TE draft strategy (1 Viewer)

[menobrown]

Anyone like Ty Conklin this season?

He's been a consistent 60/600 type for 3 years running and I really don't see that changing. So meh, solid depth piece.

ETA-he's also amazingly got exactly 87 targets 3 straight years.

You don't see it changing at all with Rodgers at QB?

Nope.

That 87 target amount that Conklin's been steady hitting is right in line with most targeted TE seasons in Rodgers career, granted some of them were in one less game. Finley had 92 and 87, Graham earned 89 one year, Richard Rodgers came in at 85 one year. For the length of his career that's for sure not what I'd term as a QB who loves to heavily utilize his TE's.

Highest in the 3 full seasons of the Hackett/Rodgers pairing was 59 for Tonyan, despite what was wild efficiency that season.

I've always felt a part of that was that Rodgers mobility afforded him patience in the pocket and he has a more aggressive mindset about where he wants to go with the ball. Is it possible a 40 year old coming off an achilles is less mobile and thus relies more on safety valve type options? Yes, possible, just not what I see happening to a meaningful degree and frankly I think the odds are higher his targets decrease, perhaps a little efficiency increase.

It's not dissimilar to the concerns I've had about Breece Hall's passing game usage curtailing and he's of course a stud. But last year's Jet's had less options in the passing game, a worse OL, and yes worse Qb's but those Qb's wanted to get the ball out of their hands, they were more inclined to take the layups or easier options in the passing game.

 

[Cowboysfan8]

Any thoughts on Okonkwo?

The Titans aren’t exactly loaded at WR

 

[RaidersAreOne]

I typically avoid TE's early for some reason and I have no clue why. I should probably smarten up and take one earlier than I prefer this next draft.

I hit WW gold last year with McBride.

 

[fightingillini]

Anyone like Ty Conklin this season?

He's been a consistent 60/600 type for 3 years running and I really don't see that changing. So meh, solid depth piece.

ETA-he's also amazingly got exactly 87 targets 3 straight years.

You don't see it changing at all with Rodgers at QB?

Not sure. The Jets are going to run the ball lot, and Conklin is going the 4th option to Wilson, Williams and Hall.

90 targets seems reasonable so 60 catches is a good number. The real question is what is his TD potential.

Good TE2, not seeing the upside for TE1.

 

[BLOCKED_PUNT]

Any thoughts on Okonkwo?

The Titans aren’t exactly loaded at WR

I mean, Ridley and Hopkins and Boyd will get theirs. And Pollard/Spears will featured. He seems to have good chemistry with Levis but I think there's going to be alot of competition for targets. Of course, the other side of the coin is that defenses zeo in on the others leaving Okonkwo open or in a man coverage but thats being very very optimistic. He's not someone I'd draft as a starter or anything but as a depth peice? sure why not.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

I think this thread is sleeping on 2 TE prospects that could crack bottom TE1/mid TE2 value, and offer good platoon TE rotations.

Tyler Conklin NYJ - We all know Rodgers appreciates quality receiving targets. After Watson, Mike Williams might not be his type of WR and offers Conklin valuable target share. NYJ Offense could be a Top 12 Offense in Yards/Scoring and Conklin offers value to A Rodgers.

Noah Fant Sea - Seattle has a new OC and is looking at more distribution of targets. 26 yo Fant was a 1st round pick in 2019 and has shown athleticism and effort this preseason. Camp reports indicated his talent is showing and offers valuable options to Geno to take advantage of his talent

For me, Jake Ferguson Dal is a solid TE1 value due to targets available and expected more passing due to weak RB room.

Conklin is a good suggestion. IMO the Platonic ideal for a TE is something like 60/600/6 (insert joke about Mark of the Beast). If Rodgers stays healthy and the offense isn't a dumpster fire, I could see Conklin putting up those numbers. For a late-round dart throw, that would be great.

I'm out on Fant. He's had too many opportunities and has never put it together. Plus, there's almost no way he's better than fourth in targets

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

I sense that for a lot of us, our subconscious goal is to avoid having to stress about TE. The position can be such a dumpster fire that streaming generally sucks, and even if your underlying logic is sound you can still end up with a lot of 2/14/0 games.

And that's totally legit! If you simply don't want the agita, I can respect that! What I would say, though, is that a) a mid-round TE strategy is hardly foolproof, and b) if you want to prioritize that, at least be aware of the opportunity cost of passing on RB/WRs in those middle rounds. This year especially, that area seems particularly strong. There are still a few classic dead-zone RBs (both Rachaad and Zamir White) but there are also a lot of talented RB2s. And there's always value to be found in the "WR3 and the Infinite Sadness" tier

 

[urbanhack]

Any thoughts on Okonkwo?

The Titans aren’t exactly loaded at WR

Check the Titans TE thread. Bri has some good stuff in there.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

So my last draft of the year, and my home IDP league is drafting on Saturday. We use CBS as a host, because we've always used CBS as a host. It's an oooooold league, and folks are comfortable with it.

