClain and Donald Butler) who can handle the all-around duties asked of the MLB in Fewell’s aggressive 4-3 with Tampa-2 responsibilities. It’ll be hard to keep the Giants’ choice out of the top spot in the first group of rookie IDP rankings next week.
DE TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
There’s still plenty to like about Stylez White, but there’s not much left behind him on the depth chart. The Bucs are flush with line ‘tweeners now, having changed schemes from the Tampa-2 to the bulky front four philosophy that Jim Bates preferred and back to the Tampa-2. None of those players are all-around run stopping, pass rushing prospects. Tampa Bay may not get one of the two or three all-around prospects in this draft, but there’s immediate playing time to be found if the draft breaks their way.
DE SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
The Seahawks aren’t yet sure where Patrick Kerney stands and, with Darryl Tapp traded to Philadelphia, Chris Clemons and Lawrence Jackson are currently getting the bulk of the team’s minicamp work. Should the Seahawks not choose to use four linebackers (with Aaron Curry in an elephant hybrid role) full time, expect at least one body to be added to the mix during the draft.
DYNASTY SPECIALS
ILB BALTIMORE RAVENS
Many IDP observers started watching this situation closely years ago, expecting the Ravens to consider drafting the heirs apparent to both Bart Scott and Ray Lewis. Tavares Gooden has proven not to be a long-term answer in Baltimore and impressive UDFA Dannell Ellerbee is unlikely to grow into a dynamic every-down player. Those two may in fact be the inside backers when and if Lewis ever slows down, but it’s again time to watch the Ravens closely on draft day. Baltimore has only two picks before Round 5. If they use the second round pick on an inside linebacker prospect, that player will deserve your attention in rookie drafts. More likely, the Ravens will have to wait until 2011 to add an inspiring IDP linebacker prospect.
ILB NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Jerod Mayo is entrenched as the primary IDP option among Patriots’ defenders. Gary Guyton seems maxed out and a little overmatched at SILB, while Tyrone McKenzie has to show that he’s recovered from an ACL and can handle a bigger role against first team competiton. The Patriots have four of the first 53 picks in the draft. They may well choose to address the line and OLB depth first, but another ILB hedge wouldn’t be shocking. There’s room for two every-down inside backers in this scheme, so any highly drafted backer will warrant dynasty consideration here.
DE TENNESSEE TITANS
The Titans are happy to rotate fresh bodies along the defensive line, but they’ve slowly bled talent and experience over the past three years. It’s a good situation for a talented prospect who needs to gain a few pounds and develop NFL-ready technique. Should the Titans slip a guy like that on their roster, give him priority status on your medium-term watch list in deep dynasty leagues.
ILB CHICAGO BEARS
Brian Urlacher is rumored to be in the best shape and frame of mind in years. Still, he’s 32 and carries durability, surrounding cast and scheme questions that aren’t plaguing similar vets like London Fletcher and Ray Lewis. The Bears have decent depth at this position, but it’s time to be on the lookout for the next MLB in the great Chicago tradition. That player isn’t going to be Jamar Williams, Hunter Hillenmeyer or Nick Roach.
S DALLAS COWBOYS
The Cowboys have a glut of replacement level players and unproven youth on the depth chart at secondary. They have a solid group of inside backers, but no true tackle hog. The surprising IDP find here may be Alan Ball or Michael Hamlin, but a two-way safety taken in the high-middle rounds of this draft may be just as likely to be the player you’ll want rostered by 2011.
SITUATIONS TO WATCH
DE BALTIMORE RAVENS
The Ravens’ hybrid front will allow a strong two-way player to put up decent tackle numbers. With Dwan Edwards gone in free agency, Paul Kruger still bulking up and Trevor Pryce at the end of a solid career, the Ravens may draft an every-down end prospect highly. The hype may go to the deep group of tweener prospects and the highly drafted 4-3 end prospects, but there’s room for a quietly solid Ty Warren or Marques Douglas type option in the early rounds for Baltimore this year.
S CLEVELAND BROWNS
In the interests of full disclosure, I’m no fan of Abram Elam. He’s been in two very good situations for production over the past two years and has underproduced in the box score. To be fair, Elam is averaging over 70 solos per 16 games since earning the starting job in New York in mid-2008. However, the opportunity likely would have supported 80 or more. If the Browns choose to grab a safety highly – and there are plenty of strong, two-way safety prospects on the board – there’s value to be found here.
ILB DENVER BRONCOS
D.J. Williams is safe in his favorable WILB role in the current Denver 3-4. However, it will be interesting to see how the Broncos approach their draft. Though they’ve turned over almost every defensive starter over the past two seasons, they’ve done so mostly by signing older veterans during the second wave of free agency. The SILB spot should be high on the list of priorities for a team disappointed in its rush defense last year and a potential every-down prospect here could make for a surprisingly productive ILB tandem.
LB JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
After feeling confident in their stable of veteran and young linebackers this time last season, the Jags have stated that only Daryl Smith’s spot on the depth chart is safe entering OTAs. Rumors continue to swirl that Jacksonville may take a thumping ILB prospect and move Justin Durant back outside or add a dynamic OLB prospect to replace Clint Ingram (with Durant presumably battling Russell Allen for the MLB job). Local beat writers are strongly suggesting that the team will choose to draft the ILB prospect. Lots of ripple effects are possible if the Jaguars see something they like on draft day.
DE OAKLAND RAIDERS
It’s a fool’s errand to try to predict the moves of Al Davis, but there would seem to be playing time to be found for a rookie defensive end prospect here. The team has only Richard Seymour and Matt Shaughnessy rostered as pure defensive ends right now. They’ve seemingly soured on Jay Richardson as anything more than a minor rotational player. Both Kamerion Wimbley and Trevor Scott can and likely will play end in passing situations, but the Raiders seem committed to them as linebackers in the base defense. With Seymour aging and inconsistent and Shaughnessy yet to prove himself able to handle 60% or more of his team’s snaps, a high draft pick may see more playing time than usual.
S CHICAGO BEARS
The depth chart is littered with players who have rode the waves of change in Chicago and washed out once they hit the beach. The current safeties du jour are Craig Steltz and Danieal Manning. Neither inspire confidence that they be in those roles for any length of time. It won’t be surprising to see more names added to this competition by draft’s end.
LB ST. LOUIS RAMS
The Rams have so many holes that it’s hard to see them making OLB a priority. At some point, however, Steve Spagnuolo is going to want a more dynamic, all-around player at OLB to allow him to be more aggressive with his front seven. This might be a spot where one of those ‘tweeners that look like a 3-4 OLB slide to the later rounds for the Rams to grab and coach up in the hopes they’ll uncover a Brian Cushing like player for the future.
BIG PLAY ATTRACTIONS
For those in standard scoring leagues, the more highly regarded ‘tweeners in this draft are mostly one-dimensional pass rushers and may never generate the tackle numbers needed to hold value for you. Big play leaguers may finally catch a break, though. More teams moving toward the 3-4 and subpackages that utilize situational rushers in a draft where there’s arguably five players with the athleticism and first step to be 25-30 solo, 8-10 sack players. Teams like Buffalo, Cleveland, Denver, Kansas City, Miami, New England and San Francisco all have pressing needs for that kind of player. Arizona, the New York Jets and a handful of 4-3 fronts could use a more dynamic pass rush option, too.