Notorious T.R.E.
Showdown!™ Administrator
Heard the nerds doing this on XM fantasy radio, so I figured why not steal it and do one of my own. Feel free to post yours:
I'll do this for a standard/avg league since that's what most ADPs are for.
Under-performers (do not meet expectations/draft value)
C - Jonathan Lucroy (ADP 82) - Going two picks after McCann, who I like in NY. I don't trust the power, his ISO is much higher than his minor league numbers over the last year and a half. The 9 stolen bases last year seem an aberration as well. Would rather have Wieters (102) or Ramos (134)
1B - Allen Craig (ADP 56) - Has 35 homers in his last 253 games. Hit .315 powered by a .368 BABIP last season. Line drive rate last year was 5% higher than the year prior.
2B - Ian Kinsler (ADP 66) - Average hopped up from the 250s to the 270s last year, but he still just had 13 homers and 15 steals. His R/RBI will still be there because he's a part of another high powered offense, but he's in a less HR friendly park and he's 32. Do you want a 5th round pick that hits .260 12-70-90-15?
3B - Josh Donaldson (ADP 70) - Had a breakout year where he had a .333 BABIP and his HR/FB % jumped from 11 to 14%.
SS - Starlin Castro (ADP 124) - I think he's flaming out in Chicago...maybe if he heads elsewhere he'll have a revival, but until then I'm avoiding. .244 with 10 homers and 9 steals last year, but still just 24 years old. When he did steal 25 bases the year prior he was caught 13 times! Having hammy troubles this spring as well. I just let someone else reach for him.
OF - Starling Marte (55) - Hit 280 on a 363 BABIP last year. Much of his value is tied to his 41 steals.
OF - Billy Hamilton (63) - Hit just 256 in AAA. Is this guy really that much more valuable than a Rajai Davis or Leonys Martin?
OF - Alex Rios (33) http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/how-can-you-trust-a-player-like-alex-rios/
SP - Zack Greinke (62) - Hurt too much, scary drop in K rate in 2013 too. (7.5/9)
SP - Mat Latos (107) - Knee, Elbow, pitched through injury last year so he might feel like doing it again. Sweet tattoos, but I let someone else have him this year.
SP - Matt Moore (132) - Still walks too many and it doesn't look like it will ever change. WHIP killer.
RP - David Robertson (115) - Leash is short in NY and he's a little powder-keggy. Too scary for the 9th RP imo.
RP - Fernando Rodney (173) - Besides being a loon he doesn't have the control or stuff he had just two years ago. I don't think he makes it through June.
Over-performers (exceed draft value/position)
C - Yan Gomes (196) - Santana at 3B means more Yan for you. 11 homers and a BABIP aided 294 average last year in 88 games. I could see him hitting 275 with 18-20 homers.
1B - Adam Lind (239) - His walk rate climbed back to 2009 roidy levels. Seems like a very cheap source of 20 homers and 75 rbi with an avg/obp that doesn't kill you.
2B - Brian Dozier (199) - 18 homers and 14 steals last year with decent R/RBI and a craptastic 244 average. That's damn close to 6th rounder Ian Kinsler numbers though. He walked 51 times last year and has the potential to get a little luckier on the BABIP side of things
3B - Nolan Arenado (178) - Posted just a 7.1% HR/FB rate despite playing in Coors. Having a great spring and I think he's got the bat for 16-20 homers.
SS - Xander Bogaerts (165) - Has the pedigree, playing time and park. (3 Ps! - feel free to use that) Still growing into his 6'3" frame, but I expect a decent average/obp, around 15 homers and maybe 10-12 steals. I hope he runs more, but feel like the Sawx don't need him to. He has great plate discipline already at a young age.
OF - Mark Trumbo (59) - No one hits homers anymore and this guy does. Plus, he moves to the NL. He hit 34 homers in the AL when he hit .234 last year. Imagine what he can do if he hits say 260 in the NL...40+ homers? Stanton is going around 27 and I think Trumbo could be the west coast version.
OF - Jayson Heyward (73) - Not sure about the leading off thing, but I've always liked this guy (who hasn't?) and perhaps his elbow is finally willing to cooperate. It's getting to now or never for the big breakout year, I'm guessing now.
OF - Curtis Granderson (151) - A healthy Grandy means 30 homers to me. Even in that stupid Mets park. Plus he'll run a bit for fun. He'll kill your average some, but what do you want at 151?
SP - Masahiro Tanaka (105) - I don't think he's Yu Darvish, but he might be Yu-Lite. He has a million pitches like Yu and is very good at confusing hitters. I like him at 105.
SP - AJ Burnett (209) - Burnett stays in the NL, albeit in a tougher park in Philly. Still, you have to love the Ks. Who wouldn't be ecstatic with 15 wins, 190 Ks and a 3.60 ERA in the 17th round? Seems doable.
SP - Dan Straily (250) - We love Oakland pitchers and this guy has shown monster K ability in the minors and flashed some unhittablenessocity late last year. He has a plus slider and a plus change and I think he's close to a breakthrough.
RP - Nate Jones (218) - Big fastball (97.7) and a lot of Ks (89) last year. He allowed a .330 BABIP and a 4.15 ERA, but his fielding independant ERA was 2.64. I love getting him late and have in several leagues, so I hope he doesn't suck.
RP - .Danny Farquhar/Cody Allen (288 and 313) - Two very good relievers backing up veteran closers that are a few bad outings away from losing their jobs. Great late round grabs. Farquhar had a 1.86 FIP and a 12.77 K/9 with a 95 fastball/cutter and a great curve. Allen had a 11.26 K/9 over 70 innings with a mid 90s fastball and a plus breaking ball.
