creepythinman
Footballguy
Sitting 10-0 in my primary league after this week with a Week 15 playoff bye secure. For those in the same position, it's time to start making moves to put your team in the best position to win your Week 16 and 17 matchups, where every single point matters.
Looking through a multitude of factors and metrics (SOS, NEP, APA, AFP/target, home/away splits, volatility, weather, and potential game scripts), here are a few playoff game winners for whom might worth sacrificing trade equity and immediate production.
QB
Kyler Murray faces CHI (#1 in adjusted fantasy points allowed per dropback ("AFPA/DB")) in Week 16 and PHI (#7 in AFPA/DB) in Week 17. Dream matchups, however, both games are on the road in cities with potentially terrible weather against teams who will run the ball 30+ times if allowed. Not too worried about tanking/sitting as Kyler will still be proving he's the franchise QB and Jonathan Gannon will be fighting to keep his job. High floor with his rushing. Not a great week against Atlanta and he was essentially free so he's trade obtainable.
Baker Mayfield seemed like a QB I'd hate to start in the playoffs, but upon a deeper dive found him to be underrated. In my league, he’s QB13 overall in PPG, ahead of the Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow. And Weeks 16 and 17, Baker faces two teams at home without great metrics: JAX (#25 in AFPA/DB) and NO (#16 in ADPA/DB). But he's on this list because: (1) both games are at home in the Florida sunshine; (2) has a low bust rate (finishing outside of the top 10 only 3 games out of 9 games); and (3) JAX and NO are two of the worst teams in pressure/sack rate (both bottom 6). Defenses need to blitz when they can't get to the QB with 4 and Baker is QB #6 in the NFL in passer rating vs. man defenses. Coming into Week 10, Baker's overall EPA (expected points added) under pressure was +0.9, the highest in the NFL. The second highest EPA in the league is Josh Allen at -7.1. This year, Baker has played 4 games against defenses with a bottom 10 sack rate and finished as the QB17 (317yds, 1 TD, 17 rush yds), QB8 (246yds, 3 TDs, 36 rush yds) vs. the Saints, QB10 (275yds, 2 TDs, 32 rush yds), and QB7 (265yds, 2 TDs). He might not win you the week, but it's unlikely he'll lose it for you. And if you have someone like a Sam Howell as your QB1 (playing NYJ and SF in the playoffs), a QB who won't lose it for you might be enough. In Week 17, he plays the Saints who he had his best game of the season against and whose defense has been on the downhill for weeks. Baker should be dirt cheap to trade for as his perception is lower than his reality.
Josh Allen’s past 5 weeks haven't been mind-blowing so the door may be open for trade. Faces LAC (#9 in ADPA/DB and #4 in APA) and NE (#25 in ADPA/DB). If Allen is able to repeat his performance vs. MIA in Week 16 vs. the Chargers in another shootout, it's going to be very hard to keep the Josh Allen owner out of the championship. If you have a stacked bench, it is worth packaging your RB3/WR3 to your QB1 for this upgrade.
RB
Austin Ekeler, like with any early first round pick, might be close to untouchable. But he has the best playoff APA schedule at the RB position. In Week 15, he plays BUF who allows the 6th highest fantasy point per carry ("FP/C") and is #10 in total APA. BUF does allow the 3rd lowest fantasy point per target ("FP/T") to RBs but in a hopeful shootout, Ekeler should be getting a lot of targets. In Week 16, he plays Denver who gives up the 5th most FP/C and the 8th most FP/T to RBs -- true league winning stuff. The Chargers are 4-5 but with only 3 games remaining vs. teams with a record above .500, should still be in the playoff hunt until Week 18.
