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Aaron Hernandez will win your 2013 Fantasy League (1 Viewer)

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doowain

doowain

Footballguy
McDaniels was already phasing out Welker last year before the injuries to Gronk and Hernandez. I can see him taking a 1/4 to 1/3 of Welker's targets. Add in the departure of Lloyd and we are going to see an astronomical number of targets for a TE.

Hernandez averaged 8.4 targets a game last year in 10 games. That projects to 134 for 16 games. A third of Welker's targets would be 58. Let's be conservative and say 40. That would put him at 174 targets.

He's not a TE. He's a WR. And he's my favorite to finish 2013 as TE1.

He will outperform Gronk and Graham and can be had 3-4 rounds later.

:boxing:

 
He won't be 3-4 rounds later next next. Hernandez will be gone by late 2nd early 3rd, IMO.

 
'doowain said:
McDaniels was already phasing out Welker last year before the injuries to Gronk and Hernandez. I can see him taking a 1/4 to 1/3 of Welker's targets. Add in the departure of Lloyd and we are going to see an astronomical number of targets for a TE.Hernandez averaged 8.4 targets a game last year in 10 games. That projects to 134 for 16 games. A third of Welker's targets would be 58. Let's be conservative and say 40. That would put him at 174 targets.He's not a TE. He's a WR. And he's my favorite to finish 2013 as TE1.He will outperform Gronk and Graham and can be had 3-4 rounds later. :boxing:
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Yeah, that's what i said last year
 
'12punch said:
'doowain said:
McDaniels was already phasing out Welker last year before the injuries to Gronk and Hernandez. I can see him taking a 1/4 to 1/3 of Welker's targets. Add in the departure of Lloyd and we are going to see an astronomical number of targets for a TE.Hernandez averaged 8.4 targets a game last year in 10 games. That projects to 134 for 16 games. A third of Welker's targets would be 58. Let's be conservative and say 40. That would put him at 174 targets.He's not a TE. He's a WR. And he's my favorite to finish 2013 as TE1.He will outperform Gronk and Graham and can be had 3-4 rounds later. :boxing:
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Yeah, that's what i said last year
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You said what exactly?
 
If he can stay healthy, he'll see a ton of balls, I agree. But to overtake Gronk he's gonna need to take a big chunk of Gronk's redzone looks, which I have a hard time seeing. Gronk has been as good in that part of the field as any player ever, at any position, in his career thus far.

 
No one player can win your league IMO, especially one already looked at as top 3 at the position. If someone's going to win a league it'll probably be a later round pick that busts out to have a top 3 season ala Brandon Lloyd from a few years ago - those types can help win a league IMO if you drafted strong through the first few rounds. But having a guy like Hernandez simply perform as expected (or a little better) probably isn't enough to do it alone.

 
'Coeur de Lion said:
If he can stay healthy, he'll see a ton of balls, I agree. But to overtake Gronk he's gonna need to take a big chunk of Gronk's redzone looks, which I have a hard time seeing. Gronk has been as good in that part of the field as any player ever, at any position, in his career thus far.
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Agree with this. I love Hernandez and own him in a lot of leagues while not owning Gronk anywhere, but I think Gronk is going to remain the top fantasy guy in NE because he will be close to Hernandez in catches but score a half dozen more TDs.
 
'Coeur de Lion said:
If he can stay healthy, he'll see a ton of balls, I agree. But to overtake Gronk he's gonna need to take a big chunk of Gronk's redzone looks, which I have a hard time seeing. Gronk has been as good in that part of the field as any player ever, at any position, in his career thus far.
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Actually last year:Gronk11 games17 red zone targetsHernandez10 games14 red zone targetsNow, I don't know the split based upon games they played together, but it's definitely not as big of a difference as you may perceive it to be.
 
I don't know if he will get the type of unadulterated and creepy love from Brady like Graham and Gronk get, but, at the least, this should be a year where those three TEs create a tier for themslef that is similar to the DE tier of Watt, JPP, and Allen.

