***Official 2010 IDP NFL Draft Thread*** (1 Viewer)

[Duke1948]

2.55 -- ILB SEAN LEE -- Dallas Cowboys

I compared him to Dan Connor in my pre-draft study, but you can make an argument that Lee looks an awful lot like the man he'll eventually replace in Dallas -- Keith Brooking. He's not likely to be stout enough at the point of attack to be a threat to Bradie James and he may prove too limited in coverage to hold an every-down role, but the Cowboys liked him enough to move up to get him. Will be interesting to hear how soon the team thinks he can contribute.

have they fallen out with Jason Williams or have they other plans?

 

[KellysHeroes]

so do we have a rankings list the rookie IDPers

You guys don't waste any time do you? I'm planning to let tomorrow percolate a little, catch up on some coaching comments, then submit a first set of rankings sometime Sunday.My first thought would be that McClain and Washington hold immediate value at LB, Morgan likely to be the highest rated DL ahead of Graham and Berry ranks a half tier ahead of a huge group of DB potentials. Weatherspoon, Lee and Butler are going to be interesting dynasty targets, and I think every safety drafted thus far could have top 30 potential if things break right.

Thanks Jene... I can't wait.

 

[Jene Bramel]

what in the world are the Giants going to do? I think the only solution now is see if the Raiders take a 4th or 5th for Morrison or Howard...

I doubt anyone is going to trade for Morrison. He's too expensive to keep as a backup and, unless the Raiders decide to go primarily with a 3-4 and choose to use him next to McClain over Howard, Morrison will be cut soon.The Giants have some options at MLB. They aren't good ones, but there are options. They clearly believe that this particular draft class didn't provide any clear upgrades -- unless that's misinformation in the hopes that a sleeper pick falls to them in the 4th or 5th round.

 

[Jene Bramel]

2.55 -- ILB SEAN LEE -- Dallas Cowboys

I compared him to Dan Connor in my pre-draft study, but you can make an argument that Lee looks an awful lot like the man he'll eventually replace in Dallas -- Keith Brooking. He's not likely to be stout enough at the point of attack to be a threat to Bradie James and he may prove too limited in coverage to hold an every-down role, but the Cowboys liked him enough to move up to get him. Will be interesting to hear how soon the team thinks he can contribute.

have they fallen out with Jason Williams or have they other plans?

I heard good things about Williams this offseason. It sounded like he was likely going to replace Bobby Carpenter as a nickel linebacker. Comments from Jerry Jones and Wade Phillips last night suggest that they had Lee graded so highly that the value was too good to pass up to go up and get him. I wouldn't call it a falling out as much as they were able to get someone they liked better. No question that Lee should now be considered the high priority future linebacker target in Dallas.

 

[Jene Bramel]

DE Everson Griffen has some potential for Minnesota, but it won't be until his technique and leverage catches up to his measured size. Rotational guy behind Jared Allen, Ray Edwards and Brian Robison.

 

[blend]

2.54 -- DE CARLOS DUNLAP -- Cincinnati Bengals

Ah, the Bengals. Dunlap has all kinds of talent, but just as many work ethic and off-field concerns. He could fit anywhere along the line as a rotational player and likely will be groomed as the long term LDE if he plays to his potential. Could kick inside on passing downs as well.

Zimmer confirms on conference call: Dunlap to work at LDE and will possibly play DT on passing downs.

How does this impact the Bengals' view of Michael Johnson?From teh Bengals Presser:

MARVIN LEWIS

Initial comments:

ML: “Picking Carlos (Dunlap) gives us another player to add depth on the defensive line. He has an ability to be both an outside rusher and an inside rusher. He’s a tremendous athlete. He’s had good production. He’s had 19 and a half sacks the last two years at Florida. He’s done a lot of the things you do in National Football League defenses, as far as understanding blitz-zones, and then the base defenses. We’re really excited about him. He’s a tall, angular guy with great speed and athleticism.”

Q: A lot of people are saying the same sorts of things — both strengths and weaknesses — about him as they were about Michael Johnson at this time last year. They say he is tall, lean and strong, but takes some plays off. Is that a fair assessment?