Josh Jacobs should be a trade target. Use the rookie QB angle. Use the interim head coach angle. Use the too many touches angle. Use the Week 13 bye angle and upgrade at RB. Weeks 16 and 17, faces KC and IND on the road. While KC isn’t a great matchup on paper, ranking 12th best in APA to RBs, there’s some hidden data there. KC allows the 3rd most Net Expected Points per Carry (“NEP/C”), behind CAR and DEN and just ahead of the Raiders, which means the key to scoring against and beating KC is to run the ball. KC allows the 11th most carries at home. The Raiders have found their identity the last couple of weeks under Antonio Pierce and Bo Hardegree and that identity is to play defense and keep running the damn ball. Jacobs has carried the ball 26 and 27 times in the past 2 weeks under the new leadership. I would expect 25 to 30+ carries against KC on the road no matter what. Even down by 2 scores, they’re not going to feed Aidan O’Connell to the wolves. Week 17, IND ranks 28th in APA to RBs and allows the 3rd most FP/C to RBs. IND allows the most rushing attempts at home in the league, at 32.4 rush attempts per game. Based on volume alone, Jacobs is going to be a Week 17 stud. The Raiders are incredibly 5-5 and second in the division. Jacobs is still playing for his next contract and Antonio Pierce wants the full-time HC job, so not much risk of Jacobs sitting. Loving his Week 13 bye as well, an extra week of rest to prepare for his massive workload down the stretch.
Bijan Robinson* unfortunately is saddled with Arthur Smith but even with that factored in, he’s in a great spot Week 16 vs. the same IND defense at home. Even with Allgeier vulturing 10 carries, Bijan still touch the ball 20+ times. His use in the pass game greatly diminished under Heinicke who loves to just close his eyes and throw it deep, so Bijan owners should hope it’s Ridder under center during the playoffs. I’m very concerned about his Week 17 matchup on the road at Chicago, despite CHI ranking 25th in APA to RBs. CHI’s rush defense is ranked 2nd in the NFL and at home allows the 3rd fewest rush attempts per game in the league at 20.6. At a 50/50 split, Bijan is only running the ball 10 to 11 times. Where CHI has been hurt by RBs is through the air, allowing the 2nd most FP/T to RBs. However, if Heinicke starts Week 17, it’s safe to say that Bijan’s targets will be limited. *With Ridder, Bijan has two weeks of smash starts in the playoffs. Without Ridder, Bijan might be on the bench for me.
Looking through a multitude of factors and metrics (SOS, NEP, APA, AFP/target, home/away splits, volatility, weather, and potential game scripts), here are a few playoff game winners for whom might worth sacrificing trade equity and immediate production.
QB
Kyler Murray faces CHI (#1 in adjusted fantasy points allowed per dropback ("AFPA/DB")) in Week 16 and PHI (#7 in AFPA/DB) in Week 17. Dream matchups, however, both games are on the road in cities with potentially terrible weather against teams who will run the ball 30+ times if allowed. Not too worried about tanking/sitting as Kyler will still be proving he's the franchise QB and Jonathan Gannon will be fighting to keep his job. High floor with his rushing. Not a great week against Atlanta and he was essentially free so he's trade obtainable.
Baker Mayfield seemed like a QB I'd hate to start in the playoffs, but upon a deeper dive found him to be underrated. In my league, he’s QB13 overall in PPG, ahead of the Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow. And Weeks 16 and 17, Baker faces two teams at home without great metrics: JAX (#25 in AFPA/DB) and NO (#16 in ADPA/DB). But he's on this list because: (1) both games are at home in the Florida sunshine; (2) has a low bust rate (finishing outside of the top 10 only 3 games out of 9 games); and (3) JAX and NO are two of the worst teams in pressure/sack rate (both bottom 6). Defenses need to blitz when they can't get to the QB with 4 and Baker is QB #6 in the NFL in passer rating vs. man defenses. Coming into Week 10, Baker's overall EPA (expected points added) under pressure was +0.9, the highest in the NFL. The second highest EPA in the league is Josh Allen at -7.1. This year, Baker has played 4 games against defenses with a bottom 10 sack rate and finished as the QB17 (317yds, 1 TD, 17 rush yds), QB8 (246yds, 3 TDs, 36 rush yds) vs. the Saints, QB10 (275yds, 2 TDs, 32 rush yds), and QB7 (265yds, 2 TDs). He might not win you the week, but it's unlikely he'll lose it for you. And if you have someone like a Sam Howell as your QB1 (playing NYJ and SF in the playoffs), a QB who won't lose it for you might be enough. In Week 17, he plays the Saints who he had his best game of the season against and whose defense has been on the downhill for weeks. Baker should be dirt cheap to trade for as his perception is lower than his reality.
