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Ryan Fitzpatrick

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Just now, Hankmoody said:

Shouldn't surprise me from you though.

Calling someone else trite and then immediately following it up with a cute little underhanded personal attack... that's rich.

Plus, I didn't pick on him about it. Just corrected it. Had no intention of sounding snippy, like you just did. Would it be trite to explain the difference between grammar and spelling to you? I'd only be doing it in retaliation to your cheap shot, though. ;)

As for the actual question in your post, sure, it's probably at least a million/year more than he'd get as backup money, but it's also probably $6M/year more than he gets as backup money this year. Again, I like Fitzpatrick, but I don't think anyone is going to pay him $12M this year. I could be wrong, though. It just seems as though the market was cool on him before the draft and probably even worse now. I'll be surprised if he gets more than $24M over the next 3 years.

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23 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

I didn't say should, I said can.  Clearly this isn't about the "now" money but about the two following years he gets locked into lower salaries.  The Cowboys have $7M in cap space right now and could easily clear a few more million.  If it came down to it I'm sure he'd give up a few bucks this year and bet on himself getting another starting job next year - they all do.

Picking on grammar is trite.  Shouldn't surprise me from you though.

re: the bolded - that's exactly Fitzpatrick's point.  Why should he sign a 3 year deal with the last two at $6M?  What's the benefit over the worst case?  $1M a year?  Versus maybe playing well enough to get some other team to give him $12M to be a one year bridge again when they draft DeShaun Watson?  That's a terrible deal for him.

$7MM before signing their rookie class or is that afterwards? Plus we have to assume they sign no one else.

I tend to agree that the Jets are looking to have their cake and eat it too by adding the two seasons at $6MM for 2017-2018 (and thus being unfair to some extent), but I also see no scenario where Fitzpatrick makes $24MM (with the ability to earn $36MM in incentives) over the next three seasons. He received no legit offers this offseason when multiple teams had a need at the position.

I do see both sides for sure - so I'm not just supporting the Jets position - but I do think Fitzpatrick is overselling himself a bit based on one season where everything broke right for him, which is of course his right to do. 

Edited by Dr. Octopus
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8 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

$7MM before signing their rookie class or is that afterwards? Plus we have to assume they sign no one else.

I tend to agree that the Jets are looking to have their cake and eat it too by adding the two seasons at $6MM for 2017-2018 (and thus being unfair to some extent), but I also see no scenario where Fitzpatrick makes $24MM (with the ability to earn $36MM in incentives) over the next three seasons. He received no legit offers this offseason when multiple teams had a need at the position.

I do see both sides for sure - so I'm not just supporting the Jets position - but I do think Fitzpatrick is overselling himself a bit based on one season where everything broke right for him, which is of course his right to do. 

Hasn't it been reported that the incentives are virtually unattainable?

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1 hour ago, Bayhawks said:

Hasn't it been reported that the incentives are virtually unattainable?

Manish Mehta likes to stir the pot, but that is what he said, yes. I haven't seen the actual terms.

It's really the $24MM number that I'm going by anyway with that statement. I don't see him getting paid more than that over the next three seasons under any other scenarios.

 

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1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

$7MM before signing their rookie class or is that afterwards? Plus we have to assume they sign no one else.

I tend to agree that the Jets are looking to have their cake and eat it too by adding the two seasons at $6MM for 2017-2018 (and thus being unfair to some extent), but I also see no scenario where Fitzpatrick makes $24MM (with the ability to earn $36MM in incentives) over the next three seasons. He received no legit offers this offseason when multiple teams had a need at the position.

I do see both sides for sure - so I'm not just supporting the Jets position - but I do think Fitzpatrick is overselling himself a bit based on one season where everything broke right for him, which is of course his right to do. 

$7M is current.  I know Elliott is signed, so that's going to be the only significant cap hit from the rookies.  My point was more about a negotiating tactic he can use.

It's not about his probability of making more than $24M it's about the Jets capping his ability to do so at 0.  In his mind he envisions taking $12M this year on a 1 year deal, and then the Browns or Bills drafting a rookie and being willing to pay him $10-12M again to be a one year bridge or SF moving on from their donkeys and giving him a couple years for $20m or even Hackenburg pulling a Gabbert and never looking ready and the Jets turn to Fitz for another year or two as a starter.  Lloyd Christmas would love his odds there.

Both sides are overselling, that's what you do in a negotiation.  I don't think either is in the right and I don't think either is being unreasonable, they are simply protecting their own positions, which of course is their responsibility.  I would be shocked if Fitzpatrick didn't sign something, and I would be shocked if the Jets actually went into the season with Geno atop their depth chart.  I just don't think it's going to be the current deal, it's too inequitable to Fitzpatrick.