ML: “I don’t want to characterize that in comparison with Michael. Since we’ve had Michael, we’ve found there to be other things. We had Carlos evaluated right in this area (in the draft), and we were able to pick him right about in the spot where we thought he should go. So we feel good about that. The good thing is, as I’ve said many times, the guys that are being picked are going off the board kind of how we expected.”

 

[Jene Bramel]

LB Perry Riley might be interesting. He's not a great fit in coverage and more of a thumper than his size would suggest. May never project to an every-down role and he's in the mix with HB Blades and Rocky McIntosh for snaps. But there have been indications that McIntosh is on his way out and the new coaches may not see a lot in Blades. There could be more value here than first appears.

 

[Jene Bramel]

2.54 -- DE CARLOS DUNLAP -- Cincinnati Bengals

Ah, the Bengals. Dunlap has all kinds of talent, but just as many work ethic and off-field concerns. He could fit anywhere along the line as a rotational player and likely will be groomed as the long term LDE if he plays to his potential. Could kick inside on passing downs as well.

Zimmer confirms on conference call: Dunlap to work at LDE and will possibly play DT on passing downs.

How does this impact the Bengals' view of Michael Johnson?From teh Bengals Presser:

MARVIN LEWIS

Initial comments:

ML: “Picking Carlos (Dunlap) gives us another player to add depth on the defensive line. He has an ability to be both an outside rusher and an inside rusher. He’s a tremendous athlete. He’s had good production. He’s had 19 and a half sacks the last two years at Florida. He’s done a lot of the things you do in National Football League defenses, as far as understanding blitz-zones, and then the base defenses. We’re really excited about him. He’s a tall, angular guy with great speed and athleticism.”

Q: A lot of people are saying the same sorts of things — both strengths and weaknesses — about him as they were about Michael Johnson at this time last year. They say he is tall, lean and strong, but takes some plays off. Is that a fair assessment?

ML: “I don’t want to characterize that in comparison with Michael. Since we’ve had Michael, we’ve found there to be other things. We had Carlos evaluated right in this area (in the draft), and we were able to pick him right about in the spot where we thought he should go. So we feel good about that. The good thing is, as I’ve said many times, the guys that are being picked are going off the board kind of how we expected.”

I don't think it impacts Michael Johnson at all. If Johnson develops, either into a strong situational rusher or an every-down end, he's going to play. Johnson is more of a RDE, Dunlap fits on the strong side. Dunlap may also gain enough weight to fit as a three-technique in time, too. Nearly every team is trending toward a rotation among their ends and Johnson still has a long way to go to earn a 60-70% snap count anyway.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Kirk Morrison has been traded to Jacksonville!!

 

[jsharlan]

Kirk Morrison has been traded to Jacksonville!!

Excellent spot for him! Not quite as good as going to the Giants, but I think it saves his IDP value.

 

[Fighting Noles]

Durant value down pretty significantly now IMO.....

 

[kurtrudder]

Kirk Morrison has been traded to Jacksonville!!

sheesh....another nail in the coffin for Durant's immediate dynasty value

 

[Jene Bramel]

Kirk Morrison has been traded to Jacksonville!!

Excellent spot for him! Not quite as good as going to the Giants, but I think it saves his IDP value.

Durant value down pretty significantly now IMO.....

Not sure I entirely agree here...yet.I think it's very possible that Smith and Durant are the nickel backers. Durant's value takes a hit in that scenario, but he was pretty productive as the every-down WLB in the few games in which he played in that role.I would much rather have seen Morrison in New York. He wouldn't have been a slam dunk every-down guy there either, but his chances would have been much higher.

 

[Jene Bramel]

S Darrell Stuckey to San Diego to compete with a handful of guys, most notably Kevin Ellison, for the SS job there. Worth watching.

DE Corey Wootton might get playing time quickly as a base defensive guy rotating with Mark Anderson and others. He may never be a stud pass rusher, but is the kind of guy who might develop into a lesser Aaron Kampman type if his injury issues are behind him and he continues to improve.