The advantages you will have in a ppr with those three will be like having an extra flex in your lineup.

 
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'finito said:
No one player can win your league IMO, especially one already looked at as top 3 at the position. If someone's going to win a league it'll probably be a later round pick that busts out to have a top 3 season ala Brandon Lloyd from a few years ago - those types can help win a league IMO if you drafted strong through the first few rounds. But having a guy like Hernandez simply perform as expected (or a little better) probably isn't enough to do it alone.
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Single handedly, no. That's impossible.I do however expect him to score like a WR at the TE position. In a PPR league, he's going to give you a huge advantage.You don't think slotting Welker in as a TE would've given you a leg up on a championship?
 
'Coeur de Lion said:
If he can stay healthy, he'll see a ton of balls, I agree. But to overtake Gronk he's gonna need to take a big chunk of Gronk's redzone looks, which I have a hard time seeing. Gronk has been as good in that part of the field as any player ever, at any position, in his career thus far.
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that's not really true.At least, it hasn't been to this point
 
'doowain said:
'Coeur de Lion said:
If he can stay healthy, he'll see a ton of balls, I agree. But to overtake Gronk he's gonna need to take a big chunk of Gronk's redzone looks, which I have a hard time seeing. Gronk has been as good in that part of the field as any player ever, at any position, in his career thus far.
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Actually last year:Gronk11 games17 red zone targetsHernandez10 games14 red zone targetsNow, I don't know the split based upon games they played together, but it's definitely not as big of a difference as you may perceive it to be.
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i think week 1 was about the only game they were both in healthy
 
I have him in a keeper "TD heavy" league that treats TEs as WRs. At what tier of wideouts would you say he was equal to?

 
'doowain said:
McDaniels was already phasing out Welker last year before the injuries to Gronk and Hernandez. I can see him taking a 1/4 to 1/3 of Welker's targets. Add in the departure of Lloyd and we are going to see an astronomical number of targets for a TE.Hernandez averaged 8.4 targets a game last year in 10 games. That projects to 134 for 16 games. A third of Welker's targets would be 58. Let's be conservative and say 40. That would put him at 174 targets.He's not a TE. He's a WR. And he's my favorite to finish 2013 as TE1.He will outperform Gronk and Graham and can be had 3-4 rounds later. :boxing:
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Good call (I recall that you even made this call for dynasty some time ago). Love Aaron Hernandez as well and he has been my #1B off season dynasty target behind only David Wilson at #1A. For redraft, I'd have a hard time choosing between the two. In a FFPC best-ball league with 1.5 PPR for TE, I took Gronk at 1.10 and Hernandez 2.03 (which was fairly dumb in concept, but just shows how much I like Hernandez in 2013 - and this was before the Welker trade).
 
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The Patriots offense, as constructed, needed a Welker replacement. It won't be Hernandez. Hernandez already plays in the slot at a very high rate, and will continue to, but he and Welker/Dola are different mismatches for defenses. He could get more targets, but Amendola was brought in to be a Welker replacement and will be used as such.

 
I'm as big a Hernandez skeptic as there is -- I think he's mostly a product of his system. But I sure do wish I owned him right about now and agree he could have a monster year.

 
'Concept Coop said:
The Patriots offense, as constructed, needed a Welker replacement. It won't be Hernandez. Hernandez already plays in the slot at a very high rate, and will continue to, but he and Welker/Dola are different mismatches for defenses. He could get more targets, but Amendola was brought in to be a Welker replacement and will be used as such.
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There may be something to that, but it's not as simple as you think. How do you speak to Welker playing on about 30% less snaps early on in the season before the injuries to both TEs?And, as for "replacing" Welker....I thought it went without saying that I meant replacement for his production.
 