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On 6/6/2016 at 7:05 AM, Dr. Octopus said:

So he should turn down $15MM now, hoping for a Romo injury in Week 3? How will Jerruh "open his checkbook" to pay Fitz big money, when by then the Cowboys would likely be right up against the cap? I doubt they are holding $15MM in reserve in case Romo gets hurt.

If Fitz stepped in and played to the level of an NFL starter(AGAIN) then there would potentially be starting spots available in 2017. I'll just put this out there...... I think there will be starter spots moving forward every season in the NFL because there simply aren't enough starting caliber NFL QB's in the league. Keep in mind the 2017 NFL salary cap will be larger than the 2016 NFL salary cap.

There are just so many situations around the NFL where QB positions are being held together by a hope and a prayer. The Jets are trotting out Geno. CLE is having an open competition between RGIII and Kessler. The broncos are apparently considering a SB defense starting Siemian(nickname "Stain"?). Bills aren't sold on Tyrod Taylor and while I like Jones he's been called a project.... and we all know how well Ryan develops QB's. CHI will have to make a decision about Cutler and may end up signing a veteran if they develop a legit young QB. Tom Brady will be 40 before the 2017 season and may end up getting chased out of the league by Goodell if he can put off his suspension yet another season. Carson Palmer will be 37 by the end of the year.... and really he's been more successful stopping the Cardinals playoffs chances than any opponent the past two seasons. Romo will be 37 going on 50 by the start of the 2017 season. I like the prospects of Goff playing well, but we have no idea what the NFL will do to him..... or what the Fisher offense will do to him.

Maybe he has the opportunity to start and get paid like a starter in 2017. Maybe he doesn't. But the point is leaving $8mil/yr isn't that big a gamble for him to make. If he gets paid like a starter in 2017 and a backup in 2016 that is probably about the same as the Jets want to pay him for 2016/2017/2018.

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On 6/6/2016 at 6:32 AM, FF Ninja said:

You mean "paid"? Anyway, I think there are several reasons, but first, $8M/year is more than backup money. Second, a solid reason would be that backup QBs don't have to worry about their quality of life in 20 years. Third, that contract might represent the most money he could make in the next 3 years. If he takes a 1 year contract this year and then nobody wants to sign him as a starter next year then he's probably looking at $5M/year as a pure backup.

- What was the last veteran QB that was signed for ~5% of the salary cap or less to be the unquestioned starter?

- This is actually an excellent point but if Fitz is worried about his quality of life in 20 years why would he rather subject his body to the punishment of a starting QB at the salary of a backup? He would likely have a better quality of life by taking a backup job with a contender like the Cardinals or simply retiring rather than be underpaid. The point you are making actually erodes your own argument. 

- So it's your position that the top backup QB's will actually get paid less moving forward as the salary cap increases?

 

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On 6/2/2016 at 8:14 AM, Dr. Octopus said:

The Jets don't have $12MM in cap space so need the hit to be spread out over the three years which is why they offered him the three year deal with far lesser money in years 2 and 3. Both sides are being disingenuous every step of the way, but imo the Jets are on the more realistic side of the negotiation process and have the stronger argument.

In what way is Fitz being disingenuous?

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On 5/30/2016 at 6:02 AM, Dr. Octopus said:

I hope they find away to bring him back, but the funny thing is most fans are siding with the Jets approach here instead of scraming "Pay the man!", which beleive me is very rare in this market.

That could be true but when I read things like this it makes me wonder just how high Jets fans are on the alternative.....

Jets fans attending the team's annual Town Hall event last Wednesday night reportedly booed when coach Todd Bowles mentioned Geno Smith's name regarding Gang Green's quarterback situation.

Fans also chanted "We Want Fitz," referring to free agent Ryan Fitzpatrick. With Bowles, owner Woody Johnson, and GM Mike Maccagnan fielding questions, the Q & A portion of the Town Hall was "dominated" by fans asking about the Fitzpatrick situation. It sounds like Jets brass gave them no definitive answers, and the fans were angered when Smith's name was brought up.

Source: ESPN New York

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2 minutes ago, BoltBacker said:

- What was the last veteran QB that was signed for ~5% of the salary cap or less to be the unquestioned starter?

- This is actually an excellent point but if Fitz is worried about his quality of life in 20 years why would he rather subject his body to the punishment of a starting QB at the salary of a backup? He would likely have a better quality of life by taking a backup job with a contender like the Cardinals or simply retiring rather than be underpaid. The point you are making actually erodes your own argument. 

