Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I'm just trying out some new thread ideas. I like to discuss the entire offense when I am thinking of skill position players I want to draft in July/Aug.
We haven't made it past the NFL Draft but we can see a lot of the pieces in place now for the Falcons, time to start looking at the tea leaves.
As always, the Shark Pool participation is what makes or breaks these threads so please let me know what you think.
Wide Receiver
WR1-Drake London 72/866-’22 and 69/905-’23 Total of only 6 TDs his first 2 seasons.
8th overall pick in 2022, it has not been an easy transition for London, much of it seems to revolve around inconsistent QB play to many onlookers. He’s had 117 and 110 targets and he’s missed a game or two with some milder injuries, thankfully he hasn’t had a major one yet. Drake enters Year 3, many times those are breakout seasons and you have to assume the upgrade at QB from what they’ve had to the arrival of Kirk Cousins, this is going to feel like a different team for Drake and you hope the results are an increase in targets, catches, yards and TDs, the needle or arrow has to be pointing up.
MoProj - Believe it or not, London is right on the edge of Top 25 for targets in the NFL, seriously. If those targets were to increase from 110 to say 130+, push him into the Top 10-15 for targets in the NFL, now you’re looking at his numbers rising easily, 85-1,100-7TDs would put him close to being a WR1 in FF. It’s possible the Falcons draft a WR in a few weeks but London had the #8 pick overall invested, seems like Atlanta has other pressing needs if they want to try and make the Playoffs in the wide open NFC South.
WR2-Darnell Mooney 80/1,055 in ‘21 for the Chicago Bears, that was his 2nd season. ‘22 and ‘23 were up and down, battled a lot of injuries, he’s NEVER started 17 games so keep that in mind. 5-11/170, MoP didn’t know he was that thin, he is never going to be a frontline WR1 but with Cousins and taking on a supporting WR role, Mooney could see an uptick since there isn’t a whole lot of other great WRs to compete with right now. Is Mooney even worth drafting? I’m asking questions in April, not making full projections for all skill players. His 2nd season with the Bears where he caught 80 balls would have you believe with proper QB play that Mooney can be a decent 2nd WR in this offense.
MoProj - 55/750/4 would be a step in the right direction for him. Mooney will be the 3rd or even 4th option in this offense when you factor in Pitts and Bijan which we will be doing.
WR3/4/5- Rondale Moore and Ray Ray McCloud are the next level behind London and Mooney, I would not spend a lot of time looking at them. Rondale Moore has been a disappointment since he arrived and he also is pretty small for a WR, vertically challenged we might say. There isn’t a lot to get excited about here AND that should point to a guy like Mooney not even having to look over his shoulder for playing time in this offense.
TE-Kyle Pitts, Rookie year he managed over 1,000 yds receiving but mostly it’s been a disappointment for the #4 overall pick. Part of the Kirk Cousins signing is all the Top 5-10 picks the Falcons have invested on their frontline skill positions. ‘22 was injury plagued and last season he only had 90 targets and lost playing time to J.Smith who recently joined the Miami Dolphins. I believe the coaches had a lot to do with the inability to utilize their best skill guys.
Cousins isn’t known for exploiting the Tight End but I expect Pitts to be used almost like a WR2 in this offense. If the Falcons need in line blocking from their TE, it will have to come from other places than Pitts who doesn’t excel in run blocking but that’s not why he was drafted. We’re going to discuss their OL which is actually pretty good and not even a position they are searching for in the Draft, bottom line is they need Pitts to be targeted frequently and catch a lot of balls, I happen to think this will happen. Pitts enters Year 4 and they have to make some decisions on him soon.
MoProj - 60/900/6 would be my early projections based on about 100 targets, this number could fluctuate and also has the ability to possibly be too high but if this offense does what I think it can do, his numbers will rise quickly and I could easily see him surpass his rookie numbers IF the Falcons make his the 2nd highest targeted player in this Offense which they probably should.
RB1- Bijan Robinson is another skill payer that was drafted 8th overall in '23, Atlanta was very slow in exploiting him as a Rookie. 214 carries for just 976 yards rushing, but when you take his combined scrimmage yards you get a different POV here. Try almost 1,500 yds rush/rec and 8 TDs, now factor in they didn’t let him touch the football enough and you start salivating quickly here. 58/487 thru the air, they don’t need a 2nd WR, they need Drake-Pitts-Bijan to just continue to have the ball fed to them by the QB, it’s not complicated where they have huge talent waiting to unleash. They also have a 2nd RB in Allgheier that has rushed for over 1,000 yds his rookie season and has over 2,050 yds rush/rec his first 2 seasons in the NFL. I don’t see him continuing to get as many balls as he has BUT he’s there and can certainly give Bijan a huge breather every 3rd drive we’ll say.