'doowain said:
There may be something to that, but it's not as simple as you think. How do you speak to Welker playing on about 30% less snaps early on in the season before the injuries to both TEs?And, as for "replacing" Welker....I thought it went without saying that I meant replacement for his production.
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I don't know the whole story, but there was obviously something going on. I am aware that you are talking about his production, but I'm simply not so sure. They paid Amendola a good deal of money. I truly think think that the patriots feel Amendola can produce as Welker did, right or wrong. I don't expect much to change, personally.
 
'wdcrob said:
I'm as big a Hernandez skeptic as there is -- I think he's mostly a product of his system. But I sure do wish I owned him right about now and agree he could have a monster year.
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You should watch him play. He's an athletic freak of nature. He'd be the starter on any other team except the Saints.
 
I don't think we have a full perspective on what the Pats will be doing right now. Too many unanswered questions. Will Lloyd and Edleman be back (Woodhead, too, for that matter)? Will they draft a receiver? Sign another FA receiver? Go more run heavy? Do they keep Volmer at RT? Will the line be shaky? How will they use Ballard? IMO, it's too soon to tell what to expect.

 
'Bamac said:
I figured you meant that, though many teams could also prefer Hernandez over Graham if forced to choose.
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I am pretty sure I read that he breaks more tackles than any non-RB(QB/WR/TE), so there is certainly an argument for him. I just think Graham's size is too much to overlook. I really do like Hernadnez, but I'd take Graham in fantasy and for my favorite NFL team.
 
'Concept Coop said:
'doowain said:
There may be something to that, but it's not as simple as you think. How do you speak to Welker playing on about 30% less snaps early on in the season before the injuries to both TEs?And, as for "replacing" Welker....I thought it went without saying that I meant replacement for his production.
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I don't know the whole story, but there was obviously something going on. I am aware that you are talking about his production, but I'm simply not so sure. They paid Amendola a good deal of money. I truly think think that the patriots feel Amendola can produce as Welker did, right or wrong. I don't expect much to change, personally.
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I think it is also worth noting that Amendola is perfectly capable of playing outside as well, so he may be on the field more than Welker was at the start of last year.
 
Oooooooooooooooooover-Raaaaaaaaaaaaaated, clapclapclapclapclapclap.

He's not going to replace Welker. He doesn't like getting hit, gets alligator arms in the middle. Welker as superhuman in this regard.

 
'Bamac said:
'Concept Coop said:
'Bamac said:
Over Graham or with him?
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With. They rarely use Graham as a TE as it is, no reason they couldn't use them both, in my opinion.
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I figured you meant that, though many teams could also prefer Hernandez over Graham if forced to choose.
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Really? I'll take Graham. A little "off" last season but I'll take the physical mismatch and let him continue to develop.
 
Regarding the title... I don't know how that's going to work. Aaron Hernandez doesn't have a team in any leagues I play in.

 
'jtd13 said:
Regarding the title... I don't know how that's going to work. Aaron Hernandez doesn't have a team in any leagues I play in.
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I wanted to go there too, but I thought it would look silly this late in the thread. Turns out I was right. :hophead:
 
I think some people are overestimating the effect here on hernandez. The biggest factor in his success is health.

Also, while welker is gone, amendola is good enough for 100 plus targets.

I am not saying welker leaving is bad, but I think it will only be a minimal boost to others. He was the clear #3 dynasty TE a few days ago, and remains the clear #3 TE for the forseable future

 
'doowain said:
McDaniels was already phasing out Welker last year before the injuries to Gronk and Hernandez. I can see him taking a 1/4 to 1/3 of Welker's targets. Add in the departure of Lloyd and we are going to see an astronomical number of targets for a TE.

Hernandez averaged 8.4 targets a game last year in 10 games. That projects to 134 for 16 games. A third of Welker's targets would be 58. Let's be conservative and say 40. That would put him at 174 targets.

He's not a TE. He's a WR. And he's my favorite to finish 2013 as TE1.

He will outperform Gronk and Graham and can be had 3-4 rounds later.