- So it's your position that the top backup QB's will actually get paid less moving forward as the salary cap increases?

Who says he'll be the unquestioned starter in 2017? All I said was $8M was more than backup money. I never said it wasn't less than typical starter money, although I do believe there were several starters playing for much less than $8M/year last year. Looking at the contract closer now, he'd be getting $12M to be the starter this year and I assume they would want him to be a backup in 2017 for $6M/year which is a handsome salary for a backup.

And no, nothing I've said erodes my point. $12M to start this year and $6M to sit the next two is a nice scenario for him. But my point has always simply been that I doubt Fitzpatrick is going to get more than $24M over the next 3 years. I don't see how you get the idea that I think backups will get paid less moving forward or how that changes my point.

I like Fitzpatrick as a player and hopes he stays paired with Chan Gailey. I just don't think he is good enough to get more than $24M over the next 3 years.

 

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1 hour ago, FF Ninja said:

Who says he'll be the unquestioned starter in 2017? All I said was $8M was more than backup money.

Nobody. I was saying that $24mil over the next three years averages out to $8mil/season. How many teams sign veteran QB's and hand them starting jobs for ~5% of their salary cap? 

I think we KNOW he would start for the Jets in 2016. Whether he would start or be a backup in 2017 is pure speculation. There are plenty of folks that think both Hack/Petty are more than a year from being ready to start. It may be telling that NY seems to want to control his destiny beyond 2016. 

 

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Just now, BoltBacker said:

Nobody. I was saying that $24mil over the next three years averages out to $8mil/season. How many teams sign veteran QB's and hand them starting jobs for ~5% of their salary cap? 

I think we KNOW he would start for the Jets in 2016. Whether he would start or be a backup in 2017 is pure speculation. There are plenty of folks that think both Hack/Petty are more than a year from being ready to start. It may be telling that NY seems to want to control his destiny beyond 2016. 

Eh, I think the whole 3 year thing has to do with spreading the cap hit. They can't afford to pay him $12M this year or else they'd probably do it.

To answer the question you keep asking: several. I think the Texans signed Hoyer to be their starter last year for like $5M/year. RG3 is getting less than $8M/year in Cleveland, right? How much did Cleveland sign McCown for last year to be their starter? McCown is a decent (not great) comp to Fitz. I think he was getting like $5M/year, but I could be wrong.

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3 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Eh, I think the whole 3 year thing has to do with spreading the cap hit. They can't afford to pay him $12M this year or else they'd probably do it.

To answer the question you keep asking: several. I think the Texans signed Hoyer to be their starter last year for like $5M/year. RG3 is getting less than $8M/year in Cleveland, right? How much did Cleveland sign McCown for last year to be their starter? McCown is a decent (not great) comp to Fitz. I think he was getting like $5M/year, but I could be wrong.

Well, I think the situations you mentioned were all considered open competitions at this time last year. RGIII has said over and over again he's fine with it being an open competition this summer. I don't think there would be any doubt Fitz would start for NY for AT LEAST 2016.

If it was all about cap hit then they should just make the last two years a player-opt-out. But NY doesn't want to do that because the cap goes up next year and musical chairs starts again. Fitz has already said he would accept $12mil for a single season so he would definitely take $12mil with an opt out.

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1 minute ago, BoltBacker said:

Well, I think the situations you mentioned were all considered open competitions at this time last year. RGIII has said over and over again he's fine with it being an open competition this summer. I don't think there would be any doubt Fitz would start for NY for AT LEAST 2016.

If it was all about cap hit then they should just make the last two years a player-opt-out. But NY doesn't want to do that because the cap goes up next year and musical chairs starts again. Fitz has already said he would accept $12mil for a single season so he would definitely take $12mil with an opt out.

I'm not sure it is that simple from a salary cap perspective.

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Quote

 

Based on film study, ESPN's Ron Jaworski said free agent Ryan Fitzpatrick should have thrown 30 interceptions last year.

Jaws was unimpressed by Fitzpatrick's 2015 tape. "There were 15 [passes] that doinked off a linebacker's hand or safety's hand that should've been intercepted," said Jaworski. "He was a little bit lucky." Jaws criticized Fitzpatrick for his lack of consistency and attributed most of his success to Brandon Marshall's "phenomenal" play. Fitzpatrick certainly overachieved in 2015. It's very likely one of the reasons the Jets feel comfortable playing hardball in contract talks.