MoProj - 250-1,250-8 + 50/450/4 and that’s going to give us 1,700 rush/rec and 12 TDs. I think he can go much higher if the Offense is flourishing. Bijan can elevate to a Marshall Faulk like role if Atlanta does this right.
Offensive Line-Drew Dalman at Center and Chris Lindstrom at RG make a very strong force inside along the IOL for the Falcons. Lindstrom is the #1 rated RG overall in the NFL in ‘23, Dalman ranked 3rd overall at Center, he’s a stronger run blocker than pass blocking, still he’s one of the best that is going to hike the ball to his QB, good news for Cousins. Bergeron at Left Guard rated 38th overall out of 79 ranked RG/LG, he's middle of the road but that's gonna happen. You typically never have 4-5 guys all rated in the Top 5-10 on the OL, just doesn't happen but if you have 2-3 strong OL, raises the level of the more average players along the OL.
Without boring some of you that could care less about the OL, but you should take note of both LT/RT for the QBs you draft, they help set up the outside of the pocket and allow the QB the extra time they need to get the ball down the field so it’s not so much dink n dunk. Mathews at Left Tackle is solid but not quite what he once was. He ranked 30th out of 81 last year on PFF, McGary the Right Tackle was 20th overall out of 81. Could Atlanta benefit from one of the premier Tackles in the Draft that maybe falls in their lap? I would argue YES they can improve but when you factor in their other needs on defense, they won’t likely be bringing in new faces along the OL. This unit is likely a Top 10 rated line as they enter the 2024 season. And that’s going to bring me to the Quarterback.
QB- Kirk Cousins is coming off an achilles tear, I believe Dan Marino tore his in the early 90s, was never quite the same after that. Cousins doesn’t have near the size of a Marino and I do have some doubts BUT modern medicine has changed the way we view a lot of injuries, I just think Cousins could have some challenges his 1st season back. I’m not as excited about drafting him vs the other skill positions but you need Cousins to make all of this work smoothly. I probably would shy away from making any hard number projection on Kirk, but all that said he has a shot at being a Top 10 QB this year even going from a Justin Jefferson to a Drake London, there is a lot of good things for Kirk in this offense and he might have the best RB of his career lined up behind him to take a lot of pressure off his decisions at QB.
Overall Outlook: I would be a buyer in this Offense in most redraft leagues.
We haven't made it past the NFL Draft but we can see a lot of the pieces in place now for the Falcons, time to start looking at the tea leaves.
As always, the Shark Pool participation is what makes or breaks these threads so please let me know what you think.
Wide Receiver
WR1-Drake London 72/866-’22 and 69/905-’23 Total of only 6 TDs his first 2 seasons.
8th overall pick in 2022, it has not been an easy transition for London, much of it seems to revolve around inconsistent QB play to many onlookers. He’s had 117 and 110 targets and he’s missed a game or two with some milder injuries, thankfully he hasn’t had a major one yet. Drake enters Year 3, many times those are breakout seasons and you have to assume the upgrade at QB from what they’ve had to the arrival of Kirk Cousins, this is going to feel like a different team for Drake and you hope the results are an increase in targets, catches, yards and TDs, the needle or arrow has to be pointing up.
MoProj - Believe it or not, London is right on the edge of Top 25 for targets in the NFL, seriously. If those targets were to increase from 110 to say 130+, push him into the Top 10-15 for targets in the NFL, now you’re looking at his numbers rising easily, 85-1,100-7TDs would put him close to being a WR1 in FF. It’s possible the Falcons draft a WR in a few weeks but London had the #8 pick overall invested, seems like Atlanta has other pressing needs if they want to try and make the Playoffs in the wide open NFC South.
WR2-Darnell Mooney 80/1,055 in ‘21 for the Chicago Bears, that was his 2nd season. ‘22 and ‘23 were up and down, battled a lot of injuries, he’s NEVER started 17 games so keep that in mind. 5-11/170, MoP didn’t know he was that thin, he is never going to be a frontline WR1 but with Cousins and taking on a supporting WR role, Mooney could see an uptick since there isn’t a whole lot of other great WRs to compete with right now. Is Mooney even worth drafting? I’m asking questions in April, not making full projections for all skill players. His 2nd season with the Bears where he caught 80 balls would have you believe with proper QB play that Mooney can be a decent 2nd WR in this offense.
MoProj - 55/750/4 would be a step in the right direction for him. Mooney will be the 3rd or even 4th option in this offense when you factor in Pitts and Bijan which we will be doing.