Anyway, just checked on a whim. Taysom Hill is a QB. And only a QB.

 

[shadrap]

So my last draft of the year, and my home IDP league is drafting on Saturday. We use CBS as a host, because we've always used CBS as a host. It's an oooooold league, and folks are comfortable with it.

Anyway, just checked on a whim. Taysom Hill is a QB. And only a QB.

Auction coming up where he is listed as TE(RTsports). Wondering where you would have him in TE rankings? Top 15??

 

[Manster]

I finally got Kelce on my team! I've never drafted him before. He's 34, and slowing down obviously. He slipped enough for me to find value in drafting him. I think the Chiefs are going to be very motivated to make the 3-peat run. One more ride for Travis.

 

[sheerterror]

Anyone like Ty Conklin this season?

He's been a consistent 60/600 type for 3 years running and I really don't see that changing. So meh, solid depth piece.

ETA-he's also amazingly got exactly 87 targets 3 straight years.

You don't see it changing at all with Rodgers at QB?

Nope.

That 87 target amount that Conklin's been steady hitting is right in line with most targeted TE seasons in Rodgers career, granted some of them were in one less game. Finley had 92 and 87, Graham earned 89 one year, Richard Rodgers came in at 85 one year. For the length of his career that's for sure not what I'd term as a QB who loves to heavily utilize his TE's.

Highest in the 3 full seasons of the Hackett/Rodgers pairing was 59 for Tonyan, despite what was wild efficiency that season.

I've always felt a part of that was that Rodgers mobility afforded him patience in the pocket and he has a more aggressive mindset about where he wants to go with the ball. Is it possible a 40 year old coming off an achilles is less mobile and thus relies more on safety valve type options? Yes, possible, just not what I see happening to a meaningful degree and frankly I think the odds are higher his targets decrease, perhaps a little efficiency increase.

It's not dissimilar to the concerns I've had about Breece Hall's passing game usage curtailing and he's of course a stud. But last year's Jet's had less options in the passing game, a worse OL, and yes worse Qb's but those Qb's wanted to get the ball out of their hands, they were more inclined to take the layups or easier options in the passing game.

Well said. Couple that with the *thought* that the Jets could be playing with some leads late - between Rodgers, a strong running game, strong D and soft schedule - I can't see Conklin all of a sudden eclipsing his (or Rodgers') high water mark for TE targets.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Anyone like Ty Conklin this season?

He's been a consistent 60/600 type for 3 years running and I really don't see that changing. So meh, solid depth piece.

ETA-he's also amazingly got exactly 87 targets 3 straight years.

You don't see it changing at all with Rodgers at QB?

Nope.

That 87 target amount that Conklin's been steady hitting is right in line with most targeted TE seasons in Rodgers career, granted some of them were in one less game. Finley had 92 and 87, Graham earned 89 one year, Richard Rodgers came in at 85 one year. For the length of his career that's for sure not what I'd term as a QB who loves to heavily utilize his TE's.

Highest in the 3 full seasons of the Hackett/Rodgers pairing was 59 for Tonyan, despite what was wild efficiency that season.

I've always felt a part of that was that Rodgers mobility afforded him patience in the pocket and he has a more aggressive mindset about where he wants to go with the ball. Is it possible a 40 year old coming off an achilles is less mobile and thus relies more on safety valve type options? Yes, possible, just not what I see happening to a meaningful degree and frankly I think the odds are higher his targets decrease, perhaps a little efficiency increase.

It's not dissimilar to the concerns I've had about Breece Hall's passing game usage curtailing and he's of course a stud. But last year's Jet's had less options in the passing game, a worse OL, and yes worse Qb's but those Qb's wanted to get the ball out of their hands, they were more inclined to take the layups or easier options in the passing game.

Well said. Couple that with the *thought* that the Jets could be playing with some leads late - between Rodgers, a strong running game, strong D and soft schedule - I can't see Conklin all of a sudden eclipsing his (or Rodgers') high water mark for TE targets.

Agree with all of this, but I will opine that with a more open defense due to the threat of the bare minimum of competence from the Jets QB position, Conklin might be able to do more with the same # of targets.

A few more receptions due to coverage mismatches (assuming Mike Williams stays healthy, ha ha ha) and maybe a bit more after the catch.

Conklin could still be a better FF TE than he’s been on the same number of opportunities.

Also, as I mentioned earlier upthread, I do see his opportunities potentially increasing with a more competent offense - ARod should be able to lead more and longer offensive drives, where the likes of Zach Wilson, Rypien, Boyle, & Siemien were 3-and-out machines. More time with the offense on the field = more passing = maybe a few more targets.

And maybe, just maybe ARod won’t be growing deep as much as he used to, and will instead rely on underneath passing a little more.

It doesn’t seem that far-fetched to suggest. But it’s not a lock either.