 

 

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35 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

 

 

To be fair that is probably true for a lot of QBs. It would be really interesting if somewhere like PFF tracked that so we could compare how lucky certain QBs were each year. A column titled "INTs dropped" sounds about right. Would give a better idea of how well the QB played rather than only counting the INTs that were caught.

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1 minute ago, FF Ninja said:

To be fair that is probably true for a lot of QBs. It would be really interesting if somewhere like PFF tracked that so we could compare how lucky certain QBs were each year. A column titled "INTs dropped" sounds about right. Would give a better idea of how well the QB played rather than only counting the INTs that were caught.

True, but I've stated several times in this thread the same thing that Jaws saw. Fitz had a nice season but was very lucky and Marshall and Decker often bailed him out. That's not to say he's not the Jets best option for this current season though.

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Just now, Dr. Octopus said:

True, but I've stated several times in this thread the same thing that Jaws saw. Fitz had a nice season but was very lucky and Marshall and Decker often bailed him out. That's not to say he's not the Jets best option for this current season though.

Oh, I don't doubt it. He makes a ton of terrible decisions for a smart guy. I was just saying it would be interesting to see the stat for everyone. I would expect him to be near the league lead in dropped INTs last year, but if he had 15 dropped INTs, I fully expect just about every QB to have at least 5.

Just trying to give some perspective. Not disagreeing the the overall take.

From reading this thread, I think you and I have very similar stances on Fitzpatrick and the Jets.

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11 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

True, but I've stated several times in this thread the same thing that Jaws saw. Fitz had a nice season but was very lucky and Marshall and Decker often bailed him out. That's not to say he's not the Jets best option for this current season though.

Agree all the way around.  Best option, given what they got but, boy, Brandon Marshall was just dialed in last year. He made life a lot easier and Decker was money in key situations.  I obviously don't have access to things like JAWS does so I will assume his reporting is correct and I will say that it DID seem like every time I watched the Jets passing game last year I was saying "Geez! Can you believe the luck there."  Seems like they got an inordinate amount of lucky bounces. 

 

With all that being said (And I know I'm likely wrong to think so) I think it was poor taste for Jaws to report that. There are other players to talk about and I see this as something that could directly impact Fitz's contract negotiations and earning potential. I may be giving Jaws too much credibility here but of the likely outcomes I'd say it is more likely to have negative impact than positive and when a man is negotiating his contract I think Jaws would have used better courtesy to just leave it on the table.

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48 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Oh, I don't doubt it. He makes a ton of terrible decisions for a smart guy. I was just saying it would be interesting to see the stat for everyone. I would expect him to be near the league lead in dropped INTs last year, but if he had 15 dropped INTs, I fully expect just about every QB to have at least 5.

Just trying to give some perspective. Not disagreeing the the overall take.

From reading this thread, I think you and I have very similar stances on Fitzpatrick and the Jets.

Yeah, I'm sure a just like dropped passes, dropped INTs happen as well. It was just really noticeable watching over the course of the season with Fitz though. I couldn't put an actual number on it, but you knew a lot of the times it was smoke and mirrors or "Fitzmagic" if you will. I definitely loved his grittiness and leadership though.

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39 minutes ago, Shutout said:

Brandon Marshall was just dialed in last year.

Obviously as a fan of the NFL, I've seen Marshall play many many times and knew how great he was, but when I finally got to watch him week in and week out for 16 games it was eye opening. I was like "damn, this is why this guy catches 100 balls every year". He outmuscled and outworked defensive backs each week and gave Fitz the biggest window I've seen from a Jet QB/WR combo (which isn't saying much of course ;) ). Marshall was just unstoppable most weeks and all Fitz had to do was out it in the area and let Marshall go up and get it. Brilliant season.

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1 hour ago, FF Ninja said:

He makes a ton of terrible decisions for a smart guy.

I've long noticed that about him and even on non-professional level, at any level really, I've often seen smarts not translate to athletic endeavors and vice versa. I've seen a lot of dumb people look brilliant on a court/field with their decision making. Different kind of thought process going on.

Alex Smith and Fitz might be two smartest QB's in the NFL and they are very opposite.

I'd rather have Alex Smith as QB of my real NFL team. I mean I'd hope for an upgrade on him but between the two I'd take him. He'll drive you nuts with his safe play, some might say smart play, but he's not going to beat you. He's plays the game  the way you would expect a smart person more prone to a methodical thought process might play.