WR3/4/5- Rondale Moore and Ray Ray McCloud are the next level behind London and Mooney, I would not spend a lot of time looking at them. Rondale Moore has been a disappointment since he arrived and he also is pretty small for a WR, vertically challenged we might say. There isn’t a lot to get excited about here AND that should point to a guy like Mooney not even having to look over his shoulder for playing time in this offense.
TE-Kyle Pitts, Rookie year he managed over 1,000 yds receiving but mostly it’s been a disappointment for the #4 overall pick. Part of the Kirk Cousins signing is all the Top 5-10 picks the Falcons have invested on their frontline skill positions. ‘22 was injury plagued and last season he only had 90 targets and lost playing time to J.Smith who recently joined the Miami Dolphins. I believe the coaches had a lot to do with the inability to utilize their best skill guys.
Cousins isn’t known for exploiting the Tight End but I expect Pitts to be used almost like a WR2 in this offense. If the Falcons need in line blocking from their TE, it will have to come from other places than Pitts who doesn’t excel in run blocking but that’s not why he was drafted. We’re going to discuss their OL which is actually pretty good and not even a position they are searching for in the Draft, bottom line is they need Pitts to be targeted frequently and catch a lot of balls, I happen to think this will happen. Pitts enters Year 4 and they have to make some decisions on him soon.
MoProj - 60/900/6 would be my early projections based on about 100 targets, this number could fluctuate and also has the ability to possibly be too high but if this offense does what I think it can do, his numbers will rise quickly and I could easily see him surpass his rookie numbers IF the Falcons make his the 2nd highest targeted player in this Offense which they probably should.
RB1- Bijan Robinson is another skill payer that was drafted 8th overall in '23, Atlanta was very slow in exploiting him as a Rookie. 214 carries for just 976 yards rushing, but when you take his combined scrimmage yards you get a different POV here. Try almost 1,500 yds rush/rec and 8 TDs, now factor in they didn’t let him touch the football enough and you start salivating quickly here. 58/487 thru the air, they don’t need a 2nd WR, they need Drake-Pitts-Bijan to just continue to have the ball fed to them by the QB, it’s not complicated where they have huge talent waiting to unleash. They also have a 2nd RB in Allgheier that has rushed for over 1,000 yds his rookie season and has over 2,050 yds rush/rec his first 2 seasons in the NFL. I don’t see him continuing to get as many balls as he has BUT he’s there and can certainly give Bijan a huge breather every 3rd drive we’ll say.
MoProj - 250-1,250-8 + 50/450/4 and that’s going to give us 1,700 rush/rec and 12 TDs. I think he can go much higher if the Offense is flourishing. Bijan can elevate to a Marshall Faulk like role if Atlanta does this right.
Offensive Line-Drew Dalman at Center and Chris Lindstrom at RG make a very strong force inside along the IOL for the Falcons. Lindstrom is the #1 rated RG overall in the NFL in ‘23, Dalman ranked 3rd overall at Center, he’s a stronger run blocker than pass blocking, still he’s one of the best that is going to hike the ball to his QB, good news for Cousins. Bergeron at Left Guard rated 38th overall out of 79 ranked RG/LG, he's middle of the road but that's gonna happen. You typically never have 4-5 guys all rated in the Top 5-10 on the OL, just doesn't happen but if you have 2-3 strong OL, raises the level of the more average players along the OL.
Without boring some of you that could care less about the OL, but you should take note of both LT/RT for the QBs you draft, they help set up the outside of the pocket and allow the QB the extra time they need to get the ball down the field so it’s not so much dink n dunk. Mathews at Left Tackle is solid but not quite what he once was. He ranked 30th out of 81 last year on PFF, McGary the Right Tackle was 20th overall out of 81. Could Atlanta benefit from one of the premier Tackles in the Draft that maybe falls in their lap? I would argue YES they can improve but when you factor in their other needs on defense, they won’t likely be bringing in new faces along the OL. This unit is likely a Top 10 rated line as they enter the 2024 season. And that’s going to bring me to the Quarterback.
QB- Kirk Cousins is coming off an achilles tear, I believe Dan Marino tore his in the early 90s, was never quite the same after that. Cousins doesn’t have near the size of a Marino and I do have some doubts BUT modern medicine has changed the way we view a lot of injuries, I just think Cousins could have some challenges his 1st season back. I’m not as excited about drafting him vs the other skill positions but you need Cousins to make all of this work smoothly. I probably would shy away from making any hard number projection on Kirk, but all that said he has a shot at being a Top 10 QB this year even going from a Justin Jefferson to a Drake London, there is a lot of good things for Kirk in this offense and he might have the best RB of his career lined up behind him to take a lot of pressure off his decisions at QB.
Overall Outlook: I would be a buyer in this Offense in most redraft leagues.
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