 

[Fighting Noles]

I just think there is "something" that the JAX staff doesn't like with Durant & this cements that.

You & this site pointed out that he was sitting in some situations at the end of last year and then there was the news that they were "happy" with Smith at LB and would be addressing the other spots.

Something just doesn't smell right IMO.....

 

[jsharlan]

Giants finally pick a LB

 

[Jene Bramel]

Here's the LB for the Giants -- LB Phillip Dillard has the makings of an interesting MLB. Scouting reports are mixed. Some suggest he can handle an every-down role -- quick enough to cover and blitz. Others knock his instincts and range. Has to be considered highly due to the situation, but the comments from the Giants front office will be telling. If they say they targeted him all along and were playing Iraqi Defense Information Minister yesterday, he should move up our lists quickly. If not, it could be a reaction to the Morrison trade and read as a body coming to compete but not necessarily seen as an every-down lock.

 

[Dave Larkin]

Thoughts on Thaddeus Gibson to the Steelers? Steelers LBs are always worth paying attention to...

 

[Jene Bramel]

Would Durant be WLB or SLB?

He'd be ROLB/WLB. Smith stays at LOLB/SLB.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Thoughts on Thaddeus Gibson to the Steelers? Steelers LBs are always worth paying attention to...

Somewhat different type of player than Jason Worilds, but in the same situation. Goes into the developmental pipeline behind James Harrison to step in when Harrison moves on. I don't think he's a fit inside, he's not particularly instinctive and more of a pass rusher and played with his hand down at Ohio State.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Miami takes an interesting LB prospect in AJ Edds. Looks like a guy who could've slotted in a number of different positions, but should work well at ILB here. He's got good instincts and playing speed to go with his size and can probably handle a zone coverage role. Could push Channing Crowder aside here in time.

 

[Jene Bramel]

DE O'Brien Schofield should be on the longer term radar for those in big play leagues. He's a very promising OLB prospect going to a good situation in Arizona. Torn ACL will probably land him on IR this year.

There's a need for pass rushing ends in Seattle, but EJ Wilson doesn't really fit the bill. He's not particularly athletic and more of a base defensive LDE run defender.

 

[Jene Bramel]

S Kam Chancellor is a nice in-the-box safety prospect. He could force some shuffling in the future, but the depth chart still likely reads Babineaux/Thomas for the foreseeable future.

OLB/DE Ricky Sapp goes to Philadelphia. He could slot at SLB there or possibly go into the deep DE rotation. My guess is that he'll compete with Moise Fokou, but he'll have to get better at the point of attack to earn playing time.

 

[kurtrudder]

hey Jene.....great job today. I know the IDP picks are flying off the board....what do you think of the last pick of the 4th round, Roddrick Muckelroy to Cincy?

 

[Jene Bramel]

hey Jene.....great job today. I know the IDP picks are flying off the board....what do you think of the last pick of the 4th round, Roddrick Muckelroy to Cincy?

Special teams player, upside limited. Can't imagine he passes Rey Maualuga as the future MLB and he doesn't have the coverage ability to play every down. May eventually end up starting at SLB once Dhani Jones moves one (with Maualuga moving inside), but scouting reports are mixed on his point of attack ability. Zimmer has earned trust as a guy who can match talent to scheme, though, so his comments may alter my opinion.Another interesting name, LB Eric Norwood, probably falls off the value chart with his selection by Carolina. He'll compete at SLB and backup MLB in the long term.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Durant owners dodging a bullet. Thanks Al!

So far, but I have a gut feeling with no factual basis that the Jags will be one of the teams interested in Kirk Morrison. I think they want to move Durant to OLB.

The old "spaghetti to the wall" theory. :(

 

[Jene Bramel]

I don't expect either of these next two rounds to be exciting. This draft was deep, but most of the second tier defensive prospects went in the 3rd-5th rounds and it looks like teams are now concentrating on some offensive talent.

S Reshad Jones might be interesting in Miami. He reads like an inconsistent SS prospect but needs seasoning and shouldn't be a threat to Yeremiah Bell any time soon.