Fitz I'd rather have as QB throwing to my fantasy WR's because unlike Smith he gets the ball out quickly and gives his WR's a chance to make a play. You might say his intelligence manifests itself in his quick decision making process, except he's wrong so much I'm not so sure but unlike Smith he will get you beat throwing passes he should not be attempting. But again if I've got a fantasy WR and I could pick Fitz or Smith as the QB I'd rather have Fitz.

I own Marshall a decent amount of places so I'd selfishly like to see Jets work it out with him but from a real team building perspective I've never had any issue with their stance towards him and in fact think they should play hardball a bit with him at this point and time.

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Shutout said:

Agree all the way around.  Best option, given what they got but, boy, Brandon Marshall was just dialed in last year. He made life a lot easier and Decker was money in key situations.  I obviously don't have access to things like JAWS does so I will assume his reporting is correct and I will say that it DID seem like every time I watched the Jets passing game last year I was saying "Geez! Can you believe the luck there."  Seems like they got an inordinate amount of lucky bounces. 

 

With all that being said (And I know I'm likely wrong to think so) I think it was poor taste for Jaws to report that. There are other players to talk about and I see this as something that could directly impact Fitz's contract negotiations and earning potential. I may be giving Jaws too much credibility here but of the likely outcomes I'd say it is more likely to have negative impact than positive and when a man is negotiating his contract I think Jaws would have used better courtesy to just leave it on the table.

I highly doubt that this was information the Jets weren't aware of.

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2 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Yeah, I'm sure a just like dropped passes, dropped INTs happen as well. It was just really noticeable watching over the course of the season with Fitz though. I couldn't put an actual number on it, but you knew a lot of the times it was smoke and mirrors or "Fitzmagic" if you will. I definitely loved his grittiness and leadership though.

Not sure if I would label it smoke and mirrors but I completely agree that he has always taken a lot of chances and straddles the line of very good and very bad. But when he plays with Gailey I think he falls on the good side much more often.

This is part of the reason I thought it was crazy that anyone thought he was a good fit for den. They want to put their QB in a straight jacket and just run the ball. That doesn't play to Fitz's strengths at all. I would like to see him as the backup(and probably starter at some point) in DAL because he would get great protection and he would just throw the ball up and let Dez make plays. I think his mindset would work as the backup in ARZ but I'm not sure if his arm strength fits the offense all that well. ARZ is in such a SB window right now I'd love to see them with a competent backup if for no other reason if(when?) Palmer got slightly dinged they could actually rest him until he was full strength and still be able to win games. No wonder everyone was trying to trade up before them to draft Lynch.... their backups have been an abomination and really QB depth is one of the few weaknesses on that team.

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3 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

I would expect him to be near the league lead in dropped INTs last year, but if he had 15 dropped INTs, I fully expect just about every QB to have at least 5.

Just to be clear, 15 tipped passes is completely different than 15 dropped INT's.

I think a lot of it is he just throws to guys even when they are covered and expects to throw them open. That plays to the strengths of physical receivers like Marshall and Decker. Rivers is the same way, and if you watch many SD games you'll see Gates is not "open" most of the time Rivers is throwing the ball to him. That's one reason I think Rivers has always liked to throw to the Floyd(6'5"), Jackson(6'5"), and even Danario Alexander(6'5") when he was healthy. He's willing to put the ball in a place where his WR's can go get it even if there is a defender in the area. Seems like the way Fitz plays as well. 

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2 hours ago, Tool said:

I highly doubt that this was information the Jets weren't aware of.

I agree but its one thing to say "in our opinion, blah blah blah" vs. "look dude, even the guys on the tv are saying this".  It's just another log on the fire.  

 

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14 hours ago, BoltBacker said:

Just to be clear, 15 tipped passes is completely different than 15 dropped INT's.

I think a lot of it is he just throws to guys even when they are covered and expects to throw them open. That plays to the strengths of physical receivers like Marshall and Decker. Rivers is the same way, and if you watch many SD games you'll see Gates is not "open" most of the time Rivers is throwing the ball to him. That's one reason I think Rivers has always liked to throw to the Floyd(6'5"), Jackson(6'5"), and even Danario Alexander(6'5") when he was healthy. He's willing to put the ball in a place where his WR's can go get it even if there is a defender in the area. Seems like the way Fitz plays as well. 

Yeah, but that's something every NFL QB has to do a dozen times a game. I'd believe this excuse if it were being used for Geno Smith, but Fitz is way too smart and way too experienced not to know exactly what kinds of windows he can and can't fit the ball into on any given play.

As Meno alluded to earlier, raw intelligence (or even on-field intelligence) and rapid, accurate decision-making are completely different talents. Big Ben is in no danger of ever getting an all-expenses-paid trip to Stockholm, but he's fantastic at making quick decisions in the pocket. By contrast, I've long thought Fitz had a whole lot of the former and not quite enough of the latter.

