What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

My 2014 All Overperform and All Underperform Teams (1 Viewer)

Notorious T.R.E.

Showdown!™ Administrator
Heard the nerds doing this on XM fantasy radio, so I figured why not steal it and do one of my own. Feel free to post yours:

I'll do this for a standard/avg league since that's what most ADPs are for.

Under-performers (do not meet expectations/draft value)

C - Jonathan Lucroy (ADP 82) - Going two picks after McCann, who I like in NY. I don't trust the power, his ISO is much higher than his minor league numbers over the last year and a half. The 9 stolen bases last year seem an aberration as well. Would rather have Wieters (102) or Ramos (134)

1B - Allen Craig (ADP 56) - Has 35 homers in his last 253 games. Hit .315 powered by a .368 BABIP last season. Line drive rate last year was 5% higher than the year prior.

2B - Ian Kinsler (ADP 66) - Average hopped up from the 250s to the 270s last year, but he still just had 13 homers and 15 steals. His R/RBI will still be there because he's a part of another high powered offense, but he's in a less HR friendly park and he's 32. Do you want a 5th round pick that hits .260 12-70-90-15?

3B - Josh Donaldson (ADP 70) - Had a breakout year where he had a .333 BABIP and his HR/FB % jumped from 11 to 14%.

SS - Starlin Castro (ADP 124) - I think he's flaming out in Chicago...maybe if he heads elsewhere he'll have a revival, but until then I'm avoiding. .244 with 10 homers and 9 steals last year, but still just 24 years old. When he did steal 25 bases the year prior he was caught 13 times! Having hammy troubles this spring as well. I just let someone else reach for him.

OF - Starling Marte (55) - Hit 280 on a 363 BABIP last year. Much of his value is tied to his 41 steals.

OF - Billy Hamilton (63) - Hit just 256 in AAA. Is this guy really that much more valuable than a Rajai Davis or Leonys Martin?

OF - Alex Rios (33) http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/how-can-you-trust-a-player-like-alex-rios/

SP - Zack Greinke (62) - Hurt too much, scary drop in K rate in 2013 too. (7.5/9)

SP - Mat Latos (107) - Knee, Elbow, pitched through injury last year so he might feel like doing it again. Sweet tattoos, but I let someone else have him this year.

SP - Matt Moore (132) - Still walks too many and it doesn't look like it will ever change. WHIP killer.

RP - David Robertson (115) - Leash is short in NY and he's a little powder-keggy. Too scary for the 9th RP imo.

RP - Fernando Rodney (173) - Besides being a loon he doesn't have the control or stuff he had just two years ago. I don't think he makes it through June.

Over-performers (exceed draft value/position)

C - Yan Gomes (196) - Santana at 3B means more Yan for you. 11 homers and a BABIP aided 294 average last year in 88 games. I could see him hitting 275 with 18-20 homers.

1B - Adam Lind (239) - His walk rate climbed back to 2009 roidy levels. Seems like a very cheap source of 20 homers and 75 rbi with an avg/obp that doesn't kill you.

2B - Brian Dozier (199) - 18 homers and 14 steals last year with decent R/RBI and a craptastic 244 average. That's damn close to 6th rounder Ian Kinsler numbers though. He walked 51 times last year and has the potential to get a little luckier on the BABIP side of things

3B - Nolan Arenado (178) - Posted just a 7.1% HR/FB rate despite playing in Coors. Having a great spring and I think he's got the bat for 16-20 homers.

SS - Xander Bogaerts (165) - Has the pedigree, playing time and park. (3 Ps! - feel free to use that) Still growing into his 6'3" frame, but I expect a decent average/obp, around 15 homers and maybe 10-12 steals. I hope he runs more, but feel like the Sawx don't need him to. He has great plate discipline already at a young age.

OF - Mark Trumbo (59) - No one hits homers anymore and this guy does. Plus, he moves to the NL. He hit 34 homers in the AL when he hit .234 last year. Imagine what he can do if he hits say 260 in the NL...40+ homers? Stanton is going around 27 and I think Trumbo could be the west coast version.

OF - Jayson Heyward (73) - Not sure about the leading off thing, but I've always liked this guy (who hasn't?) and perhaps his elbow is finally willing to cooperate. It's getting to now or never for the big breakout year, I'm guessing now.

OF - Curtis Granderson (151) - A healthy Grandy means 30 homers to me. Even in that stupid Mets park. Plus he'll run a bit for fun. He'll kill your average some, but what do you want at 151?

SP - Masahiro Tanaka (105) - I don't think he's Yu Darvish, but he might be Yu-Lite. He has a million pitches like Yu and is very good at confusing hitters. I like him at 105.

SP - AJ Burnett (209) - Burnett stays in the NL, albeit in a tougher park in Philly. Still, you have to love the Ks. Who wouldn't be ecstatic with 15 wins, 190 Ks and a 3.60 ERA in the 17th round? Seems doable.

SP - Dan Straily (250) - We love Oakland pitchers and this guy has shown monster K ability in the minors and flashed some unhittablenessocity late last year. He has a plus slider and a plus change and I think he's close to a breakthrough.

RP - Nate Jones (218) - Big fastball (97.7) and a lot of Ks (89) last year. He allowed a .330 BABIP and a 4.15 ERA, but his fielding independant ERA was 2.64. I love getting him late and have in several leagues, so I hope he doesn't suck. :)

RP - .Danny Farquhar/Cody Allen (288 and 313) - Two very good relievers backing up veteran closers that are a few bad outings away from losing their jobs. Great late round grabs. Farquhar had a 1.86 FIP and a 12.77 K/9 with a 95 fastball/cutter and a great curve. Allen had a 11.26 K/9 over 70 innings with a mid 90s fastball and a plus breaking ball.