I'll do this for a standard/avg league since that's what most ADPs are for.
Under-performers (do not meet expectations/draft value)
C - Jonathan Lucroy (ADP 82) - Going two picks after McCann, who I like in NY. I don't trust the power, his ISO is much higher than his minor league numbers over the last year and a half. The 9 stolen bases last year seem an aberration as well. Would rather have Wieters (102) or Ramos (134)
1B - Allen Craig (ADP 56) - Has 35 homers in his last 253 games. Hit .315 powered by a .368 BABIP last season. Line drive rate last year was 5% higher than the year prior.
2B - Ian Kinsler (ADP 66) - Average hopped up from the 250s to the 270s last year, but he still just had 13 homers and 15 steals. His R/RBI will still be there because he's a part of another high powered offense, but he's in a less HR friendly park and he's 32. Do you want a 5th round pick that hits .260 12-70-90-15?
3B - Josh Donaldson (ADP 70) - Had a breakout year where he had a .333 BABIP and his HR/FB % jumped from 11 to 14%.
SS - Starlin Castro (ADP 124) - I think he's flaming out in Chicago...maybe if he heads elsewhere he'll have a revival, but until then I'm avoiding. .244 with 10 homers and 9 steals last year, but still just 24 years old. When he did steal 25 bases the year prior he was caught 13 times! Having hammy troubles this spring as well. I just let someone else reach for him.
OF - Starling Marte (55) - Hit 280 on a 363 BABIP last year. Much of his value is tied to his 41 steals.
OF - Billy Hamilton (63) - Hit just 256 in AAA. Is this guy really that much more valuable than a Rajai Davis or Leonys Martin?
OF - Alex Rios (33) http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/how-can-you-trust-a-player-like-alex-rios/
SP - Zack Greinke (62) - Hurt too much, scary drop in K rate in 2013 too. (7.5/9)
SP - Mat Latos (107) - Knee, Elbow, pitched through injury last year so he might feel like doing it again. Sweet tattoos, but I let someone else have him this year.
SP - Matt Moore (132) - Still walks too many and it doesn't look like it will ever change. WHIP killer.
RP - David Robertson (115) - Leash is short in NY and he's a little powder-keggy. Too scary for the 9th RP imo.
RP - Fernando Rodney (173) - Besides being a loon he doesn't have the control or stuff he had just two years ago. I don't think he makes it through June.
Over-performers (exceed draft value/position)
C - Yan Gomes (196) - Santana at 3B means more Yan for you. 11 homers and a BABIP aided 294 average last year in 88 games. I could see him hitting 275 with 18-20 homers.
1B - Adam Lind (239) - His walk rate climbed back to 2009 roidy levels. Seems like a very cheap source of 20 homers and 75 rbi with an avg/obp that doesn't kill you.
2B - Brian Dozier (199) - 18 homers and 14 steals last year with decent R/RBI and a craptastic 244 average. That's damn close to 6th rounder Ian Kinsler numbers though. He walked 51 times last year and has the potential to get a little luckier on the BABIP side of things
3B - Nolan Arenado (178) - Posted just a 7.1% HR/FB rate despite playing in Coors. Having a great spring and I think he's got the bat for 16-20 homers.
SS - Xander Bogaerts (165) - Has the pedigree, playing time and park. (3 Ps! - feel free to use that) Still growing into his 6'3" frame, but I expect a decent average/obp, around 15 homers and maybe 10-12 steals. I hope he runs more, but feel like the Sawx don't need him to. He has great plate discipline already at a young age.
OF - Mark Trumbo (59) - No one hits homers anymore and this guy does. Plus, he moves to the NL. He hit 34 homers in the AL when he hit .234 last year. Imagine what he can do if he hits say 260 in the NL...40+ homers? Stanton is going around 27 and I think Trumbo could be the west coast version.
OF - Jayson Heyward (73) - Not sure about the leading off thing, but I've always liked this guy (who hasn't?) and perhaps his elbow is finally willing to cooperate. It's getting to now or never for the big breakout year, I'm guessing now.
OF - Curtis Granderson (151) - A healthy Grandy means 30 homers to me. Even in that stupid Mets park. Plus he'll run a bit for fun. He'll kill your average some, but what do you want at 151?
SP - Masahiro Tanaka (105) - I don't think he's Yu Darvish, but he might be Yu-Lite. He has a million pitches like Yu and is very good at confusing hitters. I like him at 105.
SP - AJ Burnett (209) - Burnett stays in the NL, albeit in a tougher park in Philly. Still, you have to love the Ks. Who wouldn't be ecstatic with 15 wins, 190 Ks and a 3.60 ERA in the 17th round? Seems doable.
SP - Dan Straily (250) - We love Oakland pitchers and this guy has shown monster K ability in the minors and flashed some unhittablenessocity late last year. He has a plus slider and a plus change and I think he's close to a breakthrough.
RP - Nate Jones (218) - Big fastball (97.7) and a lot of Ks (89) last year. He allowed a .330 BABIP and a 4.15 ERA, but his fielding independant ERA was 2.64. I love getting him late and have in several leagues, so I hope he doesn't suck.
RP - .Danny Farquhar/Cody Allen (288 and 313) - Two very good relievers backing up veteran closers that are a few bad outings away from losing their jobs. Great late round grabs. Farquhar had a 1.86 FIP and a 12.77 K/9 with a 95 fastball/cutter and a great curve. Allen had a 11.26 K/9 over 70 innings with a mid 90s fastball and a plus breaking ball.