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28 minutes ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

Yeah, but that's something every NFL QB has to do a dozen times a game. I'd believe this excuse if it were being used for Geno Smith, but Fitz is way too smart and way too experienced not to know exactly what kinds of windows he can and can't fit the ball into on any given play.

As Meno alluded to earlier, raw intelligence (or even on-field intelligence) and rapid, accurate decision-making are completely different talents. Big Ben is in no danger of ever getting an all-expenses-paid trip to Stockholm, but he's fantastic at making quick decisions in the pocket. By contrast, I've long thought Fitz had a whole lot of the former and not quite enough of the latter.

He overrates his own ability, and his own arm strength.  

I quietly picked up Geno Smith in a dynasty league recently.  

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Joe Namath has come out to say that even if Fitzaptrick signs now, he'll be backing up Geno based on the growth he's seen in Geno in minicamp. Of course that doesn't mean all that much, since Namath is not a deciosn maker for the organization but it says something about Geno's progress.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Joe Namath has come out to say that even if Fitzaptrick signs now, he'll be backing up Geno based on the growth he's seen in Geno in minicamp. Of course that doesn't mean all that much, since Namath is not a deciosn maker for the organization but it says something about Geno's progress.

Nice to hear, but any word on Joe's sobriety at the time of this statement? :suds:

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44 minutes ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

Yeah, but that's something every NFL QB has to do a dozen times a game. I'd believe this excuse if it were being used for Geno Smith, but Fitz is way too smart and way too experienced not to know exactly what kinds of windows he can and can't fit the ball into on any given play.

As Meno alluded to earlier, raw intelligence (or even on-field intelligence) and rapid, accurate decision-making are completely different talents. Big Ben is in no danger of ever getting an all-expenses-paid trip to Stockholm, but he's fantastic at making quick decisions in the pocket. By contrast, I've long thought Fitz had a whole lot of the former and not quite enough of the latter.

It may be required but not every QB can. One of the most obvious examples is Alex Smith, the criticism of him for years has been he will only pass to a guy that is open.... and in the NFL that is usually a guy around the LOS. It's one of the things that separated Winston and Mariota last year.

And, I agree the Jets would be smart to have Ben as their starting QB if they could(of course I dunno how they would pay him). But you are really comparing the decision making of Geno and Fitz, not the decision making of Fitz and a HOF QB. Whatever decision making Fitz used last year to get those results is light years better than we have seen from Geno up to this point. I think the people that were booing at the mention of Geno at the town hall I quoted earlier would tend to agree with me.

I think of the AFC as completely wide open, especially if Brady is suspended for a quarter of the season. And don't forget his age, donk fans were saying just a year and a half ago they thought Manning had "five years left" but it really doesn't work like that for 39yo's. Maybe TLEF316 is right and they have no hope this year no matter what they do. I guess they seem to be staring down the barrell of losing Ivory, Fitz, Wilkerson, Brick, Harrison and gaining Forte and Clady so he could be right.

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16 hours ago, BoltBacker said:

Just to be clear, 15 tipped passes is completely different than 15 dropped INT's.

I agree, but I think the quote said the passes "doinked off their hands" or something like that. To me, doink =/= tip, so I'm assuming these were legit drops the guy was talking about.

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21 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

 

Based on film study, ESPN's Ron Jaworski said free agent Ryan Fitzpatrick should have thrown 30 interceptions last year.

Jaws was unimpressed by Fitzpatrick's 2015 tape. "There were 15 [passes] that doinked off a linebacker's hand or safety's hand that should've been intercepted," said Jaworski. "He was a little bit lucky." Jaws criticized Fitzpatrick for his lack of consistency and attributed most of his success to Brandon Marshall's "phenomenal" play. Fitzpatrick certainly overachieved in 2015. It's very likely one of the reasons the Jets feel comfortable playing hardball in contract talks.

 

Another writer explained it with Gifs http://presnapreads.com/2016/03/29/2689/

And another on Twitter did as well... edwardgorelik  - I'll add the link when he finishes combining all the vids... 

What I find funny is... the people who spend countless hours re-watching every throw seem to come up with the "OMG.. HOLY #### Was this guy lucky" conclusion... the people going off memory with 10 wins and stats to look at, think Fitz is some key to the playoffs he's never ever been in.

I see countless people mocking the above writer for "Interceptables".... YET, when we all sit down and watch a team we're a fan of, we all know that feeling when you see a pass and your heart sinks and you go "OMG NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO........." then the D drops the ball and you have a feeling of relief.

