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WR Josh Gordon, KC (13 Viewers)
- Thread starter Matt Waldman
- Start date
Sebowski
Footballguy
I keep seeing people say this. Gordon got almost all of his snaps when Dorsett got banged up. They probably only have him learning one spot. That's why he was only in on 20 of 71 offensive snaps and only had 4 targets (and was the 8th Patriot to catch a pass).
when he was in it didnt look like he was going full speed... not about to log in to gamepass to actually confirm but that is what it looked like on the broadcast. he didnt seem to be giving full effort off the line each snap. also agree if not for dorsett getting dinged up snaps may be in the 10-15 range
rockaction
Footballguy
I agree with Sebowski's assessment of a really low snap count, but it wasn't just Dorsett being out that got him more. That I gently disagree with. He got maybe three or four more snaps out of that. I watched pretty carefully. Plus, I'm surprised Mike Reiss had him at twenty. I thought it was about 25. Next time I'll certainly have a pen handy.
I also disagree he wasn't going full bore. What was happening was he was trying to get cadence and was almost flinching at the line trying not to cause a false start. He also was getting immediate press coverage and had a cover two going on with him every time he was out there. That'll make it look like lack of effort, but I keyed in on him the whole time, and I'm not sure -- not that it couldn't be -- that's at all what it was. Like you said, though, I'd have to watch Game Pass or All 22, and I don't subscribe to it.
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Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
All the signs point to him having already having a good grasp of the playbook. BB has been making comments about his intelligence and ability to pick it up quickly. Brady doesn't throw that ball if he doesn't have some trust in the WR.
ETA I expect major changes in the offense coming before the next game. The Pats are in overhaul mode the next 10 days.
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Football Jones
Footballguy
Football Jones
Footballguy
The bigger picture here is long-term value.
If Gordon gets his #### together, look the F out in 2019.
If Gordon gets his #### together, look the F out in 2019.
Football Jones
Footballguy
Yep, Gordon is rather articulate. Interesting video on youtube (a recent interview). This cat aint dumb.
My guess is he's intelligent & should pick up the playbook rather quickly (or at least as fast as can be expected).
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trader jake
Footballguy
You think Bundchen wants Tommy to retire now...that may push it to ultimatum territory.
They put up 38 pts. 2 games in a row- they aren't going into "overhaul mode" because people want Gordon to score more points for their magic football team.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The snap counts from the game are pretty interesting.
Gronk 63 (91%)
Hogan 63 (91%)
Edelman 48 (70%)
Dorsett 41 (62%)
Gordon 18 (26%)
Allen 12 (17%)
Patterson 8 (12%)
Hollister 4 (6%)
Slater 2 (3%)
We'll have to see how things shake out, but Patterson doesn't look like he is a regular part of the offense and is mostly in for only certain types of plays. I would expect Dorsett will begin to lose snaps to Edelman and Gordon. Hogan is well versed enough to play all spots on all plays, so he may have more utility than the other guys (but if he keeps causing interceptions he will be selling beer in the stands soon).
Not sure why Hogan hasn't been more involved yet. Clearly he is not cut out to be a #1 WR as he had been in the first few games, but he seems like a good mismatch on a 3rd CB, a safety, or a LBer.
White ultimately may be the one who things benefit the most. Teams will have to cover the other guys and leave a LB on White out of the backfield which has done nothing so far in terms of stopping him.
Gronk 63 (91%)
Hogan 63 (91%)
Edelman 48 (70%)
Dorsett 41 (62%)
Gordon 18 (26%)
Allen 12 (17%)
Patterson 8 (12%)
Hollister 4 (6%)
Slater 2 (3%)
We'll have to see how things shake out, but Patterson doesn't look like he is a regular part of the offense and is mostly in for only certain types of plays. I would expect Dorsett will begin to lose snaps to Edelman and Gordon. Hogan is well versed enough to play all spots on all plays, so he may have more utility than the other guys (but if he keeps causing interceptions he will be selling beer in the stands soon).
Not sure why Hogan hasn't been more involved yet. Clearly he is not cut out to be a #1 WR as he had been in the first few games, but he seems like a good mismatch on a 3rd CB, a safety, or a LBer.