 

[Cowboysfan8]

So my last draft of the year, and my home IDP league is drafting on Saturday. We use CBS as a host, because we've always used CBS as a host. It's an oooooold league, and folks are comfortable with it.

Anyway, just checked on a whim. Taysom Hill is a QB. And only a QB.

So dumb

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Sleeper - Mike Gesicki - Cincinnati Bengals
Dude went over 700 yds receiving in '20 and '21, then fell out of favor with the new HC and then was in New England last season
6th different starting QB in 5-6 years for Mike, finally paired with a true franchise QB
We've seen other guys have their best seasons at TE for the Bengals in recent years, Gesicki might be the next one to experience some success.
He is starting but does not block very well so i think they will use him more in passing situations

Sleeper - Mike Gesicki - Cincinnati Bengals
Dude went over 700 yds receiving in '20 and '21, then fell out of favor with the new HC and then was in New England last season
6th different starting QB in 5-6 years for Mike, finally paired with a true franchise QB
We've seen other guys have their best seasons at TE for the Bengals in recent years, Gesicki might be the next one to experience some success.
He is starting but does not block very well so i think they will use him more in passing situations

"Their best season" <> "Good fantasy season".

I've seen no evidence that Taylor/Burrow have a particularly TE-friendly offense. And MG has zero chance of being Top 2 in targets

53/700/6TD...if he can beat that his career year would be pretty decent for most GMs
73/780/2 was another season total, this actually might be more in PPR

His resume is better than Uzomah and Hayden Hurst
He's undrafted in many leagues, sleeper IMO

He might stay sleeping, that's possible but I think he's worth a look
What are the Bengals running out at WR3? Gesicki lines up in the slot a lot and has Chase plus Higgins taking coverage away from him
My guess is he might be wide open sometimes

Just a quick update...
6th overall at Tight End after Week 2
13 targets with Higgins not playing and Chase complaining about an extension that he now says he doesn't want
7/91 last week vs the Chiefs on 9 targets
Monday Night Football game vs Washington with a very soft secondary

 

[fightingillini]

The correct strategy was to wait and take Brock Bowers.

Kelce looks like he's toast. Maybe Pacheco's injury helps the cause.
LaPorta looks to be a victim to Jameson Williams' emergence.
McBride should be OK, but we will see how it plays out in AZ with Harrison potentially being a stud WR
Andrews value is taking a hit from Likely and the BAL offense not looking great.
Pitts sucks.
Kittle has been solid but he tends to go hot and cold
Kincaid has been a victim of BUF run first offense and the emergence of James Cook.
Engram is banged up and JAX has sucked on offense.
Njoku is banged up and Watson sucks at QB.

TE is such a wasteland this year.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

The correct strategy was to wait and take Brock Bowers.

Kelce looks like he's toast. Maybe Pacheco's injury helps the cause.
LaPorta looks to be a victim to Jameson Williams' emergence.
McBride should be OK, but we will see how it plays out in AZ with Harrison potentially being a stud WR
Andrews value is taking a hit from Likely and the BAL offense not looking great.
Pitts sucks.
Kittle has been solid but he tends to go hot and cold
Kincaid has been a victim of BUF run first offense and the emergence of James Cook.
Engram is banged up and JAX has sucked on offense.
Njoku is banged up and Watson sucks at QB.

TE is such a wasteland this year.

And Ferguson is hurt. Don't forget that.

 

[TampaMike19]

Correct strategy was never to play fantasy football this year.

 

[the spanker]

The correct strategy was to wait and take Brock Bowers.

Kelce looks like he's toast. Maybe Pacheco's injury helps the cause.
LaPorta looks to be a victim to Jameson Williams' emergence.
McBride should be OK, but we will see how it plays out in AZ with Harrison potentially being a stud WR
Andrews value is taking a hit from Likely and the BAL offense not looking great.
Pitts sucks.
Kittle has been solid but he tends to go hot and cold
Kincaid has been a victim of BUF run first offense and the emergence of James Cook.
Engram is banged up and JAX has sucked on offense.
Njoku is banged up and Watson sucks at QB.

TE is such a wasteland this year.

And Ferguson is hurt. Don't forget that.

Ah, but it was only a one-week injury, he plays this week and his backup got feed the ball!

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

The correct strategy was to wait and take Brock Bowers.

Kelce looks like he's toast. Maybe Pacheco's injury helps the cause.
LaPorta looks to be a victim to Jameson Williams' emergence.
McBride should be OK, but we will see how it plays out in AZ with Harrison potentially being a stud WR
Andrews value is taking a hit from Likely and the BAL offense not looking great.
Pitts sucks.
Kittle has been solid but he tends to go hot and cold
Kincaid has been a victim of BUF run first offense and the emergence of James Cook.
Engram is banged up and JAX has sucked on offense.
Njoku is banged up and Watson sucks at QB.

TE is such a wasteland this year.

Not saying these are all wrong, but most of them are reactions to what happened in a single game or two