I have no doubt in my mind that we all, as fans, know exactly what an "Interceptable" is in the heat of the moment...

But, go back and count them up and compare and analyze this "Stat" and ppl lose their minds "You can't do that..... You are insane... happens to ALL QB's"

Just some observations I find funny...

And yeah, Fitz was on some magic carpet ride last year, Locked into 1st reads just let it rip to 2 great WR's.... It's all on the tape.

Edited by Reaper
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saw a quote where joe namath thinks Geno's the better QB.  He was probably drunk, but still noteworthy.

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14 hours ago, Tool said:

saw a quote where joe namath thinks Geno's the better QB.  He was probably drunk, but still noteworthy.

http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view/2994711/joe-namath-o.gif

Sorry, but drunk Joe can produce no noteworthy quotes.

I'm not sure why any news source bothers to print his quotes. How many seasons did the guy have where he threw more TDs than INTs? Like 2 out of 12?

 

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1 hour ago, FF Ninja said:

http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view/2994711/joe-namath-o.gif

Sorry, but drunk Joe can produce no noteworthy quotes.

Exactly.

Can we even be sure he's sober enough to realize he isn't making a pass at Foxy Brown when he says nice things about Geno? I mean you look at the way he's leering at that teenage boy in the gif and you wonder what the world must look like through beer goggles that thick. It's Joe Freakin' Namath, shouldn't he have a lifetime pass for 7's at the very least?

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Just now, BoltBacker said:

Exactly.

Can we even be sure he's sober enough to realize he isn't making a pass at Foxy Brown when he says nice things about Geno? I mean you look at the way he's leering at that teenage boy in the gif and you wonder what the world must look like through beer goggles that thick. It's Joe Freakin' Namath, shouldn't he have a lifetime pass for 7's at the very least?

Holy crap. I thought I was the only sports fan who never found Suzie Kolber attractive. Good to know I'm no longer alone in that. :suds:

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Joe went to rehab after the Kolber incident and has been reportedly sober since. Like I said his opinion bears no weight, but it's a viewpoint that could have some validity.

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ESPN New York's Rich Cimini suggests the Muhammad Wilkerson deal could improve the chances the Jets re-sign free agent Ryan Fitzpatrick.

 

The Jets had only $3.4 in cap room before signing Wilkerson. Because that deal will lower his $15.7 million cap number by what Cimini anticipates as "a few million," it could free up more money to keep Fitzpatrick on a one-year deal. "The Jets haven't been keen on the idea of a one-year deal; perhaps this changes things," Cimini wrote. Locking up Wilkerson long term, then re-signing the Jets' starting quarterback would represent a big July for GM Mike Maccagnan.
Related: Jets
 
Source: ESPN New York 
Jul 15 - 10:27 PM

 

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Bleacher Report's Jason Cole reports free agent Ryan Fitzpatrick believes the Jets will "give in" and sign him following their deal with RE Muhammad Wilkerson.

 

The Wilkerson deal opened up some cap room, which the Jets could then use toward Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick is supposed to play in a celebrity golf tournament this weekend in Lake Tahoe, and things could then move quickly after that. But word from NFL Network's Ian Rapoport on Monday was the Jets wanted to see Geno Smith with the starters for some practice reps before re-upping Fitzpatrick. If they don't know what Smith already is, that's a concern.
 
Related: Jets
 
Jul 19 - 2:58 PM

 

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ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reports the Jets haven't negotiated with free agent Ryan Fitzpatrick in "over a month."

 

Not even the cap room created by Muhammad Wilkerson's extension has been able to get the ball rolling in talks. The sides still badly need each other, but it's possible bitterness has set in. If Fitz isn't back within the first few days of camp, things will really get serious.
Related: Jets
 
Jul 19 - 7:57 PM
 

 

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On 6/15/2016 at 4:57 PM, Tool said:

saw a quote where joe namath thinks Geno's the better QB.  He was probably drunk, but still noteworthy.

He always finds something different to say. Seems to get excited about being different and every time it got him on local news and in local papers. It's been going on like 20 years now and very tired.

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Man is this going to be a fun season to watch if the Jets don't get their heads out and ante up a bit more for Fitz. When Geno starts sailing passes into opponent's hands and the Jets start losing this will be high drama at its best, and all in the Big Apple no less.  Bringing on Forte, solidifying the D. Everything is there for them to take a run at unseating the Pats. Everything except a starting QB. 

 

Get out out your popcorn folks. Unless you are a Jets fan that is.