Josh Allen’s past 5 weeks haven't been mind-blowing so the door may be open for trade. Faces LAC (#9 in ADPA/DB and #4 in APA) and NE (#25 in ADPA/DB). If Allen is able to repeat his performance vs. MIA in Week 16 vs. the Chargers in another shootout, it's going to be very hard to keep the Josh Allen owner out of the championship. If you have a stacked bench, it is worth packaging your RB3/WR3 to your QB1 for this upgrade.
RB
Austin Ekeler, like with any early first round pick, might be close to untouchable. But he has the best playoff APA schedule at the RB position. In Week 15, he plays BUF who allows the 6th highest fantasy point per carry ("FP/C") and is #10 in total APA. BUF does allow the 3rd lowest fantasy point per target ("FP/T") to RBs but in a hopeful shootout, Ekeler should be getting a lot of targets. In Week 16, he plays Denver who gives up the 5th most FP/C and the 8th most FP/T to RBs -- true league winning stuff. The Chargers are 4-5 but with only 3 games remaining vs. teams with a record above .500, should still be in the playoff hunt until Week 18.
Josh Jacobs should be a trade target. Use the rookie QB angle. Use the interim head coach angle. Use the too many touches angle. Use the Week 13 bye angle and upgrade at RB. Weeks 16 and 17, faces KC and IND on the road. While KC isn’t a great matchup on paper, ranking 12th best in APA to RBs, there’s some hidden data there. KC allows the 3rd most Net Expected Points per Carry (“NEP/C”), behind CAR and DEN and just ahead of the Raiders, which means the key to scoring against and beating KC is to run the ball. KC allows the 11th most carries at home. The Raiders have found their identity the last couple of weeks under Antonio Pierce and Bo Hardegree and that identity is to play defense and keep running the damn ball. Jacobs has carried the ball 26 and 27 times in the past 2 weeks under the new leadership. I would expect 25 to 30+ carries against KC on the road no matter what. Even down by 2 scores, they’re not going to feed Aidan O’Connell to the wolves. Week 17, IND ranks 28th in APA to RBs and allows the 3rd most FP/C to RBs. IND allows the most rushing attempts at home in the league, at 32.4 rush attempts per game. Based on volume alone, Jacobs is going to be a Week 17 stud. The Raiders are incredibly 5-5 and second in the division. Jacobs is still playing for his next contract and Antonio Pierce wants the full-time HC job, so not much risk of Jacobs sitting. Loving his Week 13 bye as well, an extra week of rest to prepare for his massive workload down the stretch.
Bijan Robinson* unfortunately is saddled with Arthur Smith but even with that factored in, he’s in a great spot Week 16 vs. the same IND defense at home. Even with Allgeier vulturing 10 carries, Bijan still touch the ball 20+ times. His use in the pass game greatly diminished under Heinicke who loves to just close his eyes and throw it deep, so Bijan owners should hope it’s Ridder under center during the playoffs. I’m very concerned about his Week 17 matchup on the road at Chicago, despite CHI ranking 25th in APA to RBs. CHI’s rush defense is ranked 2nd in the NFL and at home allows the 3rd fewest rush attempts per game in the league at 20.6. At a 50/50 split, Bijan is only running the ball 10 to 11 times. Where CHI has been hurt by RBs is through the air, allowing the 2nd most FP/T to RBs. However, if Heinicke starts Week 17, it’s safe to say that Bijan’s targets will be limited. *With Ridder, Bijan has two weeks of smash starts in the playoffs. Without Ridder, Bijan might be on the bench for me.