:boxing:
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um.....no..no , Hernandez will not win you a fantasy title this year..not sure where all this love for Hernandez is coming from , but to me, he's an also-ran TE who gets publicity because he plays alongside Tom Brady..in each of his 3 NFL seasons..

2010-2012:

TD's 6-7-5..

yards per rec, 12.5, 11.5, 9.5 :eek:

rec/gm 3.2, 5.6, 5.1 ( his avg of 8.4 targets yeilded just 5.1 recs/gm.and a paltry 48.3 ypg..)yawn..

yards/gm - 40,65,48.3

so you're getting a 5/48.3 TE that scores slightly more TD's than Jason Witten... :rolleyes:

no thanks..

total games played = 38 out of 48..

the one thing we CAN definitely say about Hernandez, is that he is as fragile as they come, and that he's made of glass..you can take it to the bank that he WILL get hurt at some point in 2013..

so now the Pats have 'potato chip' Amendola and 'The Chandelier', aka Hernandez, catching passes for them..my money is on some guy we've not named yet as being the leading receiver for the Pats..maybe even a RB..

but it sure as heck won't be Hernandez and Amendola..

as far as Welker, where'd you get this notion that he was somehow being phased out late last year? the numbers don't play that out.

first 8 games: 60 recs/2td

last 8 games: 58 recs.4 tds.

two playoff games: 16/248/2 ( 8-117,8-131)

so let's put to bed this notion that he was being phased out late last season, it's simply NOT true..he was every bit important inthe final 8 weeks as he was the first 8,probably more..

 
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'Tanner9919 said:
'doowain said:
McDaniels was already phasing out Welker last year before the injuries to Gronk and Hernandez. I can see him taking a 1/4 to 1/3 of Welker's targets. Add in the departure of Lloyd and we are going to see an astronomical number of targets for a TE.

Hernandez averaged 8.4 targets a game last year in 10 games. That projects to 134 for 16 games. A third of Welker's targets would be 58. Let's be conservative and say 40. That would put him at 174 targets.

He's not a TE. He's a WR. And he's my favorite to finish 2013 as TE1.

He will outperform Gronk and Graham and can be had 3-4 rounds later.

:boxing:
Click to expand...
um.....no..no , Hernandez will not win you a fantasy title this year..not sure where all this love for Hernandez is coming from , but to me, he's an also-ran TE who gets publicity because he plays alongside Tom Brady..in each of his 3 NFL seasons..

2010-2012:

TD's 6-7-5..

yards per rec, 12.5, 11.5, 9.5 :eek:

rec/gm 3.2, 5.6, 5.1 ( his avg of 8.4 targets yeilded just 5.1 recs/gm.and a paltry 48.3 ypg..)yawn..

yards/gm - 40,65,48.3

so you're getting a 5/48.3 TE that scores slightly more TD's than Jason Witten... :rolleyes:

no thanks..

total games played = 38 out of 48..

the one thing we CAN definitely say about Hernandez, is that he is as fragile as they come, and that he's made of glass..you can take it to the bank that he WILL get hurt at some point in 2013..

so now the Pats have 'potato chip' Amendola and 'The Chandelier', aka Hernandez, catching passes for them..my money is on some guy we've not named yet as being the leading receiver for the Pats..maybe even a RB..

but it sure as heck won't be Hernandez and Amendola..

as far as Welker, where'd you get this notion that he was somehow being phased out late last year? the numbers don't play that out.

first 8 games: 60 recs/2td

last 8 games: 58 recs.4 tds.

two playoff games: 16/248/2 ( 8-117,8-131)

so let's put to bed this notion that he was being phased out late last season, it's simply NOT true..he was every bit important inthe final 8 weeks as he was the first 8,probably more..
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Oh, I didn't realize your league uses previous season's points for 2013. Interesting format. I'm guessing Antonio Gates will be the first TE off the board there?And Welker was being phased out EARLY in the season, prior to the injuries to Gronk/Hernandez. It's like you don't even read before you post.