White ultimately may be the one who things benefit the most. Teams will have to cover the other guys and leave a LB on White out of the backfield which has done nothing so far in terms of stopping him.
Chaka
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Yeah, I don't think they're overhauling an offense that scored 38 points each game in consecutive weeks, but game flow might change the personnel groupings and snap counts a bit. Plus, ten more days with the playbook.
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Chaka
Footballguy
Three games without Gordon: 1 win 2 losses, 57 points scored.
They put up 38 pts. 2 games in a row- they aren't going into "overhaul mode" because people want Gordon to score more points for their magic football team.
Two games with Gordon: 2 wins 0 losses, 76 points scored.
That's math.
rockaction
Footballguy
Much like the slippery slope fallacy, people often use this wrong. Correlation without causation is an empirical argument about inductive reasoning. As more evidence accrues, we can start to infer (in the loose logical sense of the word) things by the correlation itself. That the correlation becomes so strong that it is implied or, while not provable, evidence that a causes b. Not proof. That would be deductive reasoning. Inductive reasoning can never be proven because there's simply no way for empiricism to be thoroughly certain of any premise, never mind conclusion.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
From Wiki:
Usage
In logic, the technical use of the word "implies" means "is a sufficient circumstance for." This is the meaning intended by statisticians when they say causation is not certain. Indeed, p implies q has the technical meaning of the material conditional: if p then q symbolized as p → q. That is "if circumstance p is true, then q follows." In this sense, it is always correct to say "Correlation does not imply causation."
However, in casual use, the word "implies" loosely means suggests rather than requires. The idea that correlation and causation are connected is certainly true; where there is causation, there is a likely correlation. Indeed, correlation is used when inferring causation; the important point is that such inferences are made after correlations are confirmed as real and all causational relationship are systematically explored using large enough data sets.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
And thus the problem here is not Chaka's reasoning, which is a totally valid exercise in trying to determine an inference of causation. It's just not a large enough data set either way.
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Chaka
Footballguy
No, those are facts. Those things actually happened. You can draw your own conclusions.
Chaka
Footballguy
Well they completely changed what worked from Miami to Indy so it isn't entirely unprecedented.
rockaction
Footballguy
Fair point.
That's logic, then. I did ignore the "math" part. I took it colloquially, which is how I think he intended it.
In fairness to everybody, I still don't think that:
- You can make that assessment yet, because the data set is too small
- It's been solely Gordon causing a 100% increase in scoring since his addition
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Meh. I'm not buying that Gordon stepped in and suddenly they have a superhuman offense. Change the order of the games and I think the same things would have happened in them.
Gordon would not have had a major impact playing AT Jacksonville and Gordon with a bigger role wouldn't change Patricia having full knowledge of the NE playbook playing AT Detroit.
Play Miami and Indianapolis earlier in the season AT HOME and they would have likely scored 70 points with or without Gordon. They play much better at home.
Gordon would not have had a major impact playing AT Jacksonville and Gordon with a bigger role wouldn't change Patricia having full knowledge of the NE playbook playing AT Detroit.
Play Miami and Indianapolis earlier in the season AT HOME and they would have likely scored 70 points with or without Gordon. They play much better at home.
rockaction
Footballguy
And logic can be math, just written math...
Definitions are math when we mark up a logic exercise
Brevity is the soul of wit
Brevity = soul of wit
Definitions are math when we mark up a logic exercise
Brevity is the soul of wit
Brevity = soul of wit
Chaka
Footballguy
No, you called it what it wasn't kinda like you're saying I did.
Actually that's exactly what you said I did.
But at least you recognized that I was being tongue-in-cheek about it which is nice. Of course that makes it odd that you pursued it and offer that I followed up on your oddness which you double downed on with @rockaction and...dam this just got weird and a lot less fun.
Thanks @Bazinga!
Chaka
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
I'm actually having fun. I love logic!
The science of tautologies, an old professor used to call it.
Fun!
rockaction
Footballguy
They were averaging 19 without him, 38 with him in the smallest of sample sizes and with no ceteris paribus and that posted without me finishing my thought.
He's gotta have something to do with it. He has gained 82 yards and gone for a ridiculous touchdown.
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Chaka
Footballguy
Y'know @Bazinga!, I apologize. I realize that Gordon outscoring both Edelman and Gronk has to be a big blow to your anti @Soulfly3 narrative and you are just trying to come to grips with the possibility that Gordon may actually produce at a high level again.