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Where do we stand on Marshall and Decker if it is Geno at QB? He did look fantasy good in his 1 start last season 27/42 265 yards 2 TDs 1 Int, 34 yards rushing against Oakland. It's not like Fitzpatrick is actually a good QB either. Is there a chance that in the Chan Gailey offense, Geno could be fine for fantasy? He still is a young QB at 25 with only 31 career games. 

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Geno had absolutely nothing to work with when he was a starter (they got decker his 2nd year but he was hurt a little bit and isn't a number 1 anyway).

I think geno could be productive for fantasy purposes but for real world football, I think he'll always melt down and make mental mistakes in big spots. Whether it's a bad INT or taking a sack at the worst possible moment (like he did against Oakland last year) he just can't be trusted. Very good physical tools but I don't think he has it upstairs.

That being said, I don't think starting him would cost the jets a playoff spot this year.  With the harder schedule,  likely regression from some aging vets and the key free agency departures I don't think they're winning 10 games anyway (and as last year showed, 10 isn't always enough anyway)

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4 minutes ago, TLEF316 said:

I think geno could be productive for fantasy purposes but for real world football, I think he'll always melt down and make mental mistakes in big spots. Whether it's a bad INT or taking a sack at the worst possible moment he just can't be trusted. Very good physical tools but I don't think he has it upstairs.

That being said, I don't think starting him would cost the jets a playoff spot this year.  With the harder schedule,  likely regression from some aging vets and the key free agency departures I don't think they're winning 10 games anyway (and as last year showed, 10 isn't always enough anyway)

I think all of that is true of Fitz as well. 

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19 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Where do we stand on Marshall and Decker if it is Geno at QB? He did look fantasy good in his 1 start last season 27/42 265 yards 2 TDs 1 Int, 34 yards rushing against Oakland. It's not like Fitzpatrick is actually a good QB either. Is there a chance that in the Chan Gailey offense, Geno could be fine for fantasy? He still is a young QB at 25 with only 31 career games. 

My take is Marshall would take a slight hit, but Decker takes a big hit.   No way for both WRs to maintain their ADPs if Geno is QB.   Marshall has produced all through his career regardless of who is the QB.   But Marshall would likely be more inconsistent than last year, because Geno would likely be inconsistent.  Also, if Geno is QB, I would think the Jets would be running the ball a lot more so that they try and limit Geno's mistakes.

With Geno at QB, Marshall would be a decent WR2 (with WR1 upside), and Decker is at best a WR3.

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54 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

Man is this going to be a fun season to watch if the Jets don't get their heads out and ante up a bit more for Fitz. When Geno starts sailing passes into opponent's hands and the Jets start losing this will be high drama at its best, and all in the Big Apple no less.  Bringing on Forte, solidifying the D. Everything is there for them to take a run at unseating the Pats. Everything except a starting QB. 

 

Get out out your popcorn folks. Unless you are a Jets fan that is.

 

Yeah Because the guy Who NEVER made the playoffs in over 10 years and has a horrible record VS good Defenses and barely beat 2 playoff teams the past 4 years.... (Geno did same in 2 years) When that Guy demands 14 Million dollars then still can't beat CIN @BUF @KCC SEA PIT ARZ There will be so much less drama...

Jets fans have stock in popcorn.... Either they pay 12 Mill + and struggle VS a top heavy schedule of Super Bowl contenders or they don't, we'll still have the popcorn.

I still think Fitz deal should be for 8 Million.... Give the guy a 5 Million dollar bonus if he makes it to his 1st Playoff game Ever... Give him another 2 Mill for every Playoff Win..

Guy Wins a playoff game he makes 15 Million with potentially more...

In reality I think team Fitz is scared #### looking at that Schedule knowing failure could mean his career is over instead of toiling around with ppl thinking he's "Smart" "Safe"

More reality is I think the Jets pony up starters QB money if they really thought Fitz made them a playoff contender....

If/When they do sign Fitz, they better print playoff tickets at the same time because you pay that money for the playoffs

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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34 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Where do we stand on Marshall and Decker if it is Geno at QB? He did look fantasy good in his 1 start last season 27/42 265 yards 2 TDs 1 Int, 34 yards rushing against Oakland. It's not like Fitzpatrick is actually a good QB either. Is there a chance that in the Chan Gailey offense, Geno could be fine for fantasy? He still is a young QB at 25 with only 31 career games. 

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Eric Decker's PPR ranking in his 12 healthy weeks with Geno in 2014= WR10 Eric Decker's PPR ranking w/ the great white hope in 2015= WR10

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