There are still a couple of DE projects to put on the radar if they go to teams with opportunity, but none are likely to be make an impact in 2010. The Saints and Rams could still use an OLB, but while there are a couple of interesting names out there (Jamar Chaney maybe), it's a stretch to see any immediate impact there either.

Expect our individual rookie rankings to begin rolling out tomorrow and through early next week with updates through the minicamp season. It's a deep group this year with some interesting possibilities, so I'm looking forward to the coming discussions this week.

Also, redraft rankings should begin rolling out next week as we open up the site for business on Monday.

 

[kurtrudder]

what about Larry Asante SS to the Browns? He has some Chris Harris in him IMO, passionate about the game, strong tackler....a little stiff and somewhat of a liability in coverage.

 

[Jene Bramel]

what about Larry Asante SS to the Browns? He has some Chris Harris in him IMO, passionate about the game, strong tackler....a little stiff and somewhat of a liability in coverage.

I'm certainly no fan of Abram Elam, so any name here has some upside. It may be the deep crop of two-way guys this year pushing me further in this direction, but I'm also growing more and more leery of one-dimensional safety prospects (Asante likely won't do well at all in coverage). Especially leery in zone coverage systems that would seem to do better with interchangeable players. The Browns fit that description, so my expectations are tempered for now.Again, some of that is my changing philosophy in the ranking of these players. I've been a big supporter of guys like Adam Archuleta, Michael Lewis, Sean Jones, Aaron Rouse and William Moore over the years, preferring the tackle upside of the more traditional SS guy over the FS talent with some run support skill. It's been clear for a couple of years now that those players are risky propositions and I'm wondering if I've been late to adjust. Hopefully, this dismissive argument on a guy like Asante doesn't prove to be an over-reaction.

 

[kurtrudder]

what about Larry Asante SS to the Browns? He has some Chris Harris in him IMO, passionate about the game, strong tackler....a little stiff and somewhat of a liability in coverage.

I'm certainly no fan of Abram Elam, so any name here has some upside. It may be the deep crop of two-way guys this year pushing me further in this direction, but I'm also growing more and more leery of one-dimensional safety prospects (Asante likely won't do well at all in coverage). Especially leery in zone coverage systems that would seem to do better with interchangeable players. The Browns fit that description, so my expectations are tempered for now.Again, some of that is my changing philosophy in the ranking of these players. I've been a big supporter of guys like Adam Archuleta, Michael Lewis, Sean Jones, Aaron Rouse and William Moore over the years, preferring the tackle upside of the more traditional SS guy over the FS talent with some run support skill. It's been clear for a couple of years now that those players are risky propositions and I'm wondering if I've been late to adjust. Hopefully, this dismissive argument on a guy like Asante doesn't prove to be an over-reaction.

I think for me this kind of player becomes a short term value play.....buy him low, once he starts racking up the tackles....sell high.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Again, some of that is my changing philosophy in the ranking of these players. I've been a big supporter of guys like Adam Archuleta, Michael Lewis, Sean Jones, Aaron Rouse and William Moore over the years, preferring the tackle upside of the more traditional SS guy over the FS talent with some run support skill. It's been clear for a couple of years now that those players are risky propositions and I'm wondering if I've been late to adjust. Hopefully, this dismissive argument on a guy like Asante doesn't prove to be an over-reaction.

I couldn't agree more. Also, as those so-called "traditional SS" players and their consistent tackle numbers seem to be dwindling, DBs have become so volatile that they are virtually impossible to rank with any confidence. For those that wonder about this comment, just take a look at all of our DB rankings when they come out, then compare to our rankings at other positions. The DB rankings will have wild fluctuations and they will extend a lot higher in the rankings than they do at other positions. The reason is the loss of those consistently high tacklers and them being replaced by the highly inconsistent big play numbers. The safeties of today are much more athletic and make more plays, but they also play a lot more in coverage because of today's high-powered passing games. They are also interchangeable and that makes it evewn tougher to project them. I think the traditional SS have some value in certain situations, but the value is very short-term and can disappear at any time if that player has poor coverage skills. Bernard Pollard seems to be the exception rather than the rule.