But please rest assured that the season is long and the off-season is longer so there is plenty of time for Gordon to #### his last opportunity all to hell by being...a flawed human being with addiction problems and, likely, mental disease.
But please rest assured that the season is long and the off-season is longer so there is plenty of time for Gordon to #### his last opportunity all to hell by being...a flawed human being with addiction problems and, likely, mental disease.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
They played two road games (where they usually play worse than at home). Included in that they played the #1 defense in the league. They traditional hang 30-35+ points on the Fins at home and have usually hung 40+ on the Colts playing in NE. People can tell whatever story they want I suppose.
rockaction
Footballguy
I think his future usage lies somewhere in the middle of the pro-Gordon/cynics on the board.
No way Hogan, as spotty as his effectiveness is, sees 63 snaps to Gordon's 18 next time. I can't see that happening. Nor does Dorsett get 43, though he ran a nice out route before he got dinged.
It's like BassNBrew, jvdesigns2002, and Anarchy99 have been saying all along. It's a great organizational situation for Mr. Gordon, just maybe not the greatest fantasy football one.
No way Hogan, as spotty as his effectiveness is, sees 63 snaps to Gordon's 18 next time. I can't see that happening. Nor does Dorsett get 43, though he ran a nice out route before he got dinged.
It's like BassNBrew, jvdesigns2002, and Anarchy99 have been saying all along. It's a great organizational situation for Mr. Gordon, just maybe not the greatest fantasy football one.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
did you nervously and secretly press the panic button, or did you hulk smash it2 catches = panic
Sebowski
Footballguy
Soulfly3
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
I kind of agree with you, actually. There's no constant there. If we had all things constant, it'd be easier. But we don't. Every talking head last night (and I realize that media narrative is lockstep, annoying, and often wrong -- and this is citing authority to a degree, though it's not a fallacy to use expert opinion as evidence or inference) was talking about the change that Gordon brings to the Patriots' passing game when he's on the field.
It's funny, and this is just an aside: I posted in this thread last night that the lead story on KTLA's half hour sports wrap-up wasn't the Dodgers or baseball or anything California-related. It was Gordon and the Patriots. My jaw dropped. This, in addition to being a huge football thing, is a huge story now. It's not going away.
Chaka
Footballguy
I don't know but I do and Gordon outscored both in my league.
Edelman 10
Gronk 11
Gordon 12
And is it anything more than a pyrrhic victory if in other leagues it was Gordon 10, Edelman 11 and Gronk 12?
Bottom line is Gordon is already producing at their level after two weeks in the offense. Don't down play that.
Dorsett, Patterson and Hogan should all be updating their resumes.
rockaction
Footballguy
I play standard, where he outscored Edelman by 5.3 points, which is significant in the colloquial (non-math) sense of the word.
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rockaction
Footballguy
Could be .5 ppr, which I find a nice compromise between dinking and dunking and the object of the game, which isn't to throw the ball two yards and gain one, but to actually, ya know, move down the field or stop movement.
rockaction
Footballguy
Soulfly3
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
In fairness to those people, this guy, that I dig, has cost me two titles because of roster spots and shaky starts. I do it because:
- I respect freakish talent and want it on my roster
- I'm humbled by addiction issues
- I don't agree that substances should be controlled by the government, much less legal ones banned by a mandated CBA the individual has very little say in, especially the NFL's CBA
- I disagree with commandeering labor so that it is not able to move freely, and I also feel that any restrictions regarding this tenet must be made within reason, and solely for the integrity of the games and not for owner profits
- etc.
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Soulfly3
Footballguy
Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
Sorry, but that is EXACTLY what the team said. The exact words were "expect a completely different offense".
They put up 38 pts. 2 games in a row- they aren't going into "overhaul mode" because people want Gordon to score more points for their magic football team.
You may not know this about the Pats, but they adjust the offense to fit their personnel. New personnel that can do more, they adjust the offense to fit.
Do you think the offense strategy they ran with Randy Moss was the same as when they were starting Hernandez and Gronk? Or when they had Faulk or Dillon?
The offense is plug and play. I would bet you money right now that BB will use strategy to get the most out of Gordon.
