You seem to be ignoring something here.Beltre has had 2.5 good seasons in his career.
How many 3K hitters are not in?Using pro-rated 2011 stats, Bill James' Favorite Toy model gives Beltre a 22% chance of reaching 3000 hits. This is up from 16% a year ago. It's not inconceivable but Beltre has always had problems staying healthy.3000 doesn't necessarily make him a Hall of Famer though.
Four.Pete Rose, Derek Jeter, Craig Biggio, Rafael PalmeiroHow many 3K hitters are not in?Using pro-rated 2011 stats, Bill James' Favorite Toy model gives Beltre a 22% chance of reaching 3000 hits. This is up from 16% a year ago. It's not inconceivable but Beltre has always had problems staying healthy.3000 doesn't necessarily make him a Hall of Famer though.
Beltre's current .275 lifetime average would be the lowest among members of the 3,000 hit club. It's likely to regress a bit towards the end of his career.His MVP shares and All Star record is less impressive than even Thome's. Beltre's one pantheon year also fell during the height of the steroid era.Four.Pete Rose, Derek Jeter, Craig Biggio, Rafael PalmeiroHow many 3K hitters are not in?Using pro-rated 2011 stats, Bill James' Favorite Toy model gives Beltre a 22% chance of reaching 3000 hits. This is up from 16% a year ago. It's not inconceivable but Beltre has always had problems staying healthy.3000 doesn't necessarily make him a Hall of Famer though.
Rose is banned, Jeter will be in. Palmeiro has the numbers but the cheating will hurt him. Biggio always reminded me of just a real solid player.. not HOF type. Can`t argue with the 3k though.Four.Pete Rose, Derek Jeter, Craig Biggio, Rafael PalmeiroHow many 3K hitters are not in?Using pro-rated 2011 stats, Bill James' Favorite Toy model gives Beltre a 22% chance of reaching 3000 hits. This is up from 16% a year ago. It's not inconceivable but Beltre has always had problems staying healthy.3000 doesn't necessarily make him a Hall of Famer though.
This is insane. He's a lock.Don't think Biggio will get in.
Should be, but dumb voters do like the RBIThis is insane. He's a lock.Don't think Biggio will get in.
Lou Whitaker but in the steroid era.This is insane. He's a lock.Don't think Biggio will get in.
Sure man.Lou Whitaker but in the steroid era.This is insane. He's a lock.Don't think Biggio will get in.
This is insane. He's a lock.Don't think Biggio will get in.
Beltre is having a better year than Biggio or Whitaker(Sort of) Midseason update for Beltre:2012 -- .322/.352/.525 with 17 HRsCareer - .278/.330/.471 with 327 HRs and 2142 hitsHe's in his year 33 season.
Bill James' favorite toy
Not their given names...There has however been elected a Dazzy and a Pud.
But it is the name they went in with.Not their given names...There has however been elected a Dazzy and a Pud.
Adrian Dantley was recently elected to the basketball hall of fame. Maybe baseball writers will follow their lead in breaking through the Adrian barrier.Won't happen. There has never been an Adrian elected to the Hall of Fame.There has however been elected a Dazzy, an Eppa, and a Pud.
Bump up as we are about to start the season. Assuming he stays healthy - HOF lock.End of Season Update -Just a ho-hum .921 OPS with 36 HRs and another gold glove.Career - .280/.331/.476 with 346 HRs and 2227 hits. 4 gold gloves.Hall of fame lock.
If you pro-rate his partial 2013 stats over 155 games and run the updated numbers against Bill James' Favorite Toy, it gives him a 97% chance at reaching 450 and a 67% chance of reaching 500. That would move him into lock territory unless some PED allegations arise. He still needs to finish strong though. Any major injury now hurts his chances even if he returns at full strength.3000 hits a real possibility at this point. 400+ HRs, maybe 450 which would get him into the top 40 of all-time.
His defense is going to set him apart from others at his position during this time. Still some work to do, but I see him going in.
Update: now has a 64% chance of reaching 500 HRs and a 97% chance at 3,000 hits.Bill James' favorite toy now gives Beltre a 52% chance of reaching 3,000 hits and 83% chance of 450 HRs.
That seems high. If he hits 12 more homers this year (for a total of 21, which is greater than either of the last 2 years), he will still need 3 more seasons of 22 HR to get to 500. How is that % calculated?Update: now has a 64% chance of reaching 500 HRs and a 97% chance at 3,000 hits.
Will get to 3000 hits sometime next year.Things that will not happen for $1000 Alex
Thats called longevityWill get to 3000 hits sometime next year.
Definitely getting in
cool
he is still getting in
Agreed, my original post about him not getting in was from 2011
He's a 100% lock.
1) Longevity is important.
2) You can't just show up every day for 20 years and get 3000 hits. You actually, you know, have to get a lot of hits. For a lot of years.