 

[massraider]

Interesting little blurb. Might mean a bump in value for one of the Fins CBs:

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/dolphins_in_depth/

The Dolphins had a surprise plan at nose tackle. They didn't find a good one early enough in the draft to fill the spot so they simply moved defensive end Randy Starks there.

Well, they face a similar situation at free safety.

Today they didn't pick a free safety candidate until Reshad Jones was the pick at the bottom of the fifth round. Jones joins Chris Clemons and Tyrone Culver at the position.

Well, what if the team has a surprise here as well?

How about moving cornerback Will Allen to free safety? How about moving Sean Smith to free safety?

I would love to tell you moving Jason Allen, a former first-round pick, might be an idea. But no one really believes that would resolve the search for a starter.

Bottom line is Miami needs a Plan B at this position. Maybe that plan is already on the roster.

Read more: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/dolphins_in.../#ixzz0m3hE8Gt8

 

[Tick]

Durant owners dodging a bullet. Thanks Al!

 

[Tick]

I'm really curious as to where in a rookie draft McClain will be going. I think it might be as high as the bottom third of the first round.

I don't see it.There were eleven RBs + WRs taken in the top two rounds, plus Bradford and possibly Clausen given his nice landing spot. Someone might love Tebow. There's always a FBG bias in drafts, so guys who were highly rated by Lammey, Bloom, or Waldman could go early even if they fell in the NFL draft (Dwyer/Dixon = Peerman? Andre Roberts/Shipley = Dillard/MThomas?).I see McClain falling out of the first in just about every draft.

 

[kurtrudder]

I'm really curious as to where in a rookie draft McClain will be going. I think it might be as high as the bottom third of the first round.

I don't see it.There were eleven RBs + WRs taken in the top two rounds, plus Bradford and possibly Clausen given his nice landing spot. Someone might love Tebow. There's always a FBG bias in drafts, so guys who were highly rated by Lammey, Bloom, or Waldman could go early even if they fell in the NFL draft (Dwyer/Dixon = Peerman? Andre Roberts/Shipley = Dillard/MThomas?).I see McClain falling out of the first in just about every draft.

I don't know, McClain is in a tier all on his own as the No.1 rookie IDP IMO, I wouldn't be surprised to see him off the board late in the 1st round.....esp in any league bigger than 12 teams. If I had a pick early in the 2nd round I would be over the moon to land McClain. Of course its going to vary slightly as per scoring systems but overall, I can't see it as a reach to grab McClain in the 1st. The situation is as plumb as they come in Oakland, Morrison filled his boots for a number of years and he was making many tackles 6 yards down field and the Raiders run defense was universally known as poor. I really like the improvements they have made and for me, McClain is more than good enough to thrive in this situation for years to come. He has a high football IQ and I think the Raiders investment in him will trump any possible negatives about his game.....no brainer for me.

 

[massraider]

I'm really curious as to where in a rookie draft McClain will be going. I think it might be as high as the bottom third of the first round.

I don't see it.There were eleven RBs + WRs taken in the top two rounds, plus Bradford and possibly Clausen given his nice landing spot. Someone might love Tebow. There's always a FBG bias in drafts, so guys who were highly rated by Lammey, Bloom, or Waldman could go early even if they fell in the NFL draft (Dwyer/Dixon = Peerman? Andre Roberts/Shipley = Dillard/MThomas?).I see McClain falling out of the first in just about every draft.

I feel you, and think you are probably right.It's a lot of stuff to digest, but I have no problem with McClain at the end of the 1st, beginning of the 2nd.

 

[Fighting Noles]

I'm really curious as to where in a rookie draft McClain will be going. I think it might be as high as the bottom third of the first round.

I don't see it.There were eleven RBs + WRs taken in the top two rounds, plus Bradford and possibly Clausen given his nice landing spot. Someone might love Tebow. There's always a FBG bias in drafts, so guys who were highly rated by Lammey, Bloom, or Waldman could go early even if they fell in the NFL draft (Dwyer/Dixon = Peerman? Andre Roberts/Shipley = Dillard/MThomas?).I see McClain falling out of the first in just about every draft.