 
'Tanner9919 said:
'doowain said:
McDaniels was already phasing out Welker last year before the injuries to Gronk and Hernandez. I can see him taking a 1/4 to 1/3 of Welker's targets. Add in the departure of Lloyd and we are going to see an astronomical number of targets for a TE.

Hernandez averaged 8.4 targets a game last year in 10 games. That projects to 134 for 16 games. A third of Welker's targets would be 58. Let's be conservative and say 40. That would put him at 174 targets.

He's not a TE. He's a WR. And he's my favorite to finish 2013 as TE1.

He will outperform Gronk and Graham and can be had 3-4 rounds later.

:boxing:
Click to expand...
um.....no..no , Hernandez will not win you a fantasy title this year..not sure where all this love for Hernandez is coming from , but to me, he's an also-ran TE who gets publicity because he plays alongside Tom Brady..in each of his 3 NFL seasons..

2010-2012:

TD's 6-7-5..

yards per rec, 12.5, 11.5, 9.5 :eek:

rec/gm 3.2, 5.6, 5.1 ( his avg of 8.4 targets yeilded just 5.1 recs/gm.and a paltry 48.3 ypg..)yawn..

yards/gm - 40,65,48.3

so you're getting a 5/48.3 TE that scores slightly more TD's than Jason Witten... :rolleyes:

no thanks..

total games played = 38 out of 48..

the one thing we CAN definitely say about Hernandez, is that he is as fragile as they come, and that he's made of glass..you can take it to the bank that he WILL get hurt at some point in 2013..

so now the Pats have 'potato chip' Amendola and 'The Chandelier', aka Hernandez, catching passes for them..my money is on some guy we've not named yet as being the leading receiver for the Pats..maybe even a RB..

but it sure as heck won't be Hernandez and Amendola..

as far as Welker, where'd you get this notion that he was somehow being phased out late last year? the numbers don't play that out.

first 8 games: 60 recs/2td

last 8 games: 58 recs.4 tds.

two playoff games: 16/248/2 ( 8-117,8-131)

so let's put to bed this notion that he was being phased out late last season, it's simply NOT true..he was every bit important inthe final 8 weeks as he was the first 8,probably more..
Click to expand...
Not sure how you can be too down on a guy when you compare him and say he's just barely better than Jason Witten. Witten is basically a rock-solid, perennial top 5 TE every single year. Who wouldn't want that?On your averages you chose to use, you realize that his floor average is still 80+ catches, 1000+ yards? Not too shabby either.

And then if you just simply watch the games, you see immediately that he is heavily involved in the Patriots passing game, which is one of the most prolific in the league AND he is used in the running game. It may not be much, but you should include the rushing and multiple alignments he factors in. Those are worth points too. All in all, he easily passes the eyeball test and the stats test. He has had some missed games. Other players have too. Andre Johnson and Calvin Johnson both missed some games those first few years. Its not a death sentence. But more importantly, if you look at his average points per game, you see that, based on when he is playing, he is always a top 5 TE in fantasy.

Welker WAS being used less at the beginning of the year. There is no dening that. His use didn't pick back up until they started having injuries. Had Gronk, Hernandez, and the occassional WR not missed time all throughout the season, Welker would not have had another top season last year.

I think the OP has a solid point.

 
'doowain said:
McDaniels was already phasing out Welker last year before the injuries to Gronk and Hernandez. I can see him taking a 1/4 to 1/3 of Welker's targets. Add in the departure of Lloyd and we are going to see an astronomical number of targets for a TE.

Hernandez averaged 8.4 targets a game last year in 10 games. That projects to 134 for 16 games. A third of Welker's targets would be 58. Let's be conservative and say 40. That would put him at 174 targets.

He's not a TE. He's a WR. And he's my favorite to finish 2013 as TE1.

He will outperform Gronk and Graham and can be had 3-4 rounds later.

