Forgive me if this has been discussed ad nauseum already, but I couldn't find it on a quick search.
I know there's debate about Lloyd's impact, with some expecting a poor man's Randy Moss of 2007 (so, essentially, Moss of 2008 or 2009) while others think he'll play his role well but not be a main target. Regardless, there's no denying the fact that he's the most accomplished and talented WR that the Patriots have had alongside Welker since Moss left/stopped playing hard.
Let's assume that Tom Brady throws 40 td's this season. He had 39 last year and 36 the year before. 40 certainly isn't a given, but we'll get into that in a minute. For now, let's say he hits 40. Last year, only 5 Patriots caught TD passes and none of them were RB's. That's unlikely to happen again (in 2010, 8 players caught TD's and in 2009, 7 players caught TD's), given that Addai and Woodhead are good receivers out of the backfield and there's so much depth. You have guys like Branch (who had 5 last year), Gaffney, Stallworth, Edelman, and Fells. But let's be conservative and say that only 6 TD's go to that group of RB's and the guys I just mentioned. I think it could be much closer to 8-10, but we'll say 6. That leaves 34 TD's. How do you see the distribution?
Let's say something like this:
Gronkowski: 12
Hernandez: 8
Welker: 7
Lloyd: 7
If that's roughly correct, based on the ADP of these guys, their owners are going to be somewhat disappointed, unless their receptions/yards are truly off the charts.
It obviously gets more problematic if Brady throws only (!) 35 td's. Again, if 6 go to the rb's/Branch/Gaffney/Stallworth et al, you have 29, which could look like this:
Gronkowski: 10
Hernandez: 7
Welker: 6
Lloyd: 6
There are lots of different scenarios here and a lot will also depend on who stays healthy, but there's no question that the arrival of Lloyd complicates things a bit. So, my question: who do you think will be impacted the most when it comes to their TD's? Or will Brady throw more than 40 TD's and it won't matter? I'm not expecting anyone's numbers to crater, but I think there's a good chance that at least two of these guys underperform their ADP's -- possibly by quite a bit. And I also think there's a decent chance that Brady throws 30-34 TD's, as well.
Thoughts?
I know there's debate about Lloyd's impact, with some expecting a poor man's Randy Moss of 2007 (so, essentially, Moss of 2008 or 2009) while others think he'll play his role well but not be a main target. Regardless, there's no denying the fact that he's the most accomplished and talented WR that the Patriots have had alongside Welker since Moss left/stopped playing hard.
Let's assume that Tom Brady throws 40 td's this season. He had 39 last year and 36 the year before. 40 certainly isn't a given, but we'll get into that in a minute. For now, let's say he hits 40. Last year, only 5 Patriots caught TD passes and none of them were RB's. That's unlikely to happen again (in 2010, 8 players caught TD's and in 2009, 7 players caught TD's), given that Addai and Woodhead are good receivers out of the backfield and there's so much depth. You have guys like Branch (who had 5 last year), Gaffney, Stallworth, Edelman, and Fells. But let's be conservative and say that only 6 TD's go to that group of RB's and the guys I just mentioned. I think it could be much closer to 8-10, but we'll say 6. That leaves 34 TD's. How do you see the distribution?
Let's say something like this:
Gronkowski: 12
Hernandez: 8
Welker: 7
Lloyd: 7
If that's roughly correct, based on the ADP of these guys, their owners are going to be somewhat disappointed, unless their receptions/yards are truly off the charts.
It obviously gets more problematic if Brady throws only (!) 35 td's. Again, if 6 go to the rb's/Branch/Gaffney/Stallworth et al, you have 29, which could look like this:
Gronkowski: 10
Hernandez: 7
Welker: 6
Lloyd: 6
There are lots of different scenarios here and a lot will also depend on who stays healthy, but there's no question that the arrival of Lloyd complicates things a bit. So, my question: who do you think will be impacted the most when it comes to their TD's? Or will Brady throw more than 40 TD's and it won't matter? I'm not expecting anyone's numbers to crater, but I think there's a good chance that at least two of these guys underperform their ADP's -- possibly by quite a bit. And I also think there's a decent chance that Brady throws 30-34 TD's, as well.
Thoughts?