Maybe in FBG drafts Tick - like you said, more sleeper hype - but in my IDP Dynasty Drafts I can almost guarantee McClain will go late 1st. The main reason is that the 1.10 - 1.12 picks "usually" (barring trades & often only one of those was traded) are owned by teams that are already pretty darn solid on Offense (why they finished 1st-3rd), and adding a STRONG IDP LB is just icing on the cake. He has a much better chance of making a CONTENDING teams starting lineupthan Gerhart or Clausen or Tebow. PLus, if you are solid @ WR, how much do you "want" Thomas in Denv (with those QB's) or a RB/WR/KR type like McCluster in KC. I'm just playing Devils' advocate here because at LEAST 1 LB has gone in each of our 4 rookie drafts in RD 1 since we started. Maybe my league isn't typical but I definitely can see someone taking him there if they are in play to win now mode....

 

[Cassius]

So is the whole notion of Raiders going to a 3-4 done?

 

[Jene Bramel]

So is the whole notion of Raiders going to a 3-4 done?

Cable is still being cryptic -- he's telling reporters that he won't tell them the changes they'll see in minicamp, but they'll like 'em -- but I think we're going to see a similar situation to the early Saints and Jaguars schemes last year at minimum. There will almost certainly be lots of base 3-4 and it's possible it'll be more than a 50-50 split in favor of the 3-4.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Here's the LB for the Giants -- LB Phillip Dillard has the makings of an interesting MLB. Scouting reports are mixed. Some suggest he can handle an every-down role -- quick enough to cover and blitz. Others knock his instincts and range. Has to be considered highly due to the situation, but the comments from the Giants front office will be telling. If they say they targeted him all along and were playing Iraqi Defense Information Minister yesterday, he should move up our lists quickly. If not, it could be a reaction to the Morrison trade and read as a body coming to compete but not necessarily seen as an every-down lock.

Here's the confirmation we're waiting for here.

"We weren't going to force anything," said Marc Ross, the Giants' director of college scouting. "We don't do that. When you force players and think it's a need, you get burned. We were going to wait for the right person at the right time.

"And we feel strongly Phillip Dillard is that guy."

...

They've been tracking Dillard for months, and if McClain was gone, drafting Dillard was apparently their alternate plan. In fact, Giants GM Jerry Reese said they discussed taking the "tough, instinctive, smart, hard-hitting" player one round earlier. They had him rated that highly, and Reese believes he's good enough to compete with veterans Jonathan Goff, Chase Blackburn and Gerris Wilkinson for that vacant starting job.

...

Ross said the Giants considered Dillard in Round 3 on Friday, when they took LSU safety Chad Jones instead.

Then they held their breath overnight because they didn't have any other middle linebackers rated "in that range" and might have ended up not taking one in the draft if Dillard was gone.

 

[Tick]

what about Larry Asante SS to the Browns? He has some Chris Harris in him IMO, passionate about the game, strong tackler....a little stiff and somewhat of a liability in coverage.

I'm certainly no fan of Abram Elam, so any name here has some upside. It may be the deep crop of two-way guys this year pushing me further in this direction, but I'm also growing more and more leery of one-dimensional safety prospects (Asante likely won't do well at all in coverage). Especially leery in zone coverage systems that would seem to do better with interchangeable players. The Browns fit that description, so my expectations are tempered for now.Again, some of that is my changing philosophy in the ranking of these players. I've been a big supporter of guys like Adam Archuleta, Michael Lewis, Sean Jones, Aaron Rouse and William Moore over the years, preferring the tackle upside of the more traditional SS guy over the FS talent with some run support skill. It's been clear for a couple of years now that those players are risky propositions and I'm wondering if I've been late to adjust. Hopefully, this dismissive argument on a guy like Asante doesn't prove to be an over-reaction.

I think for me this kind of player becomes a short term value play.....buy him low, once he starts racking up the tackles....sell high.

The key here is that the price is so low, there's no reason to avoid these players. They're all over the waiver wire every preseason. It seems you can pick up one of these guys every season and start him ahead of your long-term interchangeable stud safety.