:boxing:
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No argument with Hernandez. However, I don't think Welker was being phased out. Game Logs IIRC I thought there was some question as to whether Welker suffered a concussion in one of the pre season games which caused the lower than usual targets in the first game.
 
'Shutout said:
Welker WAS being used less at the beginning of the year. There is no dening that. His use didn't pick back up until they started having injuries. Had Gronk, Hernandez, and the occassional WR not missed time all throughout the season, Welker would not have had another top season last year.
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I don't think we know this. There was something going on behind the scenes, but I don't think Welker was being "phased out". I think they signing of Dola supports that; that role will be constant on this offense.
 
'ffjunk said:
'doowain said:
McDaniels was already phasing out Welker last year before the injuries to Gronk and Hernandez. I can see him taking a 1/4 to 1/3 of Welker's targets. Add in the departure of Lloyd and we are going to see an astronomical number of targets for a TE.

Hernandez averaged 8.4 targets a game last year in 10 games. That projects to 134 for 16 games. A third of Welker's targets would be 58. Let's be conservative and say 40. That would put him at 174 targets.

He's not a TE. He's a WR. And he's my favorite to finish 2013 as TE1.

He will outperform Gronk and Graham and can be had 3-4 rounds later.

:boxing:
Click to expand...
No argument with Hernandez. However, I don't think Welker was being phased out. Game Logs IIRC I thought there was some question as to whether Welker suffered a concussion in one of the pre season games which caused the lower than usual targets in the first game.
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No, Welker was essentially beneched for Edelman in the first game. Why would a concussion keep you from starting but allow you to play?He got benched in week 1, then Mr "Will Win your 2013 Fantasy League" got hurt in Week 2, and Welker was thrust back into a primary role.

 
'Concept Coop said:
'Shutout said:
Welker WAS being used less at the beginning of the year. There is no dening that. His use didn't pick back up until they started having injuries. Had Gronk, Hernandez, and the occassional WR not missed time all throughout the season, Welker would not have had another top season last year.
Click to expand...
I don't think we know this. There was something going on behind the scenes, but I don't think Welker was being "phased out". I think they signing of Dola supports that; that role will be constant on this offense.
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A whole lotta dancing around the issue and word play going on here.
 
'doowain said:
A whole lotta dancing around the issue and word play going on here.
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Not sure how you got that out of what I said. Welker has years worth of sample size; it's silly to use a 3 game span to mean he was being "phased out", especially when they paid solid money to replace his role in the offense. What am I dancing around?
 
'Concept Coop said:
'doowain said:
A whole lotta dancing around the issue and word play going on here.
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Not sure how you got that out of what I said. Welker has years worth of sample size; it's silly to use a 3 game span to mean he was being "phased out", especially when they paid solid money to replace his role in the offense. What am I dancing around?
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I can't remember the exact numbers, but Welker was playing something like 50% of the snaps early on in the season. How is that not "being phased out"?
 
'doowain said:
I can't remember the exact numbers, but Welker was playing something like 50% of the snaps early on in the season. How is that not "being phased out"?
Click to expand...
As I said, there was something going on behind the scenes. I don't know what that is. But I know Welker led the team in targets and played very close to 100% of the teams snaps after the first 2 games. He was benched for Edelman - that doesn't make sense to me. I think it is the FO sending a message, but I honestly don't know. But I don't think it was the Patriots suggesting that they are better without Welker, or that his role is going to be phased out of the offense.
 
'Concept Coop said:
'doowain said:
I can't remember the exact numbers, but Welker was playing something like 50% of the snaps early on in the season. How is that not "being phased out"?
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As I said, there was something going on behind the scenes. I don't know what that is. But I know Welker led the team in targets and played very close to 100% of the teams snaps after the first 2 games. He was benched for Edelman - that doesn't make sense to me. I think it is the FO sending a message, but I honestly don't know. But I don't think it was the Patriots suggesting that they are better without Welker, or that his role is going to be phased out of the offense.
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Seems to me that's exactly what's been said.
 
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