 

Northern Voice

Footballguy
Heard the nerds doing this on XM fantasy radio, so I figured why not steal it and do one of my own. Feel free to post yours:

I'll do this for a standard/avg league since that's what most ADPs are for.

Under-performers (do not meet expectations/draft value)

OF - Billy Hamilton (63) - Hit just 256 in AAA. Is this guy really that much more valuable than a Rajai Davis
Agree with almost all but none more than this one. I've got Rajai in almost every league I'm in, usually about 200 picks after Hamilton and I don't get it, especially if Davis gets regular PAs to start the year.

 

Doctor Detroit

Please remove your headgear
Agree on Kinsler, Marte, Rios and especially Matt Moore.

Hoping Straily is going to be good since I got him in my home league for a song, but his Astros/non-Astros splits do worry me. I'll proceed with caution but he's at least going to be in lineup against the Stros. :thumbup:

Lind seems like a solid utility option IMO, and a decent fill option at CIF if you need it. Not a Tanaka fan although these Japanese pitchers have great year 1 upside. Still seems too high at 105 though.

 

Eephus

Footballguy
I'm torn on Hamilton.

I played rotisserie baseball when Coleman, Raines and Henderson were playing. The big difference then was that there were a bunch of guys who would put up 60+ SBs. Last year only Ellsbury topped 50 and seven others stole 40. If Hamilton can play every day and hit a little, he could lap the field. So there's high potential gain.

Hamilton may be able to win you SB all by himself but that comes with risk of injury or demotion. If that happens, your strong category turns into a weakness. He's not on any of my teams in large part because I don't like that much risk in a high pick. I'm also generally not a fan of drafting pure speed OFs because it takes a power bat out of a power slot.

 

MAC_32

Footballguy
I'm torn on Hamilton.I played rotisserie baseball when Coleman, Raines and Henderson were playing. The big difference then was that there were a bunch of guys who would put up 60+ SBs. Last year only Ellsbury topped 50 and seven others stole 40. If Hamilton can play every day and hit a little, he could lap the field. So there's high potential gain.Hamilton may be able to win you SB all by himself but that comes with risk of injury or demotion. If that happens, your strong category turns into a weakness. He's not on any of my teams in large part because I don't like that much risk in a high pick. I'm also generally not a fan of drafting pure speed OFs because it takes a power bat out of a power slot.
steals will be there in May if you need them, they always are, you only need to do well in steals you don't need to dominate them.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Smack Tripper

Footballguy
Thoughts on rasmus?

I'm on the Jonathan schoop bandwagon
I like Schoop in real-life but I don't know what he brings to a fantasy team.

I'd pick Rasmus if he fell a couple of rounds beyond his ADP but I sure wouldn't reach for him.
Hell, Rasmus went undrafted in my league...
I heard Buck raving about Schoop, I'll be keeping an eye on him, supposed to get time at 2b and 3b. I always like guys with flexibility and I also play in a CI/MI league (in addition to the other IF spots) so if he gains eligibility at both spots I like a guy like him off the bench.

I took Rasmus at around 290 in a league, desperation pickup for me, he's my starting damn DH right now, I missed on a couple of guys I was going for so I'm scouring and praying and preying on that early wire. I think he is what he is and thats not much, definitely not a fantasy starter but I think he's worth rostering. I'm just looking for some miracle hope the light went on for the guy at age 27. He had an ok year last year but he's up and down.

 

Northern Voice

Footballguy
Rasmus is also looking at a $100+ million contract if he has a decent season, if you think that sort of thing matters,
Maybe in 2004 Canadian dollars
I hope you're right. Everyone up here expects him to take off on a 6/7 year/$100 million+ contract after the season. 6th in WAR last year, 5th in DRS for CF's, I'd think the absolute floor is BJ Upton's deal.

 
Last edited by a moderator:

Eephus

Footballguy
Rasmus is also looking at a $100+ million contract if he has a decent season, if you think that sort of thing matters,
Maybe in 2004 Canadian dollars
I hope you're right. Everyone up here expects him to take off on a 6/7 year/$100 million+ contract after the season. 6th in WAR last year, 5th in DRS for CF's, I'd think the absolute floor is BJ Upton's deal.
A CF who can hit is a valuable commodity but I don't see him getting a bigger deal than Hunter Pence did. Rasmus needs to stay healthy and hit lefties better.

 

MAC_32

Footballguy
Rasmus is also looking at a $100+ million contract if he has a decent season, if you think that sort of thing matters,
Maybe in 2004 Canadian dollars
I hope you're right. Everyone up here expects him to take off on a 6/7 year/$100 million+ contract after the season. 6th in WAR last year, 5th in DRS for CF's, I'd think the absolute floor is BJ Upton's deal.
wouldn't be a Vernon Wells type of mistake, but could end up in a similar conversation. As mentioned above, gotta stay healthy and hit lefties.
 

MAC_32

Footballguy
I have Pujols, Longoria, Lincecum, Tyson Ross, Corey Dickerson, Michael Morse, Jean Segura, Justin Morneau, AJ Burnett, Austin Jackson, and Josh Johnson on at least three teams each.

McCann, Yan Gomes, Mesoraco, Hosmer, Kinsler, Gyorko, Asdrubal, Cuddyer, Sonny Gray, Masterson, Kluber, and Ethier on two each.

I guess I see them as over performer's.

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top